Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a fierce stand - off, but economic data and market expectations suggest a low probability of a December rate cut. The US dollar index has rebounded significantly, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the current off - season demand and the increase in SHFE copper inventories have weakened market confidence and intensified the cautious attitude of waiting and seeing. In the short term, copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations should be closely monitored in the future [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: US non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The data led to an increase in rate - cut expectations, but there is uncertainty before the next Fed meeting. The market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively high, and the US dollar index continued to rebound. Nvidia's strong earnings report boosted the optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand [2]. - **Supply Aspect**: Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiations for copper smelting are ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have been accumulating. The 770th document has not been implemented, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious, but it is expected to improve after the policy implementation [2]. - **Demand Aspect**: After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decline of 3.3%. High copper prices in October restricted production. SHFE inventories continued to increase and are higher than last year. As of November 21, SHFE copper inventories were 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [2]. Copper Price Trends - **SHFE Copper**: This week, SHFE copper fluctuated downward. The weekly high was 86,900 yuan/ton, the low was 85,520 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.59%, and the range decline was 1.43% [4]. - **LME Copper**: As of November 21, LME copper fell 1.38% during the week, closing at $10,700/ton. Due to the divergence in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, copper prices are mainly under pressure [14]. Spot Market - As of November 24, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 125 yuan/ton. After the decline in copper prices during the week, downstream purchases increased, and the spot premium strengthened [9]. Copper Concentrate Supply - As of November 21, copper concentrate port inventory was 596,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.45%. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. SMM predicts that the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance in 2025 will be - 330,000 metal tons. In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to October, the cumulative import was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [18]. Scrap Copper Supply - In October 2025, scrap copper imports were about 196,607 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, with Japan being the largest source. The 770th document has not been implemented, and the production of recycled copper rods in Jiangxi and Anhui has declined, but it is expected to improve after the policy implementation [22]. Smelter Fees - As of November 21, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) was - 41.82 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.37 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. The tight supply of copper concentrate has led to negative processing fees. During the 2026 long - term contract negotiations, it is expected that smelters will have limited profit margins. The first "zero processing fee" has appeared in the negotiations [26]. Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,400 tons, and it is expected to be 1.0876 million tons in November. Five smelters are expected to be under maintenance in November, affecting 48,000 tons of production, but production may increase due to the resumption of some plants and the increase in copper prices. In October 2025, China imported 438,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to October, the cumulative import was 4.456 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In September 2025, the global refined copper supply shortage was 81,300 tons [30]. Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98% [34]. Copper Products - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62%; the copper tube production was 121,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.29%. In October, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decline of 3.3%; from January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. High copper prices restricted production [39]. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%; wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, 251 hours lower than the same period last year [43]. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the sales area of new commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume of new commercial housing was 690.17 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [50]. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 51.6% of total vehicle sales. From January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.4% [54]. Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - **LME**: As of November 21, LME copper inventories increased by 19,300 tons to 155,000 tons, which put pressure on international copper prices. - **COMEX**: As of November 21, COMEX copper inventories were 402,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.66% and 353% higher than the same period last year. - **Shanghai and Guangdong Bonded Areas**: On November 20, the cumulative copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 119,200 tons, with limited changes. - **SHFE**: As of November 21, SHFE copper inventories were 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [60][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The polyolefin industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic (PE)开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, at a neutral level [14] - PP开工率 rose by 0.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 21, PE下游开工率 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%, still at a relatively low level in recent years [19] - As of the week of November 21, PP下游开工率 rose by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19] Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 150 yuan/ton, at a slightly below - neutral level [24] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed down [28] Market Situation and Outlook - The petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly above - neutral level in recent years [3][28] - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation, including ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical PE with an annual capacity of 700,000 tons, and PP with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons [3] - The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and orders for products like plastic weaving have limited follow - up, with the peak season falling short of expectations [3] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling goods at reduced prices [3] - There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the polyolefin industry yet, and relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3]

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 2 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下 一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA 数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于 历史最高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌克 兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞 拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/11/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.07%报 4062.8 美元/盎 司，本周累计下跌 0.77%；COMEX 白银期货跌 1.27%报 49.66 美元/盎司，本周累 计下跌 2.02%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 1.73%， ...

板块表现 重点关注 苯乙烯、纯苯、焦煤、沪铜、沪金 夜盘表现 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -3.00% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材, 3.28% 贵金属, 29.23% 油脂油料, 10.06% 有色, 22.23% 软商品, 2.84% 煤焦钢矿, 12.73% 能源, 3.05% 化工, 11.21% 谷物, 1.30% 农副产品, 4.06% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 美国就业数据影响市场 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜平开高走，日内下跌。 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日铜平开高走，日内下跌。美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，预期 5.0 万人，前值由 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人。9 月失业率从前值 4.3%上升至 4.4%，预期 4.3%。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万 吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有望上移。 据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行 仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。需求 方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前 置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万吨，同比 下降 13.5%。上期所铜库存连续累库目前同比偏高 98.63% ...

【期现行情】 期货方面： 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的倾向。美国财政部 外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌 克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油 的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附 近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。但消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM 制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，中东地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as unchanged supply - demand patterns, slowing petrochemical inventory reduction, and insufficient downstream procurement willingness [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang's LDPE 1 line increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak - season end, with stable orders but lower - than - expected peak - season performance. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the lack of impact on Russian oil production from new sanctions and the potential for a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently [1]. 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 0.65% with a low of 6768 yuan/ton, a high of 6841 yuan/ton, and closed at 6770 yuan/ton below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3991 lots to 512,746 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6790 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory, and packaging film orders also slightly increased. However, the overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.85 million tons, 0.8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed [4]. - Raw materials: Brent crude oil's 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, while the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720 and $730 per ton respectively [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the near term due to factors such as the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, limited impact of the BIS policy, high levels of futures warehouse receipts, and the decline in prices of coking coal and coke which dampen market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has continued to decline slightly and is at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about Chinese exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping duties have led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Last week, export orders increased month - on - month. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and its improvement requires time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. There is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4449 yuan/ton, the highest was 4509 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.20%. The position volume decreased by 57,942 lots to 1,374,454 lots [2] - **Basis**: On November 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 46 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The maintenance of some devices such as Shandong Xinfa has ended, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [4] - **Demand**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined. As of the week of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 20, PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to factors such as increased supply from restarted devices and new capacity, limited downstream demand, high inventory levels, and falling crude oil prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **行情分析** - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product unchanged at 44.24% and slightly fewer orders than last year [1] - On November 21, some maintenance devices restarted, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to rise to around 83.5%, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 increased to around 27% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as Russia's oil production being unaffected by sanctions and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1] - New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, with limited order follow - up and lack of large - scale centralized procurement, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - Anti - involution policies and the elimination of old devices to address over - capacity are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] **期现行情** - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract decreased by 0.61% to close at 6357 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8880 lots in open interest to 626,835 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined, with the拉丝 product priced at 6180 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: On November 21, some maintenance devices restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 83.5% [4] - **Demand**: As of the week ending November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product was unchanged at 44.24% [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons on Friday, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and inventory reduction slowed down [4] **原料端原油** - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to 63 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at 730 US dollars per ton [6]