交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （10.27 -10.31 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：基本面转弱的预期下，预计短期国内甲醇延续偏弱运行。内地来看，多套烯烃装置在11月份 有检修计划，传统下游醋酸开工偏低、鲁北大型甲醇制氢装置停车检修，需求面的利空作用明显。当前国内 甲醇开工高位，以及上游甲醇工厂仍维持低库存仍然出货为主。综合来看供需矛盾短期内难有缓和，同时考 虑到当前甲醇价格已处于低位，贸易商谨慎做空对底部价格有支撑，预计跌幅有限。港口方面，海外高供应 预期和港口高库存空头氛围压制下，预计下周港口甲醇市场延续弱势下跌，关注制裁事件后续影响、伊朗发 货情况、沿海MTO开工等情况。 1,000 1,5 ...

锰硅周报10.27-10.31 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每周观点 本周观点： 近期硅锰市场震荡偏弱运行，市场观望情绪浓厚。 从成本端来看，本周焦炭二轮提涨落地，焦炭市场短期偏强运 行，锰矿市场暂稳运行。整体成本支撑加强。 从供应端来看，北方5600-5700元/吨，南方5645-5705元/吨，南北方零 售价格均贴近成本线，合金厂仅维持排单生产，生产积极性不高。有个别合金厂由于硅锰行情没有达到预期水平，10 月开始高炉检修，10月份整体开工率相较9月份有小幅下降。进入11月，南北市场表现可能不尽相同。据了解，北方 市场11月份有新增硅锰合金产能，开工率可能存在一定涨幅；而云南地区受丰水期结束影响，11月份电价即将上涨， 硅锰生产总成本将显著抬升。目前已有云南工厂明确表示 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • PP概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月 30 日，中美两 国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的 10%"芬太尼关税"，暂停对华 海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，10月下旬，美欧对俄油制裁升 级，油价反弹。供需端，塑编受旺季影响支撑需求，管材需求有所回暖。当前PP交割品现货价 6550（-80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-26，升贴水比例-0.4%，中性； • 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation due to the expected weakening of fundamentals. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventory at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For methanol 2601: Fundamentally, it is expected to be weak in the short - term. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports increased slightly, and the tradable supply in coastal areas decreased. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. It is expected to oscillate between 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton this week. [5] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol operating rates are reduced, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and CTO plants in the northwest purchase methanol externally. [6] - **Negative factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE operating rates decline significantly, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales. [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices in different regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have different degrees of decline or remain stable. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has widened, and the import spread has changed. [8][9][11] - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week. [8][23] - **Inventory data**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 tons, a slight increase of 1.31 tons from the previous period. The tradable supply in coastal areas has decreased by 0.53 tons to 83.83 tons. [5] - **Profit data**: Different production processes of methanol have different profit situations. Coal - based methanol has a profit of 105 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol has a loss of 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven gas - based methanol has a profit of 305 yuan/ton. [22] 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and loss amounts. [58] - **Overseas devices**: Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions. [59] - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin plants in the northwest and east are under maintenance, running stably, or have plans for production expansion or shutdown. [60]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2460至2520区间震荡 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产，主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响，全球地缘冲突未来仍有上升可能，对大宗商品尚有支撑。 利多： 1.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销初步认定并加征进口保证金。 2.油厂菜粕库存压力不大。 1.基本面：菜粕大幅上涨，加总理表示中加无法短期达成贸易协议刺激技术性买盘，市场回 归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库 存维持低位 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-04 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3000至3060区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，中国开始采购美国大豆和油脂反弹带动，美豆短期偏强震荡等待 中美贸易谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，美豆走势 带动和技术性震荡整理，但需求短期处于淡季和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度，短期 或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2990（华东），基差-36，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存115.3万吨，上周105.46万吨，环比增加9.33%，去年同期98.41万吨， 同比增加17.16%。偏空 4.盘 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.26%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量32.925万吨，环比增加4.10%,乙烯法企业产 量14.771万吨，环比减少1.76%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为50.54%，环比增加.68个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.83%，环比增加.96个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为42%，环比增加.799个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 81,280 - 83,280 [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 104,979 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7][8][10]. - **Basis**: On November 3rd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [10]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,421 yuan/ton, a 0.25% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 557 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 84,985 yuan/ton, an 0.80% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,158 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. It is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [10]. - **Likely Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: Most lithium - related product prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 80,550 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase [15]. - **Supply - demand Data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume decreased by 10.30% month - on - month. The monthly net import volume decreased by 9.46% month - on - month, and the supply - demand balance was in a deficit state [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations, and the production of domestic sample lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed different trends [25]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium ore showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, and demand [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) showed different trends, and the monthly production capacity also changed over time. The amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China also showed a changing trend [29][31]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends, and the export volume also changed over time [37]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a state of deficit in some months and a surplus in others, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - profit - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate) showed different trends over time [43][45][48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends, with the overall inventory showing a decreasing trend last week [50]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time, and the price and cost of batteries also changed [54][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the supply - demand balance also fluctuated [59][62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - lithium - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time, and the retail - wholesale ratio and inventory index also changed [77][81].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点——多晶硅 供给端来看，多晶硅上周产量为28200吨，环比减少4.40%,预测11月排产为12.01万 吨，较上月产量环比减少10.37%。 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为14.24GW,环比减少3.32%,库存为18.93万吨，环比增加 2.49%,目前硅片生产为亏损状态，11月排产为57.66GW,较上月产量60.65GW，环比减 少4.92%；10月电池片产量为59.27GW,环比减少2.78%,上周电池片外销厂库存为 3.85GW,环比减少36.04%，目前生产为亏损状态，11月排产量为58.68GW,环比减少 0.99%；10月组件产量为48.1GW,环比减少3.60%,11月预计组件产量为4 ...