Domestic Insights - In the first week of June, upstream production activity showed an overall decline, with significant weakening in the automotive supply chain and real estate sales and investment data[2] - The growth rate of consumption in categories like automotive and home appliances has slowed, likely due to the exhaustion of fiscal subsidy funds in some regions, which is expected to impact May's retail sales growth[2] - Despite resilient export data, May's export growth rate is expected to decline further, and overall economic data may also show a downward trend[2] - The economic growth rate from January to April significantly exceeded the 5% target, thus the current downward trend in economic data is unlikely to impact the annual growth target significantly, with low probability for new policies to be implemented in June and July[2] Overseas Insights - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above the market expectation of 130,000, but the previous months' data was revised down by 95,000 jobs, maintaining the unemployment rate at a low of 4.2%[17] - The U.S. government has requested countries to submit their best trade negotiation proposals by June 4, with only Vietnam complying, while Japan, India, Europe, and Canada remain firm in their positions[3] - The Trump administration's tax cut policy faces obstacles in the Senate, with significant discussions expected in July[3]

Group 1: Recent Developments - The call between Chinese and American leaders on June 5 emphasized the importance of US-China relations and successful trade talks in Geneva, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions[7] - The ongoing political struggle within the Trump administration is highlighted by the public dispute between Trump and Musk, reflecting deeper ideological divides[10] - New rounds of trade negotiations between the US and India, as well as Japan, are underway, focusing on tariff and non-tariff issues[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming US-China talks in London on June 9 will involve key officials and may address non-tariff issues, indicating a shift in focus[13] - The US is expected to continue its judicial review of tariff policies, with significant implications for trade negotiations with Japan and India[15] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are likely to distract US diplomatic efforts and complicate trade discussions[17] Group 3: Long-term Risks - The report warns of potential shifts in US policy due to internal political dynamics and unexpected changes in international relations, which could impact market stability[3] - The rebalancing of major power relationships is anticipated, with a focus on strategic supply chains and key industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals[19] - The report suggests that if Trump fails to achieve satisfactory trade outcomes, more aggressive geopolitical stances may emerge, increasing market volatility[19]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 08 日 白银技术突破，继续推荐黄金稀土板块 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 美国就业数据超预期，提示美国经济尚未出现衰退，美股美债美元走强。美联 储降息 9 月降息概率下降。黄金短期压力大，但是银价技术突破和铂价大涨， 也印证了市场对于黄金未来价格依然看涨。继续强烈推荐黄金，反制品种稀土 磁材、钨板块。此外，关注自主可控相关以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控 核聚变等相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4079.0 | 4.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3789.0 | 4.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.2 4.1 20.9 相对表现 3.5 6.6 13.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Jun/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 (%) 金属及材料 沪深300 3、《铍行业深度报告：可控核聚变 关键金属》2025-05-21 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" investment rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The demand for AI inference has significantly increased, with Broadcom reporting AI revenue exceeding expectations, highlighting ongoing investment in the AI sector [6][9]. - Circle, the first publicly traded stablecoin company, saw its stock price surge nearly 250% shortly after its IPO, reflecting strong market interest and potential for rapid growth in the stablecoin sector [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI infrastructure investment and the anticipated growth of stablecoins as regulatory frameworks develop, positioning them as a bridge between traditional finance and Web3 [6][14]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas AI Computing Power - Broadcom's Q2 2025 revenue reached $15.004 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, with AI revenue surpassing $4.4 billion, growing 46% year-over-year [9][10]. - The company anticipates continued growth in AI semiconductor sales, projecting revenue to accelerate to $5.1 billion in Q3 2025 [11]. - The market for AI XPU and networks is expected to reach a serviceable available market (SAM) of $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027, with Broadcom aiming for a leading market share [11]. Section 2: Circle's Market Performance - Circle's stock price increased by approximately 168.48% on its first trading day, closing at $83.23, significantly above its IPO price of $31 [14]. - As of May 23, 2025, the circulating supply of USDC exceeded $61 billion, making it the second-largest stablecoin globally [14][15]. Section 3: Market Performance Review - The computer sector rose by 2.80% in the first week of June 2025, with notable gains from companies such as Huijin Co., Qingyun Technology, and Zhongdian Xilong [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the bond market situation last week through multiple indicators, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, presenting the changes and trends of each indicator. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 115.8, down 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 49.0%, down 6.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration Tracking - Last Friday, the fund duration was 2.17 years, up 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.85 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.79 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio Tracking - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 11.3 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large banks was 4.1 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 0.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 28.5%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous value; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.53%, down 0.12 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 9.8 billion yuan, the same as the previous value; in terms of risk preference, the stock market risk premium was 2.13%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 70.7, down 0.3 from the previous value [2]. - The 6M bill transfer discount rate minus the 6M certificate of deposit fell 0.2bp to - 59.5bp, indicating a decline in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the rural commercial bank bond allocation index was 45.0%, up 124.1 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 47.6%, down 30.2 percentage points from the previous value; the money market fund bond allocation index was - 54.9%, down 47.5 percentage points from the previous value. The insurance second - tier perpetual bond allocation index was - 4.7%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 6. Primary Subscription Tracking - Last week, the full - field multiple of Treasury bonds was 3.5 times, the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 1.6 times to 22.3 times, and the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.1 times to 3.2 times [3]. 7. Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between the 10 - year China Development Bank bond and the Treasury bond widened 1.3bp to 2.3bp, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 1.9bp to 12.6bp, the spread between the old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed 0.4bp to 2.8bp, and the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the Treasury bond narrowed 1.3bp to 11.0bp [3].

- The report focuses on the performance of quantitative funds in the A-share market during the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, highlighting that quantitative funds outperformed other fund categories during this period [1][2][8] - Among the major indices, the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and CSI 300 recorded weekly returns of 2.10%, 1.60%, and 0.88%, respectively, indicating a positive market trend [3][8] - Quantitative fund categories showed varied performance: active quantitative funds gained 1.60%, market-neutral funds rose by 0.17%, and index-enhanced funds linked to the CSI 1000 and other indices achieved excess returns of 0.22% and 0.21%, respectively, while CSI 500 index-enhanced funds recorded negative excess returns [4][11][14] - The performance of index-enhanced funds was analyzed based on excess returns and maximum drawdowns relative to their benchmark indices. For example, CSI 300 index-enhanced funds achieved a weekly excess return of 0.06% with a maximum drawdown of -0.03%, while CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds achieved a weekly excess return of 0.22% with a maximum drawdown of -0.04% [16][18][20] - Active quantitative funds demonstrated a weekly return of 1.60% with a maximum drawdown of -0.21%, while market-neutral funds achieved a weekly return of 0.17% with a maximum drawdown of -0.11% [24][25] - The report also highlights the top-performing funds within each quantitative category, such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds, as well as active and market-neutral funds. For instance, the Bosera CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF achieved a weekly excess return of 0.80%, while the Bosera CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF achieved a weekly excess return of 0.79% [37][39][41][43][45]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to maximize the exposure of a target factor in the portfolio while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures relative to the benchmark index[59][60][61] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Objective Function: Maximize the portfolio's exposure to the target factor $Max \ w^{\prime} X_{target}$ 2. Constraints: - Industry neutrality: $(w-w_{b})^{\prime} X_{ind}=0$ - Style neutrality (size, valuation, growth): $(w-w_{b})^{\prime} X_{Beta}=0$ - Stock weight deviation from benchmark: $|w-w_{b}|\leq1\%$ - No short selling: $w\geq0$ - Full investment: $w^{\prime} 1=1$ - Stocks must belong to the benchmark: $w^{\prime} B=1$ 3. Factor neutralization: Before constructing the portfolio, factors are neutralized to remove correlations with industry and style factors, and all factor directions are adjusted to be positive[59][60][61] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances factor exposure maximization with risk control through constraints, ensuring robustness in various market conditions[59][60][61] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio** - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.35%, monthly excess return 0.33%, annual excess return 0.40%[56] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return -0.52%, monthly excess return 1.34%, annual excess return -0.05%[56] - **CSI 800 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.29%, monthly excess return 1.59%, annual excess return 0.74%[56] - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.25%, monthly excess return 2.83%, annual excess return 15.68%[57] - **CSI 300 ESG Enhanced Portfolio**: Weekly excess return 0.14%, monthly excess return 0.62%, annual excess return 5.94%[57] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the market's returns, capturing risk preferences in the market[15][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the stock's daily returns over the past 252 trading days - Perform an exponentially weighted regression of the stock's returns against the market index (CSI All Share Index) with a half-life of 63 days - Use the regression coefficient as the Beta value[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The Beta factor effectively captures market risk preferences, as evidenced by its strong performance in high-risk environments[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Size Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the size effect, where smaller-cap stocks tend to outperform larger-cap stocks[15][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute the natural logarithm of the total market capitalization of each stock[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor consistently demonstrates the small-cap effect, particularly in high-volatility markets[15][16] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong past performance, assuming trends persist in the short term[15][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate cumulative returns over the past 504 trading days, excluding the most recent 21 days - Apply an exponentially weighted average with a half-life of 126 days to the return series[15][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The momentum factor is effective in trending markets but may underperform during reversals[15][16] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: Weekly long-short return 2.61%, monthly long-short return -1.82%[18] - **Size Factor**: Weekly long-short return -2.11%, monthly long-short return -8.87%[18] - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly long-short return 0.58%, monthly long-short return -1.85%[18] --- Stock Selection Factors and Performance - **Factor Name**: Single Quarter ROE **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability by comparing net income to shareholder equity for a single quarter[20][21] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of net income attributable to shareholders to total shareholder equity for the most recent quarter[20][21] **Factor Backtesting Results**: - CSI 300: Weekly excess return 0.72%, monthly excess return 1.90%, annual excess return 5.43%[23] - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.85%, monthly excess return 0.91%, annual excess return 5.90%[29] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 1.02%, monthly excess return 2.06%, annual excess return 3.95%[32] - CSI 1000: Weekly excess return 1.09%, monthly excess return 2.44%, annual excess return -3.47%[36] - **Factor Name**: Single Quarter EP **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures earnings yield by comparing net income to market capitalization for a single quarter[20][21] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of net income attributable to shareholders to total market capitalization for the most recent quarter[20][21] **Factor Backtesting Results**: - CSI 300: Weekly excess return 0.89%, monthly excess return 1.65%, annual excess return 0.86%[23] - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.50%, monthly excess return 1.87%, annual excess return -4.22%[29] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 1.06%, monthly excess return 2.04%, annual excess return -1.54%[32] - CSI 1000: Weekly excess return 0.38%, monthly excess return 1.69%, annual excess return -5.99%[36] - **Factor Name**: 20-Day Reversal **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures short-term mean reversion by focusing on stocks with recent underperformance[20][21] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate cumulative returns over the past 20 trading days[20][21] **Factor Backtesting Results**: - CSI 300: Weekly excess return 0.11%, monthly excess return -0.15%, annual excess return 8.90%[23] - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.80%, monthly excess return 1.57%, annual excess return 3.33%[29] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 0.39%, monthly excess return 0.59%, annual excess return 8.27%[32] - CSI 1000: Weekly excess return 0.64%, monthly excess return 1.38%, annual excess return -6.69%[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for Broadcom (AVGO.O) [6] Core Views - Broadcom achieved a record revenue of $15.004 billion in FY2025Q2, representing a 20% year-over-year increase and a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by strong AI semiconductor business and VMware's growth momentum [1][13] - The company expects FY2025Q3 revenue to be approximately $15.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 21% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 5%, anticipating AI revenue to grow by 60% year-over-year [3][22] Revenue Performance - FY2025Q2 revenue reached $15.004 billion, with a gross margin of 79.4%, exceeding previous guidance [1][18] - Semiconductor revenue was $8.4 billion, accounting for 56% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [2][18] - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.6 billion, representing 44% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 25% [2][18] AI Business Growth - AI semiconductor revenue exceeded $4.4 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 46%, continuing a strong growth trend for nine consecutive quarters [2][14] - The company is supporting three major clients and four potential clients in deploying custom AI accelerators, with expectations of significant deployments by 2027 [4][15] Guidance and Future Outlook - The guidance for FY2025Q3 includes semiconductor revenue of $9.1 billion, with AI revenue expected to be $5.1 billion, reflecting a 60% year-over-year growth [3][22] - The company anticipates continued growth in ASICs through FY2026, with the release of the Tomahawk6 switch chip providing significant bandwidth capabilities [3][4] Financial Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for FY2025Q2 was $10 billion, representing 67% of revenue, higher than the previous guidance [19] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $6.4 billion, accounting for 43% of revenue [19][21]

Report Title - ABS Investor Structure Changes - ABS Monthly Report (May 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the ABS issuance scale decreased, with the largest month - on - month decline in enterprise ABS. The trading volume and turnover rate of ABS decreased significantly, but the trading amount and turnover rate of credit ABS continued to grow. The holding proportions of major investors in different types of ABS changed, and the yields of ABS at all maturities declined while the spreads with medium - and short - term notes mostly continued to rise [2][3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Issuance 1.1 Issuance Scale - In May 2025, the ABS issuance scale decreased by 28% month - on - month to 15.1533 billion yuan. Credit ABS, enterprise ABS, and ABN issuance scales were 2.3905 billion yuan, 8.321 billion yuan, and 4.4418 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month declines of 2%, 35%, and 23% [2][9]. - Among credit ABS, the issuance scale of micro - enterprise loan ABS increased the most, and the issuance scale of non - performing loan ABS had a fast growth rate of 761%. In enterprise ABS, the issuance scales of shantytown renovation/affordable housing ABS and CMBS/CMBN increased the most, while the issuance scale of quasi - REITs decreased the most. In ABN, the issuance scale of general small - loan creditor's rights ABS increased more, and the issuance scale of preferred limited partnership shares ABS decreased the most [9] 1.2 Issuance Term and Interest Rate - In May 2025, the terms of newly issued ABS were mostly 9M - 1 year and 1 - 2 years, and the weighted coupon rate continued to decline. The weighted average coupon rate was 2.01%, a decrease of 6.68bp compared to April [11]. - For different types of ABS, the weighted terms of newly issued credit ABS, enterprise ABS, and ABN all increased compared to the previous month, and their weighted interest rates all decreased [11] 2. Secondary Trading - In May 2025, the trading volume and turnover rate of ABS decreased significantly, but the trading amount and turnover rate of credit ABS continued to grow. The monthly trading amount of ABS was 11.8623 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.09% compared to April. The monthly turnover rate of ABS was 3.6%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to April. ABN was the most actively traded ABS product type [3][17] 3. Investor Structure - In credit ABS, commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main holders, with holding proportions of 69% and 15% respectively. The holding proportions of commercial banks and non - legal person products decreased, while those of securities companies and overseas institutions increased [4][20] - In ABN, non - legal person products and commercial banks held the most, with holding proportions of 62% and 28% respectively, both decreasing compared to the previous month [4][20] - For enterprise ABS, trust institutions and bank self - operations were the main investors in Shanghai Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, with holding proportions of 31% and 26% respectively, both decreasing. In Shenzhen Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, general institutions and trust institutions were the main investors, with the holding proportion of general institutions increasing and that of trust institutions slightly decreasing [4][25] 4. Yield and Spread - In May, the yields to maturity of ABS at all maturities declined. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities decreased by 7.6bp, 6.1bp, 4.9bp, and 4.4bp respectively compared to April 30, 2025 [5][27] - The spreads between ABS yields to maturity and medium - and short - term notes mostly continued to rise. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities with the same - maturity and same - rating medium - and short - term notes changed to 5.4bp, - 10.1bp, 0.0bp, and - 1.3bp respectively [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for Broadcom (AVGO.O) [6] Core Insights - Broadcom reported record revenue of $15.004 billion for FY2025Q2, a year-over-year increase of 20% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1%, driven by strong AI semiconductor business and VMware's growth momentum [1][13] - The company expects revenue for FY2025Q3 to be approximately $15.8 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 21% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5%, with AI revenue projected to grow by 60% year-over-year [3][22] Revenue Breakdown - Semiconductor revenue reached $8.4 billion, accounting for 56% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [2][18] - AI semiconductor revenue exceeded $4.4 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 46%, while non-AI semiconductor revenue was $4 billion, down 5% year-over-year [2][16] - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.6 billion, representing 44% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 25% [2][17] Future Guidance - For FY2025Q3, semiconductor revenue is expected to be $9.1 billion, with AI semiconductor revenue projected at $5.1 billion, reflecting a 60% year-over-year increase [3][22] - The company anticipates continued growth in AI semiconductor revenue into FY2026, driven by demand for custom AI accelerators [4][15] Operational Highlights - The gross margin for FY2025Q2 was 79.4%, exceeding previous guidance, with a year-over-year increase of 3.2 percentage points [1][18] - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $10 billion for FY2025Q2, a year-over-year increase of 35% [13][19] Market Position - Broadcom's AI business is supported by three major customers and four potential customers, with expectations for significant deployments of custom AI accelerators by 2027 [4][15] - The launch of the Tomahawk6 switch chip, offering Ethernet switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, is designed to meet the demands of AI processor clusters [4][14]