Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 22 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1177.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 3.21%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 | | | | | 收于 1672.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.22%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1189.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 1.06%；J2601 合约收于 1687.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.9%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、海关总署最新数据显示，2025 年 9 月份，中国进口动力煤（非炼焦煤）3508 万吨， | | | | | 同比下降 5.76%，环比增长 7.69%。2025 年 1-9 月份，中国累计 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with the US economy affected by wrong policies and the global economy entering the top - region [2]. - AI - related fields are rapidly developing, with multiple technological breakthroughs and new product launches, and AI toys are reshaping the consumer market [1]. - The US banking industry has increased concerns about credit losses, leading to increased merger expectations [1]. - The Japanese stock market has reached new highs, but the market is now focusing on the political stability of the new government [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Information - OpenAI is facing absolute computing power scarcity, and it has a resource - allocation mechanism for research and application [1]. - DeepSeek has launched a revolutionary OCR model that solves the computing power problem of AI in processing long documents and has high - efficiency data generation capabilities [1][2]. - Yushu (Unitree) has released a four - legged robot training platform and a 180 - cm humanoid robot Unitree H2 with good balance and control capabilities [1][2]. - AI toys are becoming a new consumer hotspot across all age groups and are in a "golden age" of development, breaking the scene boundaries of traditional toys [1]. - The nuclear fusion technology competition is intensifying in the US, covering two key tracks: small modular reactors for AI power and future - oriented fusion technology [1]. - US banks' concerns about credit losses are promoting merger expectations, and regulatory and political factors support merger discussions [1]. - Kōichi Hamada has been elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan, and the Japanese stock market has reached new highs, but market attention has shifted to the political stability of the new government [1]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - China's industrial added value in September 2025 increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been raised to 7.0995 [1]. - Traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points in the upcoming meetings [1]. - China is the preferred stock investment market for emerging markets, and 100 surveyed institutions manage $423 billion in emerging - market assets [2]. - Huawei has announced the evolution and goals of Ascend chips, with its computing power "super - node + cluster" leading NVIDIA by more than a year [2]. - Although AI infrastructure investment has reached a new high in nominal terms, the proportion of US AI investment in GDP is still less than 1% [2]. - TSMC's CEO said that AI demand is stronger than expected [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stabilization of the stock market is crucial for expanding the property - income channels of urban and rural residents and enhancing people's consumption confidence. A stable stock market can inject capital into the real economy and promote consumption through wealth, psychological, and expected effects [1][2][3]. - From the 15th Five - Year Plan period, people's consumption demand will shift from survival - type to development - type, and the consumption structure will change from being dominated by commodity consumption to a balance between commodity and service consumption. Service consumption will be a key area for expanding consumption in China [2]. - The ETF market has seen significant net inflows in October 2025, with equity - based ETFs being the main driving force. Many foreign institutions believe that the current valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, making them attractive for investment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, with the rise of overseas markets, the major domestic stock indices fluctuated upwards, and the communication sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.87 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase. The CSI 300 index closed at 4607 points, up 69 points or 1.53%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3007 points, up 32 points or 1.09%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7185 points, up 115 points or 1.64%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7344 points, up 104 points or 1.45% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to communication, 5G, and consumer electronics led the gains, while coal, energy, and dividend ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, consumer electronics, communication equipment, and other sectors led the gains, while forestry, coal mining, and other sectors led the losses [1]. - The futures of the CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices saw net inflows of 3600 million, 2400 million, 1700 million, and 500 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - As of October 13, the number of new A - share accounts exceeded 20 million, a year - on - year increase of over 50%, which has effectively increased residents' property income [1][3]. - Most domestic families allocate over 20% of their financial assets to the securities market, and the fluctuation of stock book value affects residents' wealth and consumption willingness [1][3]. - Morgan Stanley believes that factors such as upcoming dividend distributions, stable interest rates, and 500 billion yuan in structural financial policy tools will support the re - evaluation of Chinese bank stocks [2]. - AI toys are reshaping the industry landscape in the 2025 consumer market, becoming a new consumption hotspot across all age groups [2]. - OpenAI is facing a shortage of computing power, which restricts the release of many products [2]. - Concerns about credit losses in the US banking industry have increased the expectation of mergers and acquisitions [2]. - After the election of the new Japanese Prime Minister, the Japanese stock market has reached new highs, but the market is now focusing on the political stability of the new government [2]. - Morgan Chase believes that the competition in nuclear fusion technology is intensifying, with two key tracks attracting large amounts of capital [2]. Market Logic - With the rise of overseas markets, the domestic stock market rose on Tuesday. The increase in new A - share accounts and the net inflow of funds into the ETF market reflect the growing confidence of investors. The reasonable and low valuation of A - shares makes them attractive to foreign investors [1][3]. Future Outlook - The stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state, and the market is waiting for the clarity of Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month. The long positions of stock index futures should be mainly based on the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices [3]. - Traders are increasing their bets on the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points in the upcoming meetings [3]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the volatile market and the uncertainty of Sino - US negotiations, long positions should be mainly based on the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices [3]. - For stock index option trading, as the market is in a volatile and consolidating state, it is advisable to wait and see [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non - ferrous and precious metals sector is that gold and silver are both rated as having a volatile and bullish tendency [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold futures rose 3.82% to $4374.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 2.59% to $51.40 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 2.48% at 998.58 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.62% to 11973 yuan per kilogram [1] - As of October 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 11.45 tons from the previous day to 1058.66 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 272.38 tons from the previous day to 15769.78 tons [1] - China's GDP in Q3 2025 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations, and the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit range for gold and silver futures. As of the close of trading on October 21, 2025, the daily price limit range for gold and silver futures contracts was adjusted to 14%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions was adjusted to 15%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions was adjusted to 16% [1] - The US government continues to shut down. After Powell's speech, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the latest Fed Beige Book further consolidates the expectation of interest rate cuts, which boosts the safe - haven appeal of gold [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the US President, and they expressed a willingness to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict and will hold a meeting in Budapest. On October 18, the leaders of China - US economic and trade negotiations agreed to hold a new round of consultations soon, which helps reduce short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] - There was a historic short squeeze in the London silver market recently. The extreme market conditions amplified market volatility. After hitting a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17, the London silver spot price plunged by 6.7%. Gold continued to rise after a brief correction [1] - The world's largest gold and silver ETFs continued to buy, and gold remained strong [1] - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. After a short - term rapid decline and then a rebound, existing long positions should be held, but be cautious about chasing the rise [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a defensive state, waiting for the major deal between China and the United States at the end of the month. Enterprises' profit improvement expectations and policy support effects are still clear. In the short - term, domestic demand sectors may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the medium - to - long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently attractively valued for foreign investors. [1][2][3] - Foreign institutions are optimistic about the long - term value of the Chinese A - share market, as evidenced by their high - frequency research and subsequent substantial allocations. [2] - Traders are betting on the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points in the upcoming meetings. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, the major indices in the two markets opened higher, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated. The trading volume was 1.73 trillion yuan, showing a continued decline. The CSI 300 index closed at 4538 points, up 23 points or 0.53%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2974 points, up 7 points or 0.24%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7069 points, up 53 points or 0.76%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7239 points, up 53 points or 0.75%. [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were communication equipment ETF, coal ETF, etc., while those with the highest losses were gold stock ETF, mining ETF, etc. Among the sector indices in the two markets, forestry, cultivated diamonds, etc. had the highest gains, while precious metals, feed, etc. had the highest losses. [1] - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 indices had net outflows of 3 billion, 2.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 700 million yuan respectively. [1] Important Information - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. In the first three quarters, the output of industrial robots, service robots, and EMUs increased by 29.8%, 16.3%, and 8.6% respectively. [1] - From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% month - on - month. [1] - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry increased by 9.7% year - on - year; the retail sales of communication equipment, furniture, and sports and entertainment products increased by 16.2%, 16.2%, and 11.9% respectively. [1] - As of October 17, the net inflow of the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan. Equity ETFs contributed 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90%. More than 50 index funds are planned to be issued this month. [1][2] - Unitree released the 180 - cm - tall Unitree H2 humanoid robot, which has 31 degrees of freedom and can perform complex movements. Unitree is deepening its "full - size, full - scenario, full - price" strategy. [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that although AI infrastructure investment has reached a new high in nominal terms, it is not exaggerated compared with historical technology cycles. The current AI investment in the US accounts for less than 1% of GDP, while in historical technology cycles such as railways, electrification, and IT, the investment peak accounted for 2 - 5% of GDP. [2] - Goldman Sachs expects that after the full application of generative AI, the labor productivity in the US will increase by 15% over the next 10 years, bringing 8 trillion US dollars in capital income to US enterprises. [2] - A Morgan Chase report indicates that after the realization of autonomous driving, the driver cost, which accounts for 75% - 80% of the total transaction volume, will be eliminated, and the entire travel market may have about 50% more profit space. [2] - According to the weekly report on the coal mining industry, last week, port coal prices increased significantly. On October 17, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was 748 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 39 yuan/ton), and the pit - mouth coal prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 50 yuan, 45 yuan, and 46 yuan per ton respectively. [2] - A Morgan Stanley research report shows that Oracle's investor day disclosed three key positive factors, but several core issues remain unanswered, and the market's skeptical attitude may continue. [2] Market Logic The major indices in the two markets opened higher, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated on Monday, with the trading volume shrinking to 1.73 trillion yuan. The net inflow of the ETF market in October reached 99.161 billion yuan, with equity ETFs as the main driving force. Despite short - term market fluctuations, enterprises' profit improvement expectations and policy support effects are clear. Domestic demand sectors may perform well in the short - term, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery are the medium - to - long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are attractively valued for foreign investors. [1][2] 后市展望 The market is still in a defensive state, waiting for the major deal between China and the United States at the end of the month. The coal ETF had a high gain. In September, the industrial added - value data was good. The net inflow of the ETF market in October was significant, and foreign institutions are optimistic about the long - term value of A - shares. Traders are betting on the Fed to cut interest rates. The major indices in the two markets opened higher, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated. Futures multi - positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices. [1][2][3] Trading Strategy - For futures directional trading: The market is in a defensive state, waiting for the clarity of the major deal between China and the United States at the end of the month. Futures multi - positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices. [3] - For index option trading: The market is in a defensive state, so it is advisable to wait and see. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The economic growth rate in Q3 2025 met expectations, but due to the high base caused by policy stimulus in Q4 2024, the growth rate in Q4 2025 may be the lowest of the year. China is expected to achieve an annual economic growth target of around 5% in 2025 [4][22][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were 5.4% and 5.2% respectively. The Q3 GDP grew 1.1% quarter-on-quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year-on-year [1][5]. Investment - From January to September, national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year-on-year, against a market expectation of flat growth. In September, fixed - asset investment decreased 0.07% month-on-month, showing an eight - month consecutive decline [2][8]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment (broad sense) grew 3.3% year-on-year, while narrow - sense infrastructure investment grew 1.1% year-on-year. Manufacturing investment grew 4.0% year-on-year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year-on-year [2][8]. - In September, manufacturing investment decreased 1.9% year-on-year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment decreased 4.6% year-on-year [8]. Real Estate - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 5.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased 7.9% year-on-year. In September, the sales of new commercial housing declined at an accelerated pace [11]. - In September, the prices of second - hand residential properties in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline. The prices in first - tier cities decreased 1.0% month-on-month, and the declines in second - and third - tier cities widened [11]. - In September, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased 11.0% year-on-year. The new construction area decreased 15.0% year-on-year, and the completed area increased 0.39% year-on-year [12]. Industry - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises grew 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The product sales rate was 96.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year but 2.1 percentage points lower than in September 2019 [3][13]. - In Q3 2025, the capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 74.6%, the lowest in the same period since 2017, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [14]. Foreign Trade - In September, China's exports denominated in US dollars grew 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The overall export growth in the first nine months was 6.1%, higher than the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. However, the export growth rate is likely to decline in Q4 due to the high base in Q4 last year [3][15][16]. Consumption - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations. The growth rate of consumer goods sales by限额以上 units in some categories slowed down, mainly due to high base effects and subsidy reductions [4][18]. Employment - In September, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and up 0.1 percentage point from the same month last year [4][21]. Policy and Outlook - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction. About 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments may be issued in Q4 [4][22][24]. - The suspension of 24% ad - valorem tariffs between China and the US is likely to be extended after November 10 [4][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - 'Year-on-year' comparison has limited significance, and it's advisable to compare with the same period in 2023. The supply increase in 2025 compared to Q1 2024 was expected. The comparison with 2023 shows that the decline in quarterly pig存栏 has significantly narrowed, indicating a continuous recovery in Q3 2025. The pig出栏 and pork production have increased, and the sow存栏 has been above the normal level despite two consecutive months of decline [10][12]. - The current pig production capacity cycle has started the de - capacity process, but it has just begun. The breeding sector has been in the loss cycle for less than two months, and the sow存栏 is expected to be slowly reduced. A significant decline in sow prices is needed to enter the next price - rising cycle [13]. - The main trading logic of live hog futures this year is the bearish view of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectation is basically fulfilled, it is trading the basis - repair logic. In the short - term, the futures price is approaching the spot price. In the medium - term, the hog出栏 is expected to increase until Q2 2026, and the futures will repair the basis according to the spot trend. In the long - term, it is recommended to wait for effective de - capacity before trading the far - month contract's upward trend [16]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 'Year - on - year' effective meaning is insufficient, focus on the comparison with the same period in 2023 - In Q1 - Q3 2025, the national production of pork, beef, and poultry increased by 3.0%, 3.3%, and 7.2% respectively, while mutton production decreased by 4.3%. The hog出栏 was 529.92 million, an increase of 1.8% year - on - year, and the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a 3.0% increase. At the end of Q3, the national hog存栏 was 436.8 million, up 2.3% year - on - year, and the sow存栏 was 40.35 million, down 0.7% year - on - year [3][4]. - Comparing with 2023, the hog存栏 at the end of Q1 - Q3 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year but decreased by 1.2% compared to 2023. The hog出栏 increased by 1.8% year - on - year but decreased by 1.3% compared to 2023. The pork production increased by 3% year - on - year and 1.56% compared to 2023. In Q3 2025, the hog出栏 was 163.73 million, a 1.2% increase compared to Q3 2023, and the pork production was 13.48 million tons, a 6.2% increase [10][12]. 2. Questions and Thoughts on the Pig Production Capacity Cycle Thinking 1: What stage is the current pig production capacity cycle in? - The previous report pointed out that the current pig price was in the second half of the second half of the epidemic - driven passive de - capacity cycle, and active/passive de - capacity had not started. Now, the sow存栏 has decreased for two consecutive months, indicating the start of de - capacity. The de - capacity has just begun, and the sow存栏 is expected to be slowly reduced. The breeding sector has been in the loss cycle for less than two months, and the ratio of sow price to hog price is still at 77%, which needs to drop to 50% - 60% for effective de - capacity [13]. Thinking 2: What is the main trading logic of live hog futures? - This year, the futures market mainly traded the bearish view of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectation is fulfilled, it trades the basis - repair logic. In the short - term, the futures price is approaching the spot price. In the medium - term, the hog出栏 is expected to increase until Q2 2026, and the futures will repair the basis according to the spot trend. In the long - term, it is recommended to wait for effective de - capacity before trading the far - month contract's upward trend [16].

Group 1 - The report is titled "Coal and Coke Data Flash - September 2025 Raw Coal Production Data" [1] Group 2 - The data includes the monthly cumulative production (in billion tons) and monthly production (in billion tons) of raw coal in China from 2020 - 2025 [2] Group 3 - In September, the decline in raw coal production narrowed. The output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and the decline was 1.4 percentage points narrower than that in August. The daily average output was 1.372 million tons. From January to September, the output of raw coal from industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.57 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector is "Slightly Bearish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic log market has shown a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The overall price trend is stable, but the supply is expected to increase due to holiday factors, and the demand is differentiated. As the peak - season demand is gradually released, the spot price has strong support, but attention should be paid to the volatility pressure brought by the hedging orders when the 11 - contract approaches the delivery month. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - The price of log futures has corrected. The closing price of the main 2601 contract is 835.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 1.33% [1] 3.2 Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week [1] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic softwood logs is 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from last week [1] - The average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from last week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The domestic log market has a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The prices in Shandong and Jiangsu are stable. Affected by holiday factors, the arrival volume is expected to increase to 550,500 cubic meters, with obvious concentrated arrival characteristics [1] - The demand side is differentiated. The average daily shipment volume in Shandong has slightly declined, and the purchase volume in Jiangsu has decreased due to sufficient pre - holiday restocking. The current inventory in Jiangsu can maintain a 15 - 20 - day production cycle [1] - In the week of September 26, the inventory of softwood logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters, including a 40,000 - cubic - meter decrease in radiata pine and a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease in North American timber. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 69,700 cubic meters, while that in Shandong increased slightly by 8,000 cubic meters [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]

Group 1: Report Core Information - As of October 18, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 231.62 tons, with a slight inventory build - up of 17 tons [3] - Inventory data from July 5, 2025, to October 18, 2025, shows various inventory levels and their month - on - month changes, such as on July 5, 2025, the inventory was 375 tons with a decrease of 16 tons compared to the previous period [6]