Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The market shows a complex situation with different trends for various chemical products. Short - term and mid - term trends vary, and investment strategies such as anti - arbitrage, long - position allocation, and short - selling at high prices are recommended according to different product characteristics [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with prices at a low level and a strong market wait - and - see mood [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also rose. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance limited transactions. For polypropylene, trading sentiment improved, but demand from downstream factories was still weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded due to oil price increases. There was a risk of port inventory accumulation in the short - term, and mid - term imports were a major pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose. Although there were rumors of production cuts, high inventory limited the upside [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded with oil prices. The short - term rebound's sustainability depends on oil prices, and mid - term anti - arbitrage is recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but faces inventory accumulation pressure in the mid - term [5] - Short fiber is recommended for long - position allocation, while bottle chip demand weakens and is mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices may fluctuate within a range in the short - term and tend to rise in the medium - to - long - term [6] - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range [7] - Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices may have limited downward movement, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆, indicates a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the market [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★, represents a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆, shows a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is highly influenced by Sino - US trade relations. Without trade improvement, the market will likely continue to fluctuate. There are many uncertainties, so it's advisable to wait and see [3] - In the long - term, it's recommended to allocate vegetable oils at low prices, but be cautious about short - term price adjustments [4] - For the rapeseed sector, pay attention to cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as the short side [6] - For corn, the market will likely continue to be weak at the bottom, with increased volatility [7] - For live pigs, expect a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] - For eggs, the short - term is to wait and see, and a decline may occur in the medium - term [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans rose following the overseas market. The market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Domestic soybeans were auctioned at 3900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. Keep an eye on policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal increased by 2.3% with 170,000 lots traded. The oil - meal ratio dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal inventory is still high. If Sino - US trade relations deteriorate, supply may be tight in Q1 next year. The view is that without trade improvement, Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to oscillate. Wait and see in the current data vacuum period [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil - meal ratio dropped sharply. Palm oil enters the减产 cycle in Q4. If supply drops quickly, palm oil price will be resilient; otherwise, be cautious about price adjustments. Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 10.77% from Oct 1 - 20. Expect long - term bullishness on vegetable oils, but be cautious about short - term price corrections [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose and rapeseed oil fell, underperforming their competitors. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Australian rapeseed is being harvested, and Russian rapeseed has been launched. There is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil. Consider cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures were slightly stronger. The "market - based purchase + policy - based procurement" system is emphasized. Northeast new corn supply is increasing, and downstream demand is just for necessity. Corn will likely continue to be weak at the bottom with increased volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures increased in positions. Spot prices rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is still high, and there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased in positions by 30,000 lots and rose by over 3%. Spot prices rose in most areas. Be cautious in the short - term. In the medium - term, the industry needs to eliminate old chickens, and there is potential pressure from cold - stored eggs [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand, policy expectations, and cost support, with the price rebounding but limited by demand [1] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, due to factors like supply and demand changes and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by downstream demand and cost expectations [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are driven by steel, with overall good demand and attention to external trade frictions [6][7] Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Thread demand recovered this week but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand rose, production was flat, and inventory decreased. Iron - water production remained high, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. From September data, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebounded due to policy expectations and cost increases, but the weak demand limited the rebound space [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures were volatile and strong. Supply was strong globally, domestic arrivals declined from a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Demand - side iron - water production was gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure to cut production would increase in the future. With expectations of policy benefits, the market sentiment improved. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price hikes in the coking industry started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, carbon supply was abundant, and the high - level iron - water production supported the price. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Due to political unrest in Mongolia, the stability of Mongolian coal imports was a concern. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and prices rose. Terminal inventory increased, and total inventory rose slightly. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Weekly production declined slightly, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium production increased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply remained high, and inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy & Shipping Q4 Strategy: Rising and Falling, Alternating in Search of a Bottom [2] - Author: Gaomingyu from Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: October 2025 [3] Core Viewpoints - The differentiation among industrial products remains significant, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still approaching extreme values [4] - In the energy and shipping sectors, various products face different supply - demand situations. For example, in the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is expected to have marginal improvement in demand in the medium term. In the asphalt market, the high - growth rate of shipments is hard to sustain, and the "peak season" in October is weaker than expected. In the power coal market, the supply - demand balance is affected by production, imports, and consumption. In the container shipping (European line) futures market, the supply is abundant while the demand growth may slow down in the future [61][68][93][109] Summary by Industry Energy Sector Crude Oil and Oil Products - **Supply - side**: OPEC+ has production quotas and targets. The production of countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia is also important factors. US shale oil production is affected by factors such as the number of active rigs and new well productivity. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela's oil exports also impact the global supply [11][22] - **Demand - side**: Global oil demand growth rates have been adjusted down by institutions such as IEA, DOE, and OPEC. Different oil products have different demand trends, and the demand in China and other regions also varies [27] - **Inventory**: Crude oil and refined oil inventories in different regions (such as the US, China, and Europe) have different trends, which affect the market supply - demand balance [39][42] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term geopolitical events affect supply, while in the medium term, supply pressure is expected to increase. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overseas market has a loose supply, and domestic production enthusiasm is weak [53][59] - **Demand**: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong short - term demand from shipping and feedstock, but the demand may weaken in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to see marginal improvement in demand in the fourth quarter [57][59] - **Strategy**: Consider shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads or widening the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [61] Asphalt - **Supply - demand**: The high - growth rate of asphalt shipments is difficult to maintain, and the "peak season" in October is weaker than expected. Road asphalt consumption is boosted, but waterproof asphalt consumption declines due to the real - estate market [68][70] Power Coal - **Supply**: Coal production in different regions (such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia) and imports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, and Russia affect the supply [77][83] - **Demand**: Power generation and industrial production are the main demand sources. The demand in the power industry and other industries shows different trends [88][89] - **Inventory**: Power coal inventories at ports and terminals also impact the market balance [93] Shipping Sector Container Shipping (European Line) Futures - **Demand**: The Asian - European container shipping trade volume increased by 10% year - on - year from January to August, with the growth rate at a 10 - year high. The demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter, but the growth momentum may slow down next year [99][104] - **Supply**: New ship deliveries are keeping a fast pace, and the supply is abundant. The shipping alliance restructuring and potential over - capacity after the resumption of normal routes also put pressure on the market [109]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" - Asphalt: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "なな☆" - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" Report's Core View - The oil market is in a state of short - term rebound. In the absence of additional negatives, the downward momentum of oil prices this week has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical fluctuations on the resistance level of Brent at $65 per barrel [2] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil prices mainly follow crude oil fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term, but supply is expected to be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] - The asphalt market maintains a tight balance, and the strengthening of the cost side helps to consolidate the upward trend [4] - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil gives it a boost [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded violently, and the SC11 contract rose 4.4%. Considering the approaching of the low point in April and the decline of net long positions in futures and options, the downward momentum of oil prices is expected to slow down this week. EIA inventories declined last week, and geopolitical risks have increased. The market is in a state of oversold rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow the strengthening of the crude oil cost side due to multiple macro - factors. The supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but supply may be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently, but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] Asphalt - Crude oil leads the rise of oil product futures, and BU continues the upward trend. The weekly start - up rate of asphalt nationwide declined, the production plan of refineries in November decreased significantly. The weekly shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises declined. Social inventory continued to be destocked, and factory inventory was destocked slowly. The market maintains a tight balance [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today, the rebound of crude oil led to the rise of oil product futures, and the LPG main contract rose about 2.6%. This week, the supply increased slightly. Chemical demand has increased, and the demand expectation of the combustion end is strong, but the actual demand is currently flat. Weekly refinery and port inventories declined [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PX, PTA, and benzene ethylene are rated ★☆★, indicating a moderately bullish trend [1]. - PVC, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips are rated ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - Urea, methanol, and glass are rated ☆☆☆, meaning a neutral trend with low operability [1]. - Caustic soda and soda ash are rated ☆☆☆, also indicating a neutral state [1]. Core Views - In the chemical market, different chemical products show various trends. Some are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and downstream demand, with short - term and medium - term outlooks varying [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Propylene prices remained stable at a low level, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2]. - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated upwards. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance to price increases led to slower trading. For polypropylene, the trading sentiment improved, but downstream demand had no obvious improvement [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Boosted by oil prices, the pure benzene futures price continued to rebound, and the spot price in East China also recovered. In the short term, concerns about supply contraction and oil price rebounds led to increased downstream purchases, while high imports remained a medium - term pressure [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures continued to rise. Driven by oil prices, styrene showed a short - term strong trend, but high inventory suppressed its upward space [3]. Polyester - The sharp rebound in oil prices provided impetus for PX and PTA. The textile market improved, but PTA was expected to face inventory accumulation in the medium term. Ethylene glycol might rebound in the short term but had medium - term inventory pressure. Short - fiber was expected to continue a bullish trend, while bottle chips faced weakening demand [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol rose slightly. The port inventory was high, and it might oscillate in the short term and tend to be stronger in the medium - to - long - term. The urea futures price continued to rise slightly, with improved supply - demand margins and cost support [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC was expected to increase, with stable domestic demand and good export in September. It might operate in the bottom - range. The supply of caustic soda fluctuated slightly, with inventory decline in non - aluminum downstream, and it might operate at a low - range [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry had a slight inventory reduction, but supply remained high. It was advisable to short at high levels after a rebound. The glass price continued to fall, with inventory accumulation, and its downward range was expected to be limited [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating [1] - Pulp: No clear rating [1] - Sugar: No clear rating [1] - Apple: No clear rating [1] - Logs: Bullish bias [1][7] - Natural Rubber: Slightly bullish, but poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: Slightly bullish, but poor operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Slightly bearish, but poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as production, demand, inventory, and international relations. Different commodities show different trends, and investment operations should be adjusted according to specific situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise, while spot prices remained stable. Xinjiang's additional - picked cotton prices were strong. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons. The off - season of the peak season continued, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound, and it was advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data was bearish, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The market focused on the next season's production estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was expected to be good, and sugar prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillation [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. The spot trading volume increased, and the market mainly traded the cold - storage warehousing volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and the initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected. It was advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Affected by the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the futures market sentiment improved. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and the domestic tire start - up rate rebounded after the holiday. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the synthetic rubber inventory increased. The strategy was to rebound after an oversell [5] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to rise, and spot prices were stable. As of October 16th, the inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic import volume increased year - on - year. The supply was relatively loose, the demand was average, and it was advisable to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The supply might remain low, the demand in the peak season supported the price, the inventory was low, and the operation idea was bullish [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals first declined and then rebounded, halting the downward trend. Events such as China - US trade, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US government shutdown are at critical stages of the game, with uncertain prospects and volatile risk sentiment. In the short term, precious metals have large intraday fluctuations, the severe over - buying is being corrected, and after the correction, they may enter a stage of high - level consolidation. It is recommended to wait and see for a buying opportunity after stabilization [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Russia - Ukraine Situation - The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on liquefied natural gas imports [1] - US media reported that the US allowed Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia, but Trump called it fake news [1] - Bettsent said there would be a "substantial increase" in sanctions against Russia, and then the US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin in Budapest, stating that the meeting would make no progress [1] US Government Shutdown - On October 22, local time, the US Senate voted 54 to 46 to reject the Republican - proposed temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" deadlock continues. This is the 12th time the Senate has voted down the bill since the government shutdown [2] Tariffs - India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on India to 15% - 16% [2] - The Trump administration is preparing a drug investigation to pave the way for new tariffs [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price rebounded sharply overnight, and the decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down. Precious metals are in a weak adjustment phase, and it is recommended to wait for a stable buying opportunity. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, while aluminum prices are expected to test the previous high resistance. The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situation, and trade negotiations, showing different trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent's December contract rising 4.36%. The decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down in the absence of additional negative factors. The market is in an oversold rebound state, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the $65/barrel resistance level of Brent due to geopolitical fluctuations [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, fuel oil prices rose significantly following the cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical fluctuations, but the supply will be looser in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak, but the cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly this week. The chemical demand is growing, while the combustion demand is weak. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is boosted by the rebound of crude oil [24]. - **Bitumen**: The weekly asphalt production rate declined. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the price has rebounded from a low level due to the stop - falling of crude oil [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver continued their weak adjustment. They are in the process of repairing the overbought situation and may enter a high - level shock stage after the correction. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated with a positive line. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals reflects the resilience of copper prices. The market is waiting for the Sino - US business meeting this week, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. An overseas aluminum plant reduced production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. The short - term aluminum price will continue to test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is extremely low, and the overseas spot is tight, supporting the London zinc price to break through the $3,000 integer mark again. The domestic zinc price has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term rebound height depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand recovery is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down. Technically, the Shanghai nickel price is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated with a negative line. The domestic tin concentrate import volume decreased by nearly 30% month - on - month in September. A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high. The weekly output of silicon - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [20]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading became active. The total market inventory decreased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and rebound [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures continued to adjust. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated in November [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures adjusted downward. The production reduction in November - December is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an opportunity to bet on a rebound [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price is expected to continue to rebound. The short - term oil price stop - falling provides rebound power, but the high import volume is the main pressure in the medium term [27]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price increase may boost the cost and market sentiment of styrene, but the high inventory suppresses the price [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The sharp increase in crude oil prices may boost olefin - chain products. The supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene may increase, and the price may remain at a low level for a long time [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the weak reality pattern continues. Caustic soda oscillates narrowly, and short - selling should be cautious [30]. - **PX and PTA**: The sharp rebound in oil prices will provide rebound power for PX and PTA. The short - term price is expected to rebound, and the mid - term is expected to be in a contango state [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price continued to rebound at night. The short - term price is expected to rebound, but there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated narrowly. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in the bottom - range [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated. The supply is high, the demand is slightly reduced, and it is recommended to short at a high level after a rebound [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The domestic oil - meal ratio is in a callback state. The export demand of US soybeans is uncertain. It is recommended to look for opportunities where oil is stronger than meal in the medium - long term [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend of rapeseed prices is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US, Sino - Canadian, and US - Canadian trade relations [39]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price showed an intraday upward - then - downward trend. The market is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price declined. The domestic cotton demand is general, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to the weather and the growth of sugarcane [44]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is strong. The cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Timber**: The timber price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and a long - buying strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price increased. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Livestock - **Pigs**: The live - pig spot price continued to rebound, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The price is in a rebound cycle, but a short - selling strategy is recommended after the rebound [41]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price of the container freight index (European line) is expected to rise. The short - term upward momentum of the futures price may weaken, but the overall trend is expected to be strong [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [2] - Paper Pulp: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [6] - Sugar: No clear rating indicated, expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Apple: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [4] - Logs: Operation advice is to maintain a bullish mindset [7] - Natural Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - number Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, paper pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber, providing insights into supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and giving corresponding investment operation suggestions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, and traders lowered the spot basis. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, up 4.7 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The peak season showed a weak performance, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. Macroscopically, the market expectations were chaotic. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was considered a rebound, and it was advised to watch temporarily [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand were about to start crushing, and sugar production was expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak, and the market's focus shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall was good after July, and the sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season was relatively good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices were strong. In Shandong, trading volume increased, and high - quality goods had high prices. In the Northwest production area, most high - quality goods had been ordered. The market was mainly trading the cold - storage inventory volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and due to small fruit diameters, production might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory in the new season might be higher than expected. It was advised to watch temporarily [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was mainly watchful. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the overseas butadiene port price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly declined. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. After the National Day, tire enterprises resumed production, and the domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 43.75 tons, while the domestic butadiene and synthetic rubber inventories increased. The strategy was to expect a rebound after an oversold situation [5] Paper Pulp - Today, paper pulp futures rose. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the broad - leaf pulp price was also stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic paper pulp imports increased year - on - year. The domestic port inventory was relatively high, and the supply was relatively loose. The paper pulp demand was average, and the downstream demand lacked peak - season support. Recently, the overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation continued to rise, narrowing the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp. It was advised to watch temporarily [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. In October, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation increased, and the domestic spot price was weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation was still high, and the domestic supply was expected to remain low. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the peak - season demand supported the price. The log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. It was advised to maintain a bullish mindset [7]