Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

25 年业绩扭亏为盈，海外储能业务弹性较大 固德威(688390) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 吴志鹏(分析师) | 021-23215736 | wuzhipeng@gtht.com | S0880525070004 | 本报告导读： 25 年业绩扭亏为盈，26-28 年具备较高成长性。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 7,353 | 6,738 | 8,455 | 11,987 | 14,472 | | (+/-)% | 56.1% | -8.4% | 25.5% | 41.8% | 20.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 852 | -62 | 143 | 717 ...

白银：不可或缺的 AI 金属 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 白银行业深度专题 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S0880525040114 | 本报告导读： 白银两大属性形成强烈共振：商品属性上，白银工业需求占比升至近 60%，新兴领 域成为增长核心；金融属性上，全球流动性宽松环境下，与黄金形成联动，成为资 金避险优选。长期视角看，光伏、新能源汽车、人工智能等领域用银量增加，供需 缺口或将持续存在，为白银价格上涨提供动力。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026.02.09 有色金属《鹰派扰动，价格 ...

量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260220） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 中盘股或先开启上行趋势 本报告导读： 从技术面来看，高频资金流模型继续显示各大宽基指数信号依旧为负向，但偏向左 侧布局的情绪模型信号转正。结合春节后的日历效应，我们认为，以中证 500 指数 为首的中盘股或先开启上行趋势。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 曹君豪(分析师) | | | 021-23185657 | | | caojunhao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040094 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 周 报 高频选股因子周报（20260209-20260213） 2026.02.16 低频选股因子周报（2026.02.06-2026.02.13） 2026.02.14 绝对收益产品及策略周报（260202-260206） 2026.02.11 大 ...

特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 本报告导读： 对等关税被最高法院推翻后，特朗普政府会寻找更加坚实的法律依据重建关税框架， 我们认为再通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。 投资要点： 对等关税被推翻，并非去通胀，我们认为再通胀的风险依然较高： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍存 2026.02.14 非农超预期：6 月前或暂停降息 2026.02.12 PPI 修复继续：输入性影响增加 2026.02.11 黄金大跌：后续如何看 ...

第三，产业链：多元化重构。美国加大从越南、墨西哥、爱尔兰、 瑞士以及泰国等地区进口，基本对冲了中国下降的份额；中国对越 南、泰国、俄罗斯、马来西亚、墨西哥、印尼、巴西、阿联酋以及 印度等加大出口，完全对冲了对美出口的下降。具体商品来看，美 国自中国进口的重点产品都面临实际关税的大幅增加，美国自中国 进口依赖度明显下降，中国对美国出口份额也明显下降。美国加大 自北美和东南亚的进口来对冲中国下滑的份额，中国则加大对东南 亚和中东的出口来对冲美国下滑的份额。 风险提示：海外风险上升，数据测算存在偏差。 | | 021-23154149 | | --- | --- | | | lijun8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040063 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | 关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相" [Table_Authors] 李俊(分析师) 关税透视研究一 本报告导读： 自美国总统特朗普在 2025 年初提出新一轮关税政策以来，全球贸易已经遭受关税干 扰一年之久。本文拟从美国进口关税视角，全面分析各国、各产品实际落地的关税 水平，并进一步分析关税 ...

宏 观 研 究 "K 型分化"的边际收敛 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) ——2025 年 Q4 美国 GDP 数据点评 本报告导读： 2025Q4 美国经济主要受政府关门拖累，总体韧性犹在，并展现出"K型分化"的收 敛迹象，这明显提升了"再通胀"的概率。关注白宫在推动替代性关税框架的过程 中，对企业关税转嫁行为的影响。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年 Q4 美国经济：受政府关门拖累明显，但韧性犹在 美国经济四季度展现出"K 型分化"的收敛迹象 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍 ...

细数 2026 冬奥会多家运动品牌赞助亮点 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | | | 本报告导读： 我们详细梳理了 2026 冬奥会各运动品牌赞助亮点，发现从 2022 年到 2026 年，冬奥 品牌在赞助范围、设计理念、技术展现等方面实现了全方位升级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《优质消费布局正当时》2026.02.08 纺织服装业《Coach 品牌势能全面爆发，中国市 场强势领跑，上调全年指引》2026.02.07 纺织服装业《FY26Q3 HOKA 重回高双增速，上 调全年业绩指引》20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the concentrated release of domestic large models, including GLM-5, Doubao Model 2.0, Seedance 2.0, and MiniMax M2.5, alongside rapid iterations of overseas models like GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark and Gemini 3 Deep Think. It emphasizes the release of policies by the National Development and Reform Commission to accelerate the application of AI in the bidding and tendering sector [4][5]. - The domestic large models are advancing in foundational models and multimodal capabilities, with GLM-5 achieving a global ranking of fourth and first in open-source performance. The report notes significant improvements in efficiency and task execution capabilities in the latest models [4][5]. - The report outlines the competitive landscape among tech giants, with OpenAI and Google making substantial advancements in their respective models, enhancing performance in various benchmarks and applications [4][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Large Models - The report discusses the release of several domestic large models, focusing on their capabilities in agent-based applications and multimodal understanding. GLM-5 has been recognized for its open-source performance, while Doubao Model 2.0 and Seedance 2.0 have been upgraded to meet practical application needs [4][5]. Overseas Large Models - The report details the rapid iteration of overseas models, particularly OpenAI's GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark, which is designed for real-time programming and achieves near-instantaneous response speeds. Google’s Gemini 3 Deep Think has also shown significant performance improvements across various challenging benchmarks [4][5]. Policy Developments - The report highlights the government's initiative to empower the entire bidding and tendering process with AI, aiming for comprehensive application coverage by the end of 2026 in select provinces and nationwide by 2027. This initiative is expected to enhance the regulatory framework and market development [4][5].

本报告导读： 中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地 产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | ...