公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 南极电商(002127.SZ) 证券研究报告 投资评级 上次评级 蔡昕妤 商贸零售分析师 执业编号：S1500523060001 联系电话：13921189535 邮 箱：caixinyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 南极电商(002127.SZ)2024&25Q1 点评：战略 转型带动收入增长，利润短期承压 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024&2025Q1 业绩，2024 年实现收入 33.58 亿元，同增 24.75%，归母净利润为-2.37 亿元，同比由盈转亏，扣非归母净利润为-2.86 亿元，同比由盈转亏。2025Q1 实现收入 7.29 亿元，同增 2.03%，归母净 利润为-0.14 亿元，同比由盈转亏，扣非归母净利润为-0.19 亿元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for the company's growth and profitability in the coming years [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown stable growth in its core electric two-wheeler business, with a revenue of CNY 5.072 billion in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 117 million, down 19.8% [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from new policies in 2025, including new national standards and trade-in programs, which may create a favorable supply-demand dynamic [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product lines, including electric assist bicycles and light sports products under the LYVA brand, targeting high-income consumers [4]. - The company is also developing a new ecosystem involving battery swapping and rental services, aiming to create an integrated system for rental, swapping, and sales [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 13.1%, showing resilience despite a decline in overall sales and average selling prices [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at CNY 0.03 million in 2024, with a cash and cash equivalents balance of CNY 5.55 billion at year-end [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 6.598 billion, CNY 7.682 billion, and CNY 8.763 billion, respectively, with expected net profits of CNY 171 million, CNY 201 million, and CNY 238 million [7][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from CNY 0.30 in 2024 to CNY 0.56 in 2027 [7][9]. Growth Strategy Summary - The company plans to enhance its production capacity, with an annual capacity exceeding 5 million units by the end of 2024 and an expected increase to 2 million units per year by 2026 [2]. - The company has over 1,400 distributors and more than 12,800 offline stores, indicating a strong distribution network [2]. - The strategic focus on the LYVA brand and the development of a battery swapping and rental ecosystem reflects the company's commitment to diversifying its growth avenues [4].

- The report includes the construction of dividend points for stock index futures contracts, predicting the dividend points for the next year for indices such as CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000[10][12][16][18] - The construction process involves estimating the dividend points for the contract's duration, adjusting the basis by removing the impact of dividends, and annualizing the basis[20] - The basis adjustment formula is: Expected dividend-adjusted basis = Actual basis + Expected dividends during the contract period[20] - The annualized basis formula is: Annualized basis = (Actual basis + (Expected) dividend points) / Index price × 360 / Remaining days of the contract[20] - The evaluation of the basis adjustment indicates that the basis for IC, IF, IH, and IM contracts has generally increased, with the basis for IC and IM contracts showing a narrowing discount, while IF and IH contracts show a slight increase in premium[21][27][32][38] Model Backtesting Results - IC contract: Annualized basis discount narrowed to 7.58%[21] - IF contract: Annualized basis discount narrowed to 2.07%[27] - IH contract: Annualized basis premium increased to 0.83%[32] - IM contract: Annualized basis discount narrowed to 10.35%[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction - Cinda-VIX: Reflects the expected future volatility of the underlying asset in the options market, with a term structure indicating different volatility expectations for different periods[63] - Cinda-SKEW: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme events and potential risks[72] Factor Backtesting Results - Cinda-VIX values as of April 25, 2025: SSE 50VIX 19.21, CSI 300VIX 19.66, CSI 500VIX 29.03, CSI 1000VIX 28.66[64] - Cinda-SKEW values as of April 25, 2025: SSE 50SKEW 102.81, CSI 300SKEW 104.47, CSI 500SKEW 102.76, CSI 1000SKEW 103.65[72] Evaluation of Models and Factors - The basis adjustment model effectively accounts for the impact of dividends on futures contracts, providing a more accurate basis measurement[20] - The Cinda-VIX and Cinda-SKEW indices offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential risks, with high SKEW values indicating increased concern over extreme negative events[72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's performance and strategic initiatives [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.603 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 767 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year. The decline in profit is attributed to the impact of the employee stock ownership plan and increased investment in new business strategies [1][2]. - The traditional business segments, including mattresses, bed frames, sofas, and bedding, showed stable growth, with mattress revenue reaching 2.679 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The gross margin for mattresses was 61.4%, indicating stable profitability [2]. - The company is strategically advancing into AI mattress products and expanding its overseas market presence, with a focus on establishing retail channels in North America, Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.121 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 118 million yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is primarily due to high base effects from Q1 2024 [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be 779 million yuan, with projected growth rates of 1.5%, 5.7%, and 6.0% for the following years [4][6]. Business Segments - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that mattresses generated 2.679 billion yuan, bed frames 1.665 billion yuan, sofas 432 million yuan, and bedding 304 million yuan, with varying growth rates across segments [2]. - The company has established a diversified sales network with over 5,400 offline stores and is actively expanding its online business, which generated 1.093 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 6.0% increase year-on-year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the AI smart mattress T11+ is part of the company's forward-looking strategy, aiming to enhance market positioning and improve gross margins [3]. - The company is also exploring new e-commerce platforms and has acquired key assets in Singapore and Indonesia to strengthen its overseas production capabilities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power (600795.SH) [1][6] Core Views - The report highlights that cost control exceeded expectations, and installed capacity growth supports future performance [1][4] - The company experienced a decline in revenue but managed to increase net profit due to effective cost management [3][4] - The long-term growth potential in installed capacity is significant, with robust resources in thermal, wind, and hydro power [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Guodian Power reported revenue of 39.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.15% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 182.81% [1] - Operating cash flow was 14.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.79% [1] Operational Highlights - The company's electricity generation decreased by 5.72% year-on-year to 94.935 billion kWh in Q1 2025, with thermal power generation down by 9.34% [3] - The average on-grid electricity price fell to 425.41 yuan per thousand kWh, a decrease of 6.62% year-on-year [3] - Installed capacity as of March 31, 2025, was 116.3914 million kW, with significant contributions from thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power [3] Cost Management - The report notes a 13.19% year-on-year decrease in operating costs, attributed to effective coal procurement strategies and cost control measures [3][4] - Significant reductions were observed in various expenses, including sales expenses down by 63.88% and management expenses down by 16.86% [3][4] Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see steady growth in thermal power, with new projects in high-price regions set to come online in 2025-2026 [6] - The report anticipates that hydro power projects will contribute significantly to performance growth in the next three years [6] - Guodian Power's diversified energy portfolio positions it well for future growth, supported by strong shareholder backing and asset quality [6]

上次评级 买入 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 新集能源(601918.SH) | | | 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 一季度业绩韧性突显，煤电协同盈利中枢有 望稳步抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 25 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 对等关税如何影响二季度外贸节奏 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 25 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Tab时点上， 影响 le_Summary] 5 月的中美外贸影响可能更剧烈。当前中美关税博弈"高位僵持" 之下，我们认为 5 月份关税对中美外贸影响可能更剧烈。首先，当前可观 察的高频数据显示 4 月中国 ...

麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 政策有所进有所留——逐句解读 4.25 政治 局会议通稿 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 25 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | | 一、政策有所进有所留 3 | | --- | | 二、逐句解读 5 | | 风险因素 8 | | | | 一、政策有所进有所留 第一，本次会议发生在美国关税政策不明朗之际，政策呈现出"有所进有所留"的特征。每年 4 月的中央政治局 会议，都会分析研究经济形势和经济工作，由于会议召开在经济数据一季报之后，因而成为市场观察决策层经济 态度和政策动向的重要窗口。本次会议正处于美国对华高额"对等关税"不明朗之际，市场对国内政策思路的关注 度尤 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.36 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 861 million yuan, up 15.41% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.96%, but reported a net loss of 6.8 million yuan, a significant decline of 173.69% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of its network and the support from JD Group, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth and cost optimization, enhancing overall profitability [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s operating costs were 37.29 billion yuan, an increase of 12.55% year-on-year, with a gross margin of approximately 7.62%, down 1.06 percentage points [4]. - For Q1 2025, operating costs were 9.99 billion yuan, up 14.86% year-on-year, with a gross margin of about 3.99%, down 2.43 percentage points [4]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 911 million yuan, 1.036 billion yuan, and 1.166 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 13.8%, and 12.5% respectively [8]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company’s express delivery revenue was 21.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.67% year-on-year, while other revenues increased by 34.63% to 1.71 billion yuan [3]. - In Q1 2025, express delivery revenue was 4.83 billion yuan, down 11.00% year-on-year, while other revenues rose by 23.89% to 4.71 billion yuan [3]. Cost Structure - The company’s labor costs, freight costs, and rental expenses saw increases of 3.86%, 34.13%, and a decrease of 17.01% respectively in Q1 2025 [4]. - The freight cost as a percentage of revenue increased by 8.15 percentage points, attributed to changes in business structure and increased investment in transportation resources [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to repurchase shares worth between 75 million and 150 million yuan, representing 0.46% to 0.92% of its total share capital, indicating confidence in future growth [5][6].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 沪电股份(002463) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 沪电股份年报点评：精益求精积极布 局，AI 时代再创佳绩 AI 引擎动能强劲，投资扩产夯实中长 期成长基础 2024 年半年度报告点评：深度受益 AI 服务器放量及交换网络升级，800G 交 换机已量产出货 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] AI 强劲释放动能，业绩持续高速增长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 25 日 [Table_S 事件：4ummar 月 25y]日，公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，公司实现营业收入 40.38 亿元，yoy+56.27%，qoq-6.77% ...