固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 央行呵护，资金再闯关 1、资金面聚焦：央行呵护，资金再闯关 本周资金面先紧后松，资金利率一度下破 1.4%的政策利率水平，国有大行 净融出规模行至年内高位，存单一二级收益率持稳。资金分层现象有所凸 显，但仍处偏低水平。 展望下周，资金面将迎来多重扰动，也一定程度增加对于银行负债端压力 的担忧，但整体或相对可控。一方面，本月第二次买断式逆回购将于月中 进行操作，月内净投放 2000 亿元，为二季度首次实现净投放，且这或与月 初的 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作、下旬开展的 MLF 操作将形成协同，分别 于月初、月中及月末时点进行呵护。后续也不排除这两类工具继续选择在 上述三个时点进行操作的可能，实现月内各阶段流动性的精准呵护，也有 利于引导市场形成较为稳定的预期。另一方面，5 月社融表现分化，外围 关税博弈也仍在持续，基本面磨底修复阶段仍需货币政策的保驾护航，央 行的呵护态度或仍在。 下周资金面关注因素：（1）逆回购到期 8582 亿元，规模小幅下行，MLF 回笼 1820 亿元；（2）政府债净缴款 1036 亿元，规模小幅回落，其中，国 债缴款规模较大；（3） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bank and other financial high - quality bottom - position convertible bonds are continuously shrinking, and medium - large bottom - position convertible bonds may benefit from the capital spill - over trend. It is recommended to select targets based on credit quality, remaining term, and clause games [1][11]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level in the long term, with a good risk - return ratio. Domestic economic fundamentals and capital flow may gradually resonate. For convertible bonds, be vigilant about valuation callback risks, focus on the game space of downward revisions and strong redemption risks, and pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [14]. - Industries worthy of attention include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. After the Continuous Shrinking of Bottom - Position Convertible Bonds - This week, Nanyin Convertible Bond announced a strong redemption as expected. Since this year, 4 bank convertible bonds have announced early redemptions, and 1 has matured. As of June 13, the scale of bank convertible bonds has decreased to 1519.61 billion yuan, a decrease of about 39 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. There is still 5.7 billion yuan of Hangyin and Nanyin Convertible Bonds that will be converted or redeemed [1][9]. - In the future, 50 billion yuan of Pufa Convertible Bond will mature and delist. It is advisable to select convertible bonds based on credit quality, remaining term, and clause games, and pay attention to convertible bonds with a relatively large remaining scale and a remaining term of less than 2 years among those maturing in the non - downward - revision period in June [11]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - The market fluctuated this week, with an overall weekly decline. The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound drove a slight improvement in the May PMI. Domestic economic fundamentals and capital flow may gradually resonate [14]. - For convertible bonds, the issuance pressure is expected to be low. Be vigilant about valuation callback risks, focus on the game space of downward revisions and strong redemption risks, and pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [14]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Declined, and Cyclical Sectors such as Metals Strengthened - This week, major equity market indices declined. 13 Shenwan industry indices rose, and 18 declined. Industries such as non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while food and beverage, household appliances, and building materials led the losses [18][20]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the Premium Rate per 100 - Yuan Par Value Slightly Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The average daily trading volume increased to 69.298 billion yuan, with a total weekly trading volume of 346.489 billion yuan [23]. - In terms of industries, 11 industries rose, and 18 declined. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - bank finance, and public utilities led the gains, while communication, media, and machinery and equipment led the losses [25]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five gainers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Jinji Convertible Bond, Haibo Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, and Zhite Convertible Bond; the top five losers were Zhengyu Convertible Bond, Huati Convertible Bond, Haomei Convertible Bond, Tianyang Convertible Bond, and Aofei Convertible Bond [26][28]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market decreased, and the premium rate increased. The premium rate per 100 - yuan par value decreased slightly and is above the 50% quantile since 2017 [35]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds and balanced convertible bonds declined significantly. The valuation of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan increased, while most other par - value convertible bonds' valuations decreased. The valuation of convertible bonds rated A+ and below decreased, while other ratings increased. The valuation of small - cap convertible bonds decreased, while other scale - graded convertible bonds increased [44]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [44]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds rated AA+ and above and A and below rose, while others declined. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have performed steadily, and low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [54]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while other scale convertible bonds declined. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 13.98% return, medium - small - cap convertible bonds 14.10%, medium - cap convertible bonds 9.60%, and large - cap convertible bonds 10.31% [54]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds. Two convertible bonds (Dianhua Convertible Bond and Anke Convertible Bond) announced plans to be issued, and one (Hengshuai Convertible Bond) has been issued but not yet listed. Six convertible bonds passed the first - level approval [4][59]. - Since the beginning of 2023 to June 13, 2025, there have been 90 convertible bonds in the pipeline, with a total scale of 145.842 billion yuan [60]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of June 14, 2025, 20 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, 1 proposed a downward revision, and 1 announced the result of a downward revision [64]. - Seven convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 announced no early redemptions, and 2 announced early redemptions [67][68]. - As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 33 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [70].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing low price fluctuations, with the average price of live pigs at 14.39 CNY/kg as of June 14, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The profitability for self-breeding is approximately 72 CNY per head, down by 53 CNY from the previous week. The price of piglets has reached a three-month low [1][15] - The pet industry is witnessing significant growth driven by consumption upgrades, with domestic brands rising strongly. For instance, Tmall's pet sales exceeded last year's first-day sales within 100 minutes, and 653 brands saw sales double year-on-year. The pet food export volume from January to April 2025 reached 110,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][4][17][18] - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to uncertainties in breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, with a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates from January to May 2025. The yellow chicken market is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand as supply tightens [5][20][22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of live pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profitability at 72 CNY per head, indicating a significant drop in profitability [1][15] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors and rising temperatures [19] - The sector is expected to face losses due to strong supply and weak demand, with potential for capacity reduction [19] Pet Sector - The pet industry is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with significant sales growth on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, indicating a shift towards high-value products [3][17] - Pet food exports are growing, with a total export value of 3.26 billion CNY from January to April 2025, reflecting a robust market [4][18] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [4][18] Poultry Sector - The white chicken breeding sector is facing a 40.66% decline in breeding stock updates due to import uncertainties, while the yellow chicken market is seeing a tightening supply [20][21] - The average price for yellow chickens has fluctuated, with a notable decrease in prices in certain regions [22] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that can capitalize on breeding opportunities and market recovery, such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Co. [21][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving self-sufficiency in food security, with an emphasis on improving crop yields through advanced breeding strategies [24] - Key recommendations include seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, as well as agricultural resource companies [24] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and sustained performance [25] - The animal health sector is shifting towards new products and markets, with a focus on pet health products and significant growth potential [26]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - In May, the total sales of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles reached 1.486 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. Exports were 1.09 million units, up 20.6%, while domestic sales were 396,000 units, down 8.2% [2][8] - For motorcycles above 250cc, sales in May were 101,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. Exports were 50,000 units, up 52.1%, and domestic sales were 51,000 units, up 15.4% [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - Total sales of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles in May were 1.486 million units, with exports at 1.09 million units and domestic sales at 396,000 units [2][8] - Year-to-date total sales reached 6.8407 million units, a 17% increase year-on-year [3] Company-Specific Performance Chuanfeng Power - In May, Chuanfeng's fuel motorcycle sales were 28,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. Exports were 12,000 units, up 2.5%, and domestic sales were 17,000 units, up 22.7% [2][13] - For motorcycles above 250cc, sales were 22,000 units, a 48.1% increase year-on-year [2][13] - Electric motorcycle sales surged to 35,000 units, a staggering increase of 2092.0% [2][16] Longxin General - Longxin's total sales of two-wheeled motorcycles in May were 123,000 units, down 10.8%. Exports were 113,000 units, down 12.6%, while domestic sales were 10,000 units, up 15.1% [2][19] - Sales of motorcycles above 250cc were 13,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [2][19] Qianjiang Motorcycle - Qianjiang's total sales of two-wheeled motorcycles in May were 37,000 units, down 13.3%. Exports were 14,000 units, down 37.6%, while domestic sales were 22,000 units, up 15.7% [2][25] - For motorcycles above 250cc, sales were 14,000 units, a 6.4% increase year-on-year [2][25]

- The report constructs a model to estimate the complete stock holdings of public funds based on the top 10 heavy holdings disclosed in quarterly reports, the top 10 shareholders of listed companies, and the industry allocation information of public funds[7][8][9] - The model assumes that the non-heavy stock holdings of the fund remain unchanged in terms of stock types across two periods, with only the holding weights changing proportionally. Based on the non-heavy stock holdings at the end of the previous period, the weights are scaled proportionally to simulate the non-heavy stock holdings for the current period[9] - The model uses weighted least squares to estimate the allocation of public funds in large-cap and small-cap combinations at each point in time, based on the daily returns of the fund and the daily returns of the large-cap and small-cap indices[2][11] - The model evaluates the average style changes of public funds from three dimensions: large-cap and small-cap allocation, market value exposure, and industry allocation[2][11] - The median stock position of ordinary stock funds as of June 13, 2025, is 88.84%, up 1.57% from the previous week's estimate. The median stock position of partial equity hybrid funds is 84.98%, up 0.95% from the previous week's estimate[3][13] - The estimated positions of ordinary stock funds and partial equity hybrid funds in the large-cap combination increased by 0.96% and decreased by 1.02%, respectively, while the estimated positions in the small-cap combination increased by 0.61% and 1.97%, respectively[3][13] - The current estimated positions of ordinary stock funds and partial equity hybrid funds are at the 60.53% and 48.47% percentiles, respectively, in the position estimate series since 2016[3][13] - As of June 13, 2025, public funds have high allocation weights in industries such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, food and beverages, and machinery[3][20] - During the week of June 9-13, 2025, partial equity investment funds reduced their positions in industries such as electronics, computers, pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, while increasing their positions in industries such as machinery, banking, non-bank finance, basic chemicals, and consumer services[3][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 55.24 CNY based on the current price of 36.93 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the therapeutic drug sector for over 20 years, focusing on infectious diseases, respiratory and critical care, autoimmune diseases, and neurological disorders. It has a rich pipeline of research and sales [1][14]. - The company’s key product, STSP-0601, has received breakthrough therapy designation and has submitted a conditional marketing application, indicating strong potential in the hemophilia treatment market [2][32]. - The company is experiencing a transitional phase with a projected revenue decline in 2024, but it is expected to enter an accelerated growth phase from 2025 onwards [4][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2002 in Beijing, the company specializes in innovative drugs across various therapeutic areas and has developed national class 1 new drugs [1][14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with key executives possessing extensive research backgrounds [19][21]. Research and Development Pipeline - The company has multiple products in clinical trials, including STSP-0601 for hemophilia, STSA-1002 for ARDS, and BDB-001 for ANCA-associated vasculitis, all showing promising results [3][4][30]. - STSP-0601 has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials, with a high potential market due to the large number of hemophilia patients in China [2][47]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 3.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability projected by 2027 [4][5]. - The 2024 revenue is expected to be 3.25 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.81% decrease from the previous year, but the company is on track to reduce losses [25][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is well-positioned in the market with its innovative drug pipeline and has received recognition for its breakthrough therapies, enhancing its competitive edge [2][4]. - The focus on developing high-quality, accessible treatments for chronic conditions like hemophilia is expected to drive future growth [32][34].

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 14.65%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 14.40% [11] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on stocks that exceed earnings expectations and show a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [13] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.69%, with an annualized excess return of 27.07% over the benchmark [16] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 18.68%, outperforming the benchmark index by 18.42% [16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, focusing on stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios and high return on equity (ROE) [18] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 14.31% relative to the CSI 300 index [22] - The strategy's performance this week yielded an excess return of 0.95% [22]

Group 1 - The report highlights the successful completion of the expansion and issuance of the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT, marking the first expansion of a rental housing REIT in China [1][7]. - As of June 13, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 174.4 billion, with 66 REITs issued [8]. - The overall REITs market showed positive performance, with the CSI REITs total return index increasing by 0.69% during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025 [2][16]. Group 2 - The liquidity of the REITs market improved, with a total trading volume of 548 million yuan, reflecting a 10.1% increase week-on-week [3][36]. - The trading volume for different categories of REITs showed significant variations, with the largest category being transportation infrastructure, accounting for 30.0% of the total trading volume [3][36]. - The report indicates that the trading volume for affordable rental housing REITs increased by 63.4% week-on-week, highlighting strong investor interest in this segment [3][36]. Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of various asset classes, showing that the REITs total index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points during the same week [2][16]. - The performance of individual REITs was notable, with Huaxia Fund's Huayuan Youchao REIT leading with a gain of 4.32% [2][16]. - The report also includes historical performance data, indicating that the REITs total index has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.43% [26].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold, which has led to an increase in gold prices [3] - Basic metals such as copper and aluminum are experiencing divergent price trends, with copper prices remaining stable while aluminum prices have seen a slight increase [2][23] - The tungsten market is experiencing price increases, although market activity remains subdued [4][56] - The rare earth sector is showing signs of improvement due to a combination of fundamental and sentiment factors [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with current prices at 78,350 CNY/ton. Domestic supply is high, and export plans are being arranged by some smelters, leading to potential inventory pressures [2][14] - Aluminum prices have increased slightly, with current prices at 20,465 CNY/ton, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory [2][23] - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the average price at 773.50 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous week [3][27] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate at 252,500 CNY/ton [4][56] - The lithium market remains weak, with prices stabilizing around 60,000-65,000 CNY/ton [41][42] - Cobalt prices are stable, with the CIF price at 11.3-11.6 USD/pound, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [44][45] Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices have decreased by 1.4% to 442,500 CNY/ton, while heavy rare earths have also seen slight declines [5] - The magnetic materials sector is expected to improve as licensing for manufacturers progresses, indicating potential long-term opportunities [5] Market Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Rare Earth Holdings [2][5][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the global panoramic imaging sector, aiming to become a world-class brand through continuous technological innovation and a strong product lineup [1][12]. - The company has achieved rapid revenue and profit growth, with a focus on maintaining a high R&D expense ratio of 12%-14% from 2022 to 2024, indicating a commitment to technological investment [2]. - The global market for smart imaging devices is experiencing significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% from 2017 to 2023, driven by the demand for VR/AR and sports photography [3][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, specializes in the research and production of smart imaging devices, including panoramic and action cameras, and holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market as of 2023 [1][12]. - The product categories include consumer-grade devices, professional-grade devices, and accessories, with consumer-grade devices accounting for approximately 85% of revenue over the past three years [1][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid growth in revenue and profit from 2021 to 2024, with a projected revenue of 3,636.39 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 12,193.40 million yuan by 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,309.26 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 31.62% [8]. Industry Analysis - The smart imaging device industry is projected to grow significantly, with the global market size increasing from 164.3 billion yuan in 2017 to 364.7 billion yuan in 2023 [51]. - The company benefits from favorable industry policies that support the development of virtual reality technologies, providing long-term advantages [51][56]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its global influence and brand recognition by focusing on technological innovation, product planning, and global branding strategies [50]. - Future plans include expanding production capacity and establishing R&D centers to strengthen its competitive edge in the smart imaging market [2][46].