Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1494.2 billion yuan, slightly down by 1.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of various futures varieties also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the A-share market had a collective rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22% to 2189.58 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4010.02, up 18.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 10, the weighted index of coke was strong, closing at 1501.6, up 50.0. The weighted index of coking coal remained strong, closing at 908.1 yuan, up 34.7. The spot price of port coke increased, and the production profit of coking enterprises was poor, leading to reduced production and inventory reduction. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and coal mines gradually resumed production, with reduced inventory pressure [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June, the US sugar price rose on Wednesday. Supported by the increase in US sugar price and spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose on Thursday and adjusted at night. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association expects a significant increase in sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [4]. Rubber - Due to heavy rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the supply of raw materials decreased, and the spot price in Southeast Asia continued to rise. The Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Thursday and adjusted slightly at night. The operating rates of tire factories showed slight differences this week [5]. Soybean Meal - On July 10, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded. The US soybean export sales increased, but the high - quality rate and good weather reduced the risk of soybean production reduction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in oil mills was sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal was increasing. There is a large gap in imported soybean orders after September [6]. Live Pigs - On July 10, the main contract of live pigs (LH2509) rose 0.77% to 14375 yuan/ton. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end accelerated, but the terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the medium and long term [7]. Palm Oil - On July 10, palm oil had a slight shock adjustment after encountering resistance in the recent rise. The MPOB data showed that the production, export, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June had different changes, with the overall data being slightly bearish [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper showed a weak trend, with complex supply - demand situations due to the expected increase in global copper mine production and possible decline in US downstream demand. Attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and macro - policy dynamics [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13875 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. Logs - On July 10, the main contract of logs (2509) showed a certain trend, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The port log inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [9][10]. Steel - On July 10, the rb2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3262 yuan/ton. The price increase was due to positive sentiment and the release of speculative demand in the spot market. The overall production and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and there was no significant supply - demand contradiction [11][13]. Alumina - On July 10, the ao2509 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton. Although there is an expected supply surplus, it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term due to news and the risk of short - squeezing [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 10, the al2508 contract closed at 20700 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was close to the industry ceiling, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum rods and ingots showed signs of accumulation, but the low - inventory state may support the price in the short term [13].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 9, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated on July 9. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to 3493.05, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67. The trading volume reached 1505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 3991.40, down 7.05 from the previous day [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Price movement: The weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1461.4, up 33.1 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was strong, closing at 882.8 yuan, up 29.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Influencing factors: For coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but the profit is meager, and the daily output has been falling. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the procurement willingness of traders and steel mills has slightly improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines is starting to rise, the spot auction market has improved, and the terminal inventory has increased, but the overall inventory is decreasing [4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Price movement: Affected by the technical adjustment of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on July 9. The market expects the short - term decline of US sugar to be limited, and the expected decline in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June also affected the price [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Price movement: Due to the prediction of heavy rain in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly higher on July 9. The market is worried about the supply, and the night - session price also rose [5]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - Price movement: The CBOT soybean futures fell on July 9. The domestic soybean meal futures market showed a pattern of loose supply. The M2509 contract closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The inventory of soybean meal in coastal areas increased, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate and adjust [6]. 2.5. Live Pigs - Price movement: The live pig futures price fluctuated on July 9. The LH2509 contract closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the price lacks support [7]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Price movement: The US tariff policy and the slowdown of industrial demand in some economies have put pressure on copper prices. The domestic copper inventory has increased slightly, which has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment [7]. 2.7. Cotton - Price movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13880 yuan/ton on the night of July 9. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 39 lots [7]. 2.8. Logs - Price movement: The 2509 log futures opened at 785, with the lowest at 780.5, the highest at 787, and closed at 7853.5, with a reduction of 389 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The port inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [8]. 2.9. Steel - Price movement: The rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke are stable and slightly strong, but the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, and the steel market may show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. 2.10. Alumina - Price movement: The ao2509 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy and the rectification of the photovoltaic industry have stimulated the bullish sentiment, and the price has broken through the 3100 - yuan mark [9]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - Price movement: The al2508 contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton. The spot market was weak, the inventory in the East China region continued to increase, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure is increasing [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 8, 2025, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, and trading volume increased [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production changes, and international market conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3497.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to 10588.39, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.39% to 2181.08. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1453.9 billion yuan, an increase of 245.3 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3998.45 on July 8, up 33.28 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 8, the coke weighted index closed at 1431.5, up 2.8, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 856.9 yuan, up 7.1 [3][4]. - Coke: Due to rising coking coal prices, some coking plants cut production. Downstream steel mills maintained stable profits but only made necessary purchases. A proposed price increase for coke faced resistance from steel mills [5]. - Coking coal: Some previously shut - down mines resumed production. Mongolian coal imports may increase after the holiday. Short - term supply was tight, but import profits for some coal types improved [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors like short - term price increases and increased Brazilian exports in June, US sugar prices adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Zhengzhou sugar futures also showed a downward trend on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Trump's tariff measures led to a rebound in Shanghai rubber prices on Tuesday, but weak fundamentals limited the rebound space [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good crop weather in the US. In the domestic market, sufficient soybean supply and high oil - mill operating rates led to high soybean meal production and inventory pressure [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 8, the LH2509 contract closed at 14275 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The supply of live pigs increased, while terminal demand was weak, and there was medium - to - long - term supply pressure [8]. Palm Oil - On July 8, palm oil prices broke through a three - month consolidation range, with the domestic contract closing at 8644, up 2.1%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil contract also rose [9]. Shanghai Copper - The outcome of the July 9 tariff negotiation was crucial. High production and weak demand in China, along with uncertainties in the macro - economy, put pressure on copper prices [9]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 63 lots [10]. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 785 on July 8, with a focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range. Log inventory increased slightly, and demand was weak [10]. Steel - On July 8, the rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. Steel production might decrease slightly, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On July 8, the ao2509 contract closed at 3110 yuan/ton. Imported ore prices might rise, supporting production costs. The supply surplus situation continued [11][12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 8, the al2508 contract closed at 20525 yuan/ton. The market was weak, with sufficient supply and general demand [12].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On July 7, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and sorted, closing up 0.02% at 3473.13 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.70% to 10435.51 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21% to 2130.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1208.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 219.9 billion yuan from the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index adjusted and sorted on the same day, closing at 3965.18, a decrease of 17.03 from the previous day [1] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On July 7, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1429.2, a decrease of 13.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 849.6 yuan, a decrease of 15.3 from the previous day [2][3] - For coke, due to the increase in the price of spot coking coal, some coking plants cut production at a loss, and the supply pressure of coke eased. In the short term, most coking plants can maintain a small profit, and the possibility of a significant decline in the coke operating rate is low. The downstream steel mills have stable profits, but due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, the pig iron output declined this week, and steel mills only maintained rigid - demand procurement. For coking coal, the previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the output of coking coal has increased marginally. The customs clearance level of Mongolian coal was low last week, with an average of 600 - 700 vehicles per day. After the Mongolian National Day, the customs clearance is expected to increase. In the short term, the arrival of coking coal at ports is tight. Recently, the price of domestic coal has increased, and the import profit of some coal types has been restored, and subsequent shipments may increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction of the spot quotation, the long - position liquidation suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on July 7. The contract also fluctuated slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. As of the end of June in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Yunnan Province sold 1.7511 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.3182 million tons year - on - year, with a sugar sales rate of 72.40% and an industrial inventory of 0.6676 million tons, an increase of 0.0685 million tons year - on - year. Guangxi sold 5.1406 million tons of sugar in total, an increase of 0.6144 million tons year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3308 million tons [4] Group 4: Rubber - Affected by the concern that tire re - export trade may be restricted, Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower on July 7. At night, it fluctuated in a narrow range. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival and warehousing of overseas goods at Qingdao Port decreased week - on - week last week. Some downstream enterprises began maintenance and reduced production. With the rubber price running strongly, factories had no strong purchasing sentiment. The decline rate of the port's outbound rate was less than that of the inbound rate, resulting in a slight inventory accumulation trend of Qingdao's spot inventory. As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%, and the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [5] Group 5: Palm Oil - On July 7, palm oil maintained a small - range upward oscillation within the range, closing with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 8490, the lowest was 8412, and the closing price was 8466, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.13%, and an increase of 65,000 tons compared with 473,100 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13.73% [5][7] Group 6: Soybean Meal - In the international market, on July 7, CBOT soybean futures fell. The good weather in the United States and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil pressured the prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in its weekly crop growth report that as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations. The forecast shows that warm weather and sporadic rainfall are expected in the central and western regions of the United States in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial to crop growth. In the domestic market, on July 7, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. Recently, domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supplies, and the operating rate remains high. The output of soybean meal continues to be large. After the terminal pick - up volume is limited, the inventory will continue to increase. The loose supply pressures the price of soybean meal. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price may fluctuate and adjust. In the future, focus on the arrival volume of soybeans and the domestic soybean meal inventory [7] Group 7: Live Pigs - On July 7, the live - pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract LH2509 closed at 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered. As the group pig enterprises gradually increase their slaughter volume, the willingness of retail pig farms to sell has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm of live pigs has accelerated. Currently, the terminal market is in the off - season of purchase and sales, and the rigid demand in the downstream market is insufficient, which cannot strongly support the price of live pigs. With the relatively high production capacity of breeding sows, there is still supply pressure on live pigs in the medium and long term. In the short term, focus on the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening [8] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected employment growth in the United States implies that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates immediately, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and put short - term pressure on copper prices. The domestic economy is running smoothly and steadily improving, but it faces uncertainties such as external trade. There is room for policy support, which has certain potential support for Shanghai copper. However, as the reciprocal tariff is approaching, the market may have a logic of reducing positions to avoid risks, and the copper price has adjusted. In the future, focus on the implementation of tariffs and changes in the supply - demand side [8] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of July 7, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on July 8, the minimum basis quotation of the designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous trading day [8] Group 10: Logs - On July 7, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 791, with the lowest at 785, the highest at 794.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 324 lots in open interest. Pay attention to the pressure range of 790 - 800. On the same day, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to Woodlink Information, the inventory of logs at ports increased slightly, the demand was weak, there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading was weak. Pay attention to the spot price and the support of import data for the spot [9] Group 11: Steel - On July 7, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. High - temperature warnings have been issued in many parts of the country, and affected by the typhoon in the southeast coastal areas, the demand for steel may weaken this week. If steel mills have difficulties in destocking, the steel output may also decrease, and the price of raw fuels may be under pressure again [9] Group 12: Alumina - On July 7, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3042 yuan/ton. There are both disturbances in alumina ore and pressure from new production capacity. Recently, the financial meeting proposed the news of the withdrawal of backward production capacity. In the short term, policy news guides the market to oscillate strongly. Overall, although there are short - term positive factors in the news for alumina, the oversupply pattern is still difficult to change, and the upward pressure on prices continues [9] Group 13: Shanghai Aluminum - On July 7, the al2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,410 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit and changes little. In terms of demand, the orders of terminal factories have decreased significantly in the off - season, and the high aluminum price restrains downstream procurement. The inventory of aluminum rods started to accumulate about two weeks earlier than that of aluminum ingots to confirm the inventory inflection point, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has also started to accumulate slightly recently. Whether it is an inflection point remains to be observed. The low - inventory state of aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, which plays a certain supporting role in the price [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 3, A - share market had a positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year, while trading volume decreased compared to the previous day [1]. - The weighted indices of coke and coking coal showed strength on July 3, with their prices rising [2][3]. - The supply - demand structures of coke and coking coal futures have improved, but there are still factors such as weak willingness of downstream steel mills to over - replenish and slow recovery of domestic mine production [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed different trends influenced by US sugar prices, spot prices, and monsoon rainfall in India [4]. - Shanghai rubber futures declined due to the drop in tire factory operating rates and weak tire replacement demand data [5]. - Palm oil prices reached a new high in weeks on July 3, with expected changes in Malaysia's inventory, production, and export volume in June [6]. - The international soybean market has limited upside space, and domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, with the focus on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. - The supply of live hogs is currently lower than expected, but there are risks of lagging production capacity and post - poned supply pressure in the far - month contracts [8]. - Shanghai copper prices lack further upward momentum, and the market needs to focus on macro - economic data and supply - demand situations [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures may be affected by the US - Vietnam trade framework agreement [9]. - Iron ore futures showed a volatile upward trend on July 3, with overseas shipments and domestic arrivals decreasing, and the market sentiment boosted by relevant news [9]. - Asphalt futures showed a volatile upward trend, but high - temperature and rainy seasons have hindered demand, so prices are expected to be volatile [9][10]. - Log futures need to focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range and 07 spot delivery information, and the spot market has weak demand [10]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - side policies and market sentiment [10]. - Alumina futures may be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the long term, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mine - end news [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10534.58, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90% to 2164.09. The trading volume of the two markets was 1309.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968.07 on July 3, up 24.38 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 3, the weighted index of coke closed at 1451.9, up 30.6 from the previous day [2]. - On July 3, the weighted index of coking coal closed at 871.2 yuan, up 34.7 from the previous day [3]. - After the fourth - round price adjustment of coke, the supply - demand structure has improved, but downstream steel mills are not very willing to over - replenish [4]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slowly, and the total inventory is expected to continue to decline, with the supply - demand pattern improving [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected sufficient supply in Thailand and India, US sugar prices fluctuated downward on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures did not follow the decline on Thursday and showed a slight increase [4]. - US sugar prices rebounded at night, boosting Zhengzhou sugar futures to rise [4]. - India's monsoon rainfall in July may be "above normal", which is beneficial to agricultural production [4]. Shanghai Rubber - Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week and weak tire replacement demand data in June, Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday [5]. - The operating rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both on a weekly and annual basis [5]. Palm Oil - On July 3, palm oil prices jumped and then fluctuated upward, reaching a new high in weeks, with a 0.45% increase from the previous day's close [6]. - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June will decrease by 0.24% compared to May, production will decrease by 4.04%, and exports will increase by 4.16% [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 3, the international CBOT November soybean futures closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 0.05%. The market's upside space is limited [7]. - Domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, and the focus is on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. Live Hogs - On July 3, live hog futures rose slightly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14370 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [8]. - The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has decreased in the short term, but there are risks of increasing supply in the future and weak terminal demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - US non - farm payrolls in June were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate met expectations, which boosted the US dollar [8]. - LME copper inventory and domestic social inventory have increased slightly, and copper prices lack upward momentum [8]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13780 yuan per ton on Thursday night [9]. - The base price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased, and inventory decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. - The US - Vietnam trade framework agreement may boost textile exports in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - On July 3, the main contract of iron ore futures rose 2.45% to 733 yuan [9]. - Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals of iron ore have decreased, and steel mills' profits are good, with iron - making output increasing slightly [9]. Asphalt - On July 3, the main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% to 3588 yuan [9]. - Asphalt production has increased, but shipments have decreased, and high - temperature and rainy seasons have affected demand [9][10]. Logs - On July 3, log futures opened at 793, with a closing price of 792.5 and an increase of 625 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the 790 - 800 pressure range [10]. - The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and port inventory increased slightly, with weak demand [10]. Steel - On July 3, the prices of rb2510 and hc2510 were 3076 yuan/ton and 3208 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - The steel market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and short - term steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [10]. Alumina - On July 3, the price of ao2509 was 3026 yuan/ton [11]. - In the short term, alumina futures are strong due to market sentiment, but in the long term, prices may face downward pressure [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 3, the price of al2508 was 20680 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】周三（7 月 2 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.09%，收报 3454.79 点；深证 成指跌 0.61%，收报 10412.63 点；创业板指跌 1.13%，收报 2123.72 点。沪深两市成交额达到 13770 亿，较昨日 缩量 891 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 2 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3943.68，环比上涨 0.92。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 2 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1446.8，环比上涨 44.6。 7 月 2 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 855.2 元，环比上涨 29.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1170 元/吨，较上期价格涨 10 元/吨。供 应，唐山地区空气质量略差，部分焦化企业有降低负荷，同时原料焦煤价格企稳，焦企成本压力加大，下游钢厂 及贸易商采购积极性一般。需求，终端钢材需求弱势运行，高炉整体开工仍在高位，焦炭刚需有一定支撑。 焦煤：吕梁地区主焦煤（A11、S0.6、G88 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 1, 2025, A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index down 0.24%. The trading volume reached 1.466 trillion yuan, slightly down by 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., were affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and international trade situations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3457.75, up 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29, up 0.11%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92, down 0.24%. The trading volume was 1.466 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3942.76, up 6.68 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 1, the coke weighted index closed at 1393.2, down 34.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 823.9 yuan, down 27.8 [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises with long - term contracts may decrease, while those with market - based procurement may face higher costs. The probability of price increases after four rounds of price cuts is low [5]. - For coking coal, supply has tightened recently, and the inventory structure has improved. However, there is a strong expectation of coal mine resumption, and the terminal demand is under pressure [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected good harvest in Thailand and India, and the 22.1% decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of June, the US sugar price fell on Monday, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract declined on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Due to excessive rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the spot price in Southeast Asia has been firm. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Tuesday and fluctuated slightly at night. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase [6][7]. Palm Oil - On July 1, palm oil was in a volatile state, closing at 8336, up 0.07%. As of June 27, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 1, CBOT soybeans fluctuated. The good condition of US soybeans was offset by the rise in soybean oil prices. Domestically, the soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton on July 1. With sufficient soybean imports and high oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory will gradually increase, and it will run weakly [8]. Live Pigs - On July 1, the live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 13865 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures will run weakly [9]. Copper - Macroscopically, copper prices are supported by tight mines and low inventory, but the slowdown of Fed rate cuts and US tariff policies limit the upside. Fundamentally, overseas premiums drive LME copper inventory reduction, and domestic social inventory is lower than last year, so copper prices will continue to be strong [9]. Iron Ore - On July 1, the iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.32% to close at 708.5 yuan. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals have decreased, while steel mills' blast furnace profits are good, and iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On July 1, the asphalt 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 3562 yuan. The processing profit has improved slightly, but demand is still weak, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. Logs - On July 1, the log 2509 contract opened at 784, with a low of 778, a high of 789, and closed at 787, with an increase of 48 lots. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and demand is weak [11]. Cotton - On the night of July 1, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13775 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 62 lots [11]. Steel - On July 1, rb2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The black - series rebound has paused, and although there are rumors of production cuts, terminal demand is still weak [11]. Alumina - Under the situation of supply surplus in the third quarter, alumina prices will be mainly determined by cost. The price is under pressure due to the expected large - scale new production capacity in the future [12]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry limit. Although terminal demand is in the off - season, the processing link has maintained a certain level of demand. Low inventory is currently supporting aluminum prices, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on June 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rising. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by various factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The prices of both showed a downward trend on June 30 [2][3]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar was influenced by factors such as the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the adjustment of domestic spot prices, showing a volatile trend [4]. - The price of rubber was affected by technical factors and showed a volatile adjustment. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased [5]. - The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as US inventory data and domestic supply and demand. The domestic soybean meal market was in a weak and volatile state [7]. - The price of live hogs was affected by factors such as weak consumer demand and increasing supply, and the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. - The price of palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the export volume of Malaysia in June increased year - on - year [8]. - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market [8]. - The price of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, with an increase in supply and demand [9]. - The price of asphalt showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, but the demand was still weak [9]. - The price of cotton showed a certain change, and the inventory decreased [9]. - The price of logs was in a volatile state, and the demand was weak [10]. - The price of steel was under pressure due to the increase in supply and weak demand, and it continued to fluctuate [12]. - The price of alumina was affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. - The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, and it may be under mild pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 10465.12 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35% to 2153.01 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1486.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3936.08, a rise of 14.32 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On June 30, the weighted index of coke closed at 1408.45, a decrease of 6.2. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 832.7 yuan, a decrease of 9.4. The supply of carbon elements was still abundant, and the downstream iron - making in the off - season did not decline. For coking coal, the policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory continued to decline [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the increase in domestic spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract showed a volatile trend. It closed slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [4]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase, the Shanghai rubber showed a volatile adjustment on June 30. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased by 1.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased by 0.6%. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14.3% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean inventory as of June 1 was higher than expected, which put pressure on the near - term contracts. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal was large, and the demand was limited, so the price was in a weak and volatile state [7]. Live Hogs - On June 30, the live - hog futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The consumer demand was weak, and the supply of commodity pigs was expected to increase, so the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. Palm Oil - On June 30, the palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the K - line closed with a lower shadow. The export volume of Malaysia from June 1 - 30 increased by 4.52% compared to the previous month [8]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market. If the tariff negotiation results were good, the copper price was expected to rise; otherwise, it may fall [8]. Iron Ore - On June 30, the iron - ore 2509 contract closed up 0.21% at 715.5 yuan. The supply and demand both increased, and the short - term trend was volatile [9]. Asphalt - On June 30, the asphalt 2509 contract closed up 0.14% at 3564 yuan. The processing profit improved slightly, but the demand was still weak, and the short - term price was volatile [9]. Cotton - The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton on June 30. The cotton inventory decreased by 29 contracts [9]. Logs - The log 2509 contract showed a volatile trend on June 30. The demand was weak, and the inventory in ports increased slightly [10]. Steel - On June 30, the rb2510 contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton. The supply of steel increased, the demand was weak, and the price continued to fluctuate [12]. Alumina - On June 30, the ao2509 contract closed at 2985 yuan/ton. The supply was loose, the demand was weak, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On June 30, the al2508 contract closed at 20580 yuan/ton. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, the price may be under mild pressure [13].

Macroeconomic Situation - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guidance on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", with 19 measures such as setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care to support three major consumption areas [1] - The Central Financial Commission issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Accelerated Construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center", and the financial regulatory authorities and the Shanghai government issued a supporting action plan [1] - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan on the day [1] - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, revised down the 2025 GDP forecast, and revised up inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2] - UK's May car exports to the US dropped 55.4% year - on - year, and car production dropped 32.8% year - on - year, hitting a 76 - year low [2] - Trump decided to terminate trade negotiations with Canada and may impose new tariffs due to Canada's digital service tax, affecting the Canadian dollar and stock and bond markets [2] REITs Market - The first shopping mall public REITs of the year, CICC China Greentown Commercial REITs, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a fundraising scale of 1.58 billion yuan and a offline subscription multiple of 249 times [2] Stock Index Futures - On June 27, A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. The trading volume was 1.5411 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.1 billion yuan from the previous day [3] - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on June 27, closing at 3921.76, a decrease of 24.26 [4] Coke and Coking Coal Futures - On June 27, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1425.5, a rise of 35.5 [5] - On June 27, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 855.9 yuan, a rise of 39.8 [6] - The port coke spot price was stable, with supply and demand showing certain trends. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and the market was mixed [8] Sugar Futures - Brazilian sugar production in June is expected to decline significantly. The Zhengzhou sugar futures 2509 contract rose slightly at night [8] Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures showed narrow - range fluctuations at night on June 27. Inventory and warehouse receipt data had certain changes [9] Soybean Meal Futures - The international soybean market is affected by weather and planting area expectations. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure in the short term [9] Live Pig Futures - On June 27, live pig futures fluctuated. The market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, and the upside space is limited [10] Copper Futures - The Shanghai copper market's price rose under multiple factors, but there are still uncertainties [12] Cotton Futures - The Zhengzhou cotton futures' main contract closed at 13845 yuan/ton on Friday night. The cotton inventory decreased [12] Iron Ore Futures - On June 27, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.99%, closing at 716.5 yuan. The market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand [12] Asphalt Futures - On June 27, the asphalt 2509 main contract fell 0.03%, closing at 3561 yuan. The market is in a weak fundamental situation [13] Log Futures - The log 2509 contract's price and trading volume had specific performance on June 27. The spot price was stable, and the import volume decreased [13] Steel Market - The "Two New" policies are effective, and the state supports equipment renovation. The steel market demand is weak in the off - season [14] Alumina Market - The supply of domestic alumina is relatively loose, and the demand is relatively stable [14] Aluminum Futures - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season in the short term but is expected to improve in the long term [15] Lithium Carbonate Market - The price of lithium carbonate rose, but the market still has an oversupply situation [15]