Credit Analysis - Total new RMB loans in December amounted to 990 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion CNY[2] - Medium- and long-term loans for enterprises saw a significant decrease, contributing to a total credit growth rate of 7.6% in December[1] - Resident short-term loans slightly decreased, while medium- and long-term loans for residents continued to increase due to improved real estate sales[2] Social Financing Insights - Social financing scale reached 2.8575 trillion CNY in December, an increase of 924.9 billion CNY year-on-year[3] - Government and corporate bond financing showed significant growth, with government bonds notably increasing due to the issuance of refinancing special bonds[3] - The year-on-year decrease in non-bank deposits was influenced by reduced interbank deposit interest rates following new initiatives[3] Deposit Trends - Total deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion CNY year-on-year, primarily due to significant reductions in fiscal and non-bank deposits[8] - Both corporate and resident deposits increased year-on-year, with M1's decline narrowing to -1.4% and M2's growth rate rebounding to 7.3%[8] Future Outlook - The central bank plans to enhance counter-cyclical regulation and increase monetary and credit supply, aiming to lower social financing costs[4] - The mismatch of the Spring Festival holiday this year compared to last year may disrupt future financial data recovery[4] - Continuous monitoring of M1 trends is necessary due to adjustments in statistical criteria[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or company Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from traditional real-time data warehouses to a more efficient solution based on SelectDB, addressing the limitations of existing architectures [21][56] - SelectDB offers significant improvements in query performance, operational costs, and real-time data analysis capabilities, enabling businesses to respond swiftly to market changes [57] Summary by Sections 1. Old Real-Time Data Warehouse Based on CDP - The existing architecture has limitations in data writing capacity, scalability, and data management, which hinder its ability to meet growing business demands [15][17] - The operational complexity and high costs associated with maintaining the CDP cluster are significant challenges [20] 2. Challenges Faced - The value of data diminishes over time, necessitating efficient data cleaning, transformation, and analysis to provide timely insights for decision-making [10][11] - There is a need for both high-efficiency offline processing and real-time data processing capabilities [11] 3. Solution Based on SelectDB - SelectDB simplifies the architecture with a core structure consisting of FrontEnd (FE) and BackEnd (BE), allowing for linear scalability and efficient maintenance [20] - It supports various data models and is highly compatible with MySQL syntax, facilitating seamless integration with BI tools [26] 4. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the internationalization capabilities and the potential for future diverse demands, supported by a strong development team and open-source ecosystem [60][61]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The U.S. economy showed a strong-to-weak trend in the first three quarters of 2024, leading to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields after an initial rise[1] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points (Bps) expected by December 2024[1] - Concerns over potential inflation risks from Trump's policies may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates further, causing a rise in 10-year Treasury yields[1] Group 2: Trump's Policy Impact - Trump's administration is expected to prioritize spending cuts and inflation control policies, potentially leading to lower-than-expected inflation pressures[4] - The market has already priced in the risks of re-inflation due to Trump's policies, which could lead to a significant rise in Treasury yields[5] - Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflation, but other policies aimed at reducing government spending may counteract this effect[6] Group 3: Consumer and Employment Trends - U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow down in 2025, with consumer spending becoming increasingly reliant on wage income due to diminishing support from savings and government transfers[13] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with structural risks accumulating in the job market, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises[17] - Consumer spending growth may face challenges as government transfer payments are likely to decrease under Trump's administration[16] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Fed's forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was reduced from 100 Bps to 50 Bps due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies[21] - If inflation pressures do not materialize as expected, the Fed may have more room to cut rates beyond the current forecast[23] - The potential for a return of the "Trump trade" could create upward pressure on Treasury yields later in 2025, depending on the economic landscape[33]

引言 回顾2024年，宏观经济弱修复伴随着有效需求不足特征延续，在此背景下一季度央行实施降准 +定向降息+5年期LPR调降，货币政策取向积极呵护资金价格持稳，同时财政支出较快但融资 偏慢推动"资产荒"进一步深化，债市呈现快速走牛。二季度以来央行多次提示长端利率风险且地 产政策预期升温带来债市的短暂回调，不过受收入端和融资端制约财政政策力度边际放缓，叠加 监管禁止"手工补息"使得存款流向非银，货基、债基和银行理财等规模明显扩容，机构欠配压力 仍较大，整体呈现资金面自发性宽松、债市区间震荡的格局。进入下半年，7月政治局会议后专 项债发行明显提速，且11月人大常委会明确本轮化债额度和具体方案，年末政府债供给进一步 增加，不过央行在三季度集中落地30Bps降息和50Bps降准，并随着货币政策调控框架升级加 大公开市场国债买卖和买断式逆回购力度，DR007资金利率整体稳定在略高于政策利率的水平 上波动，资金分层现象也较往年明显缓解。随着12月政治局会议在2011年来首次重提"适度宽 松的货币政策"，债市热情被进一步引燃，债市收益率持续下破历史低位。 展望2025年，既是"十四五"规划的收官之年，又是"十五五"的谋划之年 ...

如 有 问 题 敬 请 联 系 我 部 客 户 经 理 或 直 接 在 本 公 众 号 后 台 留 言 ★ 核心要点 会议结果：1、基准利率下调25Bps至4.25%-4.50%，IOER和ONRRP下调至4.4%和4.25%；2、缩表规模上 限维持600亿美元（250亿美元国债+350亿美元MBS）。 经济前景：1、经济描述维持"经济活动稳健扩张"，并将2024年与2025年的GDP增速预测分别由9月的2.0% 和2.0%上调至2.5%和2.1%。2、维持"失业率有所上行但仍然较低"的表述，并将2024年与2025年失业率预 测分别由4.4%和4.4%下调至4.2%和4.3%。3、维持"通胀率在实现2%的目标方面取得了进展"的表述，但将 2024-2026年末核心PCE预测分别由2.6%、2.2%和2.0%上调至2.8%、2.5%和2.2%。4、在有关后续降息 的表述方面，将"在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行进一步调整时"改为"在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标 区间的程度和时机时"。 利率预测：点阵图显示美联储对2025年末联邦基金利率预期中值由9月的3.4%提升至3.9%，暗示明年可能仅 有50Bps的降 ...

★ 数据速递 如 有 问 题 敬 请 联 系 我 部 客 户 经 理 或 直 接 在 本 公 众 号 后 台 留 言 2024年8月规模以上工业增加值同比+4.5%，前值+5.1%；8月社零消费同比+2.1%，前值+2.7%；1-8 月固定资产投资同比+3.4%，前值+3.6%，其中地产投资同比-10.2%，前值-10.2%，基建投资同比 +4.4%，前值+4.9%，制造业投资同比+9.1%，前值+9.3%；8月全国城镇调查失业率为5.3%，前值为 5.2%。 ★ 核心要点 综合分析：8月经济数据显示我国消费需求低迷拖累生产端同比少增的同时，固定资产投资增速也进一步放 缓。具体来看： ①消费方面，尽管食品粮油及饮料等基本生活类商品销售情况表现较好，但我国有效需求不足的问题仍较为 明显，暑期假期对消费的提振作用相对有限，社零主要分项商品零售额同比仅增1.9%，服务零售额累计同比 增速亦创数据创设来新低，整体来看居民消费需求有所走弱。 ②投资方面，8月制造业投资、高技术服务业投资仍以较高速度增长，但受地产销售仍处历史低位、地产价格 仍未改变下行趋势的影响地产投资延续弱势。此外，尽管8月财政融资有所提速，但可能由于 ...

财富管理行业系列报告 选择兼具效率和品质、治理结构完善的平台型公司 中信证券研究部 非银行金融行业、计算机行业 2021年9月2日 1 CONTENTS 目录 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 1. | 股东价值主要来自具有壁垒的商业模式 | | 2. | 需求：中国财富管理正步入黄金发展期 | | 3. | 供给：银行、第三方、券商三分天下 | | 4. | 痛点：利益不一致、管理能力和投顾能力不足 | | 5. | 探索：中国市场正在构筑的商业模式 | | 6. | 投资建议：选择有壁垒的商业模式 | 11 中信证券 股东价值主要来自具有壁垒的商业模式 2 需求只是必要条件，并不等同于股东价值 从需求端来看，财富管理已步入高速发展的黄金期，但需求不等于股东价值。 只有具有护城河的商业模式才能产生股东价值。 需求只是必要条件，稀缺的供给端更重要。因为竞争会由蓝海变为红海。 只有持续为用户创造价值的公司，才具有长期存在的合理性。 3 财富管理的基础概念 ■ 财富管理指以客户为中心，从客户需求出发 ...

降本为基，行业预期有望 氢能行业 2024 年投资策略 | 2023.12.28 中信证券研究部 核心观点 천 氢能行业首席 分析师 $1010512080004 复能与能源转型行业 所取 国子大市 (集中) 展望 2024 年，燃料电池汽车产业链补贴有望落地，加之产业链降本效应的票 积，FCEV 产销量增长或再度加速，绿氢及其衍生品的新应用场景和商业模式 有望成型，有望带动缘氢项目的投资和电解槽需求高速增长。因此 2024 年或 是行业预期修复的一年，FCEV 和绿氢产业链发展均有望提速，我们维持行业 "强于大市"评级。 l 2023 年回廠，FCEV 产销不及预期，線氫项目规划大增。2023 年前 11 月，燃 料电池车产销近 4000 辆，相比 2022 年全年增长 42.6%/34.8%，但距市场年初 预期的 80～100%的增速有落差。根据 thinkercar 数据，2023 年前 11 月，商用 车上险量为 4752 台，CR3 为 37%，燃料电池系统 CR5 为 47%，亿华通/捷氢 科技/重塑科技位居前三，根据我们统计，当前有 55 个绿氢项目披露投资进展， 其中 20%的项目处于开工阶段 ...

CITICSH 建筑行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 潘建平 交流内容 基建及房地产建筑行业研究方法探讨 ■ 园林及装饰工程行业研究方法探讨 ■ 专业工业工程行业研究方法探讨 ■ <ITI(GH 2 基建及房建行业研 第方法探讨 研究逻辑链条: 行业—公司 ■ 投资逻辑与思路 . <ITICSH 3 基建及房建行业研究逻辑链条 行业分析部分 ▪ 行业属性 = 投资拉动型行业 = 基建及房建是典型的投资拉动型行业,其需求受固定资产投资,尤其是基建及房地产领 域固定资产投资的波动影响较为显著 ▪ 周期性行业 ■ 由于与主要的宏观经济指标固定资产投资高度相关,因此其景气波动体现出与宏观经济 周期性波动的一致性 ▪ 行业的"弱周期性"趋势越来越明显 ▪ 劳动密集型行业 = 就当前而言,中国建筑业还是典型的劳动密集型产业 = 建筑市场上的不规范行为和建筑市场供过于求的局面,造成带资承包、垫资工程成为较 为普遍的现象。另,国内建筑市场正逐步在与国际建筑市场并轨,承包运行方式已开始 向资金需求量大的"经营—维护"、"建设—经营—转让"、"建设—拥有—经营"等 多样化项目承包模式发展,建筑企业的资金状况成为合同签约率和实现项目预 ...