1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market rebounded slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 7.22 million lots and an average daily open interest of 10.01 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of +13.63% and +17.96% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance in terms of price changes. There are opportunities in varieties with high trading activity, and attention should be paid to the risks and opportunities indicated by factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and option market sentiment [1][2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily actively - traded varieties included glass (650,000 lots), lithium carbonate (610,000 lots), and polysilicon (520,000 lots). Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with asphalt (+161%), ethylene glycol (+158%), and urea (+156%) showing significant growth. The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-83%), log (-58%), and alumina (-47%) [1][7]. - The varieties with a relatively high average daily open interest were glass (1.05 million lots), soda ash (870,000 lots), and glass (840,000 lots). The varieties with a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest were synthetic rubber (+83%), styrene (+66%), and LPG (+51%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price changes. The varieties with high weekly increases included rapeseed meal (+6.32%), pulp (+3.49%), and urea (+2.58%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included asphalt (-6.04%), polysilicon (-5.66%), and red dates (-5.47%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity option implied volatilities in various sectors decreased this week. Seventeen varieties had their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year included live pigs, methanol, and asphalt; those at a low level included sugar, tin, cotton, and manganese silicon [2][15]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as apples, eggs, lithium carbonate, LPG, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of aluminum, ethylene glycol, and corn was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ferrosilicon, soybean meal, silver, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, while that of aluminum, corn, methanol, palm oil, and plastic was at a historical low [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview - The chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20]. - Specific sub - sections cover energy (crude oil, LPG, etc.), chemicals (PTA, caustic soda, glass, soda ash), precious metals (silver), ferrous metals (iron ore, manganese silicon), non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum), and agricultural products (soybean meal, palm oil, cotton), with corresponding data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR provided [21][28][59][66][82][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% since 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and the call for "anti - involution" is growing louder [4][121]. - In the overseas market, severe trade protectionism in Europe and the United States brings volatility risks to exports. Attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East [4][121]. - In terms of the competitive landscape, the market share of domestic brands continues to expand. Companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [4][121]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The weekly price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios of related sectors and listed companies are presented in the report, including the closing prices and weekly price changes of companies such as BYD, Seres, and Great Wall Motor [14][17]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **China Market Sales and Exports**: Data on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, and exports are provided, as well as sales data for electric vehicles (EV) and plug - in hybrid vehicles (PHV) [18][20][26]. - **China Market Inventory Changes**: Information on the monthly new additions to new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory is given [27][28]. - **China New Energy Vehicle Manufacturer Deliveries**: Monthly delivery data for new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented [31][32][35]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Data on global new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV are provided [41][42][44]. - **European Market**: Information on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France are presented [45][46][51]. - **North American Market**: Data on North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV are provided [58][59][60]. - **Other Regions**: Information on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand are presented [61][62][65]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industrial Chain - Data on power battery installation volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and material costs are provided. Information on the production start - up rates and prices of ternary materials, ternary precursors, lithium iron phosphate, and other materials are also included [78][80][85]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Data on the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented [101][102][103]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - The State Council Information Office released the white paper "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality", highlighting China's achievements in green and low - carbon transformation and the promotion of new energy vehicles [108]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - According to the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 31, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 17% year - on - year, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 23%. The estimated wholesale growth rate of new energy vehicles in October was 16% [110][112]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - Seres was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 5, becoming the first luxury new energy vehicle company with "A + H shares". The Aian UT Super 1 car jointly built by JD.com, GAC, and CATL was officially launched [113][114]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - The EU Council reached an agreement on the 2040 climate target, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 by 2040 [115]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Industry Dynamics - In the UK, passenger car sales in September increased by 13.7%, with pure - electric and plug - in hybrid electric vehicles increasing by 29.1% and 56.4% respectively. In the US, car sales in October decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the new energy vehicle market was in trouble due to the expiration of tax credits [117][118]. 3.4 Industry Views - In the domestic market, in October, new energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to October, cumulative retail sales were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. In October, new energy passenger vehicle wholesale was 1.614 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to October, cumulative wholesale was 12.061 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. The new energy retail penetration rate in October was 58.7%, and the wholesale penetration rate was 55.2% [2][119]. - Globally, from January to September, new energy vehicle sales increased by 30% year - on - year to 15.42 million. In the European market, cumulative sales were 2.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 28%; in the North American market, cumulative sales were 1.42 million, a year - on - year increase of 10%; in other regions, cumulative sales were 0.77 million, a year - on - year increase of 54%. The UK reached a new high in September, mainly due to the government's electric vehicle subsidy policy [2][119]. - In the US, new energy vehicle sales and penetration rates reached consecutive record highs in August and September, mainly because the federal electric vehicle tax credit ($7,500) expired on September 30. In October, car sales decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, Ford's electric vehicle sales decreased by 24.8% year - on - year, and Tesla's sales decreased by 30.4% year - on - year in October after a growth in September. Tesla launched low - cost versions of Model Y and Model 3 in October, and the market reaction remains to be seen [3][120]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Focus on the new energy vehicle industry in China, pay attention to new growth points in overseas markets such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East, and select companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [4][121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on technical analysis, the precious metals sector is predominantly oscillating; in the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon and copper are bearish, and the rest of the varieties are oscillating. Lithium carbonate shows a bullish "hammer line" pattern on the weekly chart, with short - term rebound potential, expected to fluctuate between 71,300 - 76,800 yuan/ton [1]. - Technical analysis indicates that coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and European line container shipping show bearish signals, while the rest of the black - series varieties are mainly oscillating. Rebar dropped 2.32% this week, but there is potential for a technical rebound in the 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton range [2]. - In the energy - chemical sector, low - sulfur fuel oil and urea are technically bullish, while asphalt, PVC, and caustic soda show bearish signals, and the rest are oscillating. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4,380 - 4,430 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, sugar is bullish, rapeseed and red dates are bearish, and the rest are oscillating. Soybean meal is expected to trade in the 3,065 - 3,070 yuan/ton range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - The precious metals sector is mainly oscillating; in the non - ferrous sector, polysilicon and copper show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [10][11]. 1.2 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - High - volatility varieties such as tin, nickel, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have wide price ranges for support and resistance levels, with prominent trading risks. Low - volatility varieties such as aluminum, lead, alumina, stainless steel, and gold are suitable for range - bound operations [17]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Coking coal, coke, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals; European line container shipping mainly shows bearish signals, and the rest of the black - series varieties are mainly oscillating [21][22]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and iron ore are suitable for range - bound operations. High - volatility varieties such as coking coal, coke, and European line container shipping should be traded in the direction of the trend with strict stop - losses [29]. 3. Energy - Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy - Chemical Sector Technical Signal Summary - In the energy sector, low - sulfur fuel oil shows a bullish signal, and asphalt shows a bearish signal, with the rest oscillating. In the chemical sector, urea shows a bullish signal, and PVC and caustic soda show bearish signals, with the rest oscillating [33][34]. 3.2 Energy - Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt may be in a sideways consolidation state. High - volatility varieties such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and staple fiber require attention to price volatility risks and setting active stop - loss strategies [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Sugar in the agricultural products sector shows a bullish signal, rapeseed and red dates show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [45][47]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - Low - volatility varieties such as soybeans, corn, and corn starch are in a low - volatility oscillating consolidation pattern. Medium - volatility varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and sugar have a certain price swing space. High - volatility varieties such as oils, live pigs, and apples have potential price volatility risks and opportunities [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - London gold oscillated slightly down to $4001 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.09%, inflation expectation was 2.28%, real interest rate rose slightly to 1.83%, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.6, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.6%, the RMB oscillated, and Shanghai gold turned to a premium [2] - Gold prices are in a long-short game at the $4000 mark. After a 10% correction from the high, there are signs of bottom-fishing, but potential negative pressures suppress the rebound space of gold prices. The end of the US government shutdown would be short-term negative for gold, market expectations for a December interest rate cut have declined, the Sino-US tariff issue has eased marginally, and the US economic data is fair [3] - The domestic gold tax reform has been implemented, suppressing jewelry demand and potentially boosting investment demand. The domestic market performs better than the international market. The People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves in October, but the increment slowed down, having limited positive impact on gold [4] - In the short term, the gold price is still in a correction trend, and the domestic gold maintains a small premium [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Changes in High-Frequency Gold Data - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was -3.62 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -2.72 yuan and a change rate of 302.2%. The domestic and foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was 3.50 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 14.05 yuan and a change rate of -133.2% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 89,616 kilograms, an increase of 1,800 kilograms or 2.0% from last week. The COMEX gold inventory was 37,729,455 ounces, a decrease of 438,591 ounces or -1.15% from last week [12] - The SPDR ETF's gold holding was 1042.06 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons or 0.28% from last week. The CFTC gold speculative net long position was 158,616 lots, a decrease of 1,867 lots or -1.2% from last week [12] 2. Tracking of Financial Market - Related Data 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.2%, and the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.09%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the VIX index rose slightly to 19 [19] - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.92%. Oil prices fell 2.2%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.28% [18] - The real interest rate rose to 1.83%, and the gold price oscillated flat. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index fell 0.2% [20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets fell, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.63%. Most developing - country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.08% [22] - US and German bonds rose, with the US - German yield spread at 1.47%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.47%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.68% [29] - The euro appreciated 0.25%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.07%, the yen appreciated 0.37%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 0.07%. The US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed movements [27][30] 3. Tracking of Gold Trading - Level Data - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR Gold ETF holding rose slightly to 1042 tons [33] - The RMB oscillated, and Shanghai gold turned to a premium. Gold and silver corrected, and the gold - silver ratio rose slightly to 82 [36] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - On Monday, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting will be released. On Tuesday, the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for October will be announced. On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Bezant will give a speech [37] - On Thursday, the minutes of the Bank of Canada's interest rate meeting will be released. On Friday, China's October retail sales and industrial added value data will be announced [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatile; Polysilicon: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices may have a clearer lower limit, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits at high levels. Polysilicon has entered a critical point of policy - fundamental game, and it is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [3][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon Si2601 contract rose 120 yuan/ton to 9220 yuan/ton week - on - week. SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9450 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 rose 50 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton. Polysilicon PS2601 contract fell 3195 yuan/ton to 53215 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re -投料 was flat at 53200 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Dry Season Production Cuts Materialize, Platform Companies Fall Short of Expectations Again - **Industrial silicon**: Futures main contract fluctuated strongly. Yunnan's开工 decreased by 22 units to 21, Sichuan's by 23 units to 22, while Inner Mongolia and Ningxia each added 1 unit. Southwest furnaces may further limit production in mid - to - late November, with the start - up furnaces in Southwest expected to drop to about 20 by the end of November. Northern production is stable. SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.39 million tons. After updating the balance sheet, a slight inventory build - up in November and a 1 - million - ton inventory reduction in December are expected [10] - **Organic silicon**: Prices fluctuated. Jiangxi Xinghuo's 200,000 - ton plant is expected to resume production on the 31st, Tangshan Sanyou's Phase III plant shut down, Hubei Xingrui's plant is operating at 70% capacity, Xin'an Chemical's plant is under maintenance, Shandong Dongyue's Phase III plant shut down, and Yunnan Energy Investment's plant is expected to resume production on the 4th. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 72.41%, weekly output was 47,900 tons (up 5.51% week - on - week), and inventory was 43,500 tons (down 1.36% week - on - week). Prices are expected to fluctuate [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: Futures main contract dropped significantly. Spot prices are under pressure. Leading first - tier manufacturers' dense re -投料 prices are above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' prices are 47 - 50 yuan/kg, and low - quality supplies' prices are weakening. Granular material prices are 50 - 51 yuan/kg. November's production is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 6th, factory inventory was 259,000 tons (down 0.2 million tons week - on - week). In November, it enters the critical point of policy - fundamental game, and the fundamentals are more severe than in October. If platform companies underperform again, spot prices may fall [11] - **Silicon wafers**: Prices declined. M10 wafers' mainstream price is 1.35 yuan/piece, with some dropping to 1.33 yuan/piece; G12R wafers' mainstream price is 1.35 yuan/piece, with low - price transactions at 1.30 - 1.33 yuan/piece; G12 wafers' mainstream price dropped to 1.65 - 1.68 yuan/piece. November's production is expected to be 57.66GW, a decrease of 2.99GW from October. As of November 6th, inventory was 17.52GW (down 1.41GW week - on - week). The supply - demand and inventory situation in the silicon wafer segment is controllable, but it is under pressure due to the battery segment [12] - **Battery cells**: Prices continued to fall. Indian demand shifted to Southeast Asian production bases, and M10 battery cells' mainstream price dropped to 0.305 yuan/watt. Domestic demand also declined, and G21R and G12 battery cells' mainstream prices dropped to 0.28 and 0.30 yuan/watt. As of November 3rd, export factory inventory was 3.85GW (down 2.17GW week - on - week). November's production is expected to be 57.4GW. With weakening domestic and foreign demand, prices may decline further [12] - **Components**: Prices were basically stable. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, with mainstream delivery prices at 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt; distributed project large - customer delivery prices were 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some centralized procurement projects had demand for high - power components above 700W, and leading component manufacturers raised quotes for such components by 0.04 - 0.06 yuan/watt to 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand declined significantly, and some enterprises reported orders falling short of expectations. November's domestic production is expected to be 44.4GW (down 1GW month - on - month). There are concerns about a significant drop in December's production. As of November 3rd, finished - product inventory was 31.2GW (down 0.6GW week - on - week). Component enterprises are responding to the guiding prices, but actual transaction prices need attention [13] 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: After previous hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. Prices need to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increases. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits at high levels [14] - **Polysilicon**: It has entered the critical point of policy - fundamental game, and the fundamentals are more severe. If platform companies underperform again, spot prices may fall. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [15] 4. Hot News Compilation - In September 2025, the national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 95%, and the January - September utilization rate was also 95% [16] - A Chinese company invested $85 million to build a factory in Angola to process quartz ore into metallic silicon, with a monthly production capacity of 1,000 tons per electric furnace. The project has provided jobs for 500 Angolan and 50 Chinese employees [16] - On November 5th, the environmental impact assessment of a 6.2GW TOPCon solar cell technical renovation project in Jiangsu was publicized, with a total investment of 22 million yuan [17] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [19][22][27] - **Organic silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly production [29][30] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [33][37] - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, profit calculation, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [39][43] - **Battery cells**: Has data on spot prices, profit calculation, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [44][50] - **Components**: Includes data on spot prices, profit calculation, finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [52][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/03 - 11/07), lithium salt prices showed a strong oscillation. The downstream demand remains strong, and the inventory reduction rhythm is accelerating. However, the supply of Chilean lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports has increased marginally, and domestic lithium salt resources are also expanding production simultaneously. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - term, the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, and a mid - term high - selling short - selling strategy can be considered [2][4][24] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Chile's Shipment Increased Significantly in October, and the Market's Game on Supply Intensified - **Price Changes**: Last week, LC2511 closed at 80,500 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month - on - month; LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.9% month - on - month. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices were 80,400 and 78,200 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.2% month - on - month. The price of lithium hydroxide remained stable. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide was at a discount to the battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the discount widened by 0.05 million yuan to 0.48 million yuan/ton [2][14] - **Chilean Shipment Data**: In October, Chile exported 27,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, up 50% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year. Exports to China were 16,200 tons, up 46% month - on - month and down 4% year - on - year. From January to October, the total export was 215,000 tons, down 0.7% year - on - year, with 137,000 tons to China, down 15% year - on - year. In October, the shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 1,700 tons (about 854 tons LCE), down 64% month - on - month and 80% year - on - year. From January to October, the total shipment was 72,000 tons (36,000 tons LCE), up 81% year - on - year [3][16] - **Market Analysis**: The release of the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo may indicate that the resumption process is progressing smoothly, but the resumption time is still uncertain. The short - term market is expected to oscillate widely, and a mid - term high - selling short - selling strategy can be considered [4][24] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - **Salt Lake Co., Ltd.**: Plans to produce 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, and a 40,000 - ton lithium salt project was officially put into operation at the end of September [25] - **Hainan Mining Co., Ltd.**: The first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from the Buguni lithium mine was shipped on October 14, and is expected to be transported back to China early next year. The company enjoys tax incentives and policy support [25] - **Jiangxi Natural Resources Department**: Released the public notice of the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo, including resource utilization, reserves, technical indicators, and the assessment value of the mining right transfer income [26] - **TrendForce**: Predicts that the global demand for solid - state batteries will reach 740GWh in 2035 [26] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - Lithium concentrate spot prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [27] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Game of Resumption Disturbance Intensifies - The price of lithium salt futures and spot shows certain changes. The resumption of production in mica projects and the increase in supply from Chile and Australia have an impact on the market, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Continue to be Strong - Ternary materials and lithium cobaltate prices continue to show a strong trend, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and related products are relatively stable [40][41][44][45] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown has led to a passive tightening of liquidity, increasing market volatility. Once the shutdown ends, market sentiment is expected to be boosted. The US economy has not yet entered a recession, but the employment market is showing a clear weakening trend, and the economic outlook is pessimistic. The current situation of liquidity tightening may present a good entry opportunity, as it is expected to be temporary. Once the government reopens and the liquidity tightens eases, market risk appetite will recover [2][10][32] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most global stock markets fell, and most bond yields rose. The US Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.09%. The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, while the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, and the yen rose 0.37%. Gold prices fluctuated around $4000 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 19, and the spot commodity index declined. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets fell. In developed markets, the S&P 500 dropped 1.63%, and the Eurozone stock markets mostly declined. In emerging markets, most stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.08% and the Hang Seng Index rising 1.29%, while the Nikkei 225 index dropped 4.07%. The US government shutdown has dragged down the economy and employment, and the tightening of financial market liquidity has increased market volatility. The US stock market's upward trend has slowed, and concerns about high valuations and potential AI industry bubbles have increased. The domestic stock market is fluctuating at a high level, and the divergence between stock market performance and fundamentals persists [9][10][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed performance. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.09%. The US government's continued shutdown, tightened financial market liquidity, and better - than - expected ADP employment data in October have reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. The Bank of England kept its policy unchanged, and the yields of major global government bonds tend to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rebounded to 1.808%, and the domestic bond market continued to fluctuate [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, the yen rose 0.37%, the Swiss franc dropped 0.07%, the South Korean won dropped 2.2%, the New Zealand dollar dropped 1.8%, and the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Indian rupee closed down, while the peso, real, and ringgit closed up [22][23][25] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold oscillated slightly lower, closing at $4001 per ounce. The international gold price is fluctuating around $4000, with some bottom - fishing signs in the market. However, the uncertainty of a Fed rate cut in December and the temporary liquidity tightening in the US financial market have increased market volatility, and gold lacks upward momentum in the short term. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [26][28] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The government shutdown has led to passive liquidity tightening. The balance in the US Treasury's TGA account has significantly increased, resulting in a passive tightening effect, raising overnight interest rates and the US dollar index. This has led to a weakening of market risk appetite, and most assets have declined. It is expected that the government will reopen soon, and once it does, market risk appetite will recover [29][31][32] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Release of the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes - Tuesday: Release of the US October NFIB Small Business Confidence Index - Wednesday: US Treasury Secretary Besent will give a speech - Thursday: Release of the Bank of Canada's interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Release of China's October social retail sales and industrial added value [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil is "Volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the current decline in palm oil prices depends on four factors: whether the October MPOB data meets market expectations, the improvement of India's palm oil procurement, the production prospects in the producing areas from November to December, and the possibility of the implementation of biofuel policies in Indonesia and the United States [3] - The logic supporting the medium - to long - term rise of palm oil still exists, but short - term supply pressure is prominent. The upside space for the 01 contract is limited, while the 05 contract may present long - position opportunities and P2601 - P2605 reverse spread opportunities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 10 - Month Palm Oil Price Decline Review 1.1 The Beginning of the Current Decline: Unexpected Inventory Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil in September - After the double - festival holiday in October, the palm oil price showed a strong rebound trend, but the MPOB September report on October 10th showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory reached 2360000 tons, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a 21 - month high [2][13] - In terms of production, the decline in production in the Malay Peninsula was offset by the increase in production in Sabah and Sarawak. In terms of exports, affected by the export tax adjustment in Indonesia and Argentina, and the substitution of soybean oil, Malaysia's overall export situation was not ideal. In terms of apparent demand, it is speculated that the large - scale inventory accumulation may be due to increased smuggling from Indonesia to Malaysia [14][15] 1.2 The Core of the Current Decline: Weaker - than - expected Reality and the Weakening of Strong Future Expectations - The continuous negative data of Malaysian palm oil and the lack of confidence in future strong expectations accelerated the decline. The MPOA's forecast of a more than 10% increase in production from October 1 - 20 far exceeded market expectations, and the decline in export data further increased the inventory pressure [18][22] - Indonesian data and policies also exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market. Although the review of illegal plantations in Indonesia may affect future production, the current production data has not shown a negative impact. The market is also divided on the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy [25][27] Palm Oil Price Outlook for the Future: Rebound Imminent or Not Yet at the Bottom? Short - Term Outlook - Key factors include the difference between the MPOB data and market expectations and whether November data shows an increasing production trend. If the data meets expectations, prices may stop falling and stabilize; if it is better than expected, there may be a limited rebound; if it is worse than expected, prices may continue to fall [32] - In terms of supply, it is expected that the production of Malaysian palm oil in November will decline slightly following normal seasonal changes. In terms of demand, India and Pakistan's restocking demand and Indonesia's B40 implementation progress need to be focused on [32][38][41] Long - Term Outlook - The core drivers are Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biofuel policy. If Indonesia's B50 policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, the increase in palm oil demand is expected to be 200000 - 300000 tons. Whether the upside space can be opened depends on the balance between production and biofuel demand [46][50] Investment Strategies and Suggestions - Short - term: Pay attention to the MPOB report and November high - frequency data. After the bearish sentiment in the market subsides, focus on the opportunity of a small - scale rebound, but the space is expected to be limited. If the data is more bearish than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract, with a support level of 8200 yuan [51] - Medium - to long - term: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas, restocking in the consuming areas, and biofuel policies of relevant countries. Consider long - position opportunities for the 05 contract during the Ramadan trading period from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of next year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply has little change after NIMBA Mining initiated the ship transfer procedure. The alumina price has a theoretical downward space, but over - speculation is not advisable. The industry is in an over - supply stage, and a bearish approach can be taken if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are resuming production, but environmental controls in the north will reduce output. The supply of domestic ore is hard to improve in the short term. Guinea ore is priced at 71 - 72 dollars/dry ton, while downstream enterprises' purchase intention is at 69 - 70 dollars/ton. NIMBA Mining has initiated a 200,000 - ton ore ship transfer, and about 1.5 million tons of port inventory is to be exported. Some inland mines in Guinea will increase shipments in November. Newly - arrived ore was 3.845 million tons, including 2.793 million tons from Guinea and 1.052 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China is 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2837.5 yuan/ton, down 33.7 yuan/ton. The import port price was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged. Electrolytic aluminum plants are starting winter storage, and alumina enterprises are mainly fulfilling long - term contracts. The Australian alumina is priced at about 320 dollars/ton, and the cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2828 yuan/ton, with the northern theoretical import profit dropping to about - 26 yuan/ton. The domestic full - cost of alumina is 2819 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is 89 yuan/ton. Some enterprises' roasting was suspended due to pollution warnings, while some increased production slightly. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with 96.85 million tons in operation, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 84.5% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianlong Mining stopped 27 electrolytic cells due to pollution warnings, affecting about 20,000 tons of production capacity. Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum plans to start 60 electrolytic cells on November 21, 2025, with a production capacity of about 66,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.233 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the operating capacity at 29.551 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the northern port inventory increased temporarily, and the inventory in other places also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 253,654 tons, an increase of 16,487 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - **Rise in Australian FOB Price and Decrease in Import Profit**: As of November 7, the Australian alumina price was about 320 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from October 31. The cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The domestic market declined slightly, and the northern theoretical import profit dropped to about - 26 yuan/ton. Due to overseas production cuts and upcoming Indonesian capacity, there is still pressure on overseas alumina prices [16] - **Profit and Loss of Alumina Enterprises and Production Expectations**: The alumina spot price has been falling for three months. Based on the October average price, about 28.95 million tons of the total 98.25 million tons of operating capacity of 39 alumina enterprises are in full - cost loss, accounting for 29.47%. The cash - cost loss capacity is 3.45 million tons, accounting for 3.51%. Losses are mainly in enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by environmental controls, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to stop 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8. It had stopped 2 furnaces in late October due to pollution warnings and resumed on October 31 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][23] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][38][41] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, total social inventory, port inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions are presented [44][47][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contradiction in the bond market is between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are favorable for the bond market, but economic data can no longer drive the bond market to strengthen. The stock market has an obvious impact on the bond market, but it is difficult to predict overseas factors and short - term stock market trends. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to become the main trading theme [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From November 3rd to 9th, Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. On Monday, the stock market recovered, and Treasury bond futures were weakly oscillating. On Tuesday, the stock market fell, and the bond market was waiting for the central bank's bond - buying news. On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher due to the central bank's bond - buying news and lower overseas risk appetite but weakened as the domestic equity market rose. On Thursday, with a calm news background, the stock index was strong, and Treasury bond futures fell. On Friday, the morning session was strong, but the bond market weakened in the afternoon due to concerns about the new fund fee regulations. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend [1][11] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Next week, the bond market will still face the contradiction between weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite. Fundamentals are expected to be weak as the economic indicators in October may be poor due to limited growth - stabilizing policies in September - October and the intensifying Sino - US trade war. The impact of the equity market on the bond market is significant, but it is difficult to predict short - term stock market trends because of the domestic policy window period and the complexity of overseas factors. The news of the new fund fee regulations may disrupt the market, but it is unlikely to be the main trading theme. Overall, the bond market is expected to oscillate [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5139.97 billion yuan and a net financing of 2883.44 billion yuan. 32 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 916.07 billion yuan and a net financing of - 359.56 billion yuan. 430 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 5278.60 billion yuan and a net financing of 1509.90 billion yuan [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of November 7th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.59%, 1.81%, and 2.16% respectively, up 3.04, 2.38, 1.91, and 1.35 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened by 0.05bp to 41.35bp, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed by 0.47bp and 0.56bp respectively [25] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures changed from rising to falling. As of November 7th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.472, 105.920, 108.475, and 116.030 yuan respectively, down 0.072, 0.145, 0.190, and 0.610 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 26156, 53541, 72555, and 114770 lots respectively, down 15303, 18919, 11637, and 20960 lots from last week. The open interests were 83061, 177685, 289869, and 180046 lots respectively, with changes of + 2363, + 7744, + 12390, and - 3495 lots from last week [34][39] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was strong, and the IRR of Treasury bond futures was relatively high. In the second half, the market adjusted. For stable returns, investors can choose contracts with high IRR for positive arbitrage strategies [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of November 7th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts (2512 - 2603) were + 0.044, + 0.040, + 0.250, and + 0.240 yuan respectively, down 0.002, 0.035, 0.010, and 0.050 yuan from the previous weekend. Next week, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, but it is not enough to significantly widen the inter - delivery spreads [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan this week. As of November 7th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.47%, 1.41%, 1.33%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 2.46, - 4.21, + 0.60, and - 1.70 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.97 trillion yuan, 1.27 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.59%, higher than last week [50][53][55] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of November 7th, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.5477 from the previous weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.11%, the same as last week, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 229.7 basis points. The US government is still shut down, and the Fed officials are cautious about inflation due to low data visibility [59] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board, and agricultural product prices generally rose. As of November 7th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3531.08, 6399.37, and 1584.31 points respectively, down 25.59, 86.53, and 6.51 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 18.23, 5.78, and 7.04 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.43, 0.09, and 0.00 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [62] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - For the short - term oscillating bond market, it is recommended to observe more and trade less. For the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to positive arbitrage and widening the basis due to the relatively high IRR of some contracts. For the yield curve strategy, if worried about the stock market's strength, stay on the sidelines. For the inter - delivery strategy, although the short - sellers' motivation to roll over positions will increase, the inter - delivery spreads are unlikely to widen significantly [2][17][18][19]