供需持续改善，盘面重心上移 研究结论 碳酸锂期货 碳酸锂期货月报 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1091号 完稿时间:2025年08月07日 | 分析师： | 胡毓秀 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种： | 碳酸锂 | | 从业资格证号： | F03105325 | | 投资咨询资格： | Z0021337 | | TEL： | 0575-85226759 | | E-mail： | huyuxiu@dyqh.info | 重要提示： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的 观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的 投资建议。大越期货不会因为关注、收到或阅 读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风 险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上 市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性 进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种相关特性及 潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关 推荐，不构成 对任何主体进行或不进行某项行 为的建议或意见，不得将本报告的任何内容据 以作为大越期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情 况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的任何作为 或不作为，大越期货不承担任何责任。 请详细阅读后文免责声 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：山西超产检查扰动不断，区域资源有偏紧预期。市场情绪逐步回归，下游接货谨慎，炼焦 煤涨价氛围有所降温，线上竞拍涨势趋缓，但考虑目前煤矿库存压力较小，从而挺价意愿较强，且因焦 煤期货再次偏强上涨，部分煤种报价仍在小幅上行；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1090，基差-131；现货贴水期货；偏空 每日观点 焦炭： 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨全面落地，焦企开工维持高位，钢厂铁水产量也在高位波动，焦煤刚需依然 强劲。但目前钢焦企业补库节奏有所放缓，多数以按需采 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年8月7日 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22370，基差-10；中性。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3、库存：8月6日LME锌库存较上日减少3050吨至89225吨，8月6日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少432吨至14375吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线下运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、青岛地区未季节性去库 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14500， ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-07投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8472，基差66，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 1、基本面：StoneX：25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩下调70万吨，至304万吨。2025年5月底，24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖811.38万吨；销糖率72.69%（去年同期 66.17%）。2025年6月中国进口食糖42万吨，同比增加39万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计 11.57万吨，同比减少10.32万吨。中性。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6050，基差422（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至5月底24/25榨季工业库存304.83万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构小幅回升，但交易商仍担忧供应充足及季节性公用事业发电需求消 退将压制市场基本面，贸易商表示，尽管西北欧至新加坡的合规0.5%船燃套利窗口持续关闭，但8月预计 将有更多低硫调和组分从苏伊士以西的市场流入亚洲市场；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油406.42美元/吨，基差为173元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为504.5美元/吨，基差 为163元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - PTA: Recently, the macro atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and the cost - end support is insufficient. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity and lacks upward drivers. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase periodically. In August, the MEG fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that MEG will be mainly in a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - end and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: The news of Ineos reducing its load during the day boosted the market, and combined with the warming of the commodity atmosphere, the PTA futures market rose rapidly and finally closed up in a volatile manner. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was weak, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The mainstream suppliers offered August goods. There were transactions at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 09 contract for the middle and early August, and at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract for the late August, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4720. The suppliers' August goods were traded at a discount of 20 to the 09 contract. The goods in mid - September were traded at a premium of 0 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 21 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4675, the basis of the 09 contract is - 49, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main positions: Net short positions, and short positions increased [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the market transactions were okay. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and consolidated. The spot negotiation was at a premium of 78 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market was strong. Traders in the market actively participated in contract replenishment. In the afternoon, the basis of the far - month futures weakened. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was at 525 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the shipments during the day were traded at around 526 - 529 US dollars/ton. The inquiry intention in the market was okay. The Taiwan tender goods were traded at around 532 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3000 tons [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4493, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions, and short positions decreased [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA devices are planned to be overhauled in August, and the supply - demand expectation is improved [8]. - Bearish factors: From the demand side, at the end of the export rush + domestic off - season, the downward trend of terminal demand is certain [8]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差50，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight crude oil prices remained low. Trump's statement on sanctions against Russia will be decided after the envoy's meeting with Russian officials. The threat to India has not completely deterred India's purchases, and the oil price has shed its previous premium due to eased sentiment. Although the API inventory has significantly decreased, it has not significantly boosted the oil price. The market is waiting for more decisions on sanctions against Russia and the upcoming implementation of comprehensive reciprocal tariffs. The oil price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with a short - term range of 500 - 508, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours and will decide whether to sanction countries that purchase Russian oil after the US - Russia official meeting on Wednesday. Fed's Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two interest rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment, but it's also possible that there won't be two cuts, and more cuts are more likely. The base difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, while the EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th. As of August 5th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. As of July 29th, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3] 3.2 Recent News - The Kremlin is considering making concessions to Trump, possibly including an air cease - fire agreement with Ukraine to avoid "secondary sanctions." Trump threatened to impose heavy taxes on countries like India that purchase Russian oil and other commodities from Friday. The US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion in June, and the trade deficit with China shrank to the lowest in 21 years. In July, the US service - sector business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6] - **Likely to be Bearish**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has a tense trade relationship with other economies [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts are likely to drive up prices in the short term, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the long term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased by - 1.63%, - 1.70%, - 1.49%, and - 1.12% respectively [7] - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude decreased by - 2.14%, - 1.70%, - 0.81%, - 0.36%, and - 1.36% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st. The EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th, and the inventory in the Cushing area increased by 690,000 barrels in the same week [3] 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with an increase of 2,692 for WTI and 33,959 for Brent [3][18][19]