Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][12] Core Views - The company reported a decline in sales performance in Q3 2024, with expectations for improvement during the peak season [3] - The company achieved revenue of 20.96 billion and net profit of 2.16 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.65% and 26.88% respectively [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.969 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 91.22% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue 21.53 billion, Net Profit 2.95 billion - 2024A: Revenue 20.96 billion, Net Profit 2.16 billion - 2025E: Revenue 23.02 billion, Net Profit 2.47 billion - 2026E: Revenue 24.86 billion, Net Profit 2.77 billion - 2027E: Revenue 26.50 billion, Net Profit 3.06 billion - The growth rates for revenue and net profit are projected to be -3% and -27% for 2024, and 10% and 14% for 2025 respectively [3][9] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue faced pressure, while other brands like Sporz and JD Outlet showed significant growth [5] - The main brand's revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 15.27 billion and 4.64 billion respectively, with declines of 7.22% and 9.52% year-on-year [6] - The overseas business performed well, achieving revenue of 355 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.75% [6] Channel Performance - Online channels continued to drive growth, with revenues of 4.42 billion and 1.01 billion for 2024 and Q1 2025, reflecting increases of 35.63% and 19.76% year-on-year [6] - The offline direct sales channel showed revenue growth of 5.44% and 13.15% for the same periods [6] Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 44.52%, with a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.45%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Selling expenses increased due to changes in business structure, with selling expense ratio rising significantly [9] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory at the end of 2024 reached 11.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.38% [9] - The inventory turnover days increased to 330 days, reflecting a rise of 47 days year-on-year [9] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.32 billion, with cash earnings of 2.68 billion [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][11] Core Views - The report highlights that despite revenue pressure in Q3, the company's profitability remains robust, and there is optimism for order improvement in Q4 [3][6] - The company has shown strong performance with an increase in average transaction value, significantly enhancing profitability [3][6] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 963.05 million [1] - Circulating shares: 651.46 million [1] - Market price: 15.21 CNY [1] - Market capitalization: 14,647.95 million CNY [1] - Circulating market capitalization: 9,908.74 million CNY [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue for 2023: 11,666 million CNY, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024: 10,494 million CNY, with a decline of 10% [4] - Projected net profit for 2023: 1,261 million CNY, with a growth rate of 19% [4] - Projected net profit for 2024: 1,371 million CNY, with a growth rate of 9% [4] Business Segment Performance - The Sofia brand is expected to generate 9.448 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with an average transaction value of 23,370 CNY, up 19% [6] - The Milan brand is projected to achieve 510 million CNY in 2024, an increase of 8.09% year-on-year, with an average transaction value of 15,153 CNY, up 8.75% [6] - The integrated channel is expected to generate 2.216 billion CNY in revenue, an increase of 16.22% year-on-year [7] Strategic Insights - The company is deepening its whole-house strategy, which is driving a significant increase in average transaction value [8] - The brand matrix optimization has clarified positioning, providing momentum for future growth [8] - The company anticipates continued revenue improvement driven by national subsidies [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company's revenue is under pressure, but significant improvements in profitability have been observed. The gross profit margin has increased, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [3][7]. - The company is expected to gradually improve its revenue due to government subsidies and a deepening strategy in the home furnishing sector, with a projected net profit for 2025-2027 of 2.74 billion, 2.91 billion, and 3.15 billion respectively [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 22,782 million, with a projected decline to 18,925 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 20,098 million in 2025 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 3,036 million in 2023 to 2,599 million in 2024, with a slight recovery to 2,740 million in 2025 [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 35.91%, improving to 36.29% in 2025, reflecting better cost control [7]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from the cabinet segment in 2024 is projected at 54.50 billion, down 22.48% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.29 percentage points [5]. - The bathroom segment is expected to show resilience, with a revenue of 10.87 billion in 2024, down only 3.60% year-on-year, and a gross margin improvement [6]. - The retail channel is showing signs of recovery, with a revenue of 25.86 billion in Q1 2025, down just 1.28% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [7]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 13.76%, with an increase to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline slightly from 17% in 2023 to 12% by 2027, reflecting the impact of lower net profits [3][8]. Cash Flow and Valuation - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5,499 million, with a significant drop to 2,055 million in 2025, indicating potential cash flow challenges [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 15 for 2025, decreasing to 13 by 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings recover [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qilu Bank [4] Core Views - Qilu Bank's performance shows a marginal increase in growth rates, with revenue growth of 4.74% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to 4.57% for the entire year of 2024. Net profit growth for Q1 2025 is 16.44%, compared to 17.77% for 2024 [6][10] - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% in Q1 2025, down 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 8 basis points year-on-year [24] - The bank is focusing on county-level finance and innovation in financial services to maintain competitive advantages in a challenging environment [6] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 revenue increased by 4.74% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 16.44% [10] - The bank's net interest margin decreased by 3 basis points to 1.48% in Q1 2025, with an annualized asset yield down by 15 basis points to 3.25% [14][16] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio and NPL generation rate are on a downward trend, with the NPL generation rate at 0.5% in Q1 2025, down 13 basis points from the previous quarter [24] - The provision coverage ratio increased to 324.09%, reflecting a strong buffer against potential loan losses [24] Loan and Deposit Growth - Q1 2025 saw a 14.3% year-on-year increase in deposits, with a stable growth trend in interest-bearing liabilities [17] - The loan growth rate for Q1 2025 was 12.6%, with corporate loans increasing by 18.1% [16] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income decreased by 3.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [20] - Fee income, however, showed a positive growth of 8.4% year-on-year [20] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits of 56 billion, 62 billion, and 67 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting slight adjustments from previous estimates [6]

执业证书编号：S0740519050002 农商行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨超伦 执业证书编号：S0740524090004 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 9,644.44 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 9,316.58 | | 市价(元) | 8.64 | | 市值(百万元) | 83,328.00 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 80,495.28 | 2024-11-03 沪农商行（601825.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 26 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 2025 Q1 revenue of 889 million yuan, representing an 18.65% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, up 26.84% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][5] - The company is accelerating its solid-state battery business, having established a research institute in collaboration with Dongchi and is actively pursuing production capacity and overseas market expansion [7][8] - The company has signed a strategic agreement with Tianlian Robotics to develop specialized bearings for robots, enhancing its position in the robotics industry [9] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3,180 million yuan in 2023 to 7,379 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% [4] - Net profit is expected to increase from 284 million yuan in 2023 to 582 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 28% in 2025 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.55 yuan in 2023 to 3.18 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability [4] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a limited dependency on the U.S. market, with only 17.3% of its revenue coming from the U.S., and has established a supply chain center in Malaysia to enhance its competitiveness [6] - The company’s solid-state battery technology is positioned as a leader in the industry due to its low cost, high safety, and long cycle life [7] - The strategic partnership with Tianlian Robotics is expected to strengthen the company's technical capabilities and open new markets in the robotics sector [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Bank [2][3] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's performance remains robust with a revenue growth of 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and a net profit growth of 8.2% year-on-year [3][11] - The bank's net interest income increased significantly by 21.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by a resilient net interest margin [12][14] - Asset quality indicators such as non-performing loan ratio and overdue rates have shown improvement, indicating a positive trend in credit quality [19] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Jiangsu Bank's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 6.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while net profit rose by 8.2% [11][7] - The bank's net interest margin improved to 1.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13 basis points [12][9] - The bank's total loans grew by 13% year-on-year, with corporate loans increasing by 25.9% and retail loans by 10% [14][15] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income decreased by 23.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [18] - However, fee income increased by 21.8% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in non-interest income [18] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.86%, down 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 5 basis points year-on-year [19] - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains high at 343.51%, despite a slight decrease [19] - The overdue rate decreased to 1.10%, indicating better asset quality management [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][14] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 1.211 billion yuan, down 7.07% year-on-year and 17.74% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 111 million yuan, down 33.00% year-on-year and 50.10% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - Despite the anticipated decline in performance due to external market factors in 2024, the company is expected to benefit from new project implementations, leading to an increase in sales volume and profitability in the coming years [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company achieved a revenue of 6,661 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%. However, a significant decline of 14% is expected in 2024A [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 783 million yuan, with a notable increase of 66% year-on-year, but a decrease of 19% is projected for 2024A [2] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.33%, reflecting a decline of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year and 2.12 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] Company Strengths - The company possesses significant scale advantages with a production capacity of 1 million tons of specialized pipes, enhancing its competitive edge in niche markets such as oil pipes and high-pressure boiler tubes [5] - Ongoing projects for high-end special pipes are progressing well, with several production lines entering trial production phases, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [5][6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 636 million yuan in 2025E, 669 million yuan in 2026E, and 731 million yuan in 2027E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7, 7, and 6 respectively [6][12] - The anticipated revenue growth rates for the next few years are expected to stabilize, with a forecasted growth of 1% in 2025E and 7% in 2026E and 2027E [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 1.43% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.38% and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.20% [6][24] - The report highlights the correlation of REITs with various indices, showing a correlation of -0.08 with 10-year government bonds and 0.27 with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [6] - Recent market activities include the listing of the Southern SF Logistics REIT, which saw a first-day increase of 13.53% [8][12] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - 62 REITs, including the Jia Shi JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, released their first-quarter announcements this week [12] - 12 REITs, such as the E Fund Deep Expressway REIT, announced dividend distributions [12] - The report notes various REITs' operational data releases and investor activities, including the Guangfa Chengdu High Investment Industrial Park REIT [8][12] Market Performance - The trading volume for REITs increased to 2.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% rise, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.7% [9] - Specific sectors showed varied performance, with highway REITs trading at 710 million yuan (+1.5%) and ecological environmental REITs at 12 million yuan (-21.8%) [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall economic stability remains unchanged, and REITs possess strong allocation attributes in the long term [9] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to sector rotation and expansion opportunities, as well as improvements in macroeconomic and policy environments [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]