证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一） 一、业绩增长：A 股盈利回升转正，净利率是主要驱动 1.1 业绩增长：A 股盈利 24Q4 进一步下探、25Q1 回升转正 ——全 A/全 A 非金融业绩增速 2024 年四季度进一步下探，2025 年一 季度回升转正。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 归母净利润同比分别为 3.58%/4.28%，环比分别变动 5.94/17.26pct；全 A/全 A 非金融 24Q4 归 母净利润同比分别为-2.36%/-12.99%，环比分别变动-2.30/-5.75pct。 ——上市板看，主板业绩保持韧性、创业板业绩弹性较强；宽基指数看， 大盘业绩增速小幅回落，中小盘盈利明显修复；行业风格看，科技 TMT、 可选消费、中游制造业绩占优，中游制造、科技 TMT、上游资源增速改善。 1.2 营收增长：A 股营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增 ——全 A/全 A 非金融营收增速连续两期修复，但仍小幅负增。全 A/全 A 非金融 25Q1 营业收入同比分别为-0 ...

风险提示：行业需求不及预期、原材料价格波动风险、行业价格战风险。 增持（维持） 汽车 特斯拉及新势力：小鹏零跑新车亮眼，车企加码智驾与机器人 特斯拉：行业竞争激烈，汽车销量承压影响业绩。2024 年至今，全球新能 源市场整体向好，国内受益政策补贴、新车型持续增加，自主新车数量多 且定价激进，国内新能源车增长势头较强，欧洲市场在碳排法规推动下有 改善的趋势，美国电动化进程持续推进，特斯拉近期仅推出 modely 焕新 版，且调价力度弱于自主品牌，销量承受压力，2024&2025q1，特斯拉交 付 179/34 万辆，同比-1.1%/-13%，其中国内 65.7/17.28 万辆，同比+9%/- 21.8%。受降价促销影响，2024&2025Q1asp 为 4.2/4 万美元，同降 7%/8%；收入 977/193 亿美元，同比+1%/-9%，毛利率 17.9%/16.3%， 净利率 8.1%/4.8%，单车盈利 0.46/0.29 万美元，同降 27%/29%。展望 2025 年，焕新版 model Y 已开启密集交付，后续有计划推出经济型小车 及 cybercab 等，有望带动销量提升。 新势力：小鹏、零跑新 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the automotive sector [4] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, with Tesla's sales under pressure impacting its performance. However, the global new energy market is showing overall improvement, particularly in China due to policy subsidies and the introduction of new models [1][9][12] - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are launching multiple new models targeting the 100,000 to 300,000 yuan market, leading to significant sales growth and improved profitability [2][28] - The trend towards intelligent driving and robotics is accelerating, with companies like Tesla and Xpeng making significant advancements in autonomous driving technology and robot production [3][26] Summary by Sections Tesla - Tesla's sales are under pressure, with Q1 2024 deliveries expected to be 179,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while domestic deliveries are projected at 65,700 units, an increase of 9% [1][9] - The average selling price (ASP) for Q1 2024 is expected to be $42,000, down 7% year-on-year, with revenue projected at $97.7 billion, a slight increase of 1% [10][12] - The company is focusing on the launch of the refreshed Model Y and plans to introduce more affordable models, which may help boost sales in 2025 [10][12] New Entrants - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are seeing substantial sales growth, with 2024 sales projections of 50,100 for Li Auto, 29,400 for Leap Motor, and 19,000 for Xpeng, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 104%, and 34% respectively [2][30] - The profitability of these new entrants is improving due to economies of scale and cost reductions in the supply chain, with Xpeng reducing losses and Leap Motor achieving positive financial results [2][30] Intelligent Driving and Robotics - By April 2025, Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to be implemented in millions of vehicles, with significant advancements in autonomous driving capabilities [3][26] - Companies are increasingly investing in robotics, with Tesla planning to produce 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to integrating robotics with automotive technology [3][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the new vehicle cycle and emphasizes the potential of companies like Xpeng, Leap Motor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Tesla for investment opportunities [39]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 润泽科技（300442.SZ） 改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势未改 投资建议：我们预计公司 2025-2027 年收入为 63/79/96 亿元，归母净利润为 26.8/33.0/39.9 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 31/25/21 倍。公司是园区级数据中心龙 头，未来有望凭借其前瞻性的布局充分受益于 AI 迅速发展带来的智算中心需 求，但鉴于公司由于会计核算调整以及机房改造可能造成短期业绩承压，我们 下调公司的业绩预测，维持 买入"评级。 风险提示：上架率不及预期、市场竞争风险、AIGC 进展不达预期。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,351 | 4,365 | 6,307 | 7,906 | 9,580 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 60.3 | 0.3 | 44.5 | 25.4 | 21.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1 ...

改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势未改 事件：公司发布 2024 年财报，24 全年实现总营业收入 44 亿元，同比增长 0.3%；归母净利润 17.9 亿元，同比增长 1.6%；扣非归母净利润 17.8 亿元， 同比增长 4.1%。单季度来看，24Q4 公司实现营收 9 亿元，同比下滑 46%； 归母净利润 2.8 亿元，同比下滑 57%；25Q1 实现营收 12 亿元，同比增长 21%，归母净利润 4.3 亿元，同比下滑 9.3%。 收入确认审慎性调整+机房改造，造成短期业绩承压。公司业绩短期承压，主 要因会计核算方式调整、机房改造等影响：1）AIDC 业务收入确认方法由" 总 额法"调整为" 净额法"，追溯调减前三季度营收 29.5 亿元，全年 AIDC 业务 收入 14.5 亿元，同比增长 21%，占比提升至 33%（较去年提高 5.7 个百分 点），毛利率提升至 52%"（较去年提高 19 个百分点），业务结构更趋优质；2） 旧机房改造期间客户下架导致 IDC 收入减少，全年 IDC 业务营收 29 亿元，同 比下滑 8%，毛利率下滑 7 个百分点至 47.5%，此外，机柜阶段性暂停计费， 但折 ...

市场短期补涨后或有回档 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 量化周报 市场短期补涨后或有回档。节前（4.28-4.30），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.49%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。 节日期间，海外及港股市场均出现了不同程度的上涨，我们认为受此影响， A 股市场短期或将出现补涨，当下我们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市 场的底部区间已然探明，市场补涨完成后将会选择方向，我们仍倾向于市 场再次回档，具体原因如下：1、本轮回调从高点到低点指数调整幅度均已 超过 10%，有些指数甚至超过 20%，调整幅度基本充分；2、大部分规模 指数的日线级别下跌只走了 1 浪结构，时间和结构不够充分；3、28 个中 信一级行业中，仍有 8 个行业处于日线级别上涨中，而处于日线下跌的 20 个行业中，9 个行业日线下跌只走了 1 浪结构，结构不够充分。中期来看， 上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚 开始；此外，已有 21 个行业 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued oscillating market pattern influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts, with a focus on the importance of policy effectiveness in driving market momentum [1][9][10] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering sectors related to domestic consumption and real estate as policy support emerges [2][10] Group 2 - The report recommends specific stocks, including New Steel Co., which is expected to benefit from external empowerment and high-end product structure, projecting significant profit recovery [3][11] - Zhongyan Dadi is highlighted for its competitive edge in geotechnical engineering, particularly in new infrastructure projects, with expected profit growth driven by nuclear power and water conservancy projects [13][14] - Yinlong Co. is noted for its rapid increase in market share and profitability in the prestressed steel and track slab sectors, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 30% in profits [17][18] - Daikin Heavy Industries is recognized for its strong performance in the offshore wind sector, with significant revenue growth from exports and a focus on new energy projects [19][20] - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to leverage its integrated layout for cost advantages, with projected net profits of 4.8 billion to 6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [22][25] - New Yisheng is projected to see continued growth driven by the demand for 800G products, with net profits expected to reach 6.89 billion to 12.02 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [26][27] - Shanxi Fenjiu is anticipated to maintain stable growth in revenue and profits, with a focus on high-end product lines [29][31] - Yanjing Beer is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and strong performance of its flagship product U8, with projected net profits increasing significantly [33][34] - Bairun Co. is positioned for accelerated growth due to its whisky product line and pre-mixed drinks, with net profits expected to rise from 860 million to 1.12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [35][36] - Huhua Co. is projected to experience significant growth driven by the booming civil explosives industry and expansion into new markets [37][38] - Weir Shares is noted for achieving record revenue in Q1 2025, driven by the acceleration of automotive intelligence and high-end smartphone products [40]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：拥挤度&反转维度分数显著上升 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比有所上升，宏观基本面中性偏多， 市场的资金&趋势信号有所弱化信号偏空，拥挤度&反转指标显著偏多，综 合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打分为 0.23 分，整体为中性偏多观点。 当前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币方向、货币强度、信用方向均发出看空信号，信用强 度发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信号。 经济面。本周增长方向、通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，当前 经济面得分为 0.75 分，综合来看发出看多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的打分均上升，当前市 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 2025 05 05 年 月 日 银行研究框架及24A&25Q1业绩综述： 负债成本改善力度加大，息差降幅有望继续收窄 — 如 何 看 财 务 报 表 、 经 营 情 况 、 识 别 风 险 分析师 马婷婷 分析师 陈惠琴 执业证书编号：S0680519040001 执业证书编号：S0680524010001 邮箱：matingting@gszq.com 邮箱：chenhuiqin@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 上市银行24A&25Q1业绩概览 图表1：上市银行24A&25Q1业绩情况 | 2025Q1增速 较上季度变化（pc) 2025Q1增速 | | | 较上季度变化（pc) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利 息 | 手续费及 | 其他非 利 息 | 手续费及 | 其他非 | 环 比 | | 拨 备 环 比 | | 营 收 PPOP 利 润 营 收 PPOP 利 润 净收入 佣金净收入 | | 息收入 净收入 | 佣金净收入 | 息收入 不良率 | （bp） | | 覆盖率 （ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.07%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a decrease of 15.87% year-on-year. Notably, the revenue for Q4 2024 was 787 million yuan, up 51.65% year-on-year, and the net profit for the same quarter was 84 million yuan, exceeding the total net profit of the first three quarters [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 574 million yuan, a significant increase of 109.02% year-on-year, with a net profit of 62 million yuan, marking a staggering increase of 1104.89% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates substantial growth in revenue from data centers and semiconductor temperature control solutions [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's liquid temperature control equipment revenue reached 1.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.65%, with a gross margin of 21.22%, down 3.93 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from energy storage temperature control was approximately 1.176 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its client base in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, including notable clients such as Northern Huachuang and Jing Sheng Machinery [2]. - The financial projections for the company indicate expected net profits of 288 million yuan, 425 million yuan, and 608 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 87.6%, 47.7%, and 43.1% [4][5]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1.845 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 83.1%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.404 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 57.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.91 yuan, with a significant increase to 1.70 yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.1%, with projections of 8.5% and 9.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10].