Market Overview - US Congress passed the GENIUS Act, establishing the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to accelerate market expansion[5] - A-shares rose 0.5%, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,534 points, marking a new high for the year[15] - The Dow Jones fell 0.32% to 44,342 points, while the S&P 500 was nearly flat, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.05%[9] Currency and Commodity Trends - The dollar index decreased by 0.3%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 9.2%[25] - International oil prices fell slightly, with NY crude oil down 0.3% to $67.34 per barrel[26] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong, with forecasts suggesting a range of $3,200 to $3,600 per ounce for Q3 2025[26] Sector Performance - In the US, six out of eleven S&P sectors declined, with the energy sector leading the losses at 0.96%[9] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.33%, driven by gains in large tech and financial stocks[11] - The AI ASIC sector is projected to see significant growth, with Google's AI token inference volume increasing by 50 times year-on-year[8] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.87%, down 3.5 basis points[29] - Asian bond markets remained stable, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points across major investment-grade bonds[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the computer industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significance of Physical AI and World Models (WFM) as the next wave in AI, particularly in robotics, which will enhance reasoning and execution capabilities, enabling robots to understand the physical world [1][9]. - NVIDIA has launched two major platforms, Cosmos and Omniverse, aimed at accelerating the development of Physical AI systems and industrial digital twins, which are crucial for the evolution of the industry [3][11]. - The domestic Physical AI industry is forming, with companies like Suochen Technology leading in the CAE sector, leveraging extensive physical simulation data for industry applications [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The computer industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" with a projected relative return of 69% over the next 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [5]. Industry Trends - Physical AI aims to enable intelligent agents to understand and interact with the real world effectively, encapsulated in robots and autonomous vehicles [2][10]. - The World Model is a generative AI model that helps in understanding the dynamics of the real world, utilizing various data inputs to predict spatial relationships and movements [2][10]. Key Developments - NVIDIA's Cosmos platform facilitates efficient data processing and management for Physical AI systems, while the Omniverse platform integrates various technologies for industrial applications [3][11]. - The report highlights the advantages of domestic CAE companies like Suochen Technology, which utilize generative Physical AI technology for real-world applications [3][12]. Market Performance - The computer industry index increased by 2.32% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.63 percentage points, driven by the active AI-related themes [13][14]. - AI-related companies within the computer sector have shown strong performance, with significant gains in stocks like Suochen Technology [17][18].

Market Overview - A-shares rose on Thursday, with Nvidia-related stocks continuing strong performance; Hong Kong stocks showed mixed results with major indices fluctuating[3] - US retail sales in June exceeded expectations, contributing to a record high for the S&P 500 index[4] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% following strong retail sales data, while international gold prices fell by 0.4%[4] - International oil prices rose over 1% due to signs of tightening supply and increased US demand[4] Fixed Income Insights - US employment and consumer data remained robust, leading to stable movements in US Treasury bonds, with Asian bond markets showing a narrowing of spreads by 1-3 basis points[5] H-Shares Revaluation - The AH premium index has been declining since 2025, indicating a shift in mainland policies and a low-interest environment affecting H-shares[6] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have significantly increased since the "9.24" market, with a 50% share of holdings in the H-index from southbound and mainland investors[6] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors with significant industry trends and high earnings visibility, particularly in AI software, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and banking[6] Key Economic Indicators - US retail sales rebounded with a 0.6% month-on-month increase, and initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since mid-April[10] - The Federal Reserve is considering a 25 basis point rate cut, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the timing of such a move[31] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index showed slight declines of 0.08% and 0.56%, respectively, while the healthcare sector led gains with a 4.5% increase[12] - A-shares experienced a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.43%[16] Lithium Industry Outlook - A production halt in Qinghai's lithium salt lake due to regulatory compliance issues may lead to a tightening supply, potentially pushing lithium prices out of the bottom range[19] Global Market Indices - European markets rebounded with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.62%, driven by optimism surrounding trade negotiations and positive corporate earnings[10] - The S&P Mexico IPC index increased by 0.38%, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors[10]

Market Overview - Chinese markets opened high but closed lower, with financial stocks dragging down the index while pharmaceutical stocks remained strong[3] - European markets were subdued due to tariff concerns and rumors regarding Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, leading to a decline in major indices[3] - U.S. markets experienced volatility due to the same rumors, but recovered after Trump denied plans to fire Powell, bringing indices close to historical highs[3] Commodity and Forex - Following Trump's denial, international gold prices retracted some gains, with New York futures closing up 0.67% at $3,359.1 per ounce[26] - Oil prices fell slightly, with New York crude down 0.21% to $66.38 per barrel, influenced by inventory data[26] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 98.39, while the euro appreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching 1.164[25] Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply due to rumors about Powell's job security, with the 10-year yield at 4.46% after a drop of 2.6 basis points[29] - Asian bond markets showed resilience, with investment-grade bond spreads narrowing by 1-4 basis points[29] Key Economic Indicators - U.S. June PPI remained unchanged, below the expected increase of 0.2%, alleviating inflation concerns[8] - The European Commission proposed a nearly €2 trillion budget for 2028-2034, indicating significant fiscal planning ahead[5] Sector Performance - In the U.S., healthcare stocks led gains with an increase of 1.22%, driven by strong earnings from Johnson & Johnson, which saw a 6.19% rise in stock price[8] - In the A-share market, healthcare and non-daily consumer goods sectors both rose by 0.6%, while financials fell by 0.4%[16] Notable Stocks - Goldman Sachs reported a 22% year-on-year increase in Q2 net profit to $3.72 billion, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by a 36% rise in stock trading revenue[7] - The largest IPO in A-share this year, Huadian New Energy, surged 125.79% on its debut, reaching a market cap of approximately ¥300 billion[16]

Market Overview - The trend of "de-dollarization" is strengthening, leading to a preference for non-USD assets, with Asian equities being steadily revalued[6] - The A-share market is heating up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3,519 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively[17] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.26% and 0.52% respectively, although market sentiment remains cautious[11] Commodity and Forex Insights - International oil prices fell by 2%, with NYMEX crude down 2.15% to $66.98 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.63% to $69.21 per barrel[28] - The US dollar index slightly increased by 0.2%, while gold prices experienced a minor decline[28] - The Chinese yuan appreciated by 1.8% year-to-date against the US dollar, closing at 7.172[27] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 30-year yield approaching 5%[5] - Asian bond markets showed cautious sentiment initially but improved later, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points[31] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, reflecting market concerns ahead of upcoming elections[31] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as energy and utilities saw gains of 1.5% and 0.8% respectively, while real estate declined by 0.9%[17] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong rose by 2.4%, while the financial sector remained flat[12] Key Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is set to be released, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rates[5] - China's foreign currency deposits exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in over three years, indicating a strong capital inflow[6]

Group 1: China Market Focus - The current "anti-involution" policies may adopt different approaches across various industries, with a focus on supply-side reforms and market mechanisms to encourage balance in supply and demand [10][12][19] - Overseas investors are showing high interest in the Chinese market, with notable attention on companies like Kehua Data and SMIC, although actual capital inflow may take time to materialize [13][15][20] - The upcoming third quarter is expected to see a resurgence in IPOs for technology companies, with AI and military sectors identified as key areas for structural investment opportunities [18][19] Group 2: US Market Focus - Core commodity prices are anticipated to reflect tariff impacts more significantly starting mid-year, with a focus on the performance of leading technology stocks like Nvidia and Meta Platforms [26][32][40] - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish stance will depend on economic data fluctuations, particularly in light of inflationary pressures and economic slowdown [28][29][36] - The earnings outlook for US stocks is showing signs of divergence, with technology and telecommunications sectors expected to remain strong despite broader economic challenges [37][40] Group 3: Korea Market Focus - New tariffs are expected to disrupt the economy, with significant implications for capital market reforms initiated by changes in commercial law [44][46] - Consumer confidence is improving, which may support the domestic economy, while export levels have remained robust due to preemptive export activities earlier in the year [46]

Market Overview - US inflation is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to tariff impacts, with Chinese exporters currently bearing about 12% of the tariff burden[5] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, closing at 6,280.5 points, up 0.3%[3][8] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,650.6 points, up 0.4%[7][8] Stock Market Performance - A-shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 0.48% to 3,509 points, marking a new yearly high[15] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.57%, supported by strong financial stocks, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.29%[10] - In the US, 9 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with the non-core consumer goods sector leading with a 0.98% increase[8] Commodity and Forex Trends - International oil prices fell over 2%, with NYMEX crude down 2.65% to $66.57 per barrel[4][26] - The US dollar remained stable, with the dollar index at 97.65, reflecting a 0.1% increase[25] - The gold price increased by 0.1% to $3,325.7 per ounce, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 0.3%[25] Fixed Income Insights - US Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year yield at 4.87%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 basis points[29] - The demand for 30-year Treasury bonds was strong, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.38, indicating healthy investor interest[29] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two-month low, which alleviated some recession concerns[4][29] - The Federal Reserve is considering reducing its balance sheet to approximately $5.8 trillion, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy[5]

Market Performance - A-shares showed poor performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,473 points, up 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.21%[15] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly declined by 0.12% and 0.01% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25%[11] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 422 points or 0.94%, closing at 44,406 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.79% and 0.92% respectively[9] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods, and a 30% tariff on South African products, contributing to market uncertainty and declines in U.S. stocks[9] - The deadline for new tariffs has been extended to August 1, which has led to cautious trading in European markets, with the DAX rising by 1.20% and the FTSE 100 declining by 0.13%[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1% following Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in major crude oil prices, with NYMEX crude up 1.39% to $67.93 per barrel[25] - The gold price initially fell but stabilized later, while industrial metals in London faced declines due to tariff risks[25] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. long-term treasury bonds led the decline, with the yield curve steepening; the 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.38% and the 30-year yield to 4.92%[29] - Asian bond markets experienced mixed trading, with a slight bias towards selling, and spreads widening by 1-2 basis points[29] Key Corporate News - Tesla's stock fell by 6.8% after CEO Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party, raising investor concerns about potential impacts on the company's brand image[9] - Goldin Financial Holdings reported a significant increase in revenue, with a 20.57% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by expansion in overseas markets[18]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.32% at 3,472 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.36% respectively[16] - Hong Kong stocks declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.64% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.33%, closing below 24,000 points[12] - European markets weakened, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.72%, amid concerns over US tariff negotiations[10] Economic Policies and Impacts - The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by Trump is expected to increase US debt pressure, leading to a rise in long-term US Treasury yields[7] - The Act negatively impacts US stock performance in healthcare and renewable energy sectors, while benefiting technology and manufacturing industries[7] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations, leading to a drop in oil prices by over 1%[26] Trade and Tariff Developments - The suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" ends on July 9, with Trump planning to send tariff letters to 12 countries, potentially increasing inflation concerns in the US[10] - The US plans to impose new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% starting August 1, raising fears of economic repercussions[30] - Trade agreements are being pursued with various countries, including a temporary trade deal with India and a potential agreement with Switzerland regarding drug tariffs[7] Sector Performance - In the US stock market, technology giants and AI sectors are expected to benefit from the new legislation, while traditional energy sectors may see a revival[7] - In the A-share market, banking stocks supported the index, with CITIC Bank rising over 3.7%[16] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong saw a 1.5% increase, while materials and financial sectors faced declines[12]

Global Market Dynamics - The US stock market showed strong performance with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data [3][10] - European markets also rose, with the UK leading gains amid reduced political uncertainty [10] - The A-share market in China saw an increase, particularly in sectors related to Apple and innovative pharmaceuticals [17] Trade and Economic Agreements - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods subject to "transshipment" from China, complicating China's trade through Vietnam [6] - The agreement emphasizes the importance of origin certification, which may impact China's ability to utilize Vietnam for trade [6] - The report suggests that Chinese companies may accelerate overseas expansion, creating a new cycle of local production and consumption [6] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US added 256,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [9][10] - However, the report indicates underlying weaknesses in the job market, with a significant number of discouraged workers not counted in the labor force [9] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September due to ongoing economic concerns [9] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology stocks faced declines, while healthcare and materials sectors showed strength [12][13] - Macau's gaming industry is projected to recover, with a forecasted GGR growth of 7.6% in 2025, driven by increased market share for major operators [15] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the submarine cable sector, driven by AI and increased demand for deep-sea technology [20] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose following strong non-farm payroll data, with the yield curve flattening as the market adjusts to reduced rate cut expectations [29][32] - The report notes a significant increase in the US national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, alleviating immediate default risks [32] - Asian investment-grade bonds remained stable, with slight narrowing of spreads observed [32]