Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Specialised Carriers reported a revenue of 5.196 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.47%, with a net profit of 345 million yuan, up 1.56% [2][12] - HNA Holding achieved a revenue of 65.236 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.25% increase, while Guangzhou Baiyun Airport's net profit doubled [2][14] - YTO Express reported a business volume growth of 25.32% in 2024, with a total logistics value of 91 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 5.7% year-on-year increase [2][18] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - COSCO Shipping Specialised Carriers maintained steady growth despite global shipping market volatility, with a Q1 revenue of 5.196 billion yuan, a 51.47% increase year-on-year [12] - HNA Holding's 2024 revenue reached 65.236 billion yuan, an 11.25% increase, while Guangzhou Baiyun Airport's net profit surged by 109.51% [14][16] - YTO Express's business volume grew by 25.32% in 2024, with a logistics total of 91 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, up 5.7% year-on-year [18][19] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In April 2025, domestic air cargo flights decreased by 1.67% year-on-year, while international flights increased by 25.08% [33] - The SCFI index for container shipping reported a decrease of 1.66% week-on-week, while the PDCI index for domestic shipping increased by 0.67% [40] - In March 2025, express delivery volume rose by 20.30% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 124.6 billion yuan [51] 3. Company Performance - COSCO Shipping Specialised Carriers added 13 new vessels in Q1 2025, increasing total capacity to 691.5 thousand deadweight tons, a 12.53% increase from the end of 2024 [13] - HNA Holding's passenger transport volume exceeded 68 million in 2024, a 14.36% increase, with international passenger transport volume growing by 132.68% [15] - YTO Express's capital expenditure exceeded 6.7 billion yuan in 2024, focusing on automation upgrades and expanding its logistics network [19]

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on various sectors including logistics, healthcare, technology, and machinery, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their recent performance and future potential [1][2][3] Macroeconomic Overview - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing sentiment, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, signaling a contraction in the sector [6][7] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have seen a notable drop in overseas demand, while the construction industry remains active [6][7] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points, with export orders dropping significantly to 44.7%, the lowest since January 2023 [6][7] Healthcare Sector - JianKai Technology reported a revenue of 227 million yuan for 2024, a decline of 22.26%, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 74.22% [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, but the net profit decreased by 17.79% [9][10] - The company is advancing its innovative drug PEG-irinotecan into Phase III clinical trials, with other indications in Phase II, indicating potential future growth [11][12] Technology Sector - Boshi Software reported a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan for 2024, a growth of 4.79%, but a net profit decline of 7.44% [14][15] - The company is focusing on AI and electronic voucher businesses, expanding application scenarios to enhance revenue streams [16][17] - In Q1 2025, the company faced a revenue decline of 1.17%, with a net loss of 63 million yuan, indicating challenges in profitability [15][18] Machinery Sector - Bozhong Precision reported a revenue of 4.95 billion yuan for 2024, a growth of 2.36%, with a net profit of 398 million yuan, up 2.05% [19][20] - The company is expanding into new fields such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and robotics, which are expected to drive future growth [22][23] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 0.80%, with a net loss of 31 million yuan, attributed to upfront costs and equipment not yet accepted [21][23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 22.28 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic phosphate fertilizer industry, possessing significant upstream resources in phosphate rock and coal, which provides a clear integrated advantage. Continuous reforms have optimized operating expenses, and long-term profitability is expected to remain at a high level, with dividends anticipated to be sustained at elevated levels. This is the first coverage of the company, leading to the "Buy" rating [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 5.55 billion, RMB 5.76 billion, and RMB 5.83 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.02, RMB 3.14, and RMB 3.18, leading to PE ratios of 7.4x, 7.1x, and 7.0x respectively [5]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue decline of 10.89% to RMB 61.54 billion, while net profit is projected to increase by 17.93% to RMB 5.33 billion. The dividend payout ratio is expected to be 47.86% in 2024 [7][8]. Business Overview - The company has a phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year and coal mining capacity of 4 million tons per year, with a total fertilizer production capacity of 10 million tons per year. The company holds a leading market share in phosphate rock reserves and production [8][30]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from its fertilizer and logistics businesses, with fertilizer contributing significantly to gross profit. In 2024, fertilizer and logistics revenues are expected to be RMB 26.99 billion and RMB 25.58 billion, respectively [32][36]. Market Position and Industry Outlook - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in phosphate fertilizers, with a market share of approximately 19.16% in P2O5 production. The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by robust demand from the agricultural sector and increasing consumption in new energy applications [8][12][54]. - The report highlights that the domestic phosphate rock market is experiencing a slight decrease in effective production capacity, while demand is expected to grow due to the development of new energy sectors [54][55]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a planned cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% of the distributable net profit for the years 2024 to 2026. The cash dividends for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were RMB 1.83 billion, RMB 1.82 billion, and RMB 2.55 billion, respectively [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has shown consistent growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 12.70% in 2024 and a net profit growth of 5.10% [6][7] - The household photovoltaic segment continues to grow, enhancing the brand's international influence [3][6] - The company is expanding its global market presence, achieving significant revenue growth in overseas markets [6][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 67.23 billion, with a growth rate of 4.2% [5][12] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 2.15, reflecting a decrease of 10.8% from previous estimates [5][12] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to reach RMB 11.15 billion in 2025, with a corresponding EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.5 [5][12] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 4.63 billion, representing a growth rate of 19.4% [5][12] Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at RMB 22.27, with a market capitalization of RMB 47.86 billion [1][3] - The stock has shown a relative performance of 2.2% over the past 12 months compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][3] Business Segments - The low-voltage electrical segment has shown stable growth, with a revenue increase of 3.89% in 2024 [6][7] - The household photovoltaic business achieved a revenue of RMB 30.84 billion in 2024, growing by 12.96% [6][7] - The company has established a strong foothold in the North American market, leading in commercial photovoltaic inverter shipments [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company has experienced significant revenue growth in 2024, with a reported revenue of RMB 46.38 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.62%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 17.21% to RMB 5.01 billion [8] - The company's strategic upgrade to "1+2+X" focuses on core smartphone business, personal computing, and automotive electronics as new growth areas, which are expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: RMB 27.19 billion - 2024: RMB 46.38 billion - 2025E: RMB 47.32 billion - 2026E: RMB 54.90 billion - 2027E: RMB 63.22 billion - The growth rates for these years are projected at (7.4)%, 70.6%, 2.0%, 16.0%, and 15.1% respectively [7] - The EBITDA figures are projected to be: - 2023: RMB 748 million - 2024: RMB 433 million - 2025E: RMB 874 million - 2026E: RMB 1.25 billion - 2027E: RMB 1.43 billion [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be: - 2023: RMB 605 million - 2024: RMB 501 million - 2025E: RMB 520 million - 2026E: RMB 819 million - 2027E: RMB 980 million [7] Business Performance - The company’s smartphone business generated RMB 36.13 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 65.58%, while the revenue from the AIoT business surged by 121.99% to RMB 5.57 billion [8] - The gross margin for the AIoT business was reported at 11.28%, despite a year-on-year decline of 9.80 percentage points [8] - The company aims to enhance its product matrix and customer base in the tablet and AIoT sectors, with a focus on high-end products and technology integration [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue and profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of RMB 579 million, down 14.42% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 41.77 million, down 68.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 171.12% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery [3][8] - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating, anticipating growth driven by the recovery of B&G market demand and the expansion of C-end business [5][8] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 579 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -14.4%. The EBITDA was RMB 28 million, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 42 million, reflecting a significant decline [7][11] - The forecast for 2025 estimates revenue to be RMB 577 million, with a slight decrease of 0.3%, and a net profit of RMB 141 million, representing a growth of 237.2% compared to 2024 [7][11] - The company has a projected EPS of RMB 0.74 for 2025, with a P/E ratio of 34.3 times [5][11] Order Backlog and Market Position - As of the end of 2024, the company had an order backlog of approximately RMB 368 million, which has decreased from RMB 550 million at the end of 2023. This backlog includes RMB 87.88 million from large cultural performance projects and RMB 280 million from cultural tourism performance projects [8][11] - The company has demonstrated its competitive advantage in large event creative planning, successfully completing significant projects in 2024, and is focusing on expanding its C-end business to enhance overall business stability [8][11]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In April 2025, the Manufacturing PMI index dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index significantly declined by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level since January 2023[2][6] - The production index decreased to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, and the purchasing index fell to 46.3%, a drop of 5.5 percentage points, marking the lowest level since January 2023[2][7] Price and Demand Trends - The manufacturing price index continued to decline, with major raw material purchase prices and factory prices dropping by 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively[3][10] - The decline in factory prices was more pronounced than that of raw material purchase prices, suggesting a stronger impact of demand on manufacturing market prices[3][10] - In specific sectors, the export orders index for electrical machinery, general equipment, and specialized equipment saw declines exceeding 10%[3][10] Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized increasing investment to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on major strategic projects expected to receive enhanced funding support[4][11] - The real estate investment sector is anticipated to stabilize gradually, supported by increased supply of high-quality housing[4][11] - The non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but remained in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 44.9%, down 1.7 percentage points[5][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [2][4][6] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in 2024, achieving a revenue of RMB 4.954 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 398 million, up 2.05% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in revenue to RMB 737 million, down 0.80% year-on-year, and a net loss of RMB 31 million, a significant drop of 45.59% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is recognized as a leading domestic player in the 3C automation equipment sector, with growth potential driven by expansion into new fields such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and robotics [4][6][9] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 49.54 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.98 billion, with a gross margin of 34.38% and a net margin of 7.85% [9][10] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of RMB 7.37 billion, with a gross margin of 31.90% and a net margin of -4.81% [11] - The company expects revenues of RMB 59.69 billion, RMB 70.02 billion, and RMB 81.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 5.27 billion, RMB 6.63 billion, and RMB 8.13 billion [6][8] Growth Drivers - The company is actively expanding into new sectors, including electric vehicle battery manufacturing, smart charging stations, and semiconductor equipment, which are expected to provide new growth momentum [9][10] - Strategic partnerships in the renewable energy sector, such as collaborations for battery swapping stations, are anticipated to enhance the company's market position [9]

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 6 日 投资建议 海外天然气、 TDI 价格上涨，国际油价、醋酸价 格下跌 五月份，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，建议整体均衡配置，关注 自主可控日益关键的电子材料公司，以及分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。 行业动态 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250427》20250427 《化工行业周报 20250420》20250421 《化工行业周报 20250413》20250413 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250505 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 本周（04.28-05.04）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 22 个品种价格上涨，47 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, 博思软件, reported a revenue of 2.142 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.79%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.44% to 302 million RMB. The company is focusing on two main business lines: AI and electronic vouchers, which are expected to drive sustainable revenue growth [3][5][8]. - The company has established an AI research and development center and is actively developing vertical scenario strategies using "industry-specific large models + intelligent agents" to enhance its business ecosystem [8]. - The electronic voucher products have been implemented in various regions, serving over 6,000 budget units and enterprises, indicating a strong market presence and application [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 65.83%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 14.11%, down by 1.87 percentage points [8]. - The company expects revenues of 2.524 billion RMB, 2.890 billion RMB, and 3.211 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 434 million RMB, 530 million RMB, and 620 million RMB for the same years [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.57 RMB, 0.70 RMB, and 0.82 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26.3, 21.5, and 18.4 [5][7]. Business Performance - The company’s digital ticketing business generated 886 million RMB in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.30%. The smart finance and digital procurement sectors also saw revenue growth, with 710 million RMB and 462 million RMB respectively [8]. - The company has been enhancing its cash flow management, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 350 million RMB in 2024, an increase of 6.37% year-on-year [8].