Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a focus on structural monetary policy, with limited room for further rate cuts, expecting a slight reduction of 50 basis points in reserve requirement ratios and 10 basis points in interest rates in the second half of 2025[2] - Emphasis on structural policy tools to support monetary expansion and boost the growth of broad money supply and social financing[2] - Initiatives include expanding structural policy tools and piloting innovative monetary policy tools in Shanghai, such as blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing[2] Financial Market Development - The PBOC's measures aim to invigorate the domestic financial market and promote innovation, including offshore trade finance reforms and the development of offshore bonds[4] - The establishment of financial infrastructure like interbank market transaction reporting and personal credit institutions is expected to enhance transparency and risk monitoring[4] - The financial regulatory authority plans to increase support for consumption and key strategic areas, while further deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4] Internationalization and Global Strategy - The PBOC's initiatives to support enterprises going global and enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) include developing offshore bonds and optimizing free trade account functions[5] - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center is anticipated to facilitate cross-border trade and enhance the RMB's status in the global monetary system[5] - The PBOC is expected to promote the use of digital RMB in cross-border payments and settlements, aiding in RMB internationalization[5] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress in domestic financial opening and unexpected volatility in global financial markets[6]

证券研究报告 固收视角 王建刚 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070098 wangjiangang@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 FOMC 声明和经济预测概要（SEP）要点 美联储召开 6 月 FOMC 会议，联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25~4.5%，连续四次维持利率不变，符合市场预期。会 议声明中，"经济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降，但仍处于较高水平"；删除了"认为高失 业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"；总体表述与 5 月声明基本一致。 点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有较大分歧，认为不降息的人数较 3 月明显增加。在 19 位官员中，有 7 位官员认为 2025 年不降息（3 月为 4 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次（3 月为 4 位），有 8 位官员认为 2025 年应降息 2 次（3 月为 9 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 3 次（3 月为 2 位）。 不确定性下保持耐心 —6 月 FOMC 点评 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Link Real Estate Investment Trust (0823 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 50.59 [1][8] Core Views - Link REIT is the first listed REIT in Hong Kong, focusing on essential consumer scenarios with a total asset valuation of approximately HKD 225.8 billion. The annualized return for unit holders since listing is 10.9%, highlighting its high yield and stable growth characteristics. Factors such as RMB appreciation, population recovery, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and inclusion in the Stock Connect are expected to drive valuation recovery [1][19][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes that the appreciation of the RMB and the recovery of the resident population are likely to boost the Hong Kong retail sector, creating a favorable environment for local retail recovery [2][20]. - The widening dividend yield spread and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhance Link REIT's investment appeal, with the current yield spread at 204 basis points, above the historical average of 187 basis points [3][21]. - The potential inclusion in the Stock Connect could attract long-term funds and increase demand for Link REIT, which has a strong focus on essential consumer assets and a robust ability to withstand economic cycles [3][22]. Differentiation from Market Views - The report argues that concerns regarding the Hong Kong retail sector's performance are manageable, with the stock price having corrected approximately 44% from its 2019 peak, indicating that pessimistic expectations are largely priced in. The report suggests that the market has not fully priced in the positive impacts of RMB appreciation, population recovery, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][23]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected distributable amounts for Link REIT for the fiscal years 2026-2028 are HKD 69.08 billion, HKD 69.82 billion, and HKD 70.52 billion, reflecting a slight decline in 2026 followed by modest growth in subsequent years. The report uses a dividend discount model for valuation, arriving at a target price of HKD 50.59 based on a long-term dividend growth rate of 0.5% [5][19].

证券研究报告 宏观 6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行"调整 为"有所回落但维持高位"。虽然近期就业数据有所降温，通胀整体偏弱， 不确定性也有所回落，但鲍威尔强调联储决策是前瞻性的（forward looking），关税预计将在夏季更明显向通胀传导，因而继续按兵不动，观察 后续经济数据后再决定是否降息。本次会议整体符合预期，市场变动不大。 截至北京时间凌晨 4:00，相较于会前，市场预期 2025 年、2026 年累计降 息幅度分别上升 3bp、下降 1bp 至 48bp、66bp；2 年期美债收益率基本持 平于 3.93%，10 年期美债收益率上行 2bp 至 4.38%；美元指数上涨 0.3% 至 99；标普 500 下跌 0.1%；黄金下跌 0 ...

资本市场改革再添积极变化 ——2025 年陆家嘴金融论坛简评 证券研究报告 策略视角 华泰研究 方正韬 研究员 SAC No. S0570524060001 fangzhengtao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 核心观点 6 月 18-19 日，陆家嘴金融论坛（以下简称"论坛"）在沪举行，18 日央行行长潘功胜宣布八项金融开放举措，证监会 主席吴清等发表重要讲话。我们认为，论坛有望推动资本市场改革和发展，为权益市场中长期向好提供有利土壤，关 注三大重点：1）建设上海金融中心，建立沪港联动机制，发挥协同效应；2）设立数字人民币国际运营中心，数字货 币+跨境支付或助力人民币国际化提速；3）多措并举深化科创板、创业板改革，金融服务高质量发展。配置上，大金 融、数字经济/支付、科创或受益，中长期关注以 A50、消费、金融为代表的核心资产。 建设上海金融中心，建立沪港联动机制 沪港联动发挥协同效应，资金引进来，企业"走出去"。6 月 18 日，沪港两地共同举行发布会，签署《沪港国际金融中 心协同发展行动方案》。在年初以来港股一二级市场火热的背景下，我们认为该方案有两层重要含义。1）资金引进来 ...

Domestic Monetary Policy - The central bank's monetary policy will focus on structural policies, with limited room for further rate cuts, expecting a slight reduction of 50 basis points in reserve requirement ratios and 10 basis points in interest rates in the second half of 2025[2] - Emphasis on structural policy tools to support monetary expansion and boost the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing[2] - Initiatives include pilot programs for innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai, such as blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing[2] Financial Market Activation - Announced measures to enhance offshore trade finance services and develop offshore bonds, which will enrich domestic financial products and promote financial innovation[3] - The financial regulatory authority will increase support for consumption and key strategic areas, while the securities regulator will deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[3] - Establishing interbank market transaction reporting systems and personal credit institutions to enhance information transparency and risk monitoring[3] International Financial Strategy - Development of offshore bonds and optimization of free trade account functions to facilitate financing for domestic enterprises going abroad and those in Belt and Road Initiative regions[4] - Establishment of a digital RMB international operation center to promote cross-border trade and enhance the RMB's status in the international monetary system[4] - The central bank will further promote the use of digital RMB in cross-border payments and settlements, aiding in RMB internationalization[4] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress in domestic financial opening and unexpected volatility in global financial markets[5]

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 19 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：陆家嘴论坛：货币政策对内搞活市场，对外加快开放 6 月 18 日（周三），2025 年陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。开幕式上，央行行长潘 功胜宣布 8 项金融开放措施，聚焦金融基础设施、数字金融、跨境贸易和监 管创新，显示央行搞活国内金融市场、加大对外开放的政策取向。 风险提示：国内金融开放进度不及预期；全球金融市场超预期波动。 研报发布日期：2025-06-19 研究员 常慧丽 SAC:S0570520110002 SFC:BJC906 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 宏观：6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行 ...

固收 市场的共识与潜在预期差 华泰研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 18 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 核心观点 近期影响资产的宏观主线发生切换，市场对关税的敏感度在下降，对经济数 据、地缘局势的关注度在提升，而前期形成的市场共识也开始出现分歧与预 期差。地缘冲突对资产价格多为短期的脉冲式影响，而关税、财政政策落地 后的基本面状态，成为影响大类资产价格走势的中长期变量。不确定性环境 下，重申"重赔率+重左侧+重交易"的配置策略，尤其关注一致预期出现 反转后的交易机会。本周配置建议方面，当前市场处于关税政策的疲劳期+ 基本面数据验证期+地缘扰动频发期，在基本面降温以及地缘避险需求下， 前期计入较多关税乐观预期的权益资产赔率或欠佳，而债券、黄金等避险资 产胜率相对更高，仍需关注中东地缘局势、陆家嘴论坛等。 核心主题：市场的共识与潜在预期差 我们尝试梳理了五组市场共识与潜在预期差，以供投资者参考，并建议把握 共识反转后的交易机会。1）关税对市场影响力度降低，逐渐退化为扰动性 因素。关税对美国基本面影响可能偏滞后，但不会缺席。2）美国债务问题 恶化，美债利率易上难下，美元或长期走弱。但长期债务问题已定价较为充 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the June meeting, with a focus on domestic employment and inflation trends, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices [2] - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and will slow down its balance sheet reduction starting April 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth and inflation due to tariff uncertainties [3] Energy/Coal Sector - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to lead to a rebound in coal prices, as historical data shows a correlation between oil and coal prices during geopolitical conflicts [3] - The average oil-coal price ratio since 2000 is 3.37, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, indicating a strong relationship between the two commodities [3] Consumer Sector - In May, China's retail sales reached 4.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies and active holiday consumption [6] - The consumer recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities in emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation [6] Transportation Sector - Airlines have seen a steady increase in capacity and a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with ticket prices improving for eight consecutive weeks [7] - The industry is expected to enter a profitable cycle, supported by low supply growth and effective revenue management by airlines [7] Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has shown a mild recovery, with a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries [11] - Key trends include focusing on core assets, enhancing local capabilities for overseas markets, and leveraging AI and innovation for growth [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer electronics sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to accelerate due to overseas demand and the rise of the trendy toy economy, transitioning from niche to mainstream [1]. - Technological advancements and cost reductions in the supply chain are anticipated to unlock greater potential for 3D printing technology in the long term [3]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the 3D printing components and scanning segments, with a focus on companies involved in these areas [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is benefiting from technological breakthroughs, reduced costs, and expanded DIY applications, making it more accessible to consumers [1]. - The demand for personalized manufacturing overseas, combined with the trendy toy economy, is expected to drive growth in the consumer-grade 3D printing sector [2]. Section 2: Export and Domestic Demand - Domestic 3D printer manufacturers are experiencing significant sales overseas, with exports reaching 377.8 thousand units in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2]. - The rise of IP creation in the trendy toy economy is creating a responsive ecosystem within the domestic 3D printing community, enhancing market demand [2]. Section 3: Future Potential - Long-term prospects for 3D printing technology include its application in personalized manufacturing for consumers, acceleration of product development for businesses, and its role as a core high-end production process in industrial settings [3]. - Cost reductions through domestic sourcing of key materials and components are expected to further lower production costs for 3D printers, enhancing market competitiveness [3]. Section 4: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the 3D printing components sector and the 3D scanning segment, identifying key players in these areas [4].