1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. Currently, domestic methanol operating rates are at a high level, and upstream methanol factories still focus on sales with low inventories. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is at a low level, cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the suppression of the bearish atmosphere of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and the start - up of coastal MTO plants. [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to price support at the bottom. The port market is also expected to decline weakly under the influence of high supply expectations and high inventories. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different regions in China showed varying degrees of decline this week. For example, the price in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the price in Hebei decreased by 3.94% from 2,155 yuan/ton to 2,070 yuan/ton. [6] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu dropped by 3.11% from 2,157 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,090 yuan/ton on November 7th, and the futures price decreased by 3.12% from 2,180 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The basis showed a change of 1 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol production profit decreased from 130 yuan/ton on October 31st to - 36 yuan/ton on November 7th, with a weekly decline of 166 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol decreased from 305 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 323 yuan/ton. [10] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. The load in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55%. [12] 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - The CFR China price decreased from 251 US dollars/ton on October 31st to 246 US dollars/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.99%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 323.5 US dollars/ton to 322.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The spread between them changed from - 72.5 US dollars/ton to - 76.5 US dollars/ton. [15] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - The import cost of methanol decreased from 2,208 yuan/ton on October 31st to 2,165 yuan/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 1.96%. The import spread changed from - 51 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. [18] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00%. [24] 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased from - 149 yuan/ton to - 111 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased from 490 yuan/ton to 611 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. Acetic acid production profit increased from 214 yuan/ton to 251 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32%. [25][27][32] 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit increased from - 202 yuan/ton to 214 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18%. [36] 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 78.18 to 78.8, an increase of 0.62. In the South China port, the inventory decreased from 50.11 to 49.81, a decrease of 0.30. [37] 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased from 11,837 on October 31st to 10,914 on November 7th, a decrease of 7.80%. The valid forecasts remained at 0, with a change of 0.00%. [41] 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat with a capacity of 100,000 tons has been under maintenance since early November, and Qinghai Zhonghao with a capacity of 600,000 tons has been under maintenance since October 23, 2024, until the end of March 2025. [43] 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants have different operating conditions. Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one unit restored, but it needs verification. [44] 3.3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Many olefin plants have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some have future production or maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last for 45 days. [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The supply side of copper is disrupted with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being loosened. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared to the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper market is considered neutral based on fundamentals. The spot price is 86,470 with a basis of -10, indicating a discount to the futures price, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on November 10, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased from last week. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - trending, and the main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing. Overall, it is expected that copper prices will oscillate at a high level due to inventory increases and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply side has disruptions, smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is loosened, and China's manufacturing PMI in October is 49.0%, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 86,470, basis is -10, discount to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 10, copper inventory increased by 375 to 136,275 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons from last week, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - trending, bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Copper prices will oscillate at a high level due to inventory increases and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: Global policy easing [3]. - **利空**: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [22]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory is rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **沪镍**: The outer market rebounds and then falls, with the 20 - day moving average exerting strong pressure. The nickel ore price is firm, while the nickel - iron price continues to decline. Stainless steel inventory rises slightly. New nickel production capacity is coming on - stream, and there is also some production cut. Short - term output may decline, but the medium - to - long - term supply is strong. The overall boost from the new energy vehicle industry is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2512 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly and test cost support [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless steel price remains stable. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, and the ocean freight is stable, while the nickel - iron price drops, causing the cost line to loosen further. Stainless steel inventory rises slightly. The stainless steel 2512 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 多空因素 - **利多因素**: The ore price is firm, providing cost - line support; there is new production capacity coming on - stream and some production cuts, so short - term output may decline [7]. - **利空因素**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new demand growth point, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate [7]. 基差 - 沪镍 - The previous trading day's Shanghai spot - Shanghai nickel basis was 1520 [9]. 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 | Type | 11 - 10 Price | 11 - 7 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **沪镍主力** | 119440 | 119440 | - 310 | | **伦镍电** | 15100 | 15020 | 80 | | **不锈钢主力** | 12565 | 12565 | - 25 | | **SMM1电解镍** | 120900 | 120900 | 400 | | **1金川镍** | 122425 | 122425 | 500 | | **1进口镍** | 119825 | 119825 | 350 | | **镍豆** | 121875 | 121875 | 350 | | **冷卷304*2B（无锡）** | 13550 | 13550 | 0 | | **冷卷304*2B（佛山）** | 13700 | 13700 | 0 | | **冷卷304*2B（杭州）** | 13450 | 13450 | 0 | | **冷卷304*2B（上海）** | 13500 | 13500 | 0 | [12] 镍仓单、库存 - As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37187 tons, of which the futures inventory was 32634 tons, an increase of 436 tons and 1246 tons respectively. | Type | 11 - 10 Inventory | 11 - 7 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **伦镍** | 253404 | 253104 | 300 | | **沪镍（仓单）** | 32533 | 32634 | - 101 | | **总库存** | 285937 | 285738 | 199 | [14][15] 不锈钢仓单、库存 - On November 7, the Wuxi inventory was 599,000 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,034,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 124,000 tons. | Type | 11 - 10 Inventory | 11 - 7 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **不锈钢仓单** | 72031 | 72091 | - 60 | [19][20] 镍矿、镍铁价格 | Type | Grade | 11 - 10 Price | 11 - 7 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **红土镍矿CIF** | Ni1.5% | 58 | 58 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | **红土镍矿CIF** | Ni0.9% | 30 | 30 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | **海运费 菲律宾 - 连云港** | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | **海运费 菲律宾 - 天津港** | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | **湿吨 高镍** | 8 - 12 | 914.5 | 916.5 | - 2 | CNY/nickel point | | **湿吨 低镍** | 2以下 | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | CNY/ton | [24] 不锈钢生产成本 | Type | Cost | | --- | --- | | **传统成本** | 12739 | | **废钢生产成本** | 12893 | | **低镍+纯镍成本** | 16532 | [26] 镍进口成本测算 - The converted import price is 121,082 CNY/ton [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to move in a range [2][5]. - The downstream glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash. However, since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass downstream has weakened [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is expected to be abundant. There are supply disturbances in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high level, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,226 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Current Value | 1,226 yuan/ton | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.32% | 1.30% | 1.82% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with variable short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, both being bullish. In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, and with improved macro sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Bullish factors include capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, geopolitical disturbances affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts. Bearish factors are the poor global economic outlook, high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, a soft real - estate market, and variable short - term macro sentiment [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 21490, basis is - 235, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 239 tons to 113335 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2]. - Price Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - running, which is bullish [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, and with improved macro sentiment, aluminum prices will be strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances affect Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economic outlook is poor, high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebates for aluminum products are cancelled [3]. Daily汇总 - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70770, down 375; Southern Storage's was 70690, down 450; and Yangtze River's today's price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750; SHFE inventory increased by 29728 to 136300 (weekly) [4]. 供需平衡 - China's annual aluminum supply - demand balance shows that from 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, except for a 1.3 - million - ton surplus in 2020. In 2024, it is expected to have a 15 - million - ton surplus [23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-11 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1052元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1069元/吨，基差为-17元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6313.6万重量箱，较前一周减少4.03%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策、环保政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业产能出清 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market are neutral. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be lower than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year. ICAC's November report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. USDA's September report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [5]. - **Expected Situation**: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, with possible lower production than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. - **Base Difference**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,844, and the base difference is 1264 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 year forecast for ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [7]. - **Bullish Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10% [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to come onto the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the report 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in the 2025/26 year is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [15][16]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); global trade volume is 0.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with narrower year - on - year fluctuations [17]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 2025/26 year, the estimated production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [19]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The hope that the US government shutdown will end has led to a rapid increase in risk appetite, causing significant rebounds in gold and silver prices. The optimistic expectation of the US ending the shutdown and the rise in risk appetite are driving the continued recovery of gold and silver prices under emotional influence [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened as the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and concerns about the escalation of China-US tariffs) have significantly improved and even shown a turning trend [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 2.83% to $4,123.40 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, risk appetite rebounded, and silver prices rose significantly. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 4.70% to $50.41 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with an increase in long positions [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and gold prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. The Shanghai gold premium remains around 0 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and silver prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. Additionally, silver being included in the US critical minerals list may reignite tariff concerns and provide support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September trade balance and current account - Time TBD: Citigroup's 20th China Summit in Shenzhen from November 11 - 12, G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Canada - 10:00 New Zealand's Q4 2 - year inflation expectation - 15:00 UK's September three - month ILO employment number and unemployment rate - 16:30 Speeches by Bank of England MPC member Greene, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic, and ECB Governing Council member and Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen - 18:00 Eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's November ZEW economic sentiment index - 21:00 Speech by ECB Governing Council member Kocher - Next day 06:15 Participation of RBA Assistant Governor Jones in a fireside chat [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 2.65, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 12, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 170,662, an increase of 5,401 (3.27%) compared to November 9; the short position volume was 68,384, an increase of 776 (1.15%); the net position was 102,278, an increase of 4,625 (4.74%) [31]. - **Silver**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 353,561, a decrease of 1,037 (- 0.29%) compared to November 7; the short position volume was 261,865, an increase of 5,886 (2.30%); the net position was 91,696, a decrease of 6,923 (- 7.02%) [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting a supply surplus. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is relatively resistant to decline compared to the foreign sugar market, and the near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 255 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, foreign sugar prices have been falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar has been relatively resistant to decline. The near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 620,000 - ton surplus (another mention is 750,000 tons), Datagro expects a 153,000 - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420,000 - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115,000 - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Costs**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5,086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.08 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5,679 - 5,708 yuan per ton [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is hovering around the 4000 mark. Due to the positive news that the two parties in the US will end the government shutdown, global stock markets have rebounded. Domestic sector hotspots are rotating, and the overall market is oscillating with a slight upward trend. However, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions when the market rises [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Index Basis and Spread**: - IH2512 has a premium of 0.14 points, IF2512 has a discount of 23.05 points, IC2512 has a discount of 108 points, and IM2512 has a discount of 142.25 points [3][5]. - The performance of each index contract shows different price differences and trends [5]. - **Index Position and Expectation**: - The main players in IF have reduced long positions, while those in IH have increased long positions, and those in IC have reduced long positions, showing a slightly positive trend [4]. - The overall market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, but it is advisable to reduce positions on rallies [4]. 2. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: Different important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, etc., have different daily return rates, reflecting the performance of different sectors in the market [13]. - **Style Index Daily Returns**: Various style indexes, including cyclical, non - cyclical, and different price - to - earnings ratio indexes, show different daily return rates, indicating the performance of different market styles [16][19]. 3. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium**: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index shows the premium relationship between A - shares and H - shares over a certain period [22]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The PE and PB of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index reflect the valuation levels of these indexes over a long - term period [25][27]. 4. Market Capital - **Stock Market Capital Inflow**: The inflow of funds into the A - share market and the CSI 300 shows the capital flow situation in the market [29]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance and the CSI 300 reflect the scale of margin trading in the market and its relationship with the market index [31]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The net inflow of northbound capital shows the flow of foreign capital into the A - share market [33]. - **Capital Cost**: The SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates reflect the short - term capital cost in the market [39]. 5. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The turnover rates of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market value) reflect the trading activity of different indexes [42][45]. - **Public Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: The positions of public offering hybrid funds reflect the investment sentiment of institutional investors [47]. 6. Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: The dividend yields of index futures and the ten - year treasury yield show the relationship between the return of the stock market and the bond market [51]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate reflects the exchange rate situation between the two currencies [53]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The new account openings are tracked against the Shanghai Composite Index, reflecting the relationship between new investors entering the market and the market index [54]. - **Newly Established Fund Scale**: The scale changes of newly established stock - based, hybrid, and bond - based funds reflect the development of the fund market [56][58][60].