交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为31.8792%，环比减少 1.44个百分点，全国样本企业出货30.88万吨，环比减少6.79%,样本企业产量为53.2 万吨，环比减少4.31%,样本企业装置检修量预估为74.5万吨，环比增加22.53%,本周 炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为29.7%，环比减少0.06个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%，环比减少0.43个百分点，低于历史 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term market will maintain a range - bound oscillation influenced by soybean meal [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the price difference of the 2601 contract, also fluctuated slightly [17][19]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From November 3rd to 11th, the trading volume of soybean meal ranged from 4.69 to 31.41 million tons, and the trading price was between 3070 - 3092 yuan/ton. Rapeseed meal had no trading volume during this period, and the trading price was between 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 438 - 479 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price data**: From November 3rd to 11th, the price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was between 2491 - 2549 yuan/ton, the price of the 2605 contract was between 2378 - 2428 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From October 31st to November 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745 [16]. - **Aquatic product data**: The price of aquatic fish decreased slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed in [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal View and Strategy - **Fundamentals**: The rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and with uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term market will maintain a range - bound oscillation influenced by soybean meal. It is considered neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2610, with a basis of 110, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Main position**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, the rapeseed meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern. Future developments should be monitored [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coking coal, the supply is tight with limited mine capacity release. Downstream replenishment has been active recently, but the mid - trading sector is cautious due to high prices. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth, while negative factors are slower procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [3][5]. - For coke, production is limited by high - cost pressure and environmental policies. Terminal demand is weakening, and the price is in a situation where it is difficult to rise or fall, expected to remain stable in the short term. Positive factors are rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while negative factors are squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mine capacity release is limited, supply is tight. Downstream replenishment is active, but mid - traders are cautious. Market sentiment has declined slightly [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 217, spot premium over futures [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal has changed from long to short [3]. - Expectation: Downstream coking enterprises' production utilization rate is stable, but some have slowed down replenishment due to high coal prices. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke production is limited by high - cost pressure and environmental policies [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 5, spot discount to futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short and the short position is increasing [7]. - Expectation: Coke production is limited, terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Price - On November 11, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, along with price changes for some varieties [10]. - On November 11, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, along with price changes for some varieties [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, with increasing geopolitical concerns. The US Navy's largest aircraft carrier arrived near Latin America, and Russia's energy exports are expected to decline significantly at the end of the month. India, one of the largest buyers, has reduced its share, which supports crude oil. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger. SC2512 is expected to operate in the 465 - 475 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The Republican - controlled House of Representatives is expected to vote on a compromise plan to end the 42 - day government shutdown. Although the US imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Russian oil shipments from ports remained stable in early November, but India has reduced its Russian crude oil purchases in December [3]. - **Basis**: On November 11, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37/barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.33/barrel. The basis was 29.51 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending October 31, US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels. As of November 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of November 4, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **India's Crude Oil Purchase**: India's five major core refiners have not placed any orders for Russian crude oil for next month. This change occurred after Trump doubled the tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% in August and sanctioned two major Russian oil producers last month [5]. - **Ukrainian Attack on Russian Refinery**: Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian oil refinery in the Volga region this month. The Saratov refinery, which can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day, has been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year [5]. - **Nigeria's Oil and Gas Production**: With the approval of 43 oil field development plans this year, Nigeria is expected to add 1.7 billion barrels of oil production and 770 billion cubic feet of natural gas production, involving an investment of about $20 billion [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, the US - Russia talks are cancelled and sanctions against Russia increase, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while there is a risk of increased supply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $64.06 to $65.16, an increase of 1.72%; WTI crude oil increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; SC crude oil decreased from 460.2 to 459.2, a decrease of 0.22%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.63 to $64.99, an increase of 0.56% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $62.60 to $64.39, an increase of 2.86%; WTI increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; Oman crude oil decreased from $65.64 to $65.37, a decrease of 0.41%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $60.87 to $60.62, a decrease of 0.41%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $65.62 to $65.46, a decrease of 0.24% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from July 22 to September 23 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from August 26 to October 28 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which has affected the export of new US soybeans and put pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,442, with a basis of 204, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous level and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,050 - 8,450. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,732, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous level and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 8,900. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as above, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,126, with a basis of 351, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous level and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No detailed data provided, only mentioned. [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year increase. [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year decrease. [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year increase. [4] - **Domestic Total Inventory of Oils and Fats**: No detailed data provided, only mentioned. [23] Demand - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Oil**: The report shows the apparent consumption data of soybean oil from 2015 - 2025. [14] - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Meal**: The report shows the apparent consumption data of soybean meal from 2015 - 2025. [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures oscillate and decline, closing with a negative candlestick, a shrinking trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - position reduction. The market may experience short - term oscillatory consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ declined but remained in the strong zone, and the trend indicator showed an increase in bullish power and a decrease in bearish power, with the bullish power having an expanding advantage. The Shanghai zinc ZN2512 is expected to oscillate and rebound [2][19] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, consumption was 1171700 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc plate production was 9088500 tons, consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons [2] 2. Basis - The spot price was 22810, and the basis was + 135 [2] 3. Inventory - On November 11, LME zinc inventory increased by 400 tons to 35300 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 649 tons to 70518 tons [2] 4. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 11 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, details such as previous settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest changes were provided. The total trading volume was 119018 lots, the total trading amount was 1352853.18, and the total open interest was 226896 lots with a decrease of 1204 lots [3] 5. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 11 - For zinc concentrate, domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2800 yuan/metal ton, and imported zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/ton. For zinc ingots, 0 zinc prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang were in different ranges and had price increases [4] 6. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 30 - November 10, 2025) - The total inventory in major markets was 16.32 million tons on October 30, 16.23 million tons on November 3, 16.16 million tons on November 6, and 16.15 million tons on November 10, showing a decreasing trend [5] 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 11 - The total zinc warrants were 70518 tons, with an increase of 649 tons. Different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different warrant amounts and changes [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 11 - LME zinc inventory in different global warehouses had various changes, with a total inventory of 35300 tons and an increase of 400 tons [7] 9. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 11 - Zinc concentrate prices in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, Hechi, etc. were mostly 18350 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 60 yuan/ton [8] 10. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 11 - 0 zinc ingot prices of different brands such as Hunan Weibahai, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. all increased by 90 yuan/ton [11] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 50.96 million tons, and the actual production was 52.43 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production in November was 52.23 million tons [14] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 11 - For domestic zinc concentrate with a 50% grade, the processing fee in most regions was in the range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/metal ton, and for imported zinc concentrate with a 48% grade, it was 100 US dollars/ton [16] 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 11 - For the zn2512 contract, details of the top 20 futures companies' trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes compared to the previous trading day were provided. The total trading volume was 127087 lots with a decrease of 31763 lots, the total long - position volume was 74152 lots with a decrease of 2211 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71398 lots with a decrease of 1149 lots [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel Futures (沪镍2512)**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and test the cost support. The overall fundamental situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term, although there are some bullish factors in the basis [2]. - **Stainless Steel Futures (不锈钢2601)**: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is neutral, with a bullish basis and a bearish trend on the chart [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **Nickel**: On November 11, 2025, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 15,025 US dollars, down 75 US dollars. Spot SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 yuan, up 100 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel main contract was 12,520 yuan on November 11, 2025, down 45 yuan from the previous day. The average price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions showed mixed trends [12]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: As of November 11, LME nickel inventory was 253,308 tons, down 96 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 32,292 tons, down 241 tons. The total inventory was 285,600 tons, down 337 tons [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of November 11, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 71,735 tons, down 296 tons. As of November 7, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.034 million tons, up 0.29 million tons month - on - month, with the 300 - series inventory at 639,500 tons, down 12,400 tons month - on - month [19][20]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore with different grades and the freight rates from the Philippines to Chinese ports remained stable on November 11, 2025. The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 2.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,716 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,894 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,544 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import**: The calculated import price of nickel was 120,492 yuan per ton [28]. 3.4 Factors Affecting Market - **Bullish Factors**: The nickel ore price is firm, providing cost support. There is new nickel production capacity coming on stream, and at the same time, some production is cut, so the short - term output may decline [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The inventory at home and abroad continues to accumulate [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral supply - demand fundamental situation, with some disturbances on the supply side such as smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. The manufacturing PMI in China dropped to 49.0% in October. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, like the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances include smelting enterprise production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies. China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, indicating a slowdown in production activities; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86815, with a basis of 185, showing a premium over the futures; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 11, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 136250 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1105 tons to 115035 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long and the long position increased; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [22]. Other Information - **Spot**: The document provides information on the spot including location, mid - price, change, and inventory details, but specific data is not fully disclosed [6]. - **Exchange Inventory**: Information about exchange inventory is mentioned but specific details are not provided [11]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [16].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21620，基差-45，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌239吨至 113335吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪好转，铝价偏强运行 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The overall supply is expected to be abundant, with high production from alkali plants and the anticipated commissioning of Yuanyang Phase II before the end of the year. The downstream demand is facing challenges, such as potential disruptions in the supply of float glass and a continuous decline in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short - term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: High production from alkali plants, expected commissioning of Yuanyang Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. There are potential supply disruptions in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is on a declining trend. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,215 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 45 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171.42 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,226 | 1,170 | - 56 | | Current Value | 1,215 | 1,170 | - 45 | | Change Rate | - 0.90% | 0.00% | - 19.64% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in Fundamental Analysis - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.68 million tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 41.48 million tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in Production Capacity**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual commissioning of 1 billion tons [21]. 3.7 Demand in Fundamental Analysis - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.91 million tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Inventory in Fundamental Analysis The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171.42 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (million tons) | Production (million tons) | Operating Rate | Import (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Net Import (million tons) | Apparent Supply (million tons) | Total Demand (million tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (million tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3,035 | 2,715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2,577 | 2,517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3,087 | 2,583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2,474 | 2,523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3,247 | 2,804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2,679 | 2,631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3,317 | 2,757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2,655 | 2,607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3,288 | 2,892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2,842 | 2,764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3,114 | 2,944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2,749 | 2,913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3,342 | 3,228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3,166 | 3,155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3,930 | 3,650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3,536 | 3,379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]