股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.04 外销全面增长，海外盈利有所改善 海信家电(000921) ——海信家电 2025Q1 财报点评 | | | | | ——海信家电 | 2025Q1 财报点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | 李汉颖(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 42.00 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880523090004 | S0880524110001 | | | 本报告导读： 公司发布 25Q1 季报，外销维持高增趋势，盈利能力全面改善，看好公司在海外自 主品牌成长下的盈利进一步提升。 | 股东权益（百万元） | 16,565 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.95 | | 市净率（现价） | 2.3 | | 净负债率 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [12][20]. Core Insights - The company's revenue has declined, primarily due to a reduction in digital marketing business, while profit remains relatively resilient. Future focus will be on the recovery of business operations and the implementation of poker production capacity and AI enhancements across various business lines [4][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.46, 1.55, and 1.63 yuan, respectively, which have been adjusted downwards from previous estimates due to declines in marketing and gaming businesses. The target price has been revised to 35.04 yuan, down from 38.96 yuan [12][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 24.04% year-on-year. The digital marketing segment saw a significant decline of 40.25%, contributing to the overall revenue drop [6][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company was 539 million yuan, down 4.17% year-on-year. Despite the revenue decline, the overall profit margin improved across various business segments [6][12]. - **Gross Margins**: The gross margins for digital marketing, gaming, and poker businesses were reported at 7.76%, 96.15%, and 30.40%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [12][13]. - **Cost Management**: Marketing, management, and R&D expenses have decreased, maintaining stable expense ratios of 8.04%, 8.36%, and 5.72% [12][13]. Business Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its leading position in the poker industry by advancing the construction of a production base with an annual capacity of 600 million decks of cards, expected to be operational by early 2027 [12][13]. - The company is also exploring business and technological innovations, including the development of a short video center and AI-driven enhancements in gaming and marketing sectors [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, focusing on the development of nuts and sunflower seeds, with strong performance in overseas and direct sales channels. However, the profitability faced significant pressure in Q1 2025, awaiting recovery in subsequent periods [2][10] - The company reported a revenue of 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, with a gross margin rising by 2.02 percentage points to 28.78% [10] - The report revises the EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.25 yuan and 1.71 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 EPS at 1.93 yuan [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 68.06 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 803 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 630 million yuan in 2025, followed by recovery to 975 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 14.5% in 2023, increasing to 15.5% by 2027 [4] Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 23.89 yuan and 37.50 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 12.085 billion yuan [5] - The report indicates a current price of 23.89 yuan, with a target price set at 28.13 yuan per share [10] Sales Performance - The company’s sales in the sunflower seed segment reached 4.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.60%, while the nut segment achieved 1.924 billion yuan, up 9.74% [10] - Direct sales channels showed a significant increase of 38.29% year-on-year, contributing 1.462 billion yuan to revenue [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 39.96 CNY per share [5][11]. Core Insights - The company faced performance pressure in 2024 but has shown signs of recovery in Q1 2025. The overseas and innovation businesses have become significant growth pillars, and the future development is promising, especially with the emphasis on AI [2][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 92.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.98 billion CNY, a decrease of 15.1%. However, in Q1 2025, revenue reached 18.53 billion CNY, up 4.01%, and net profit was 2.04 billion CNY, up 6.41% [11]. - The combined revenue from overseas and innovation businesses exceeded 50% of total revenue for the first time in 2024, indicating a shift in the company's growth strategy [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials show a steady increase in revenue from 89.34 billion CNY in 2023 to 117.62 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [4][12]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 11.98 billion CNY in 2024 to 17.39 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.30 CNY in 2024 to 1.88 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28 times for 2025 [11][12]. Business Performance - The company's main business segments, including PBG, EBG, and SMBG, experienced revenue declines in 2024, but the overseas and innovation segments showed strong growth, with overseas revenue at 25.99 billion CNY, up 8.39%, and innovation revenue at 22.48 billion CNY, up 21.19% [11]. - The AI initiatives are expected to enhance the company's capabilities, with advancements in multi-modal algorithms and applications in various sectors such as traffic congestion diagnosis and supply chain optimization [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [11][18]. Core Views - The company's stable growth in magnetic materials provides a solid performance foundation, while the doubling of radiation protection materials showcases its competitive cost advantage in lead-free products and first-mover advantage in a blue ocean market. The acquisition of Jin Nan Magnetic Materials is expected to broaden the product range [4][11]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 886 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 145 million yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 234 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [5][11]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported revenue of 207 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.7% [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is revised to 1.61 yuan, down from the previous estimate of 1.77 yuan, with a target price adjusted to 51.52 yuan based on a 32x PE valuation for 2025 [11]. Product Performance - The magnetic adhesive materials segment achieved production and sales of 25.41 million square meters and 24.47 million square meters, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 12.2% and 8.6%. The electronic ceramic components segment produced and sold 1.66 billion and 1.62 billion units, respectively, with a gross margin of 32.7%, which improved by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year despite adverse raw material price conditions [11]. - The high-energy radiation protection materials segment saw production and sales of 348,000 and 344,000 square meters, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 159% and 152%, with a gross margin of 55.9% [11]. Acquisition Impact - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Jin Nan Magnetic Materials is expected to significantly enhance the company's product offerings. Jin Nan is the largest and fastest-growing manufacturer of rubber magnets globally, with annual sales exceeding 15,000 tons, capturing over 65% of the global market share [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.29 yuan and 1.34 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price set at 25.78 yuan based on a 20X PE for 2025 [3][11]. - The company aims to leverage strategic opportunities in Beijing to enhance its core competitiveness, focusing on the renovation and upgrade of the China World Trade Center area [11]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 39.12 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.62 billion yuan, an increase of 0.25% [11][13]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.1 yuan per share (including tax) for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 88% and a dividend yield of 4.88% based on the closing price on April 23, 2025 [11]. - The revenue from property leasing and management for 2024 was 33.86 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.04%, with a gross margin of 66.04%, slightly down by 0.37 percentage points from 2023 [11][12]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's rental income from various segments was as follows: office buildings (15.11 billion yuan), shopping malls (12.86 billion yuan), apartments (1.87 billion yuan), hotels (5.26 billion yuan), and others (4.02 billion yuan) [11]. - The average rental rates for 2024 were 639 yuan/sqm/month for office buildings (up 1 yuan), 1309 yuan/sqm/month for shopping malls (up 30 yuan), and 367 yuan/sqm/month for apartments (down 3 yuan) [11]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 22.785 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1,007 million shares [6]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 20.79 and 27.59 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 40.36 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight increase in net profit to 12.98 billion yuan [5][12]. - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is expected to be around 32.2% [12]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.9% for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 12.8% for 2027 [5][12]. - The company maintains a net debt ratio of -30%, indicating a strong financial position [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][10] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 87.92 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.91%. The total cash dividend proposed is 20.34 million yuan for 2023 [3][10] - The company is accelerating its modern agriculture layout by launching comprehensive solutions for cost reduction and yield increase [3][10] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 1.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93.59 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.81% [10] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 157 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 259 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.54 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.90 yuan [10][11] - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to increase from 5.4% in 2023 to 13.6% in 2027 [11] Business Development - The company’s revenue from domestic additives reached 358.38 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%, while overseas additives revenue grew by 12.48% to 544.09 million yuan [10] - The modern agriculture segment achieved revenue of 206.61 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 169.05% [10] - The company has successfully launched several new products in the field of biological pest control and fertilizers, enhancing market conversion efficiency [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that US-listed Chinese stocks exhibit characteristics such as concentrated market capitalization, multiple listings for leading companies, concentrated industry distribution, and a slowdown in the expansion of listings [2][8] - As of April 18, 2025, there are 390 Chinese companies listed in the US (excluding OTC), with a total market capitalization exceeding $900 billion. The top 25% of these stocks contribute over 98% of the total market value, with the top five companies (Alibaba, Pinduoduo, NetEase, JD.com, and Ctrip) accounting for approximately 60% of the total market capitalization [8][2] - The report indicates that 73% of the top 25% of Chinese stocks have achieved dual listings, with 45% completing dual primary listings and 26% achieving secondary listings in Hong Kong [2][8] Group 2 - The previous round of delisting crises for Chinese stocks began in 2020 and continued to evolve through 2021-2022, characterized by significant declines in stock prices, particularly for those not listed in Hong Kong, which experienced a greater average decline compared to those with dual listings [3][4] - The report outlines five phases of the delisting crisis, starting with the signing of the HFCAA by former President Trump, leading to a gradual escalation of market reactions and stock price declines, particularly after the SEC established implementation rules [3][16] - The report suggests that the current delisting situation may have a relatively controllable short-term impact on the market, as many leading Chinese stocks have already achieved dual listings, with a significant portion of their market value now in Hong Kong [4][21] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is continuously improving, facilitating the return of Chinese stocks to the Hong Kong market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has optimized its listing system for Chinese stocks, lowering the thresholds for secondary listings [21][4] - It is projected that within the next 3-5 years, approximately 24% of the market capitalization of Chinese stocks may meet the conditions for returning to Hong Kong, with less than 5% not qualifying for secondary listing conditions [21][4] - The influx of southbound capital is expected to provide additional liquidity support for the return of Chinese stocks to the Hong Kong market, as this capital shows a strong preference for new economy assets [20][21]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Policy Insights - The current focus of Chinese policy is on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with limited active compression of convertible bond valuations [1][4] - The expectation of policies to boost domestic demand has been increasing since April 8, leading to a rally in sectors such as retail, food and beverage, military, and real estate [4] - The performance of convertible bonds is sensitive to market sentiment, particularly during earnings announcements and trade tensions, with a notable increase in the number of convertible bonds trading below their bond floor [3][5] Group 2: Environmental Sector Insights - The weekly transaction volume for carbon emissions allowances (CEA) reached 1.5 million tons, with an average transaction price of 83 yuan/ton, while local carbon quotas saw a transaction volume of 160,000 tons at an average price of 59 yuan/ton [2][7] - Recommended stocks in the environmental sector include Qingda Environmental Protection, Longjing Environmental Protection, and Sand Technology, which are expected to benefit from the carbon market dynamics [2][6] Group 3: Transportation Sector Insights - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in Q1 2025, exceeding the annual growth forecast of over 8% by the postal administration [9][28] - The market concentration in the express delivery sector is increasing, with the CR8 index rising to 86.9 in Q1 2025, indicating a shift towards larger companies amid intensified price competition [10][29] - The revenue for the express delivery industry grew by 10.9% in Q1 2025, although the average revenue per package declined by 8.8%, reflecting heightened competition among leading firms [11][31] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on convertible bonds that benefit from domestic demand policies, including those in consumption, infrastructure, and real estate sectors [5] - In the express delivery sector, companies such as ZTO Express, SF Holding, YTO Express, and JD Logistics are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the expected growth in demand and market consolidation [12][32]

Industry Overview - Passenger car sales continue to show strong performance, while port throughput has rebounded on a month-on-month basis [2][6] - Real estate sales have weakened again in April, with new home sales declining year-on-year [6][11] - Durable goods show mixed performance, with passenger car sales growth rebounding, while domestic air conditioning sales growth has slowed [6][12] Downstream Consumption - In 30 major cities, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 10.1%, 22.0%, and 20.7% respectively [7][15] - For the week of April 7-13, passenger car sales increased by 13% year-on-year, indicating strong purchasing demand [7][12] - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.5% week-on-week, while the prices of domestic soybeans and corn remained stable [14][18] Cyclical Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, with new job postings showing a slight increase [8][37] - Steel and cement prices have declined, while float glass prices have increased [22][33] - The operating rate of enterprises in the manufacturing sector has decreased, but the number of new job postings has increased by 36.8% year-on-year [37][39] Upstream Resources - The price of thermal coal has slightly decreased, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal price at 663 yuan per ton, down 0.3% week-on-week [46][47] - Copper prices have rebounded, with SHFE copper prices increasing by 1.2% week-on-week [48][50] Logistics and Mobility - The migration index has declined, but port throughput has increased by 7.2% month-on-month [9][10] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 3.5% week-on-week, while international flights have recovered to 85.3% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [9][10]