Market Overview - A-shares continued to fluctuate with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, Shenzhen Component down 0.05%, and ChiNext down 0.26%[18] - U.S. stocks ended a three-day rally with major indices declining; the Dow Jones fell 132 points (0.31%), S&P 500 dropped 1.12%, and Nasdaq decreased 2.04%[11] - European stocks generally closed lower, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.72% and the DAX down 1.17%[11] Economic Insights - The global strategic power restructuring is accelerating, with the "China-U.S.-Russia" triangle undergoing asymmetric reconstruction, impacting geopolitical dynamics[8] - China's economy is expected to show a "U"-shaped growth pattern, maintaining a growth rate of around 5% by 2025[8] - The U.S. economy may remain resilient, but uncertainties regarding policies need to be monitored[8] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rose, with WTI crude up 0.9% to $69.65 per barrel, driven by tightening supply outlooks[28] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.3% to 104.55, influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields[27] - Copper prices reached new highs amid potential tariffs on imports, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield at 4.02% and the 10-year yield at 4.35%[30] - The spread of Chinese investment-grade bonds widened by 1-4 basis points, indicating increased risk perception[30] Stock Performance Highlights - CyberArk reported subscription revenue of $243 million, exceeding market expectations, with a target price of $422[11] - Alibaba's latest model launch contributed to a significant increase in its stock price, reflecting strong market interest[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.6%, driven by strong performances in technology and consumer sectors[13]

环球市场动态 " 对 等 关 税 " 存 在 一 定 预 期 差 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普拟收紧对委内瑞拉的制裁， 周一国际油价上涨超 1%；报道指特 朗普对等关税将更具针对性，缓解 金融市场紧张情绪，铜价受到提振。 固 定 收 益 周一美国国债下跌，特朗普关税减 免言论刺激风险偏好升温。另有密 集公司债发行，16 家公司发债的总 筹资金额近 250 亿美元。亚洲债券 情绪坚挺，中国 IG 利差收窄 1-2 个 基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 25 日 .s 入 a. 竹 股 票 周一 A 股探底回升，深海经济延续强 势；港股低开高走，午后不断上升， 家电股涨幅居前；欧洲股市走势分 歧，关税不确定性令市场谨慎；美股 科技股超跌反弹带领三大指数大涨， 特朗普表示关税将更具针对性缓解 市场对于全面性关税的担忧。 ▪ 我们认为 4 月或将是特朗普关税政策落地最为密集的时间点，4 月初《美国优先贸易政策备忘录》调查结果与 "对等关税" 的出台将是关键节点。"对等关税" 与对华关税应当区分看待："对等关税" ...

股 票 周三A股窄幅震荡，三大指数齐收跌； 港股分歧走势，恒指小幅上涨，科技 股拖累恒科指下跌；欧洲市场等待美 联储议息结果，总体情绪较为谨慎， 收盘涨跌不一；美联储维持利率不 变，鲍威尔发言安抚市场信心，美股 三大指数收涨，金龙中国指数连续第 二天下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 受到中国市场供应收紧迹象提振， 周三国际铜价今早突破 1 万美元/ 吨；周三金价在高位靠稳；美国库存 数据缓解对需求的担忧，国际油价 小幅上涨。 环球市场动态 美 联 储 在 等 待 更 清 晰 的 信 息 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 3 月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。本次点阵图显示今年目标利率中枢为 3.9%， 与 2024 年 12 月会议点阵图持平，同时上调今年通胀预测和失业率预测、下调经济增速预测。"等待更清晰的 信息" (Wait for greater clarity) 成为美联储的新口号，"通胀暂时论" 重出江湖，鲍威尔依旧认为长期通胀预期 稳定 (well anchored)。当前 "暂时性通胀 + 经济增长较弱 + 高不确定性" 的组合对应点阵图显示的年内 2 次 降息，我们认为三者中任何 ...

环球市场动态 美 国 滞 胀 风 险 的 阴 云 持 续 股 票 周二中国市场反弹，A 股仍处震荡 走势，港股权重股多数上行，科 技、医药、黄金板块表现亮眼；德 国联邦议会顺利通过财政预算案， 欧洲股市周二收高；美联储议息前 夕美股科技股拖累三大指数齐跌， 金龙中国指数小幅回落。 外 汇 / 商 品 供应过剩担忧掩盖了地缘紧张局 势，周二国际油价下跌；避险盘推 动黄金最高升至每盎司 3,047.5 美 元，再创纪录新高。 固 定 收 益 美国国债先跌后回升，中期美债引 领上涨， 20 年期国债发行获得强 劲需求。美股下跌，加之油价下滑， 支撑了美国国债的反弹势头。亚洲 投资级债券利差收窄 0.75-1.5 个基 点，中国 TMT 表现强劲。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 19 日 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 不同于上世纪 70-80 年代滞胀时期美国经济内生动力不足，当前美国科技发展等浪潮仍在继续，但紧缩的货币 与财政政策、特朗普关税等政策的负面影响，都将持续构成美国滞胀风险的阴云。未来通胀隐忧集中在特朗普 关 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - European stocks have shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with large-cap stocks leading the way and contributing significantly to gains. The report suggests that the upward trend in European stocks may continue due to various factors including economic policies and valuation comparisons with US stocks [7][10]. - The report highlights that the OECD has downgraded economic outlooks for most member countries, indicating potential challenges ahead [7]. - In the US market, despite mixed retail sales data, the overall consumer resilience remains strong, and major internet companies are seen as having opportunities for growth despite recent volatility [10][28]. Summary by Sections Global Market Dynamics - The US retail data has shown mixed results, with trade representative comments reducing uncertainty around tariff measures, leading to a decline in the dollar index to a two-month low [4][28]. - International oil prices have risen due to increased pressure on Iran, while copper prices have reached a five-month high amid China's plans to boost consumption [4][28]. European Market Insights - European stocks are expected to benefit from a combination of lower valuations compared to US stocks and supportive economic policies from the European Central Bank [7][10]. - The report notes that the geopolitical uncertainty in Europe has decreased, which may further support the valuation of European stocks [7]. US Market Insights - The report indicates that major internet companies in the US are experiencing volatility but present a buying opportunity due to their strong consumer demand and ability to manage costs [10]. - The report emphasizes that AI continues to drive growth in the internet sector, with companies leveraging technology for efficiency and cost reduction [10]. Asian Market Insights - The report mentions that the A-share market showed mixed results, with sectors like dairy and humanoid robots gaining traction, while others like non-ferrous metals faced declines [17][19]. - The Hong Kong market saw varied performances among major indices, with consumer stocks benefiting from government initiatives to boost consumption [12][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the potential for growth in the consumer sector in China, driven by government policies aimed at increasing household income and consumption [15]. - Companies like Meituan are expected to maintain stable growth in their core local business, although international expansion may pose challenges [15]. Fixed Income Market Insights - The US Treasury yield curve has flattened, with market focus shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for indications on future interest rate movements [5][31]. - The report notes that the bond market is experiencing mixed trading activity, with some sectors seeing inflows while others remain subdued [31].

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年3月17日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 欧洲市场焦点 市场对欧盟和德国的 财政政策感兴奋 股票 增加国防开支是欧盟 "对症" 的财政措施； 阿迪达斯；龙沙集团 ETF 华夏MSCI欧洲优势股票 (美元对冲) ETF (2) 英国市场焦点 英国本土经济 仍显挣扎 股票 美国的不确定性正影响英 国市场; IMI；Alpha Group ETF iShares安硕MSCI英国 ETF (3) 台股市场焦点 通胀及经济放慢将支持 今年小幅度降息 资料来源：彭博、中信证券财富管理 (香港) 注：截至2025年3月14日 股票 关注英伟达GTC 2025 大会；日月光；家登 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 本周主要国家 经济数据公布日程 上周环球 股市表现 特朗普关税引发贸易战担忧，全球市场普遍震荡下跌，A股坚韧 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- ...

环球市场动态 美 国 经 济 下 行 压 力 不 容 乐 观 股 票 特朗普关税引发的贸易战担忧笼罩 全球市场，周四 A 股继续回调，科 技板块降温；港股三大指数齐跌， 录得五连跌，煤炭板块逆市上涨； 欧洲股市普遍收低，特朗普威胁对 欧洲酒类征收 200%关税；美股再 大跌，标指陷入技术性回调。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场仍忧虑美国政府贸易政策，避 险情绪升温，周四美元指数走强； 日元跑赢 G-10 货币；金价再创历 史新高；普京表示美俄如达成能源 合作协议或提振俄罗斯对欧洲的天 然气供应，欧洲天然气期货应声大 跌；国际能源署称贸易战将威胁全 球需求前景，国际油价下跌。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 14 日 。 .s 入 a. 竹 受特朗普政府裁员、关税政策担忧等因素影响，美国就业市场出现多个走弱的信号，挑战者企业裁员人数飙升， 失业率上升等。1 月消费支出也环比超预期转负，多重经济数据显示美国经济衰退风险在快速上升，当前亚特 兰大联邦储备银行的 GDPNow 模型基于已有数据预测今年一季度美国 GDP 或 ...

环球市场动态 内 地 消 费 政 策 全 面 性 升 级 与 创 新 股 票 周五中国市场齐走强，内蒙古公布 最新育儿补贴政策超预期，消费板 块引领大市；德国推动国防开支法 案推进顺利，欧洲市场情绪整体向 好；美股连跌数日后反弹，创下大 选日以来最大单日涨幅，金龙中国 指数同样表现不俗。 外 汇 / 商 品 俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的和平谈判陷 入僵局，上周五国际油价上升 1%；美元指数跟隨美债回落，国 际金价突破每盎司 3,000 美元。 固 定 收 益 美股反弹推动美国国债下跌，风险 情绪改善叠加通胀预期飙升影响， 周五美债普遍下行，收益率曲线急 剧走平。德国就国防和基础设施支 出达成初步协议，德国国债遭到抛 售。亚洲投资级债券普遍卖盘较多， 利差扩大 3-5 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 17 日 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 3 月 16 日，《提振消费专项行动方案》正式发布，标志着中国消费政策的全面性升级与创新。本方案部署了 8 方面 30 项重点任务，建议着重关注以下六个方面：一) 多渠道促进居民 ...

环球市场动态 美 国 通 胀 下 半 年 存 反 弹 隐 忧 股 票 中国股市周二回调，A 股窄幅震 荡，港股情绪偏弱，市场观望特朗 普关税下一步走向；欧洲股市周三 收高，从近期跌势中反弹，市场对 乌克兰可能停火及美国 CPI 数据作 出积极反应；美股科技股推动反 弹，通胀数据缓解经济忧虑。 外 汇 / 商 品 俄乌冲突持续，加上美国公布最新 汽油日均需求为 11 月份以来最 高，周三国际油价上 2%；美国 CPI 数据温和，投资者正在评估美 国经济前景和美联储的利率路径， 伦铜走高，金价上升。 固 定 收 益 美国短期国债领跌，尽管 CPI 数据 温和，但市场对美联储降息的押注 继续减弱。美国 10 年期国债发行中 标收益率低于发行前交易水平。亚 洲投资级债券相对平稳，流动较轻。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 3 月 13 日 .s 入 a. 竹 ▪ 美国 2 月通胀增速全面低于预期和前值，总体 CPI 环比升 0.2% (前值 0.5%)，核心 CPI 环比升 0.2% (前值 0.4%)，总体 CPI 同比升 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the US stock market, predicting continued volatility and a downward trend until late March or early April 2025, with a focus on sectors such as healthcare, consumer services, traditional telecommunications, and utilities [6][14]. Core Insights - The US stock market is facing significant pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and economic indicators that have fallen short of expectations, leading to a potential rotation of funds out of the market [6][14]. - The report highlights the resilience of the US labor market, as indicated by an increase in job vacancies and resignation rates, which may alleviate recession fears [6][26]. - The copper industry is expected to see price increases due to anticipated tariffs on imports, which could create supply shortages in the US market [14][26]. - The pharmaceutical sector is poised for valuation recovery, supported by government policies aimed at optimizing drug pricing and promoting innovative drug development [14][19]. Summary by Sections US Market Dynamics - The US stock market has retraced all gains since the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2024, with consumer discretionary and industrial sectors facing significant impacts from tariff uncertainties [6][14]. - Major US indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.14% and the S&P 500 down 0.76% [8][10]. European Market Dynamics - European markets also faced declines, with the Stoxx 600 index down 1.7%, driven by concerns over economic growth and tariff announcements from the US [10][14]. Asian Market Dynamics - The Asian markets showed mixed results, with the Thai market gaining 0.9%, while other markets like the Philippines and Singapore experienced declines [21][22]. Sector Performance - In the US, the industrial sector was notably affected by tariff announcements, leading to a 1.54% drop in the industrial index [10][14]. - In the Hong Kong market, sectors such as consumer goods and technology showed positive performance, with notable gains in companies like China Resources Beverage [10][11]. Individual Company Insights - Snowflake reported better-than-expected revenue performance, with AI products contributing to growth, and the company is viewed positively for its long-term investment potential [8][19]. - The copper sector is recommended for investment due to expected price increases driven by tariff-related supply constraints, with specific companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum highlighted [14][19].