Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company's operational efficiency continues to improve in H1 2025, with promising growth potential for future store expansions [2]. - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating and raises the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to 4.20 billion, 5.05 billion, and 6.17 billion RMB respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 6.094 billion RMB, with projections of 6.470 billion for 2024, 7.451 billion for 2025, 8.309 billion for 2026, and 9.471 billion for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -15%, 6%, 15%, 12%, and 14% respectively [5]. - Gross profit for 2023 is 1.351 billion RMB, with estimates of 1.417 billion for 2024, 1.654 billion for 2025, 1.845 billion for 2026, and 2.103 billion for 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 240 million RMB for 2023, decreasing to 231 million in 2024, then increasing significantly to 420 million in 2025, 505 million in 2026, and 617 million in 2027, with growth rates of 4%, -4%, 82%, 20%, and 22% respectively [5]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.0716 RMB per share, totaling 1.90 billion RMB, with a dividend payout ratio of 100% [11]. Operational Highlights - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.40 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a gross profit of 7.17 billion RMB, up 17.8% [11]. - The number of stores reached 10,400, an 8% increase year-on-year, with a net addition of 250 stores in H1 2025 [11]. - The company introduced 175 new SKUs in the hot pot and barbecue categories, enhancing its product offerings [11]. Market Positioning - The company aims to strengthen its supply chain and expand into lower-tier markets, with plans to explore overseas markets [11]. - The report suggests a target price of 4.24 HKD for 2025, based on a PE ratio of 26x, which is above the industry average [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the AI industry or Huawei's AI initiatives. Core Insights - Huawei is exploring a full-stack AI competitive strategy through the integration of software and hardware, transitioning from merely catching up with state-of-the-art (SOTA) models to customizing model architectures to better leverage its self-developed Ascend hardware [6][20]. - The evolution of the Pangu model series reflects a shift from dense models to sparse architectures, addressing systemic issues in large-scale distributed systems and enhancing efficiency [6][22]. - The introduction of the CloudMatrix infrastructure supports the optimization of AI inference, enabling high throughput and low latency through a unified bus network and various operator-level optimizations [6][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Evolution of Pangu Models - The Pangu model series began with PanGu-α, a 200 billion parameter autoregressive Chinese language model, which established a technical route based on Ascend hardware [6][8]. - PanGu-Σ, launched in 2023, marked an exploration into trillion-parameter models, introducing a sparse architecture to reduce computational costs [8][10]. - Pangu 3.0 introduced a "5+N+X" architecture, focusing on industry-specific applications and enabling rapid deployment of AI capabilities across various sectors [15][16]. 2. Maximizing Ascend Hardware Efficiency - Pangu Pro MoE and Pangu Ultra MoE are designed to maximize the efficiency of Ascend hardware, with Pangu Pro MoE addressing load imbalance through a grouped expert mixture architecture [25][26]. - Pangu Ultra MoE employs a system-level optimization strategy, utilizing simulation-driven design to enhance performance on Ascend hardware [46][47]. 3. CloudMatrix Infrastructure - CloudMatrix serves as the physical foundation for AI inference, addressing new challenges posed by large language models and enabling high-performance computing through a distributed memory pool [6][20]. - The infrastructure supports various software innovations, allowing for efficient communication and optimization of AI models [6][20]. 4. Full-Stack Collaboration Strategy - Huawei's strategy emphasizes open-source models to build an ecosystem around Ascend hardware, integrating architecture, systems, and operators for comprehensive collaboration [6][20].

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for the luxury goods sector, with specific companies like LVMH and Hermès showing resilience, while others like Kering and Canada Goose are facing significant challenges [22][30]. Core Insights - The luxury goods market is experiencing a slowdown, with overall retail sales in North America showing fluctuations, particularly in the luxury segment, which saw a decline of up to 14% in certain months [6][22]. - The report highlights a significant disparity in performance among luxury brands, with LVMH and Hermès maintaining positive growth, while Kering and Canada Goose reported substantial declines in revenue [22][30]. - The global economic outlook remains cautious, with the IMF projecting a world GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025, which may impact consumer spending in the luxury sector [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The IMF forecasts a global GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025, with developed countries expected to grow at 1.8% and emerging markets at 4.2% [4]. - China is projected to grow at 4.5%, while India is expected to lead with a growth rate of 6.5% [4]. Retail Performance - North American retail sales showed a mixed performance, with overall sales declining by 0.4% in June 2024, while luxury retail sales experienced a more severe drop of 14% [6]. - The luxury segment's performance is expected to remain volatile, with some months showing recovery while others continue to decline [6]. Company Performance - LVMH reported a revenue decline of 7.1% in Q2 2025, while Hermès showed a more stable performance with a decline of only 0.5% [22][30]. - Kering faced a significant revenue drop of 17.9%, indicating challenges in its luxury brand portfolio [30]. - Canada Goose reported a staggering decline of 61.8% in its latest quarter, highlighting severe operational challenges [30]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior, with a growing preference for brands that offer unique and aspirational products, impacting traditional luxury brands negatively [22]. - The luxury watch segment, particularly Swiss watch exports, saw a decline of 5.6% in June, indicating broader market challenges [10]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Chinese market for luxury brands, with a notable increase in Chinese tourists traveling to Japan and the U.S., which could influence luxury spending patterns [17]. - The performance of luxury brands varies significantly by region, with some brands performing better in Asia compared to North America and Europe [22].

Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of 2025, outperforming the A-share market, driven by sectors like innovative drugs, new consumption, and AI applications[4] - The overall increase in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the scarcity of certain assets, aligning with current industry development trends and better fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflow from mainland investors[5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The AI sector is leading the technological cycle upward, with significant growth potential for Hong Kong's tech assets, particularly in the AI industry chain, which includes model development and commercial applications[5] - The film industry has shown significant improvement, with a 49% increase in box office revenue week-on-week, and a year-on-year growth of 64.8% due to new releases during the summer season[11] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Real estate sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 17.8%[10] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in consumer demand despite rising inventory pressures among dealers[10] Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the tariff exemption period by 90 days, stabilizing trade relations temporarily[14] - Recent meetings have emphasized the need for macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market, with a focus on promoting consumption and managing risks[16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth in the automotive industry, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with a significant profit increase of 96.8% in June 2025 compared to the previous year [11] - The report notes that the financing activities in the smart vehicle sector are accelerating, with several companies completing significant funding rounds to enhance their market presence [34][35][37] Summary by Sections 1. Information Dispatch - July sales rankings for new energy vehicles show that Leap Motor sold 50,100 units (up 4.4% month-on-month), AITO sold 40,800 units (down 8.8%), and Xpeng sold 36,700 units (up 6.1%) [9] - New vehicle releases include the Li Auto i8, Changan's Kua Yue Xing Guang, and others, with prices ranging from 24,900 to 369,800 RMB [9] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 96.8% increase in profits for the automotive industry in June [11] - The China Banking Association forecasts a 23.44% year-on-year increase in loans for new energy vehicles by the end of 2024 [13] - China FAW Group aims to sell over 5 million vehicles and 3 million smart connected NEVs by 2030 [15] 2. Technology Dynamics - Zhiji Auto launched the "Hengxing" super range extender with a pure electric range exceeding 450 km and a combined range of over 1500 km [18] - Kioxia introduced automotive-grade UFS 4.1 flash memory, which offers 3.7 times the random write speed of UFS 3.1 [19] - Li Auto's i8 features the world's first VLA driver model, enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities [20] - Geely unveiled the industry's first intelligent cockpit, which will be implemented in the Galaxy M9 [21] 3. Lithium Battery Insights - Recent data indicates a slight decline in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, averaging 71,310 RMB per ton as of August 1, 2025 [23] - The report provides a detailed overview of lithium battery material prices, showing fluctuations in various components [24] 4. Investment and Financing Events - Bulletrux completed nearly 100 million RMB in angel financing to accelerate the marketization of new energy heavy trucks [34] - Xiaomi's investment fund acquired a stake in Huayue Transmission Technology, increasing its registered capital by approximately 16% [35] - Fenrong Automotive secured 7.8 million RMB in angel financing to promote a new retail model for vehicles [36] - CATL's subsidiary raised several billion RMB in Series A financing, achieving a post-investment valuation exceeding 10 billion RMB [37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Huawei is exploring a "soft and hard integration" strategy to enhance its AI competitiveness, transitioning from merely catching up with industry SOTA models to customizing model architectures for its self-developed Ascend hardware [12][30]. - The evolution of the Pangu model series reflects a shift from parameter competition to a focus on efficiency and scalability, culminating in the adoption of the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture [12][30]. - The report highlights the introduction of innovative architectures like Pangu Pro MoE and Pangu Ultra MoE, which aim to maximize the utilization of Ascend hardware through structural and system-level optimizations [36][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Evolution of Pangu Models - The Pangu model series began with PanGu-α, a 200 billion parameter model, which established a technical route based on Ascend hardware [12][30]. - PanGu-Σ, launched in 2023, marked an early attempt at sparsification, exploring trillion-parameter models with a focus on efficiency [15][18]. - Pangu 3.0 introduced a "5+N+X" architecture aimed at deep industry applications, showcasing its capabilities in various sectors [22][23]. 2. Pangu Pro MoE and Pangu Ultra MoE - Pangu Pro MoE addresses the challenge of expert load imbalance in distributed systems through a new architecture called Mixture of Grouped Experts (MoGE) [36][37]. - The MoGE architecture ensures load balancing by structuring the selection of experts, thus enhancing efficiency in distributed deployments [45][46]. - Pangu Ultra MoE emphasizes system-level optimization strategies to explore the synergy between software and hardware, reflecting a practical application of the soft and hard integration concept [62]. 3. CloudMatrix Infrastructure - CloudMatrix serves as the physical foundation for AI infrastructure, enabling high-performance communication and memory management across distributed systems [5][10]. - The infrastructure supports the Pangu models by providing a unified addressing distributed memory pool, which reduces performance discrepancies in cross-node communication [5][10]. 4. Full-Stack Collaboration - Huawei's AI strategy is centered around full-stack collaboration, integrating open-source strategies to build an ecosystem around Ascend hardware [10][12]. - The architecture, systems, and operators form the three pillars of this full-stack collaboration, aimed at enhancing the overall efficiency and effectiveness of AI solutions [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commercial aerospace industry Core Insights - The commercial aerospace index increased by 0.75% in the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, with a trading volume increase of 11.40% [2][23] - Significant advancements in satellite internet and rocket technology were highlighted, including the successful launch of the Long March 8A rocket and the successful flight of the Dual Curve No. 10 rocket [7][12] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of commercial aerospace in China, showcasing innovations that enhance launch capabilities and reduce costs [8][19] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Development Dynamics - The Long March 8A rocket successfully launched a group of low-orbit satellites on July 30, 2025, marking a significant achievement in China's commercial aerospace capabilities [7] - The Dual Curve No. 10 rocket successfully completed its mission on July 29, 2025, validating the performance of new products and the safety of the launch vehicle [12] - The YH-1000 unmanned transport aircraft completed a successful cargo verification flight in complex terrain in Chongqing, demonstrating its operational capabilities [14] - The Falcon 9 rocket successfully launched multiple Starlink satellites, showcasing the ongoing advancements in commercial satellite deployment [17] 2. Industry Financing Progress - Taihu Xingyun completed over 50 million RMB in Series A financing, which will accelerate its development in satellite technology and applications [19] - Tianyu Hangtong secured several hundred million RMB in financing to support the production and delivery of its unmanned aircraft systems [20] 3. Capital Market Performance - The commercial aerospace index reached a high of 14672.2 and a low of 14383.3 during the week, with 43.94% of companies in the industry seeing stock price increases [23][26] - Notable stock performers included Guanshang Technology, Aerospace Power, and Aileda, with weekly increases of 18.80%, 13.95%, and 13.22% respectively [23][26] 4. Industry Conference Preview - Upcoming conferences include the 21st Academic Annual Meeting on Deep Space Exploration Technology in July and the 42nd Academic Annual Meeting on Solid Rocket Propulsion in August [31]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market, driven by the scarcity of technology assets and the ongoing AI wave [1][9][17] - The report highlights that the technology sector in Hong Kong is well-positioned to benefit from the AI industrial transformation, with leading companies across the AI value chain expected to gain from the associated economic growth [5][26][27] - The report draws parallels between the current market conditions and historical periods of strong performance in Hong Kong stocks, particularly from 2012 to 2014, suggesting that the current economic environment and technological advancements are conducive to similar outcomes [17][18][19] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies in the Hong Kong technology sector, such as Tencent, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Tencent Music, NetEase, and Xiaomi, highlighting their growth potential driven by AI integration and market positioning [35][36][37][38][41] - Tencent is noted for its strong user engagement and advertising revenue growth, supported by advancements in AI technology and ecosystem enhancements [35] - Kuaishou's AI capabilities are expected to accelerate its business growth, with significant user engagement and revenue generation [36] - Bilibili's user base is growing younger and more engaged, indicating strong potential for monetization through advertising and gaming [37] - Tencent Music is transitioning into a comprehensive audio entertainment platform, leveraging its content IP and strategic acquisitions to enhance its market position [38] - NetEase is recognized for its robust game portfolio and efficient operations, with significant growth in user engagement and game performance [40] - Xiaomi is positioned to capitalize on AI applications across its ecosystem, with ongoing developments in automotive and consumer electronics [41]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in cyclical commodity prices, with steel, cement, and industrial metal prices declining, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The film market shows significant improvement due to new releases during the summer season [2][13][31]. - The construction demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel prices and continued pressure on cement prices. However, float glass prices have seen an increase [5][15][42]. - The automotive and chemical industries are experiencing a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, while the oil asphalt sector shows a contrary increase, indicating resilience in infrastructure demand [2][5][15]. Group 2 - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% in transaction area across 30 major cities. The decline is more pronounced in third-tier cities, with a drop of 37.0% [5][18]. - The average daily retail of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidies. However, dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [5][21]. - The film box office revenue saw a significant increase of 49.0% week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, driven by the release of popular new films during the summer [5][31]. Group 3 - In the manufacturing sector, there is a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, while oil asphalt production has increased, reflecting ongoing infrastructure demand [15][48]. - The prices of industrial metals have declined due to weak demand and the impact of tariffs on copper, with copper and aluminum prices dropping by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [57][58]. - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, while export logistics show signs of decline, with highway freight traffic down by 0.9% and railway freight volume down by 1.4% [66][70].

关税格局逐步清晰 ■ 政策与地缘研究 8月第1期 本报告导读: 国内方面,政治局会议召开,部署下半年经济工作,预告四中全会。全球方面,中 美经贸会谈延长 90天关税豁免期;美国贸易谈判加紧推进,差异化布局"对等关税"。 投资要点: | ન | 方奕(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 5 | 021-38031658 | | P | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | ન્ડ | 黄维驰(分析师) | | ಲ | 021-38032684 | | D | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | 相关报告 | 权益回调债市涨,铜价重挫美元升 2025.08.04 | | --- | | ETF 流出有所扩大,资金整体流入放缓 2025.08.04 | | 周期品延续涨价,空调内销排产转负 2025.08.01 | | 亚太领涨风险优,商品分化金油跌 2025.07.28 | | 内资继续加速,外资接力启动 2025.07.28 | 谈会召开。3)7月30日,中共中央政治局会议召开,强调宏 ...