公司点评报告 · 银行业 业绩增速稳中有升，转债转股夯实资本 —— 杭州银行 2025 年半年报业绩点评 2025 年 8 月 28 日 核心观点 杭州银行（股票代码：600926） 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ：010-8092-7617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn | 市场数据 | 2025-08-27 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600926 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 15.86 | | 上证指数 | 3800.35 | | 总股本（万股） | 724900.25 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 724900.25 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 1149.69 | 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-08-27** 资料来源：ifind，中国银河证券研究院 -20% 0% 20% 40% 杭州银行 沪深300 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved stable performance with a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.19% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has a strong integrated supply chain advantage, which helps maintain stable production and performance amid high volatility in aluminum prices and costs. In the first half of 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 585,400 tons, remaining stable year-on-year, while sales increased by approximately 2% [4] - The company is expanding its upstream resource capabilities and electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, with a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to be completed in about 10 months, increasing its capacity from 1.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.20% [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.569 billion yuan, 5.857 billion yuan, and 6.495 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.26, and 1.40 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jin Zai Food (stock code: 003000) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure in its business phase, with expectations for the effectiveness of adjustments to be released [1] - The first half of 2025 saw a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit, attributed to challenges in quail egg sales and competitive pressures [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel adjustments, with expectations for marginal improvements in the second half of 2025 [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,411.94 million yuan in 2024 to 3,251.97 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 16.79% in 2024, slowing to 4.23% in 2025, and then rebounding to 13.94% and 13.53% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][6] - Net profit is expected to decline to 273.47 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 328.97 million yuan in 2026 and 390.84 million yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to remain stable, increasing from 30.47% in 2024 to 31.45% in 2027 [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from fish products and bean products showed growth, while quail egg sales faced a decline due to market conditions and competition [5] - The company has expanded its distribution channels, covering over 300,000 terminals and increasing the number of distributors by 10.6% [5] Market Performance - The stock closed at 12.81 yuan on August 27, 2025, with a market capitalization of 3.8 billion yuan [3] - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a focus on maintaining steady revenue growth despite current challenges [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.955 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.96%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 758 million yuan, up 35.21% year-on-year [4]. - The electronic circuit segment remains the primary revenue source, while the new energy business shows rapid growth, achieving a revenue of 4.940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.66% [4]. - The company plans to invest up to 1 billion USD to expand PCB capacity, focusing on high-end PCB products to meet increasing customer demand [4]. - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to diversify its business, including the acquisition of GMD Group and Solstice Optoelectronics, with total investments not exceeding 5.935 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 financial highlights include: - Revenue: 16.955 billion yuan, up 1.96% year-on-year - Net profit: 758 million yuan, up 35.21% year-on-year - Gross margin: 13.59%, up 0.52 percentage points year-on-year - Net margin: 4.47%, up 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company forecasts revenues of 42.118 billion yuan, 52.404 billion yuan, and 60.264 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.524 billion yuan, 3.425 billion yuan, and 4.565 billion yuan [5][6]. Future Projections - Expected revenue growth rates are 15% for 2025, 24% for 2026, and 15% for 2027 [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 1.38 yuan for 2025, 1.87 yuan for 2026, and 2.49 yuan for 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 40, 30, and 22 times [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has shown improved profitability despite a decline in revenue, with a focus on international expansion under the "Belt and Road" initiative [4]. - The company achieved a net profit of 4.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.11% [4]. - The report forecasts a gradual increase in net profit for 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of 8.75 billion yuan, 9.20 billion yuan, and 9.83 billion yuan respectively, indicating growth rates of 4.75%, 5.18%, and 6.79% [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 176.47 billion yuan - 2025E: 180.10 billion yuan - 2026E: 188.90 billion yuan - 2027E: 201.20 billion yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at -33.10%, 2.06%, 4.89%, and 6.51% respectively [6]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 8.35 billion yuan - 2025E: 8.75 billion yuan - 2026E: 9.20 billion yuan - 2027E: 9.83 billion yuan - Corresponding profit growth rates are 9.69%, 4.75%, 5.18%, and 6.79% [6]. - **Gross Margin**: - The gross margin for 2025 is projected at 12.24%, down from 14.50% in 2024 [6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to increase from 0.58 yuan in 2024 to 0.68 yuan in 2027 [6]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 11.25 in 2024 to 9.56 in 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [6]. Operational Highlights - The company reported a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by 6.36% year-on-year, while domestic revenue saw a decline of 59.88% [4]. - The company ranked 77th among the "Top 250 International Contractors" globally in 2024, marking its best performance to date [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on traditional channels while making progress in new business areas. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 20.9% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 77.5% [4]. - Weak demand and intensified competition are impacting the main business, but emerging businesses are showing positive developments. Beverage revenue fell by 22.1%, while canned food revenue decreased by 24.0% [4]. - The company is preparing for a seasonal sales boost in Q4 2025, focusing on product display and channel expansion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 1854.78 million - 2025E: 1576.56 million - 2026E: 1612.82 million - 2027E: 1695.07 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at -3.53% for 2024, -15.00% for 2025, 2.30% for 2026, and 5.10% for 2027 [2][5]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 147.38 million - 2025E: 85.40 million - 2026E: 103.36 million - 2027E: 129.23 million - Profit growth rates are expected to be -47.06% for 2024, -42.05% for 2025, 21.02% for 2026, and 25.03% for 2027 [2][5]. - **Gross Margin**: - 2024A: 34.00% - 2025E: 29.80% - 2026E: 30.80% - 2027E: 31.80% [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.34 - 2025E: 0.20 - 2026E: 0.24 - 2027E: 0.30 [2][5]. - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: - 2024A: 51.65 - 2025E: 89.13 - 2026E: 73.65 - 2027E: 58.90 [2][5].

公司点评报告 · 银行业 负债成本优化加速，规模稳健高增 —— 成都银行 2025 年半年报业绩点评 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究助理 袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn | 市场数据 | 2025-08-27 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 601838 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 18.04 | | 上证指数 | 3800.35 | | 总股本（万股）） | 423843.54 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 423105.82 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 763.28 | 核心观点 成都银行（股票代码：601838） 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ：010-8092-7617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-08-27 资料来源：ifind，中国银河证券研究院 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 成都银行 沪深300 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的 ...

Market Performance - On August 27, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index decreased by 2.60%, closing at 1550.44 points[3] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 32.872 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.59%[3] - Compared to the previous week, the average daily trading volume decreased from 41.701 billion CNY[3] Index Comparison - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800.35 points, down by 1.76%[3] - The CSI 300 index closed at 4386.13 points, down by 1.49%[3] - The STAR 50 index increased slightly by 0.13%, closing at 1272.56 points[3] Sector Performance - Only the communication sector saw an increase of 0.7%, while the largest declines were in construction materials (-3.9%), beauty care (-3.9%), textiles and apparel (-3.8%), and basic chemicals (-3.7%)[3] - Among 273 listed companies, 34 saw an increase, 1 remained flat, and 238 experienced a decline[3] Stock Highlights - The top gainers included *ST Guandao (+30.00%), *ST Yunchuang (+17.10%), and Digital Human (+12.84%)[3] - The largest declines were seen in Xinzhi Biological (-9.92%), Tianrun Technology (-8.28%), and Hengtou Kaiyuan (-7.81%)[3] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange is at a P/E ratio of 53.90 times, which is higher than the ChiNext's 41.39 times[3] - The highest sector P/E ratio is in electronics at 259.3 times, followed by computers at 155.4 times[3] Risk Factors - Risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3]

Profit Trends - From January to July 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - In July, profits decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3%[1] - The profit margin for January to July was recorded at 5.15%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.25 percentage points, showing a narrowing drop compared to the previous month's 0.26 percentage points[1] Revenue and Production - Total operating revenue for the same period was CNY 78.07 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[1] - The industrial added value in July grew by 5.7% year-on-year, despite a 1.1 percentage point decline in growth rate compared to previous months[1] - Export growth in July was 7.2%, surpassing the ten-year average of 3.6%[1] Cost and Inventory Management - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.57, an increase of CNY 0.24 year-on-year, while expenses decreased by CNY 0.08 to CNY 8.38[1] - Finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.67 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, indicating a slowdown in nominal inventory growth[1] - The raw material inventory index fell to 47.7%, and the finished goods inventory index decreased to 47.4%, indicating a tightening balance in production and sales[1] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing saw a profit increase of 18.9% in July, with aerospace and semiconductor sectors leading with growth rates of 40.9% and rapid increases, respectively[2] - Consumer manufacturing sectors, including paper and textiles, showed negative growth, with the automotive manufacturing sector also experiencing a decline after a brief recovery in June[2] - The mining sector was the most significant drag on profits, with a notable decline in profit margins[1]

Profit Trends - From January to July 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - The operating revenue for the same period was CNY 78.07 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[1] - In July, profits decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3%[1] Production and Margins - Industrial production showed resilience with a 5.7% year-on-year increase in July's industrial added value, despite a 1.1 percentage point decline from the previous month[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in July, the same as the previous month, but with a reduced month-on-month decline[1] - The profit margin for January to July was recorded at 5.15%, remaining stable compared to the previous value, with a year-on-year decline of 0.25 percentage points[1] Inventory and Costs - As of July, finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.67 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, indicating a slowdown in nominal inventory growth[1] - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.57, an increase of CNY 0.24 year-on-year, while expenses decreased by CNY 0.08 to CNY 8.38[1] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing saw a profit increase of 18.9% in July, reversing a 0.9% decline in June, with aerospace manufacturing profits soaring by 40.9%[2] - Consumer manufacturing sectors, such as paper and textiles, experienced negative growth, with the automotive manufacturing sector also seeing a profit decline in July after a recovery in June[2] Future Outlook - Future profit trends will depend on the continuation of domestic demand expansion policies and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures in manufacturing[2] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring external demand and geopolitical risks, particularly in the context of US-China trade negotiations[2]