Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply of industrial silicon will increase slightly while demand remains sluggish, with cost support rising, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment. For polysilicon, the supply will increase in the short - term and potentially adjust in the medium - term, the demand will continue to recover, and the cost support will weaken, also with a bearish oscillatory adjustment expected [4][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 11 - contract declined this week, with an opening price of 8805 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 8745 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 0.68% [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly supply was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 38,235 tons, a 1.81% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 53.8%, up 1.19 percentage points from last month [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease from the previous week, remaining in a slump [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang was 3174 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 175,100 tons, a 2.31% increase; the main port inventory was 117,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The 11 - contract declined this week, with an opening price of 52,810 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 51,405 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 2.66% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week's output was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease. The planned output for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from last month [7]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in terms of output, inventory, and profit. Overall, the demand is gradually recovering [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 35,590 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,410 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historically high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread, showing the price relationships between different products and contracts [13][14]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Analyzes the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions and time periods, including weekly and monthly data [18][19][20]. - **Cost**: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types, including electricity prices, silica prices, and electrode prices [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Analyzes the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including factors such as production, import, export, and consumption [26][29]. - **Downstream Industries**: Analyzes the market trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, covering aspects such as price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance [32][41][49]. 3. Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [72][73]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [74][75].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-25甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：中国拟通过产业整顿解决石化产能过剩问题，政策面利好短期支撑业者情绪，但同时供需基本面预期稍有 转弱，多空交织预计本周国内甲醇呈震荡整理态势。内地方面，内地甲醇企业库存不多，以及河南烯烃装置即将重启， 短线来看内地供需相对平衡。但同时世林、新奥和易高甲醇装置在8月下旬均有重启计划，内地开工有提升预期，且港 口库存处于年内绝对高位水平，也对内地甲醇有一定牵制。港口方面，区内主力烯烃装置暂无听闻有复产计划，同时港 口库存逐步涨至年内高位，弱需求和高库存现状压制港口市场。预计近期港口市场在强预期和弱现实下，维持涨跌皆 ...

证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年08月18日-08月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为5103元/吨,周五收盘价为5019元/吨，周跌幅为1.64% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨,环比增加0.60%;本周样本企业 产能利用率为77.61%,环比减少0.03个百分点;电石法企业产量32.8255万吨,环比减少3.94%,乙 烯法企业产量13.656万吨,环比减少2.04%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产增加幅度可观。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为42.7%,环比减少0.04个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为37. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries reducing production recently to ease the pressure. The overall demand recovery is weak, and the current demand is lower than the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3461 - 3505 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high level of crude oil cost providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The weekly shipments of sample enterprises are 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 22, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1,292,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trend from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report presents the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][64][65]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - The report presents the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report presents the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2025 [84][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume trend, and the roller sales volume trend from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report presents the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Construction Situation** - The report shows the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [8]. - From the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - In terms of cost, the profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The calcium carbide method cost is strengthening, the ethylene method cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,975 - 5,063. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [10][14]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's market data shows various indicators such as prices, spreads, inventories, and start - up rates. For example, the price of 01 contract increased by 0.30% to 5,019 yuan/ton, the social inventory increased by 3.08% to 508,000 tons, and the profile start - up rate increased by 2.00% to 37.65% [16]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract over time [18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - It shows the trading volume, price trends, and changes in the positions of the top 5/20 seats of the main PVC futures contract in 2025, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and moving averages [21]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) in 2024 and 2025, helping to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - Coke - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, inventory, and daily output trends of semi - coke in Shenmu from 2022 to 2025 [27]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - It shows the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide in Shaanxi from 2019 to 2025 [30]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025, as well as the double - ton price difference and caustic soda apparent consumption trends [35][38]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly production, weekly maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [40][43]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the cost, profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [45][49][54][57]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [58]. 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [60]. 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-25燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油精炼利润于8月22日走弱，符合IMO2020标准的船用燃料油现货贴水因9月装 船货物的竞争性销售而扩大；数据显示，新加坡燃料油进口在截至8月20日当周环比增长近一倍，达到140 万吨。来自亚洲供应商的流入量占总量的约31%，为428422吨；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油387.46美元/吨，基差为90元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为484.5美元/吨，基差为 67元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油8月20日当周库存为2391.9万桶，增加128万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The 10 - contract of asphalt showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week. The demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen [5][6][105]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: The 10 - contract opened at 3,461 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 3,483 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to provide short - term support [5]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory continued to be destocked, the factory inventory continued to be stocked, and the port inventory continued to be destocked [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis This week, the main 10 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil continues to stabilize, fluctuate, and recover. With the stagnation of the Russia-Ukraine peace process, Trump issued a "two-week" ultimatum to Russia. As of now, Russia has not made any concessions on the ceasefire agreement. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech boosted the market, causing oil prices to strengthen in the short term. The follow - up should focus on the pressure that the end of the summer peak season on the demand side may bring. It is expected to operate in the range of 488 - 498 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the September meeting, stating that risks in the job market are rising and inflation remains a threat. Trump threatened to impose large - scale sanctions or tariffs on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within two weeks. Kazakhstan's oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline continues without restrictions, with a neutral outlook [3]. - **Basis**: On August 22, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.08 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.57 per barrel. The basis was 32.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Inventory**: For the week ending August 15 in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels), and EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.759 million barrels). Cushing region inventory increased by 0.419 million barrels in the week ending August 15 (previous increase of 0.045 million barrels). As of August 22, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.767 million barrels, remaining unchanged, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 19, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions, presenting a neutral situation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trump's Threat to Russia**: Trump threatened to impose large - scale sanctions or tariffs on Russia if it fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within two weeks. Russia still demands that Ukraine give up a large area of territory in the eastern Donbass region, which is firmly rejected by Ukraine. Russia launched an air strike on a US - funded electronics factory in western Ukraine last Thursday, causing at least 15 injuries [5]. - **Powell's Hint of Interest Rate Cut**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in the next meeting, saying that the prospect of a more severe slowdown in the job market may alleviate concerns about inflation caused by tariff - induced cost increases [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US conducts secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: There is hope for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine; the US has continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium and long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $67.67 to $67.22, a decrease of $0.45 (- 0.66%); WTI crude oil increased from $63.52 to $63.66, an increase of $0.14 (0.22%); SC crude oil increased from 486.7 to 491.0, an increase of 4.30 (0.88%); Oman crude oil increased from $69.72 to $69.98, an increase of $0.26 (0.37%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $68.29 to $68.48, an increase of $0.19 (0.28%); WTI increased from $63.52 to $63.66, an increase of $0.14 (0.22%); Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.78 to $70.08, an increase of $0.30 (0.43%); Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $65.09 to $65.51, an increase of $0.42 (0.65%); Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $69.94 to $69.95, an increase of $0.01 (0.01%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels in the week ending August 15; EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 19, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 120,209, an increase of 3,467 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 19, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 182,695, a decrease of 23,852 [17].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年08月18日-08月22日 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周11合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为88160元/吨，周五收盘价为78960元/吨，周跌幅为10.40%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为19138吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产12179吨，环比增加 4.46%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2650吨，环比减少32.05%,低于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产2552 吨，环比减少6.92%,低于历史同期平均水平，回收产1757吨，环比增加4.65%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年7月碳酸锂需求量为96099实物吨，环比增加2.50%,预测下月需求量为102145实物 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address the over - capacity issue in the petrochemical industry through industrial rectification. Policy support will bolster industry sentiment in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. Next week, the domestic methanol market is expected to show a volatile and consolidating trend [5]. - In the inland region, methanol enterprises have low inventory, and the restart of an olefin plant in Henan will balance supply and demand in the short term. However, the restart plans of several methanol plants in late August will increase the operating rate, and high port inventory will also restrict the inland market. Inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - In the port area, there is no news of the restart of the main olefin plants, and the port inventory has reached a record high. Weak demand and high inventory will suppress the port market. The port market is expected to maintain high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward movements under strong expectations and weak realities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - China's plan to rectify the petrochemical industry provides short - term policy support, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The domestic methanol market will be volatile and consolidating. Inland methanol will have narrow - range fluctuations, and the port market will face high volatility due to weak demand and high inventory [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - Prices in different regions showed various changes from August 15th to 22nd. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.29%, while that in Lunan increased by 3.59% [6]. 2.2 Methanol Basis - From August 15th to 22nd, the spot price decreased by 1.29%, the futures price decreased by 0.29%, and the basis decreased by 23 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased by 36, natural - gas - based profit increased by 80, and coke - oven - gas - based profit increased by 323 from August 15th to 22nd [11]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared to last week, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. 2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price decreased by 0.38%, CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 0.62%, and the spread changed by 1 from August 15th to 22nd [16]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 0.43%, and the import spread changed from - 8 to - 28 from August 15th to 22nd [19]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from August 15th to 22nd [24]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased by 27, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased by 85, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit increased by 17, and the load increased by 1.94% [28][30][35]. 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit increased by 96, and the load in East China increased by 0.93%, and in South China increased by 3.38% [39][40]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In East China, the inventory increased by 0.93, and in South China, it increased by 3.38 [40]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 2.75%, and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 0 [44]. 3.检修状况 3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 10 - million - ton - per - year plant using coke - oven gas has been under maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly loss of 1,950 tons [46]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, while others in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally [47]. 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production or maintenance [48].