Policy Updates - The approval of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle Land Space Planning marks a significant step in establishing a new growth engine for high-quality development in China, positioning it as the fourth major growth source after Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau[4] - The plan emphasizes enhancing economic development capabilities and facilitating industrial transfer, particularly in the context of national strategic hinterland construction[4] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, demonstrating strong economic resilience[7] - Retail sales of consumer goods are projected to increase from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a robust internal demand[7] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance reported a 3.4% increase in national fiscal expenditure, with social security, education, and technology spending growing over 5%[33] - A special long-term bond issuance of 3,000 billion yuan is expected to drive sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan through consumer goods replacement programs[32] Monetary Policy - The central bank's report indicated a 5.2% GDP growth target for 2025, with nominal GDP growth expected to reach 4.8%[38] - In October 2025, M1 growth declined to 6.2%, while M2 growth fell to 8.2%, indicating a tightening monetary environment[43] Regional Development - The Chengdu-Chongqing region is set to play a crucial role in national economic development, with a focus on infrastructure connectivity and institutional reforms to enhance economic capabilities[48] - The region's GDP is projected to significantly contribute to the overall economic landscape of Western China, with a strategic emphasis on high-quality development[50]

Group 1: 2025 A-Share Market Review - As of November 14, 2025, the overall A-Share index increased by 26.58%, with the ChiNext index and STAR 50 leading at 45.29% and 37.65% respectively [6] - Among 31 primary industries, 30 saw an increase in closing prices compared to the end of the previous year, with non-ferrous metals, communication, and electric equipment leading with gains exceeding 50% [4][19] - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 3.40% [4][19] Group 2: 2026 Investment Environment Analysis - The 2026 investment environment is characterized by a stable macroeconomic policy in China, with expected resilience in economic growth and a potential recovery in inflation from low levels [4][36] - The international landscape remains uncertain, with geopolitical risks and trade order challenges impacting global economic growth [36][40] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide a clear development blueprint, enhancing market confidence in China's long-term economic resilience [4][36] Group 3: Market Trend Predictions for 2026 - The A-Share market is anticipated to benefit from improved liquidity, with the current valuation being relatively reasonable compared to global equity markets [4][36] - Earnings growth is expected to become a key focus, driven by the deepening of China's economic transformation and the continuous development of emerging industries [4][36] - The PPI decline is expected to narrow, potentially leading to an increase in corporate profit margins [4][36] Group 4: Style Judgments for 2026 - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform well, particularly in the context of a favorable environment for risk appetite driven by the Fed's anticipated rate cuts and the upward trend in emerging industries [4][36] - Growth stocks are projected to continue outperforming value stocks in the first three quarters of 2026, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [4][36] - In the fourth quarter, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, market risk appetite may shift, potentially favoring value stocks [4][36] Group 5: Structural Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create significant policy dividends and industry opportunities, focusing on two main lines: new productivity driven by technology and the "anti-involution" policy promoting supply-demand optimization [4][36] - Key sectors to watch include artificial intelligence, new energy, and quantum technology, which are highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][36] - The consumer sector is seen as a potential area for investment, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4][36]

Core Insights - The ESG sentiment integration strategy achieved an excess return of 4.13% compared to the benchmark index, with a total return of 2% over the last month [1][9] - The ESG screening strategy underperformed with a decline of 1.64%, but still outperformed the benchmark by 2.13% [1][5] ESG Screening Strategy (CSI 300) - The strategy, based on the report published on December 8, 2023, considers incremental risk information provided by ESG factors and incorporates Markowitz portfolio theory [1][5] - Performance metrics include a total return of -0.2% over the last month, a maximum gain of 2%, and a maximum loss of -2%, with a Sharpe ratio of -0.44 [1][8] ESG Sentiment Integration Strategy (CSI 300) - This strategy, detailed in the report from February 28, 2025, also utilizes ESG sentiment data and Markowitz portfolio theory [1][9] - The strategy's performance shows a total return of 2% over the last month, with a maximum gain of 2% and a maximum loss of -1%, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 3.44 [1][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

Group 1 - The report highlights that active equity funds are expected to experience a value reassessment due to favorable market conditions and policy support, despite previous underperformance [4][6][10] - The active equity funds have shown significant excess returns in a structural bull market, particularly those focused on advanced manufacturing themes [4][5][6] - The report suggests a "core + satellite" investment strategy to capitalize on the current market environment, emphasizing the importance of thematic investments in state-owned enterprises, technology, and consumption sectors [4][5][6] Group 2 - The ETF market has seen a substantial breakthrough in both quantity and scale, with the total ETF size surpassing 1 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [4][5][10] - The report notes that the growth of passive products is driven by policy support, technological advancements, and increased demand, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and TMT sectors [4][5][10] - The report anticipates a continued trend of strong performance in popular sectors, with a focus on technology and financial real estate, as well as the potential for expansion in niche ETFs [4][5][10] Group 3 - The report outlines a multi-dimensional ETF quantitative allocation strategy that leverages macro timing, momentum, and advanced modeling techniques to capture diverse returns [4][5][10] - It emphasizes the importance of asset allocation to achieve stable risk-adjusted returns, particularly in a "slow bull" market [4][5][10] - The report suggests that the focus should be on sectors with strong momentum and lower crowding, especially in technology, to capture excess returns [4][5][10]

固收研究报告 关注机构季节性配置会否开启 —— 固收周报（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日） 2025 证 11 证 22 证 ⚫ 本周债市回顾： 利率震荡回 升，收益率曲线走陡 本周（ 11/17 -11/21 ）债市收益率整体上行，主要受股债跷跷板、地缘影响与地产贴息 预期等影响 , 截至 11/21 ，30Y、10Y 、1Y 国债收益率分别变化 +1.85BP 、+0.57BP 、 -0.56BP 收于 2.16% 、1.82% 、1.40% ，30Y-10Y 、10Y -1Y 期限利差分别较上周变 化+0.69BP 、+1.22BP 收于 34.1BP 、41.6BP 。证证 10Y 证证证证证证证证证证证证 1证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2证证证证证证证证证证证证 证 ⚫ 下周 债市展望： 临近月末关注资金面跨月情况 基本面来看， 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证 后续关注 四方面变化： 1 ）经济数据显示供需收缩，后续 P ...

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth projected at 4.8%[22] - The retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to grow by 4.7%, supported by policies encouraging durable goods consumption[22] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to increase by 2.4%, with manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate[22] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, while PPI is projected to decline by 1.1%[22] - The combination of internal demand stimulation and anti-involution policies is expected to drive a mild recovery in prices[22] Policy Environment - Fiscal policy will maintain continuity and stability, with a deficit rate of 4% and special bonds totaling CNY 1.3 trillion planned[22] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with interest rates projected to decrease by 10-20 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[22] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively for 2026, with expectations of excess returns due to a gradual bottoming of housing prices and steady currency appreciation[24] - The internal conditions are improving, with a focus on counter-cyclical policies and a stable liquidity environment[24] Global Context - The U.S. is expected to experience a shift in focus towards domestic economic growth, potentially benefiting China's export environment[24] - Global trade demand is projected to remain stable, with China's manufacturing advantages continuing to manifest[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the telecommunications sector, highlighting opportunities in communication operators, artificial intelligence, satellite internet, and quantum technology [2][3]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a downturn, with a weekly index drop of 4.77%. However, sub-sectors such as communication network technology services and industry applications have shown better performance [7][6]. - Significant advancements have been made in cutting-edge technologies, including quantum computing and 6G communication, which are expected to drive future growth [5][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 6G technology, which is projected to be a key growth driver for the telecommunications industry [22][29]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications sector index fell by 4.77% over the past week, with specific sub-sectors performing relatively well [7][6]. - Notable performance metrics include a 31.30% increase in certain stocks, while others saw declines of up to 14.29% [11][15]. Industry Development and Key Events - The "Tianyan-287" superconducting quantum computer has been successfully built, marking a significant milestone in quantum computing [16]. - Major tech companies are competing in the space computing arena, with initiatives from Nvidia, SpaceX, and Google indicating a shift towards space-based AI infrastructure [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the telecommunications sector, including 300308, 300502, 300383, 601869, and 688027, among others [2][5]. - The emphasis is placed on sectors such as AI, satellite internet, and quantum technology as promising areas for investment [2][5].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with a growth rate of only 0.2% from January to October 2025[1] - Tax revenue is expected to achieve the annual budget growth target, with a cumulative increase of 0.8% during the same period[4] - The structure of tax revenue improved, with stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) growing significantly by 29.5%[10] Group 2: Government Fund Income - Government fund income from land sales decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 2.8% from January to October 2025[12] - The land income showed a notable drop in October, with a decrease of 7.4% compared to the previous month[12] Group 3: Special Bonds and Expenditure - The issuance of special bonds slowed down, leading to a significant drop in secondary account expenditures, which fell by 38.2% in October 2025[16] - Infrastructure spending growth rate decreased, with a decline of 9.8% from January to October 2025[16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Views - The transportation sector has shown a cumulative increase of 1.83% from November 10 to November 15, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.08% [14][15]. - The recovery rates for domestic and international passenger traffic in major airlines and airports have significantly improved compared to 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in the aviation sector [24][32]. - The shipping and logistics sectors are experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping indices showing a decline year-on-year, while oil and product tanker indices have increased significantly [36][47]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The transportation industry ranked 13th among 31 sectors with a cumulative increase of 1.83% during the week [14]. - Sub-sectors such as ports (+7.44%) and airports (+5.28%) performed particularly well, while cross-border logistics (-1.37%) and road freight (-0.68%) faced declines [15][23]. Aviation and Airports - Major airlines in China have seen recovery rates for domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) in September 2025 reach as high as 176.49% compared to the same month in 2019 [24]. - Key airports like Baiyun, Shanghai, and Capital have also shown strong recovery in passenger throughput, with rates of 125.22% and 115.87% for international traffic [32]. Shipping and Ports - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased by 35.55% year-on-year, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has shown a 23.97% decline [36]. - The CCFI for the East America route reported a decrease of 18.31% year-on-year, while the Mediterranean route saw a decline of 28.56% [36]. Road and Rail - Rail passenger turnover increased by 0.4% year-on-year, while freight volume rose by 4.24% [61]. - Road passenger traffic decreased by 3.82%, but freight volume increased by 5.20% [67]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a 7.20% increase year-on-year [10]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards smaller packages driven by e-commerce, with a notable increase in business volume [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and logistics companies like Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) for potential investment opportunities [9][10].