2025 年 04 月 20 日 价值权益资产仍最具性价比——资产配置周报 （2025-4-20） 相关研究 —固定收益周报 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 3 月实体部门负债增 速录得 8.3%，前值 8.4%，略低于我们之前的预期。预计 4 月 实体部门负债增速小幅反弹至 8.7%附近，3 月底 4 月初形成 年内高点，随后趋于下行，重回缩表。金融部门方面，上周 资金面边际上整体平稳。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出： "使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配"，这表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没 有任何动摇，中国仍然处于边际缩表过程之中，大规模化债 进一步降低了地方政府融资成本、以及发生大规模违约和流 动性风险的概率，有利于提升全社会的预期。按照两会公布 的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降至 8%附 近。 财政政策。上周合计政府债（包括国债和地方债）净增加 5717 亿元（高于计划的净增加 4627 亿元），按计划本周政 府债净减少 692 亿元，2025 年 2 月末政府负债增速为 12.9%，前值 11.8%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with total revenue for 2024 reaching 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 294 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023 [4][6] - The company is expanding its store network significantly, with a total of 14,196 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 9,470 stores from the beginning of the year. This expansion is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [6][7] - The company is focusing on developing a discount supermarket model, leveraging its strengths in supply chain management and product offerings to increase customer retention and average transaction value [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 11.72 billion yuan, up 167% year-on-year, with a net profit of 209 million yuan compared to a loss of 26 million yuan in Q4 2023. The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 11.35% due to enhanced supply chain efficiency [4][5] Store Expansion and Business Strategy - The company is actively expanding its store count and has launched a new discount supermarket format centered around snacks. The snack retail business generated 31.79 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 263% increase year-on-year [6][7] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with projected EPS of 3.44 yuan, 4.74 yuan, and 5.98 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33, 24, and 19 for the respective years [7][10]

买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-18 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 112.9 | | 总市值（亿元） | 203 | | 总股本（百万股） | 180 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 156 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.02-114.36 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 158.45 | 市场表现 2025 年 04 月 20 日 拓店势能延续，规模效应释放 -100 0 100 200 300 400 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 2025 年 4 月 18 日，万辰集团发布 2024 年年报。2024 年总营 收 323.29 亿元（同增 248%），归母净利润 2.94 亿元（2023 年为亏损 0.83 亿元），扣非净利润 2.58 亿元（2023 年为亏 损 0.84 亿元）。2024Q4 总 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 调整带来买入良机，聚焦核心阿尔法 新能源汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年04月20日 ◼ 分析师：黎江涛 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 投 资 要 点 继续看好板块机会。根据中汽协数据，2025年3月，新能源汽车产销分别完成127.7万辆和123.7万辆，环比分别增长43.9% 和38.7%，同比分别增长47.9%和40.1%。1-3月，新能源汽车产销累计完成318.2万辆和307.5万辆，同比分别增长50.4%和 47.1%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的41.2%。供给端，电池及主机厂新品不断推出，需求端反馈积极，政策也 不断发力。价格层面，产业链历经价格大幅下行，资本开支不断收缩，供需格局不断优化，行业协会、产业链公司均在积极优 化产能与供给，力争价格保障企业盈利。整体而言，产业链价格处于底部，价格易涨难跌，需求端韧性强劲，调整带来布局良 机，产业链核心公司估值处于历史低水平，看好产业链优质公司。 政策持续呵护，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，2025年产业链价格触底修复。继续优选有望贡献 ...

2025 年 04 月 19 日 业绩短期承压，期待下游改善 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-18 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 31.4 | | 总市值（亿元） | 39 | | 总股本（百万股） | 124 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 115 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.97-37 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 173.67 | 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 熊猫乳品 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《熊猫乳品（300898）：盈利能 力改善，炼乳增长势能延续》2024- 08-19 2、《熊猫乳品（300898）：利润端 增速亮眼，多极增长逻辑清晰》 2024-04-25 3、《熊猫乳品（300898）：新品渠 道布局顺利 ...

内需看 A 计划 科技与消费并驾齐驱 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 2025 年 04 月 20 日 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒(申万) | -11.8 | 1.9 | 12.1 | | 沪深 300 | -5.9 | -1.0 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：持续看好内需 且洼地的成长型选手》2025-04-12 2、《传媒行业专题报告："情绪经 济"专题》2025-04-10 3、《传媒行业周报：看内需寻成长 型选手》2025-04-05 ▌ 本周观点更新 在外部不确定性下，国家政策护航作用逐步显现，A 股相对 获政策传导较快，进而我们看好内需下的 A ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 内需看 A 计划 科技与消费并驾齐驱 ▌ 本周观点更新 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒(申万) | -11.8 | 1.9 | 12.1 | | 沪深 300 | -5.9 | -1.0 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：持续看好内需 且洼地的成长型选手》2025-04-12 2、《传媒行业专题报告："情绪经 济"专题》2025-04-10 3、《传媒行业周报：看内需寻成长 型选手》2025-04-05 在外部不确定性下，国家政策护航作用逐步显现，A 股相对 获政策传导较快，进而我们看好内需下的 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company has achieved steady revenue growth driven by both organic and external factors, with a 14.40% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.567 billion yuan and a 13.21% increase in net profit to 392 million yuan for 2024 [4][9] - The company demonstrates operational resilience through effective cost control and a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024 [4] - Strategic breakthroughs have been made through mergers and acquisitions, with significant contributions from acquired companies and a 50% increase in overseas revenue, reaching 200 million yuan [5][9] - The company is focusing on technological advancements and capacity expansion, with a research investment of 75.77 million yuan in 2024 and the successful production of diamond-coated seals [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.567 billion yuan, a 14.40% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, reflecting a 13.21% growth [4][11] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.31 percentage points to 48.34%, while the expense ratio improved by 1.49 percentage points to 20.24% [4] Mergers and Acquisitions - The company has successfully integrated several acquisitions, including Yutai Technology and Xin Di Pei Er, with net profits of 29.90 million yuan and 28.18 million yuan respectively, showing significant synergy effects [5] - The acquisition of KS GmbH further strengthens the company's upstream integration capabilities in the rubber and plastic sealing sector [5] International Expansion - The company has seen a notable increase in international business, with overseas revenue growing by 50% to 200 million yuan, successfully entering high-end projects in Abu Dhabi and Algeria [5] Technological Development - The company invested 75.77 million yuan in R&D, achieving breakthroughs in core technologies and securing 19 patents in 2024 [8] - Capacity upgrades are ongoing, with the production line for rubber and plastic seals fully operational and efficiency improvements through PLM/WMS systems [8] Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.761 billion yuan, 2.015 billion yuan, and 2.239 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.16 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.74 yuan [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company has achieved steady revenue growth driven by both organic and external factors, with a 14.40% year-on-year increase in revenue to 1.567 billion yuan and a 13.21% increase in net profit to 392 million yuan for 2024 [4][9] - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience through effective cost control and a high dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024 [4] - Strategic breakthroughs have been made through mergers and acquisitions, with significant contributions from acquired companies and a 50% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [5][9] - The company is focusing on technological advancements and capacity expansion, with a research and development investment of 75.77 million yuan in 2024 and the successful production of diamond-coated seals [8][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.567 billion yuan, a 14.40% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, reflecting a 13.21% growth [4][11] - The gross margin for the year was 48.34%, despite a decline of 1.31 percentage points due to weak demand in the petrochemical industry [4] Mergers and Acquisitions - The company has successfully integrated several acquisitions, including Yutai Technology and New Dipei, with net profits of 29.90 million yuan and 28.18 million yuan respectively, showing significant synergy effects [5] - The acquisition of KS GmbH further strengthens the company's upstream integration capabilities in the rubber and plastic sealing sector [5] International Expansion - The company has seen a notable increase in international business, with overseas revenue reaching 200 million yuan, a 50% increase year-on-year [5] - Successful projects include high-end contracts in Abu Dhabi and Algeria, indicating strong international recognition of the company's technical capabilities [5] Technological Development - The company invested 75.77 million yuan in R&D in 2024, achieving breakthroughs in core technologies and securing 19 patents [8] - Capacity upgrades are ongoing, with the production line for rubber and plastic seals fully operational and efficiency improvements through new management systems [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.761 billion yuan, 2.015 billion yuan, and 2.239 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.16 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.74 yuan [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but there are expectations for the effectiveness of reforms [1] - The overall industry is in an adjustment phase, with a positive outlook on supply chain platform construction [6] - E-commerce is experiencing rapid growth, and channel reforms are anticipated to yield results [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 9.464 billion and 0.44 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6% and 81% [5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue and net profit of 1.633 billion and -0.123 billion yuan, with total revenue down 13% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 9% and 0.5%, down 1.7 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow improved, with a 54% year-on-year increase in operating net cash flow to 4.36 billion yuan [5] Industry Overview - The wine industry, including both white and red wine, is experiencing revenue declines, with white wine revenue at 8.76 billion yuan and red wine at 420 million yuan, down 6.77% and 13.68% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The company is deepening cooperation with Penfolds and has obtained exclusive agency rights for several red wine products, expanding its product range [6] E-commerce and Channel Strategy - E-commerce revenue for 2024 reached 2.092 billion yuan, with significant growth driven by marketing strategies during the Spring Festival [7] - The company is focusing on three channel models: Huazhi Wine 3.0, Huazhi Famous Wine Library, and Huazhi Preferred, to adapt to market changes and enhance brand presence [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.26, 0.42, and 0.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 61, 37, and 26 times [9]