非银金融 非银金融 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《大国崛起需建设金融强国，券商海 外业务迎发展良机—券商海外业务深 度研究》-2025.11.30 《公募 REITs 试点纳入商业不动产， 险企开门红向好 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 《开门红展望乐观，人身险产品费用 分摊指引发布—行业周报》-2025.11.23 ——吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞学习 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | | 事件：12 月 6 | 日吴清主席在中证协第八次会员大会致辞。 | 监管态度转向积极，对优质机构监管"松绑"，鼓励金融创新，鼓励并购 （1）杠杆放松，中小券商差异化监管："对优质机构监管'松绑'，进一步优化 风控指标，适度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of high-end skincare products in China, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% from 2024 to 2029 [28] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, is positioned to capitalize on this growth, having updated its IPO prospectus, indicating a potential acceleration in its capital process [25][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2310.07 points, down 0.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.37% [5][14] - Among the retail sub-sectors, the professional chain segment saw the largest increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 20.56% rise [17][20] Company Focus: Lin Qingxuan - Lin Qingxuan achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.3%, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 109.9% [25][28] - The brand's core product, camellia oil, has dominated the facial oil sales market for 11 consecutive years, establishing a strong market presence [25][28] - Lin Qingxuan's online and offline revenue contributions were 65.4% and 34.6%, respectively, with a total of 554 stores, the highest among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [25][28] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [6][32] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][32] - Investment Theme 4: Target differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical beauty institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][32] Company Performance Highlights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD in FY2026H1, a slight decline of 1.1%, but a net profit increase of 0.1% [39][40] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 6.237 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 28.4%, with a net profit increase of 0.3% [42] - The report notes that companies like Proya and Marubi have shown strong performance in the beauty sector, with Proya's revenue reaching 7.098 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 1.9% [34][35]

《商业航天有望进入高速发展期—行 业周报》-2025.11.30 《商业航天三年行动计划出台，关注 行 业 投 资 机 会 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.11.28 《周观点：AI 产业持续繁荣—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 计算机 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 重视商业航天产业大趋势 ——行业周报 陈宝健（分析师） chenbaojian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520080001 市场回顾： 本周（2025.12.1-2025.12.5），沪深 300 指数上涨 1.28%，计算机指数下降 1.73%。 周观点：重视商业航天产业大趋势 朱雀三号重复使用运载火箭发射入轨，商业航天市场蓝海可期 12 月 3 日，朱雀三号遥一运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射升空，按程 序完成了飞行任务，火箭二级进入预定轨道。本次任务虽未实现预定火箭一级回 收目标，但检验了朱雀三号运载火箭测试、发 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The communication industry continues to show high prosperity, driven by advancements in AI and satellite technology, as well as significant developments in domestic computing power [10][19] - Amazon's AWS introduced several AI products, including the Trainium3 chip and the Nova 2 model series, showcasing impressive performance improvements [13][15] - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant step in China's private aerospace sector, focusing on reusable rocket technology [17] - The listing of Moer Technology as the first domestic GPU company injects new momentum into the domestic computing power sector, with a market capitalization of 282.3 billion [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - Amazon's AWS launched new AI products, including advanced chips and models [13] - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI aims to enhance optical connectivity in data centers [16] - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its mission, validating key technologies [17] - Moer Technology's IPO represents a milestone for domestic GPU development [18] - Investment recommendations focus on "light, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power" as core themes [19] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of October 2025, China has 4.758 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 507,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.184 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.99% [28] - 5G mobile phone shipments in September 2025 were 24.106 million units, accounting for 86.3% of total shipments, with a year-on-year growth of 8.02% [28] 3. Operator Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud revenue for the same period was 57.3 billion, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for the three major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The report suggests that December 2025 bond yields are likely to rise, as historical patterns indicate that December yields typically decline only during a bond bull market or after significant increases in November yields, neither of which applies to 2025 [3][10][12] - The analysis indicates that the bond market in 2025 is not in a bull phase, and the yield curve has steepened, contradicting the conditions for a typical December yield decline [9][11] - Historical years with similar yield patterns to 2025, such as 2006 and 2009, experienced rising yields in December, reinforcing the expectation for December 2025 [13] Group 2: Fund Management and Asset Allocation - In November 2025, a total of 131 fund advisory products adjusted their allocations, with significant increases in coal, electric equipment, and basic chemicals sectors, while reducing exposure to pharmaceuticals, electronics, and non-ferrous metals [17] - The performance of various fund types in November showed that pure bond and multi-asset advisory products performed relatively well, while equity assets underperformed [15][16] - The report highlights that the overall absolute return averages for different fund types in November were: pure bond (0.1%), multi-asset (-0.2%), and equity (-1.8%) [15] Group 3: Beauty and Aesthetic Medicine Industry - The aesthetic medicine sector saw notable stock performance in November, with *ST Suwu leading at +25.3%, followed by Langzi and Huadong Pharmaceutical [28] - The beauty sector also performed well, with Kedi and Jiaheng Home Care showing significant gains of +18.9% and +13.0%, respectively [28] - The report discusses the strategic acquisition of 100% of Siyanli by Meili Tianyuan, which consolidates three leading brands in the beauty service industry, enhancing competitive positioning [31][33] Group 4: E-commerce and Consumer Trends - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 generated a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, marking a 14.2% increase from 2024, with beauty products achieving a GMV of 1,325 billion yuan [32] - The report notes that domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu dominated sales during the festival, indicating a strong market presence for local products [32] - Consumer trends show a shift towards high-value and efficacy-driven beauty products, with premium segments experiencing notable growth [32]

魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 金融工程定期 2025 年 12 月 04 日 金融工程研究团队 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《基金投顾产品 10 月调仓一览》 -2025.11.6 《从投顾调仓行为出发构建 FOF 策 略》-2023.12.30 《基金投顾的全方位解析及 FOF 策 略 构建》-2023.9.26 基金投顾产品 11 月调仓一览 ——基金投顾产品月报系列（24） 魏建榕（分析师） 傅开波（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 fukaibo@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090003 业绩统计：2025 年 ...

——行业深度报告 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 2025 年 12 月 04 日 存款偏离与指标问题对当前司库策略的影响 司库负债策略讲究头寸、指标与成本的三面平衡 平头寸（补齐流动性缺口）：1、当期缺口：总行需根据经营机构报备的每日走回 款情况，对全行当日资金余缺进行调剂。2、预期缺口——基于银行对资负两端 现金流预判，评估未来一段时间内可预见的流动性缺口，有以下几种模式：（1） 负债稳健，长期资产投放型，国有行为主。（2）中期融资压力型：3M-1Y 负缺 口突出，对市场利率波动敏感。（3）滚动融资压力型：1M 以内负缺口占比较大。 流动性风险指标：需满足 LCR、NSFR、LR、LMR 和存款准备金率等指标要求。 负债成本管理是"效益线"：通过 FTP 等定价工具引导综合负债成本优化。 行 业 研 究 同业存单的资金属性或逐渐减弱，定价更多反映银行内部管理诉求。下阶段， 因司库的成本管控诉求增强，其用于调控缺口和指标的市场化资金来源几乎 ...

12 月债券收益率或上行 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） liuwei1@kysec.cn chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 12 月债券收益率的历史规律 2017 年以来，历史统计 10 年国债收益率在 12 月整体以下行为主，或是很多债 券投资者在 11 月布局长债的逻辑之一。 观察 2007-2016 年 12 月债券收益率下行年份，大致可以归纳为两种情况：（1） 当年债券牛市的延续，比如，2008 年、2011 年、2015 年；（2）对 9-11 月债券收 益率明显上行的修复，比如，2007 年、2011 年。 具体来看，2007 年 9-11 月收益率大幅上行，12 月小幅下行；2008 年债券收益率 低位震荡；2010 年 10-11 月收益率大幅上行，12 月小幅下行；2011 年收益率低 位震荡；2015 年全年债券牛市。 2025 年债券收益率走势的节奏 观察 2025 年至今的债券收益率走势，（1）2025 年 1-11 月债券收益率难言下行， 反而是陡峭化的收益率上行，与第一种情况不符，即当前债券并非牛市走势；（2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of 100% equity of Siyuanli by Meili Tianyuan for 1.25 billion RMB, which consolidates the top three brands in the Chinese beauty service industry, enhancing market share and competitive positioning [8][37] - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 1.695 trillion RMB, a 14.2% increase from 2024, with beauty products generating 132.5 billion RMB in sales [9][41] - The report emphasizes the trend of "emotional consumption" driving growth in high-quality companies within the medical beauty and cosmetics sectors [10][66] Summary by Sections Medical Beauty - Meili Tianyuan's acquisition of Siyuanli aims to create a "triple strong alliance" in the high-end beauty market, with a projected market share increase in 20 major cities [8][37] - The report recommends focusing on upstream medical beauty product manufacturers and expanding chain medical beauty institutions, highlighting companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B as key investment targets [10][66] Cosmetics - The Double Eleven sales performance was strong, with beauty products leading the way, particularly domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu, which dominated sales across multiple platforms [9][41][48] - The report identifies a shift towards high-priced and multifunctional skincare products, with a significant increase in sales for premium beauty items during the festival [57][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, particularly domestic brands like Proya, Shangmei, and Marumi, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [10][66] - It also highlights the importance of integrating AI technology into e-commerce platforms to enhance consumer experience and operational efficiency [62][66]

Group 1: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power demand is stable, driven by the "dual carbon" goals and the 2035 plan for 360 GW of installed capacity, with a projected addition of 86.99 GW in 2024 and a total of 272.1 GW from 2021 to 2024, significantly higher than the 145.5 GW added during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [7][8][9] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for annual new installed capacity of no less than 120 GW, with offshore wind power expected to contribute at least 15 GW annually, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the wind power sector [7][8] - The industry is recovering from price wars, with a 9% increase in the average bid price for onshore wind projects in 2025 compared to 2024, suggesting improved profitability for wind turbine manufacturers [9] Group 2: Retail Industry - The retail sector is slowly recovering in 2025, with segments like high-end gold and fashion jewelry experiencing higher demand due to rising gold prices, while cosmetics and medical aesthetics face intense competition [13][15] - "Emotional consumption" is identified as a key driver of market dynamics, with a focus on brands that can leverage consumer insights and differentiate their products [13][15] - Investment strategies should prioritize high-quality segments with both short-term recovery potential and long-term growth prospects, emphasizing companies with competitive advantages and brand strength [13][15] Group 3: Coal Mining Industry - Yongtai Energy's Hai Zetan coal mine project is progressing ahead of schedule, with plans to repurchase shares worth 300-500 million yuan for cancellation, signaling confidence in long-term growth [20][21][22] - The Hai Zetan project has significant resource advantages, with reserves of 1.145 billion tons and a planned production capacity of 6 million tons per year, expected to reach 10 million tons annually upon completion [21][22] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 580 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 0.03, 0.05, and 0.07 yuan [20][21] Group 4: Chemical Industry - Wankai New Materials is advancing its rPET and oxalic acid projects, which are expected to drive diversified growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [5][23] - The rPET project, in collaboration with Carbios, aims for an initial capacity of 50,000 tons, with a total investment of approximately 922 million yuan, showcasing strong partnership commitment [23][24] - The oxalic acid project, utilizing low-cost natural gas, aims to establish a production capacity of 100,000 tons, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [24]