Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policy measures and mid-year performance expectations are likely to stimulate activity in the construction materials sector, with a focus on the differentiated investment in fiberglass [13][14]. - Infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing fixed asset investments showed mixed results, with infrastructure maintaining growth while real estate declined significantly [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming mid-year performance disclosures and the potential for increased domestic investment in July due to improved project funding and debt resolution efforts [13][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investments in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing showed year-on-year changes of +5.6%, -10.7%, and +8.5% respectively, indicating a decline in real estate investment [15]. - Key sectors such as electricity, railways, and water conservancy continue to exhibit high levels of activity despite a general slowdown in construction [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a continued decline in prices for photovoltaic glass, with expectations of supply contraction in Q3 2025 due to production adjustments by leading companies [13][22]. - The domestic supply of fiberglass continues to increase, while overseas production capacity is shutting down, leading to tight supply for high-end electronic yarns and fabrics [13][23]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies with high growth potential, including: - Yaxiang Integration (603929 CH) with a target price of 38.40 and a "Buy" rating - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of 11.03 and a "Buy" rating - China Nuclear Engineering (601611 CH) with a target price of 10.81 and a "Buy" rating - China Construction International (3311 HK) with a target price of 15.61 and a "Buy" rating - China National Materials (002080 CH) with a target price of 19.60 and a "Buy" rating [11][39]. Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the national average price for cement was 361 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.1% [29]. - The average price for float glass was 65 RMB/weight box, down 2.1% week-on-week and 25.9% year-on-year [30][21]. Inventory and Production - The report indicates that as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of float glass in key monitored provinces was approximately 60.52 million weight boxes, with an inventory turnover of about 31.24 days [32]. - The production capacity for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with 459 production lines in operation, maintaining a daily melting capacity of 98,990 tons [33].

Macro Insights - The report indicates a weak export performance, with port container throughput showing a month-on-month decline, suggesting a slowdown in external demand [2][3] - Domestic economic data for May shows a mixed picture, with industrial production slowing and real estate cycles weakening, while consumption growth was boosted by one-off factors [2][3] - The report highlights that some cities are increasing support for the real estate sector, such as Guangzhou's plan to lift purchase restrictions [2] Strategy Insights - The report suggests that short-term risk appetite may not improve, recommending a cautious approach to positions [3] - It notes that high consumer demand is difficult to sustain, with pressures from real estate adjustments and slowing exports becoming more evident [3] - The report emphasizes a focus on large financial sectors and suggests gradual accumulation in sectors with potential for acceleration, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI [3] Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the necessity and limitations of interest rate policies, indicating that while there is a need for rate cuts, the space for such actions is limited [9] - It suggests that the bond market is currently biased towards a bullish direction, but with limited room for significant gains [9] - The report recommends focusing on specific opportunities in medium to long-term bonds and high-quality credit bonds [9] Real Estate Insights - The report tracks the implementation of the stock housing storage policy, noting that while there have been some positive developments, the actual scale of implementation remains limited [11] - It highlights that local governments are gaining more autonomy in the acquisition process, which could enhance the effectiveness of the policy [11] - The report anticipates that continued policy optimization could contribute significantly to stabilizing the real estate sector [11] Power Equipment and New Energy Insights - The report states that inverter exports reached 5.97 billion yuan in May, with a month-on-month increase of 2.7%, indicating strong demand from Southeast Asia [13] - It emphasizes that long-term demand for inverters is expected to remain robust due to factors such as rising electricity prices and increased installations of wind and solar power [13] - The report recommends specific companies in the sector, including DeYue Co., GuDeWei, and SunPower, as having strong performance support [13] Company-Specific Insights - The report initiates coverage on YunDa Co. with a target price of 13.05 yuan, highlighting its strong growth potential driven by domestic and overseas wind power projects [16] - It also covers YaXiang Integration, giving it a target price of 38.40 yuan, citing its competitive position in the cleanroom engineering services market [17] - The report highlights Changjiang Infrastructure as a buy with a target price of 64.73 HKD, noting its strong cash flow and consistent dividend growth [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has successfully acquired a large natural soda ash mining right, which will significantly increase its soda ash production capacity and enhance its cost and scale advantages [1][2] - The mining area has abundant water resources and advantageous geographical location, which will support the company's operations [2] - The company will fully consolidate the joint venture with PetroChina, further expanding its soda ash scale advantages and enhancing its core competitiveness in the industry [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Resource Advantages - The company, in partnership with PetroChina, won the natural soda ash mining rights in Tongliao City for 6.8 billion RMB, with estimated reserves of 1.447 billion tons of natural soda ash [2] - The mining area benefits from a favorable annual rainfall of 350-450mm and a significant river runoff, providing ample water resources [2] Production Capacity and Cost Efficiency - The company currently has a nominal soda ash production capacity of 3.9 million tons, ranking third in the domestic market [3] - The company is implementing multiple technical upgrades to reduce production costs, which is expected to enhance profitability [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 610 million, 780 million, and 1.01 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42, 0.53, and 0.69 RMB [5] - The target price is set at 8.40 RMB, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2025, indicating growth potential from the newly acquired natural soda ash resources [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [7]. Core Insights - The securities industry is currently in a strategic opportunity period for balance sheet expansion, transitioning from a cyclical expansion to a resilient expansion phase, with large brokerages leading the way [16][19]. - The expansion of balance sheets is driven by fixed income investments, with a notable increase in contributions from subsidiaries, indicating a shift in operational strategy [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balance sheet management as a core profit source and a reflection of industry trends, highlighting the need for comprehensive asset allocation and international collaboration [19][20]. Summary by Sections Current Stage of Balance Sheet Expansion - The industry is moving from cyclical to resilient expansion, with total assets expected to reach 12.93 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a 12% CAGR over the past decade [16][21]. Importance of Balance Sheet Management - Balance sheet management is crucial for securities firms, as it directly impacts their operational efficiency and profitability, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation under resource constraints [20][22]. Nature of Balance Sheet Expansion - The expansion is primarily driven by the growth of the capital markets, with a strong correlation between the total assets of the securities industry and the performance of the equity and bond markets [24]. Future Outlook for Expansion - The report anticipates that the balance sheet will continue to expand alongside the growth of equity and bond markets, with significant potential in the derivatives market, which is currently underdeveloped compared to international standards [27][28]. Paths for Balance Sheet Expansion - The report outlines three main paths for expansion: external mergers and acquisitions, internal growth through regulatory innovation, and international expansion [32][39]. Characteristics of the Current Expansion Cycle - The current cycle is characterized by a focus on fixed income investments, stable leverage levels, and increased contributions from subsidiaries, particularly in international markets [17][18]. Comparison with International Peers - Chinese securities firms are still catching up with their international counterparts, with significant room for growth in both scale and core capabilities [18][19]. Recommendations for Investment - The report suggests focusing on leading firms with strong balance sheet management capabilities, such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy, as they are expected to enhance capital returns during the expansion phase [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Marvell Technology (MRVL US) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $85.20 [7][8]. Core Insights - Marvell has significantly raised its forecast for the global accelerated computing chip market to $349 billion by 2028, an increase of 103%, driven by major cloud computing companies and emerging AI compute builders increasing their data center CAPEX [2]. - The company also revised its forecast for the AI custom chip market to $55.4 billion by 2028, reflecting a 29% increase, with custom chips expected to account for 25% of the AI computing chip market [2]. - Marvell aims to maintain a 20% market share in the data center potential market, which is projected to grow to $94 billion by 2028, up 26% from previous estimates [3]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global accelerated computing chip market is expected to reach $349 billion by 2028, with XPU and XPU supporting chips projected to be $221 billion [2]. - The AI custom chip market is anticipated to grow to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a notable increase in the market for custom XPU supporting chips, expected to rise from $6 million in 2023 to $146 million by 2028 [2]. Competitive Advantage - Marvell has established a differentiated advantage in core IP technologies such as Serdes, custom SRAM, and custom HBM, enhancing its competitive position in custom chips and data center interconnect chips [3]. - The company has secured 18 AI custom chip projects, including five XPU projects, indicating strong engagement with major clients for next-generation projects [3]. Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Marvell are $2.53 billion for FY2026, $3.23 billion for FY2027, and $4.02 billion for FY2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The target price of $85.20 suggests a potential upside from the current closing price of $74.95, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to adopt a "price for volume" strategy, with a decrease in average prices and a slowdown in volume growth since the beginning of the year [3][4] - In May, the retail sales of goods and e-commerce GMV showed positive growth, but the growth rate of express delivery volume has started to decelerate, indicating a weakening effect from promotional events [1][2] - The report recommends investing in SF Express, which maintains a positive cycle of volume and profit, and Jitu Express, which has high growth in international business [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In May, retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with e-commerce GMV growing by 8.2%, indicating a strong online sales environment [2] - The express delivery volume in May grew by 17.2% year-on-year, but this was a slowdown from 19.1% in April [1][3] Company Analysis - SF Express achieved a volume growth of 31.8% in May, significantly outperforming the industry average of 17.2% [4] - Jitu Express reported a 15.9% increase in revenue for 2024, driven by strong performance in both domestic and Southeast Asian markets [24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that despite the express delivery sector being at a historical low valuation, the long-term outlook remains positive for leading companies due to their market share aspirations and operational efficiencies [5] - Target prices are set at 51.10 CNY for SF Express and 7.50 HKD for Jitu Express, both rated as "Buy" [10][23]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

2025年6月19日|中国内地 | 何康, PhD | 李雨婕 | 王伟光 | 孙瀚文 | 方正档 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520080004 | SAC No. S0570525050001 | SAC No. S0570523040001 | SAC No. S0570524040002 | SAC No. S0570524060001 | | SFC No. BRB318 | liyujie@htsc.com | wangweiguang@htsc.com | SFC No. BVB302 | fangzhengtao@htsc.com | | hekang@htsc.com | +(852) 3658 6000 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | sunhanwen@htsc.com | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | +(86) 21 2897 2202 | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 核心观点 证券研究报告 策略 ...

证券研究报告 公用环保 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环 保关注现金流 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环保关注现金流 5 月全国火电发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降（考虑 1 个月库存）， 考虑煤炭结构差异，我们认为主要火电公司 2Q25 业绩或出现分化；4/5 月 全国水电发电量同比下滑，不同流域存在分化；核电机组稳健运行；1-4 月 装机增长支撑绿电运营商电量同比提升；4 月全国天然气表观消费量同比下 滑。展望 3Q25，火电关注电价 vs 煤价剪刀差；水电盈利主要取决于来水情 况；绿电关注机制电价细则和国补确权进展；燃气关注天然气需求是否改善； 环保公司主要关注现金流、水价调整、绿色和智慧潜能释放空间。 火电：5 月发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降，业绩或出现分化 4 月全国火电发电量同比下滑，5 月由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降。据 国家统计局，2025 年 4/5 月全国火电发电量同比-2.3/+1.2%。考虑 1 个月 库存，2Q25 秦皇岛动力末煤平仓均价 654 元/吨（5500 大卡），同比下降 2 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a 22% year-on-year increase in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives, new model releases, and price reductions [2][16][22] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, supported by carbon emission regulations and ongoing subsidies [2][18][22] - The global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at a rate of 25% in 2025, with a significant increase in battery capacity requirements due to enhanced vehicle range [22][24] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with new installations projected at 100 GW for land-based and 12 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 23% and 114% respectively [3][4] - Internationally, the wind power market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased policy support [3] - The report highlights opportunities in offshore wind and related supply chains, including wind turbines, piles, and submarine cables [3] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The report expects global photovoltaic installations to reach 530-560 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0-6%, influenced by domestic demand and emerging markets [4] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to play a crucial role in reshaping the industry, with a key window for these reforms expected between the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [4] - New technologies such as bifacial cells and metallization processes are highlighted as areas of interest for future growth [4] Group 4: Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong bidding data and the advancement of market-oriented electricity pricing [5] - In the U.S., energy storage installations are expected to increase by 23% in 2025, despite concerns over subsidy reductions [5] - The European market is forecasted to see a 36% increase in energy storage installations in 2025, with significant contributions from large-scale commercial storage [5] Group 5: Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing a recovery, with growth expected in 2025 due to increased demand from traditional and new energy industries [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) technologies as key areas for investment [9] - Companies involved in high-value components and new technologies, such as PEEK materials and disc motors, are recommended for attention [9]