CITI CORR 计算机行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 张新峰 目 录 ▪ 计算机行业概况 ▪下游行业需求分析 ▪ 公司研究与估值方法 ▪ 投资建议 CITI & G 2 行业概况：产品特点 ▪ 软件产品规模特点 > 固定成本较高：绝大部分为沉没成本 > 可变成本较低：复制/盗版的边际成本接近零 > 规模经济效应突出：网络效应 > 路径依赖较强：更换成本较高 > 无形: 用户体验、价值认同、定价难度 ▪ IT服务特点 > 固定成本较低、可变成本较高、规模效应不突出 ▷ 路径依赖、无形 ■竞争的核心 > 满足用户需求、提升用户体验 → 为用户创造价值 CITI GO 3 行业概况：企业分类 ▪ 计算机硬件 > PC及服务器设备 (PC、服务器、外设) > 专用计算机设备 (如ATM、税控收款机、电纸书、RFID等) ▪ 计算机软件 基础 > 基础软件及套装软件（操作系统、数据库、ERP等） > 行业应用软件（金融、电信、政府、电力等行业软件） 套裝 软件 . IT服务 > 外包服务（离岸/在岸软件外包、BPO、非核心业务外包等） > 系统集成 定制软件 IT服务 ▪ 国内内上市公司以软件和IT服务为主 CITI ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the home appliance industry Core Insights - The home appliance industry is closely linked to the increase in consumer spending and improvements in living standards [14] - The industry is characterized by strong competition, leading to the exit of inefficient capacities and a trend towards consolidation [18][25] - The industry is in a mature phase internationally, while domestically it is transitioning from growth to maturity due to low penetration rates, especially in rural markets [23] Industry Overview - The home appliance sector includes major appliances (e.g., refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines) and small appliances (e.g., vacuum cleaners, coffee makers) [3] - Major appliances exhibit strong homogeneity, while small appliances and consumer electronics show significant differentiation [3] - The cost structure of major appliances includes components such as compressors, motors, and various materials, with labor and depreciation being significant cost factors [6][8][9][10] Key Drivers - Technological upgrades are driving consumer upgrades, with innovations in energy efficiency and product features [15] - The demand for high-end appliances has been increasing since 2009, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [20] - The penetration rates of various appliances in rural areas are significantly lower compared to urban areas, suggesting growth potential [19] Competitive Landscape - Domestic companies face competition from international brands, with a notable presence of companies like Samsung, LG, and Panasonic [26][27][28] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards energy-efficient and environmentally friendly products, which is driving further consolidation among leading firms [27] - The small appliance market is characterized by low penetration rates, presenting substantial growth opportunities [30] Research Methodology and Stock Selection - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the industry lifecycle and competitive dynamics when selecting stocks [23] - Key factors for stock selection include the company's core competitiveness, market demand outlook, and the competitive landscape within the industry [38] - The report suggests that investment opportunities may arise from discrepancies between market valuations and the company's performance outlook [40]

CITI CORR 基础化工行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 刘旭明 自我介绍- — 刘 / 885 >中信证券研究部基础化工行业首席分析师。 >清华大学化学学士、经济学学士、经济学硕士。 >2003–2004, 申银万国证券研究所；2004年至今, 中信证券。 >2006、2007、2008年《新财富》最佳分析师"基础化工"行业第 一名。2009年《新财富》最佳分析师"基础化工"行业第四名。 ▷电 话：010-84588908 ▷手 机：13911628015 ▷Email: lxm@citics.com CITICSE 2 目录 ✓行业概览 ✓基础化工行业上市公司分类 ✓化工产品产业链 ✓基础化工行业提供超额收益机会 ✓研究分析的8个关键点 CITI SE 3 上市公司构成：行业代表档差，行业分类难，板块数应差 下游需求角度；农资板块占39%；纺织上游原料占20%，近一半纯碱用于玻璃；氯 碱和有机硅应用较为分散 ▪ 上游原料：煤（电）、化学矿、石油化工产品 ▪ 中信证券化工分类更加详尽，适合做指数比较，将在WIND上提供给大家，欢迎批 评指证 □ 钾肥□ 氮肥口 化学农药□ 涤纶■ 粘胶□ 委 绝 口 聚氨酯 ...

CITI CONT 航空机场行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 首席分析师 马晓立 高级分析师 曾旭 中信证券分析师简介- 航空机场宁亚研究员 马晓立 : ▪ 中信证券交通运输行业首席分析师。 ▪ 浙江大学经济学硕士。2006年2月加盟中信证券研究部。2001年3月- 2006年2月，联合证券研究所交通运输行业分析师； ▪ 《新财富》2005-2007年最佳分析师"航空机场"行业第一名 ▪ 《新财富》2008-2009年最佳分析师"交通运输"行业第一名。 ▪曾旭 ▪ 中信证券研究部航空机场行业高级分析师。 ▪ 美国城市大学工商管理硕士MBA，中国民航大学管理学院客座教授，东方 航空公司服务质量督察。 ▪ 7年民航业和上市航空公司从业背景。2009年加盟中信证券研究部。 2008 年3月-2009年6月国金证券研究所交通运输行业分析师 ▪ 《新财富》2009年最佳分析师"交通运输"行业第一名。 《新财富》2009年最佳分析师"交通运输"行业第五名〈私募和资管投票〉 ■ 2 目录 ▪ 行业概况 ▪ 行业重要分析指标 ▪ 收入与成本构成 ▪ 定价 ▪ 研究方法与投资逻辑 ▪ 估值方法 CITI GG 3 行业教师 产品特 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the automotive industry Core Insights - The automotive industry in China has experienced significant growth, with sales increasing from 1.8 million units in 1999 to 13.64 million units in 2009, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% [20] - China has become the largest automotive market globally, surpassing the United States in 2009 [22][23] - The demand for automobiles is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projections of 16.9 million units sold in 2010, reflecting a 24% increase from 2009 [44] Industry Overview - The automotive industry is divided into several sub-sectors: passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and automotive parts [4][10] - Passenger vehicles include sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, while commercial vehicles encompass buses and trucks [6][9] - The market share of domestic brands is increasing, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector, where they dominate due to cost advantages [13][14] Sales and Market Trends - In 2009, the sales of passenger cars reached 7.47 million units, with a notable increase in the sales of SUVs and MPVs [5][44] - The report highlights that the sales of heavy trucks and large buses are expected to grow significantly, driven by economic recovery and increased infrastructure projects [46][47] - The demand for mid-to-high-end vehicles is closely linked to economic indicators such as stock and real estate markets [75] Consumer Demand Factors - Key factors influencing consumer demand include purchasing power, willingness to buy, and macroeconomic expectations [24][25] - The report indicates that the average car ownership in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, suggesting room for growth [27] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of domestic and international players, with major companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets [16][17] - The report notes that the automotive industry is undergoing structural changes, with increasing collaboration between manufacturers and suppliers, especially in the electric vehicle sector [50] Financial Performance - The profitability of the automotive industry is expected to remain strong, with return on equity (ROE) levels slightly above international averages [69] - The report emphasizes that the cost structure, including raw material prices and production efficiency, plays a crucial role in determining profitability [60][66] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to transition from rapid growth to stable growth, with expected sales growth rates of 10-15% over the next 3-5 years [43] - The report anticipates that demand in second- and third-tier cities will outpace national averages due to lower ownership rates and rising consumer purchasing power [43][79]

CITI ( 医药停业研究方法 中信证券研究部 姚杰 目 录 一。行业 （一）整个行业发展趋势 (二) 各子行业发展趋势 （三）行业政策对行业影响分析 二．投资 （一）公司 （二）投资 CITI GG 2 目录 一。行业 （一）整个行业发展趋势 1．全球医药行业．放缓，转移，并购 2. 中国医药行业。发展，提高，整合，国际化 3. 中国与海外医药行业发展对比 CITI GOO 3 1、全球医药行业：放缓，转移，并购 CITIGE 4 全球兵药行业：放缓，转移，排购 ▪ 全球医药行业增速放缓。 2009年，8370亿美元，7% 900 1 14 800 700 600 500 400 8 300 200 6 100 0 2006 2008 1995 1996 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2009 1997 2000 2001 2007 市场规模（十亿美元） ◆一增长率（%） 12 10 全球药品市场规模与增速 2002～2009年全球药品市场销售额 按恒定汇率计算 銷售额(亿美元, 年份 的年增长率(%) 按恒定汇率计算) 2002 5150 9.1 2003 5620 9.1 ...

Macroeconomic Indicators - GDP growth is measured through production, expenditure, and income methods, with components including household consumption (C), investment (I), government consumption (G), and net exports (NX)[10] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) are key indicators for inflation, with CPI being a primary tool for monetary policy observation[11] - Monetary policy indicators include MO, M1, and M2, with M2 reflecting overall social demand and future inflation pressure[12] Investment and Consumption - Credit growth leads investment growth by approximately 1 quarter, with central government investments driving local investments in the current cycle[21][22] - Consumer confidence and employment are leading indicators for consumption growth, with retail sales and income levels being key metrics[25][27] - Investment growth is influenced by factors such as credit growth, interest rates, and export performance[24] Export and Inflation - Export growth is influenced by global economic conditions, RMB exchange rates, and export tax rebates, with OECD leading indicators and PMI new export orders as key predictors[34][35] - Inflation is driven by factors such as food prices, global commodity prices, and monetary supply, with M2 leading inflation by 12 months[39][42][66] Macroeconomic Policies - Monetary policy tools include reserve requirement ratios, interest rates, and open market operations, with a focus on dynamic fine-tuning[52] - Fiscal policy is characterized by budget deficits and government-led investments, with fiscal spending having a multiplier effect on GDP[62][65]

政治体制 | | | · · 议会 | | | > 文化科技 。好莱坞、迪斯尼、新闻集团、CNN · 谷歌、亚马逊 | | | | Google amazon.com | CITI GH 主要内容 一、传媒文化行业分类 > 行业分类 > 典型上市公司 二、传媒行业分析特点 三、传媒文化行业细分行业跟踪指标 四、传媒文化行业分析框架 > 需求分析 > 细分子行业分析 CITICSH 国家统计局分类 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|----------------------------| | 大类划分 | 国家统计局《文化及相关产业分类》 \n子类 | 大类划分 | 子类 | | 一、新闻服务 | 1. 新闻服务 | 五、网络文化服务 | 1. 互联网信息服务 | | 二、出版发行和版权服务 | 1. 书、报、刊出版发行 | 六、文化休闲娱乐服务 | 1. 旅游文化服务 ...

CITICSH 电力设备行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 刘磊 杨凡 目录 ▪ 行业特点 ▪ 子行业扫描 ▪ 估值方法 ▪ 投资策略 不同用途:发电侧、电网侧、用户侧 > 种类众多:风电机组、核电机组、火 电机组、水电机组、变压器、开关、 换流阀、控制保护、变频器 ... > 设备单价:百元/台～亿元/台 ▪ 装备制造业 服务于电力工业! CITICS部 4 行业特点一 需求 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-----------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | ▪ 投资造成的需求是行业分析最关键的要素，行业景气度受政策影响大 | | ▪ 电力建设与经济发展息息相关 | | | | | | | | | | | | 经济发展 — > 电荒 — > 电源建设 — > ...

CITICSE 商业零售行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 赵雪芹 胡维波 研究方法:找出规律,发现机会 ■找出行业运行规律:跟宏观经济的关系、跟人均收入的关系;消费自 身升级的特征:不同收入阶段匹配不同的业态发展; ■各个子行业的自身运行特点 百货:地租式经营 城市: 产业链整合 家电:产业链整合 ▪发现投资机会 百货:地段地段还是地段+连锁能力+管理能力 城市:采购、规模、物流、管理 家电: 规模、物流、管理、服务; CITICS部 投资逻辑: 消费崛起+消费升级 ▪ 宏观背景: 消费崛起+消费升级 ▪ 投资零售成长股的三个条件: （1）估值合理; （2）有外延扩张或可标准化复 制的能力; （3）公司治理机制良好，能够做到精细化管理。Retail is Detail! ▪超市子行业:看好跨区域扩张能力和供应链管理能力突出的公司 ▪ 百货子行业:看好中西部区域龙头+优秀民营企业 ■ 家电及IT连锁子行业:行业集中度低,市场空间大,看好龙头公司,强者恒强 ■ 首推低估值、高成长、优治理的天音控股、苏宁电器、宏图高科、海宁皮城(估值 较高，但持续高成长）;第二,我们认为估值相对合理、公司治理较好、受益于区 域经济发展 ...