金盘科技（688676.SH）2025 年一季报点评 现金流改善明显，推进"内外双循环"市场布局 2025 年 04 月 24 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 23 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报。2025 年 Q1 公司实 现营业收入 13.43 亿元，同比+2.9%；实现归母净利润 1.07 亿元，同比+13.32%； 实现扣非净利润 0.99 亿元，同比-2.56%。 ➢ 下游结构有所优化，新业务持续贡献增量。得益于公司长期实施的多元化战 略布局，以数据中心为代表的新基建等非新能源业务实现显著增长，2024 年非 新能源领域收入为 37.12 亿元，同比增长 31.02%，其中新型基础设施行业销售 收入增长 167.43%，对公司形成有效业绩支撑；2025 年 Q1 公司营收总体增长 2.9%，但数据中心、风能等优势下游销售收入递增明显。在数据中心领域，公司 可提供 AIDC 模块化电源装备（包含变压器，成套开关电力模块、能源管理等产 品），客户涵盖阿里巴巴、百度、华为、中国移动、中国联通等知名企业。2024 年，公司数据中心订单同比增长 603.68%，2025 年公司数据中心等新下游具备 充足 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 86.88 yuan [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million yuan, up 26.5% year-on-year [1]. - The growth was driven by the success of key products such as konjac, quail eggs, and dried fruits, with significant contributions from the distribution and e-commerce channels [2]. - The report highlights the company's multi-category supply chain advantages and comprehensive marketing network as key factors supporting consumer reach and performance growth [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 30.7%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 12.1%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [1]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected revenues of 6.46 billion yuan, 7.72 billion yuan, and 9.49 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 860 million yuan, 1.04 billion yuan, and 1.27 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 34.8%, 20.7%, and 21.8% respectively [4][5].

金盘科技（688676.SH）2025 年一季报点评 现金流改善明显，推进"内外双循环"市场布局 2025 年 04 月 24 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 23 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报。2025 年 Q1 公司实 现营业收入 13.43 亿元，同比+2.9%；实现归母净利润 1.07 亿元，同比+13.32%； 实现扣非净利润 0.99 亿元，同比-2.56%。 ➢ 下游结构有所优化，新业务持续贡献增量。得益于公司长期实施的多元化战 略布局，以数据中心为代表的新基建等非新能源业务实现显著增长，2024 年非 新能源领域收入为 37.12 亿元，同比增长 31.02%，其中新型基础设施行业销售 收入增长 167.43%，对公司形成有效业绩支撑；2025 年 Q1 公司营收总体增长 2.9%，但数据中心、风能等优势下游销售收入递增明显。在数据中心领域，公司 可提供 AIDC 模块化电源装备（包含变压器，成套开关电力模块、能源管理等产 品），客户涵盖阿里巴巴、百度、华为、中国移动、中国联通等知名企业。2024 年，公司数据中心订单同比增长 603.68%，2025 年公司数据中心等新下游具备 充足 ...

2025Q1 经营承压 机器人进度明确 2025 年 04 月 24 日 净利：2025Q1 公司归母净利润为 4.1 亿美元，non-GAAP 净利润为 9.3 亿 美元，同比/环比分别为-39.2%/-55.7%。 ➢ 营收同比下滑 盈利能力下降 营收端：2025Q1 公司总收入 193.4 亿美元，同比/环比分别为-9.2%/- 24.8%，其中汽车业务收入为 139.7 亿美元，同比/环比分别为-19.6%/-29.5%。 单车 ASP 方面，剔除新能源积分收入后，2025Q1 单车 ASP 同比下降至 3.97 万 美元，主要原因为产品销售激励措施。总收入减少主要原因为 2025Q1 Model Y 生产线更新，导致部分生产损失，Model 3/Y 交付量下滑至 32.4 万辆，同比- 12.4%，环比-31.4%。 利润端：2025Q1 公司在 GAAP 准则下净利润为 4.2 亿美元，non-GAAP 净利润为 9.3 亿美元，同比/环比分别为-39.2%/-55.7%。单车净利润方面， 2025Q1，公司 non-GAAP 单车净利润为 2,774.1 美元，较 2024Q4 下降 2403. ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that major foreign trade provinces in China are actively responding to tariff risks and are attempting to navigate through challenges posed by "Trade Conflict 2.0" [3][4] - It emphasizes the uneven development of foreign trade across regions, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Shanghai accounting for nearly 70% of the national export volume, indicating that the impact of trade conflicts varies significantly across provinces [4][7][8] Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - The negative impact of exports on the economy is becoming increasingly evident in major foreign trade provinces, with export growth rates in these provinces starting to converge with those of other regions, indicating a weakening "export rush" [4][6] - Among the five major provinces, Guangdong has experienced the slowest overall export growth, which correlates with its underwhelming economic performance in the first quarter [4][12] Resilience Against Trade Shocks - The report assesses resilience against future trade shocks through three perspectives: product diversification, reliance on exports to the U.S., and internal demand strength [4][5] - In terms of product diversification, Shandong and Zhejiang rank highest, suggesting they face relatively lower export downward pressure in the second quarter [4][5][15] - Regarding reliance on U.S. exports, Shandong has the lowest dependency, which may mitigate its export decline compared to other provinces [5][17][18] Internal Demand and Consumption - The report notes that provinces with high export ratios have increasingly relied on domestic consumption to support economic growth, especially following the first trade conflict in 2018 [6][21] - Recent data shows that Jiangsu and Shandong have outperformed the national average in retail sales growth, indicating stronger internal demand [6][20] - The effectiveness of upcoming consumption-boosting policies will be crucial, particularly for provinces like Guangdong and Shanghai, which are currently lagging [6][20][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% relative to benchmark indices [4]. Core Insights - The swine industry shows stable breeding profits, with a focus on capacity reduction logic. The average price of external three yuan pigs was 15.0 CNY/kg, up 2.1% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs sold was 128.6 kg, down 0.2% [19][20]. - The beef industry is at an inflection point, with strong price performance continuing. The average price of calves was 28.2 CNY/kg, up 2.1%, and the average price of fattened cattle was 25.8 CNY/kg, up 0.7% [23][30]. - The white chicken market is affected by ongoing avian influenza, with significant impacts on breeding stock and prices. The average price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.8 CNY/chick, up 9.5% [31][34]. - The animal health sector is seeing a recovery in demand as breeding supply stabilizes, with a notable increase in the issuance of vaccines [48][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of external three yuan pigs was 15.0 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1%. The average weight of pigs sold was 128.6 kg, down 0.2%. The price of 15 kg external three yuan piglets was 668 CNY/head, with a slight decrease of 0.05% [19][21]. - Supply pressure remains stable, with normal sales rhythms from large producers and limited sales from smallholders. The demand side shows increased activity from secondary breeding, but overall consumption remains weak [20][21]. - The report recommends companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe for investment [20]. Beef Industry - The beef breeding industry is entering a capacity release phase, with the earliest signs of a price bottom forming. The report anticipates a potential recovery in the industry by late 2025 or early 2026 [23][30]. - The average wholesale price of beef was 61.4 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% [29][30]. - Recommended companies include Fucheng Co. and Guangming Meat Industry, focusing on integrated breeding and sales [23]. Poultry Industry - The average price of white feather broiler eggs was 1.6 CNY/egg, up 2.0%, while the average price of white feather broilers was 3.7 CNY/kg, up 2.2% [31][34]. - The report highlights the impact of avian influenza on breeding imports, particularly from the U.S. and New Zealand, which has been suspended for over three months [31][32]. - Recommended companies include Yisheng Livestock and He Feng Food [31]. Animal Health Sector - The demand for animal health products is expected to recover as breeding supply stabilizes. The issuance of vaccines has shown significant increases, particularly for swine diseases [48][49]. - The report recommends companies like Kexin Biological and Zhongmu Biotechnology, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in the animal health market [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.937 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, up 35.7% year-on-year [1][2] - The 2025 revenue forecast is set at 12.7 billion yuan, representing a 28% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year [2] - The company is experiencing significant growth in its electric control business, with a notable increase in net profit margins [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity for key products, including electronic parking brakes (EPB) and line control braking systems, to alleviate capacity constraints [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.8% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 21.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [3] - The company’s subsidiary, Berteli Electronics, reported a net profit of 166 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 182% year-on-year [2] Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and customer base, adding 8 new clients in 2024, with key clients like Chery and Geely seeing sales growth of 38.4% and 27.6% respectively [2] - The company plans to establish a new production base in Morocco and has been expanding its operations in Mexico since 2020 [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.075 billion yuan, 17.089 billion yuan, and 22.044 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.594 billion yuan, 2.104 billion yuan, and 2.793 billion yuan [5][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.63 yuan, 3.47 yuan, and 4.60 yuan respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 17, and 13 [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 112.10 [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned for rapid growth in the building block toy market, leveraging its competitive advantages in product quality, pricing, and channel expansion [4][3]. - The building block toy market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.0% from 2023 to 2028, significantly outpacing non-building block toys [4][47]. - The company holds a 30.3% market share in China, making it the largest player in the local market and the third largest globally in the building block character toy segment [4][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started with large particle building toys and has evolved into a leader in building block character toys, focusing on high-quality and reasonably priced products [1]. - It has established a comprehensive sales network in China and is actively expanding into global markets [1]. Market Growth - The building block toy market is a rapidly growing segment within the global toy market, with a projected CAGR of 15.0% from 2023 to 2028 [4][47]. - The company is currently the largest building block character toy company in China, with a market share of 30.3% [4][58]. Competitive Advantages - The company differentiates itself through rapid product iteration and a strong focus on quality, allowing it to effectively penetrate school-side stores [3]. - It has a rich portfolio of IP resources, including partnerships with brands like Ultraman, which enhances its product offerings [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 4.1 billion in 2025, growing to RMB 7.4 billion by 2027 [5]. - The net profit is forecasted to improve significantly, with estimates of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025 and RMB 2.1 billion in 2027 [5]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the company is in a phase of rapid expansion and has the core competencies to penetrate school-side channels effectively [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from expanding its female customer base and international market growth, with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 24X in 2025 to 13X in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported 2024 revenue of 9.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, up 35.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 3.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.8% [1][2]. - The company expects 2025 revenue to reach 12.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year [2]. - The company is benefiting from increased sales from key customers, with Chery and Geely's sales growing by 38.4% and 27.6% respectively in 2024. Additionally, the company added 8 new customers and saw significant sales growth in key products [2][3]. - The company is advancing in smart and electric vehicle technologies, becoming the first domestic supplier to mass-produce line control braking systems and planning to expand production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 21.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The fourth quarter gross margin was 20.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 12.17% in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit from its subsidiary, Bertley Electronics, which saw a net profit of 166 million yuan, up 182% year-on-year [2][3]. Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on smart and electric vehicle technologies, with plans to produce 1 million line control braking systems and expand its electric parking brake (EPB) production capacity [3][4]. - The company is also expanding its global footprint, with plans for new production bases in Morocco and Mexico, enhancing its international presence [3][4]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.075 billion yuan in 2025, 17.089 billion yuan in 2026, and 22.044 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.594 billion yuan, 2.104 billion yuan, and 2.793 billion yuan respectively [5][10]. - The report indicates that the company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 1.99 yuan in 2024 to 4.60 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 30 in 2024 to 13 in 2027 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [8][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.612 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 801 million yuan, up 6.44% year-on-year [3][9]. - The superconducting product segment continues to grow rapidly, with revenue reaching 1.304 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.41% [4][7]. - The titanium alloy business shows signs of recovery, with revenue of 2.752 billion yuan in 2024, up 9.87% year-on-year [4][7]. - The high-temperature alloy segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 31.02% year-on-year to 327 million yuan in 2024 [4][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 422 million yuan for 2024, reflecting confidence in its operations [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.377 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.39% and a year-on-year increase of 28.64% [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.074 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.04% but a year-on-year increase of 35.31% [3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.55%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year [5][9]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.010 billion, 1.204 billion, and 1.454 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 26, and 21 [8][9]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company holds a leading position in the high-end titanium alloy and superconducting product markets, with significant growth expected from new capacity expansions [8][9]. - The successful delivery of superconducting materials for domestic nuclear fusion projects and the establishment of a strong foothold in the aerospace sector for titanium alloys are notable achievements [7][8]. - The company is set to increase its production capacity for titanium alloys to 10,000 tons and high-temperature alloys to 6,000 tons, indicating strong growth potential [7][8].