国泰海通晨报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【政策研究】："十五五"时期是我国迈向 2035 年远景目标的关键攻坚期，必须坚持以新质生 产力为核心驱动，通过科技创新和产业升级推动高质量发展，同时在复杂多变的国际环境中统筹 改革开放、安全发展与民生福祉。 2、【海外科技研究】海外科技：OpenAI 动作频频：再签 10GW 博通算力订单，布局底层硬件能 力；ChatGPT 接入沃尔玛、计划推出消费级硬件产品，持续探索更多商业模式。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 李明亮(分析师) 021-23185835 limingliang@gtht.com S0880525040001 纪尧(分析师) 021-23185836 jiyao@gtht.com S0880525040003 孙欣欣(分析师) 021-38038562 sunxinxin@g ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Life Insurance [7][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, projected to grow by 50%-70% year-on-year, primarily driven by substantial improvements in investment income and insurance service performance [2][14]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the recovering equity market, which has exceeded expectations, contributing to the company's improved profitability [4][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 405,040 million - 2024A: 528,567 million - 2025E: 665,291 million (26% increase from 2024A) - 2026E: 657,033 million (1% decrease from 2025E) - 2027E: 728,939 million (11% increase from 2026E) [5][15] - **Net Profit (Attributable to Shareholders)**: - 2023A: 51,184 million - 2024A: 106,935 million (109% increase from 2023A) - 2025E: 181,868 million (70% increase from 2024A) - 2026E: 192,657 million (6% increase from 2025E) - 2027E: 212,462 million (10% increase from 2026E) [5][15] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.81 - 2024A: 3.78 - 2025E: 6.43 - 2026E: 6.82 - 2027E: 7.52 [5][15] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 11% - 2024A: 21% - 2025E: 30% - 2026E: 27% - 2027E: 26% [5][15] Investment Drivers - The report emphasizes the strong growth in new business value (NBV), expected to increase by 30.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from proactive sales strategies before the adjustment of the "831" interest rate [14]. - The company has significantly increased its allocation to equity investments, with core equity assets reaching 969.123 billion, a 35.7% increase from the first half of 2024, which is expected to enhance investment returns [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a week-on-week increase in steel consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive trend in demand recovery post-holiday [5][12]. - Profit margins for steel production have decreased, with average gross margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils declining significantly [5][42]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Last week, the price of Shanghai rebar fell by 50 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 120 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.53% [8]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 15.82 million tons, down 1.15% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 780 CNY/ton, while futures prices fell by 24.5 CNY/ton to 771 CNY/ton [51]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 142.78 million tons, an increase of 1.81% [53]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production last week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons week-on-week [36]. - The average gross margin for rebar was 111.6 CNY/ton, down 34.3 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils, it was 21.6 CNY/ton, down 67.6 CNY/ton [42]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, with a gradual recovery expected in the construction and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5][8]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing inefficient production capacity and promoting high-quality development [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The main brand experienced low single-digit revenue growth in Q3, while the Saucony brand saw revenue growth exceeding 20%. The overall annual expectations remain unchanged [2][12]. - The report anticipates a healthy inventory level, projecting it to decrease to below 2 billion by the end of 2025. The dividend payout ratio is expected to be no less than 50% for the year [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 14,470 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a 6.6% increase from 2024. Net profit is expected to reach 1,373 million RMB, a 10.8% increase from the previous year [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 10.9 in 2025, with a target price of 8.74 HKD based on a 15X PE for 2026 [12][15]. - The financial ratios indicate a projected ROE of 14.6% and a sales net profit margin of 9.49% for 2025 [13].

证 券 研 究 报 告 金 融 工 程 高频选股因子周报（20251013- 20251017） 低频选股因子周报（2025.10.10-2025.10.17） 2025.10.18 上周估值因子表现较好，本年中证 2000 指数增强 策略超额收益为 23.32% 2025.10.14 高频选股因子周报（20251009-20251010） 2025.10.12 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251012） 2025.10.12 行业主题 ETF 流动性月报（2025.09） 2025.10.10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 高频因子继续回撤，多粒度因子表现有所反弹。AI 增强组 合持续反弹，严约束 1000 增强组合超额创新高。 本报告导读： 上周（特指 20251013-20251017，下同）高频因子继续回撤，多粒度因子表现有所反 弹。AI 增强组合持续反弹，严约束 1000 增强组合超额创新高。 投资要点： 金融工程 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.20 | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the humanoid robot industry [1]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is witnessing rapid commercialization, with leading domestic companies launching new products and securing significant orders. The focus should be on event-driven fluctuations in industry sentiment in the short term, while long-term attention should be on high-quality companies with a clear position in the supply chain [5][6]. - The launch of the ZhiYuan Robot's G2 model marks a significant step in the application of interactive embodied intelligence technology in the automotive parts manufacturing sector, enhancing the industry's smart upgrade [5][6]. - The first batch of G2 robots will be deployed in the production line of Junsheng Electronics, aiming to improve production efficiency and reduce operational errors through human-machine collaboration [5][6]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - ZhiYuan Robot and Junpu Intelligent held a launch event for the G2 robot, which is set to transform automotive manufacturing with its interactive capabilities [3][5]. - UBTECH secured a major contract worth 126 million yuan for the Walker humanoid robot, bringing its total orders for the year to over 630 million yuan, leading the global commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6]. Company Performance Forecast and Financial Valuation - The report includes performance forecasts and financial valuations for several companies in the humanoid robot sector, all rated as "Accumulate": - Meihu Co., Ltd. (603319.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.75 yuan, with a PE ratio of 48 [6]. - Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.55 yuan, with a PE ratio of 57 [6]. - Top Group (601689.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 yuan, with a PE ratio of 35 [6]. - Zhaomin Technology (301000.SZ): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.78 yuan, with a PE ratio of 56 [6]. - Junsheng Electronics (600699.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.12 yuan, with a PE ratio of 26 [6]. - Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.37 yuan, with a PE ratio of 28 [6].

AI 与油气基建新秀，迈入增长快车道 博盈特焊(301468) 博盈特焊首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 李启文(分析师) | 021-38038435 | liqiwen@gtht.com | S0880524060001 | 本报告导读： 切入 HRSG 发力 AI 新基建，布局油气复合管进入油气蓝海，堆焊龙头再启新征程。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 604 | 460 | 551 | 1,033 | 1,678 | | (+/-)% | 5.0% | -23.8% | 19.6% | 87.6% | 62.4% | | 净利润(归母) | 13 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprise focusing on ADC combined with IO, with expectations for rapid growth following the approval of MRG003 [2]. - The product pipeline includes plans for international business development, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the company [2]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A is 368 million RMB, with a growth rate of 63%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 1,665 million RMB, with a growth rate of 38% [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of -411 million RMB in 2024A, improving to -29 million RMB by 2027E [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to improve from -10.04 in 2024A to -389.49 in 2027E, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to increase from 5.87 to 18.86 over the same period [4]. Company Overview - The company was established in January 2018 and focuses on innovative treatments for cancer, particularly targeted therapies and immunotherapies [13]. - The company has built a robust product pipeline through acquisitions and partnerships, including PD-1 antibodies and ADC drugs [13][15]. - The management team is experienced, with a high concentration of ownership, ensuring stability and strategic direction [15][19]. Market Potential - The global and Chinese cancer immunotherapy market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.3% and 25.1% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [30]. - The PD-1 therapy market in China is anticipated to reach 582 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.5% from 2020 to 2025 [33]. Product Pipeline and Development - The company has multiple tumor product pipelines covering immunotherapy, ADC targeted therapy, and oncolytic virus drugs [20]. - MRG003 is currently under NDA review for treating R/M NPC, with potential for significant market impact [22]. - The company is also exploring combination therapies with PD-1 antibodies, which may enhance treatment efficacy [20]. Sales Growth - The company's first commercial product, the PD-1 antibody, has seen rapid sales growth, achieving 300 million RMB in revenue in 2024, three times the revenue of 2023 [23][36]. - The company has expanded its sales network across 118 cities in China, enhancing its market presence [36].

承保投资共振，盈利大幅增长 中国财险(2328) ——中国财险 2025 年前三季度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国财险发布 2025 年前三季度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 40%-60%，主 要为承保利润及投资收益共同改善驱动，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：权益市场超预期回暖；费用率显著改善。 风险提示：大灾频发；长端利率下行；权益市场波动。 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 457,203 | 485,223 | 507,552 | 5 ...

Domestic Macro - On October 11, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - On October 12, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China's rare earth export controls do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be permitted [5][6] - On October 14, Premier Li Qiang hosted a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [5][6] - On October 15, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation, with a cumulative net injection of 400 billion yuan for the month [5][6] - On October 16, China expressed an open attitude regarding the possibility of new Sino-U.S. trade talks [5][6] Industry Policy - On October 10, the Ministry of Natural Resources released the "Guidelines for Revitalizing and Optimizing Urban Stock Space," indicating that revitalizing existing space will be a key task in future land use planning [6][18] - On October 10, the Financial Regulatory Authority issued a document to strengthen regulation of non-auto insurance businesses, focusing on issues such as irregular operations and irrational competition [6][18] - On October 11, the central bank solicited opinions on the "Management Measures for Identifying Beneficial Owners of Financial Institution Clients" [6][18] - On October 12, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued a plan to promote service-oriented manufacturing innovation [6][18] - On October 15, six departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, issued a "Three-Year Doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [6][18] Local Policy - On October 10, Shanghai adjusted the rules for the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy program [7][21] - On October 11, the Shanghai Municipal Government released measures to accelerate the cultivation of future industries, focusing on six key areas [7][21] - On October 12, the Hainan Provincial Government announced that the "Hainan Free Trade Port Tourism Regulations" will take effect on December 1, 2025, gradually relaxing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7][21] - On October 15, the second batch of Shanghai Free Trade Zone innovation zone construction plans was released [7][21] Overseas Dynamics - On October 10, China announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, starting to charge special port fees for U.S. vessels from October 14 [8] - On October 11, the global cryptocurrency market experienced a "black swan" event, with over 19 billion USD in liquidations in a single day [8] - On October 12, Chinese semiconductor assets worth 14.7 billion USD were frozen by the Dutch government [8] - On October 15, China filed a complaint with the WTO against India's electric vehicle and battery subsidy measures [8]