AI 与油气基建新秀，迈入增长快车道 博盈特焊(301468) 博盈特焊首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 李启文(分析师) | 021-38038435 | liqiwen@gtht.com | S0880524060001 | 本报告导读： 切入 HRSG 发力 AI 新基建，布局油气复合管进入油气蓝海，堆焊龙头再启新征程。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 604 | 460 | 551 | 1,033 | 1,678 | | (+/-)% | 5.0% | -23.8% | 19.6% | 87.6% | 62.4% | | 净利润(归母) | 13 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprise focusing on ADC combined with IO, with expectations for rapid growth following the approval of MRG003 [2]. - The product pipeline includes plans for international business development, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the company [2]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A is 368 million RMB, with a growth rate of 63%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 1,665 million RMB, with a growth rate of 38% [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of -411 million RMB in 2024A, improving to -29 million RMB by 2027E [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to improve from -10.04 in 2024A to -389.49 in 2027E, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to increase from 5.87 to 18.86 over the same period [4]. Company Overview - The company was established in January 2018 and focuses on innovative treatments for cancer, particularly targeted therapies and immunotherapies [13]. - The company has built a robust product pipeline through acquisitions and partnerships, including PD-1 antibodies and ADC drugs [13][15]. - The management team is experienced, with a high concentration of ownership, ensuring stability and strategic direction [15][19]. Market Potential - The global and Chinese cancer immunotherapy market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.3% and 25.1% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [30]. - The PD-1 therapy market in China is anticipated to reach 582 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.5% from 2020 to 2025 [33]. Product Pipeline and Development - The company has multiple tumor product pipelines covering immunotherapy, ADC targeted therapy, and oncolytic virus drugs [20]. - MRG003 is currently under NDA review for treating R/M NPC, with potential for significant market impact [22]. - The company is also exploring combination therapies with PD-1 antibodies, which may enhance treatment efficacy [20]. Sales Growth - The company's first commercial product, the PD-1 antibody, has seen rapid sales growth, achieving 300 million RMB in revenue in 2024, three times the revenue of 2023 [23][36]. - The company has expanded its sales network across 118 cities in China, enhancing its market presence [36].

承保投资共振，盈利大幅增长 中国财险(2328) ——中国财险 2025 年前三季度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国财险发布 2025 年前三季度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 40%-60%，主 要为承保利润及投资收益共同改善驱动，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：权益市场超预期回暖；费用率显著改善。 风险提示：大灾频发；长端利率下行；权益市场波动。 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 457,203 | 485,223 | 507,552 | 5 ...

Domestic Macro - On October 11, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - On October 12, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China's rare earth export controls do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be permitted [5][6] - On October 14, Premier Li Qiang hosted a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [5][6] - On October 15, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation, with a cumulative net injection of 400 billion yuan for the month [5][6] - On October 16, China expressed an open attitude regarding the possibility of new Sino-U.S. trade talks [5][6] Industry Policy - On October 10, the Ministry of Natural Resources released the "Guidelines for Revitalizing and Optimizing Urban Stock Space," indicating that revitalizing existing space will be a key task in future land use planning [6][18] - On October 10, the Financial Regulatory Authority issued a document to strengthen regulation of non-auto insurance businesses, focusing on issues such as irregular operations and irrational competition [6][18] - On October 11, the central bank solicited opinions on the "Management Measures for Identifying Beneficial Owners of Financial Institution Clients" [6][18] - On October 12, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued a plan to promote service-oriented manufacturing innovation [6][18] - On October 15, six departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, issued a "Three-Year Doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [6][18] Local Policy - On October 10, Shanghai adjusted the rules for the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy program [7][21] - On October 11, the Shanghai Municipal Government released measures to accelerate the cultivation of future industries, focusing on six key areas [7][21] - On October 12, the Hainan Provincial Government announced that the "Hainan Free Trade Port Tourism Regulations" will take effect on December 1, 2025, gradually relaxing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7][21] - On October 15, the second batch of Shanghai Free Trade Zone innovation zone construction plans was released [7][21] Overseas Dynamics - On October 10, China announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, starting to charge special port fees for U.S. vessels from October 14 [8] - On October 11, the global cryptocurrency market experienced a "black swan" event, with over 19 billion USD in liquidations in a single day [8] - On October 12, Chinese semiconductor assets worth 14.7 billion USD were frozen by the Dutch government [8] - On October 15, China filed a complaint with the WTO against India's electric vehicle and battery subsidy measures [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - In September, domestic heavy truck sales reached 106,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 83% and a month-on-month increase of 15% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in September were 21,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 258% and a month-on-month increase of 32% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the heavy truck sales will gradually recover due to economic recovery and the introduction of a "trade-in" policy in 2025, projecting sales of 1.067 million units for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, cumulative domestic heavy truck sales reached 821,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [4]. - The sales structure in September 2025 showed that semi-trailer trucks accounted for 50.9%, cargo trucks for 27.5%, and non-complete vehicles for 21.6% of total heavy truck sales [4]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in September was 20%, with semi-trailer trucks having a penetration rate of 36% [4]. - The report highlights that for annual average mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers, using natural gas is economically favorable for most time periods [4]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - In September, domestic new energy heavy truck sales were 19,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 180% and a month-on-month increase of 24% [4]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks in September was 18%, with a cumulative penetration rate of 15% for the first nine months of 2025 [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, CIMC Vehicles, Foton Motor, and FAW Jiefang [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is "Buy" [7][11] Core Insights - TSMC is experiencing strong demand for advanced processes, with a resilient gross margin. The company is currently in the early stages of the AI demand cycle [3][11] - The Q3 revenue in USD increased by 40.8% year-on-year to $33.1 billion, driven primarily by strong demand for advanced processes [11] - TSMC's Q4 guidance exceeds expectations, with projected revenue of $32.2 to $33.4 billion and a gross margin of 59% to 61% [11] - The company is optimistic about the AI growth prospects, noting that AI demand is stronger than three months ago [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million NTD): - 2023: 2,161,736 - 2024: 2,894,308 - 2025E: 3,797,927 - 2026E: 4,883,180 - 2027E: 6,154,275 - Gross profit and margin: - 2023: 1,175,111 (54%) - 2024: 1,624,354 (56%) - 2025E: 2,261,172 (60%) - 2026E: 2,969,389 (61%) - 2027E: 3,766,416 (61%) [5][11] - GAAP net profit (in million NTD): - 2023: 837,768 - 2024: 1,172,432 - 2025E: 1,681,698 - 2026E: 2,193,663 - 2027E: 2,751,997 [5][11] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted revenue forecasts for TSMC for FY2025E-FY2027E are 37,979/48,832/61,543 million NTD, with GAAP net profit forecasts of 16,817/21,937/27,520 million NTD [11] - The target price for TSMC's stock is set at $382 for FY2026, based on a PE ratio of 28x [11]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 32.32 CNY [5][11][15]. Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of advanced components for aviation engines, benefiting from strong global demand and industry chain shifts, with expected performance growth exceeding expectations [2][11][19]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the booming civil aviation market, with a projected market value of nearly 6.5 trillion USD over the next 20 years, leading to a significant increase in commercial aviation engine demand [11][19]. - The company has established strong relationships with major global engine manufacturers, enhancing its business prospects through advanced manufacturing techniques and customer loyalty [11][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 544 million CNY in 2023 to 1.522 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.2% [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 90 million CNY in 2023 to 313 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 29.4% [4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.35 CNY in 2023 to 1.21 CNY in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [4][12]. Business Overview - The company specializes in key components for aviation engines and medical orthopedic implants, having undertaken significant research and development projects in advanced manufacturing techniques [27][29]. - The company has established itself as a supplier to major international engine manufacturers, leveraging its expertise in precision forging technology [27][29]. - The company is expanding its business into the orthopedic implant sector, anticipating long-term demand growth due to an aging population and increasing joint replacement rates [11][19]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing global shift in the aviation industry supply chain, with a focus on deepening collaborations with domestic manufacturers [11][19]. - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with the company expected to capture a significant share of the growing market for commercial aviation engines [11][19]. - The company’s advanced manufacturing capabilities create high barriers to entry, ensuring a competitive advantage in the market [11][19].

Macroeconomic Insights - In September 2025, the total social financing (TSF) stock growth rate slightly decreased to 8.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month, with new TSF amounting to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan[5] - The M2 growth rate fell to 8.4% in September, compared to 8.8% previously, while M1 growth rebounded to 7.2% from 6.0%[6] - The loan balance decreased to a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, down from 6.8%[5] Credit and Financing Trends - New credit in September was 1.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, with both corporate and household loans continuing to decline[6] - Corporate short-term loans were the main support, reflecting a trend where local governments used short-term loans to settle debts owed to enterprises[6] - The issuance of government bonds slowed, reducing fiscal support for monetary growth, while corporate foreign exchange settlements also slowed down[7] Automotive Industry Performance - In September 2025, domestic heavy truck sales reached 106,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with September sales of 106,000 units representing an 83% increase year-on-year[19] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks is expected to reach 15% by 2025, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions[19] - The average retail price of passenger cars in September was 176,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%[26] Investment and Profitability Outlook - China Pacific Insurance expects a net profit growth of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by underwriting profits and investment income[33] - TSMC's revenue forecast for FY2025 is adjusted to 3.7979 trillion NTD, with a GAAP net profit of 1.6817 trillion NTD, reflecting strong demand for advanced processes[38] - Huatai Securities has launched the AI Zhilue APP, enhancing customer interaction and potentially increasing market share in brokerage services[41]

股 票 研 究 9 月乘用车零售价格回升，行业价格竞争相对温和 [Table_Industry] 汽车 ——汽车行业跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 潘若婵(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880125042232 | 本报告导读： 9 月国内乘用车价格、折扣均有改善趋势。我们维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《Figure03 正式发布，智元获数亿新订单》 2025.10.12 汽车《四季度新的成长动能有望持续涌现》 2025.10.07 汽车《人形机器人闪耀 2025 上海工博会》 2025.09.29 汽车《8 月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏》 2025.09.24 汽车《国内乘用车市场价格战持续放缓》 2025.09.21 [Table_Invest] 评 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.18 CNY, while the current price is 22.05 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The launch of the AI Zhangle APP is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of Huatai Securities in servicing long-tail customers, with the potential for a future profit model to further increase the company's profitability [2][13]. - The AI Zhangle APP offers an interactive experience with features such as real-time market monitoring and stock selection, which distinguishes it from traditional brokerage applications [13]. - The report anticipates that the AI Zhangle will improve customer acquisition and retention, thereby increasing the market share of the company's brokerage business [13]. Financial Summary - Projected operating revenue for 2023 is 36,578 million CNY, with a growth rate of 14.2%. By 2024, revenue is expected to rise to 41,466 million CNY, reflecting a 13.4% increase. However, a decline of 13.3% is anticipated in 2025, with revenue projected at 35,953 million CNY [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,751 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 15,351 million CNY in 2024, and further to 17,722 million CNY in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 15.4% for 2023-2024 [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 1.41 CNY in 2023 to 1.70 CNY in 2024, and reach 1.96 CNY in 2025 [4][14]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 199,042 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 14.74 CNY to 23.20 CNY [7]. - The company has a total equity of 200,134 million CNY, with a book value per share of 22.17 CNY and a current price-to-book ratio of 1.0 [8][14]. Comparative Analysis - The report suggests a valuation based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.33x, considering the differences with comparable companies [13]. - The projected net asset return (ROE) is expected to increase from 7.0% in 2023 to 8.7% in 2025, indicating improved profitability [4][14].