Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [9]. Core Insights - The adjustment of the spot electricity price cap in Ningxia from 0.56 yuan/kWh to 0.8 yuan/kWh highlights the ongoing shortage of regulating power sources, suggesting a positive outlook for regulating power [2][4]. - The report notes that the lack of peak regulation units in northern power plants should lead to an increase in industry valuations [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Ningxia's spot electricity price cap was raised to 0.8 yuan/kWh, reflecting the ongoing issues with regulating power supply [4]. - The new pricing mechanism for electricity in Ningxia includes a capacity price of 165 yuan/kW·year starting January 2026, which will be shared among all industrial and commercial users [4]. Regional Insights - The mechanism electricity price in Ningxia is set at 0.2197 yuan/kWh, lower than Shandong's 0.225 yuan/kWh, indicating regional pricing disparities [4]. - The report discusses the limitations imposed by Guangdong's policy on photovoltaic mechanism electricity, which may restrict the growth of solar energy in the region [4]. Statistical Overview - In August, total electricity generation reached 936.3 billion kWh, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.6% [4]. - The year-to-date electricity generation for industrial enterprises was 6,419.3 billion kWh, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.5% [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a domestic cyclical recovery, with structural improvements in export conditions. As counter-cyclical policies gradually take effect, the industry's prosperity is expected to continue improving [2] - Domestic sales of excavators are projected to rebound, while exports face some trade friction risks. However, most major engineering machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, making the risks manageable. Leading companies are also well-positioned overseas and are entering a harvest period [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals - In August 2025, a total of 16,523 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,685 units, up 14.8%, while exports reached 8,838 units, up 11.1% [4] - From January to August 2025, a total of 154,181 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Domestic sales were 80,628 units, up 21.5%, and exports were 73,553 units, up 12.8% [4] - In terms of electric excavators, 31 units were sold in August 2025, with various weight categories represented [4] 2. Working Hours and Utilization Rates - The average working hours for major engineering machinery in August 2025 were 78.4 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.45% [4] - The average utilization rate for major engineering machinery was 55.1%, down 6.83 percentage points year-on-year [4] 3. Trade Friction Risks - Most Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, with companies like XCMG and Zoomlion having less than 1% and around 1% of their total revenue from the U.S., respectively. Overall, the risk is considered manageable [4] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, and Hengli Hydraulic, with LiuGong identified as a beneficiary [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for these companies indicate a positive outlook, with SANY Heavy Industry projected to have an EPS of 1.0 yuan per share in 2025 [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical [6][12] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve growth through both "internal" and "external" drivers, despite short-term pressure on OTC products due to changes in terminal demand [2][12] - The health consumer goods segment has shown positive growth through proactive adjustments, while the core OTC segment has faced challenges [2][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,553 million, with a slight decrease to 4,435 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 4,525 million in 2025, and further growth to 5,004 million in 2026 and 5,548 million in 2027 [4][13] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 719 million in 2023 to 788 million in 2024, reaching 841 million in 2025, and continuing to grow to 1,062 million by 2027 [4][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.13 in 2023 to 1.32 in 2025, and further to 1.67 by 2027 [4][13] Segment Performance - The OTC segment reported revenue of 1,550 million, a decline of 10.14% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in terminal demand [12] - Prescription drugs achieved revenue of 360 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.44%, indicating that the pressure from centralized procurement has largely been alleviated [12] - The health consumer goods segment generated revenue of 228 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.35%, driven by a focus on self-developed products and key categories [12] Cost Management - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 66.60%, a decrease of 2.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.99 percentage points to 26.13% [12] - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were effectively controlled, with sales expense ratio decreasing by 6.20 percentage points [12] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its OTC business through new product development and product introduction, while focusing on core categories in health consumer goods [12] - Active exploration of mergers and acquisitions is underway to consolidate industry resources and strengthen core product advantages [12]

美联储降息后，各国利率如何分化 本报告导读： 美联储降息启动新一轮全球政策周期，利率分化与港币资金面紧张推动中长期配置 切换，关注美债、港币债及全球流动性传导格局变化，警惕流动性拐点下结构性机 会与风险并存。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 市场活跃度回落，指数振幅收窄 2025.09.21 2025 年四季度的债市，还能"先弱后强"吗 2025.09.21 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.9.12-9.19） 2025.09.21 长端补跌，曲线继续走陡 2025.09.21 大行融出税期短暂跌破 4 万亿 2025.09.21 债 券 研 究 债券研究 /[Table_Date] ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Overall consumption shows improvement, with notable increases in automobile retail and high-end liquor prices due to seasonal effects and base effects [2] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating with special bonds issuance, while real estate sales are recovering during the peak season, although the land market is cooling [2] - Production across most industries is declining, with adjustments in power generation and steel sectors influenced by demand and profit [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - Market adjustments present opportunities, and the Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms [3][21] - The transition from a "L-shaped" economic recovery to a more stable growth pattern is becoming evident, enhancing the certainty of economic and social development [4][22] - The technology sector remains a key focus, with recommendations for investments in internet, semiconductor, and innovative pharmaceutical companies [5][23] Group 3: Sector Comparisons - The new technology trends in AI and domestic production are rapidly advancing, indicating a new capital expenditure expansion cycle in emerging industries [5][23] - Financial sector stocks are recommended for gradual allocation due to potential increases in dividend returns after recent adjustments [5][23] - The shift in economic governance is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in cyclical industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and real estate [5][23] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - The report highlights the potential of domestic computing power investments and the growth of the commercial aerospace sector, driven by technological innovations and market demand [6][24][30] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to benefit industries like lithium batteries, energy storage, and agriculture, as well as sectors facing price recovery [6][24][31] - The development of embodied intelligence is gaining momentum, with significant investments in robotics and related technologies [6][24][31]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting that the current position is worth close attention as the industry is expected to experience a turnaround due to various favorable factors [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" measures being implemented by the government are expected to have a very positive impact on the PV sector, leading to a reversal of the current difficulties faced by the industry [2][3]. - The PV industry is currently at a historical low, with significant potential for improvement as policies and performance indicators begin to shift positively [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic as a Key Industry for "Anti-Involution" - The government is intensifying efforts to prevent "involution" in the PV sector, which has been characterized by irrational competition and price wars [7][12]. - The report notes that from the beginning of 2025, prices across the PV industry chain have been under pressure, with a continuous decline observed for 10 weeks, indicating a need for stabilization [7][12]. 2. Multi-faceted Approach for Industry Recovery - The industry is expected to benefit from supply-side adjustments, including capacity consolidation and self-regulation to alleviate excess supply [21][22]. - Policy measures are being introduced to regulate industry standards and improve legal frameworks, which will help curb unfair pricing practices [21][22]. - Demand-side mechanisms, such as the introduction of stable electricity pricing, are anticipated to stabilize market expectations [21][22]. 3. Photovoltaic Sector at Historical Low, Worth Attention - The report highlights that the market capitalization of public funds in the PV equipment sector has dropped to 23.94 billion yuan, representing only 2.1% of the circulating market, indicating a significant retreat to levels seen in 2018 [2][3]. - The report suggests that as policy and performance inflection points approach, the valuation of the PV industry is likely to improve, making it a focal point for investors [2][3]. 4. Recommended Stocks - The report provides a list of recommended stocks across various segments of the PV industry, including polysilicon, energy storage, leading companies in each segment, and integrated module manufacturers [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" investment rating [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic AI computing power is expected to continue improving, suggesting a focus on domestic AI computing-related stocks [5]. Summary by Sections - **Product Roadmap**: Huawei plans to launch the new Ascend 950PR chip in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 970 chip in Q4 2028. The world's strongest super node, Atlas 950 SuperPoD, is expected to be launched in Q4 2025 [4][7]. - **Performance Metrics**: The Ascend 970 chip will have a computing power of 4 PFLOPS (FP8) / 8 PFLOPS (FP4) and a memory capacity of 288 GB with a bandwidth of 14.4 TB/s. In comparison, NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra GB300 has a computing power of 15 PFLOPS (FP4) [7]. - **Deployment and Client Base**: As of September 18, 2025, CloudMatrix has deployed over 300 super nodes, serving more than 20 clients [7]. - **Open Hardware and Software**: Huawei is committed to open hardware and software, allowing the industry to develop related products based on its technology specifications. The operating system components will be open-sourced, enabling users to integrate and maintain their versions [7].

Group 1: Company Overview - Lepu Medical - Lepu Medical is a leading cardiovascular company in China, with a diverse product matrix. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.43%, and a net profit of 691 million yuan, down 0.91% year-on-year [3] - The company is strategically expanding into innovative drugs for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases through its subsidiary, Minwei Biotech, which focuses on obesity and type 2 diabetes treatments. As of August 2025, several products are in various clinical trial phases [3] - Lepu Medical is also actively developing its aesthetic medicine segment, with new products like dermal fillers and hyaluronic acid injections receiving approval, indicating strong growth potential in the non-medical insurance market [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Superwin International Holdings - Superwin International Holdings has over 20 years of experience in elastic fabric, with a stable management team. The company generates 55.4% of its revenue from sports fabrics and is well-positioned to capture more orders due to its mature overseas production capacity [6][7] - The company is expected to see net profits of 590 million, 640 million, and 700 million HKD from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from a rebalancing of supply and demand and moderate raw material prices [5][6] - Superwin has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, with a dividend yield exceeding 9% for the past four years, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8] Group 3: Industry Insights - Biopharmaceuticals - The biopharmaceutical industry is witnessing a shift towards innovative drug development, particularly in cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, driven by companies like Lepu Medical [3] - The market for aesthetic medicine is expanding, with increasing regulatory approvals for new products, indicating a growing consumer demand for non-traditional medical treatments [3] Group 4: Industry Insights - Textile and Apparel - The sportswear segment is outpacing other apparel categories, with rising demand for elastic, breathable, and antibacterial fabrics benefiting suppliers like Superwin International [8] - The company is positioned to leverage its established relationships with major sports brands, which have been in collaboration for over five years, ensuring a steady flow of orders [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.62 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - In the short term, the price of pulp has confirmed its bottom, and recent increases in international prices may gradually transmit to paper prices, leading to improved profitability in the second half of the year. In the long term, as new production capacity ramps up, the overall profitability of the company is expected to increase [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,553 million CNY in 2023 to 16,517 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 664 million CNY in 2023 to 1,592 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 51.2% in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.94 CNY in 2023 to 2.26 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2027 [4]. Production and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,107,900 tons of pulp and paper, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.55% in production and 62.25% in sales volume [12]. - The self-produced pulp has reached a level that can effectively replace imported wood pulp, with the Guangxi base achieving a net profit of 117 million CNY in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The company expects profitability to improve as new production capacities are gradually released, particularly in the Hubei base, which is anticipated to turn profitable [12]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 12.82%, a decrease of 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8%, down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company experienced slight increases in expense ratios, with financial expenses rising mainly due to increased interest costs [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit have shown robust growth, driven primarily by hotel bookings and international business [11]. - The report highlights that the company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, benefiting from a stable competitive landscape and improved marketing efficiency [2][11]. - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 183.25 billion, 206.60 billion, and 227.21 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to grow from 44,562 in 2023 to 78,490 in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.28% [4]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 13,071 in 2023 to 22,721 in 2027, with a significant growth of 910.12% in 2023 [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise from 13,975 in 2023 to 23,342 in 2027, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4]. Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.23%, and a net profit of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [11]. - The breakdown of revenue sources shows hotel bookings growing by 21.2%, transportation tickets by 10.8%, and group tours by 5.3% [11]. - The company has maintained a stable profit margin, with adjusted EBITDA margin projected at 29.6% for 2025 [4][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned to outperform its competitors, with a target market capitalization of 476.4 billion RMB, translating to a target price of 731 HKD per share [11]. - The report notes that the company's market share is increasing, particularly in the hotel sector, despite a relatively stable performance in outbound travel [11].