Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the following PE and PB ratios: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 PE at 11.7x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 62% and 40% - CSI 300 PE at 13.9x, PB at 1.4x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 31% - CSI 500 PE at 32.7x, PB at 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 45% - CSI 1000 PE at 46.6x, PB at 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 66% and 45% - National Index 2000 PE at 59.8x, PB at 2.6x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 60% - ChiNext Index PE at 40.7x, PB at 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 35% and 59% - Sci-Tech 50 PE at 152.3x, PB at 6x, at historical percentiles of 96% and 63% - ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE at 2.9x, PB at 3.6x, at historical percentiles of 23% and 58% [2][3][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Real Estate, Retail Trade, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Electronics (Semiconductors) and Telecommunications - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include: - Medical Services [2][3][7] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: - Upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% - Demand expected to remain weak before the Spring Festival, limiting price increases - Batteries: - Cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively - Lithium prices show an upward trend, with lithium hexafluorophosphate up 0.3% and carbonate up 3.4% - New Energy Vehicles: - Retail sales of new energy vehicles grew 4.2% year-on-year in November 2025, but growth rate slowed [2][3][6] Real Estate Chain - Steel: - Rebar prices down 1.3% and futures down 3.1% - Daily crude steel production down 6.5% month-on-month - Building Materials: - Cement price index up 0.1%, while glass prices down 2.5% [2][3][6] Consumption - Pork: - Average price of live pigs up 2.5%, while wholesale pork price down 1.0% - Baijiu: - Wholesale price index up 0.02%, but prices for premium brands like Moutai down significantly [2][3][6] Cyclical Industries - Non-ferrous Metals: - LME copper down 1.0%, aluminum down 0.9%, while zinc up 1.3% - Oil: - Brent crude oil futures down 4.1% to $61.22 per barrel - Coal: - Prices for thermal coal down 5.1% due to increased supply [2][3][6]

-纺织服装行业周报 20251214 相关研究 《Nike 调整架构以贴近市场,看好运动产 业链机会——纺织服装行业周报 20251207》 2025/12/07 《 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、 看好全球制造——纺织服装行业周报 20251123》 2025/11/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 册 深夜市 纺织服员饰 游戏人分点 2025 年 12 月 14 日 寒潮催化下看好波司登，Nike 修复看好运动制造 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 行业点评 1. 本周纺织服饰板块弱于市场 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。12 月 8 日～12 月 12 日 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 62nd and 40th historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 13.9x and a PB of 1.4x, at the 61st and 31st historical percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.7x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 35th and 59th historical percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 152.3x and a PB of 6x, at the 96th and 63rd historical percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Economic Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% and spot prices unchanged [2] - Battery materials show mixed trends, with cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively, while lithium prices have increased significantly over the past quarter [2] - The demand for new energy vehicles has seen a year-on-year retail sales increase of 4.2%, although this is a slowdown compared to previous months [2] Real Estate Chain - The steel market has seen a decline in rebar prices by 1.3% and futures by 3.1%, with iron ore prices also down 0.9% [3] - Cement prices have increased slightly by 0.1%, while glass prices have decreased by 2.5% [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs has increased by 2.5%, while wholesale pork prices have decreased by 1.0% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor has shown a slight increase, but specific brands like Moutai have seen price drops [3] Cyclical Industries - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has influenced commodity prices, with gold and silver prices rising [3] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 4.1%, attributed to geopolitical developments [3] - Coal prices have also declined due to increased supply and inventory levels [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][20]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic judgment for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic improvement, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [6][7]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to combat "involution" in competition, which is expected to benefit the chemical industry through optimized capacity and improved profitability [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the refrigerant market, with specific quotas set for 2026, and suggests focusing on companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyangguang [6][7]. - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to enter a golden age, driven by the rapid deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations, with a projected market size of 60 billion yuan for ceramic shells [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays, while demand is stabilizing, leading to a forecast of sustained low oil prices [7]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates export facility construction [6][7]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, benefiting from the "involution" policy [6][20]. - Key materials for growth are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][20]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the chemical sector, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global crude oil surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day for the current year [4][17]. - The EIA has kept its 2025-2026 crude oil price forecasts unchanged at $69 and $55 per barrel, respectively, while raising its natural gas price forecasts for the same years [5][11]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations of improved market conditions [19]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecasts - IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, driven by positive macroeconomic and trade outlooks [11][12]. - OPEC forecasts a demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][58]. - EIA anticipates a rise in global oil and other liquid fuel consumption by 1.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.23 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][17]. Supply Forecasts - EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for the current year by 200,000 barrels per day, while IEA has lowered its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [14][17]. - EIA projects a global oil production increase of 3.01 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.25 million barrels per day in 2026 [15][17]. - OPEC anticipates a growth in non-OPEC oil supply of 1 million barrels per day in 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [58]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the latest closing price at $61.12 per barrel, reflecting a 4.13% week-on-week decline [27]. - The report notes a slight increase in U.S. oil rig counts, with 548 rigs reported as of December 12, 2025 [40]. Downstream Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $19.82 per barrel [4]. - Polyester sector profitability is mixed, with PTA prices declining while polyester filament prices are on the rise [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19][22]. - It also suggests focusing on high-dividend yield companies like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started to utilize the RMB 50 billion carry-over quota. As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 95.5% and 102.7% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 96.2% and 103.4%. The carry-over quota of RMB 2 trillion for special bonds to replace hidden debts has been fully issued [2]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period are similar to the previous period, and it is expected to decline significantly in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period has been extended [2]. - The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has widened for 10-year bonds and narrowed for 30-year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month-on-month. Attention should be paid to the cost-effectiveness of current 10/15-year local bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The current issuance volume of local bonds has decreased, and the weighted issuance term has been extended - The current period (December 8 - 14, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of local bonds of RMB 106.955 billion/RMB 62.187 billion (compared to RMB 108.717 billion/RMB 60.494 billion in the previous period). The next period (December 15 - 21, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 40.037 billion/RMB 28.157 billion. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period is 12.52 years, an extension from 11.22 years in the previous period [2][8][10]. - As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 95.5% and 102.7% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 96.2% and 103.4%. The part exceeding 100% may come from the RMB 50 billion carry-over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeded the original RMB 4.4 trillion quota by RMB 12.02 billion/RMB 14.95 billion [2][13][16]. - In December 2025, the planned issuance of local bonds totals RMB 168.2 billion, including RMB 50.5 billion of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 12, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed a planned issuance of RMB 168.2 billion of local bonds, including RMB 50.5 billion of new special-purpose bonds. The issuance in the same regions in the same period last year was RMB 420.3 billion and RMB 0.8 billion respectively, and the national issuance in the same period last year was RMB 1091.3 billion and RMB 2.11 billion respectively [2][24][25]. - In the current period, RMB 7.3 billion of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, and RMB 0 billion and RMB 16.8 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. The quota of RMB 2 trillion for special bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2][20][21]. 2. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds in the current period has widened for 10-year bonds and narrowed for 30-year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month-on-month - As of December 12, 2025, the spreads between 10-year and 30-year local bonds and treasury bonds were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively, widening by 4.84BP and narrowing by 6.16BP compared to December 5, 2025 (which were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively), and were at the 79.00% and 68.00% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][28][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period is 0.86%, a month-on-month decrease from 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10-year local bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Tianjin are better than the national average [2][39][40]. - Taking 10-year local bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. The current upper and lower limits of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP and 5 - 10BP respectively [2].

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, increasing by 5 basis points this week[9] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.59%, currently at 98.4[9] Equity Market Performance - The ChiNext, German, and Korean stock markets saw significant gains, while the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech indices declined[3] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the ChiNext Index up by 2.7% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.34%[8] Commodity Trends - Gold prices surged by 2.13% this week, while oil prices fell by 3.97% due to the resumption of production in key Iraqi oil fields[3] - The GSCI index for precious metals maintained a risk-adjusted return percentile of 100%[3] Capital Flows - In the week ending December 10, 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market was $4.29 million, while domestic capital outflow was $0.84 million[3] - U.S. fixed income funds saw a significant inflow of $51.3 billion this week[14] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at 83.8% of its historical average PE ratio over the past decade, indicating relative attractiveness compared to U.S. equities[3] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 remains at 43%, while the Nasdaq's has decreased from 38% to 33%[3] Economic Indicators - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November dropped to 51.0, indicating weakening consumer confidence[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is currently at 75.60%, down from 86.20% the previous week[3]

Group 1 - Market sentiment score continued to decline, reaching 1.35 as of December 12, down from 2.4 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [2][8] - The overall trading volume in the market increased significantly, with total trading volume for the week rising by 15.14% compared to the previous week, averaging 19,530.44 billion yuan per day, with a peak of 21,190.10 billion yuan on December 12 [14][16] - The industry score model indicates that sectors such as non-bank financials, communication, defense, and automotive are showing upward trends in short-term scores, with communication having the highest short-term score of 77.97 [40][41] Group 2 - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is strong, with a coefficient of 0.33, indicating that sectors with high congestion like communication and defense are leading in gains, while sectors with low congestion like steel and environmental protection are lagging [45][46] - The current model suggests a preference for large-cap and growth styles, with signals indicating that growth style may strengthen further in the future [40][51] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in risk appetite [26][28]

纺织服饰 行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 14 日 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 寒潮催化下看好波司登，Nike 修复看好运动制造 中性 ——纺织服装行业周报 20251214 相关研究 《Nike 调整架构以贴近市场，看好运动产 业链机会——纺织服装行业周报 20251207》 2025/12/07 《 本周重磅发布策略报告，挖掘新消费、 看好全球制造——纺织服装行业周报 20251123》 2025/11/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 本期投资提示： 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 / 行 业 ⚫ 本周纺织 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly on the mid-to-high-end market and the used car market, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Views - The industry is experiencing substantial progress in countering "involution," with the State Administration for Market Regulation's pricing management measures reflecting a strong commitment to control [2]. - A three-year price increase cycle is anticipated, with effective demand release in the mid-to-high-end market and companies with overseas expansion strategies mitigating domestic pressures [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as BAIC, JAC, Xiaopeng, and NIO, as well as used car enterprises like Uxin, which are expected to benefit from the price increase cycle [2]. Industry Situation Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of December were 42,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month-on-month decrease of 8% [2]. - Recent weeks have seen a decline in traditional and new energy raw material price indices, with traditional car raw material prices down by 1.8% week-on-week and 0.6% month-on-month, while new energy raw material prices decreased by 1.2% week-on-week but increased by 0.9% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value in the automotive industry for the week was 469.021 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 11.32% [2]. Market Situation Update - The automotive industry index closed at 7662.00 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [2]. - A total of 90 stocks in the industry rose, while 180 fell, with the largest gainers being Chaojie Co., Huamao Technology, and Yueling Co., which increased by 39.0%, 28.5%, and 21.9% respectively [2]. Important Events - The continuation of national subsidy policies is expected to provide stable support for consumption and industrial upgrades [3]. - The focus on countering "involution" has been elevated to a key reform task, indicating a shift towards regulating market competition and improving profitability structures [5]. - The smart driving sector is transitioning into a phase of large-scale commercialization, with ecosystem collaboration becoming crucial for development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies involved in smart technology like Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise reforms and recommends attention to SAIC Motor and Dongfeng Motor [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and overseas expansion capabilities in the parts sector, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Newquay, are also recommended [2].