Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the pharmaceutical and communication sectors leading the market[3] - The Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index fell by 0.15% and 0.34%, respectively, but narrowed their losses in the afternoon[12] - European stock markets rose, with the Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.43%[10] - U.S. stock markets opened high but closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 204 points or 0.46%[10] Currency and Commodities - Concerns over Trump's pressure on Russia and hopes for a tariff agreement boosted oil prices, with WTI crude rising by 3.75% to $69.21 per barrel[27] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.26%, reaching a one-month high of 98.886[27] - Gold prices ended a four-day decline, rising by 0.42% to $3,324 per ounce[27] Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury prices rose, with the 7-year note auction attracting strong demand, yielding 4.092%[31] - Asian bond markets showed slow trading but remained firm, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[31] Corporate Highlights - Intel's quarterly earnings exceeded expectations, but the company faces challenges due to tariffs and restructuring costs, leading to lower profit guidance[9] - Digital Realty's Q2 performance surpassed market expectations, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance[9] Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Monetary Authority announced the implementation of a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers starting August 1, with the first licenses expected by year-end[6]

Group 1: US Market Focus - Inflation risks remain high, and the Federal Reserve maintained its stance in July [7][12] - TACO trading continues to be established, with companies like Broadcom and GE Vernova highlighted for their growth potential [15][18] - The impact of tariffs on US importers is significant, with the potential for increased consumer prices in sensitive categories [11][10] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The US-Japan agreement reduces market uncertainty, with tariff reductions benefiting Japanese automakers [27][34] - Companies like Fanuc and Bridgestone are expected to benefit from the lowered tariffs, enhancing their market positions [39][38] - The political landscape in Japan is shifting, with pressures on leadership potentially affecting market stability [31][32] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Economic growth and inflation are expected to slow, supporting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand [45][52] - The Thai stock market has reflected multiple risks, with companies like CP ALL and Central Pattana being monitored for performance [45][54] - The Thai government is negotiating to lower tariffs on exports to the US, which could positively impact trade dynamics [50][51]

Financial Performance - Sands China reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in net revenue to $1.8 billion in Q2 2025, but net profit fell by 13% to $214 million[1] - Adjusted EBITDA remained flat at $566 million, with the Londoner property contributing significantly to performance recovery[1] - The Londoner’s EBITDA doubled year-on-year to $205 million, outperforming market expectations[1] Market Trends - Total gaming revenue in Q2 2025 was flat at $1.7 billion, while the industry grew by 8%, indicating Sands China's growth lagged behind the market[2] - Sands China's market share decreased by 2 percentage points year-on-year to 22.5%[2] - VIP gaming revenue fell by 13% to $155 million, contrasting with a 13% industry growth, despite a slight increase in win rate[2] Operational Insights - The Londoner’s renovation has positively impacted performance, with a total of 10,800 hotel rooms post-renovation, maintaining the largest room count among Macau's six licensed operators[3] - The Venetian's EBITDA declined by 10% to $236 million, primarily due to poor gaming win rates[1] - Sands China is focusing on high-end mass market growth while consolidating its base mass market share[6]

环球市场动态 对 美 出 口 修 复 助 力 内 地 工 企 利 润 改 善 股 票 周五A股下跌，但科创板尾盘拉升； 港股三大指数齐跌超 1%，惟南下 资金大幅流入；欧洲股市普遍收跌， 投资者继续等待美欧贸易谈判进 展；美股周五收涨，部分企业乐观 财报和贸易协议提振市场情绪。 外 汇 / 商 品 石油市场面临供应过剩风险，上周 五国际油价下跌超 1%；市场憧憬 美美国与大部分地区有望达成贸易 协议，美元指数连续第二天反弹， 黄金延续跌势。 固 定 收 益 美国国债收益率走高，美国经济数 据相对稳健，特朗普与鲍威尔同行 淡化美联储解雇疑虑。亚洲市场月 末资金流动偏向卖盘，利差走阔 1- 2 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 7 月 28 日 123 ▪ 内地 6 月工业企业利润增速有所回升，结构上主要是国有企业、外资企业和中游行业利润增速回暖。"量" 的提 高和 "利润率" 边际改善是 6 月工业企业利润好转的主要拉动因素，两者或主要源于 6 月对美国出口增速的回 升，5 月 12 日中美日内瓦谈判后，对美出 ...

Market Overview - A-shares rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65% to 3,605 points, driven by the Hainan closure boosting related sectors[15] - European markets generally closed higher, with the Eurozone Stoxx 600 index up 0.24%, as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates[9] - U.S. stock performance was mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.70% to 44,693 points, while the S&P 500 slightly increased by 0.07%[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data showed resilience, with initial jobless claims declining for the sixth consecutive week, indicating a strong labor market[29] - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady marked a shift from previous rate cuts, reflecting confidence in the Eurozone's economic resilience despite global uncertainties[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices rose, with WTI crude increasing by 1.2% to $66.03 per barrel, supported by positive trade negotiations[26] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.2%, while gold prices fell, reflecting market adjustments following the ECB's announcements[24] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector saw gains, particularly in AI-related stocks, while the consumer discretionary sector lagged, with Tesla's stock dropping 8.20% due to disappointing earnings[9] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.51%, with significant gains in the healthcare and materials sectors, while large tech stocks faced declines[11] Investment Opportunities - The China-Europe summit highlighted potential investment opportunities in energy equipment and engineering machinery, as China seeks to enhance its exports to Europe[6] - The beverage sector in China is expected to perform well this summer due to high temperatures and increased travel, with recommendations for leading brands like Nongfu Spring[13]

Group 1: TVB Business Performance - TVB holds a 79% market share in Hong Kong's free television sector, generating a market capitalization of HKD 20 billion[1] - For FY24, TVB's revenue increased by 17% year-on-year to HKD 1.6 billion, accounting for 50% of total group revenue[1] - Advertising revenue rose by 14% year-on-year to HKD 1.46 billion, driven by returning major clients and new customer acquisition[1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The healthcare sector remains the largest source of advertising revenue, with Macau-related advertising becoming a new growth driver[1] - TVB's co-production and licensing revenue grew by 26% year-on-year to HKD 651 million, representing 20% of total revenue for FY24[2] - The company has seven co-productions in progress, including anticipated titles like "News Queen 2" and plans to adapt classic IP "The Smiling, Proud Wanderer"[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - TVB aims to achieve profitability in FY25, with a target EBITDA exceeding HKD 500 million, a 70% increase year-on-year[4] - Management is confident in maintaining growth due to strong advertising commitments and expanding operations in Guangdong Province[4] - The expected EV/EBITDA ratio for 2025 is projected at 7.6 times, indicating potential for future valuation growth[4]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the three major indices reaching new highs for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.62%[14] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.54%, marking a new high since February 2022[10] - European markets declined due to unclear progress in US-EU trade negotiations, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.53%[8] Economic Indicators - In 2025, pensions in mainland China will be raised by 2%, benefiting 147 million retirees, with an estimated increase in disposable income of 65 to 100 RMB per month, reaching 3,900 RMB[5] - The total expenditure on pensions in 2025 is projected to be 400 billion RMB, potentially driving an additional 200 billion RMB in consumption, significantly impacting GDP through multiplier effects[5] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices continued to decline, with NYMEX crude oil down 1.47% to $66.21 per barrel[27] - The US dollar weakened, contributing to a rise in gold prices, which increased by 1.09% to $3,443.7 per ounce[27] - The dollar index fell by 0.5%, marking a year-to-date decline of 10.2%[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over a week, with the 10-year yield at 4.34%, down 3.4 basis points[29] - Asian investment-grade bonds showed balanced trading, with a preference for mid-term bonds[29] Sector Performance - In the US, 9 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with healthcare leading gains at 1.90%[8] - The coal sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains, driven by regulatory actions on coal production, while cement stocks experienced mixed performance[10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Chow Tai Fook (6168 HK) is a leading jewelry brand in China's lower-tier markets, with a revenue growth forecast from RMB 3.1 billion in FY22 to RMB 5.7 billion in FY24, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 575 million to RMB 706 million during the same period, with a CAGR of 10.8% [1] - Chow Tai Fook ranks 6th in total merchandise transaction volume among all gold jewelry companies in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and ranks 10th in revenue with a market share of 1.0% [1] Group 2 - The online business has become a key growth driver, with online revenue expected to double from RMB 1.1 billion in FY22 to RMB 2.3 billion in FY24, achieving a CAGR of 46.1% [1] - By FY24, online sales are projected to account for 40% of total revenue, the highest among leading jewelry companies [1] - Chow Tai Fook has established flagship stores on major e-commerce platforms like JD.com and Tmall, while also expanding into emerging platforms such as Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou [1] Group 3 - The company operates 4,129 stores as of the end of 2024, with nearly 98% being franchise stores, allowing for rapid expansion at low costs [2] - Chow Tai Fook's franchise model grants franchisees significant operational autonomy, including direct procurement from authorized suppliers and the ability to tailor product offerings based on local market demands [2] - The service fee from franchisees is expected to account for 14.8% of total revenue in FY24, contributing 54% to gross profit [2] Group 4 - Chow Tai Fook's supply chain is efficient and stable, with an average partnership of 8 years with its top five suppliers, and has adopted an outsourcing production model since April 2022 to further optimize supply chain efficiency [2] - All products must undergo quality testing before sale, regardless of whether they are sourced directly from authorized suppliers or through company channels [2] Group 5 - Despite facing short-term operational pressures due to high gold prices and competition from low-priced products in the Shenzhen jewelry wholesale market, Chow Tai Fook is expected to maintain steady growth due to its strong e-commerce performance, brand appeal in lower-tier markets, and franchisees' understanding of local consumer preferences [4] - The stock is currently valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for FY24, which is considered reasonable compared to peers, given its superior growth potential [4]

Market Overview - Chinese markets surged following the announcement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with construction materials, power equipment, and engineering sectors seeing significant gains[3] - US stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 0.14% and 0.38% respectively, while the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.04%[8] - European markets showed mixed results as investors remained cautious regarding trade negotiations, with the Stoxx 600 and UK FTSE 100 experiencing minor fluctuations[8] Economic Policy Impact - The recently signed "Big and Beautiful Act" by Trump is expected to reduce government spending while significantly cutting taxes, potentially widening the deficit[5] - The act primarily benefits middle to high-income groups, which may limit its positive economic impact but could directly benefit the US stock market through increased cash flow for these demographics[5] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices saw a slight decline, with NY crude oil down 0.21% to $67.2 per barrel, while gold prices rose to a one-month high at $3,406.4 per ounce, increasing by 1.43%[25] - The US dollar index fell by 0.6%, reflecting a broader trend of declining US Treasury yields, while the Japanese yen experienced its largest single-day gain in two months following the recent elections[25] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields decreased, with the 2-year yield at 3.86% and the 10-year yield at 4.38%, indicating a flattening yield curve[26] - Asian bond markets remained relatively quiet due to a holiday in Japan, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads holding steady[4] Stock Performance Highlights - TSMC raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to 30%, driven by strong demand for advanced chips, particularly in the AI sector[7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, with significant gains in construction and materials stocks following the hydropower project announcement[10]

Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with current earnings reflecting a 10-15% impact from tariffs [8][15][10] - The European telecom sector shows potential for dividend growth, with an average expected increase of 4.3% over the next two years [22][19] - The Stoxx 600 index's earnings have been adjusted downwards by 3-4.5% due to tariff impacts, with a potential further decline of 2.5-5% under a 25% tariff scenario [16][18] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - Japan's inflation is projected to further slow to around 2.5%, with the Tokyo CPI showing a decrease from 3.6% to 3.1% [34][36] - The machine tool orders in Japan remained stable, with June orders reaching 133 billion yen, indicating a 3% month-on-month growth [33][31] - Companies like JR East and Fujitsu are highlighted for their growth opportunities, with JR East's target price set at 4,100 yen and Fujitsu at 4,200 yen [42][40] Group 3: Taiwan Market Focus - Taiwan's exports surged by 33.7% year-on-year in June, driven by strong demand for technology products, particularly computers and servers [52][49] - AI demand remains robust, but corporate earnings growth may slow, with potential risks to performance in the second half of the year [53][55] - Companies such as Jentech and Jiadeng Precision are positioned to benefit from strong ASIC demand and advanced process requirements, respectively [57][56]