Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the pessimistic expectations surrounding computing infrastructure are reversing, with leading companies like Nvidia and Broadcom showing strong market performance, indicating a sustained high prosperity trend in computing infrastructure [3][4][5] - The AI industry chain is expected to have a certain rebound potential under the influence of overseas mapping and market style rotation, making it an optimal time for investment [2][4][6] Computing Infrastructure - Recent performance in the A-share TMT sector has been notable, with telecommunications, computers, electronics, and media sectors rising by 2.42%, 2.42%, 2.23%, and 1.34% respectively, while computing infrastructure components like optical modules, copper connections, and circuit boards saw increases of 5.18%, 4.45%, and 3.88% [4] - The launch of new AI products, such as AR glasses, is accelerating the integration of AI applications from concept to execution, with major tech companies like Microsoft and Google heavily investing in this area [6] AI Industry Chain - The report highlights that the AI application landscape is transitioning towards deep integration and task execution, with significant developments expected at the upcoming ByteDance Volcano Engine 2025 conference [6] - The computing infrastructure sector, particularly components directly benefiting from the high prosperity of overseas computing leaders like Nvidia, is identified as a key area for investment focus [6]

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 8 日 PMI 修复，内需仍需重视 5 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业 PMI 边际回暖，内需相对而言仍需后续政策支持。 相关研究报告 《市场策略更新》20250601 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《策略点评》20250530 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 固定收益 证券分析师：肖成哲 (8610)66229354 chengzhe.xiao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060005 ◼ 制造业 PMI 数据在枯荣线下边际回暖，中国国家统计局 5 月 31 日公布， 5 月份，中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分 点。"抢出口"仍在持续，但边际有所放缓；出厂价格、产成品库存、主要 原材料购进价格、供应商配送时间分项指数下降，其余分项较上月有所回 升。 ◼ 分项而言，内需相对外需仍有所不足。PMI 分项中新订单增长相较新出 口订单增长仍有所不足。5 月制造业新出口订单上行 2.8 个百分点至 47.5%，但 5 月制造业新订单仅上涨 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a diversified investment strategy with a focus on specific stocks, including SF Holding, Anji Technology, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the near term [1] - The macroeconomic analysis points to a mixed performance in domestic and foreign demand, with improvements in the external trade environment positively impacting manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The tourism sector shows a strong recovery during the Dragon Boat Festival, with significant increases in domestic travel and spending, driven by short-distance leisure travel and cultural events [8][10] Macroeconomic Analysis - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery but still within a contraction zone, with new orders and production indices showing improvements [5][6] - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.9%, reflecting robust demand and export orders [7] - The report notes a positive shift in manufacturing expectations, with a production activity expectation index of 52.5% [6] Tourism Sector Insights - The Dragon Boat Festival saw 119 million domestic trips, a 5.7% increase year-on-year, with total spending reaching 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [8][10] - The integration of cultural and sports events has significantly boosted tourism, with family-oriented travel becoming a prominent trend [9] - Cross-border travel remains strong, with a notable increase in inbound tourism, particularly from countries with visa-free policies [10] Pharmaceutical Sector Analysis - The report on Ma Yinglong indicates a solid revenue growth of 18.85% year-on-year for 2024, with a total revenue of 3.728 billion yuan [12] - The company’s focus on the healthcare sector, particularly in the treatment of hemorrhoids, is expected to drive future growth, supported by a strong brand presence [13][15] - The pharmaceutical industry overall is experiencing steady growth, with a significant increase in sales of hemorrhoid treatment products [13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperforming the Market" [32] Core Insights - Nvidia reported strong Q1 earnings with revenue of $44.1 billion, a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 69% year-over-year increase, despite being affected by export controls [11][12] - The DeepSeek R1 model has completed a minor version upgrade, achieving top performance among domestic models and nearing international leaders [13][14] - Huawei's Pangu team launched the Pangu Ultra MoE model, addressing stability issues in training large-scale models, which signifies a successful practice of autonomous training using domestic computing power [15][16] Company Dynamics - Zhongke Chuangda announced a special loan commitment of up to 70 million yuan for stock repurchase [3] - Kingsoft Office disclosed the results of its restricted stock incentive plan, with a total of 505,289 shares newly added, bringing the total share capital to 463,179,293 shares [23] - The report highlights the importance of companies in the Huawei supply chain and EDA software sector, suggesting a focus on firms like Softcom Power, Tuo Wei Information, and others [4]

Core Insights - The report explores the construction and application of a style factor system for A-shares, focusing on four dimensions: market capitalization, valuation, profitability, and momentum [2][9][12] - A-shares have exhibited different dominant factors over various periods, with profitability leading from 2013 to 2014, small-cap factors from 2015 to 2016, valuation from 2016 to 2018, and a return to profitability dominance from 2019 to early 2021 [2][24][27] - The report predicts a resurgence of high valuation factors starting in 2025, driven by expectations of weak profit recovery and strong policy support [2][27] Style Factor Construction and Performance - The style factor system is constructed using a bottom-up approach, assigning style labels to each stock based on their factor indicators [9][12] - The performance of the style factors shows that small-cap stocks have generally outperformed large-cap stocks since 2010, with a notable fivefold return from small-cap strategies [12][17] - Valuation factors indicate that low valuation styles have been particularly strong, especially during specific periods such as 2017-2018 and 2022-2024 [14][15] Influencing Factors of Style Factors - Profitability factors are highly correlated with economic cycles, showing better performance during economic upturns [45][46] - Valuation factors are closely linked to market sentiment, with high valuation stocks performing better during periods of positive sentiment [49][50] - Market capitalization factors are significantly influenced by remaining liquidity, with small-cap factors performing strongly in liquidity-rich environments [53][54] Application of Style Factor System - The report establishes an A-share style investment system based on the identified style factors, suggesting that the current dominant styles are high profitability, high valuation, and small-cap [2][27] - The analysis indicates that the A-share market has not fully priced in the expected profit recovery, suggesting potential upside for high profitability and high valuation factors [2][27] - Different asset types exhibit varying dominant style factors, with emerging growth assets showing significant small-cap advantages and dividend assets reflecting low valuation strengths [29][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 29.00 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in its performance, with a 2024 revenue of RMB 3.728 billion, representing an 18.85% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 528 million, up 19.14% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of RMB 969 million, a 1.48% increase, and a net profit of RMB 204 million, up 2.99% year-on-year. The company has a strong brand presence in the anorectal field and is expected to gain new growth from its health business [3][5]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in its health business, particularly with the launch of new products targeting the anorectal health management market, which is anticipated to enhance brand recognition and sales [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 3.728 billion, with a growth rate of 18.9%. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 4.204 billion, RMB 4.720 billion, and RMB 5.250 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 12.8%, 12.3%, and 11.2% [7]. - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 528 million, with a growth rate of 19.1%. The projected net profits for the following years are RMB 616 million, RMB 714 million, and RMB 798 million, with growth rates of 16.6%, 16.0%, and 11.7% [7]. Valuation - The report slightly adjusts the profit forecast, estimating the net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 616 million, RMB 714 million, and RMB 798 million, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.43, RMB 1.66, and RMB 1.85. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are expected to be 20.3, 17.5, and 15.7 times [5][7]. Market Position - The company has a strong foothold in the anorectal market, with significant brand advantages. The health sector is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities, particularly through the introduction of innovative products and enhanced market coverage [3][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][23] Core Insights - The domestic cultural tourism market is returning to short-distance leisure travel as the main focus during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a high proportion of family-oriented spending and the integration of culture, sports, and tourism driving consumption [1][3] - The cross-border travel market remains robust and is expected to continue its strong performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - During the Dragon Boat Festival, 119 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending reaching 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year [7][10] - The average spending per trip was 359.08 yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year [7] - The short holiday period led to a focus on local and nearby travel [7] Cultural and Sports Integration - The overlap of the Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day significantly boosted family-oriented travel, with family orders accounting for 25% of total travel orders and an 80% increase in bookings for family group tours [13][14] - Events like the Jiangsu City Football League and the South China Dragon Boat Race catalyzed tourism consumption, with various promotional activities driving visitor numbers to local attractions [14] Cross-Border Travel - A total of 5.907 million people entered and exited the country during the holiday, with an average of 1.969 million daily, marking a 2.7% year-on-year increase [15] - The number of foreign visitors entering under visa-free policies rose by 59.4% year-on-year [15] - Popular outbound destinations included Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia [15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong resources and operational capabilities, such as Lingnan Holdings, Zhongxin Tourism, Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Songcheng Performing Arts [3][16] - Hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Shou Travel Hotel [3][16] - The growth in cross-border travel is expected to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations for China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [3][16]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with a notable increase in the sales decline for the top 100 real estate companies in May [1][7] - New home transaction area shows a narrowing month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month and shows an expanding year-on-year decline [1][7] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decrease [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of May 24 to May 30, new home transaction area increased by 6.4% month-on-month but decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total of 276.7 million square meters transacted across 40 cities [19][24] - The transaction area for second-hand homes decreased by 10.9% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 179.2 million square meters across 18 cities [47][54] - New home inventory in 12 cities reached 8,789 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [41][48] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transacted across 100 cities was 1,003.1 million square meters, down 34.7% month-on-month and 27.0% year-on-year, while the total land price increased by 53.6% month-on-month to 25.64 billion [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,556.1 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [61][66] 3. Policy Overview - Local policies have been introduced to stimulate housing consumption, including measures such as reducing down payment ratios and tax exemptions for housing transactions [3][98][99] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of a "trade-in" model for housing and the expansion of housing provident fund usage [3][99] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Insights - Seanergy's Q1 revenue and net profit declined year-on-year, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged by 30.68%, marking the second-largest weekly increase in history [2][12] - Domestic passenger fuel surcharges for air travel have been reduced, and Beijing Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume has exceeded 100 billion yuan [2][14] - Aneng Logistics reported Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while SF Airlines launched its first fifth freedom cargo route [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Seanergy's Q1 revenue was $2.4206 million, down 36.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of $6.829 million [2][12] - The SCFI increased to 2,072.71 points, up 30.68% week-on-week, driven by significant price hikes in major routes [2][13] - Domestic air travel fuel surcharge adjustments took effect on June 5, 2025, potentially boosting passenger willingness to travel [2][14] - Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume reached 102 billion yuan, highlighting its growing role in international trade [15] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices showed a stable trend in May 2025, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4,444 points, down 10.3% year-on-year [23] - Domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 1.67% year-on-year in April 2025, while international flights increased by 25.08% [31] - The SCFI reported a week-on-week increase of 30.68%, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 5.74% [38][41] 3. Company Performance - Aneng Logistics achieved Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase [19][20] - SF Airlines launched its first international cargo route to Canada, enhancing its global logistics network [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [3] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors and cruise shipping [3]