Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices continued to be weak. At the beginning of the week, trading was light, but as prices fell further, trading improved. The ore price remained stable, and the ferronickel price increased slightly, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless steel inventories rose, and the market is looking forward to the "Golden September and Silver October" to boost consumption and reduce inventories. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year-on-year, limiting overall demand. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless steel price decreased. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping cost was firm, and the ferronickel price increased slightly, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless steel inventories rose, and the market should focus on consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October". The conclusion is that stainless steel 2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍** - **基本面**: Last week, nickel prices were weak. Ore prices were stable, ferronickel prices rose slightly, and stainless steel inventories increased. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery installed capacity decreased year - on - year. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. - **基差**: The spot price was 120,550, and the basis was 940, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **库存**: LME inventory was 209,748 (+150), and SHFE warrants were 22,552 (-36), showing a bearish signal [2]. - **盘面**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - **主力持仓**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **结论**: SHFE nickel 2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. **不锈钢** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable, shipping costs were firm, and ferronickel prices rose slightly. Stainless steel inventories increased, and the market should focus on "Golden September and Silver October" consumption [4]. - **基差**: The average stainless steel price was 13,775, and the basis was 1025, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **库存**: Futures warrants were 101,925 (-16,715), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **盘面**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **结论**: Stainless steel 2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. **多空因素** - **利多因素**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 [7]. - **利空因素**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decrease in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货价格**: On August 22, the SHFE nickel main contract was 119,610 (-220), LME nickel was 14,975 (+35), and the stainless steel main contract was 12,750 (-45). - **现货价格**: On August 22, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,550 (-550), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 (-500), 1 imported nickel was 119,650 (-600), and nickel beans were 121,700 (-600). Cold - rolled stainless steel prices also decreased slightly [12]. **镍仓单、库存** - As of August 22, SHFE nickel inventory was 26,943 tons, with futures inventory at 22,552 tons (a decrease of 19 tons and an increase of 411 tons respectively). LME inventory was 209,748 (+150), and SHFE warrants were 22,552 (-36). The total inventory was 232,300 (+114) [14][15]. **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On August 22, Wuxi inventory was 61.46 tons, Foshan inventory was 315,400 tons, and national inventory was 1,091,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons). The inventory of the 300 series was 658,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons). Futures warrants were 101,925 (-16,715) [18][19]. **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿**: The price of laterite nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars/wet ton, remaining unchanged. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained stable. - **镍铁**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 930 yuan/nickel point (+1), and the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3420 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [22]. **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost was 12,919, the scrap steel production cost was 13,587, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,519 [24]. **镍进口成本测算** - The imported price was converted to 120,957 yuan/ton [27].

橡胶：回落做多 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（8.18—8.22） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场小幅回落，价格区间震荡 基本面因素偏多支撑价格 回落做多 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15850 | 16020 | 15470 | 15625 | -1.76% | | NR2510 | 12710 | 12790 | 12350 | 12510 | -1.57% | | BR2510 | 11835 | 11980 | 11355 | 11660 | -1.35% | 本周市场小幅回落，未能突破震荡区间平台上沿。但价格在下方有支撑，多头 形态保持良好，后市有望延续多头格局。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14650 元/吨，相比上周下跌 100 元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Spiral Steel and Hot Rolled Coil Morning Report (2025-8-25) [1] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **For Threaded Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness among traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in 35 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Expecting high - level oscillations considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory in 33 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Also expecting high - level oscillations due to weakened market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. Group 4: Factors Analysis For Threaded Steel (Rebar) - **Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory levels, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative Factors**: Continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [3] For Hot - Rolled Coil - **Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand entering the seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [8] Group 5: Data Indicators Price - related - Threaded steel spot price: 3300 [2] - Hot - rolled coil spot price: 3420 [6] - Other price data includes Southeast Asian prices for threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet price, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [15][18][23] Production - related - Data on blast furnace operating rate, threaded steel short - process electric furnace operating rate, threaded steel weekly output, and hot - rolled coil weekly output are presented [29][32][35] Profit - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil disk profit, threaded steel blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit, and hot - rolled coil blast furnace estimated profit are provided [41][44][46] Inventory - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil social and steel mill inventories are included [52][55][58] Consumption - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption, apparent consumption year - on - year, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [64][69][73] Market - related - Data on building materials trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction, and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement price are provided [74][77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term supply and demand are both increasing, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The upside of nickel prices is limited, while the downside is supported by costs. Maintain a sideways view on Shanghai nickel, and consider going long when the price retraces to the cost line during the peak seasons. For stainless steel, industry demand remains weak, and steel enterprises adjust short - term changes through production and inventory. The pattern of wide - range sideways movement at the bottom is hard to change [67][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - Not elaborated in the report 3.2全球供需平衡 - From 2020 to 2025E, global primary nickel supply and demand are both increasing. In 2025E, primary nickel supply is expected to be 3690000 tons, and demand is expected to be 3580000 tons, showing a supply - surplus situation [3] 3.3新能源产业链 3.3.1中国新能源汽车产销数据 - In July 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, cumulative production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 39.2% and 38.5% [9][10] 3.3.2动力电池 - In July 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. Sales were 127.2GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [14] 3.3.3硫酸镍价格稳中有升 - In July 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 194700 tons, and metal output was 42800 tons. In August 2025, it is expected to be 43000 metal tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 27200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week, and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 28250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [17] 3.4不锈钢产业链 3.4.1镍矿 - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, a 10.11% increase. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5005800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 43.63% [20][23] 3.4.2镍铁 - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight increase. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 22900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 836000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [26][29][32] 3.4.3不锈钢 - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton on average in four regions this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel output was 3.2108 million tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a 1.28 - million - ton increase [40][45][48] 3.5纯镍市场 3.5.1电解镍产量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel output was 36151 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In August 2025, it is estimated to be 37760 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.45% and a year - on - year increase of 33.38% [56] 3.5.2精炼镍进出口量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38164.223 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 124.36% and a year - on - year increase of 798.94%. Exports were 15545.572 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.27% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [59] 3.5.3库存情况 - LME inventory decreased by 1914 tons to 209748 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons to 26943 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel was 39937 tons, a 1349 - ton decrease from last week [62]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic sales of sugar are good, the spot price is firm, and the internal market trend is stronger than the external market. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates upward with a slowly rising center of gravity. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [5][8] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: SCA Brasil predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, the basis is 360 (01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [5] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position increases, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [5] - **Expectation**: Due to good domestic sales, the spot price of sugar is firm, and the internal market trend is stronger than the external market. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates upward with a slowly rising center of gravity. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [5][8] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.04 million tons. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will increase by 5.3% to 199.17 million tons, and USDA predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with consumption increasing by 1.4% and a surplus of 11.397 million tons. However, the domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is narrowing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 [6][8] - **Price**: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] - **Import and tariff**: Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the additional import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the additional import tariff on raw sugar outside the quota [8] 5. Position Data - No information provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trades are recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4] - The basis is - 975 with a spot price of 14,650, showing a bearish signal [4] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4] - The price is running below the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4] 2. Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (not for delivery) declined on August 22 [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - The Qingdao region inventory has changed slightly recently [17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but declined month - on - month [29] - The tire industry's exports have rebounded [32] 3. Multi - empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] 4. Basis - The basis weakened on August 21 [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 fluctuated slightly within the range of 5,650 - 5,700. Although imports have increased significantly recently, the impact on the spot market is not significant, and the spot price remains firm. The futures price has been at a discount to the spot price for a long time, already reflecting the bearish expectations in advance. Without major negative factors, there is limited room for further price decline. Instead, the bearish expectations are gradually being repaired, and the probability of the price rising to 5,800 has increased [5]. - Due to strong domestic sales and a firm spot price, the domestic market of white sugar has outperformed the international market. The main contract of Zhengzhou white sugar 01 has been oscillating upwards, with its center of gravity slowly rising. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 fluctuated slightly within the range of 5,650 - 5,700. Imports have increased significantly recently, but the impact on the spot market is not significant, and the spot price remains firm. The futures price has been at a discount to the spot price for a long time, already reflecting the bearish expectations in advance. Without major negative factors, there is limited room for further price decline. Instead, the bearish expectations are gradually being repaired, and the probability of the price rising to 5,800 has increased [5]. - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. 2. Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: Strong domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose [7]. - Bearish factors: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import pressure [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have predicted a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar - cane planting area in China is expected to be 1.44 million hectares in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Costs**: The refined and duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw - sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the cost was in the range of 5,600 - 5,650 yuan per ton [44]. 5. Position Data No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA futures market rose significantly due to unplanned maintenance of some plants this week. The supply - demand outlook has improved, and the spot basis has strengthened. In the short term, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, the processing margin still needs improvement. Attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of the Hengli Huizhou plant and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. MEG - In late August, the arrival of ethylene glycol at ports is scarce, and the pick - up at major ports has improved recently. Port inventories will continue to decline in the next two weeks. Starting from early September, the arrival of foreign - sourced goods will increase. The short - term trend of ethylene glycol is expected to be slightly strong, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long run. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders. Some major suppliers sold goods. August goods were traded at 09 + 15 - 30, with prices ranging from 4850 - 4890. Mid - September goods were traded at 09 + 20 - 30, and some at 01 + 15. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 22 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4865, and the 01 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders. Some major suppliers sold goods. August goods were traded at 09 + 15 - 30, with prices ranging from 4850 - 4890. Mid - September goods were traded at 09 + 20 - 30, and some at 01 + 15. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 22 [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4512, and the 01 - contract basis is 38, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 50.05 tons, a 2.69 - ton decrease from the previous period, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, which is expected to improve supply - demand. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, there are expectations of increased demand. The 200 - million - ton Yisheng Hainan plant is under maintenance, and the 250 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant has unexpectedly shut down [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides PTA supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides ethylene glycol supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory data [12]. 3.5 Price - The report presents historical price data of PET bottle chips, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and other price - related information from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The report shows inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various polyester products from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][51]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - The report provides historical data on the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [53][55][57]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - The report presents historical data on the production margins of PTA, MEG (including different production methods), polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][63][66].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （8.18-8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 从基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构继续走弱，高硫燃料油市场仍有压力。具体来看：受短期内套利船货供 应充裕担忧及需求疲软影响，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构进一步走弱。尽管东西方套利经济性仍不可行，但8月 预计新加坡将接收来自西方的约280-290万吨的低硫燃料油套利货量，高于7月的230-240万吨。不过交易商预计 随着市场转向9月下半月船货交易，低硫燃料油市场基本面将逐步企稳。 高硫方面，尽管船期紧张支撑下游船加油市场需求，但交易商担心中东夏季高峰过后发电需求下滑可能加 剧新加坡地区的供应压力。当前新加坡高硫燃料油在浮仓及固 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level, with weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,570 - 8,920 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous recovery overall, with weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,100 - 52,710 [7][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease compared to the previous week, with continuous weak demand [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory was 249,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory was 54,300 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 512,100 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,174 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Market: The spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease compared to the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 174,100 tons, a 12.07% decrease compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components shows different trends in production, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,590 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 12,410 yuan/ton [9]. - Market: The basis of the 11 - contract was - 2,405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous values, and there were also corresponding changes in inventory and production data [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous values, and there were also corresponding changes in prices, inventories, and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also presents various data trends and analyses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization, cost, supply - demand balance, and downstream product trends [20][24][31]