交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：债市整体窄幅波动，长券表现稍好；国债期货主力合约多数下滑，30年期主力合约跌0.11%；银行间市场资金面宽松无虞，存款类机构隔夜回 购利率小降并持稳于1.31%附近。万科债券多数下跌，"22万科04"、"21万科06"跌超2%。机构称，央行重启买卖国债等大事件陆续落定，债市情绪经 历一波回暖后，随着消息面趋于平稳，短期或进入僵持阶段。 5、盘面：TS主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多；TF主力在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上，偏多； T主力与在20日线上方运行， 20日线向上， 偏多。 6、主力持仓：TS主力净多，多增。TF主力净多，多增。T主力净多，多减 。 7、预期： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年10月27日-10月31日 一．回顾与展望 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 本周01合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为80000元/吨，周五收盘价为80780元/吨，周涨幅为0.97%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21080吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产12904吨，环比减少 2.04%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2881吨，环比减少0.34%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产3247 吨，环比增加0.62%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2048吨，环比增加1.59%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年9月碳酸锂需求量为116801实物吨，环比增加12.28%,预测下月需求量为123198 实 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中美贸易谈判初步协议，豆粕震荡回升 （豆粕周报10.27-10.31） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回升，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 谈判达成初步协议 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期转淡，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏弱，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量维持高 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.27-10.31) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行消化消息，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶60.88美元，周跌0.91%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于 每桶64.58美元，周跌0.52%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至463.6元/桶，周跌0.28%。周初对俄能源制裁影响部分消退，原油保持高位震荡 运行不过周中OPEC+将继续增加原油产量的消息以及投资者对供应过剩的担忧导致油价承压下跌。两位OPEC+代表表示，由沙特阿拉伯主导 的该组织目前计划讨论在12月连续第三个月将产量上调13.7万桶/日，部分压制油价，此外中美领导人会面同 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕缺乏指引，跟随豆粕震荡回升 （菜粕周报10.27-10.31） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加上 中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差132，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方但方向向下。中性 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影响震荡回落，加上近期中加贸易关 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为11.6%，环比增加0.17个百分点，低于 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume, mainly affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price remained firm, the nickel iron price continued to decline, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Views and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price declined, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes** - Nickel ore prices (red clay nickel ore with different grades) remained unchanged compared to last week. The price of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate also remained unchanged. The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same, while the high - nickel iron price decreased by 0.53%. The price of electrolytic nickel (Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price) decreased, and the 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 0.36% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Conditions** - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and the freight remained the same as last week. As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.26%. The imported nickel ore volume in September 2025 decreased by 3.66% month - on - month but increased by 33.91% year - on - year. The northern Philippines had a tender with a firm price, and the rainy season in Surigao was approaching [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions** - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume. In the long - term, the supply and demand will both increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary materials in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volume also changed, with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports in September 2025 compared to the previous month. The LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][26][30]. - **Nickel Iron Market Conditions** - The nickel iron price declined. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The nickel iron import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in September 2025 was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Conditions** - The 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week. In September 2025, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with an increase in the 300 - series production. The import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the national stainless - steel inventory increased by 370 tons [59][65][71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales** - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%. In September 2025, the total battery production was 151.2 GWh, and the power battery loading volume was 76.0 GWh [75][78]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. During the price decline this week, there was obvious position - increasing, and position - reducing occurred around 120,000. The MACD direction was not clear, and the KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area [81]. 4. Industry Chain Sorting Summary - **Fundamental View** - Nickel ore: Neutral, with stable quotes, flat freight, and the approaching rainy season. - Nickel iron: Neutral, with a stable - to - decreasing price and a certain decline in the cost line. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish, with the long - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged and continuous inventory build - up at home and abroad. - Stainless - steel: Neutral, with a slight increase in inventory. - New energy: Neutral, with good production data and a year - on - year increase in ternary battery loading [84]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].

证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年10月27日-10月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为4708元/吨,周五收盘价为4701元/吨，周跌幅为0.14% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨,环比增加4.70%;本周样本企 业产能利用率为78.26%,环比增加0.02个百分点;电石法企业产量32.925万吨,环比增加4.10%,乙 烯法企业产量14.771万吨,环比减少1.76%;本周供给压力有所增加;下周预计检修有所减少，预 计排产少量增加。 | 类 别 | 标 指 | 现 | 值 | 前 | | 值 | 涨 | 跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | --- | ...