Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][7][10] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 26.78%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 16.76% [10] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "discontinuity" indicates a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.85%, with an annualized excess return of 27.60% over the benchmark [13] - The cumulative absolute return for the current year is 35.72%, outperforming the benchmark index by 25.70% [14] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing factors like PBROE and PEG to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [15][17] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 16.82% relative to the CSI 300 index [17][19] - The portfolio's performance this week yielded an excess return of 0.31% [17]

Group 1 - The report highlights the successful listing of the Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT on July 25, with a total issuance scale of 3.685 billion yuan and a duration of 16 years, marking it as the first REIT project in China focused on "headquarters economy" [1][7] - The underlying asset, Shounong Yuan Center, has been transformed into a LEED Platinum certified technology innovation industrial park, covering an area of 203,600 square meters, with an average occupancy rate exceeding 94% over the past three years [1][7] - During the issuance phase, the REIT received significant investor interest, with total subscription amounts reaching 231.6 billion yuan, setting a new record for subscription amounts for Beijing state-owned enterprise REITs [1][7] Group 2 - In the market performance segment, the report notes that the overall REITs market declined, with the Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT leading gains at +28.47%, while the CSI REITs total return index fell by 1.56% [2][15] - The report indicates that the REITs total index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index by 3.98 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.79 percentage points [2][15] - Individual REITs such as Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT, Bosera Tianjin Kai Industrial Park REIT, and China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation REIT showed notable gains, while others like CITIC Construction Investment Mingyang Intelligent New Energy REIT experienced significant declines [2][15] Group 3 - The liquidity section of the report reveals an increase in overall trading activity for REITs, with a total trading volume of 670 million yuan, up 35.1% from the previous week [3][36] - The report details that the largest category by trading volume was park infrastructure REITs, accounting for 31.1% of the total trading volume, with significant increases in trading volumes across various REIT categories [3][36] - Specific categories such as energy infrastructure and warehouse logistics also saw notable increases in trading activity, indicating a positive trend in market engagement [3][36] Group 4 - The report provides insights into the correlation of REITs with major asset classes, indicating a strong positive correlation with bond indices, particularly the CSI All Bond index [27][28] - The internal correlation among different REIT categories, such as industrial park REITs and energy facility REITs, shows significant interdependencies, suggesting that movements in one category may influence others [29] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding these correlations for strategic investment decisions in the REIT market [27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Under the resonance of multiple negative factors such as the rise in risk preference, the sharp rise in the equity and commodity markets, and the central bank's net withdrawal in the open - market operations disturbing the capital price, the bond market fluctuated violently this week. The selling behavior of funds is particularly worthy of attention. The scale of funds' net selling on Thursday and Friday was second only to the redemption tides in late August and early October last year. The performance of bond funds was poor, with over 40% of pure interest - rate bond funds recording negative returns in the past three months. Continued attention should be paid to changes in market risk preference and fund redemption situations [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment - The bond market vitality index increased, mainly due to the rise in the turnover rate of ultra - long bonds. As of July 25, the bond market vitality index rose 6 pcts to 37% compared with July 18, and the 5D - MA rose 5 pcts to 45% [11]. - Indicators of rising bond market vitality included the trading volume of the active 10Y CDB bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y CDB bonds (the rolling two - year quantile rose from 42% to 72%), the 30Y treasury bond turnover rate (the rolling two - year quantile rose from 16% to 71%), and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds (the rolling two - year quantile rose from 99.3% to 99.7%) [13]. - Indicators of falling bond market vitality included the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared with the average of the past 4 years (the rolling two - year quantile dropped from 20% to 5%) and the implied tax rate of 1 - 10Y CDB bonds (the rolling two - year quantile dropped from 57% to 21%) [14]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In terms of overall buying and selling strength, the order of net buying strength in the cash bond market this week was large banks > insurance > wealth management > other products > money market funds > overseas institutions and others, and the order of net selling strength was funds > securities firms > joint - stock banks > city commercial banks. For ultra - long bonds, the order of net buying strength was insurance > rural commercial banks > city commercial banks > wealth management, and the order of net selling strength was funds > securities firms > large banks > joint - stock banks > other products [22]. - Different institutions had different main bond types. Large banks focused on 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds and credit bonds; rural commercial banks focused on 5 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and 1 - 3Y other bonds; insurance focused on interest - rate bonds over 10Y and 7 - 10Y credit bonds; funds focused on interest - rate bonds within 1Y; wealth management focused on certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds within 3Y; other products focused on certificates of deposit [26]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio - As of July 25, the median duration of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.21 years to 4.38 years compared with July 18. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.22 years and 0.04 years respectively, while that of credit bond funds increased by 0.19 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds changed more significantly, decreasing by 0.48 years and increasing by 0.32 years respectively [35]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio - **Primary market**: The primary subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased overall this week. The weighted average full - market multiples of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased from 3.25 times to 2.94 times and from 3.36 times to 3.16 times respectively [53]. - **Large banks**: As of July 25, the cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year reached 4032 billion yuan, higher than the same period last year [59]. - **Rural commercial banks**: This year, the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds was higher than the same period in previous years [70]. - **Insurance**: This year, the net purchase of cash bonds and its ratio to premium income were significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the sufficient supply of ultra - long - term government bonds. As of July 25, the ratio of the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds to the cumulative issuance of government bonds over 10Y was 27.34%, lower than 35.14% at the end of July last year [81]. - **Wealth management**: From June to July, the cumulative net purchase of cash bonds continued to rise, especially for bonds over 10Y. This week, the duration of net - bought cash bonds in the secondary market increased to the highest level since February 23, 2024 [90]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking - Since July, the increase in the scale of wealth management products was weaker than seasonal. The scale increased by 27.96 billion yuan, far lower than the same period from 2021 - 2024. The wealth management product break - even rate decreased [94]. - Since July, the scale of bond funds increased by 13.41 billion yuan, with a significant slowdown in growth rate, while the scale of equity funds increased by 20.99 billion yuan. This week, the net value of various types of bond funds fell sharply, and over 40% of pure interest - rate bond funds recorded negative returns in the past three months [101].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has seen a significant increase of 7.1% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.9 percentage points, driven by infrastructure projects and the rise in specialized engineering and civil explosives sectors [1][29] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the industry, suggesting investment opportunities in construction blue chips and steel structure sectors, particularly in the central and western regions of China [1][2][36] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Four angles to capture investment opportunities in the construction sector: 1. **Price Elasticity**: Companies involved in resource development or trade, such as Northern International and China Railway, are recommended due to expected price increases in resources [2][15] 2. **Supply-Demand Optimization**: Focus on construction blue chips as the anti-involution movement may alleviate price pressures in the industry, with recommendations for quality local state-owned enterprises like Sichuan Road and Bridge [2][17] 3. **Transformation and Upgrading**: Companies with stronger technological attributes are expected to benefit from structural high prosperity in technology-driven infrastructure demands, with recommendations for Tunnel Corporation and China State Construction International [2][21] 4. **Downstream Profit Improvement**: If anti-involution policies improve profitability in steel and cement industries, there will be a rebound in capital expenditure needs, recommending companies like China National Materials and China Steel International [2][23] Market Performance - The report notes a slight decline in the operating rates of petroleum asphalt and cement shipment rates, with the cement shipment rate at 43.07%, down by 2.8 percentage points [3][26] - Central state-owned enterprises showed a positive trend in order data for Q2, with notable growth in orders for companies like China Railway and China Nuclear Engineering [3][26] Key Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth local state-owned enterprises in regions with strong infrastructure investment, such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Anhui, as well as major central state-owned enterprises like China Communications Construction and China Railway [36][37] - Emphasis is placed on the potential of nuclear power and emerging business directions within the construction sector, highlighting the high prosperity of nuclear power investments [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the main brand of the company experienced low single-digit growth in retail sales year-on-year, while the Saucony brand saw over 20% growth in retail sales [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the main brand's retail sales grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, and Saucony's retail sales exceeded 30% growth [1]. - The company is actively expanding its presence in the basketball sector while solidifying its leading position in the running category through sponsorships and successful athlete endorsements [2]. - The Saucony brand is focusing on professional runners and has launched new products, including the TRIUMPH 23 running shoes, which emphasize both performance and lifestyle [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 14.7 billion RMB, 15.8 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.36 billion RMB, 1.52 billion RMB, and 1.69 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.49 RMB, 0.55 RMB, and 0.61 RMB [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 11x, 10x, and 9x for the years 2025 to 2027 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and domestic demand restoration still requires policy support. Attention should be paid to the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - The property market shows a weak performance, and the supply - demand sides are both weak. In the second half of the year, more active property - easing policies may be needed to release the demand for improved housing [2][3]. - The commodity futures market is generally rising, with black - series, new - energy materials, and building materials leading the gains. The "anti - involution" policy strengthens the supply - side contraction expectation and drives the industry valuation repair [7][106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand: New home sales increase month - on - month, and automobile consumption shows marginal improvement - New home sales: The transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing increased by 22% month - on - month and decreased by 7% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. Second and third - tier cities had larger increases in new home sales, while first - tier cities decreased by 7% [13]. - Second - hand home sales: Among the monitored key cities, Beijing and Shanghai's second - hand home transaction areas increased by 4% and 3% month - on - month respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou decreased by 13% and 15% [33]. - Automobile consumption: The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 22.4% month - on - month and 14.3% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. The national movie box office increased by 39.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: As of the week ending July 25, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate remained at 80.4%, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.0 pct to 43.9%, the PTA operating rate remained at 80.8%, the polyester filament operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 0.8 pct to 92.1%, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct to 28.8% [49]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment: Apparent consumption of rebar improves, and rebar prices continue to rise - Rebar: As of the week ending July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 5.0% month - on - month to 217 tons, and the rebar price increased by 4.3% month - on - month to 3433.2 yuan/ton [64]. - Cement: As of the week ending July 25, the cement price decreased by 1.9% month - on - month to 105.9 points. As of the week ending July 18, the cement shipping rate increased by 0.8 pct to 40.9%, and the cement inventory ratio increased by 0.8 pct to 62.3% [64]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: As of the week ending July 25, port container throughput increased by 2.6% month - on - month, higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. The BDI index continued to rise, increasing by 10.9% month - on - month [73]. - Import: The CICFI composite index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [6]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and black - series products lead the gains - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month as of the week ending July 25. Pork, egg, and vegetable prices increased, while fruit prices decreased [7]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 4.2% month - on - month. Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.3% month - on - month, and LME copper spot price increased by 2.4% month - on - month [7]. - Commodity futures: Polysilicon futures settlement price increased by 17.5%, industrial silicon futures settlement price increased by 9.0%, coking coal futures settlement price increased by 28.9%, coke futures settlement price increased by 13.8%, glass futures settlement price increased by 21.1%, and PVC futures settlement price increased by 6.5% [106]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeds 94% - Next week (July 28 - August 1): The planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 5532 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4345 billion yuan. Among them, treasury bonds are planned to issue 1800 billion yuan with a net financing of 1600 billion yuan, local bonds 3372 billion yuan with a net financing of 2431 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds 360 billion yuan with a net financing of 315 billion yuan [110]. - Issuance progress: As of July 25, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds was 94.1%, that of new general bonds was 64.7%, and that of new special bonds was 59.0%. The cumulative net issuance progress of treasury bonds was 57.7%, and that of policy - bank bonds was 68.6% [8][114][116]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - On July 21, the "Housing Rental Regulations" was announced to regulate the housing rental market [118]. - On July 23, a subsidy project for elderly care services for moderately and severely disabled elderly was launched [119]. - On July 23, the tax policy for goods in Hainan Free Trade Port at the time of full - island customs closure was released [120]. - On July 25, it was reported that the national general public budget expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 141271 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [121]. - On July 22, Chengdu planned to cancel housing sales restrictions in batches and increase housing provident fund loan support [123]. - On July 24, Zhongshan introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the real - estate market [124].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company has signed a supplementary agreement with Grinmei to supply 500,000 tons of low-cost core precipitant products by the end of 2028, which will significantly reduce Grinmei's smelting costs by 10%-15% and enhance profitability [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the steel industry and the expansion of its efficient precipitant production capacity, leading to an acceleration in performance release [3] - The company has established a production capacity of 110,000 tons per year for efficient precipitant products, with plans for further expansion [2] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2023 is 5,472.92 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.88% [4] - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 298.96 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 121.36% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.30 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.59 [4] Business Outlook - The company is positioned to meet the demand for precipitant products in the Indonesian nickel resource project, which will enhance its market presence and operational performance [1][2] - The recovery in the domestic steel industry is expected to improve the profitability of the company's refractory materials business [3] - The overseas production capacity in the U.S. and Serbia is anticipated to stabilize the company's performance in the refractory materials sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6][17] Core Views - The implementation of vehicle transport regulation is expected to lead to increased freight rates and improved profitability for the company, similar to the effects observed during previous regulatory periods [2][4] - The company's self-owned transport vehicles exhibit significant profit elasticity, which could benefit from a rebound in freight rates and increased mileage due to regulatory compliance [3][4] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to declining vehicle freight rates, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery driven by regulatory actions [4][5] Summary by Sections Regulatory Impact - The Ministry of Transport, Public Security, and Industry and Information Technology has initiated a special governance action for vehicle transport, effective from July 2025, aimed at strict management of new vehicle market access and enhanced enforcement against overloaded vehicles [1] - Historical data shows that similar regulatory actions in 2016-2018 led to a significant increase in freight rates and profitability for the company, with average freight rates rising by 23% and net profit reaching 400 million yuan by 2018 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3,783.01 million yuan in 2023 to 4,888.02 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.99% [5][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of 73.63 million yuan for 2025, down from previous estimates, but anticipated to rebound to 416.81 million yuan by 2027 [5][12] Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 65.24 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA of 11.29, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to future earnings growth [5][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the liquidity demand remained high, and the central bank's net - withdrawal in the first half - week and the rise of the stock market and some commodities led to the unexpected convergence of the capital market. The capital market shifted from loose to neutral - tight, with overnight capital interest rates rising and large - bank net lending first increasing and then decreasing. Next week, as the month - end approaches, the central bank's attitude of timely support remains, and the pressure on the capital market may be marginally relieved, but the central bank's response to large - scale open - market withdrawals and the recovery of large - bank lending scale will be important determinants of the month - end capital market and interest rates [2][11][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Analysis of the Pressure at the Month - End after the "Roller - Coaster" of Funds - This week, due to large liquidity demand and the central bank's withdrawal of tax - period liquidity, the capital market shifted from loose to neutral - tight. Overnight capital interest rates reached a relatively high level since June, large - bank net lending first increased and then decreased, and the primary and secondary prices of certificates of deposit (CDs) rose slightly in the second half of the week. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 changed by - 2.56, - 2.77, 0.23, and 1.55BP respectively compared with the previous week. The week - average of the capital stratification between R001 and DR001 decreased by 0.21BP, and that between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.32BP [11] - The reasons for the unexpected convergence of the capital market are the central bank's net - withdrawal in the first half - week and the diversion of bond - market funds by the rising stock market and some commodities. Next week, the central bank's support attitude remains, and the pressure on the capital market may be marginally relieved as the issuance scale of government bonds and the maturity scale of CDs decline, and fiscal expenditures may accelerate at the end of the month. However, the central bank's response to open - market withdrawals and the recovery of large - bank lending will be crucial [24][25][26] 3.2. Open Market: The Maturity Scale Will Decrease Slightly Next Week - From July 21 to July 25, the open - market net injection was 1.095 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase was issued 165.63 billion yuan and matured 172.68 billion yuan, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) was issued 40 billion yuan and redeemed 20 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - deposit was issued 10 billion yuan and matured 12 billion yuan. From July 28 to August 1, the open - market maturity will be 165.63 billion yuan, all of which are 7 - day reverse repurchases [3][30] 3.3. Government Bonds: The Issuance Scale Will Decrease Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 27.1 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 51.72 billion yuan, including 18 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 33.72 billion yuan of local bonds. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 30.76 billion yuan. This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 1.07 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3.8421 trillion yuan this year and an issuance progress of 62%. The issuance of new local bonds was 22.87 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3.1534 trillion yuan and an issuance progress of 61% [41][42] 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be about 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52pct. The predicted excess reserve at the end of June is about 403.68 billion yuan. From July 21 to July 25, the open - market net injection was 1.095 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 27.1 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was 5.49 billion yuan, and the reserve payment was - 14 billion yuan [46][47] 3.5. Money Market: The Net Lending of Large Banks First Increased and then Decreased - Most capital interest rates increased. As of July 25, compared with July 18, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 increased by 6.08, 14.56, 6.41, and 18.65BP respectively. The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 2.72 and 0.08BP respectively to 1.47% and 1.51%. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 18.16 and - 7.62BP respectively to 1.56% and 1.63%. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.21 and 4.82BP respectively to 1.53% and 1.57%. The weekly average of six - month national - share transfer and six - month city - commercial transfer interest rates changed by - 0.1pct to 0.74% and 0.85% respectively [49][55][58] - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.6986 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.4 billion yuan compared with July 14 - 18. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1359 trillion yuan, an increase of 450 million yuan compared with July 14 - 18 [60] - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.18 trillion yuan, a change of 175.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The average net lending of large state - owned banks was 3.87 trillion yuan, a change of 253.5 billion yuan compared with last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a change of - 0.1% compared with last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.69 trillion yuan, a change of - 77.9 billion yuan compared with last week [65] 3.6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: The Maturity Scale Will Decrease Next Week - From July 21 to July 25, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 51.57 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 55.43 billion yuan, a decrease in both issuance scale and net financing compared with last week. By issuer, city - commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. By term, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale and net financing [72] - Next week (July 28 - August 3), the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs will be 40.29 billion yuan, a decrease compared with this week. The maturity scale is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month CDs [82] - The weighted issuance term of inter - bank CDs this week was 7.25 months, a compression compared with last week's 8.3 months. The issuance success rate of share - holding banks was the highest, and the 3 - month issuance success rate was the highest among different terms [76][78] 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Increased - Driven by the marginal convergence of the capital market this week, the secondary yields of CDs increased significantly. The yields of AAA - rated CDs of all terms increased, and the yields of 1 - year CDs of all ratings increased [96] - Compared with the previous week, the spreads between 1 - year CDs and R007, R001, 7 - day OMO, and 1 - year treasury bonds changed to - 1.87BP, 12.28BP, 27.5BP, and 29.15BP respectively [100]