Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - New and second-hand housing transactions continue to face downward pressure, highlighting the necessity for policy intervention [4][5] - The Beijing government has emphasized optimizing housing supply and enhancing consumption through a new action plan, focusing on land supply and housing fund policies [3][8] - The report anticipates that July will be a critical period for policy announcements, with the real estate sector entering a phase of policy-driven market dynamics [10] Summary by Sections Policy Tracking - The Beijing government issued a plan to boost consumption, aligning with previous housing policies, focusing on optimizing land supply and enhancing the housing supply system [3][8] - The plan includes measures to support housing fund withdrawals for down payments and promote smart community developments [3][8] Weekly Data Tracking - New housing transactions in 30 major cities reached 1.37 million square meters in the week ending July 11, down 20% year-on-year and 48% month-on-month [4][9] - Second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities were 1.43 million square meters, reflecting a 12.8% year-on-year decline [4][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, such as Poly Developments [6][21] - It also recommends monitoring top intermediary firms benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions, like I Love My Home [6][21]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent price increase of organic silicon intermediates is attributed to sufficient pre-sale orders and rising metal silicon prices [9][11] - The supply side is expected to see limited new capacity for organic silicon in China, while demand from electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics is anticipated to grow [30] - The closure of overseas production capacity, such as Dow's UK facility, is beneficial for China's organic silicon exports, improving the supply-demand balance [29][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the basic chemical industry rose by 1.53%, ranking 19th among all Shenwan first-level industries [12] - The top five stocks by weekly increase in the basic chemical industry included: Shangwei New Materials, Hongbo New Materials, Chenguang New Materials, *ST Yatai, and Dongyue Silicon Materials [12] Sub-industry - Organic Silicon - As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon intermediate DMC was 11,000 RMB/ton, up 1.9% from the previous week [11][14] - The industry is experiencing a decrease in inventory and a strong willingness to maintain prices, although downstream demand has not significantly increased [14] - The recent rise in metal silicon prices is providing cost support for organic silicon prices [14] Investment Recommendations - The organic silicon industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential recovery in industry prosperity [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the number of clinical trial applications and market approvals for vaccines continues to grow rapidly, with 45 clinical trial applications and 12 market approvals accepted, representing a 58.3% year-on-year increase [3] - The vaccine industry is experiencing a phase of supply-demand imbalance, impacting overall performance, but there is a long-term focus on innovation and international expansion [8][24] - The industry is driven by three main factors: policy, demand, and technology, with a strong emphasis on innovative vaccines and technical upgrades [8][24] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector saw a 3.61% increase last week, ranking second among 13 sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical industry [4] - The cumulative decline in the vaccine sector since the beginning of 2025 has narrowed to 6.18% [4] Market Review - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 75.17X, with a year-on-year maximum of 76.07X and a minimum of 19.57X, indicating a significant valuation range [6] - The PB (lf) for the vaccine sector is 1.83X, with a maximum of 2.58X and a minimum of 1.62X over the past year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong research and innovation capabilities, particularly those with differentiated products, recommending companies like CanSino and Kanghua Biological [8][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of technical innovation and product differentiation as key competitive advantages in the vaccine industry [26]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner in 2025, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and overlapping trends from the new "Nine National Policies" and a quasi-"4 trillion" investment strategy [9][31]. - The report highlights that the main focus areas for 2025 will be technology, green initiatives, consumption, and infrastructure, as mentioned in the government work report [9][31]. - The A-share market is expected to show slight upward fluctuations in July, with resilience in exports during the 90-day tariff buffer period between China and the U.S. [9][31]. Market Performance - During the period from July 7 to July 11, 2025, all six A-share indices monitored showed an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.36% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.09% [2][11]. - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the 3500-point mark but showed signs of weakening momentum, particularly in the banking and insurance sectors, which were the main drivers of the index's rise [3][14][16]. Sector Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the real estate and steel sectors had the highest weekly gains of 6.12% and 4.41%, respectively, while coal and banking sectors experienced declines of -1.08% and -1.00% [4][20]. - In the second-level industries, multi-finance and small metals led with weekly gains of 9.30% and 9.07%, while the ground equipment II and gaming II sectors had the highest cumulative gains for 2025 at 56.04% and 35.86% [5][24]. - The report also highlights that the fruit and vegetable processing and exhibition services sectors had the highest weekly gains among the 259 third-level industries, with increases of 13.94% and 13.71%, respectively [6][25]. Macro Data - The report mentions that the June CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, marking a return to positive growth after four consecutive months of decline, while the PPI continued to decline, reaching -3.60% [7][27][28]. - The macro short-cycle composite index has been declining for five consecutive months, indicating a potential peak in the short cycle since February 2025 [7][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The bank wealth management market has seen a decline in scale at the beginning of the year due to bond market volatility and a shift of investment funds to the recovering equity market. However, a recovery in the second quarter is expected as the bond market improves and deposit rates decline, driving savings into wealth management products [6][12] - Cash management product yields have been trending downward, with the average annualized yield for June at 1.49%, down 4 basis points from the previous month. This decline is attributed to a generally loose monetary policy and a decrease in the yields of various asset types [7][15] - The overall net value of fixed-income wealth management products remains stable, with a low break-even rate of approximately 1.1% in June, indicating a strong performance in the market [10][27] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Overview - The wealth management scale decreased from 29 trillion yuan in 2021 to 26.8 trillion yuan in 2023, with a projected recovery to 29.95 trillion yuan in 2024. Public fund scales are expected to grow from 26.03 trillion yuan in 2022 to 32.83 trillion yuan in 2024 [12] - The decline in wealth management scale in the first quarter was due to bond market fluctuations and a shift of funds to equities, but a recovery is anticipated in the second quarter [12] Wealth Management Product Yields - Cash management product yields have decreased, with the average annualized yield for June at 1.49%, down 34 basis points from December of the previous year. The average yield for pure fixed-income products was 2.49%, down 0.09 percentage points from the previous month [15][17] - Fixed-income plus wealth management product yields have increased, with short-term yields rising by 0.43 percentage points to 3.07% and medium-term yields increasing by 92 percentage points to 3.73% [9][19] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate for fixed-income plus wealth management products remains low, with only 401 products having a net value below 1 yuan, indicating a strong market stability. The break-even rate for pure fixed-income products is nearly zero [10][27]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, China's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The food item CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while non-food items increased by 0.1%, both showing a 0.1 percentage point rise from prior values[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.7%, also an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in June decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - The PPI's month-on-month change was a decrease of 0.4%, consistent with the prior value[14] - Factors contributing to PPI pressure include falling raw material prices, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and tariffs affecting global trade[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a need for stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting in Q3 may present an opportunity for new policies, though the impact is expected to be limited[4] - CPI is projected to maintain positive growth in Q3, while the likelihood of PPI turning positive within the year remains low[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected consumer recovery, potential economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for domestic consumption recovery, supported by recent promotional activities and government policies [6][23] - The retail sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points [4][9] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 37.92X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.81X, indicating a slight decrease in valuation metrics [5][15][17] Industry Performance - The retail sector's performance over the past twelve months shows a relative return of -3% for one month and +1% for three months, with an absolute return of -1% for one month and +4% for three months [3][4] - Specific segments within the retail sector showed varied performance, with internet e-commerce up by 1.83% and professional chains up by 0.9% [4][10] Industry Dynamics - The "618" promotional event demonstrated significant consumer engagement, with platforms like JD.com and Tmall leading in sales growth across various categories [6][18][22] - Cross-border e-commerce also saw substantial growth, with orders on Alibaba's international platform increasing by 42% year-on-year [19] - The report notes that the government's subsidy policies have effectively stimulated consumption, particularly in electronics and home appliances [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the ongoing potential for consumer spending, particularly in the digital and home appliance sectors, driven by trade-in policies [23] - It also recommends monitoring the performance of domestic beauty brands, which have gained consumer recognition and market share [23][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][44] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a slight decline of 0.53% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.07 percentage points [8][11] - The current industry valuation (TTM P/E) has decreased by 0.4x to 67.68x, which is at 83.7% of its historical percentile [11][8] - The upstream prices of rare earth materials remain firm, while the downstream demand is limited, leading to a mixed outlook for the industry [8][44] Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 42% compared to the CSI 300 index [4] - Absolute returns for the industry were 58% over the same period [4] Price Trends - Domestic rare earth ore prices remained stable, while imported ore prices initially stabilized and then increased [8][14] - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have shown slight increases, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices rising by 0.22% and praseodymium-neodymium metal prices increasing by 0.37% [15][17] - Dysprosium and terbium oxides have maintained strong prices due to support from market sentiment, with dysprosium oxide prices rising by 1.86% [22][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains stable with upstream separation enterprises operating steadily, while some recycling enterprises have reduced output [43][8] - Demand from major magnetic material manufacturers is stable, but the overall market sentiment is cautious, with trade dynamics remaining relatively stable [43][8] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - The industry is still in a profit recovery phase, but the sustainability and height of price increases for rare earths and magnetic materials depend on the resolution of supply-demand imbalances [43][44] - The report suggests focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and easing export controls [44][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1][8] Core Views - The report highlights that high temperatures have led to record electricity loads, improving the power supply-demand balance [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: hydropower stocks benefiting from the unified electricity market, thermal power stocks with improving performance due to cost reductions, and green energy projects transitioning smoothly [7][38] - Key companies recommended include Huaneng Hydropower, Huaneng International, Jingneng Power, and Funiu Co., Ltd. [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The public utility sector (Shenwan) rose by 2.26% this week, outperforming the market by 0.72 percentage points [3] - Sub-sectors such as heating services, thermal power, and comprehensive electricity services saw significant increases [3] Key Data Tracking - Domestic natural gas prices slightly decreased, with the LNG ex-factory price at 4412 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [5] - The average inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir increased by 18.81% week-on-week [5] Industry Dynamics - National electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, with significant increases in several provinces due to high temperatures [6] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the national unified electricity market construction and the potential for asset value reassessment in the electricity sector [7][38] - It suggests that strong operational capabilities and quality resource locations are key for investment [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The June PMI for the machinery industry has rebounded to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in general equipment and engineering machinery sectors [4][6] - Despite a decline in domestic engineering machinery operations, exports are experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in May [5][6] - The overall demand for machinery equipment is expected to improve in the second half of the year due to easing US-China trade tensions and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has shown a relative return of 19.5% and an absolute return of 35.6% [3] General Equipment - The production index and new orders index have increased to 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating expansion [4] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing resilience, with a continuous recovery in PMI for May and June [4] Engineering Machinery - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in June were 77.2 hours, down 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery was 56.9%, a decline of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the engineering machinery sector, which is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and strong export growth [6] - Specific companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Hengli Hydraulic [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, with several companies rated as "Buy" [20]