丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——5 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月，社会消费品零售总额同比增速回升至 6.4%，工业增加值、固定资产投资总额同比增速较 上月回落，从生产法 GDP 估算来看，二季度 GDP 同比增速或维持在 5%以上。但在强劲的量 增之外， PPI 和房价等指标有转弱迹象，价格端的压力正在逐渐显现。在需求端，出口和生产 强度偏弱、消费高增长内含透支风险、基建同比增速持续走弱，均体现出增长转弱初现端倪。 总的来看，当前经济缺乏自主转向上行周期的动力，最终增长仍需政策承托，政策和增长的互 动节奏将决定市场的风险偏好。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] ——5 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Title] 如果 Q2 GDP 增长超过 5% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如果 Q2 GDP2] 增长超过 5% 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the healthcare sector [11] Core Insights - Menin is identified as a crucial epigenetic regulatory factor that drives the abnormal activation of the HOX/MEIS1 axis in acute leukemia subtypes, making it an important target for precision therapy in AML [2][7] - As of June 2025, there are 9 Menin inhibitors in clinical development or already approved globally, with Revumenib showing a complete response rate (CRc) of 81% when combined with Azacitidine and Venetoclax, and a median overall survival (mOS) of 15.5 months [2][8] - Ziftomenib has demonstrated a CRc rate of 94% in newly diagnosed NPM1m patients when used in combination with the "7+3" regimen [9] Summary by Sections Menin Inhibitors Overview - Menin, encoded by the MEN1 gene, plays a key role in gene transcription regulation and maintaining genomic stability, particularly in AML where it drives leukemia stemness and disease persistence [7][20] - Menin inhibitors are particularly effective for AML subtypes that depend on KMT2A rearrangements and NPM1 mutations, which are associated with poor prognosis [27][29] Clinical Development of Menin Inhibitors - Revumenib, developed by Syndax Pharmaceuticals, is the first Menin inhibitor approved by the FDA, showing promising efficacy in clinical trials with a CRc rate of 43.9% and an overall response rate (ORR) of 63.2% [8][33] - Ziftomenib, developed by Kura Oncology, has received FDA fast track designation and has shown high efficacy in initial clinical trials, with CR rates of 88% for NPM1m patients [9][42] - BN104, developed by BioNova, has shown a CR/CRh rate of 60.9% in KMT2A-r patients and is positioned as a potential best-in-class Menin inhibitor [45] Market and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive landscape with multiple companies, including domestic firms, actively developing Menin inhibitors, indicating a robust pipeline and potential for market growth [31][45] - The acquisition of BN104 by Sihuan Pharmaceutical reflects strategic moves to strengthen global positioning in the Menin inhibitor market [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the superconducting materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The superconducting materials industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, driven by the acceleration of nuclear fusion projects, which significantly increases the demand for superconducting materials [7][85]. - Superconductors are critical for generating strong magnetic fields necessary for maintaining and controlling high-temperature plasma in nuclear fusion devices, thus enhancing energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption [44][59]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Superconducting Materials - Diverse Types and Wide Applications - Superconducting materials are categorized into low-temperature superconductors (LTS) and high-temperature superconductors (HTS) based on their critical temperature [16]. - LTS materials include NbTi and Nb3Sn, while HTS materials include YBCO and BSCCO, which have practical applications in various fields [22][24]. - The report highlights the unique properties of superconductors, such as zero electrical resistance and complete diamagnetism, which are essential for their applications in advanced technologies [11][12]. Section 2: Superconductors as Key Technologies in Accelerating Nuclear Fusion - Superconducting magnets are essential components of Tokamak devices, used to create the strong magnetic fields required for plasma confinement [38][44]. - The ITER project exemplifies the application of LTS materials in its magnet systems, which account for approximately 28% of the total cost of the device [44]. - The report discusses the potential of HTS materials to improve efficiency and reduce operational costs in next-generation fusion devices like SPARC [59][62]. Section 3: Tight Supply-Demand Dynamics in the Industry Chain - The supply of superconducting materials, particularly in the form of wires and tapes, is currently tight due to the increasing demand from nuclear fusion projects [85]. - Key companies in the superconducting materials sector include Shanghai Superconductor Technology Co., Ltd., which specializes in the production of high-temperature superconducting tapes, and other firms like YD and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, which are involved in various aspects of superconducting technology [85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [13]. Core Insights - Suntory is the global leader in Western spirits, ranking just behind Diageo and Pernod Ricard, with a product portfolio that includes Japanese whiskies such as Yamazaki and Hakushu, as well as bourbon, vodka, and tequila acquired through the purchase of Beam [3][7]. - The growth of Suntory's whisky can be traced through several key phases, from its establishment in 1899 to its current status as a global spirits giant, highlighting its strategic adaptations to market demands and competitive pressures [8][58]. - The whisky market in Japan has experienced two significant growth phases, driven by Western lifestyle demands in the mid-20th century and innovative consumption methods post-2008 [9][62]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Suntory is recognized as a leading player in the global spirits market, with a comprehensive product matrix primarily focused on whisky, including both domestically produced Japanese whisky and bourbon acquired from Beam [23][25]. Historical Development - The company's history can be segmented into distinct phases: 1. **1899-1929**: Establishment and initial exploration, including the launch of Japan's first whisky [31]. 2. **1930-1945**: Successful localization with the introduction of the Kakubin whisky, benefiting from wartime resource allocations [38]. 3. **1946-1983**: Rapid expansion during Japan's post-war economic boom, with whisky consumption growing significantly [39]. 4. **1983-2014**: Industry contraction and strategic pivots towards premiumization and international acquisitions [49]. 5. **2014-Present**: Continued growth as a global spirits leader, focusing on high-end product offerings and innovative marketing strategies [58]. Market Dynamics - The whisky market in Japan has been shaped by protective policies that limited foreign competition, allowing Suntory to establish a strong domestic presence [10]. - Suntory's success against both traditional and local brands is attributed to its flexible business strategies and early market entry advantages [10][11]. Global Expansion - Suntory's international success is linked to its marketing strategies that resonate with local cultures and its high-quality products, which have garnered numerous prestigious awards [11][58].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [11][13][90]. Core Views - Fuling Pickles is a leader in China's pickled vegetable industry, focusing on the production and sales of pickled mustard tuber, radish, and pickles. The company is transitioning from a pickled vegetable leader to a platform-based condiment enterprise through both organic growth and acquisitions [8][22][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Fuling Pickles is primarily engaged in the production and sales of pickled vegetables, with a significant market share in the pickled mustard tuber segment, reaching approximately 36% in 2019 [10][69]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the local state-owned assets supervision and administration commission holding 35.26% as of Q1 2025 [37][39]. Market Trends - The pickled vegetable market in China is experiencing growth driven by packaging trends and increased consumer demand. The market size for packaged pickled vegetables is expected to reach around 18.2 billion yuan by 2024, with a packaging rate of approximately 22% in 2022 [9][47]. - The report identifies three main growth drivers: stable demand for traditional products, upgrades in C-end products driven by younger consumers, and opportunities for quality companies in the B-end market during the restaurant recovery phase [9][65]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.387 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.75% from 2018 to 2024. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 799 million yuan, with a CAGR of 3.20% during the same period [25][29]. - The company's gross margin, sales margin, and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 50.99%, 37.41%, and 33.49%, respectively, indicating a strong profitability position compared to industry peers [29][30]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively exploring new channels and product innovations, including the introduction of new products into membership-based supermarkets and the expansion into the restaurant channel [11][68]. - A planned acquisition of Weizimei aims to enhance the company's capabilities in the B-end market, which is expected to create synergies and strengthen the restaurant channel [11][90]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 846 million yuan, 956 million yuan, and 1.013 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [11][90].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations across different sectors [48]. Core Insights - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 37,316 billion yuan, growing by 7.0% [4][7]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the restaurant sector, while the hotel industry continues to face challenges. The automotive sector is experiencing growth due to new car launches, and there is a positive outlook for the home appliance and consumer goods sectors [7][16][20][37]. Retail Sector Summary - Retail sales in May showed a month-on-month acceleration, with online sales gaining a larger share. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4%, with a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [13]. - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [13]. - Essential goods maintained good growth, with retail sales of staple food and daily necessities increasing by 14.6% and 8% respectively [14]. Food and Beverage Sector Summary - The restaurant sector saw a robust growth of 5.9% in May, marking the highest growth rate of the year. The hotel sector, however, continues to face pressure due to weak business travel demand [16]. - The report indicates that the liquor retail sales increased by 11.2% in May, with expectations for continued growth during peak seasons [32]. Automotive Sector Summary - In May, the automotive retail sales reached 4,010 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The report emphasizes the strong performance of new energy vehicles, which saw a sales increase of 33% year-on-year [20][21]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector is likely to benefit from a price war, which may stimulate sales growth in the short term [21]. Home Appliance Sector Summary - The home appliance sector experienced a significant increase in retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 53% in May. The report attributes this growth to government subsidies and the early start of the "618" shopping festival [37][42]. - The report highlights strong performance in various categories, including air conditioners and refrigerators, with online sales showing substantial growth [38]. Textile and Apparel Sector Summary - Retail sales in the textile and apparel sector increased by 4% in May, driven by holiday promotions and the early start of sales events [26]. - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and the potential for growth in the mid-to-high-end segments of the market [26]. Consumer Goods Sector Summary - The report indicates a positive outlook for consumer goods, particularly in personal care and pet care segments, with retail sales of daily necessities growing by 8% in May [29][30]. - The report suggests that companies with strong brand recognition and consumer insights are well-positioned to capture market share [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [11] Core Insights - The company is experiencing a turnaround after 12 quarters of operational pressure, with a confirmed inflection point. It is expected to achieve positive growth in revenue and net profit in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, primarily driven by the core business of electronic cigarettes [3][17] - The company has set ambitious targets in its incentive plan, requiring a revenue growth rate of no less than 25% for 2025, with a target growth rate of 50% [9][21] - Future revenue growth is anticipated to come mainly from electronic cigarettes, followed by health environment and automotive electronics businesses, with improvements in the home engraving machine segment [9][17] Summary by Sections UDM Model and Competitive Advantage - The company's core business is based on the UDM model, which differs from traditional ODM by deeply integrating into customer front-end R&D and providing highly customized manufacturing and support services [6][30] - The UDM model allows the company to establish long-term, in-depth strategic partnerships with clients, enhancing its competitive edge [26][30] Historical Review and International Expansion - The company has transitioned from relying on "hit products" to a more diversified and balanced development phase, with a focus on international expansion and improved supply chain capabilities [7][49] - From 2014 to 2021, the company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% in revenue and 37% in net profit [7][49] Growth Potential and Business Segments - The innovative consumer electronics segment is expected to see revenue growth primarily from increased supply share in electronic cigarettes, alongside stable growth in home engraving machines and e-bike components [8][56] - The automotive electronics segment is projected to grow steadily, benefiting from the industry's overall growth [8][56] Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown a recovery in net profit margins, with estimates for Q1 2025 indicating a significant year-on-year increase [9][17] - The incentive plan outlines specific revenue targets for the next few years, indicating strong confidence in future growth [21][25] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The global market for heat-not-burn (HNB) products is expected to grow, with the company positioned to benefit from its partnership with PMI, a leading player in the HNB market [60][61] - The competitive landscape shows PMI holding a dominant market share, which provides a favorable environment for the company's growth in electronic cigarettes [60][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [11]. Core Insights - The dividend financing ratio in the environmental industry is not attractive compared to other sectors, but it is expected to improve in the future due to declining capital expenditures [2][6]. - Water and waste incineration companies are projected to have revenue compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 6.0% and 1.2%, respectively, from 2020 to 2024, with net profit CAGRs of 6.8% and 9.5% [8][32]. Summary by Sections Dividend Financing Ratio - The environmental industry has a low dividend financing ratio of 46%, significantly lower than sectors like household appliances (2942%) and oil & gas (1037%) [6][21]. - The low ratio is attributed to the heavy asset business model of the environmental sector, which relies on substantial investments for reasonable returns [6][21]. Capital Expenditure Trends - The capital expenditure to depreciation ratio for water and waste incineration has decreased from highs of 7-8 during the expansion period (2015-2020) to approximately 1.73 and 1.77 by 2024, indicating a shift towards stable operations [7][25]. - Future capital expenditure needs are expected to be limited due to high existing coverage rates for water supply and waste treatment [24]. Stability of Utility-like Dividend Stocks - The long-term performance of water and waste incineration companies is stable due to factors such as project stability, stable pricing systems, and consistent cash flow [8][31]. - The revenue and net profit growth rates for water and waste incineration companies from 2020 to 2024 reflect this stability, with water operations expected to generate 723.6 billion and waste incineration 529.9 billion in revenue by 2024 [32]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on waste incineration companies that can transition to B-end business models for valuation recovery opportunities [9][33]. - Key industry leaders to watch include Huanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, and others [9][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The Longjiang Bank Index increased by 0.7% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.0% and the ChiNext Index by 0.5%. The market's focus on bank stocks has accelerated, particularly on high-quality city commercial banks [2][20] - The fiscal injection into major state-owned banks has been realized, with expectations for further injections into other banks. The average dividend yield for A-shares of the five major state-owned banks is approaching 4%, while H-shares maintain a valuation advantage [10][42] - The market is paying close attention to convertible bond banks, with potential valuation recovery and trading opportunities identified [8][28] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index has shown a cumulative increase of 0.7% this week, with significant individual performances from Minsheng Bank and Nanjing Bank, the latter having met the conditions for convertible bond redemption [6][20] Fiscal Injection Impact - As of June 13, 2025, the fiscal injection for Bank of China and Bank of Communications has been completed, with expectations for similar actions for China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank. The average dividend yield for H-shares of the five major state-owned banks is 5.51%, showing a significant discount compared to A-shares [7][10][42] Convertible Bonds - The market has focused on banks with convertible bonds, particularly those like Hangzhou Bank, which are expected to see valuation recovery as they meet redemption conditions. Nanjing Bank has also exceeded the strong redemption price for 15 trading days [8][28] Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May, the social financing growth rate remained stable at 8.7%, with new RMB loans decreasing to 7.1%. The total new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.1 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds [9][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - The communication sector experienced a decline of 0.55% in the 24th week of 2025, ranking 18th among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has increased by 1.32%, also ranking 18th [2][5]. - Oracle's cloud revenue for FY25Q4 reached $6.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The IaaS revenue surpassed $10 billion for the first time, growing by 52% [6]. - The launch of the Doubao model 1.6 enhances the capabilities and cost-effectiveness of AI agents, facilitating their large-scale application in complex business scenarios [7]. - The current valuation of the communication sector is at historical lows, presenting a high cost-performance ratio for investors [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 24th week of 2025, the communication sector fell by 0.55%, with notable stock performances including Tianfu Communication (+13.8%) and Zhongji Xuchuang (+12.6%). The worst performers included Erli San (-10.1%) and Aofei Data (-8.9%) [5]. Oracle's Cloud Business - Oracle's FY25Q4 revenue was $15.9 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, with cloud revenue at $6.7 billion, up 27%. IaaS revenue grew to $3 billion, a 52% increase, while SaaS revenue reached $3.7 billion, an 11% increase [6]. AI and Doubao Model - The Doubao model 1.6, launched by ByteDance, supports 256K context and features multi-modal understanding, significantly reducing application costs. The average daily token usage exceeded 16.4 trillion, a 137-fold increase since its initial release [7]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom in the operator category. For optical modules, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are highlighted, while for domestic computing, Fenghuo Communication and Huafeng Technology are recommended [8].