[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 江珅(分析师) | 021-23185638 | jiangshen@gtht.com | S0880525090001 | | 赵峻峰(分析师) | 0755-23976629 | zhaojunfeng@gtht.com | S0880519080017 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 政策拉动国内市场有效复苏，医疗设备招 采保持快速增长 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 医疗器械《政策拉动国内市场有效复苏，设备类 企业迎来业绩拐点》2025.11.11 医疗器械《政策资本多重共振，脑机商业化有望 加速》2025.10.22 医疗器械《医疗设备招投标规模保持增长，25 年 新一轮医疗设备更新有望来临》2025.10.13 医疗器械《设备更新政策持续落 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.10 11 月乘用车市场优惠力度持续减弱 [Table_Industry] 汽车 ——汽车行业跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | | 潘若婵(分析师) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880525110006 | 本报告导读： 11 月市场优惠力度持续减弱，行业内部结构性分化加剧。我们维持行业"增持"评 级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《优必选与卓世科技达成战略合作，众擎发 布 T800》2025.12.08 汽车《线控转向相关国标发布，产业迎来重要助 推》2025.12.07 汽车《零跑 Lafa 5 上市，海 ...

Market Overview - Overall asset performance shows commodities outperforming equities, with the Korean stock market leading gains[4] - MSCI global index increased by 0.6%, but growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to previous weeks[5] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds is steepening, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds are experiencing a "bull steepening" trend[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - 10 out of 13 major commodities recorded price increases, with COMEX silver rising by 101.9% year-to-date[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, with the euro and pound appreciating by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively; the dollar has depreciated by 8.8% since the beginning of the year[7] Consumer and Industrial Insights - Service consumption has improved year-on-year, with Shanghai Disneyland's visitor index up by 75% compared to last year[10] - Real estate transactions in major cities have seen significant declines, with new home sales down by 32.5% year-on-year[30] Financial Sector Developments - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36 trillion yuan, with equity funds increasing by 1.55%[24] - The performance evaluation of the investment banking sector is shifting towards enhancing investor experience[23] Company-Specific Highlights - Traffic Bank's net profit growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 8.58 yuan based on a 0.72x PB valuation[34] - Didi's EBITA is expected to be 46.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan[39]

平准基金的运作模式与完善路径选择 [Table_Authors] 何韫露(分析师) 基于国际经验的比较研究 本报告导读： 平准基金对引导社保、保险等中长期资金入市有着关键作用，是资本市场稳定的重 要支撑。参考境外平准基金经验，我国可从四方面进行完善。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-23185849 | | --- | --- | | | heyunlu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110003 | | | 李明亮(分析师) | | | 021-23185835 | | | limingliang@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040001 | | | 纪尧(分析师) | | | 021-23185836 | | | jiyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040003 | | | 孙欣欣(分析师) | | | 021-38038562 | | | sunxinxin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525010001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 中国五年规划的演进脉络 2025.10. ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

| 黄金与商品指数上涨，基于宏观因子的资 | | --- | | 产配置策略本年收益 4.25% | 大类资产配置模型月报（202511） 本报告导读： 2025 年以来，国内资产 BL 策略 1 的 11 月收益为 0.09%，2025 年收益为 4.04%； 国内资产 BL 策略 2 的 11 月收益为 0.13%，2025 年收益为 3.82%；国内资产风险平 价策略的 11 月收益为-0.01%，2025 年收益为 3.68%；基于宏观因子的资产配置策 略的 11 月收益为 0.02%，2025 年收益为 4.25%。 投资要点： 风险提示：量化模型基于历史数据构建，而历史规律存在失效风险。 | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 张雪杰(分析师) | | | 0755-23976751 | | | zhangxuejie@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S088052 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.10 电子布：紧缺预期下的"抢单季"躁动 其他非金属矿物制品 [Table_Industry] ——玻璃纤维行业更新 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 杨冬庭(分析师) | 0755-23976166 | yangdongting@gtht.com | S0880522080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 其他非金属矿物制品《石英资源应用高端化，新 材料国产化加速》2024.01.17 本报告导读： 覆铜板龙头集体布局 26 年高端份额的争取，带动近期特种电子布采购框架上修。同 时，传统电子布在织布机转产影响下继续提价的确定性较高。 投资要点： 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 跟 ...

11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 王文杰(分析师) | 021-23185637 | wangwenjie4@gtht.com | S0880525040070 | 本报告导读： 11 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，黑纸持续上涨， 盈利略有承压，我们预计 12 月浆价持续上涨，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸延续上涨。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸表现疲 软》2025.10.15 造纸业《8 月木浆及黑 ...

2025 数据来源：WIND，国泰海通证券研究整理，数据截至2025年11月14日。 3 2 / 01 2025 阶段一：1月至3月上旬，央行公开市场投放节制+释放稳汇率决心+暂停购买国债，资金维持偏紧态势压制债市情绪， 叠加权益市场表现偏强，股债跷跷板效应延续，信用债跟随利率债调整，压力由短端向长端超长端传导，各类信用债 收益率均呈现上行趋势。 阶段二：3月中旬至7月初，资金转松+中美关税政策扰动，信用债收益率跟随债市整体修复，信用债/科创债ETF规模 扩张速度较快，机构配置需求较高，推动利差持续压缩。 01 2025 5Y | 产业债（中证） | 11月7日 | | 中票 | | | 城投债 | | | | | 普通商金债 | | | 二级资本债 | | | 永续债 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AAA AA+ | | | AAA AA+ | AA | | AAA AA+ | AA | | AA ...

业绩增速逐季改善，息差管控颇有成效 交通银行(601328) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 交通银行 2025Q1-3 营收及净利润增速逐季提升，息差管控颇有成效，资产质量稳中 向好。上调目标价至 8.58 元，维持增持评级。 投资要点： | 风险提示：零售信用风险暴露超出预期、息差下行节奏超出预期。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 257,595 | 259,826 | 263,638 | 267,790 | 271,9 ...