股债定价各有独立逻辑，定价的结果或均偏向止盈。 投资要点： 市 场 策 略 周 报 股弱债不强，意味着什么 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 区间震荡行情延续 2025.11.22 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落，存单发行提升，6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a cooling sentiment in the credit bond market, with institutions adopting a more conservative trading behavior, favoring short-term bonds over extending durations [1][6] - Overall performance in the credit bond market remains balanced, with credit spreads for bonds maturing within 5 years reaching their lowest point of the year [1][6] Group 2 - In the primary issuance segment, net financing increased to 1290.8 billion yuan for the week of November 17-21, 2025, compared to 361.2 billion yuan in the previous week [6][10] - The total issuance of major credit bond varieties amounted to 3846.4 billion yuan, with 2555.6 billion yuan maturing during the same period [6][10] - The distribution of issuers by credit rating shows that AAA-rated issuers accounted for the largest share at 60.1%, with diversified industries represented [6][7] Group 3 - In the secondary trading segment, total transactions decreased to 7783.28 billion yuan, down from 8032.22 billion yuan in the previous week [10][13] - The yields on medium-term notes (MTNs) generally declined, with the 3-year AAA MTN yield falling by 2.33 basis points to 1.86% [10][13] - The report notes a continued narrowing of spreads for short-term bonds, while long-term spreads showed limited movement [10][13] Group 4 - The report tracked credit rating adjustments, noting two upgrades for issuers in the municipal investment platform sector, with no downgrades reported [6][10] - There were two new extensions of bonds, with no new defaults recorded during the week [6][10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that trading activity has increased, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the smallest decline in valuation among major indices [1][4] - Overall valuation has decreased across indices, with the Shanghai 50 experiencing a decline of 1.8 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile and 2.6 percentage points in PB-LF historical percentile [4][5] - In terms of industry valuation, the communication sector leads in PE valuation, while the oil and petrochemical sector leads in PB valuation, with the latter increasing by 0.3 percentage points [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights a rise in trading sentiment, with turnover rates increasing across all indices, particularly the Shanghai 50, which saw a significant rise of 27.2% [4][24] - However, the total transaction amount has decreased across all indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 11.9% [4][29] - The margin trading balance as of November 20, 2025, was 2.50 trillion, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% compared to the previous week [4][30] Group 3 - The report notes a slight increase in the equity risk premium (ERP), which rose to 4.26%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week [4][26] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment is mixed, with increased trading activity but declining transaction volumes [4][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector [4]. Core Insights - Google has achieved a breakthrough in multimodal technology with the release of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro, establishing a leading advantage in multimodal applications. Tencent and Alibaba are promoting AI application accessibility, while domestic hard-tech companies like Moore Threads and Yushutech are advancing towards IPOs, marking a significant acceleration in the capitalization of hard technology assets [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Google released Gemini 3, outperforming competitors like GPT-5.1 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 in tests related to mathematics, reasoning, and multimodal understanding. The Nano Banana Pro enhances text rendering accuracy in images and supports generating professional-grade images at up to 4K resolution. These products signify a complete technological layout from foundational models to professional application tools in generative AI [4]. - In China, significant advancements in AI application ecosystems have been noted, particularly in multimodal generation and general assistant fields. Alibaba launched the "Qianwen" app, while Ant Group introduced the "Lingguang" AI assistant, indicating a shift from B2B to B2C strategies. This development, alongside models like DeepSeek, creates a comprehensive AI application ecosystem in Hangzhou [4]. - The hard-tech sector in China is reaching a critical point of capitalization, with Moore Threads initiating an IPO at a price of 114.28 yuan per share, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for AI training and inference chip development. Yushutech is also progressing towards a public offering, focusing on humanoid and quadruped robots [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends the following stocks with an "Overweight" rating: - Nicheng Technology (日联科技) - Kingsoft Office (金山办公) - Hehe Information (合合信息) - Hikvision (海康威视) - Newland (新大陆) - Daotong Technology (道通科技) - Hand Information (汉得信息) - Haiguang Information (海光信息) - Related stocks include Zhongke Shuguang (中科曙光) [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.O) [7][11]. Core Insights - Nvidia's Q3 performance and strong guidance counter the concerns regarding an AI bubble, indicating genuine resilience in AI demand [3][11]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2026E-FY2028E to $213.7 billion, $341 billion, and $412.5 billion respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of $114.2 billion, $193.1 billion, and $234.5 billion [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Nvidia are as follows (in million USD): - FY2024: $60,922 (125.9% YoY growth) - FY2025: $130,497 (114.2% YoY growth) - FY2026E: $213,695 (63.8% YoY growth) - FY2027E: $341,044 (59.6% YoY growth) - FY2028E: $412,504 (21.0% YoY growth) [5][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit projections are: - FY2024: $32,312 (286.3% YoY growth) - FY2025: $74,266 (129.8% YoY growth) - FY2026E: $114,187 (53.8% YoY growth) - FY2027E: $193,110 (69.1% YoY growth) - FY2028E: $234,537 (21.5% YoY growth) [5][11]. Market Data - Current stock price is $180.64, with a 52-week price range of $94.31 to $207.04 [7][8]. - The current market capitalization is approximately $4.39 trillion [8]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a target price of $252 for FY2027, based on a PE ratio of 32X, maintaining the "Buy" rating [11][12]. - The strong Q3 results included a revenue of $57 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $55.1 billion, with data center revenue growing by 66% YoY to $51.2 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for King’s Ray Biotechnology, with a target price of HKD 26.21 per share [9][13]. Core Insights - King’s Ray Biotechnology focuses on a "technology-driven" and "global layout" strategy, aiming for long-term revenue growth and clear growth paths across its business segments [2][9]. - The company has set a long-term revenue target of USD 3 billion by 2035, with an operating profit margin exceeding 20% [9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning as a leading global supplier of biopharmaceutical services and products, including antibody drugs and gene & cell therapies [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: USD 840 million in 2023, USD 594 million in 2024, USD 939 million in 2025, USD 825 million in 2026, and USD 961 million in 2027, with growth rates of 34.2%, -29.2%, 58.0%, -12.1%, and 16.4% respectively [4][10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from USD 410 million in 2023 to USD 441 million in 2027, while net profit is projected to rise significantly from a loss of USD 95 million in 2023 to a profit of USD 155 million in 2027 [4][10]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit in 2024 to USD 2,962 million, followed by a decrease in 2025 and a gradual recovery thereafter [4][10]. Business Strategy - The company aims to solidify its cash flow to support its life sciences, biopharmaceutical CRDMO, and synthetic biology segments, driving profitability growth [9]. - King’s Ray plans to enhance its core competitiveness in antibody protein business and expand into non-outsourced markets, providing innovative instruments and solutions [9]. - The report emphasizes the integration of business capabilities to transform mature services into one-stop solutions, accelerating productization and growth [9].

Domestic Macro - On November 14, Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss the implementation of the "two重" construction work [5][16] - On November 17, Vice Premier He Lifeng co-hosted the fourth high-level financial dialogue between China and Germany [5][16] - On November 18, Premier Li Qiang stated at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting that increasing tariffs and trade barriers severely impact international trade order, urging all parties to embrace free trade and reduce barriers [5][16] - On November 19, Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research on the digital transformation of manufacturing and innovation development of state-owned enterprises in Guizhou and Chongqing [5][16] - The National Immigration Administration announced the expansion of ports issuing valid travel permits for Taiwan residents to 100 starting November 20 [5][16] - On November 20, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce officially announced a list of 50 cities proposed for new consumption models and scenarios pilot [5][16] Industry Policy - On November 14, the People's Bank of China released the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures" [6][18] - On November 15, the State Administration for Market Regulation published a notice soliciting opinions on the "Antitrust Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms" [6][18] - On November 17, the Ministry of Commerce decided to conduct a final review investigation on anti-dumping and countervailing measures applicable to imported propanol from the United States [6][18] - On November 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "High-Standard Digital Park Construction Guidelines" [6][18] Local Policy - On November 14, a press conference was held in Hebei regarding the "14th Five-Year" high-quality development plan [7][19] - On November 15, Jiangsu Province raised the subsidy standard for automobile consumption promotion, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan [7][19] - On November 18, Beijing introduced a financial support plan to boost and expand consumption [7][19] - On November 19, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region signed a collaborative innovation action plan for the free trade pilot zone [7][19] - On November 20, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued a plan for the construction of a national digital economy innovation development pilot zone from 2025 to 2027 [7][19] Overseas Dynamics - On November 14, China and Switzerland held the third round of negotiations to upgrade the free trade agreement in Beijing [8][20] - On November 17, China expressed strong protests to Japan regarding comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Taiwan [8][20] - On November 18, Premier Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, emphasizing the commitment to enhance bilateral cooperation [8][20] - On November 19, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia officially signed a strategic partnership agreement on artificial intelligence [8][20] - On November 20, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there were no arrangements for a meeting between Chinese and Japanese leaders during the G20 [8][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][13]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant acceleration in revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a notable improvement in net profit due to a low base effect [3][13]. - The cheese segment is expected to have substantial long-term penetration potential, with ongoing expansion in both B-end and C-end markets [3][13]. - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue estimates of 53.13 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase from 2024 [5][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 53.22 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 60.04 billion yuan in 2026 and 68.20 billion yuan in 2027 [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 225 million yuan in 2025 to 434 million yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 97.7% and 32.9% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.44 yuan in 2025 to 0.85 yuan in 2027 [5]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 25.97 yuan, with a target price set at 33.20 yuan, suggesting a potential upside [6][7]. - The company has a market capitalization of 13.25 billion yuan and a total share capital of 510 million shares [7][8]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 17.24 to 32.69 yuan, indicating volatility and growth potential [7]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its B-end channels while improving its C-end offerings, particularly in the cheese segment [13]. - There is a strategic push towards diversifying product offerings and enhancing market penetration through innovative channels [13]. - The company aims to leverage its brand strength and operational efficiency to drive profitability and market share in the cheese industry [13].

Group 1: Company Overview - Amer Sports - Amer Sports reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.76 billion, exceeding guidance with a year-on-year growth of 30%, surpassing the high end of the guidance range of 20% [3][41] - The adjusted gross margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 57.9%, while the adjusted operating margin rose by 1.3 percentage points to 15.7%, also exceeding guidance [3][41] - The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 156% year-on-year to $140 million [3][41] Group 2: Segment Performance - The functional apparel segment saw a 31% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by strong performance in the women's business and footwear, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales up 46% [3][42] - The outdoor apparel segment experienced a 36% year-on-year revenue growth, primarily due to strong sales of Salomon footwear and apparel, with DTC sales increasing by 67% [4][42] - The ball sports segment reported a 16% year-on-year revenue increase, with significant growth potential through partnerships with leading distributors [4][43] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term growth outlook, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of low to mid-double digits for revenue from 2025 to 2030, with annual operating margin improvements [5][43] - The strategic plan includes continued investment in product development and marketing, particularly in expanding store presence in North America and Europe [5][43] - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue from the recovery of its South Korean distribution business, expected to add approximately $25 million in Q4 2025 [3][42] Group 4: Industry Context - Retail and Pharmaceuticals - The retail sector, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, is experiencing pressure, with the company reporting a 1% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][8] - The company is focusing on store expansion in lower-tier markets, with a total of 15,492 stores as of Q3 2025, including 9,741 direct-operated stores [9][8] - The pharmaceutical retail business reported a revenue of $13.144 billion, a slight decline of 1.27% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.71% [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts and target price, while overall performance aligns with expectations despite fluctuations in delivery pace. The industry demand remains strong, with a focus on the advancement of the MDC business [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 885 million, with a growth forecast of 55.7% for 2024, reaching 1,378 million. By 2025, revenue is expected to be 1,817 million, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated at 155 million for 2023, with a significant increase of 68.5% to 261 million in 2024, and further growth to 390 million in 2025, marking a 49.1% rise [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.68 yuan in 2023, increasing to 1.15 yuan in 2024 and 1.72 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 11.4% in 2023 to 22.0% in 2025, and further to 41.8% by 2027 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 90.56 yuan, with a target price set at 149.21 yuan [5][6]. - The market capitalization stands at 20,569 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 62.04 to 142.15 yuan [6]. Business Outlook - The report highlights the stable gross margin of 36.15% in Q3, with a net profit margin of 22.83%, indicating robust profitability despite seasonal fluctuations in orders [11]. - The MDC business is expected to gain traction with the introduction of ultra-large-scale clusters and rack-scale servers, positioning the company for better growth in high-density optical connections [11].