1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and tire operating rate at a high level. The market has support below, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot**: The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is -560, showing a bearish signal. The 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price remained flat on November 10 [4][8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has been continuously de - stocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [4][14][17]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]. 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on November 10 [35]. 3.5 Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production and exports are at record highs for the same period [23][26][29][32].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8372, and the basis is 144, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8714, and the basis is 24, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. This is a neutral factor [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9881, and the basis is 294, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of edible oils are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, safety inspections and strict control of over - production lead to a continuous tight supply. The improvement in coke prices boosts market confidence, and the procurement demand from downstream and middlemen has slightly increased. However, due to poor profits, downstream is starting to be cautious about some over - priced coal types. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [2]. - For coke, after the third round of price increase, the loss of coke enterprises has slightly eased, and the inventory is at a low level. But most coke enterprises are on the verge of profit and loss, and there is an intention to expand production cuts. The supply pattern remains tight in the short term. The demand from downstream steel mills has decreased slightly, which suppresses the further increase of coke prices. It is expected that the short - term coke price will remain stable [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, downstream demand has a slight recovery, but there is caution about over - priced coal; bullish [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 164.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - Main position: Net long position of main coking coal contract, long position decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Downstream demand is good, but steel mill profits are low and iron - water output is falling, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: After the price increase, the loss has eased, inventory is low, but profit issues may lead to production cuts, supply remains tight; bullish [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 63.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [6]. - Main position: Net short position of main coke contract, short position increasing; bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply is stable with profit repair, low inventory supports the price, but downstream demand is weakening, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production, difficult to increase supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Prices - On November 10 (17:30), most port metallurgical coke prices showed a downward trend, with price drops ranging from 20 to 40 [9]. - On November 10 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal varied by type and port, and the price of 1/3 coking coal (GJ) at Caofeidian Port increased by 110 [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is currently dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [5]. - For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. The port inventory has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, resulting in weak market sentiment [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored when the market rebounds [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stable. The negotiation and transaction price in mid - and late November was around 4565 - 4640, and the mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 78 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4594, the basis of the 01 contract is - 110, and the futures price is at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, leading to weak market sentiment. The spot transaction was around a premium of 67 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4008, the basis of the 01 contract is 55, and the futures price is at a discount [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 56.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 tons [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main position has changed from short to long [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus PTA - The short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the device [5]. MEG - It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the supply and demand situation has changed. For example, in 2024, the supply growth rate was relatively high in some months, and the inventory also changed accordingly [8]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the demand from the polyester industry has also affected its supply - demand balance. The port inventory has also shown different trends in different periods [9]. Price Data - On November 10, 2025, compared with November 7, 2025, the prices of some products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and MEG have changed. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 382.778 to 56.7 yuan/ton [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is moderately weak, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year-on-year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -40, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is neutral, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the materialization of export expectations has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and rebounding agricultural demand; bearish factors include domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1620 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1620 (0), and the FOB China price is 2741 [6]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1660 (-7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1732 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1755 (+2) [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR01 contract is -40 (+27) [6]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts is 6415 (+1830), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 97,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - **Capacity and Production**: From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E [9]. - **Net Imports and Consumption**: Net imports and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [9]. - **Inventory and Consumption Growth**: The期末 inventory and consumption growth rates have also changed over the years [9].

Group 1: Overall Market Condition and Expectations - The bond market showed an overall oscillatory strengthening trend, with long - term bonds performing slightly better than short - term bonds. The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures rose 0.22%. The liquidity in the inter - bank market tightened further, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions rose more than 15bp to 1.48%. Vanke bonds generally declined, with "22 Vanke 06" falling more than 8%. The bond market sentiment was fair, and it is expected to remain oscillatory until the end of the year, with few trend opportunities [2]. - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF roll - overs for the 8th consecutive month. The October PMI data was below expectations and still below the boom - bust line. In September, the CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase of core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [4]. Group 2: Capital and Policy - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment on the day was 41.6 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Basis and Inventory Analysis - The main basis of TS was - 0.0211, indicating that the cash bond was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The main basis of TF was - 0.0235, also bearish. The main basis of T was 0.0202, and the main basis of TL was 0.1186, both indicating that the cash bond was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [2]. - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which was neutral [3]. Group 4: Market Technical Analysis - The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [3]. - The main contract of TS had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of TF also had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of T had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. Group 5: Main Contract Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.485 | 0.01% | 58,830 | 231,393 | - 4,216 | 250018.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.940 | 0.02% | 49,109 | 138,398 | - 4,021 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.468 | 0.00% | 24,929 | 67,365 | - 700 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.28 | 0.22% | 96,097 | 129,150 | 1,495 | 210005.IB | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices weakened. After the macro - impact subsided, the market focus returned to fundamentals. The lack of improvement in terminal consumption directly hit the black - metal industry chain. Both steel products showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand continued to decline, which dampened market confidence. Notably, iron ore weakened significantly this week. The negative feedback from the weak terminal demand was finally transmitted to iron ore, with a large accumulation of port inventories and a significant drop in molten iron production, resulting in iron ore performing weaker than steel products. Looking ahead, given the unfavorable domestic policies and external export conditions, terminal demand is unlikely to improve. The report maintains the view that the pattern of the off - peak season during the peak period for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore market will remain weak [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 773 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 30 yuan; Ba Hun powder price decreased from 840 yuan/wet ton to 814 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 26 yuan. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 15.51 yuan/wet ton to - 9.32 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 6.19 yuan; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 8.41 yuan/wet ton to 19.75 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11.34 yuan. Australia's shipments to China decreased from 1625.3 tons to 1544.8 tons, a decrease of 80.5 tons; Brazil's shipments decreased from 925.1 tons to 856 tons, a decrease of 69.1 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 15272.93 tons to 15624.13 tons, an increase of 351.2 tons; imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2084.3 tons to 3314.1 tons, an increase of 1229.8 tons; imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 331.22 tons to 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.6 tons to 125.8 tons, an increase of 46.2 tons; daily molten iron production decreased from 236.36 tons to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons; steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 45.02% to 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [6] 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3230 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3330 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan. Blast furnace operating rate increased from 81.75% to 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate decreased from 68.83% to 67.03%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points. Rebar blast furnace profit increased from - 57 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 114 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 139 yuan/ton to - 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. Weekly rebar production decreased from 212.59 tons to 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased from 323.56 tons to 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons. Weekly rebar social inventory decreased from 430.81 tons to 425.7 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons; weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 171.71 tons to 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons. Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 328.93 tons to 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory decreased from 77.66 tons to 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 232.19 tons to 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased from 331.89 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons. Building materials trading volume decreased from 89930 tons to 87098 tons, a decrease of 2832 tons [29][31] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates are presented, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing and the electric furnace operating rate decreasing this week [29] - **Production Volumes**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Chinese steel enterprises shows a decreasing trend [29] - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces increased, while the profit of rebar in electric furnaces decreased [29] - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased and the enterprise inventory decreased [31] - **Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [31] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [31] - **Export Volumes**: The monthly export volume of steel products in China is presented [53] - **Real Estate Indicators**: The report shows the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, etc. [54][55] - **Manufacturing PMI**: The monthly value of the manufacturing PMI in China is presented [56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of rapeseed meal is neutral [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and declined, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a volatile state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, influenced by soybean meal [8]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [33]. - Rapeseed meal will fluctuate and rise in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term, mainly affected by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal [42]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of rapeseed meal, including its fundamentals, market news, and technical indicators, and gives trading strategies and future focus points [8][44] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result [11]. - The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% [8]. - The spot price is 2,640, with a basis of 101, indicating a premium over futures [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [8]. - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The import of rapeseed has no shipping schedule in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are at low levels [21][23]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [31] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed in [8] 6. Trading Strategies - Futures: Short - term range - bound and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2,500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [12]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose due to the Canadian Prime Minister's statement. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [42]. - The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a high level, and the short - term market is in a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium - high level limits the rebound height [42]. - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing. Future trends depend on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [42] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - The second - most important points are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [44]. - Other important points are macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,253 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,048 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 6.30%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic asphalt sample capacity utilization rate was 31.8792%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 308,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.79%. The sample enterprise output was 532,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 745,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.53%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected that supply pressure will continue to ease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 10.4226%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.61 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 1.00 percentage point, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 576.02 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.10%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 799.3871 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34.46%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory Side**: Social inventory was 897,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.26%. Factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.42%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.00%. Social, factory, and port inventories are all decreasing [6]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - Spread Trend**: The report presents the base - spread trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [10][12]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15]. - **沥青原油价格走势**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [18]. - **原油裂解价差**: The report shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), but no specific data analysis is provided [21][22]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: The report shows the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **各地区市场价走势**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [28]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [30]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: The report shows the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [33][34]. - **Supply Side** - **出货量**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [36]. - **稀释沥青港口库存**: The report shows the port inventory of diluted asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - **产量**: The report shows the weekly and monthly output of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [41]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: The report shows the price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [46]. - **地炼沥青产量**: The report shows the output of refinery asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [49]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [51]. - **检修损失量预估**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [54]. - **Inventory** - **交易所仓单**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt, including total, social, and factory warehouses, but no specific data analysis is provided [57][59]. - **社会库存和厂内库存**: The report shows the social and factory inventories of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [62]. - **厂内库存存货比**: The report shows the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [65]. - **进出口情况**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, as well as the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [68][71] - **Demand Side** - **石油焦产量**: The report shows the output of petroleum coke, but no specific data analysis is provided [74]. - **表观消费量**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [77]. - **下游需求**: The report shows the downstream demand trends of asphalt, including highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific data analysis is provided [80][81]. - **下游机械需求走势**: The report shows the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working - hour trends of excavators, but no specific data analysis is provided [85][87]. - **沥青开工率** - **重交沥青开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trend of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [89]. - **按用途分沥青开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt by usage, but no specific data analysis is provided [92]. - **下游开工情况**: The report shows the开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [95][97]. - **供需平衡表**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, showing data such as monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output from January 2024 to November 2025 [100]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fuel oil prices also mainly rose first and then fell. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets were dragged down by sufficient supply, with weak overall trends. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 2.48% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3255 yuan/ton, down 0.40% for the week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market still faces the dilemma of sufficient immediate supply and sluggish downstream bunker fuel activities, but the current East - West arbitrage economy is basically unfeasible, which may help reduce arbitrage cargoes from Europe in December and relieve the current oversupply situation. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported by stable downstream bunker fuel demand, but competitive quotes for shipments in the second half of November have suppressed spot spreads. International crude oil prices may fluctuate slightly lower, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to decline weakly. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2600 - 2800 range in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3200 - 3350 range in the short term [5] Group 2: Periodic and Spot Price Summary - Futures Price: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2790, and the current value is 2744, a decrease of 46 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3253, and the current value is 3290, an increase of 37 or 1.12% [6] - Spot Price: The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 465.00, and the current value is 469.00, an increase of 4.00 or 0.86%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 477.00, and the current value is 478.00, an increase of 1.00 or 0.21%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 364.42, and the current value is 363.42, a decrease of 1.00 or - 0.27%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 452.50, and the current value is 449.50, a decrease of 3.00 or - 0.66%. The previous value of Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil was 333.59, and the current value is 334.02, an increase of 0.43 or 0.13%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 675.32, and the current value is 677.96, an increase of 2.65 or 0.39% [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Summary - Consumption Data: There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [8][9][10] Group 4: Inventory Data Summary - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: On November 5, the inventory was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels. There are also inventory data from August 20 to October 29, showing fluctuations in inventory [11] - Inventory Trends: There are descriptions of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [12][13] Group 5: Spread Data Summary - High - and Low - Sulfur Futures Spread: There is a chart showing the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [15]