Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 一周走势 | | 河北 | | 1650 | 1650 | 0 | | | 河南 | | 1650 | 1630 | 20 | | | 山东 | | 1650 | 1640 | 10 | | | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1510 | 1510 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1640 | 1620 | 20 | | | 安徽 | | 1640 | 1630 | 10 | | | 黑龙江 | | 1730 | 1720 | 10 | | | 内蒙古 | | 1720 | 1700 | 20 | | | 河北东光 | | 1640 | 1630 | 10 | | | 工厂价 | 山东华鲁 | 1630 | 1620 | 10 | | | （元/吨） | 江苏灵谷 | 1680 | 1660 | 20 | | | 安徽昊源 | | 1630 | 1620 | 10 | | | 山东05基差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt supply this week decreased, with the production rate falling by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, and the expected production in November dropping by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream demand is weakening, with the overall demand remaining flat. Considering that the base price in Shandong is at a neutral level and the spot price is stable, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: The asphalt production rate this week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year. The expected production in November is 222.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 27.4 million tons (11.0%). Next week, the production rate will rise as some refineries stabilize production [1]. - Demand: The downstream industry production rates showed mixed trends this week, with the road asphalt production rate remaining flat at 34% due to funding and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat this week, near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: Crude oil prices declined. The Shandong asphalt base price is at a neutral level, and the spot price is basically stable. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.46% to 3009 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3000 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3086 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 6145 to 166,038 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped asphalt production, causing the production rate to fall by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year [1][4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) were - 4.3% and - 0.1% respectively, both showing a downward trend [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat at 14.5% compared to the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - For soda ash, the current week's开工率 is 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous value; the产量 is 72.09 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 1.83 from the previous value; the重质产量 is 39.62, a decrease of 1.47 from the previous value; the轻质产量 is 32.47, a decrease of 0.36 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the current week's开工率 is 74.854%, a decrease of 0.146% from the previous value; the产线条数 remains 222; the产量 is 111.0195 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 0.375 from the previous value [1]. Inventory - For soda ash, the厂内库存 is 164.44 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 6.29 from the previous value; the重质库存 is 88.73, a decrease of 1.98 from the previous value; the轻质库存 is 75.71, a decrease of 4.31 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 is 13.63 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the库存 is 6330.3 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), an increase of 5.6 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 remains 27.5 days [1]. Profit - For soda ash, the氨碱法毛利 is -38.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 15 from the previous value; the联产法毛利 is -153.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), an increase of 28.5 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the天然气利润 is -206.84 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 19.14 from the previous value; the石油焦利润 is 8.52 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 24 from the previous value; the煤制气利润 is 25.79 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 25.47 from the previous value [1]. Basis & Spread - For soda ash, the基差 is -30, an increase of 15 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 74, an increase of 8 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 169, a decrease of 14 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 113, a decrease of 19 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the基差 is 81, an increase of 33 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 130, an increase of 13 from the previous value [1].

Group 1: Report Core Data - Total port inventory this week was 15054.65, a decrease of 75.06 from last week [1] - The daily average port clearance volume this week was 329.92, an increase of 2.97 from last week [1] - The imported ore inventory of steel mills this week was 9001.23, a decrease of 74.78 from last week [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills this week was 291.68, a decrease of 0.95 from last week [1] - The arrival volume this week was 2268.9, a decrease of 472.30 from last week [1] - The output of domestic iron ore concentrate this week was 40.28, an increase of 0.16 from last week [1] - The daily average pig iron output this week was 236.28, a decrease of 0.60 from last week [1] - The steel mill start - up rate this week was 82.19, a decrease of 0.62 from last week [1] - The capacity utilization rate this week was 88.58, a decrease of 0.22 from last week [1] - The steel mill profitability rate this week was 37.66, a decrease of 1.3 from last week [1] - The inventory of coarse powder this week was 11550.01, a decrease of 50.74 from last week [1] - The inventory of lump ore this week was 1963.04, a decrease of 33.13 from last week [1] - The inventory of pellets this week was 293.17, a decrease of 11.62 from last week [1] - The inventory of iron concentrate this week was 1248.43, an increase of 20.43 from last week [1] - The inventory of trade ore this week was 9765.58, a decrease of 74.84 from last week [1] - The inventory of Brazilian ore this week was 6007.01, an increase of 44.33 from last week [1] - The inventory of Australian ore this week was 6226.24, a decrease of 100.28 from last week [1] Group 2: Data Sources and Notes - Data is sourced from Wind, Steel Union data, and compiled by Guantong Research [1] - Port data uses Mysteel's 45 - port data; steel mill data uses Mysteel's 247 - steel mill data; the daily average output of 126 iron concentrate mines is bi - weekly published data [1] - Red shading indicates newly updated data on the day, and gray shading indicates non - updated data on the day [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Information Morning Report - Release Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and the performance of various financial markets including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: US WTI crude oil was at $58.76 per barrel, Brent crude futures fell 0.63% to $63.11 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures dropped 0.15% to $4076.7 per ounce, COMEX silver futures declined 0.98% to $50.355 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: LME nickel, copper, and lead fell, while zinc, tin, and aluminum rose [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: Fuel oil, asphalt, rubber, and 20 - number rubber rose, while pulp, palm oil, and glass fell [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for six consecutive months [9]. - **Gold Exchange**: Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of market instability and asked members to take risk - control measures [9]. - **Trade and Economy**: China is implementing the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations. The source of the global semiconductor supply chain chaos is in the Netherlands [9][12]. - **Stock Market Policy**: The CSRC will strengthen system construction, risk prevention, and investor protection [10]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Morgan Stanley no longer expects a Fed rate cut in December, now forecasting three cuts in January, April, and June next year [10]. - **International Politics**: Ukraine's President Zelensky agreed to work on a peace plan, and Iran's military raised its combat readiness [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Soda Ash**: Total domestic soda ash inventory decreased by 3.68% to 164.44 million tons as of November 20 [14]. - **Pulp**: China's pulp port inventory rose 3.0% to 217.3 million tons [16]. - **Methanol**: East China port methanol inventory decreased by 1.57 million tons, and China's methanol production increased [17][18]. - **Fuel Oil and Distillates**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped, while middle and light distillate inventories rose [17]. - **Float Glass**: National float glass inventory increased slightly, production hit a four - month low, and production profits declined [17][18]. Metal Futures - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina inventory increased, and global and Chinese aluminum production data were reported [22]. - **Other Metals**: There were supply - demand imbalances in refined lead, nickel, and copper. China's imports of lithium carbonate and alumina changed [22]. - **Lithium Price**: BMI expects higher average prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide in China in 2025 [23]. - **Futures Policy**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees for lithium carbonate futures [23][24]. Agricultural Futures - **Pork**: The central reserve of frozen pork will have an auction of 6500 tons [28]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased, and China's palm oil import costs rose [29][30][32]. - **Soybeans and Wheat**: US private exporters reported sales of soybeans and wheat to China [33]. - **Sugarcane**: Thailand expects its 2025/26 sugarcane crushing volume to exceed 93 million tons [34]. - **Tariffs**: Trump modified tariffs on some Brazilian agricultural products [34]. Financial Markets Stocks - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, with solid - state battery and photovoltaic concept stocks dropping, and banks rising [36]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.58% [38]. - **IPO**: Moore Threads' IPO price was set at 114.28 yuan per share [39]. - **Corporate News**: NetEase's Q3 net income increased 8.2% [40]. Industries - **Digital Economy**: Guangdong aims to have the digital economy core industry's added - value account for over 16% of GDP by 2027 [41]. - **Battery Industry**: The battery industry is promoting anti - cut - throat competition [43]. - **Semiconductor**: China's chip design industry is expected to grow 29.4% in 2025 [43]. - **Salt Lake**: Qinghai will strengthen salt lake resource management [43]. - **Mobile Phones**: China's mobile phone shipments in September increased 10.1% year - on - year [44]. Overseas Markets - **US Economy**: US September non - farm payrolls increased, but unemployment rose. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is low [45]. - **US Policy**: Trump may delay semiconductor tariffs and will launch an AI plan [45]. - **US Real Estate**: US existing home sales in October increased 1.2% [46]. International Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: The three major US stock indexes fell, with Cisco and Boeing leading the decline [48]. - **European Stocks**: European stock indexes rose, driven by risk sentiment and corporate profit expectations [48]. - **Investment Advice**: It's not a good time to short large - cap tech stocks, and the S&P 500 is expected to rise [48][49]. - **Stock Exchange**: Singapore and Nasdaq will launch a "Global Listing Board" in mid - 2026 [49]. - **Corporate Earnings**: Walmart's Q3 revenue increased, and it will move its listing to Nasdaq [49]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees for lithium carbonate futures [51]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metals futures fell due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate - cut expectations [52]. - **Oil Warning**: Saudi Aramco warned of future oil supply shortages [52]. Bonds - **Domestic Bonds**: The domestic bond market was volatile, and the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [54]. - **Central Bank Bills**: The central bank will issue 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24 [54]. - **US Bonds**: US Treasury yields fell across the board [54]. Foreign Exchange - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the RMB's global payment ranking was sixth in October [55][56]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [56]. - **Yen**: The yen against the dollar reached its weakest level since January, and the Japanese government expressed concern [58]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: A series of economic data such as Japan's CPI, UK's retail sales, and US PMI are to be released [60]. - **Events**: Fed, ECB, and other central bank officials will make speeches, and there are important conferences and exhibitions [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's new LPR remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, and there is still a possibility of a downward adjustment in the future [2] - The phosphate iron lithium industry is promoting anti - involution, with the association providing cost reference and regular disclosure [2] - US employment and unemployment data show a complex situation, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December is low [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures [3] - Rebar production and apparent demand increase, while inventories continue to decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - China's new 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR are reported at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, remaining stable for six consecutive months, and there may be a downward adjustment [2] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will guide the phosphate iron lithium industry to avoid low - price dumping [2] - US September non - farm payrolls increase, but previous data are revised down, and the unemployment rate rises [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusts trading fees and position limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts [3] - Rebar production increases by 3.98% this week, and total inventory decreases by 22.83 tons [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai copper, industrial silicon, asphalt, PP [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials up 3.34%, precious metals up 29.29%, etc. [4] Plate Position - Shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.40%, a monthly decline of 0.60%, and an annual increase of 17.28%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures have a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 0.40%, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index has a daily decline of 0.54%, a monthly decline of 1.63%, and an annual increase of 0.30%, etc. [6] - Other: The US dollar index has a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual decline of 7.62%, etc. [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Prices - Shandong mainstream market price is 1640 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous value; Shanxi is 1510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Jiangsu is 1620 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Heilongjiang is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia is 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei is 1650 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Henan is 1630 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui is 1630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Factory Prices - Factory prices of Hebei Dongguang, Shandong Hualu, and Jiangsu Linggu are 1630 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1660 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan respectively; Anhui Haoyuan is 1620 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Basis - Shandong 05 basis is -126 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; Shandong 01 basis is -137 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; Hebei 05 basis is -106 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; Hebei 01 basis is -117 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] Spreads - 1 - 5 spread is 74 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; 5 - 9 spread is -11 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] Warehouse Receipts - Total warehouse receipt quantity is 7183, unchanged [2] International Quotes - Middle East FOB is 377.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; US Gulf FOB is 382.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; Egypt FOB large - granular is 490 dollars/ton, unchanged; Baltic FOB is 377.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; Brazil CFR is 421.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate dropping, expected production in November decreasing, and some refineries planning to switch to producing residue. Demand is also weakening due to factors such as cold weather and limited project increments. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries is at a low level. Considering these factors, it is expected that the futures price of asphalt will oscillate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The start - up rate of asphalt last week decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production of domestic asphalt in November is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) from the previous month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) from the same period last year. The start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate dropping by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons, at a moderately low level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years. Due to factors such as sanctions not affecting Russian oil production and potential peace frameworks, crude oil prices fell. Some refineries in Shandong plan to switch to producing residue this week, and the start - up rate of asphalt will remain low. With the arrival of cold snaps, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. The basis in Shandong is at a neutral level, and the spot price is stable, so the futures price of asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 0.33% to 3,058 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,976 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,062 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 8,998 to 172,183 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong is maintained at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 28 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residue, and the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to September, the national investment in highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared to January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% in January - September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% in January - September 2025. As of the week of November 14, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate dropping by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point compared to January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion less due to a high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared to the week of November 7, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Factors contributing to this include a decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high social inventory, ongoing real - estate adjustments, upcoming Indian anti - dumping taxes, high futures warehouse receipts, and falling prices of coking coal and coke suppressing market sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 slightly declined and remains at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC alleviated concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious [1]. - From January to October 2025, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. Investment, new construction, and completion areas have significant year - on - year declines, and the growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further dropped. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacities such as Tianjin Bohua are in operation, and some enterprises' maintenance is about to end [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4416 yuan/ton, a high of 4490 yuan/ton, and closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 1.15% decline and a decrease of 25423 hands in positions to 1432396 hands [2]. - On November 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 yuan/ton, strengthening by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC开工率 to decline. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, and Qingdao Gulf are in production [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease. The sales volume was 6901.7 billion yuan, a 9.6% decrease. New construction and completion areas also decreased significantly. As of November 16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although it decreased slightly, it is still high [6].