Market Overview - US July CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, core CPI increased by 0.3%, with overall CPI year-on-year growth steady at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%[6] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 95%[9] - A-shares hit a new high for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.50% to 3,665 points, and total trading volume reaching 1.91 trillion yuan[16] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4% to 98.10, reflecting increased expectations for Fed rate cuts[28] - Oil prices declined, with NYMEX crude down 1.24% to $63.17 per barrel, amid OPEC's upward revision of global oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day[28] - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, closing down 0.1% at $3,348.9 per ounce[28] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 3.73% and the 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points to 4.29%[31] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads narrowed by 0-2 basis points, indicating increased buying interest[31] Stock Market Performance - Major US indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.1% to 44,458.6 points and the Nasdaq rising 1.4% to 21,681.9 points[8] - European markets displayed mixed results, with the DAX down 0.2% while the CAC 40 rose 0.7%[9] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.25%, closing just above the 25,000-point mark[11] Sector Insights - In the US, the telecommunications sector led gains, rising 1.79%, while the materials sector saw a 1.86% increase in Latin America[9] - In Hong Kong, the technology sector gained 1.7%, while healthcare stocks fell by 1.0%[11] - Shopify reported strong Q2 results, with European GMV growth accelerating by 49% year-on-year, indicating robust performance in the e-commerce sector[8]

Market Overview - A-shares showed strong performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.34% to 3,647 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.46%[18] - U.S. stocks retreated ahead of the inflation data release, with the Dow Jones down 0.45% to 43,975 points, and the S&P 500 declining 0.25% to 6,373 points[11] - European markets exhibited mixed results, with the Stoxx 600 index closing flat, while the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.23%[11] Commodity and Currency Insights - International gold prices fell over 2% after Trump confirmed no tariffs on imported gold, with New York gold futures down 2.5% to $3,353 per ounce[30] - Oil prices remained near two-month lows, reflecting market focus on the potential outcomes of U.S.-Russia talks regarding Ukraine[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.3% to 98.52, while the euro appreciated by 12.2% year-to-date against the dollar[29] Economic Indicators and Predictions - The upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with current expectations of a 58 basis point rate cut priced in for the year[33] - The global AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) is projected to grow by 64% in 2025 and 50% in 2026, driven by increased demand for computing power and favorable tax reforms[9] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors declined, with the energy sector leading the losses at 0.79%[11] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19%, while the technology sector showed mixed results, with Meituan declining and Alibaba gaining nearly 2%[13] Notable Corporate Developments - Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of their AI chip sales revenue to the U.S. government to obtain export licenses, impacting their stock prices slightly downwards[11] - The Indian economy may face a potential $32 billion drop in annual exports if a 50% tariff becomes the norm, affecting various manufacturing sectors[26]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls has raised concerns about the health of the US job market, indicating a cooling trend in employment and a weakening economy, though not yet at recession levels [11][15][19] - Major technology stocks remain the most reliable investments, with Dell Technologies and Tianhong Technology highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the AI sector [20][24] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data is critical, as a three-month average of new jobs below 100,000 could lead to a high probability of a rate cut in September [19][23] Group 2: South Korean Market Focus - The Bank of Korea may pause interest rate cuts despite meeting inflation targets, as the overall inflation rate slightly decreased to 2.1% in July, aligning with market expectations [31][35] - A disappointing preliminary tax reform proposal has created pressure on the stock market, with concerns over increased taxes on dividends and corporate income [36][38] - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from US-Korea agreements and increased demand for naval vessels, with Hyundai Heavy Industries identified as a key player in this sector [41][43] Group 3: Australian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of Australia is predicted to cut interest rates twice more this year, with retail sales showing a strong recovery, growing by 1.2% in June [50][53] - Overall inflation in Australia remains moderate, with the June inflation rate at 1.9%, suggesting limited pressure on monetary policy [56] - There is optimism in sectors such as materials, technology, and healthcare, with specific companies like Northern Star and Xero being highlighted for their growth potential [57]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% to 3,639 points, reaching a new high for the year[16] - Hong Kong stocks collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.69% to return to 25,000 points[11] - European markets displayed mixed results, with the UK experiencing a decline due to the Bank of England's fifth rate cut within a year[9] Economic Indicators - China's July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 5.8%[6] - July imports grew by 4.1%, significantly above the expected 0.3%[6] - The trade surplus for July was $98.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9%[6] Sector Performance - In the US, technology stocks continued to rise despite poor employment data, while healthcare stocks faced declines due to concerns over drug tariffs[9] - In Hong Kong, gaming stocks surged following strong July revenue from Macau, while pharmaceutical stocks fell due to tariff worries[11] - The UK stock market faced pressure from the Bank of England's rate cut, with the FTSE 100 down 0.7%[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - International gold prices rose following the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board[4] - Oil prices continued to decline amid geopolitical developments, with traders moving towards Eastern European currencies[4] - The British pound led G-10 currencies after the Bank of England's hawkish rate cut[4] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose due to weak demand for the 30-year bond auction, with the yield at 4.813%[31] - The market is focused on changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with potential implications for interest rates[31] - Asian bond markets showed limited direction, with spreads fluctuating within 2 basis points[5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a three-day rally, with military stocks leading the market; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45%[17] - The Hang Seng Index fluctuated narrowly, closing up 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.2%[12] - European markets mostly rose due to strong corporate earnings, but concerns over potential tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals limited gains, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.06%[10] Economic Outlook - The domestic real estate market is cooling, but the decline in housing prices is not accelerating significantly; investment in real estate is expected to stabilize[6] - The macroeconomic environment shows limited potential risks in the medium to long term, with a possibility of continued bottom recovery if housing prices do not decline further[6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.6%, continuing a downward trend, while the euro gained against G-10 currencies[29] - International oil prices dropped over 1%, with WTI crude oil at $64.35 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical concerns[29] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year yield at 4.23%, amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials[32] - The auction of $42 billion in 10-year Treasuries showed weak demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35, down from 2.61 in the previous auction[32] Stock Performance Highlights - Equinix (EQIX US) reported better-than-expected earnings, raising its full-year guidance, driven by AI and high-performance computing demand[9] - Apple (AAPL US) announced a commitment to reinvest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing, leading to a stock price increase of over 5%[10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A balanced allocation between equities and bonds is recommended to manage risk and enhance flexibility; a focus on a barbell strategy in equities is suggested[6] - In the bond market, opportunities for slight interest rate declines under loose liquidity conditions should be monitored[6]

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a weakening labor market[6] - The downward revision of previous months' data totaled nearly 260,000, raising concerns about the quality of non-farm data[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling 1.23% to 43,588.6, the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.0, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.24% to 20,650.1[11] - European markets also faced significant losses, with the Stoxx 600 index plunging 1.89% amid fears of a global economic slowdown due to new tariffs announced by President Trump[11] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 99.14, while international gold prices rose over 1%[4] - International oil prices dropped sharply, with WTI crude oil down 2.8% to $67.33 per barrel, reflecting concerns over demand growth[31] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant decline, with the 2-year yield dropping 27.5 basis points to 3.68%, as market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged to 90%[34] - Asian bond markets showed weakness, with spreads widening by 1-3 basis points, particularly in the Chinese bond market[34] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors declined, with the consumer discretionary sector leading the losses, down 3.59%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.07%, marking its fourth consecutive decline, with technology stocks underperforming[13]

Group 1: China Market Focus - Extreme weather has led to a decline in manufacturing sentiment, with the manufacturing PMI for July at 49.3, down 0.4 points from the previous month and 0.7 points below the five-year average [13][12] - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for macro policies to "continue to exert force and increase strength" to address structural economic issues [12] - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to high temperatures and heavy rainfall, affecting production and demand, while price indices have shown a significant rebound due to anti-involution effects [13][12] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Covos (603486 CH) is focusing on expanding its robotics core components and manufacturing project, with an expected annual output of 20 million key components and a projected revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan [21] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986 CH) is positioned well in the AI era with its customized storage solutions, benefiting from trends in high bandwidth and low power consumption, and is expected to gain market share in the DRAM sector [21] Group 3: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is showing signs of risk, with GDP growth in April and May falling short of expectations, and a potential for two more interest rate cuts this year [31][29] - The UK stock market is facing structural challenges, with high international exposure and a strong pound affecting corporate earnings, while sectors like defense and utilities may perform better [32][31] Group 4: India Market Focus - India's economic growth is projected to slightly decline from 6.5% to 6.2% in the fiscal year 2026, with risks stemming from a slowdown in rural recovery and industrial activity [46] - The Indian government has approved significant defense contracts, with Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) expected to benefit from a substantial order backlog, indicating strong growth potential in the defense sector [51][46]

Market Overview - Chinese market experienced a significant decline, with major indices dropping over 1%, while AI stocks remained the only bright spot[3] - European markets showed weakness as investors digested a large volume of corporate earnings reports, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.75%[11] - U.S. stock market faced resistance, with the S&P 500 retracting 1% from earlier gains, despite strong performances from large tech stocks like Meta and Microsoft[11] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[6] - Non-manufacturing PMI also declined to 50.1, down 0.4 points, reflecting a slowdown in the service sector[6] - U.S. core PCE inflation rose to 2.79% year-on-year, slightly above expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[32] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices fell by 1%, with WTI crude at $69.26 per barrel and Brent crude at $72.53 per barrel[29] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.2%, while gold prices experienced a minor decline[29] - The Japanese yen led declines among G-10 currencies after the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates[29] Corporate Earnings Highlights - Apple reported a 10% increase in Q3 revenue to $94 billion, driven by strong iPhone sales, which totaled $44.6 billion, up 13% year-on-year[9] - Amazon's Q2 net profit rose 34.8% to $18.2 billion, but its Q3 operating profit forecast fell short of market expectations, leading to a post-earnings stock drop of over 6%[9] - Vale's Q2 revenue was $8.8 billion, down 11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 6% to $2.12 billion, aided by strong copper and nickel performance[9] Investment Insights - The U.S. Treasury yield curve remained stable, with the 10-year yield at 4.37%, as investors awaited upcoming non-farm payroll data[32] - China's investment-grade bond spreads narrowed by 1-2 basis points, indicating a mixed performance in the Asian bond market[32] - The recent U.S. copper tariffs are expected to benefit domestic copper processing companies, with recommendations for investments in related sectors[16]

Group 1: Company Performance - New Oriental Education reported FY25 revenue of $4.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%[1] - Net profit for FY25 was $372 million, up 20% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching $432 million, exceeding expectations by 5%[1] - Adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 8.8%, primarily due to economies of scale[1] Group 2: Business Segments - Q4 FY25 education service revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to $1.1 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of 10%-13%[2] - The growth rate of education services has slowed compared to earlier quarters, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 FY25 showing increases of 33.5%, 31.3%, and 21.2% respectively[2] - New business in education grew by 32.5% year-on-year, while overseas exam training and study abroad consulting increased by 14.6% and 8.2% respectively[2] Group 3: Future Guidance - Management expects Q1 FY26 total net revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5%[2] - FY26 total net revenue is projected to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10%, slightly below market expectations of 8%-12%[2] - A new three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return at least 50% of profits to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks[2] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Concerns arise regarding the growth outlook due to the conservative FY26 guidance, which may affect investor sentiment[4] - The departure of key anchor host Dong Yuhui has negatively impacted the revenue of the Oriental Selection segment, which saw a 39% year-on-year decline in FY25[4] - The current expected P/E ratio for FY26 is 13.52 times[4]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% at 3,615 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%[17] - The Hang Seng Index declined 1.36% to 25,176 points, marking a five-day losing streak, with significant drops in major tech stocks[13] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 44,461 points and the S&P 500 down 0.12% at 6,362 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.15% to 21,129 points[11] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, significantly improving from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with a shift in focus towards the perception of tariff-induced inflation as a one-time event, impacting future rate cut expectations[7] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, with WTI crude oil reaching $70.0 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and sanctions[28] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% to 99.82, marking a two-month high, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3,295.8 per ounce[28] - Copper prices plummeted by 18% after the U.S. excluded refined copper from new tariffs, leading to significant market volatility[5] Corporate Earnings Highlights - Microsoft reported Q4 earnings exceeding expectations, with net profit of $27.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, driven by strong growth in cloud and AI services[9] - Meta's Q2 net profit rose 36% to $18.337 billion, with revenue growth of 22% to $47.52 billion, surpassing market forecasts[9] Bond Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 4-7 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 3.94% and the 10-year yield at 4.37% following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady[6] - Asian bond markets showed mixed performance, with Chinese investment-grade bonds remaining stable amid varying yield spreads[31]