客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（5 月 19 日） A 股三大指数震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指平盘报收，收报 3367.58 点；深 证成指跌 0.08%，收报 10171.09 点；创业板指跌 0.33%，收报 2032.76 点。沪深两市成交额 10865 亿，较上一个 交易日微幅缩量 31 亿。 【郑糖】因预计巴西中南部甘蔗收割进度将回升美糖上周五震荡下跌。因短线跌幅较大与现货报价平稳等因 素支持郑糖 2509 月合约周一震荡整理。夜盘，郑糖 2509 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。咨询公司 Datagro 总裁兼首席分析师 Plinio Nastari 表示，尽管 2025/26 榨季初期收获缓慢，但甘蔗生长条件有利，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖供应过剩 153 万吨；预计印度和泰国的产量将增加，也将有助于提高全球食糖供应。Datagro 预计 巴西中南部地区 2025/26 榨季食糖产量为 4204 万吨，高于上一榨季的 4017 万吨；印度的食糖产量将从 2600 万 吨增加到 3160 万吨；泰国的食糖产量将从 1 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3367.46, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.07% to 10179.60, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.19% to 2039.45. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.0895 trillion yuan, a decrease of 62.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust on May 16, closing at 3889.08, down 18.11 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 16, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1447.9 yuan, down 27.4 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index also remained weak, closing at 853.8 yuan, down 33.3 from the previous day [1]. - For coke, steel mills proposed the first - round price cut after the holiday. Relevant national ministries are promoting crude steel output control, and the MIIT is revising the implementation method for steel industry capacity replacement. In the short - term, coke supply elasticity is better than coking coal, and the increase in hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton this period [1]. - For coking coal, Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply is loose, mine production is stable, and the refined coal inventory continued to increase this period [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the expected recovery of sugar cane harvesting progress in central - southern Brazil, ICE sugar futures fell on Friday. Affected by the decline in ICE sugar, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which declined slightly. The ISO raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons from the previous 4.88 million tons, due to lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan [2]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower on the night of May 16. As of May 16, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 206,043 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 74,793 tons, a decrease of 4838 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons [2]. Soybean Meal - The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached an important consensus, which boosted the price of US soybeans. However, the good start of US soybeans in 2025 and the good planting and growing conditions exerted pressure on soybean futures prices. Brazil's soybean harvest is basically completed, with an expected output of 168 million tons, resulting in a generally loose market supply [3]. - In the domestic market, on May 16, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The M2509 contract closed at 2899 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. Since May, the arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, the oil refinery operating rate has continuously increased, and the soybean meal inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, but the increase is slow and still at a low level. With the upcoming peak arrival of imported soybeans, the market expects that the demand of terminal feed and breeding enterprises may be less than the supply of soybean meal, so the soybean meal market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On May 16, live pig futures prices were weak. The LH2509 contract closed at 13,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. In May, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. Affected by the narrowing price difference between fat and lean pigs, farmers are more willing to slaughter medium - and large - sized pigs, but have a general willingness to slaughter standard pigs and still have a mentality of holding prices. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak, the consumer diet structure has been adjusted, and there are many alternative consumptions, resulting in poor sales of fresh pork. The market is generally in a situation of loose supply, and live pig futures prices may be weakly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [4]. Iron Ore - On May 16, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 728 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both decreased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply level tightened. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate [4]. Asphalt - On May 16, the main 2506 contract of asphalt futures fluctuated and closed up 0.75% at 3510 yuan. Recently, due to the improvement of refinery production profits, the production load has been increased to varying degrees, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has continued to increase month - on - month, the inventory level has rebounded, and the shipment volume has increased month - on - month. However, affected by rainy weather, the demand is still hindered. In the short - term, asphalt prices may fluctuate [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,415 yuan/ton. As of May 19, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major cotton - producing countries and the impact of macro - policies on supply and demand expectations [5]. Shanghai Copper - Currently, Shanghai copper is in a high - level volatile state. On the supply side, the global copper concentrate supply is loose, but overseas smelter maintenance and low domestic inventory cause supply disruptions. On the demand side, the demand in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors is resilient, while weak real estate investment drags down the overall demand. At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate policy remains unchanged, the US dollar fluctuates, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks and changes in tariff policies affect market sentiment. Technically, the main contract of Shanghai copper has support around 77,000 yuan and resistance above 78,500 yuan. Overall, with multiple factors intertwined, without major unexpected events, Shanghai copper prices may fluctuate within the current range. Attention should be paid to the dynamic changes of macro - policies, supply and demand, and inventory [6]. Logs - On May 16, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 788, with a minimum of 779.5, a maximum of 794, and closed at 783, with an increase of 1585 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 and the resistance at 790. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. The port log inventory has dropped to a two - month low, and the outbound volume has increased slightly. The overall demand is still weak, and there is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to import data, downstream purchasing, and traders' willingness to hold prices [7]. Steel - After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, there has been a rush to ship on the Sino - US route, reversing the previous pessimistic expectation of reduced demand due to potential tariff increases. Recently, the rush to ship has brought a wave of demand for the black - colored commodities, but the tariffs are only reduced, not completely eliminated, which essentially overdrafts future demand, and there is still some pressure on the export side in the future. In addition, the off - season is approaching, and domestic demand tends to weaken seasonally. Currently, it is difficult for the demand side to improve further. The overall supply - demand pattern of the black - colored commodities remains oversupplied. In the short - term, supported by strong current conditions, steel prices may fluctuate and consolidate, but in the medium - term, the weak trend remains unchanged [7][9]. Alumina - On the raw material side, Guinea has been actively shipping before the rainy season. After the arrival of this batch of goods, the domestic port inventory will increase, and the raw material supply will be supplemented, leading to a decline in the price of bauxite. On the supply side of alumina, due to the previously low spot price, some domestic smelters have carried out maintenance and production reduction operations to control the supply, and traders also have a sentiment of holding prices and惜售. The oversupply situation of alumina has improved. On the demand side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the upper limit, and the demand for alumina is relatively stable. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a state of slightly converging supply and stable demand, but due to the decline in raw material prices, the cost support has weakened [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum, the new domestic production capacity increment is sporadic, and the operating production capacity is approaching the industry "ceiling", so the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively stable. On the demand side, in the domestic market, the downstream aluminum processing industry is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the downstream operating rate has declined; in the overseas market, due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes, there is some demand boost for domestic exports, and the overall demand maintains a slight increase. With relatively stable supply, the industrial inventory is continuously decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand [9].

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（5 月 15 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.68%，收报 3380.82 点；深 证成指跌 1.62%，收报 10186.45 点；创业板指跌 1.91%，收报 2043.25 点。沪深两市成交额 11524 亿，较昨日缩 量 1643 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 15 日回调整理，收盘 3907.20，环比下跌 36.01。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 15 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1473.2 元，环比上涨 5.8。 5 月 15 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 883.5 元，环比上涨 3.1。 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作，工业和信息 化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》，目前已形成初稿。基本面，短期供应弹性好于焦煤，铁水产 量上升空间有限。利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 1 元/吨，钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。 焦煤：蒙 5#原煤报 820，价 ...

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（5 月 14 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指站上 3400 点整数关口。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.86%，收报 3403.95 点；深证成指涨 0.64%，收报 10354.22 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 2083.14 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 13167 亿，较昨日小幅放量 252 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 14 日强势，收盘 3943.21，环比上涨 46.95。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 14 日焦炭加权指数弱势反弹，收盘价 1483.8 元，环比上涨 22.8。 客服产品系列•日评 5 月 14 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 894.6 元，环比上涨 18.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭提降一轮。13 日邢台地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日天津地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日石家庄地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭 ...

Variety Insights Stock Index Futures - On May 13th, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3374.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.13% to 10288.08 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.12% to 2062.26 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.2916 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 16.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3896.26, up 5.65 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 13th, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1450.0 yuan, down 9.5. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 871.0 yuan, down 7.5. After the first round of price increase for coke, the price remained stable. The relevant national ministries are actively deploying and promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is revising the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry. The short - term supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal, and the increase in hot metal production is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 1 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the mine production is stable, with a significant increase in clean coal inventory this period [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the technical adjustment of the US sugar and the bearish monthly report of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on May 13th and rose at night due to short - covering. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year. The sugar production forecast for the 2024/25 season has been further raised to 11.15 million tons, and it is predicted that the sugar production in 2025/26 will continue to increase slightly to 11.2 million tons. India has set a sugarcane production target of 467 million tons for 2025 - 26, higher than last year's 436.08 million tons [2]. Rubber - Affected by the technical adjustment due to the recent sharp increase, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated and closed slightly higher on May 13th and continued to rise slightly at night. As of May 11th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 618,700 tons, an increase of 4500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. The automobile market performed well in April, and the production and sales in the first four months of this year exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 13th, the CBOT soybean futures prices closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report lowered the US soybean production forecast, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations was also positive. The USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 to be 295 million bushels, lower than the analysts' pre - report estimate of 362 million bushels. The sown area is expected to be 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre to be 52.5 bushels, and the production to be 4.34 billion bushels. In the domestic market, on May 13th, the soybean meal futures prices fluctuated weakly. The M2509 contract closed at 2886 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. After May, the arrival of imported soybeans increased rapidly, the oil mill operating rate continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded slowly, remaining at a low level. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly in the context of loose supply [4][5]. Live Hogs - On May 13th, the live hog futures fluctuated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,885 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The overall consumer demand is weak, with more alternative consumption, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The breeding side is normalizing the slaughter, and the average slaughter weight is high. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply of live hogs will increase month - by - month in the second quarter. In the long - term, the live hog futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. Palm Oil - On May 13th, palm oil rose first and then fell, continuing the weak and volatile trend. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line, with the highest price of 8082, the lowest price of 7938, and the closing price of 7954, down 0.87% from the previous day. From May 1 - 10, 2025, the palm oil yield in Malaysia increased by 20.2%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production increased by 22.31%. In April, Malaysia's palm oil imports decreased by 52.17% month - on - month, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month [6]. Shanghai Copper - On May 13th, the main Shanghai copper contract CU2506 opened at 78,080 yuan/ton, reached a high of 78,190 yuan/ton, a low of 77,620 yuan/ton, and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 39,435 lots, and the open interest was 180,978 lots. The price first rose, then fell, and then stabilized. The fundamental supply - demand relationship has weakened, with increased supply and decreased demand, but the price is also supported to some extent [7]. Iron Ore - On May 13th, the iron ore 2509 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.06% and a closing price of 714.5 yuan. The overseas shipment and arrival of iron ore decreased this period, the supply tightened, and the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore will show a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On May 13th, the asphalt 2506 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 0.69% and a closing price of 3485 yuan. With the recovery of refinery processing profit, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the social inventory accumulated slightly, and the demand release was still average. In the short - term, asphalt will show a volatile trend [7]. Logs - On May 13th, the 2507 log contract opened at 804, with the lowest price of 784, the highest price of 805, and closed at 788, with a reduction of 7285 lots. The support level is at 780, and the resistance level is at 803. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased to a two - month low, with a slight increase in outbound volume. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [8]. Cotton - On the night of May 13th, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,335 yuan/ton. The lowest basis price of cotton in the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange on May 13th was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 41 lots from the previous day. According to the USDA's May global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the global cotton production in 2025/26 will decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, while consumption will increase year - on - year and reach the highest level in the past five years [9]. Steel - On May 13th, rb2510 closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3215 yuan/ton. The US will reduce the tariff on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30% before May 14th, and China will reduce the tariff on US products from 125% to 10%. The consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, boosting market sentiment. The fundamental supply - demand relationship of rebar has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has strengthened. In the short - term, the rebar futures may show a volatile trend [9]. Alumina - On May 13th, ao2509 closed at 2840 yuan/ton. The spot trading price of alumina continued to rise, and the indexes in various regions increased by about 10 yuan. Recently, the capacity for maintenance and production reduction of alumina has been increasing, and the production has decreased periodically, with the industry inventory turning to decline. However, once the profit is restored, the capacity will resume production on a large scale, and new capacities in Shandong and Hebei will gradually produce finished products. The cost of Guinean bauxite has dropped from 110 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 75 US dollars, and the average cost of alumina has dropped to around 2900 yuan [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 13th, al2506 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton. The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, improving the macro - sentiment. Some short - sellers left the market, pushing up the aluminum price with reduced positions. However, the peak season is over, and the weakening demand expectation restricts the increase in aluminum price. In the short - term, pay attention to the 20,000 - yuan/ton level, and in the medium - term, pay attention to whether the tariff negotiation result will lead to enterprises' rush - to - export and improve the aluminum demand situation [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,762 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,400 - 65,800 yuan/ton, with an average of 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,450 - 63,450 yuan/ton, with an average of 62,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The spot trading price of lithium carbonate has temporarily stabilized. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. The upstream lithium salt factories have a strong willingness to support the price under cost - loss pressure. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. There may be a rush - to - export expectation for Chinese energy - storage cells within the 90 - day tariff - exemption period, which may drive up the demand for lithium carbonate. However, considering the high inventory level and the continuous decline in ore prices, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to show a low - level volatile trend with a greater possibility of decline [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 12, the A - share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.63%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Different futures varieties presented various trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index was strong, while the coke and coking coal futures showed weak rebounds and oscillations respectively. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc. were affected by multiple factors such as international market conditions, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On May 12, the A - share market was strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10301.16 points, up 1.72%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2064.71 points, up 2.63%. The trading volume was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3890.61, up 44.45 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On May 12, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1474.0 yuan, up 10.9; the coking coal weighted index had a weak oscillation, closing at 889.6 yuan, up 5.4. For coke, some steel mills lowered the purchase base price, and the coke output decreased slightly this week. However, steel mills had a rigid demand for coke. For coking coal, domestic mines increased production steadily, the coking enterprise's replenishment demand slowed down, and the port coking coal was expected to continue de - stocking [2][3][4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar continued to rebound from the low last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated upwards on May 12 due to factors such as the rise of US sugar, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, and the increase in spot quotes. It oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of mid - April, Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. Brazil exported 1.5558 million tons of sugar and molasses in April, a year - on - year decrease of 17.65% [4]. **Rubber** - Affected by the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, the Shanghai rubber oscillated upwards on May 12 and oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. **Palm Oil** - On May 12, palm oil rebounded slightly from the low. The main contract P2509 closed at 8024 yuan, up 1.75%. As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 337,300 tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week and a 15.62% decrease from the same period last year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month [5][7]. **Soybean Meal** - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed up, hitting a three - month high. The US Department of Agriculture estimated that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' expectations. The US soybean planting rate as of May 11 was 48%, higher than market expectations. In the domestic market, on May 12, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2509 contract closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The inventory of soybean meal stopped falling and rebounded but was still low. In the future, the market may oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [7]. **Live Pigs** - On May 12, live pig futures oscillated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The current consumer demand for fresh pork is weak, and the market is in a pattern of sufficient supply. The futures may oscillate weakly [8]. **Shanghai Copper** - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, with an increase in positions. The copper concentrate supply is still tight, but the domestic port inventory is sufficient, and the supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. The downstream consumption support may weaken, and the inventory is still decreasing but at a slower rate. The Sino - US economic and trade talks and the domestic monetary policy bring positive signals [8]. **Iron Ore** - On May 12, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and rose by 3.16%, closing at 718.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly，but were still at a high level. The iron ore market may oscillate in the short term [9]. **Asphalt** - On May 12, the 2506 main contract of asphalt oscillated and rose by 1.55%, closing at 3481 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt increased, and social inventory accumulated slightly. The demand release was still average, and the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. **Cotton** - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,310 yuan/ton at the night session on Monday. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 124 lots compared with the previous day [9]. **Logs** - On May 12, the 2507 log contract opened at 790.5, with the lowest at 787, the highest at 810, and closed at 804, with a reduction of 4061 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port inventory decreased, and the overall demand was weak. Attention should be paid to import data and downstream purchasing and traders' price - holding intentions [9][11]. **Steel** - On May 12, rb2510 closed at 3082 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3220 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade talks brought positive news, but the inventory reduction of sample steel slowed down. The export of steel in May and June is expected to continue to increase, especially the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry [11]. **Alumina** - On May 12, ao2509 closed at 2843 yuan/ton. The production of alumina decreased temporarily, and the inventory decreased. However, once the profit is restored, production capacity will resume on a large scale. The cost has decreased, and the short - term rebound of the futures price will be limited [12]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On May 12, al2506 closed at 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level. The demand support has slightly weakened, and the overall consumption is expected to decline in the future, but there is still some resilience at present [12].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（5 月 9 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.30%，收报 3342.00 点；深证 成指跌 0.69%，收报 10126.83 点；创业板指跌 0.87%，收报 2011.77 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11920 亿，较昨日 缩量 1014 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 9 日强势整理，收盘 3846.16，环比下跌 6.74。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 9 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1449.7 元，环比下跌 30.8。 5 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 878.1 元，环比下跌 16.4。 【豆粕】国际市场，美国农业部周度出口销售数据疲软，对华销售量几乎为零。美国农业部定于 5 月 12 日 公布月度供需报告，届时将对 2025/2026 年度全球及主要国家的供需情况作出首份预估，报告前市场预计新季美 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦化第二轮提涨被拒，看涨情绪有所回落，日产 ...

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 客服产品系列•日评 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（5 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.28%，收报 3352.00 点；深证成指涨 0.93%， 收报 10197.66 点；创业板指涨 1.65%，收报 2029.45 点。沪深两市成交额达到 12934 亿，较昨日缩量 1749 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 8 日震荡趋强，收盘 3852.90，环比上涨 21.27。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 8 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1479.8 元，环比下跌 33.9。 5 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 894.5 元，环比下跌 19.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价不变，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1320 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应，当 前多数焦企盈利水平多处于盈亏平衡附近，整体开工负荷维持高稳，下游钢厂高炉铁水产量较高，对焦炭需求维 持偏好，部分厂内库存中性偏低，压力较大的企业降价销售。需求端，钢厂盈利能力仍旧较好，高炉开工率维持 高位，247 家钢厂日均铁水产量回升，对焦炭需求较 ...

客服产品系列•日评 【胶】沪胶周三冲高回落。受泰国宣布推迟开割 1 个月的消息影响期价震荡走高，后因泰胶农团体希望政府 方面与中方就泰橡胶出口零关税展开谈判的消息打击期价震荡回落。因空头打压沪胶夜盘震荡小幅走低。泰国橡 胶管理局突然宣布将 2025 年度橡胶开割季向后推迟 1 个月，预计泰国延迟开割季的决定将会是天然橡胶供应量 减少 20 万吨。目前老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨出产的橡胶出口到中国还享受 0%关税待遇，而泰国却没有，泰胶农团体 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 8 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（5 月 7 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.80%，收报 3342.67 点；深证成指涨 0.22%， 收报 10104.13 点；创业板指涨 0.51%，收报 1996.51 点。沪深两市成交额达到 14683 亿，较昨日放量 1321 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 7 日强势震荡，收盘 3831.63，环比上涨 23.09。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 7 日焦炭加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 1509.4 元，环比下跌 10.2。 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 6th, the A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13% to 3316.11, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84% to 10082.34, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97% to 1986.41. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.3362 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended strongly on May 6th, closing at 3808.54, up 37.97 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - On May 6th, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1501.6 yuan, down 48.4 [1]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of independent coking plants increased steadily with profit and hot metal growth, and the start - up of steel - enterprise - affiliated coking plants was stable. The profit per ton of independent coking plants was close to the break - even line, so the motivation for production reduction was weak. In terms of demand, the average daily output of hot metal last week was 2.4542 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons, showing resilient rigid demand. However, due to crude steel production restrictions and Sino - US tariff issues, the market was worried about steel demand, and speculative demand weakened. In terms of inventory, ports and independent coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The total inventory decreased slightly, and inventory was transferred from upstream to downstream [1]. Coking Coal - During the holiday, coking coal showed a flat performance. Recently, the news of steel production restrictions has depressed the sentiment of coking coal. On the supply side, the domestic coal supply continued to resume production, with the operating rate of 523 sample mines at 89.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, and the import volume of seaborne coal decreased due to factors such as profit. Overall, it showed a trend of "increasing domestically and decreasing externally", but the total supply was still relatively abundant [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short - term decline, short - sellers covered their positions at low prices, supporting the continued rebound of US sugar on Monday. Supported by the rise of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on Tuesday, but the decline in the spot price limited the upward space of the futures price. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated slightly [2]. Rubber - Boosted by the rising stock market, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday. Affected by the large short - term increase and technical factors, the night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher. According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [3]. Palm Oil - On May 6th, palm oil opened low and moved lower following the external market. The main contract P2509 closed with a downward - gap candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 7960, the lowest was 7918, and the closing price was 7932, down 0.53% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, affected by concerns about international trade tensions and the decline of soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with the M2509 main contract closing at 2915 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. As imported Brazilian soybeans are unloaded at factories, the operating rate of oil mills will increase rapidly, and domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to rise. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Live Hogs - On Tuesday, live hog futures fluctuated, with the LH2509 main contract closing at 13,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36%. Currently, the market is in the off - season of demand, and the overall consumer demand is weak. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply of live hogs in the market has increased. The live hog futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Shanghai Copper - Global economic uncertainty has intensified, but in April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to expand, providing some support for copper prices. At the same time, global copper mine supply has been affected, and China's economic recovery has led to an increase in copper demand. Under the combined effect of supply - demand factors and capital inflow, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed slightly higher [6]. Cotton - On the night of Tuesday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 12,835 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 76 lots compared with the previous trading day. The emergence rate of cotton in Xinjiang was good [6]. Iron Ore - On May 6th, the main contract of iron ore 2509 fluctuated and closed flat at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore decreased due to the maintenance of some port berths in Australia. Steel mills' rigid demand for replenishment supported the further increase of hot metal output, but the room for further increase was limited. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On May 6th, the main contract of asphalt 2506 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.32%, closing at 3361 yuan. The planned asphalt production in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Affected by holidays, asphalt shipments decreased, and social inventory was high. Recently, international oil prices have fallen sharply, weakening the cost support. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Logs - On Tuesday, the 2507 log contract opened at 784, with a minimum of 783, a maximum of 793, and closed at 789.5, with a daily increase of 521 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803. On May 6th, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and outbound volume increased slightly. Overall demand was still weak, and there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Steel - On May 6th, rb2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3196 yuan/ton. The hot metal output of long - process steelmaking reached the peak and then declined this week, and the operating rate of electric furnaces also decreased slightly. The output of rebar decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years. The actual demand was lower than expected. Currently, there is no new policy information, and the upward driving force of steel prices is weak. Steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Alumina - On May 6th, ao2509 closed at 2675 yuan/ton. With the increase in bauxite supply, bauxite prices still have some room to fall, which is negative for alumina prices. The situation of production reduction, resumption, and new capacity release coexists. There is still capacity to resume production in Australia and India overseas. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase significantly in the future [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 6th, al2506 closed at 19,785 yuan/ton. The easing of Sino - US relations on tariff issues stimulated the rise of US stocks and drove up the price of aluminum in the external market. However, the weakening of aluminum demand in the off - season restricted the upward range of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 67,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate is expected to remain in oversupply in May, and its price may maintain a weak - shock trend in the short term [10].