| | | | VAR 201C FULUKES | | 2025年04月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆★ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★★☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑将继续大幅下跌,美国继续对中国加征关税。对中国加征50%关税(2025年累积加征104%关税),贸易冲突仍在加剧,导 致市场情绪悲观，棉价继续下跌。现货成交偏好，棉花现货部分挂单依旧被扫成交:2024/25南疆加采3130/308/杂3.0内部分纷 售基盖在CF05+1100起，缝内自提。纯棉纱纺企库存不高，当 ...

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| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月09日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | 文文文 | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | ★☆★ | РХ | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆★ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 玻璃 | ★☆★ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯碱 | ★☆☆ 瓶片 | | ★☆☆ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇盘面受油价下跌影响持续回落。短期到港量维持低位,沿海烯烃炭置稳定运行,周期内港口 ...

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| 11/11/2 | 国资期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月09日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属震荡。美国对等关税政策是近期主线,今日已正式生效，全球经济降速风险高,后续关注各国如 何应对,众多国家依然有谈判惑据,金融资产承压下短期依然可能对历史高位的黄金产生地界,行情处于高 波动状态,观望为主。美元信用危机和经济走弱前景下金银比或维持高位。 ★特朗普:与韩国代总统进行了愉快的通话,其他国家都希望与美国达成协议。美贸易代表:总统不会接受 华尔街主导经济的局面,关税没有"例外和豁免",没有谈判时间表。 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Tariff Storm Plummets: Where Are Energy & Container Shipping Headed?" [2] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: April 9, 2025 [6] 1. 2025 US Tariff Policies and Countermeasures - **US Tariff Policies**: Since 2025, the US has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, including a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods (later exempting those meeting USMCA conditions), a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with a potential cumulative tariff on China reaching 116% [7]. - **Counter - measures**: China, Canada, the EU, etc., have imposed counter - tariffs on US goods. For example, China has increased tariffs on US coal, LNG, and other products [7]. 2. Impact of US Tariffs on GDP - **Impact on US GDP**: Various institutions have estimated the impact of US tariffs on its real GDP. Different tariff policies can lead to a drag on the US real GDP, ranging from - 0.07% to - 3.61% depending on the institution and the consideration of counter - measures [8]. - **Impact on Chinese GDP**: In the benchmark scenario of a 40% average tariff on China, the decline in China's exports to the US may drag down GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points next year. In the extreme scenario of a 60% average tariff, the drag may reach 1.3 percentage points [11]. 3. Chinese Fiscal Policy Responses - **Benchmark Scenario**: With an average tariff rate on China rising to 40%, it is generally expected to expand the fiscal deficit by 1 basis point, increasing the 2025 general public fiscal budget deficit rate to 3.5 - 3.8%, issuing 1 - 2 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and raising the local government special bond issuance quota to 4 - 4.5 trillion yuan [11]. - **Extreme Scenario**: When the average tariff rate on China rises to 60%, it is expected to expand the fiscal deficit by 2 basis points, increasing the 2025 general public fiscal budget deficit rate to 3.8 - 4%, issuing 2 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and raising the local government special bond issuance quota to 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan [11]. 4. Market Transition and Investment Strategies - **Market Transition**: In the first quarter, the market adjusted positions from the US to China and Europe. In the second quarter, it focused on domestic fiscal stimulus, US financial conditions, and tariff uncertainties. There are risks such as US concessions on tariffs to Southeast Asian countries and joint financial pressure from G7 countries [15]. - **Investment Strategies**: Short - term, focus on domestic policy combinations, then the impact of tariffs on the Fed's decision. Hedge assets like treasury bonds are in the trading window, and focus on domestic consumption sectors in stocks and commodities. Be patient with the valuation repair of the Greater China region, especially the correction of Hong Kong stocks. In terms of exchange rates, in the extreme scenario, there may be active depreciation; in the benchmark scenario, it will maintain stability with a limited depreciation space [15]. 5. Energy Market Analysis 5.1 Crude Oil Market - **Supply and Demand**: In the first quarter, oil inventories increased by 2.1%, with crude oil inventories up 5.8% and refined oil inventories down 3.5%. OPEC + production, including that of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, has different relationships with production targets [73][60]. - **Price and Crack Spreads**: As of the week ending March 28, the 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand decreased by 1.2% year - on - year. Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, while naphtha and propane crack spreads weakened, and high and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads strengthened passively [57]. - **Import Sources**: In 2024, China's coal (excluding coking coal) imports mainly came from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia. Crude oil imports came from countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia [33]. 5.2 Asphalt Market - **Tariff Impact**: On March 24, Trump announced a 25% secondary tariff on Venezuela, which took effect on April 2. Chinese refineries increased imports of Venezuelan oil in March to avoid sanctions, but are expected to reduce imports in April [90]. - **Supply Outlook**: In April, China's asphalt planned production is 228.9 million tons, a decrease of 9.7 million tons from the previous month. The supply of non - quota raw materials for local refineries remains a problem, and the discount of diluted asphalt and the contribution of fuel oil to asphalt supply are key factors [94]. 5.3 LPG Market - **Historical Tariff Impact**: During Trump's previous term, China imposed tariffs on US propane, leading to a contraction in international demand and a decline in prices. China achieved a domestic market premium through exchanges with Japan and South Korea [105]. - **Current Market Situation**: The ether - after premium has disappeared, PDH operating rates are under pressure, and the market is in a state of supply and demand game. The market is expected to be in a state of wide - range fluctuation in the short - term, and there is a risk of a rebound in the market after the stabilization of crude oil prices [122][135]. 6. Container Shipping Market Analysis - **Route Distribution**: Different trans - oceanic routes have different ship - type distributions and freight rates. The Asia - Europe, Asia - US West, and Asia - US East routes have different freight rates per nautical mile [143][146]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: The economic situation in the eurozone and production - type economies affects the container shipping market. The second quarter is a traditional peak season for demand in the Asia - Europe container shipping trade [150][153].

综合履报 【原油】 隔夜铜价继续在关税极限施压下走低，伦铜8700美元成为压力。国内铜现货报价周内下调，且升水 收斂,近月合约间back排列稳定。沪铜虽存较强基本面支撑,但市场高度关注美国对等关税的落 她,沪铜有继续下跌的系统性压力。预计伦铜保持宽幅波动。沪铜指数短线跌向7.1万并填补缺口的 概率较大。建议空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。 短期宏观主导商品行情,有色金属承压需求前景。 过去一周铝锭铝棒社库分别 下降2.6万吨和1.3万吨,阵存总量已处于近年同期低位,表观消费超预期。沪铝具备一定抗跌性, 但形成向下破位后上方面临两万整数关口和年线压制,下方考验周一政停位置19000元支撑。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜国际油价进一步走弱,布伦特06含约跌4.26%。上周全球石油库存环比回落,最新美国API原油 库存下降105.7万桶;一季度石油库存总体累增2.1%,其中原油库存累增5.8%、成品油阵存去化 3.5%，原油岸罐库存累增2.8%。OPEC+上调5月增产计划、贸易战引发经济衰避预期及油品需求担忧 的背景下后期平衡表趋于恶化、黑库压力进一步放大。OPEC+增产降价策略 ...

【科创50ETF】 当月合约距离到期还剩 11 天 日期 标的物价格 5HV 10HV 20HV 当月IV 当月近 1年IV 分位数 当月近 2年IV 分位数 次月IV 次月近1年 IV分位数 次月近2 年IV分位 数 2025/4/3 1.068 7.14% 15.03% 15.46% 26.50% 49.30% 58.20% 26.43% 50.20% 66.00% 2025/4/7 0.97 62.21% 45.54% 34.05% 66.76% 95.90% 97.70% 55.73% 94.50% 96.90% 2025/4/8 0.986 67.29% 46.97% 35.16% 44.19% 85.30% 91.70% 43.25% 88.10% 93.50% 5.00% 25.00% 45.00% 65.00% 85.00% 105.00% 125.00% 145.00% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 科创50ETF价格、历史波动率、隐波走势 左轴科创50ETF 20HV 当月IV 数据来源：同花顺iFinD，国投期货 2.00% 22.00% 42.00% 62.00% ...

【甲醇】 甲醇盘面持续低位震荡。海外装置产能利用率持续提升,考虑到船舶因素,短期到选置维持低位,周期内港口 去摔幅度较大,但在宏观氛围偏弱的影响下对行情支撑有限,进口增量预期延后至4月下旬兑现。国内产量由降 转升,进口预期逐步回归,叠加下游需求或季节性转弱。供需面预计转向宽松。 【尿素】 尿素盘面持续大幅回落。印度IPL招标公布,共收到供货近356万吨,西海岸最低报价GFR36美元/吨,东海岸最 低报价CFR398.24美元/吨。国内近期工农业刚需采购为主,生产企业库存已降至往年同期水平。日产虽小幅下 降,但仍旧维持高位,江苏恒盛新装置点火投料成功,预计本周四出产品。尿素供应高位的压力延续,南方水 稻耕种用肥预期4月下旬进入旺季,短期行情预计震荡回调。 【聚烯烃】 凝烯烃主力合约日内冲高回落,弱势整理。凝乙烯现货市场表现疲弱,由于成本支撑成弱,宏观面无进一步指 引,市场心态难有好转,维持积极出货,主流市场价格下跌;聚丙烯方面,现货报盘重心持续下移,国内出口 订单受关税政策影响,难免出现缩减,尽管目前基本面供需弱平衡,但场内心态偏空,商家避险让利出货为 上。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《》》 国技期货 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月08日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆★ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周全球石油库存环比回落,一季度石油库存总体累增2.1%,其中原油库存累增5.8%、成品油库存去化3.5%。原油 岸键库存累增2.8%。OPEO+上调5月增产计划、贸易战引发经济衰退预期及油品需求担忧的背景下后期平衡表趋于恶 化、黑库压力进一步放大。短期原油价格仍以震荡偏弱秀待,关注美国页岩油边际开采成本WT155-60美元/桶（对 应布伦特60-65美元/楠、SC430-470元/楠）的支撑作用。 ...