日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普对提前解雇鲍威尔改口，10 大城市新 房成交同比下降 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-23 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国总统特朗普表示无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔 特朗普对于提前解雇鲍威尔改口，希望美联储迅速降息，市场 风险偏好明显回升，美元指数反弹。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国总统特朗普：加密货币行业亟需明确的监管政策 能源化工（原油） 综 现货金价一度上涨至 3500 美金后高位回落最终收跌，市场投机 热度有所降温，末日期权引发的行情也结束了，特朗普改口称 无意解雇鲍威尔，海外市场风险偏好回升，黄金回调。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 IMF 下调 2025 年全球经济增长预期 报 4 月 22 日股指情绪偏强，市场小幅放量上涨，沪指站上 3300 点。 近期内需政策的预期逐渐走强，市场交易重点有望延续。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 10 大城市新房成交同比下降 18.5% 钢价震荡回落，市场对海外贸易风险提升的敏感度依然较高。 仍在需求走弱预期和现实相对坚挺之间博弈，关税风险逐渐体 现为冷轧的走弱，但向上游传导仍需时间，钢价震荡加剧。 有色金属（多晶硅 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普再度呼吁美联储降息，国内 4 月 LPR 按兵不动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-22 宏观策略（黄金） 美豆种植率快于市场预期，USDA 周度出口检验报告符合预期。 国内进口大豆成本变动不大，供需错配导致近三周油厂豆粕库 存连续大幅下降，现货短期表现坚挺。 特朗普再度呼吁美联储降息 金价涨超 3%持续创新高，特朗普对鲍威尔和降息的言论增加了 市场对美联储独立性的担忧，叠加贸易战的持续，美国经济衰 退风险增加，股债汇三杀的情况下黄金获得资金持续流入 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国贸易代表：与印度敲定互惠贸易谈判框架 综 特朗普再度抨击鲍威尔，批评鲍威尔降息速度太慢，引发市场 继续剧烈波动，风险偏好走低，美元维持弱势。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 4 月 LPR 按兵不动 报 LPR 按兵不动，宽货币预期下修导致市场调整。展望后市，利 多是长期的、确定的，利空只是短暂的扰动。 农产品（豆粕） 美豆种植率快于预期 有色金属（碳酸锂） 3 月中国锂辉石进口 53.45 万实物吨，环比 2 月减少 6% 短期建议关注仓单变动节奏、以及 5 月下游排产情况，策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power industry is "Bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese power industry is undergoing dual transformations of clean - energy transition and restructuring of supply - demand structure. The proportion of non - fossil energy generation capacity and power generation is increasing, but coal - fired power remains crucial in the short term. On the demand side, power consumption shows characteristics of slowing growth and structural differentiation. Power supply - demand balance may become the norm, and the construction of a new power system needs to be accelerated. The carbon peak time of the power sector depends on the growth rate of wind and solar power generation, with different peak times and values under optimistic and conservative scenarios [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Power Industry Supply - Demand Pattern - **Power Consumption Pattern**: It is shifting from "quantity expansion" to "quality restructuring". There are four structural characteristics on the demand side: kinetic energy conversion driven by industrial upgrading, a revolution in form triggered by the digital economy, consumption upgrading spurred by new urbanization, and rigid demand increments contributed by power substitution. High - tech and equipment manufacturing, digital economy - related industries, and household consumption are the main drivers of power demand growth [17][18][27] - **Power Supply**: The power system is facing challenges such as new - energy consumption, system flexibility reshaping, and cross - regional resource allocation. Wind and solar power are driving the low - carbon transformation of the power structure, but they also face challenges in consumption and system regulation. The construction of power transmission projects is important for cross - regional resource allocation, but there are still problems in transmission efficiency, technology coordination, and market mechanisms. Coal - fired power, pumped - storage power, and new - type energy storage are important means of system regulation [42][43][54] - **Market - based Transactions**: The power market has formed a multi - level system with medium - and long - term transactions as the mainstay, supplemented by spot - market pilots, auxiliary - service markets, and green - power trading. The scale of market - based trading electricity is increasing, but there are still provincial barriers, and the trading scale of the spot market is relatively small. The full entry of new - energy power into the market will further optimize power - resource allocation [78] 3.2 When Can China's Power Sector Reach Carbon Peak? - **Power Demand Forecast**: By 2030, the total social power consumption is expected to reach 13.5 trillion kWh. The power consumption of the primary industry will maintain an annual growth rate of over 6%, mainly driven by the mechanization of animal husbandry. The secondary - industry power consumption will grow at an annual rate of about 3% - 4%, with high - tech and equipment manufacturing leading the growth. The tertiary - industry power consumption will grow at an annual rate of about 8% - 9%, mainly driven by the growth of new - energy vehicle charging and other factors. The power consumption of urban and rural residents will grow at an annual rate of 5% - 8%, mainly due to consumption upgrading and energy substitution [90][105][120] - **Power Supply Structure Forecast**: In the long term, clean energy, especially wind and solar power, will become the main sources of power generation. Coal - fired power will gradually be phased out or converted into emergency backup power. By 2030, the installed capacity of wind power is expected to reach 9 - 11 billion kilowatts, and that of solar power is expected to reach 18 - 25 billion kilowatts under different scenarios. The installed capacity of hydropower will reach about 4.3 billion kilowatts, and the power generation will reach 1.7 trillion kWh. The installed capacity of coal - fired power is expected to peak around 2030, and its function will gradually transform [137][138][154] - **Thermal - Power Carbon - Emission Intensity Forecast**: By 2030, the carbon - emission intensity of coal - fired power is expected to drop to about 770 g/kWh, and that of gas - fired power is expected to drop to about 310 g/kWh. Without considering the heating part, under the conservative scenario of wind and solar power growth, the total carbon emissions of the power sector will peak after 2030, with a peak value exceeding 4.8 billion tons; under the optimistic scenario, it will peak in 2025, with a peak value of about 4.6 billion tons [3]

周度报告——商品期货 商品风格轮动周报： 关税风云持续，鲍威尔表态鹰派 [T报ab告le_日Ra期nk：] 2025 年 4 月 21 日 [Table_Summary] ★商品市场概述 2025 年 4 月 18 日当周，涨幅靠前品种集中于贵金属、期债及农 产品，跌幅靠前品种集中于工业品板块。 重要事项：本报告版权归上海东证期货有限公司所有。未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文 中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成交易建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 有关分析师承诺，见本报告最后部分。并请阅读报告最后一页的免责声明。 ★风格轮动及品种间相对估值表现 周内，周期/成长风格轮动至空配成长；工业品/农产品风格轮 动至空配南华农产品；贵金属/工业品风格轮动至多配南华贵金 属；金/油比价轮动至多配金。 商 品 期 周内套利对表现相对最强的三个头寸分别为：PP-3*MA 主力合 约价差、菜油 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 4 月 21 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/18 当周）： 截至 4 月 18 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 14.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 22.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。4 月光伏玻璃价格继续上涨，本月 光伏玻璃厂家与二三线下游客户成交价格多为高价区间，与一线 下游客户成交多为低价区间，具体成交价格根据实际交易量而 定。与此同时，行业仍有下游客户采取先拿货月底再议价的方式。 能 源 上周光伏玻璃供给端产能保持稳定，一条产线引头子出玻璃，实 际产出有所增加。预计本周行业供给大致持平，基于行情转弱等 原因，行业内多条待投产线计划陆续推迟。 化 工 上周光伏玻璃行业走货有所转弱，下游需求退坡趋势明显，采购 节奏明显放缓。此外组件厂家仍有一定量光伏玻璃库存，拿货积 极性不高。本周仍要重点关注组件厂家订单情况，随着 531 政策 窗口临近，终端客户对高价组件接纳度降低，开始采取延迟拿货 方式，预计将对光伏玻璃需求构成一定负面影响。 上周行业库存由降转增，主要是下游需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polysilicon industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of polysilicon has significantly factored in the future weakening of its fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether the southwestern production capacity will resume production as scheduled during the wet season after the price decline, and whether there is a possibility of higher-than-expected wafer production scheduling from May to June. Before the large-scale generation of warehouse receipts, it is more reasonable to value the market with a premium delivery. Strategies suggest focusing on the positive spread opportunities of PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 and the opportunity to go long on PS2512 at low prices [5][27] Summary by Directory 1. Event Overview - This week, polysilicon futures dropped significantly. The main PS2506 contract fell 10%, closing at 37,615 yuan/ton, hitting a record low since listing. PS2507 and PS2511 closed at 36,180 and 35,830 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly declines of 11.8% and 10.9%. The positive spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2506 - PS2511 first widened significantly, with the monthly spreads reaching a maximum of 1,915 yuan/ton and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively, and then quickly narrowed to 1,435 yuan/ton and 1,785 yuan/ton [2][9] 2. Reasons for the Decline: Weak Fundamentals - Since mid - April, the photovoltaic rush - installation wave has gradually subsided, and the prices of downstream components, cells, and wafers have started to decline from their highs. The upstream and downstream inventories in the polysilicon segment are high. From March to April, wafer manufacturers mainly digested their existing raw material inventories and had low procurement enthusiasm. After the rush - installation wave, polysilicon prices began to fall [10] - In April, the polysilicon production schedule is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and in May, it is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons. In May, the wafer production schedule is expected to be over 60GW, and polysilicon is expected to continue to reduce inventory by 10,000 tons. However, it is generally expected that the Tongwei bases in Sichuan and Yunnan will resume production during the wet season. From June to November, the monthly polysilicon production schedule is expected to increase to over 130,000 tons, while the wafer production schedule will decline after June, and polysilicon may accumulate 20,000 - 30,000 tons of inventory per month [3][13] 3. How to Value the Futures: Discount Delivery or Premium Delivery? - The production of delivery goods is different from spot production. Currently, silicon material manufacturers use their spot production lines for regular business with downstream customers, and produce delivery goods through newly established production lines (with a preparation time of about 1 month), which is expected to increase the production cost by 1,000 - 2,000 yuan/ton. This means that delivery goods have a natural premium over spot N - type dense materials [4][22] - Although the delivery goods of polysilicon have a premium in quality and price for downstream wafer manufacturers, and wafer manufacturers need a discount to accept warehouse receipts, the long - side includes not only wafer manufacturers but also futures - cash merchants. When the monthly spread is appropriate, futures - cash merchants can complete the initial inventory build - up by taking delivery through positive spreads on the futures market [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The current futures price has significantly factored in the future weakening of polysilicon fundamentals. Attention should be paid to whether the southwestern production capacity will resume production as scheduled during the wet season after the price decline, and whether there is a possibility of higher - than - expected wafer production scheduling from May to June. As of April 18, there are only 10 lots (30 tons) of polysilicon warehouse receipts. Before the large - scale generation of warehouse receipts, it is more reasonable to value the market with a premium delivery. Based on the current absolute futures price, it is difficult for new warehouse receipts to be generated for contracts after 07. Strategies suggest focusing on the positive spread opportunities of PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 and the opportunity to go long on PS2512 at low prices [5][27]

日度报告——综合晨报 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 日本贸易让步：增加美大豆与大米进口 关税给实体经济带来的滞胀风险正逐步显现，市场风险偏好低 迷，美股期货小幅低开。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 俄乌互指对方未遵守复活节临时停火提议 俄乌双方复活节停火并没有得到实施，美伊谈判矛盾延续，全 球地缘风险继续处于高位，美元指数走弱。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 国常会：要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展 俄乌互指对方未遵守复活节临时停火提议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-21 能源化工（原油） 美国石油钻井总数回升 上一周油价修复反弹。 晨 报 TS 表现持续弱于长端品种，现券本身表现就弱是最核心的原因。 做陡曲线的赔率已经足够，但需要等待右侧信号。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚 4 月 1 日至 20 日棕榈油出口量增长 11.9% 4 月 1-20 日马棕出口增加。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量回落到 240.12 万吨 本周成材基本面虽有所改善，但钢价延续弱势震荡，外需走弱 的风险依然是市场最大的压制，冷轧的累库也印证了出口的走 弱。 ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金融工程组 2025年04月20日 王冬黎 金融工程首席分析师（国债期货） 从业资格号： F3032817 投资咨询号： Z0014348 Email: dongli.wang@orientfutures.com 徐凡 金融工程分析师(基本面量化&FOF) 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号：Z0022032 Email: xu.fan@orientfutures.com 李晓辉 金融工程首席分析师（CTA） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 Email: Xiaohui.li01@orientfutures.com 常海晴 金融工程分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 股指期货量化策略跟踪 2 主要内容 ★股指期货行情简评： 市场波动下降，呈现"大强小弱"走势。分行业看，银行和非银金融贡献了沪深300指数和上证50指数的主要涨幅，国防军工和医药生物贡献了中证500指数的主要跌幅， 电子和国防军工贡献了中证1000指数 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 供应端现边际减量，关注 5 月表需情况 | 走势评级: | | --- | | ملا ب بار ما | [Table_Summary] ★供应端现边际减量，关注 5 月表需情况 有 上周锂盐价格低位震荡。LC2505 收盘价环比+0.1%至 7.03 万元/ 吨，LC2507 收盘价环比-0.5%至 7.02 万元/吨；SMM 电池级 （99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.2%、0%至 7.15、6.97 万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-0.4% 至 7.0 万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格略降，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型 电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-0.3%至 6.88、7.40 万元/吨。电工价差 环比略收窄至 0.18 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价 格贴水环比略走阔至 0.26 万元/吨。 色 金 属 基本面角度，近期供应端有边际减量，部分盐厂于 4-6 月陆续开 启检修，原因包括常规年检、以及成本倒挂后的主动减量，SMM 碳酸锂周度产量环比减少 574 吨至 1.74 万吨；另一方面，矿端 报价仍在调降，至周五 FMB 最新锂精矿报价降至 80 ...

[★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 伦敦金涨 2.8%至 3327 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.32%，通胀 预期降至 2.24%，实际利率降至 2.08%，美元指数跌 0.87%至 99.2， 标普 500 指数跌 1.5%，人民币小跌，内外价差窄幅波动。 国际金价再度攀升创新高，国内资金通过多种途径做多黄金，沪 金期货、黄金 ETF 均明显吸引了资金流入，海外黄金 ETF 继续 增加，但 COMEX 黄金期货库存出现拐点，期货投机净多仓继续 回落。关税问题仍然是市场交易的核心逻辑，美国陆续与日本、 欧盟等国展开谈判，但进展较为缓慢，与中国的摩擦没有继续升 级，但双方还没有开始谈判，且即便是谈判也无法回到对等关税 加征前的状态，市场继续围绕去美元化的中长期逻辑展开交易。 经济数据显示美国居民在关税落地前增加消费，3 月美国零售销 售环比增长 1.4%，是 2023 年 1 月以来最大环比增速，同比增长 4.6%，汽车消费增长 5.3%是主要增长来源，在 13 个类别中有 11 个出现增长，关税明显施压消费者信心以及后续的消费能力，经 济下行风险增加。 周度报告-黄金 关税继续扰 ...