研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 3 月 31 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2505 的期货价格下跌 62 元至 6038 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2505 持仓量为 2.49 万手，持仓-190 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级瓶 片价格下跌 20 至 6090 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格下跌 15 至 6110 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 30.75 万吨，较上周增加 1.65 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.3%，较上周提升 3.87%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5699 元，增加 1.16%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-197 元/吨，环比减少 37.1%。 2、需求 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Green Dahua Futures Breeding Industry Quarterly Report - Corn Mid - line Range Operation, Continuous Increase in Pig Supply, Egg Center of Gravity Moving Down, Near - term Weak and Long - term Strong [2] - Report Date: March 30, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Xiaojun [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Corn**: Mid - term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the domestic supply pattern may gradually tighten, and the price has partially reflected the upward expectation. Long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost. The trading strategy is to maintain a range trading idea for the long - term, a low - buying idea for the mid - term, and the short - term price will run in the range of 2250 - 2300 [17][108][109]. - **Pigs**: In 2025, the pig supply enters an upward cycle, and the supply in the second quarter will continue to increase, which may put pressure on the spot price. The futures price will follow the spot price for basis repair trading, and attention can be paid to the band trading opportunities when the price rises and meets resistance [62][64][113]. - **Eggs**: Mid - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter is expected to increase, and the breeding profit may turn negative. Long - term, if the capacity reduction in the first half of the year is less than expected, the supply pressure may continue to the second half of the year. Before large - scale culling, maintain a short - selling idea [85][89][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上期回顾 - **Market Performance in the First Quarter**: Corn futures broke through and rose, with the 2505 contract rising 1.88% to 2271 yuan/ton; pig futures fluctuated strongly, with the 2505 contract rising 1.93% to 13450 yuan/ton; egg futures broke down, with the 2505 contract falling 7.62% to 3017 yuan/ton [9][13]. - **Strategy Review**: In early December 2024, it was suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of buying corn on dips. After the Spring Festival, it was continuously suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling pigs and eggs on rallies [13]. 3.2本期分析 3.2.1 Corn - **Macro Logic**: The domestic and foreign liquidity is looser than expected, and the geopolitical situation has improved, so the macro - driving force has weakened [16]. - **Industry Logic**: It may enter the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [17]. - **Supply - Demand Logic** - **Supply**: Globally, the corn production and inventory have been reduced, and the supply situation is gradually tightening. In the US, the supply - demand remains relatively loose. In China, in the long - term, there is still a gap between production and demand, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. In the 24/25 year, the import volume is expected to decrease significantly, and the domestic supply - demand pattern may shift from loose to basically balanced. In the medium - term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the supply pattern may gradually tighten. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the policy grain release rhythm, wheat substitution scale, etc. [17] - **Consumption**: In 2025, the pig production capacity increases, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - eating poultry remains high. The feed consumption maintains rigid demand, and the deep - processing consumption is stable with a slight increase, providing rigid support for the corn price. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the inventory - building strength of downstream feed enterprises and the changes in the存栏 of pigs and poultry [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term, maintain a range trading idea; mid - term, maintain a low - buying idea with a neutral target of 2350; short - term, the price runs in the range of 2250 - 2300, with support at 2250 - 2260 and resistance at 2300 - 2310 [18][109]. 3.2.2 Pigs - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, focus on the interaction between China's CPI trend and pig prices. In February 2025, the CPI was - 0.7% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of the Spring Festival month shift, the CPI still increased year - on - year [60][111]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the background of the normalization of diseases after African swine fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant periodic fluctuations in pig prices, with a shorter cycle and higher frequency. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over, and enterprises with low costs and good financial conditions continue to increase capacity utilization and expand market share [61][112]. - **Supply - Demand Logic** - **Supply**: Excluding the impact of winter diseases, the pig supply in 2025 enters an upward cycle. The sow存栏 data and new - born piglet data indicate that the supply in the second quarter will continue to increase, especially the incremental pork from group weight - gain and second - fattening after the Spring Festival. The spot price may be under pressure, and the support level is 13 yuan/kg [62][64][113]. - **Consumption**: The pork consumption is relatively rigid, mainly following seasonal patterns in the short - term, and long - term attention should be paid to the transformation of the consumption structure [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price will follow the spot price for basis repair trading. Pay attention to the band trading opportunities when the price rises and meets resistance. The upper pressure levels for LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 are 13700 - 14000, 13600 - 13700, and 14300 - 14500 respectively [64][115]. 3.2.3 Eggs - **Macro Logic**: The domestic and foreign liquidity release is less than expected. Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes [84][117]. - **Industry Logic**: The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for 4 years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase, which will change the breeding subject structure and production efficiency [84][117]. - **Supply - Demand Logic** - **Supply**: The存栏 of grandparent - stock egg - laying chickens increases, and the import proportion rises significantly. The存栏 of laying hens is slowly increasing. The culling rhythm is slow due to breeding profits. In the second quarter, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory level may be higher than the same period [85][87][118]. - **Consumption**: The downstream consumption improved in late February, and it is expected to increase in March, but the increase may be limited due to lower vegetable prices [85][118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Before large - scale culling, maintain a short - selling idea. If large - scale culling starts, close short positions on near - term contracts and consider long positions on far - term contracts [90][122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the first two months of this year, the Chinese economy grew steadily, with industrial production and fixed - asset investment growth better than market expectations, social retail sales growing steadily, and export growth slowing slightly. The urban survey unemployment rate in February was slightly higher than the same period last year. With the continuous release of the effects of the package of incremental policies in the fourth quarter of last year and the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and other macro - policies this year, the Chinese economy in the first quarter is expected to be stable and improving, with the GDP year - on - year growth rate expected to exceed 5%. However, the economy still faces difficulties and challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and many risk hidden dangers, and external demand changes have great uncertainties in the future, requiring continuous efforts in domestic demand [68]. Summary by Relevant Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment was 5261.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, better than the market expectation of 3.8%. In 2024, it increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Generalized infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 9.95% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 7.1%. Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 9.2%. Real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year - on - year, slightly worse than the market expectation [6]. Real Estate Market - From January to February, the sales area of new commercial housing was 107.46 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%, and the sales volume was 1025.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. In February, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, ending the upward trend since October 2024. The second - hand housing prices in second - and third - tier cities also declined. The national second - hand housing price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but the decline rate has slowed down compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased year - on - year in the first quarter [10][13][20]. Industrial Production - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 5.1%. Among them, the mining industry increased by 4.3%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 1.1% [23]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to February, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing compared with the whole year of 2024. The manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a year - on - year profit increase of 4.8%, while the mining industry's profit decreased by 25.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 13.5% [27]. Social Consumption - From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 8373.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.5%. The sales of communication equipment and other consumer goods increased significantly year - on - year, while the sales of automobiles decreased [30][33]. Foreign Trade - In the first two months, China's total import and export value was 909.37 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Exports were 539.94 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and imports were 369.43 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Exports to ASEAN, the United States, and other regions showed different growth trends [36]. Social Financing - In the first two months of 2025, the increment of social financing scale was 9.29 trillion yuan, 1.32 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The core reason was the increase in net financing of government bonds [42]. RMB Loans - In the first two months, new RMB loans were 6.14 trillion yuan, 230 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The structure of enterprise loans was not good, with a significant year - on - year decrease in medium - and long - term loans [45]. Money Supply - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) increased by 7.0% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The balance of narrow - money (M1) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the overall growth rate of M1 in the first two months was still low [48]. Price Index - The average CPI from January to February decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. In February, the CPI decreased by 0.7% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The PPI in February decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [51][61]. Unemployment Rate - In February, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [67].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the rapid growth of trading volume and open interest in the Singapore Exchange (SGX) in the past two years, explores the influencing factors of its market scale and structure changes, and provides suggestions for the development of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) iron ore futures and options. The DCE and SGX are complementary, and the DCE should build an iron ore derivatives system with Chinese characteristics and international competitiveness based on its local advantages and by learning from the international experience of the SGX [4][25]. 3. Summary by Section Background Introduction The SGX has experienced significant scale expansion in recent years, with double - digit growth in the trading volume and open interest of its derivatives market for two consecutive years. Its development is driven by the increasing hedging needs of enterprises along the "Belt and Road" and the implementation of an international development strategy. Studying the SGX can provide reference for the construction of the DCE's iron ore derivatives market [4]. Singapore Exchange Situation Introduction - **Product Function**: The SGX's iron ore swap is an over - the - counter (OTC) derivative that manages iron ore price risks for global investors and enterprises. It is cash - settled based on the difference between the fixed price and the floating price linked to the IODEX index [5]. - **Trading Characteristics**: It uses the US dollar for pricing and settlement, has a cash - delivery model, and standardized contract terms after central clearing. It allows cross - asset margin offset and has specific trading activity peaks [5][6]. - **Participant Ecosystem**: The market has a multi - level and international participant ecosystem, including upstream producers, traders, downstream steel enterprises, end - users, and financial institutions [7]. Analysis of Influencing Factors on Market Scale and Structure Changes - **Market Fluctuations**: Global iron ore market volatility has increased the demand for hedging and arbitrage. The SGX's iron ore swap has become a key hedging tool, and geopolitical factors have also contributed to its development [8]. - **Diversified Participants**: Traditional participants remain active, while the influence of hedge funds and quantitative institutions has risen. Asian funds have expanded, and retail investor participation has increased [9][10]. - **Exchange Strategy**: The SGX has launched differentiated products, optimized the trading platform, and implemented cost - reduction policies to enhance its competitiveness [11]. - **Geopolitical Changes**: The "East - West dual - center" pattern in the global commodity market has evolved, and the SGX has strengthened its position as a regional financial hub [12]. - **Cross - Market Arbitrage**: The price difference between the SGX and DCE iron ore derivatives markets has formed an arbitrage mechanism, promoting the reconstruction of the global iron ore derivatives ecosystem [14]. - **ESG Trends**: The SGX has launched relevant products to meet the needs of the low - carbon transformation of the steel industry and attracted ESG investors, promoting its transformation into a sustainable financial innovation high - ground [15]. Advantages of SGX Iron Ore Swap Development - **Internationalization and Dollar Settlement**: The US dollar - based mechanism reduces risks and costs for global participants and reflects global supply - demand balance [16][18]. - **Cross - Time - Zone Trading**: It provides about 16 hours of continuous trading, complementing the DCE and enabling real - time risk management [19]. - **OTC Flexibility and Cash Settlement**: The OTC model allows customized contracts, and cash settlement simplifies operations, attracting non - physical - background participants [20]. - **Open Regulatory Environment**: Singapore's policies facilitate capital flow, while the DCE is restricted by capital account controls [21]. - **Index Linkage**: The SGX's iron ore swap is linked to the widely used IODEX index, enhancing its pricing authority [22]. - **Multi - Level Tool Ecosystem**: It forms a synergistic effect with other products, supporting complex hedging strategies [24]. Suggestions for DCE Iron Ore Futures and Options - **Accelerate Internationalization**: Broaden access for overseas investors, simplify approval processes, and pilot cross - border margin recognition. Build a multi - language trading system for "Belt and Road" countries [26]. - **Improve Product Matrix**: Launch Asian options, develop细分品种, create "green derivatives", and accelerate the layout of index products [28]. - **Optimize Trading Mechanisms**: Upgrade the market - making system and pilot extended night - trading hours [29]. - **Build a Collaborative Ecosystem**: Support small and medium - sized steel mills and strengthen investor education for "Belt and Road" countries [30]. - **Balance Policy Intervention**: Use market - based adjustment methods and reduce administrative "window guidance" [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic vegetable oil sector rose significantly driven by the overnight sharp increase in US soybean oil prices, which was boosted by good US soybean oil export data and the Trump administration's compromise on US biodiesel policy [3] - Different types of oils have different market outlooks: soybean oil is expected to have increased supply in the long - term despite a short - term rebound; palm oil offers a long - term short - selling opportunity after a short - term rebound; and rapeseed oil is suitable for long - position allocation under macro - policy interference [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Movement - Overnight US soybean oil prices rose 3.58% to 44.26 cents per pound, driving the domestic vegetable oil sector up, due to good US soybean oil export data and the Trump administration's compromise on US biodiesel policy [3] 3.2 Oil Data and News - As of the week ending March 13, 2025, the net sales volume of US 2024/25 soybean oil was 34,200 tons, a 50% decrease from last week and a 15% decrease from the four - week average [3] - The Trump administration asked oil and biofuel producers to reach an agreement on the next stage of the national biofuel policy, and initial talks suggest a significant increase in soybean oil demand in the biodiesel industry [3] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Soybean oil**: About 20 million tons of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in April - May, domestic oil mills will enter a new peak production period after April 20. Current domestic soybean oil inventory is slightly decreasing, but the basis is weak, downstream consumption is light, and supply is expected to increase in the long - term despite a short - term rebound [4] - **Palm oil**: The Ramadan in Southeast Asia is about to end, and the active production season will start after April. Malaysia's export data in March was poor, procurement demand from China and India was light, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The March supply - demand report is expected to be bearish, providing a long - term short - selling opportunity after a short - term rebound [4] - **Rapeseed oil**: There is an anti - dumping investigation on Sino - US rapeseed, and it is the growing season for Canadian rapeseed, so rapeseed supply is currently tight. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but high inventory is not a reason to short. It is advisable to have a long - position allocation under macro - policy interference [4]

| | | | 【行情复盘】 周四铁矿主力 2505 合约报收于 789.0，上涨 1.28%。次主力 2509 合约报收于 748.0， 上涨 1.56%。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 1-2 月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 额 9109.9 亿元，同比下降 0.3%。。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局：前 2 月钢铁行业亏损 15.5 亿元.采矿业实现利润总额 1410.3 亿元， 同比下降 25.2%； | | | | | 3、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2025 年 4 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | | | | 量共计 3959 万台，较去年同期生产实绩上涨 4.3%，不同产品表现出分化趋势。 | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 4、3 月 27 日，全国主港铁矿石成交 84.30 万吨，环比减 14.2%；237 家主流贸易商 | | | | | 建筑钢材成交 9.86 万吨，环比减 4%。 | | | | | 5、本周，五大钢材品种供应 869.5 万吨，周环比增 ...

| 向 格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | | --- | EIA原油周度数据报告 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,截止至上周,美国商业原油库存4.34亿桶,比前一周下降334万桶。美国汽 油库存2.39亿桶,比前一周下降145万桶;馏分油库存量1.14亿桶,比前一周下降42万桶。原油、汽油库存均下降,为原 油提供上行动力;此外,美国宣布制裁委内瑞拉,美国方面表示将对从委内瑞拉购买原油或天然气的任何国家的所有进 口产品加征25%的关税,将导致委内瑞拉原油产量下降,进而减少全球原油供应,利多原油价格。 | | 2025年3月21日 | 2025年3月14日 | 变化 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存(千桶) | 433.627 | 436.968 | -3.341 | -0.76% | | 库欣原油库存(千桶) | 22.705 | 23.460 | -755 | -3.22% | | 美国汽油库存(千桶) | 239.128 | 240,574 | -1.446 | -0.60% | | ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 视为潜在的资金流向目的地之一。 | | --- | | 7、小米宣布以"先旧后新"方式配售 8 亿股，募资 425 亿港元，成为港股年内继 | | 比亚迪后又一起大规模配售案。小米将推进全品类和全球化的端化，并在海外建新 | | 零售，通过全球基建实现模式输出，以实现其持续质量增长。 | | 8、Mercuria 金属交易主管 Kostas Bintas 估计，约有 50 万吨铜正被运往美国，导 | | 致全球其他市场严重短缺。他预测，随着短缺的加剧，LME 的价格可能会跳升至每 | | 吨 12000 美元以上。 | | 9、数据显示，黄金 ETF 近一年合计规模增长超 500 亿元，多只头部产品规模增长 | | 冲破百亿元大关。 | | 10、据媒体援引消息人士报道，美国总统特朗普考虑采用两步走的方式实施对等关 | | 税措施，在对贸易伙伴发起调查的同时，利用紧急权力先行征收关税。 | | 【市场逻辑】 | | 行情回顾：周三两市主要指数窄幅波动，成交额缩减至 1.15 万亿元，本轮快跌基 | | 本结束。 ...

2025年3月26日 现货市场栖霞产区冷库中交易速度一般,果农卖货积极性不高,买卖稍显僵持。库存纸袋晚富士80#价格在 3.00-3.50元/斤（片红、一二级）;纸袋晚富士80#以上价格2.50-3.00元/斤（片红，统货）, 纸袋晚富士80#以上三 级价格1.30-2.00元/斤,库存条纹80#一二级价格3.50-4.00元/斤。洛川产区苹果走货速度尚可,客商存货交易顺畅, 主流行情继续稳硬调整。目前库存70#以上纸袋晚富士半商品价格3.60-3.70元/斤,库存晚富士统货价格3.20-3.40元/ 厅,库存高次果70#以上2.50-2.70元/斤。产区苹果交易尚可,西部客商货继续有序出货,走货顺畅,辽宁产区好货 交易活跃、果农惜售情绪明显。新季苹果尚未进入花期，若4月遭遇倒春寒恐加剧供应担忧,建议关注西北产区天气 变化及05合约交割前车板交割进展。 格林大华期货有限公司 ELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO., LTD. 苹果主力跳空高开,涨幅逐渐扩大超6%。 截至2月28日,全国主产区苹果冷库库存量降至571.03万吨,环比减少31.39万吨,较2024年春节前的610万吨库 在已去化47.97万 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 3 月 26 日星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周二成长类指数小幅调整，周期价值类指数窄幅整理。两市成交额 1.25 万亿元， | | | | | 成交额明显缩量。中证 1000 指数收 6310 点，跌 49 点，跌幅-0.78%；中证 500 指 | | | | | 数收 5946 点，跌 22 点，跌幅-0.37%；沪深 300 指数收 3932 点，跌 2 点，跌幅-0.06%； | | | | | 上证 50 指数收 2691 点，跌 1 点，跌幅-0.05%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是煤 | | | | 炭 | ETF、光伏 ETF 龙头、电力 ETF、绿色电力 ETF、养 ...