每日观点 纯碱： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1178元/吨，基差为-58元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.11万吨，较前一周增加2.39%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2603, control positions before the holiday, trade mainly within the day as the price moves around the 20 - day moving average [2] - For Stainless Steel 2603, control positions before the holiday and focus on intraday trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On February 11, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 139,360, up 6,010 from February 10; LME Nickel was 18,065, up 515; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 14,145, up 320. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 142,600, up 3,650, and cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in most regions remained unchanged [8] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 57,457 tons, with futures inventory at 51,274 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons and 4,398 tons respectively. On February 11, LME nickel inventory was 285,750 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 52,027 tons, a decrease of 12 tons [10][11] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons. On February 11, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 54,491 tons, an increase of 421 tons [15][16] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On February 11, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 64.5 dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1,037.61 yuan/nickel point, up 2.09 yuan [19] Stainless Steel Production Cost - Traditional production cost was 13,718 yuan, scrap steel production cost was 13,431 yuan, and low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 18,012 yuan [21] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 142,060 yuan/ton [24]

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月12日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 数据来源：SHFE 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24520，基差-65；中性。 3、库存：2月11日LME锌库存较上日减少1500吨至105250吨，2月11日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加8100吨至42335吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价16029，基差1284（05合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度12月预计期末库存835万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏多，净持仓多增，主力趋势不明朗；偏多。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。中性。 6：预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which has put pressure on the price of US soybeans. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8410, the basis is 300, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and up 14.7% year - on - year. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2] - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8910, the basis is 4, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2,200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and up 46% year - on - year. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [3] - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 789, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and down 44% year - on - year. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The supply side shows a decline in production and imports, while the demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 131,220 - 145,100 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. Summary According to the Directory Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in February 2026 will be 81,930 tons, a 16.31% decrease compared to January 2026 [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,032 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,243 tons, a 2.39% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 139,374 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05%, resulting in a loss of 5,254 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 136,032 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 5,221 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On February 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 1,340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a 7.53% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,450 tons, a 9.25% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 on the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. Fundamental/Positioning Data - **Market Overview**: The report provides price data of various lithium compounds and related products, including lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries. It shows the price changes, such as the price of 6% lithium spodumene increasing by 0.16% to 1,900 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remaining unchanged at 137,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: It presents detailed supply - demand data of the lithium carbonate industry, including production, import, export, inventory, and consumption. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in January 2026 was 97,900 tons, a 1.31% decrease compared to the previous month; the monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, an 8.77% increase compared to the previous month [15]. - **Cost - Profit**: The report analyzes the cost - profit situation of various lithium compounds, such as the cost - profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and the cost - profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder [43][45]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises [51]. - **Demand**: It analyzes the demand situation of different application areas, such as power batteries, energy storage batteries, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles, including production, sales, and export data [53][55][57][65][69][76].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7.1万吨，环比有所减少13.41%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6万吨，环比减少20.00%.需求持续低迷.多晶 硅库存为34.1万吨，处于中性水平，硅片亏损，电池片盈利，组件盈利；有机 硅库存为47200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为2570元/吨，处于盈利状态， 其综合开工率为64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为 6.74万吨，处于高位，进口利润为169元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为 672.61元/吨，再生铝开工率为58.3%，还比减少1.01%,处于高位。 成本端来看,新 ...

表 1：期权行情 | 看涨期权 | | | 看跌期权 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | | 豆一 | 57.92% | 棕榈油 | 21.03% | | 烧碱 | 50.00% | 焦煤 | 10.98% | | 铅 | 21.00% | 菜油 | 10.10% | | 原油 | 20.04% | 纯碱 | 9.00% | | 玉米淀粉 | 16.67% | 工业硅 | 8.92% | | 聚丙烯 | 15.70% | 锌 | 7.46% | | PTA | 13.11% | 尿素 | 7.32% | | 白糖 | 12.12% | 螺纹钢 | 6.87% | | 棉花 | 11.04% | 红枣 | 6.12% | | 液化石油气 | 9.59% | 生猪 | 4.92% | | 看涨期权 | | | 看跌期权 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | | 豆一 | 57.92% | 棕榈油 | 21.03% | | 烧碱 | 50.00% | 焦煤 | 10.98% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the overall demand is currently below the historical average. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price trends and the trend of the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [13][14]. - The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The refinery reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is currently below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 contract oscillating between 3309 - 3377 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price and Spread**: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and basis of various asphalt futures contracts, as well as some inter - month spreads [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [9][17]. - **Production and Sales**: The weekly output of sample enterprises was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The weekly shipment volume was 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% [17]. - **Profit**: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 1040.00% month - on - month, while the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit increased by 5.51% month - on - month [17]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand is currently below the historical average, with varying degrees of decline in the开工率 of different types of asphalt [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC market are currently bearish, mainly due to increased supply pressure, weak demand, and cost - related factors. The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4920 - 5022. [8][10][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a 0.53% month - on - month increase. The weekly capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a 0.34% increase, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a 0.62% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, expected maintenance is to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production. [8] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin all decreased compared to the previous week, but were still higher than historical average levels. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive, so current demand may remain low. [8] - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, with a 11.00% decrease in losses. The profit of the ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a 91.60% increase. The double - ton spread was 1,803.67 yuan/ton, a 1.00% decrease. Scheduled production may be under pressure. [9] - **Other Factors**: On February 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 151 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 0.85% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 1.40%. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main positions were net short, with an increase in short positions. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a table of yesterday's market overview, including futures closing prices, some monthly spreads, weekly inventory, weekly downstream operating rates, weekly profits, weekly costs, electricity - ethylene spreads, and registered warehouse receipt quantities, along with their changes compared to the previous period. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents a graph of the base price trend, showing the relationship between the base price, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2026. [17][18] - **Futures Market Analysis**: The report shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract in 2026, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: A graph of the main contract spreads from 2024 to 2025 is presented, including 1 - 9 spreads and 5 - 9 spreads. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The report includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production volume trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from multiple years. [26][27][29][30] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production from multiple years. [40][41][43] - **Demand Trend**: The report presents the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin in the PVC market from multiple years. It also includes the cost, profit, production volume, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real estate - related indicators and some macro - economic indicators. [45][46][48] - **Inventory**: The report provides the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days in the PVC market from multiple years. [57][58] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, ethylene FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread in the ethylene method from multiple years. [59][60] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the PVC monthly supply - demand balance sheet from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand differences. [62][63]