2025 年 06 月 03 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：29 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 29 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、低碳、无人驾驶 1、人工智能主题：OpenAI 日前宣布以 65 亿美元全股收 购由苹果前首席设计师 JonyIve 创立的 AI 硬件初创公司 io，并计划推出一款革命性的 AI"伴侣"设备，目标在 2026 年底前发货 1 亿台。这款设备旨在成为一款环境感知智能 体，可放置在口袋或书桌上，通过多模态 AI 无缝融入用户日 常生活。相关标的：荣信文化(301231)、汤姆猫(300459) 2、低碳主题：近日召开的国常会审议通过《制造业绿色 低碳发展行动方案（2025—2027 年）》。会议指出，推进制 造业绿色低碳发展是大势 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The box office for the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025 reached 136 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with attendance increasing by 33% to 3.9 million people, indicating strong demand resilience driven by quality content supply [4][5] - The opening of the first immersive children's intellectual park in Shanghai, themed around classic animation IPs, is expected to enhance brand recognition and channel value [5] - Wanda Film's investment in 52TOYS aims to leverage IP and channel advantages, enhancing non-ticket revenue and capital appreciation through a "content + consumption + technology" business model [6][8] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - The 2025 Dragon Boat Festival box office saw a significant increase, with the film "Mission: Impossible 8" contributing 46% of the total box office, showcasing the impact of quality content on audience turnout [4] New Business Opportunities - The launch of the popome children's park in Shanghai represents a new business avenue for cinemas, combining classic animation IPs with immersive experiences to attract families [5] - Wanda Film's strategic investment in 52TOYS is expected to enhance its non-ticket revenue and strengthen its market position in the IP toy sector [6][8] Market Trends - The demand for family-oriented experiences, as evidenced by the success of various IP-themed parks, highlights the resilience of the market amid evolving consumer preferences [9] - The integration of AI and innovative media is anticipated to amplify the commercial value of upstream IP and downstream channel enterprises [9]

2025 年 06 月 2 日 不确定中寻找确定性收益来源 —定量策略周观点总第 165 周 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点：关税博弈第三阶段，风险资产普遍已修复了关 税影响，短期似乎缺乏主线。展望下半年，拨开迷雾在不 确定中寻找相对确定，结合资产估值，当前市场仍能找到 合理的收益来源；首先是做空"美国例外论"，从市场和 基本面数据来看都未结束，港股、日股、德股以及黄金相 对 收 益 。 我 们 延续对 港 股 的 年 度 级别强 烈 推 荐 ， 恒指 21000-22000 点附近坚定寻找做多机会；日股和德股等待 关税谈判落地；黄金在 3150 美元反弹后进入上升旗形整 理，保持交易仓位等待下半年的新高机会。其次是美联储 二次降息，以及美债的底部配置价值。美国 30 年期国债收 益率在 5 月 22 日达到 5.14%的高点，随后小幅回落至 4.94%，随后日长债也开始反弹，短期或有一波长久期的 空头回补；后续破局仍需等待美联储再次降息，失业率升 破 4.4%可能是触发因素。短期虽较难看到美债长端明显下 滑，无论市场还是基本面数据都指向陡峭化，但短债配置 窗口一直存在。建议在美元走弱，QDII 美债基金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If equity - type value assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. This week, the report recommends the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][22]. - The Chinese economy is in a state of marginal balance sheet contraction. The liability growth rate of the real - sector and the government sector is expected to decline. The asset - side physical quantity data weakened in April, and it is necessary to focus on the duration of this economic marginal weakening [16][18]. - The US economic situation is similar to that during the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001. It is necessary to focus on whether and when the quarterly real GDP year - on - year growth rate in the US will fall below the trend level [6][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7%. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then return to balance sheet contraction. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [16]. - Last week, the net reduction of government bonds was 295 billion yuan, significantly lower than the planned net increase of 137.4 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 128.3 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of April 2025 was 14.8%, up from 13.9%. It is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline, reaching around 12.5% by the end of the year [17]. - The money market tightened marginally last week. The one - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.46% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [2][17]. - **Asset Side** - The physical quantity data in April was weaker than that in March. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, stocks fell while bonds were flat, and the style shifted to growth dominance. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds shifted towards bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.67%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.46%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.90% [5]. - Since the two sessions in 2025, the balance sheet of the real and government sectors is expected to return to contraction after reaching a high in April - May. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds will trend towards bonds in the contraction cycle, and the equity style will trend towards value [6][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of May 30, the top five crowded industries were pharmaceutical biology, computer, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobile, while the bottom five were comprehensive, coal, steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and social services. - The top five industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were computer, pharmaceutical biology, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense and military industry, while the top five with the largest decrease were automobile, non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, and household appliances. - The daily average trading volume of the whole A - share market decreased from 1.17 trillion yuan last week to 1.09 trillion yuan this week. Environmental protection, computer, power equipment, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [32][33]. - **Industry Valuation and Profit** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines. - As of May 30, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 0.92% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then fell to - 1.3% in May, while Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March rose to a relatively high level, fell significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - house sales were at a historical low, and second - hand house sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the fourth week of May (May 26 - 30), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of May 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is only slightly favorable to equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [7][63].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in June, overseas focus is on tariff negotiations, debt risks, and interest rate cut expectations, leading to a cautious outlook for US stocks, while domestic economic and policy observations show limited incremental highlights [3][11] - The A-share market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with a continuation of the "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend defense, domestic demand recovery, and technology growth [3][15] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sectors such as banking, public utilities, transportation, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and technology-driven industries like AI and semiconductors for potential investment opportunities [3][15] Group 2 - The report lists the top ten stocks for June, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, media, automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and power equipment [4][10] - Specific companies highlighted include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Juguang Technology, and Changchun Gaoxin, with each showing promising growth potential based on recent performance and market conditions [4][17][27] - The report provides earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating expected revenue growth for Lianchuang Optoelectronics from 32.91 billion to 45.04 billion from 2025 to 2027, and for Juguang Technology from 5.65 billion to 11.01 billion in the same period [21][27]

2025 年 06 月 02 日 美联储货币政策纪要担忧通胀和经济不确定性， 短期金价震荡为主 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | 1.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 | | 沪深 300 | 1.8 | -1.3 | 7.3 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：特朗普再 次宣布将对欧盟征收关税，避险情 绪升温推升金价》2025-05-26 2、《有色金属行业周报：下游开工 向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持 较强走势》2025-04-28 3、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 ▌黄金：美联储货币政策纪要担忧通胀和经济不确 定性，短期金价震荡为主 数据方面，美国 4 月耐用品订单环比初值今值-6.3%，预期- 7.8%，前值 7.6%。美国一季度实际 GDP 年化季环比修正值今 值-0.2%，预期-0.3%，前值-0.3%。美国一季度核心个人消费 支出(PCE ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its initial coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 4.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [6][12]. - The net profit is expected to recover to 0.552 billion yuan in 2024, compared to a loss of 0.27 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a significant turnaround [6][12]. - The company is expanding rapidly, with plans to open 300 new stores in 2025, contributing to its growth strategy [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 72.88%, with a decrease in raw material costs to 27.12% [6]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase to 1.28% in 2024, up by 2 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Market Expansion - By the end of 2024, the company plans to increase its store count to 1,008, with significant growth in new markets [7]. - The average daily sales per store are expected to reach 13,100 yuan, driven by a 10% increase in daily order volume [7]. Future Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.13 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 78 [10][12]. - Revenue is projected to grow to 5.666 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.34% [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a positive trend in its core business, with a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan in 2024 and 0.24 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a recovery from previous performance challenges [5]. - The company is exploring AI+education new business models in 2025, focusing on deepening its publishing and gaming sectors while collaborating with tech firms to enhance AI educational products [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.15 billion yuan, 5.77 billion yuan, and 6.50 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 0.74 billion yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.37 billion yuan [6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is 4.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4 billion yuan and a total share count of 835 million [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's main business revenue from book publishing was 3.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.37%, with youth book sales contributing 3.4 billion yuan [5]. - The company launched a self-developed educational book series in 2024, achieving over 10 million in sales volume in its first year, which is expected to be a new profit growth point [5]. Future Outlook - The company aims to build a digital education ecosystem by enhancing its core publishing and gaming businesses and leveraging AI technology for educational applications [5]. - The company is also investing in new technology and industries, including cultural creation and digital technology, to expand its business portfolio [5]. Profitability Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.09 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.16 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54.9, 39.0, and 29.4 [6][12].

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 65, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [5][8] - Key themes identified include Artificial Intelligence, Low Carbon, and Nuclear Power, each with specific developments and related companies highlighted [6] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 65, categorized as "relatively hot," indicating a favorable environment for investment [5][8] - Historical trends show that when sentiment falls below 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [8] Hot Themes Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence**: OpenAI's acquisition of AI hardware startup io for $6.5 billion aims to launch a revolutionary AI companion device, targeting the shipment of 100 million units by the end of 2026. Related companies include Rongxin Culture (301231) and Tom Cat (300459) [6] - **Low Carbon**: The recent approval of the "Green Low Carbon Development Action Plan for Manufacturing Industry (2025-2027)" emphasizes the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries. Related companies include Deen Precision (300780) and Antai Technology (000969) [6] - **Nuclear Power**: The U.S. is accelerating nuclear power approvals to regain global leadership, which may influence the supply and demand dynamics for natural uranium. Related companies include Rongfa Nuclear Power (002366) and Atlantic (600558) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, with Shanzi Gaoke (000981.SZ) leading at 710.98 million yuan, followed by Sifang Jingchuang (300468.SZ) at 667.21 million yuan [9] - Conversely, the top ten stocks with net outflows include Rongfa Nuclear Power (002366.SZ) with a net outflow of -764.03 million yuan, indicating investor caution in certain sectors [11] Industry Insights - The report highlights the top ten industries with net inflows, with the Computer sector leading at 189.23 million yuan, followed by Non-bank Financials at 96.61 million yuan [14] - In contrast, the Mechanical Equipment sector shows the highest net outflow at -122.89 million yuan, suggesting a bearish sentiment in that industry [14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company's main business is showing continuous improvement, with projected revenues of 5.15 billion, 5.77 billion, and 6.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a significant increase in net profit [5][6]. - The company is exploring AI+education new business models in 2025, focusing on deepening its core publishing and gaming businesses while collaborating with tech firms to enhance AI education products [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 4.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4 billion yuan and a 52-week price range of 2.21 to 5.55 yuan [2]. Business Development - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, with a revenue of 3.93 billion yuan from its publishing business, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.37% [5]. - The company launched a self-developed educational book series that generated over 10 million in sales in its first year, contributing to profit growth [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit shows a recovery from a previous decline, with expected figures of 0.74 billion, 1.03 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][9]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.04 yuan in 2024 to 0.16 yuan by 2027 [12]. Key Financial Metrics - The report highlights a projected revenue growth rate of 11.7% for 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 124.2% [9][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 28.3% in 2024 to 41.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [12].