Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [10][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing due to tariffs, while gold prices remain strongly supported [4]. - It notes that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four times in 2025, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [4]. - The report emphasizes that while copper and aluminum prices may experience fluctuations, the overall demand is improving, leading to a positive outlook for these metals [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 6.5% over the past month, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.6% [1]. Economic Data - In March, US manufacturing output increased by 0.3%, retail sales rose by 1.4%, and industrial production decreased by 0.3% [3][4]. - China's March imports decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while exports increased by 12.4% [5][27]. Gold Market - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10]. Copper and Aluminum Market - Copper prices are expected to remain stable with short-term demand improving, despite tariff impacts yet to fully transmit to upstream materials [7]. - Aluminum prices are projected to be strong due to high operational rates in the processing sector [8]. Tin and Antimony Market - Tin prices are expected to trend higher due to supply disruptions, while antimony prices are anticipated to rise due to tight raw material availability [10][11]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [11].

2025 年 04 月 21 日 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-18 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 11.08 | | 总市值（亿元） | 35 | | 总股本（百万股） | 320 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 320 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 6.79-11.46 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 61.73 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 天润乳业 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《天润乳业（600419）：二季度 经营承压，疆外市场开拓顺利》 2024-08-23 2、《天润乳业（600419）：利润端 承压，看好后续修复潜力》2024- 05-01 营收稳健彰显韧性，期待盈利能力修复 —天润乳业（600419.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 3、 ...

PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 被动外资增持港股， 推荐关注通信ETF ——指数基金投资+ 2025年4月21日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 p 【国内市场跟踪】本周成交持续缩量，周五市场成交仅9493亿刷新924以来地量。宽基ETF放量买入+361 亿元，4月18日国务院常务会议首次将稳股市放在稳楼市之前，政策端维稳意愿仍强，上证指数或四月底 完成缺口回补。风格层面，当前中美关税摩擦依旧是交易核心，叠加市场量能持续萎缩以及对4月底国内 政策是否超预期转为谨慎，大盘及配置价值更高，成交下行使得中证2000等小盘标的博弈价值下降。超预 期内需刺激政策和宽松货币政策出台前，保持防御底仓。 p 【港股市场周观点】港股本周市场情绪延续看空，卖空成交占比边际下行但依旧处于16.17%的阶段性高 位。但外资数据回暖，主动外资净卖出规模收窄至上周的三分之一，被动外资转为大幅净买入，模型整体 信号转多。由于护盘资金较少，当前港 ...

分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 社零数据超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻 推荐(维持) 投资要点 2025 年 04 月 21 日 行业新闻：1）1-3 月四川白酒产量下降 5.4%。2)1.5 亿元保 健酒项目落户宝鸡。 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | 0.9 | 5.3 | -3.1 | | 沪深 300 | -3.6 | -1.6 | 6.5 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 2、《食品饮料行业周报：外围环境 持续承压，期待消费需求回暖》 2025-04-13 3、《食品饮料行业周报：关税靴子 落地，白酒 ...

2025 年 04 月 21 日 关注优质底仓大盘以及临期转债 ▌市场展望与策略推荐 美国目前的情况与互联网泡沫破裂时（2001 年）非常相似， 川普政府一系列逆全球化操作，也正是上述经济背景下看似 偶然、实则必然的结果。从不好的一面来看，中国实际经济 增速将受到一定程度的冲击，具体影响尚有待观察；从好的 一面来看，美国主打的科技的估值或将被重新进行系统性的 重估，而中国也迎来了历史性的机遇，如果我们不忘初心、 文化自信，西降东升或已开启，重点关注人民币汇率是否开 始逐步进入升值通道。债市方面，一年期国债收益率基本接 券 研 究 报 告 固 定 收 益 研 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《价值权益资产仍最具性价比— —资产配置周报》2025-04-20 2、《转债表现出较强估值保护》 2025-04-13 3、《看多价值——资产配置周报》 2025-04-13 投资要点 ▌ 股债、转债市场回顾 上周权益市场仍受关税政策反复影响，防御情绪偏强，整体 缩量震荡，银 ...

2025 年 04 月 21 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：47 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 47 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：跨境支付、虚拟电厂、农业 1、跨境支付主题：关税政策增加了贸易的不确定性和成 本，企业需要更高效、稳定的支付系统来应对复杂的贸易环 境。CIPS 系统功能不断丰富，业务量稳步增长，网络覆盖的 广度和深度持续提升，能够为跨境贸易、投融资、金融市场 交易等各类型业务提供安全、高效、便捷的人民币跨境支付 服务。相关标的：跨境通（002640）、青岛金王（002094） 2、虚拟电厂主题：近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局 发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》。其中提 到，到 2027 年，虚拟电厂建设运行管理机制成熟规范，参与 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 天工 Ultra 夺得首次人形机器人马拉松冠军， 2025 上海车展建议关注主机厂新品 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) -13.8 0.3 17.3 沪深 300 -5.1 -1.5 6.5 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：首个人形机器 人马拉松即将开跑，双新政策推动 乘用车 3 月零售增长强劲》2025- 04-13 2、《汽车行业点评报告：美国加征 汽车关税，对中国汽车产业影响有 限》2025-04-11 3、《汽车行业周报：Optimus 下一 代执行器即将发布，自主车企 3 月 销量表现亮眼》2025-04-06 ▌首个人形机器人马拉松顺利完赛，关注机器人核 心环节投资机会 全球首个"人机共跑"半程马拉松在京完赛，天工 Ultra 夺 冠。4 月 19 日，全球首次"人机共跑"半程马拉松在北京成功 举办，标志着人形机器人技术取 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electrification and intelligent driving, with significant advancements in new models and technologies being showcased at the upcoming Shanghai Auto Show [9][10]. - The successful completion of the first humanoid robot marathon indicates substantial progress in humanoid robot technology, presenting investment opportunities in core components and algorithms [6][7]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has underperformed, with a 1-month decline of 13.8% compared to a 5.1% decline in the CSI 300 index [3][19]. - The automotive industry PE (TTM) is at 28.3, which is in the 15.7% percentile over the past four years, while the PB is at 2.6, in the 76.3% percentile [29]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong partnerships in intelligent driving and electrification, such as Seres, Jianghuai Automobile, and others [11][43]. - Investment opportunities in the humanoid robot sector include companies like Dual Lin Co., Best, and others involved in core components and algorithms [12][43]. Upcoming Events - The Shanghai International Auto Show is set to take place from April 23 to May 2, 2025, highlighting new models and technological advancements from various manufacturers [9][10]. Company Announcements - Dual Lin Co. reported significant revenue growth and profit increases, indicating strong performance in the automotive components sector [47]. - The report highlights the development of new products in humanoid robotics, including linear actuator modules and screw products, which are expected to drive future revenue [48][50].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve record highs in both revenue and net profit in 2024, with projected revenue of 11.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%, and a net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3]. - The "Miaoxiang" financial model, a significant innovation, has been integrated into the company's services, enhancing its capabilities in financial analysis and decision-making [4][6]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strong research and development capabilities to build a comprehensive internet wealth management ecosystem, which is expected to drive long-term growth [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.604 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, with significant growth in Q4 net profit of 35.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.66% [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.265 billion yuan, 14.653 billion yuan, and 16.485 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.80 yuan [7][9]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on an "AI + Finance" strategy, enhancing its technological capabilities to improve financial services and customer engagement [4][6]. - The integration of the "Miaoxiang" model into the company's operations is expected to streamline processes and improve efficiency in investment research and trading decisions [4]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic internet financial services sector, benefiting from a large user base and high user engagement [3][6]. - The report highlights the company's unique business model that combines various financial services, creating a robust competitive advantage in the market [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit of 581 million yuan, up 9% from the previous year [5]. - The gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.12% due to price adjustments aimed at enhancing cost-effectiveness, while employee costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to 27.29% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - The company expanded its store network, with a total of 106 stores in first-tier cities and 291 in third-tier cities by the end of 2024, contributing to a 34% increase in revenue from the takeaway business [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan, with a net profit of 581 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 15% and 9% respectively [5]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.58, 0.69, and 0.83 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [8][11]. Operational Efficiency - The company improved operational efficiency, leading to a reduction in employee costs as a percentage of revenue, while other operational costs such as utilities and advertising saw slight increases [6]. - The takeaway business revenue reached 2.00 billion yuan in 2024, driven by an increase in service outlets, while dine-in revenue was 3.19 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% increase [7]. Market Expansion - The company continued to expand its store presence, adding a net of 22, 40, 20, and 49 stores in first-tier, new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities respectively by the end of 2024 [7]. - The average consumer spending in various city tiers decreased, indicating a strategic price adjustment to maintain competitiveness [7].