Domestic Macro - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the establishment of new policy financial tools to encourage private enterprises to participate in major national projects [6][7] - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, which will exempt public kindergarten fees for the last year of preschool starting from the autumn semester of 2025, benefiting approximately 12 million children [6][7] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued regulations to reduce formalism and lighten the burden on grassroots levels [6][7] Industry Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy for the second half of the year [7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry [7][8] - Starting from August 8, the interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds will be subject to VAT again [7][8] Local Policy - The Hangzhou Municipal Committee emphasized cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, with subsidies up to 10 million yuan [8][9] - The Guangdong Provincial Financial Management Bureau issued guidelines for loan interest subsidies for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises [8][9] Overseas Dynamics - On August 2, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries that have not reached agreements with the U.S., effective from August 7, 2025 [9][25] - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase oil production in September [9][25] - The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% on August 7 [9][25]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - Founded in 1932, LEGO has become one of the largest toy manufacturers globally, effectively navigating economic cycles due to its resonance across various aspects such as market, users, and operations, which serves as a reference for the development of Blokus [2][3] - In 2024, LEGO is projected to achieve revenue of 74.3 billion Danish Kroner, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, with a net profit of 13.8 billion Danish Kroner, about 15.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [6][4] Summary by Sections LEGO: A Global Toy Company - LEGO, established in Denmark in 1932, initially produced wooden toys before transitioning to plastic bricks, becoming a leading toy manufacturer [6][5] - In 2024, LEGO's revenue is expected to reach 74.3 billion Danish Kroner (approximately 83.8 billion RMB), with a year-on-year growth of 12.76% [6][5] Successes and Failures of LEGO - Successes include the choice of the brick segment, which has a long product lifecycle, and the expansion of user demographics, including adult and female consumers [4][5] - Failures include the expiration of patents leading to market share loss and challenges from aggressive expansion strategies [4][5] Exploring Blokus's Development Path - The report draws parallels between LEGO's historical development and the current trajectory of Blokus, which is positioned as a leading player in China's building block toy market, with projected revenue of 2.241 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 156% [4][5] - Blokus's growth is supported by a rich IP portfolio and deep operational strategies, including content-driven marketing and channel expansion [4][5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic equity assets performed well in July 2025, with the risk parity strategy achieving a year-to-date return of 2.65% [2][5][20] - The report provides a summary of various asset allocation strategies, indicating that the domestic asset BL strategy 1 and 2 yielded returns of 2.40% and 2.34% respectively, while the risk parity strategy and macro factor-based strategy returned 2.65% and 2.59% respectively [21][41][42] - The report notes that the domestic equity market saw significant gains, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 4.8% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.78% in July [8][9][10] Group 2 - The report discusses the correlation between different asset classes, indicating that the correlation between the CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds was -38.08%, suggesting a potential for diversification [15][16] - The report outlines the performance of various asset allocation models, with the domestic risk parity strategy showing a maximum drawdown of 0.76% and an annualized volatility of 1.46% [41][42] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests downward risks for growth factors, while inflation expectations may stabilize due to recent policy measures [45][47]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% year-on-year, while import growth was 4.1% [5] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% [7] - The overall export performance in July was slightly stronger than expected, with potential risks from new tariffs and regulatory changes [8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with increased demand from industrial and automotive sectors leading to higher capacity utilization rates [28] - In Q2 2025, SMIC reported revenue of $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a gross margin of 20.4%, exceeding previous guidance [29] - Huahong Semiconductor also reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of $566 million, up 18.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 10.9% [30] Group 3: Construction Industry - The construction industry is under pressure, with indicators such as cement production and prices at low levels, indicating weak demand [18] - The price of rebar and the number of operating hours for excavators are also at near historical lows, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction sector [20] - Leading construction companies are expected to see valuation improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms and market management policies [19] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - LEGO's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 74.3 billion Danish Krone, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [24] - The Chinese toy brand Blokus is experiencing rapid growth, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 2.241 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 156% [26] - The IP derivative market in China reached a scale of 174.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2024 [26] Group 5: Banking Sector - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [47] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.31%, marking a continuous decline over seven quarters [48] - The bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and risk management is expected to enhance its long-term investment value [49] Group 6: Food and Beverage Industry - Unified Enterprises China reported a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [51] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 10.788 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points [54] - The company's strategy of expanding its product offerings and partnerships is expected to drive further growth [54] Group 7: Pet Food Industry - Zhongchong Co. achieved a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [56] - The company's domestic revenue increased by 38.9%, driven by strong performance in its core brand [57] - The overseas revenue also showed resilience, with a 17.6% increase, supported by new production lines in Canada and Mexico [57]

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous period, while import growth was 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[10] - The trade surplus decreased, with exports showing a slight month-on-month decline of 1.1% compared to June, but still higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, recording growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, driven by preemptive shipments ahead of tariff changes[17] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments, which could lead to a moderate decline in exports moving forward[34] - The report highlights that the resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment[34] - A significant risk factor is the unexpected weakening of the US economy, which could adversely affect export performance[43]

业 跟 踪 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 肖群稀(分析师) 0755-23976830 xiaoqunxi@gtht.com S0880522120001 丁嘉一(研究助理) 021-23187266 dingjiayi@gtht.com S0880125042233 本报告导读： 南北船重组进入落地阶段，管理体系统一、资源协同及产业链整合有望加速推进。 随着订单降幅收窄、船价韧性显现及运价回升，行业盈利条件边际改善，重组协同 有望放大公司在高景气周期下的盈利弹性。 南北船重组加速推进，行业景气改善支撑 成长 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 票 研 究 行 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《Skild AI 推出通用机器人 AI 模型；巨 星传奇、涛涛车业与宇树科技展开合作》 2025.08.03 机械行业《SkildAI 发布通用机器人大脑，人形机 器人泛化能力持续突破》2025.08.03 机械行业《Figure02 展示洗衣片段，家庭场景落 地进展加速》2025.08.02 机械行业《液氧周均价同环比提升；广钢气体 Super-N 30 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to a downturn in the photovoltaic industry, but its electronic materials and functional film businesses are growing rapidly, creating a second growth curve with clear long-term growth momentum [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 22,589 million, with a year-on-year growth of 19.7%. However, a decline of 15.2% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.1%, 10.6%, and 12.9% in the subsequent years [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,850 million in 2023, with a decrease of 29.3% expected in 2024, before rebounding to 1,691 million in 2025, and reaching 2,890 million by 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.71 in 2023, dropping to 0.50 in 2024, and then increasing to 1.11 by 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 8.0% in 2024, before recovering to 14.7% by 2027 [4]. Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times the estimated EPS for 2025 [12]. Business Growth Drivers - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic photosensitive dry film market, with significant sales growth expected in 2024, projected to reach 15,933.90 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 37.97% [12]. - The functional film materials business, including aluminum-plastic films and RO support films, is also expected to accelerate growth, driven by increasing demand in the new energy vehicle and water resource treatment markets [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 51.98 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company's performance accelerated in Q2 2025, with significant improvement in operating cash flow and a high increase in new orders supporting continuous growth. The natural gas business has emerged as the company's second growth curve [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 13,912 million CNY, with a growth rate of 21.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,454 million CNY, reflecting a 9.3% increase. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.06 CNY, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 [4][11]. Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 42.14 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 49.12%, and a net profit of 7.75 billion CNY, up 8.78% year-on-year. The operating cash flow net amount reached 31.44 billion CNY, a significant increase of 196.36% year-on-year [10][11]. Business Growth - The company secured new orders worth 98.81 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 37.65% increase year-on-year. The natural gas business has become a key growth driver, with revenues from this segment increasing by 112.69% year-on-year in H1 2025 [10][11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 41,231 million CNY, with a current stock price of 40.27 CNY. The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 25.50 to 41.65 CNY [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.3 CNY, up from the previous estimates [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's mid-year report for 2025 exceeded expectations, showing accelerated growth in revenue and net profit compared to Q1 2025. The provision coverage ratio improved, and both non-performing loans and the non-performing loan ratio decreased, indicating enhanced asset quality [2][13]. - The revenue and net profit growth rates for H1 2025 were 2.6% and 10.2% year-on-year, respectively, with Q2 2025 showing even stronger growth rates of 4.0% and 26.9% [13][15]. - The company has adjusted its net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 to 10.7%, 11.0%, and 10.4%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 174,365 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.1% compared to 2024. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 50,095 million CNY, marking a 10.7% increase from the previous year [4][14]. - The company's total assets are estimated to be 10,069,070 million CNY by 2025, with a loan total of 5,768,937 million CNY [14]. - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to decline to 1.29% by 2026, while the provision coverage ratio is projected to be 183.15% [14]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 72% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the market index [11]. - The current market capitalization stands at 417,391 million CNY, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.73 for 2025 [7][17]. Risk Management - The company has effectively managed risks, with a non-performing loan ratio that has decreased for seven consecutive quarters, reaching 1.31% by the end of Q2 2025 [15][13]. - The provision coverage ratio has increased to 194%, indicating a strong capacity to cover potential loan losses [15][13].