1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term, pay attention to the risk of decline, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11][12] - **US Dollar**: Short - term shock [14][15] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Expected to operate in a shock - upward manner, and maintain a bullish view [17][18] - **Stock Index Futures**: Continue to hold the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient. Focus on state reserve and customs policies. Without abnormal production cuts in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [25] - **Steam Coal**: The coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy side will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to maintain a shock market with certain support [29] - **Copper**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - **Zinc**: Unilaterally, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. For arbitrage, the positive spread should turn to waiting and see, and the internal - external spread should be treated with an internal - external reverse spread strategy [34] - **Lead**: Unilaterally and for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [38] - **Nickel**: Expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will still be a large upside space [41] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [43][44] - **Tin**: The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term futures price. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the ore supply will persist. Be vigilant about the price decline risk after the capital boom fades [48][49] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short - term [50][51] - **Asphalt**: The price will fluctuate in the short - term [52][53] - **Urea**: Do not chase the rise for now. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the start time and rhythm of spring plowing fertilizer demand and next year's export policy fluctuations. Try to go long at low prices when the relative valuation provides a certain safety margin [55] - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [57][58] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial instruments and commodities, including macro - strategy (such as foreign exchange futures, stock index futures, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal), black metals (steam coal, iron ore), non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, etc.), and energy chemicals (crude oil, asphalt, etc.). It points out the influencing factors of each market, such as geopolitical events, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [11][14][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - CME will raise the performance margin of multiple metal futures such as gold, silver, and lithium. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. The short - squeeze trading in silver has temporarily ended. With the poor market liquidity around the holiday and the increase in margin, the selling pressure has intensified. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday. After the holiday, pay attention to the potential decline risk caused by the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight in mid - January [11] 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's peace plan has encountered new obstacles. Russia said that Ukraine attacked Putin's residence, causing the cease - fire plan to stall. The US - Russia situation has new variables, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short - term [14][15] 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US existing - home sales in November reached a new high since the beginning of 2023. Trump is considering suing Powell. The mortgage rate has slightly decreased, leading to a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. However, the future interest - rate cut path is still uncertain. The US stock index futures are expected to operate in a shock - upward manner [16][17][18] 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Index has recorded nine consecutive positive days with heavy trading volume. The A - share market has large price fluctuations, with the commercial space concept rising significantly and the ChiNext Index falling. The expansion of liquidity is the main driving force for the recent market. It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] 3.1.5 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The decline in the bond market is mainly due to institutional behavior. It is necessary to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The port soybean inventory has decreased, while the oil - mill soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The market is concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans. The South American production outlook is optimistic. As long as there is no abnormal production cut in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [24][25] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on December 29. The coal price accelerated its decline this week. Considering the warm winter in December and January, the coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Champion Iron plans to acquire Rana Gruber. The iron - ore price has strong support. The decline risk of molten iron has slowed down, and the downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment may increase slightly. However, the market's expectation for the post - holiday demand is still cautious, and the iron - ore price is expected to maintain a shock market [29] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - end predicts the average copper price in 2026 to be $11,400/ton. The Khoemacau copper mine expansion project has been approved. The copper price has significantly corrected. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][32] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The import and export tariffs of zinc products in 2026 remain unchanged. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has continued to decline. The zinc price mainly fluctuates with the macro situation. In the medium - term, it is still in an upward - prone state. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [33][34] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Tianneng and Chaowei have launched sodium - ion batteries. The import tariffs of lead - acid batteries in some countries will be reduced in 2026. The lead price has limited upward space. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading strategy [35][36][37] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The social inventory of refined nickel remains high, and the market trading has become lighter. The RKAB quota and the pricing of cobalt at the mine end may support the nickel price. However, it is expected to return to a shock trend [39][40][41] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - reduction maintenance on some lithium - iron - phosphate production lines. The lithium - carbonate price may have short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [42][43][44] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The export tax rates of tin - related products will be adjusted in 2026. The inventory of tin has increased. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term price, and the long - term supply uncertainty persists [45][46][48] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude - oil inventory has slightly increased. The oil price has rebounded due to the geopolitical conflict. The supply is relatively abundant, and the global inventory pressure is large in the off - peak demand season [50][51] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social warehouses has decreased. In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to operate stably [52][53] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The urea price has fluctuated strongly recently. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand is mainly from the trading link. Do not chase the rise for now, and pay attention to relevant factors after the Spring Festival [54][55] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The styrene price has been running strongly recently. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [56][57][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hog industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the hog market evolved from "counter - cyclical inventory accumulation" to "policy - driven inventory reduction" under the backdrop of absolute over - capacity. Despite efficiency improvements and lower feed costs, the industry entered a phase of substantial capacity reduction due to continuous policy guidance and deep losses [2][13] - In 2026, the market will show a clear pattern of "near - term weakness and long - term strength". It is recommended to adopt a reverse spread strategy as the base allocation for the whole year to capture the price difference between reality and expectations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025: Waiting for the Bottom to Come - **Q1**: A "structural bottom" supported by expectations. The pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter led to a short - term supply shortage after the festival. The high fat - to - standard price spread strengthened the industry's reluctance to sell, delaying capacity clearance [14] - **Q2**: An "oscillating bottom - grinding" in sentiment games. After May Day, pig prices declined. The rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival lacked fundamental support, and the market returned to an oscillating pattern [15] - **Q3**: A "re - construction of far - month contracts" driven by policies. The industry symposium in July signaled "anti - involution" and "capacity and inventory reduction", shifting the trading logic to "strong expectations" and establishing a reverse spread structure [15] - **Q4**: A "cost breakdown" after returning to reality. After the National Day, pig prices fell sharply, breaking through the cash cost line. The market focused on the substantial reduction of sow inventory and potential winter epidemic risks [16] 3.2 Market Pattern Re - shaping and the Capacity Reduction Cycle 3.2.1 Vertical Intensification of the Industry - The hog industry has entered a new stage of structural differentiation and intensive upgrading. By October 2025, large - scale enterprises dominated the industry, with listed companies and large breeding groups controlling 43.1% of the sow inventory. The industry's overall ability has improved, but price and capacity adjustments have become more sensitive [20] - Regionally, different patterns have emerged: South China is highly intensive, Northeast China has a dual - structure, and Central China is more balanced. The inter - regional price difference has become more stable, and the futures delivery area has been expanded, strengthening the linkage between futures and spot markets [23][24] 3.2.2 Cycle Development Path: Policy and Market - Driven Capacity Reduction - **Downward inflection point delay**: Thanks to cost optimization, the downward inflection point of this cycle was postponed. The industry's profit was maintained until September 2025 when the industry entered a full - scale loss phase due to inventory pressure and spot price drops [30] - **Total over - supply**: The large inventory and high出栏 volume in 2025 were due to the increase in sow capacity last year. The supply pressure was significant, and many listed companies were close to or had exceeded their annual出栏 targets [43][47] - **Capacity loosening**: Since 2025, the sow inventory has gone through four stages. Multiple data sources confirm that the industry entered a new capacity adjustment phase in the third quarter, but the reduction is still mild, and the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of Q1 2026 [52][67] 3.3 Peak出栏, Speculation Support, and Consumption 3.3.1 Piglets: Leading Indicator for出栏 Forecast - Piglets are a key indicator for predicting hog出栏. In 2025, piglet supply increased steadily, and the industry's efficiency improvement contributed to the increase in piglet births. Based on the piglet - to - hog conversion cycle, the出栏 is expected to peak in Q1 2026 and may improve in Q2 [69][70] 3.3.2 Elasticity and Support from Speculation - **Breeding speculation**: The inventory adjustment through breeding speculation affects the存栏 structure. In 2025, the industry showed long - term optimization and short - term fluctuations in the weight distribution of hogs. In 2026, post - Spring Festival low - price pressure and secondary fattening may support prices [78][80] - **Frozen product inventory**: In 2025, the frozen product inventory rate first decreased and then increased. In 2026, if there is a price reversal expectation in the second half of the year, the slaughter end may increase inventory in the first half, supporting post - Spring Festival spot prices [93][94] 3.3.3 Limited Boost from Curing Demand - Although the slaughter volume increased year - on - year, the curing demand at the end of the year had limited impact on prices. The reasons include the long - term consumption structure optimization and the postponed Spring Festival in 2026 [98] 3.3.4 Feed Data Confirmation - Feed data can confirm the hog存栏 structure. As of November, the feed sales data from different institutions showed that the feed consumption related to capacity had decreased marginally, while the fattening feed was still increasing, indicating a significant存栏 pressure [100][101] 3.4 Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.4.1 Summary of Views - The continuous increase in sow inventory in 2024 led to an expansion of hog出栏 in 2025 and a price decline. However, factors such as lower feed costs, speculative behavior, and improved production efficiency deviated from the early market expectations. The industry may see a new upward inflection point in pig prices around Q2 2026, but the cycle evolution is complex [110][111] 3.4.2 Strategies - **Short - term (end of the year to pre - Spring Festival)**: Seize the band - trading opportunities in the oscillating market. Use an interval - oscillating strategy, and consider short - term long positions when the market is pessimistic and short positions when prices reach key resistance levels. The support level for LH2603 is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton [112] - **Medium - term (post - Spring Festival to Q1 2026)**: Adopt a bearish strategy and focus on the release of supply pressure. Short positions can be added on price rebounds, but beware of potential rebounds. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when LH2603 approaches 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and LH2605 returns to 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [113][114] - **Long - term (from Q2 2026)**: Observe on the left - hand side and prepare for the cycle reversal. Shift the strategy from "short - selling" to "finding the inflection point". When the fundamental signals are confirmed, gradually build long positions in far - month contracts at the support level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Use a flexible reverse spread strategy for arbitrage [115]

年度报告——玻璃 寒霜未尽，道阻且长 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 玻璃 : 看跌 [Table_Summary] ★地产竣工端缩量态势下，浮法玻璃需求或继续下滑： 2026 年玻璃盘面针对地产政策能够展开的博弈空间有限，主要 因为政策逻辑已经发生重大转变，当前政府部门更倾向于通过 宏观的改善来带动地产。2026 年地产竣工端预计继续面临有效 稳地产政策缺位、竣工储备缩水、存量商品房去库压力大以及 房企流动性压力大等多重压力，预计 2026 年竣工面积较 2025 年下滑 10%左右，继续拖累浮法玻璃需求端。而从另一方面， 2024 年以来单位建筑面积玻璃用量开始大幅提升，能够在一定 程度上对冲部分来自竣工端的负面冲击。综合测算，2026 年浮 法玻璃消费量或较 2025 年下滑 3%左右。 ★供给继续缩量，关注潜在减产可能： 能 源 化 工 2026 年浮法玻璃产量的上行潜在增量将主要来自 2025 年年内 因环保压力延后到 2026 年春节后点火的部分产线，主要因为该 部分新建产线所用的产能置换指标即将到期。除此之外，2026 年有点火计划的产线多为视行情点火，市场下行阶段的点火概 率较低。而下行潜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new moon orders of photovoltaic glass are expected to continue to shrink compared to December, and the new moon prices are expected to continue to decline [1][3][7] - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently in a situation of high inventory pressure, and future production cuts and cold repairs will inevitably increase [1][7][23] - The photovoltaic glass market has entered a stage of low - price competition again, and the industry is suffering serious losses [2][7][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Last week, the number of blocked kilns of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased, with no new production line launches or cold - repair shutdowns. The current domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 88,480 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate is 67.03%, both showing a month - on - month decline. As manufacturers' gross profit margins continue to decline, the number of blocked kilns is expected to continue to increase [1][7][11] - Demand: Near the end of the year, the demand has shrunk significantly. Terminal construction has gradually halted, leading to a reduction in component purchases and a corresponding decrease in photovoltaic glass consumption. Additionally, as the prices of multiple products in the photovoltaic industry chain have risen while the terminal's purchasing power is weak, component manufacturers have been forced to reduce their operating loads or directly take holidays and stop production. Short - term demand is expected to continue to weaken [1][7][20] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to rise. As demand further weakens and the decline in the supply side is relatively small, the supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. The industry is currently under high inventory pressure, and an increase in production cuts and cold repairs in the future is inevitable [1][7][23] - Cost and Profit: The gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry last week was approximately - 13.06%. The market has re - entered a stage of low - price competition, and the industry is suffering serious losses [2][7][26] 3.2 Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 3.2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Prices - As of December 26, the mainstream price of domestic 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass (panel) was 11.5 yuan per square meter, remaining unchanged from the previous week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 18.5 yuan per square meter, also remaining unchanged from the previous week [1][8] 3.2.2 Supply Side - The situation of production capacity and blocked kilns is the same as that in the weekly outlook section [11] - The report also provides information on the production line changes of domestic photovoltaic glass in 2025, including the cold - repair and ignition time of production lines of various companies in different regions [19] 3.2.3 Demand Side - The demand situation is the same as that in the weekly outlook section [20] 3.2.4 Inventory Side - The inventory situation is the same as that in the weekly outlook section [23] 3.2.5 Cost and Profit Side - The cost - profit situation is the same as that in the weekly outlook section [26] 3.2.6 Trade Side - From January to November 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 26.1% compared to the same period in 2024. The export of photovoltaic glass remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is relatively strong [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | USD | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [26] 2. Core Views of the Report - Christmas holiday led to thin trading in overseas markets, but risk appetite moderately rebounded. US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, and the employment market remained resilient. In China, short-term macro negatives were limited, and the Beijing real estate policy boosted the market [5]. - Global equity markets generally rose, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. The USD index weakened, while the RMB appreciated. Global commodity markets were strong, especially precious metals and non-ferrous metals [7][8][10][24]. - US stocks are expected to oscillate higher due to strong Q3 GDP and positive year - end seasonality. A - shares are likely to have a positive and oscillating trend, supported by the Beijing real estate policy. Treasuries are expected to strengthen, with long - term bonds likely to outperform short - term ones [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Overseas: Christmas trading was thin, but risk preference rose. US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, driven by consumer spending. The employment market remained resilient, and the political pressure on the Fed increased. The market was optimistic about future liquidity, and the metal sector rose sharply [5]. - Domestic: Short - term macro negatives were limited. The Beijing real estate policy boosted the market, and various hot topics performed well. The stock market is expected to oscillate positively [5]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global equity markets generally rose. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.51%, etc. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose 3.1%, etc. MSCI indices also rose, with emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [7][8]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The USD index weakened by 0.69% to 98. The RMB appreciated by 0.46% against the USD, reaching below 7.01. Other major currencies also showed different trends, with some appreciating and some depreciating [10][11]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global 10 - year government bond yields fluctuated narrowly. In developed countries, US bond yields fell 2bp to 4.14%, while Japanese bond yields rose 2bp. In emerging markets, Chinese bond yields rose 1bp to 1.84% [14][15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market was strong, with the spot market oscillating at a high level and the futures index rebounding. Energy prices were weak, while the metal sector was strong. Gold and silver rose significantly, with silver rising over 18% [20][24]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is rated as oscillating. Overseas silver short - squeeze trading is nearing the end, increasing the risk of a decline and dragging down gold. The actual interest rate slightly rose, the USD index oscillated, and the RMB appreciated. The internal - external price difference of gold increased without a one - sided trend. The speculative position data of Comex gold futures was lagging, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly increased. The silver price short - squeeze may be ending, and attention should be paid to the decline risk [26][32][38]. 3.3.2 USD - The USD is rated as bearish. Although the US GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, it will not change the interest - rate cut rhythm, so the USD is expected to continue to decline [26]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are rated as oscillating. The Q3 GDP data supported market risk preference, and the market volatility decreased. The year - end seasonality of US stocks is strong, and they are expected to oscillate higher [26][43][50]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are rated as oscillating. Short - term macro negatives are limited, and the Beijing real estate policy boosts the market. The market is expected to have a positive and oscillating trend, and long positions in stock indices can be held [26][51][54]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are rated as oscillating. With fewer trading days next week, institutional behavior will be more stable, and the weak manufacturing PMI may drive the bond market to strengthen. Long - term bonds are expected to outperform short - term ones [26][60]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - GDPNow model estimates Q4 growth at 2.97%, and the red - book retail sales increased by 7.2% year - on - year. Oil prices were weak, and inflation expectations fell. Unemployment benefit claims remained high, and the employment market continued to cool but remained resilient [76]. - Bank reserves were 2.93 trillion, TGA account balance rose to 861.4 billion, and overnight reverse repurchase scale rose to 20.03 billion. High - yield corporate bond credit spreads slightly declined, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations cooled slightly. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January rose to 82.3%, and 2 interest - rate cuts are expected in 2026 [83]. - November's non - farm data was mixed. New employment was better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. CPI and core inflation decreased, and the pressure on core inflation further eased [86]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - Beijing issued real - estate policies to stimulate demand, but the policy strength is still weak, and the support for housing prices is limited [87]. - In November, economic indicators showed a weakening trend in total volume, with a supply - strong and demand - weak structure. Investment and social retail sales declined, while industrial production was relatively stable [97]. - In November, credit data continued to be weak, and private - sector financing willingness was low. Government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while non - standard and corporate bonds supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. M1 and M2 growth rates declined [99]. - In November, CPI and PPI showed a K - shaped divergence. CPI was in line with expectations and trended upward, while PPI was weaker than expected. Food prices supported CPI, while tourism, oil prices, and rent dragged it down. PPI was suppressed by "anti - involution" and input factors [108]. - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, while imports increased by 1.9%, slightly lower than expectations. In the future, exports are expected to remain resilient [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the futures market in the 53rd week of 2025 through technical indicators, showing that different sectors have different trends, with some showing bullish signals, some bearish, and others in a volatile state. The overall market has obvious structural characteristics, and it is recommended to track key indicators and pay attention to position management [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - The gold in the precious metals sector shows a bullish signal, while the rest are volatile. In the non - ferrous metals sector, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, and polysilicon shows a bearish signal, with the remaining varieties mainly volatile [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai copper has a strong upward trend. The weekly and monthly trends resonate, and the short - term possibility of a sharp correction is low [12]. 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coils, iron ore, and coking coal show bullish signals, the rest of the black varieties are volatile, and European line container shipping shows a bearish signal [20]. - The price of the main rebar contract mainly consolidates, with insufficient technical momentum and is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [24]. 3.3能化板块 - Fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and LPG in the energy sector show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile. In the chemical sector, polypropylene, pure benzene, caustic soda, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile [29]. - The PTA main contract has short - term upward repair momentum. If it breaks through the resistance, the medium - term target can be higher [32]. 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean meal, palm oil, rapeseed meal, sugar, corn, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile. The sugar main contract needs to pay attention to the risk of decline, and the short - term rebound is difficult to reverse the downward trend [38][42]. 3.5股指期货板块 - The Shanghai 50 Index futures, CSI 500 Index futures, CSI 1000 Index futures, and SSE Composite 300 Index futures all show a volatile pattern. The IC CSI 500 Index futures are expected to fluctuate next week with upward momentum, and attention should be paid to whether there are reversal signals [49][52]. 3.6国债期货板块 - The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures are volatile. The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile, with upward repair power in the short term but also pressure [55][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week (2025.12.21 - 2025.12.26), the trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly, with an average daily trading volume of 8.43 million lots and an average daily open interest of 7.03 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +22.16% and +8.84% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements this week. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. The market sentiment for different varieties also varied, with some showing a concentrated expectation of price decline and others showing an expectation of price increase [2][16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of actively - traded varieties this week included silver (1.52 million lots), PTA (0.69 million lots), and nickel (0.43 million lots). Five varieties had a trading - volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in paraxylene (+461%), nickel (+196%), and rapeseed meal (+171%). Meanwhile, LPG (-79%), fuel oil (-79%), and soybeans No.1 (-71%) had obvious trading - volume declines. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (0.47 million lots), silver (0.45 million lots), and soda ash (0.45 million lots). Paraxylene (+282%) and PTA (+119%) had a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in open interest [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The varieties with high weekly increases included silver (+14%), lithium carbonate (+5.34%), and PTA (+4.62%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included polysilicon (-2.14%) and Shanghai tin (-1.58%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis, with the current implied volatility of 42 varieties above the 50% percentile of the past year. The implied volatility of silver, nickel, lithium carbonate, paraxylene, and staple fiber increased by 22.06, 18.17, 11.59, 10.22, and 10.17 percentage points respectively. Varieties with implied volatility at a one - year high included silver, tin, nickel, aluminum, copper, and paraxylene; those with implied volatility at a one - year low included soybean oil [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Currently, the trading - volume PCR of lithium carbonate and apples is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated expectation of price decline in the market; the trading - volume PCR of live pigs, aluminum, rapeseed oil, corn, gold, and rubber is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated expectation of price increase. The open - interest PCR of lithium carbonate, silver, paraxylene, and PTA is at a historical high, showing a high level of market sentiment for betting on price decline; the open - interest PCR of aluminum, ethylene glycol, zinc, and styrene is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of market sentiment for betting on price increase [2][17]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be found on the official website of Dongzheng Fanwei (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]. 3.3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of crude oil, but no specific data analysis in the text [23][24][27]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR, but no specific data analysis in the text [30][31][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to PTA, relevant data are presented in charts without specific text analysis [39][40][41]. - **Glass**: Charts show related data, and there is no specific text analysis [45][46][47]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts present relevant information, and no detailed text analysis [53][54][56]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR of silver, with no specific text analysis [62][63][64]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are presented in charts, and no detailed text analysis [70][71][72]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar to iron ore, relevant data are shown in charts without specific text analysis [77][78][79]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR, with no specific text analysis [85][86][90]. - **Aluminum**: Similar to copper, relevant data are presented in charts without detailed text analysis [92][93][95]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The total trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and trading - volume PCR are shown in charts, and no detailed text analysis [98][100][103]. - **Palm Oil**: Relevant data are presented in charts without specific text analysis [106][107][108]. - **Cotton**: Similar to the above, relevant data are shown in charts without detailed text analysis [114][115][117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the short - term view on the iron ore market is "oscillation" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly. The seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious procurement by steel mills have led to a marginal weakening on the demand side. Supply shipments are stable, port inventories are continuously rising, and valuations have returned to high levels, suppressing the price rebound momentum. The short - term pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market focus has shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%). [3][37] - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines, including BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale, both globally and to China, through multiple charts [46][49]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 371,000 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 tons per day (-1.62%). [57] - **Freight**: The freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%). [53] - **Arrival Volume at Chinese Ports**: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 Chinese ports was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%). [3][55] 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%). [3][65] - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%). [67] - **Global Steel Production**: The report shows the production data of global blast furnace pig iron, Chinese blast furnace pig iron, and global crude steel through multiple charts [74][77][78]. - **Port Dredging**: The report presents the seasonal data of 45 - port dredging volume, the daily average dredging volume of Qingdao Port, and port spot transactions through charts [84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 Chinese ports was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%). [3][87] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%). [94] 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.08%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the main - contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.003. [7] - **Spot Market**: The report shows the prices of Platts iron ore index, port spot, and different - grade iron ores through multiple charts [17][19][20] 3.5 Other Information - **Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics**: Include steel mill dynamics, mine dynamics, and macro - news, such as MagIron's proposed acquisition of RevnoIds pellet plant, Champion Iron's proposed acquisition of Rana Gruber, and the State Council Premier's plan to formulate major projects [4]. - **Market View Summary**: The overall market view is that supply and demand are loose but expectations are improving. With high inventories, the market oscillates strongly, and macro - sentiment supports prices. There are differences in short - term iron ore trends, mainly due to the game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand. [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Golden Industrial Strategy Weekly Report - Analysts: Li Xiaohui (Chief Analyst), Xu Fan (Senior Analyst) - Qualification Numbers: Li Xiaohui (F03120233, Z0019676), Xu Fan (F03107676, Z0022032) [1][2] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Analysis Market Review - Last week, all four treasury bond futures varieties rose first and then fell. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were reported at 112.47 yuan, 107.985 yuan, 105.82 yuan, and 102.464 yuan respectively. The basis declined, the IRR continued to rise, and the inter - period spread was volatile and strong [3]. Timing Strategy - **Ten - year Treasury Bonds**: Based on this year's performance, ranked by Sharpe ratio, the factors are basis factor, risk asset, and member position, with Sharpe ratios in 2025 of 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively [3][13]. - **Five - year Treasury Bonds**: Based on this year's performance, ranked by Sharpe ratio, the factors are high - frequency fund flow, intraday volume - price, risk asset, member position, and basis factor, with Sharpe ratios in 2025 of 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively [3][14]. - **Two - year Treasury Bonds**: Based on this year's performance, ranked by Sharpe ratio, the factors are high - frequency fund flow, basis factor, intraday volume - price, and member position, with Sharpe ratios in 2025 of 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively [3][15]. Group 3: Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Analysis Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, domestic commodities generally showed a strong trend, with the comprehensive index having a prominent weekly increase. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and some energy - chemical varieties had high upward intensities, and silver and lithium carbonate both had huge increases of over 17%. The overall profitability of commodity factors recovered. Except for the basic factors such as basis and warehouse receipts with basically flat weekly returns, other types of factors increased to varying degrees, especially the volume - price trend factors, mainly due to the recent rise in market sentiment, and the price trend deviated from the fundamental expectations to some extent. Commodity factors still have long - term expected return capabilities, and the overall performance of commodity factors is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term. However, recent market fluctuations may intensify the strategy's volatility risk, and investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation approach to prevent risks [20][23]. Tracking Strategy Performance | Strategy Name | Annualized Return | Sharpe Ratio | Calmar | Max Drawdown | Recent One - Week Return | YTD Return | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CWFT | 9.3% | 1.59 | 1.06 | - 8.81% | 0.92% | 4.70% | | C_frontnext & Short Trend | 11.4% | 1.73 | 1.70 | - 6.72% | 0.33% | 4.19% | | Long CWFT & Short CWFT | 12.1% | 1.35 | 0.92 | - 13.07% | 1.71% | 0.49% | | CS XGBoost | 6.0% | 1.01 | 0.36 | - 16.70% | - 0.09% | - 9.13% | | RuleBased TS Sharp - combine | 12.0% | 1.57 | 1.45 | - 8.26% | 0.39% | 10.83% | | RuleBased TS XGB - combine | 11.9% | 2.08 | 2.65 | - 4.49% | - 0.28% | 8.39% | | CS strategies, EW combine | 12.6% | 1.79 | 1.71 | - 7.38% | 0.89% | - 2.10% | [21] Strategy Comparison - Among the above six strategies, Long CWFT & Short CWFT performed best last week with a return of 1.71%, and CWFT performed best this year with a return of 4.70% [42].