环球市场动态 内 地 货 币 政 策 配 合 的 必 要 性 正 在 提 升 股 票 A 股周一震荡分歧走势，沪指继续 小幅上涨，过去 11 个交易日上涨 10 次；港股偏弱震荡，午后走强；欧洲 股市走强，市场憧憬美国能够达成 贸易协定减低关税力度；美股强劲 反弹，特朗普、贝森特均释放出缓和 信号，市场获得提振，金龙中国指数 连续两日上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 周二市场风险偏好回升，美元指数 反弹，美国可能限制伊朗石油出口， 国际油价上涨，国际金价从纪录高 位回落，伦敦期铜升至逾两周高位。 固 定 收 益 周二，美国国债涨跌不一。潜在贸易 协议的乐观情绪推升风险偏好，美 债收益率曲线趋平。2 年期美债拍 卖的需求平淡，2 年期美债收益率 在招标后攀升。亚洲投资级债券开 盘疲弱，随着买盘流入，利差收窄 2- 5 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 23 日 ▪ 我们测算今年二季度中国国债净融资规模约 1.77 万亿元，较往年同期高出约 7,000 亿元；地方债总发行规模 为 2.8 万亿元，净发行规模约 ...

Group 1: Japan Market Focus - The report highlights the commencement of tariff negotiations between Japan and the US, with potential concessions from Japan including LNG and military equipment purchases, and reduced agricultural import tariffs [11][13] - The report indicates that the Japanese economy's growth is expected to be driven by domestic demand, with a focus on companies with high domestic revenue, such as drugstore chains [19][20] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in the second half of the year, with a target policy rate of 0.8%-1% by year-end [16][19] Group 2: India Market Focus - The report notes that India's overall CPI has dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years, which supports expectations for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India [33][34] - The report emphasizes that India's economy is primarily driven by domestic demand, making it less susceptible to external trade policy impacts, and forecasts a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term cyclical slowdowns [40][41] - The report identifies Tata Communications and HDFC Asset Management as key investment opportunities, with Tata Communications expected to see double-digit growth in data services revenue [42][41] Group 3: Gold Market Focus - The report discusses the increasing global demand for gold driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the impact of US tariff policies, which are expected to support higher gold prices [54][57] - The report anticipates that gold prices could reach $3,337 per ounce by mid-2025 under neutral conditions, with potential highs of $3,620 and lows of $3,081 under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [54][57] - The report highlights investment opportunities in gold mining and jewelry sectors, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold and Laopu Gold as potential beneficiaries of rising gold prices [58][57]

环球市场动态 特 朗 普 关 税 频 繁 反 转 在 于 没 有 清 晰 规 划 股 票 A 股周一低开高走显韧性，黄金股 表现极佳；港股上周五及周一复活 节假期休市，周四三大指数齐涨；欧 洲股市同样复活节假期休市，上周 四整体表现偏弱；特朗普对鲍威尔 连续开炮令市场情绪紧绷，美股主 要股指全线大跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普施压美联储及贸易战忧虑， 周一美元指跌至三年低位，国际油 价跌超 2%，避险情绪升温推动金价 再创历史新高。 固 定 收 益 美国国债收益率曲线大幅趋陡，关 税不确定性持续及美联储相关风险 出现，投资者持续撤离美国资产。亚 洲债市交投清淡，资金双向流动均 衡。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 22 日 ▪ 特朗普政策摇摆的关键原因在于没有清晰的实现路径规划。因此，应减少对特朗普 "正向目标" 的探讨，更多 关注其面临的 "负向约束"，短期约束看市场波动、中期约束看财政法案、长期约束看中期选举。特别是今年四 季度进入中期选举准备期，特朗普将面临越来越明显的选举约束。第二，近期金融市场也对 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.26% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext fell by 0.85% and 1.21% respectively[16] - The Hang Seng Index dropped significantly by 1.91%, with major tech stocks declining amid heightened competition and geopolitical tensions[11] - U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 1.73% and the Nasdaq down 3.07%, influenced by Powell's hawkish remarks and new chip export controls[9] Economic Indicators - In March, industrial production and service sectors experienced rapid growth, with industrial added value growth exceeding market expectations due to strong exports and durable goods consumption[6] - U.S. retail sales in March recorded the largest increase in two years, driven by strong auto sales, reflecting a 1.4% month-on-month growth[30] - China's investment growth in Q1 was robust, primarily driven by infrastructure investment, despite potential trade friction impacts from new tariffs[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices rose nearly 2% due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil at $62.47 per barrel and Brent at $65.85[26] - The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-year low at 99.38, down 0.8%, reflecting weakened investor confidence amid tariff policies[26] - Gold prices reached new highs, with New York gold futures up 3.4% to $3,346.4 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand[26] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.77% and the 10-year yield at 4.28%, as market sentiment shifted towards safety amid stock market declines[30] - Asian bond markets showed weaker sentiment, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads widening by 2-5 basis points[30]

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年4月14日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 股票 新加坡市场 是短期理想的避风港； 大华银行；吉宝数据中心 ETF iShares MSCI新加坡ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) (1) 欧元区焦点 不确定性增，欧央行延续 "以我为主"宽松货币政策 股票 短期等待 "美国衰退" 叙事的演绎；空中巴士 ； 德国莱茵金属 ETF 精选STOXX 欧洲航空航 天与国防ETF (2) 澳大利亚市场焦点 经济增速 有望抬升 股票 降息周期推进等待澳股转 折；澳航；昆士兰保险 ETF iShares安硕MSCI澳大利 亚ETF (3) 新加坡市场焦点 内需表现强劲抵销 出口疲软 1 本周主要国家 经济数据公布日程 上周环球 股市表现 特朗普关税推迟90天，美股连续反弹，全球市场避险情绪仍浓厚 | | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

环球市场动态 中美贸易战不断升级，近期油价剧 烈波动，上周五国际油价原油反弹 超 2%；避险需求持续推动黄金价格 上周五再创新高。 固 定 收 益 特朗普贸易战导致市场信心下降， 上周美债收益率大幅波动，10 年期 美债收益率上涨 50个基点，创逾 20 年来最大单周涨幅。周五亚洲债市 交投放缓，债券利差走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 14 日 聚 焦 特 朗 普 所 面 临 的 约 束 股 票 周五 A 股震荡上行，国产半导体领 涨大市；港股连涨四天，大型科技股 涨跌不一，黄金股连续突破；欧洲股 市在前一日大幅冲高后出现回落， 市场继续观望特朗普关税最新进 展；美股周五继续反弹，美联储官员 暗示"救市"缓和市场担忧。 外 汇 / 商 品 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 中美贸易战升级的背景下，我们建议聚焦在特朗普所面临的约束而不是揣测其目的，把美国经济和美债利率作 为预判贸易战走向和节奏的关键变量。特朗普面临的核心约束是中期选举，而中期选举选民的认知通常提前三 个季度就会产生固化，至少今年三季度就必须开始推 ...

环球市场动态 关 税 阴 云 让 美 国 通 胀 的 降 温 黯 然 失 色 股 票 中国市场周四延续反弹，但受困与 弱于预期 CPI 影响冲高回落；欧洲 股市前一日收盘后特朗普方宣布推 迟对等关税，欧洲股市周四大幅反 弹，创三年来最大涨幅；美股再度进 入动荡，特朗普推迟关税狂欢后市 场重新担忧后续经济走势，盘中一 度创下新冠疫情爆发以来最大跌 幅，随后又在逢低买盘的推动下收 复部分失地 外 汇 / 商 品 投资者持续担忧关税对全球经济的 影响，周四国际油价再度回落超 3%；国际金价再创新高；美国通胀 意外降温，美元指数跌三连跌，至近 两年低位；瑞郎和日元在 G-10 货 币中涨幅居前。 固 定 收 益 美国国债涨跌不一，收益率曲线陡 化，长端美债收益率延续上升。续发 的 30 年期国债中标收益率创 1 月 以来最高。亚洲投资级债券利差收 窄 5-15 个基点，双向交投平衡。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 4 月 11 日 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 美国 3 月通胀增速再度全面低于预期和前值，总体 CPI 环比降 0 ...

Market Overview - Chinese policies are encouraging economic recovery, leading to a rebound in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks after a previous decline, with notable performance in domestic demand-related stocks[3] - European markets ended a four-day decline with a 2.7% rise in the Euro Stoxx 600 index, driven by hopes for progress in EU tariff negotiations[3] - U.S. markets experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq opening up 4% but closing down 2.2%, as concerns over escalating tariffs impacted market sentiment[3] Currency and Commodities - Trump's insistence on increasing tariffs on China has heightened risk aversion, causing the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to outperform other G-10 currencies, while the offshore yuan hit a record low[4] - Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war have led to a decline in global demand, with New York crude oil prices falling below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021, closing at $59.58[4][28] - International gold prices rebounded after three consecutive declines, with New York gold rising 0.6% to $2,968.4 per ounce[28] Fixed Income - The upcoming tariffs and ongoing trade tensions have led to market volatility and liquidity tightening, resulting in a sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries and a steepening yield curve[5][30] - Investment-grade bond spreads in Asia narrowed by 2-5 basis points as market sentiment slightly improved[5][30] Corporate Insights - The Chinese private enterprise bond market is showing signs of recovery, with net financing improving and financing costs decreasing, indicating potential investment opportunities[7] - Alibaba's projected revenue growth of approximately 8% for Q4 2025, reaching 238.6 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA expected to rise by 35% year-on-year[9] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, with a 1.51% increase, driven by strong performances in technology and consumer sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.79%[13] - A-shares showed a steady recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.58% to 3,145 points, supported by government policies aimed at boosting agriculture and infrastructure[18]

Market Overview - European stocks experienced significant declines, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index dropping 5.1% and multiple markets reaching multi-month lows due to trade war concerns stemming from U.S. tariffs and China's strong countermeasures[3] - The U.S. stock market saw a sharp drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 5.5% to close at 38,314.9 points, marking its largest single-day decline since the COVID-19 pandemic[13] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%[13] - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that new tariffs could have a more significant economic impact than anticipated, suggesting no immediate interest rate adjustments[8] Commodity Markets - Oil prices hit a nearly four-year low, with WTI crude oil falling 7.4% to $61.99 per barrel, driven by concerns over global economic slowdown due to tariff policies[29] - Gold prices also declined, with a drop of 2.7% to $3,012.0 per ounce, following a retreat from historical highs[29] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.9% to 103.02, reflecting a stronger dollar against other currencies amid rising trade tensions[28] - The Australian dollar fell sharply by 4.6% against the U.S. dollar, indicating broader currency weakness in response to global economic concerns[28] Sector Performance - All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index declined, with energy and financial sectors leading the losses at 8.7% and 7.4%, respectively[13] - In the Asian markets, the Thai Stock Exchange Index dropped 3.2%, while the Singapore Straits Times Index fell 3.0%, reflecting regional market reactions to U.S. tariff announcements[24]

环球市场动态 关 税 等 因 素 对 内 地 PMI 的 影 响 逐 渐 显 现 股 票 周一 A 股低开低走，尾盘收窄跌幅， 大盘成交低迷；港股再度大跌，科技 股普遍表现不佳，自高点回调已超 过 10%；欧洲股市受关税困扰录得 四连跌，4 月份欧央行是否降息仍 是未知数；美股低开高走，医药、金 融股推动大盘回暖，市场对科技股 仍有明显谨慎态度，金龙中国指数 收于近一个月最低水平。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普威胁加强针对俄罗斯原油出 口的制裁力度，消息牵动国际油价 周一上涨，创下逾一个月新高。市场 忧虑关税对经济构成冲击，资金继 续流入避险产品，金价再创下纪录 新高，美元汇价靠稳。 固 定 收 益 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 2025 年 3 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.5，较上月提高 0.3；中国非制造业 PMI 为 50.8，较上月提高 0.4。3 月制 造业 PMI 较上月回升，但去年 10 月以来首次低于过去 5 年均值，反映制造业景气有所回落。结合分项数据和 实物工作量指标看，制造业的生产端和需求端均出现小幅回落，价格端进一步修复的动能有待提振。从结构上 看，装备制造业、高技术行业景气相对较好，传统 ...