Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the rise in international oil prices and the increase in prices of disperse dyes and vitamin E, suggesting a focus on undervalued industry leaders and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [2][11] - It emphasizes the importance of strong downstream demand and the growing significance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][11] Industry Dynamics - In the week of January 25 to February 1, 2026, among 100 tracked chemical products, 50 saw price increases, 22 saw declines, and 28 remained stable. Overall, 61% of products had month-on-month price increases, while 30% saw declines [11][36] - The average price of WTI crude oil rose to $65.21 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 6.78%, while Brent crude oil reached $70.69 per barrel, up 7.30% [11][37] - The report notes that the average price of disperse black ECT300% increased by 5.56% to 19 yuan/kg, and the average price of vitamin E rose by 1.9% to 53.5 yuan/kg [38][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the effects of "anti-involution" on supply in relevant sub-industries, and companies in electronic materials benefiting from strong downstream demand [11][14] - Long-term investment themes include traditional chemical leaders showing resilience, sectors benefiting from "anti-involution," and companies in new materials with significant growth potential [11][14] - Specific stock recommendations include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and Zhejiang Longsheng among others [11][14]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing significant internal differentiation, with a shift towards sector rotation but not yet reaching a major transition point [1][3] - The report highlights that the recent volatility in the overseas markets has led to a tightening of liquidity expectations, prompting a reassessment of asset prices globally [3][11] - The long-term revaluation logic for the non-ferrous metals sector remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, driven by ongoing demand from AI data centers and energy transitions [12][22] Sector Rotation and Market Dynamics - The report notes that the current market resembles the conditions of July 2014 rather than November 2014, suggesting that while low-weight stocks are beginning to yield absolute returns, the influx of new capital is not as robust as in previous cycles [11][24][26] - The report emphasizes that the recent acceleration in sector rotation is not indicative of a major style switch, as the underlying conditions differ significantly from those seen during previous market peaks [24][26] - The communication sector has seen significant capital inflows, while sectors like power equipment and electronics have experienced notable outflows, indicating a shift in investor preferences [34][35] Investment Opportunities in AI and Technology - The report discusses the emergence of the AI assistant Moltbot, which is gaining traction in the market and is expected to catalyze investment opportunities across the AI agent industry chain, including cloud services and computing power [28][30] - The integration of Moltbot with major AI models suggests a shift in value from the models themselves to the frameworks and applications that utilize them, indicating a potential growth area for investors [29][30] - The report highlights the regulatory changes aimed at institutionalizing long-term capital in the A-share market, which could enhance corporate governance and attract strategic investors [39]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The logistics sector is experiencing significant growth, with Jiushi Intelligent achieving a hundredfold increase from 200 to 20,000 autonomous delivery vehicles over three years, in collaboration with Cainiao [3][15] - Global air freight demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines projected to return to profitability [3][16] - The low-altitude economy is advancing from concept to reality, with eVTOL vertical take-off and landing points being established at landmarks like Guangzhou Tower and Baiyun Mountain [3][25] - The Chinese ship leasing market is developing multidimensionally, with steady growth in scale and efficiency, despite a slowdown in asset growth rate [3][26] - The Ministry of Transport held its first routine press conference for 2026, forecasting a total of 9.5 billion cross-regional passenger flows during the Spring Festival [3][28] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a decline in air freight prices [4][30] - The domestic express delivery volume increased by 2.30% year-on-year in December 2025, while express delivery revenue rose by 0.70% [4][33] - The shipping and port sector shows mixed trends, with the domestic container shipping price index declining while dry bulk freight rates are rising [4][38] Investment Recommendations - Opportunities in the express logistics sector for international market expansion are recommended, with a focus on companies like SF Holding and Jitu Express [4] - The aviation sector is highlighted for investment opportunities driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4] - The low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors are identified as trend-driven investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Heli and suggesting attention to Cao Cao Travel [4][5]

Macroeconomic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures rose by 0.11%[1] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%[1] - The yield on wealth management products from joint-stock banks settled at 1.85%, while the annualized yield of Yu'ebao remained at 1.00%[1] Asset Performance - Futures for coking coal rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% this week[1] - The commodity futures index increased by 5.71% this week, indicating strong performance in the commodity sector[6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.40% to 97.12, while international oil prices surged by 7.65% to $65.74 per barrel[4] Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[4] - The outlook for stocks is positive, with an emphasis on the implementation of "incremental" policies[2] - Bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[2] Economic Indicators - In December, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing a decline from November[4] - The total fiscal revenue for 2025 was 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% to 28.74 trillion yuan[18] Risks and Considerations - Global inflation may rise again, and there is a risk of unexpected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[4] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, which could impact market stability[2]

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2026 年 2 月 1 日 中银量化大类资产跟踪 权益高点震荡，贵金属外盘现领跌行情 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股市场整体下跌，港股市场整体上涨，美股市场走势分化，其 他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘vs大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格当 前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率上涨，中美利差处于历史高位。 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元贬值。 商品市场 ◼ 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 ◼ 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue benefiting from the resonance between financial attributes and industrial trends, with short-term adjustments potentially providing a good opportunity for medium to long-term positioning [2][3] - Recent significant adjustments in the non-ferrous sector were influenced by overnight declines in international gold and silver prices, leading to substantial drops in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks within the sector [2][3] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who holds hawkish policy views, has reversed market expectations for continued liquidity easing, strengthening the dollar and suppressing dollar-denominated precious metals [2][3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the non-ferrous sector is expected to experience increased short-term volatility, but the long-term re-evaluation logic remains unchanged. The sector will benefit from the continued demand driven by AI data centers, grid upgrades, and new energy fields, leading to a tightening supply-demand dynamic [2][3] - The report highlights that while the market reassesses the weight of "trend" versus "volatility" in the non-ferrous sector, the hawkish stance of Warsh could temporarily alter expectations for a weak dollar, increasing price volatility across all non-ferrous metals [2][3] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term industrial logic remains intact due to the anticipated trend of interest rate cuts and rigid supply-side factors, suggesting that current pullbacks may present better positioning opportunities from a medium to long-term perspective [2][3]

Strategy Overview - The core strategy indicates that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman suggests a hawkish policy stance, advocating for balance sheet reduction and cautious interest rate cuts, which may reverse market expectations for continued liquidity easing and strengthen the dollar, leading to a global tightening of dollar liquidity expectations and asset price reassessment [4][2] - In the short term, after a strong spring rally, the market may enter a rhythm adjustment period due to proactive policy guidance and increased overseas disturbances, presenting rotation opportunities for previously stagnant sectors [4][2] Real Estate Sector: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions, with a settlement area of 814,000 square meters, up 20.8% year-on-year, and a settlement amount of 17.37 billion yuan, up 52.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite revenue growth, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3%, primarily due to a negative investment income of 950 million yuan and an increase in minority shareholder losses [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company’s debt structure improved, with interest-bearing debt down 8.6% year-on-year to 68.2 billion yuan, and the average financing cost decreased by 48 basis points to 2.90% [9] - The company’s sales ranking improved to 15th in the industry, with a sales amount of 29.5 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, despite a 13.5% year-on-year decline [10] Transportation Sector: CITIC Offshore Helicopter - CITIC Offshore Helicopter is a leading player in China's general aviation sector, operating the largest civil helicopter fleet in Asia with 84 advanced model helicopters [13] - The company has a strong revenue stream from offshore oil services, with nearly 70% of its revenue derived from this segment, and maintains a market share of over 60% in the offshore helicopter service market [14] - The general aviation market in China is expected to grow steadily, supported by policy guidance, with the number of general airports reaching 475 and the number of general aviation enterprises reaching 760 by 2024 [14] Transportation Sector: Air China - Air China is the only flag carrier in China, with passenger transport services accounting for nearly 91% of total revenue in 2024 [16] - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.14% year-on-year, with a sales gross margin of 5.11% [16] - The domestic passenger transport volume reached 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [17] Chemical Sector: Zhejiang Longsheng - The company reported a 6.47% year-on-year decline in revenue to 6.505 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 29.80%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [19][20] - The dye business saw a slight revenue decline of 3.17% to 3.632 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 4.40 percentage points to 34.17% [19] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to maintain stable development amid industry challenges [19] Chemical Sector: Yake Technology - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.37% in the electronic materials segment, with a total revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [24] - The company is actively developing new technologies and products in the LNG and electronic materials sectors, with a focus on semiconductor chemical materials [23] New Energy Sector: Foster - Foster is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials market, maintaining a market share of around 50% [27] - The company is exploring new solutions for space environment applications, leveraging its existing technology in photovoltaic materials [28] Medical Sector: Mindray Medical - The company faced revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with a 23.77% year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue to 8.506 billion yuan [29] - International business revenue increased by 5.39%, accounting for about 50% of total revenue, indicating a growing presence in the global market [30] - The company is focusing on building a digital healthcare ecosystem through the integration of devices, IT, and AI technologies [31] Food and Beverage Sector: Kweichow Moutai - The company is navigating a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on quality and long-term value rather than short-term performance metrics [33] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 91.3% [34] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 8.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 24.39% [36] - The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel management services, with a focus on enhancing its operational capabilities [38] Electronics Sector: Zhaoyi Innovation - The company expects a revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by demand from AI computing and the storage industry [39]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates an increase in volatility in international capital markets, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% this week, while the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, emphasizing the importance of the implementation of "incremental" policies [2][3] - A cautious stance is recommended for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, leading to an underweight allocation [2][3] - The report maintains a neutral position on commodities, highlighting the need to monitor fiscal spending in 2026 [2][3] Economic Data Insights - Industrial profits for December showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, reversing a previous decline [4][18] - The fiscal revenue for 2025 was reported at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% [4][18] Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading gains while the ChiNext Index saw a decline of 3.78% [36] - In the commodities market, coal futures rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% [1][11] Policy Developments - The report highlights the publication of a significant article by President Xi Jinping on the importance of building a strong financial nation, emphasizing the need for a robust economic foundation and effective financial institutions [4][19] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures targeting key sectors [4][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US interest rate cut cycle is not over. After the current risk factors are released, the US Treasury market may return to the downward trend of yields [2][4][15] - China's bond market also needs to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. Whether the performance growth of technology stocks can support their valuations will have an important impact on the bond market through factors such as stock - bond linkage and the flow of household savings [4][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Some important risk factors in the US Treasury market in the first quarter are gradually becoming clear. The next Fed chair nominee, tariff case alternatives, the Cook case, geopolitical factors, and technology stock performance are the main observation points [4][12][13] - The performance of technology stocks in the US may continue to drive economic growth, but has limited impact on overall employment, which in turn affects inflation through the salary channel [4][15] - In the week of January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.89% week - on - week, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and the edible agricultural products price index increased by 0.90% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the domestic cement price index decreased by 1.03% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week on average, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.26% week - on - week, the rebar inventory index increased by 7.73% week - on - week, the rebar price index decreased by 0.18% week - on - week, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 0.46% week - on - week. The producer price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased by 5.84% and 5.38% week - on - week respectively. The average price of LME copper spot increased by 2.90% week - on - week, the average price of aluminum spot increased by 2.32% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 4.21% week - on - week [4][19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document shows multiple charts comparing high - frequency data with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the year - on - year change of the RJ/CRB price index and the year - on - year change of export volume, the year - on - year change of the producer price index and the year - on - year change of PPI for industrial products [25][27][30] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe and Japan - The document shows charts of the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year in the US, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of Japan and the Eurozone in the derivatives market [90][94][96] Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increase) of various high - frequency data, including the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, steel price index of rebar, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills [102][106][110] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen [146][148]

Revenue and Income Trends - In December 2025, total public finance revenue was CNY 15,529.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0%, with the decline expanding by 24.9 percentage points compared to November[4] - Tax revenue for December was CNY 11,549.0 billion, down 11.5% year-on-year, marking a negative growth shift of 14.3 percentage points[4] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 3,980.0 billion, a significant decline of 47.9%, with the drop widening by 37.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Insights - Public finance expenditure in December was CNY 38,857.0 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from November[4] - Local public finance expenditure was CNY 34,055.0 billion, decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.9 percentage points compared to November[4] - The share of expenditure on social security and employment fell to 9.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%[2] Sector-Specific Expenditure - Expenditure on health, energy conservation, and cultural tourism increased by 12.1%, 3.1%, and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Infrastructure spending accounted for 25.0% of the public finance budget in December, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued focus on "stabilizing growth"[2] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue in December was CNY 1,118.0 billion, up 36.5% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was CNY 16,312.0 billion, down 13.8%[5] - The revenue from state land use rights fell to CNY 12,399.0 billion, a decrease of 22.9% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in local government fund revenue[5] Overall Fiscal Performance - For the entire year of 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 216,045.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[7] - General public budget expenditure for the year was CNY 287,395.0 billion, showing a modest increase of 1.0% year-on-year[12] - The central budget expenditure for the year increased by 19.0%, indicating a significant contribution to overall fiscal performance[22]