Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 25, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% at 3959.62, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33% at 13531.41, and the ChiNext Index up 0.30% at 3239.34. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1924.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4642.54, up 8.48 [2] - Futures Contracts: - Coke weighted index: Closed at 1722.2, up 1.2 [2] - Coking coal weighted index: Closed at 1113.0 yuan, up 0.7 [3] - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract: Consolidated and adjusted during the day and continued to fluctuate at night [4] - Shanghai Rubber: Rose during the day and closed slightly higher at night [4] - Palm Oil P2605: Rose 0.64% to close at 8542 [5] - Soybean Meal M2605: Rose 1.17% to close at 2760 yuan/ton [5] - Live Hogs LH2603: Fell 0.17% to close at 11460 yuan/ton [5] - Shanghai Copper 2602: Opened at 95910 yuan/ton, reached a low of 94180 yuan/ton, and closed at 96210 yuan/ton [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Closed at 14425 yuan/ton at night [6] - Iron Ore 2605: Rose 0.58% to close at 778.5 yuan [6] - Asphalt 2605: Rose 0.17% to close at 2995 yuan [6] - Logs 2603: Opened at 776, closed at 778, with an increase of 93 lots in positions [6] - Steel rb2605: Closed at 3127 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3280 yuan/ton [7] - Alumina ao2605: Closed at 2646 yuan/ton [7] - Shanghai Aluminum al2602: Closed at 22275 yuan/ton [7] 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi-primary metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Supply increased steadily as coking enterprises maintained production levels due to profit margins from falling coking coal prices. Demand was weak as some steel mills entered maintenance, reducing raw material purchases [4] - **Coking Coal**: Prices in some areas increased, such as in Shanxi and at Ganqimaodu Port. Supply was affected as some mines limited production after completing annual tasks, and the intermediate trading环节 was cautious [4] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decrease, with the central-southern region's output at 38 million tons, a 5% drop from the previous season. The overall Brazilian output is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons [4] Natural Rubber - Main domestic producing areas entered the off-season, reducing supply pressure. Global production and consumption in November 2025 were expected to decline by 2.6% and 1.4% respectively, to 1.474 million tons and 1.248 million tons [4][5] Palm Oil - Due to the Christmas holiday, major global exchanges were closed, but DCE palm oil continued its rebound. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, South American soybean production prospects were optimistic, limiting US soybean prices. However, China's procurement plan provided support. Domestically, the supply was loose, and inventory pressure was deferred to the far months [5] Live Hogs - Supply was high as farmers increased slaughter. Demand improved marginally as the peak of curing in the southwest approached, which supported prices to some extent [5] Copper - Supply was potentially disrupted by labor negotiations at a Chilean mine. Demand was weak as high prices discouraged downstream enterprises, except for some刚需 in the new energy and power grid sectors. Macro factors provided support, but market sentiment was cautious [5] Iron Ore - Global shipments and arrivals decreased, while port inventories increased. Terminal demand was low in the off-season, and iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate [6] Asphalt - The refinery's production plan for January decreased, and inventories increased. Downstream demand was weak, and prices were expected to remain volatile [6] Logs - Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. The supply-demand relationship was stable, and future price trends depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, but production remained low. Demand was weak but resilient, and cost provided support. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] Alumina - The market supply-demand pattern was loose, and spot prices were weak. Futures rebounded technically due to short-term capital and macro factors. Prices were expected to remain low and volatile [7] Aluminum - Macro factors were positive, but domestic fundamentals were weak. Aluminum prices were expected to remain high and volatile [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive daily gains. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements and market conditions, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 24, the A - share market's three major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.53% to close at 3940.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 0.77% to 3229.58 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1880.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 19.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4634.06, a rise of 13.32 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On December 24, the weighted index of coke showed a narrow - range shock, closing at 1727.2, up 5.6. The mainstream steel mills' purchase prices were generally reduced by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the third round of price cuts was implemented. The coke enterprises' production declined, and the total coke inventory decreased. The blast furnace operation and molten iron output continued to decline, with overall weak driving force [2][4]. - Coking coal: On December 24, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated within a range, closing at 1119.7 yuan, up 7.6. The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1100 yuan/ton on the futures market. The central government emphasized "dual - carbon" and energy - power construction, which was beneficial for the long - term transformation of the industry. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the coking coal inventory was increasing. The load of steel and coking enterprises decreased, and the price cut of coke was implemented, leading to a narrowing of coke enterprises' profits and rigid - demand procurement [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering, the US sugar continued to rise on December 23. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose sharply on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. In November 2025, China's refined sugar production was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to November 2025, the production was 12.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. In November 2025, the dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [4]. Rubber - Supported by the firm crude oil price and the increase of Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber rose significantly on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. At the end of November 2025, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.79 million, an increase of 380,000 compared with the previous month and 590,000 compared with November 2024. Based on the inventory at the end of November 2025 and the estimated sales in the next three months, the current inventory can support 61 days of sales, compared with 48 days in November 2024, indicating relatively high inventory pressure in November 2025 [4][6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 24, due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the US soybean export sales speed. Brazil's soybean sowing was basically completed, the weather in South America continued to improve, and sporadic harvesting had begun in northern Brazil, with an optimistic production outlook, which restricted the rise of US soybean prices. Domestically, on December 24, the M2605 main contract closed at 2728 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China slowed down, but oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons week - on - week and 554,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and oil mills had little motivation to support prices. It is recommended to focus on extreme weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans [6]. Live Pigs - On December 24, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11,480 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from the previous trading day. Currently, the enthusiasm for live pig slaughter in the breeding end is generally high. As the effective time for pre - holiday slaughter decreases, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises has significantly accelerated. The slaughter intention of individual farmers and secondary fattening groups has also increased, jointly pushing the market's live pig circulation to a high level. The demand side shows signs of marginal improvement. As the peak of curing and stocking in Southwest China approaches, the sales of fresh pork have accelerated significantly, and the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The phased strengthening of consumption demand has a certain boosting effect on live pig prices and alleviates the downward pressure from the supply side to some extent. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6]. Palm Oil - On December 24, palm oil continued to rebound but was blocked when rising. The P2605 contract closed with a doji star with an upper shadow, with the highest price of 8548, the lowest price of 8482, and the closing price of 8488, a 0.02% increase from the previous day. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with a 11.66% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.12% decrease in Sabah, a 0.75% decrease in Sarawak, and a 1.73% decrease in Borneo [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose strongly, closing at 96,100 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 95,260 yuan. The highest price during the day reached 96,750 yuan/ton, with large intraday fluctuations and active market trading. The final trading volume was 307,141 lots, and the open interest was 258,277 lots. The copper futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2679 tons to 52,222 tons, and the inventories on LME and COMEX also increased, showing an accumulation trend in global inventory. SMM predicts that China's electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low, and some smelters are in a state of production reduction. Globally, copper mines in many places have frequent accidents, with a 4.7% year - on - year decline in production in major producing areas such as Chile and Indonesia. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped to a historical low of - 40 US dollars/ton, and smelters at home and abroad have reduced production, which supports the upward movement of copper prices. The demand from traditional home appliances and construction is weak, but the demand from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI computing centers is remarkable, becoming the core growth engine of copper demand. At the same time, China's power grid investment has stable growth, supporting copper consumption. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to heat up, the US dollar index is under pressure to decline, reducing the holding cost of non - ferrous metals. The US has included copper in the list of critical minerals, and the expectation of additional import tariffs has led to an imbalance in the global copper inventory distribution, further boosting the copper price [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of December 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,175 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil price pushed up the cost of polyester, and the US dollar index weakened. Cotton textile enterprises replenished inventory as needed. The cotton inventory increased by 282 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Iron Ore - On December 24, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.26% and a closing price of 779.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased compared with the previous period, the arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season was still at a low level, and the molten iron output continued to decline. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On December 24, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.27% and a closing price of 2996 yuan. The planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in January decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand in the off - season continued to shrink, and the refineries' sales were blocked. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillatory operation [7]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 770 on December 24, with the lowest price of 769.5, the highest price of 777.5, and closed at 776, with a reduction of 112 lots in open interest. The spot - market support should be noted. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot - market price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [7][8]. Steel - On December 24, rb2605 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3285 yuan/ton. The weak demand pattern in the steel market in the off - season is difficult to change, the steel mills' production continues to run at a low level, the supply and demand are generally in a weak - balance pattern, the inventory pressure is not large, and the steel mills' ex - factory prices are mainly stable. At the same time, the prices of raw fuels fluctuate within a narrow range, the coking coal market shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, and the iron ore price has a slight decline from a high level. The cost still supports the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate within a narrow range [8]. Alumina - On December 24, ao2601 closed at 2554 yuan/ton. In the short term, enterprises have little willingness to reduce production. With the inflow of imported goods and the supplement of delivery goods, the short - term supply will remain sufficient, and the oversupply situation will continue, putting pressure on the alumina price. For further production - reduction situations, the market dynamics in 2026 after the execution of long - term contracts need to be noted. On the demand side, the northwest electrolytic aluminum plants had concentrated restocking before, resulting in increased unloading pressure. With high inventory, their willingness to purchase alumina on the spot market has decreased significantly; the supply in the southern region is stable, and only individual aluminum plants purchase at low prices. In the spot market, holders mainly focus on selling, and downstream enterprises maintain the rhythm of purchasing as needed. Most buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, driving the whole - day trading [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 24, al2602 closed at 22,330 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, non - ferrous metals are still strongly driven by precious metals. Silver has continuously reached new highs, and copper and aluminum continue to be driven upward. The market is optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and the expectation of loose liquidity strongly supports precious metals and non - ferrous metals. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side operates stably. The downstream aluminum - water consumption capacity in some areas has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the production areas has accumulated significantly. The shipment of aluminum ingots has partially recovered, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The demand side shows a weakening trend. As the end of the year approaches, both the purchasing and sales sides have cooled down, and there is a certain degree of production reduction and shutdown in Central China. Large - scale downstream processing factories maintain a certain demand. The demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials fields is relatively stable, while the consumption in the rod and bar fields shows some pressure [9].

1. Market Performance on December 23, 2025 Stock Market - A - share three major indices closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27% to 13368.99 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41% to 3205.01 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1899.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4620.73, a环比 increase of 9.11 [2] Futures Market Energy and Chemicals - The coke weighted index was in narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1719.3, a环比 increase of 9.3 [2] - The coking coal weighted index was in range - bound consolidation, closing at 1113.7 yuan, a环比 increase of 25.1 [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher due to factors such as the rise of US sugar and short - covering. As of December 20, 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 7.8122 million tons, a decrease of 1.3675 million tons (14.9%) compared with the same period last year; sugar production was 639,300 tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons (14.25%) [4] - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on December 23 due to short - covering boosted by the rising crude oil price. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area (bonded and general trade) was 5.152 million tons, a环比 increase of 163,000 tons (3.28%) [4] Agricultural Products - On the international market, CBOT soybean futures fell slightly on December 23. Brazil is expected to have a record - breaking harvest this year. AgRural expects Brazil's soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2741 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. China's soybean imports in November were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.32% [6] - The LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11,415 yuan/ton on December 23, up 0.62%. The supply of live pigs in the market is high, and the demand shows marginal improvement [6] - Palm oil continued to rise on December 23. The P2605 contract closed at 8486, up 0.86%. Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, and it plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year [6] Metals - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,030 yuan/ton, closed at 93,930 yuan/ton, with the highest at 94,290 yuan/ton and the lowest at 93,620 yuan/ton on December 23. The trading volume was 139,000 lots and the open interest was 241,000 lots [6] - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,135 yuan/ton on the night of December 23, and the cotton inventory increased by 13 lots compared with the previous day [6] - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 779, closed at 770, with a daily reduction of 87 lots on December 23. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7] - The 2605 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.26% at 778.5 yuan on December 23. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [7] - The 2602 main contract of asphalt closed up 0.27% at 2977 yuan on December 23. The asphalt production of local refineries in January decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [7] - On December 23, rb2605 of steel was reported at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3281 yuan/ton. The demand in the off - season shows certain resilience, and the steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [7] - The ao2601 of alumina was reported at 2520 yuan/ton on December 23. The domestic alumina production capacity is high, the supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand increment is limited [7] - The al2602 of Shanghai aluminum was reported at 22,195 yuan/ton on December 23. The supply is stable, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is cooling [7] 2. Key Factors Affecting the Market Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the third round of price cuts has fully landed, the coking profit is average, the daily output has slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream procurement is mainly on - demand [4] - For coking coal, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. The output of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction transactions are okay, the terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has slightly increased [4] Other Commodities - For copper, the copper concentrate processing fee is low, the mine supply tension is expected to intensify, the smelting cost support is strong, the refined copper supply has slightly increased, the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the new - energy copper foil demand is relatively strong [6] - For live pigs, the supply side is under pressure due to high - speed slaughter, and the demand side has a certain boost due to the approaching peak of curing in the southwest region [6] - For palm oil, Indonesia's biofuel policy and the test of the B50 standard have an impact on the market [6]

Group 1: Market Performance on December 22, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 13332.73, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 3191.98. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1861.9 billion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4611.62, a rise of 43.45 [2] - Coal futures: The coke weighted index maintained strength, closing at 1717.3, a rise of 24.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1098.1 yuan, a rise of 6.1 [2][3] - Other futures: The closing prices and changes of various futures on December 22 are as follows: Zheng sugar 2605 contract, palm oil P2605, Shanghai copper CU2602, cotton, iron ore 2605, asphalt 2605, log 2603, steel rb2605 and hc2605, alumina ao2601, and Shanghai aluminum al2602 [1][2][3][4][6][8] Group 2: Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Coke and coking coal: For coke, after the previous sharp price drop, downstream increased the procurement of cost-effective raw coal, and news such as "anti-involution" in China and Indonesia's export tax boosted market sentiment in the short term; for coking coal, the overall supply in the producing areas continued to shrink, and the high volume of Mongolian coal clearance and rising port inventory brought pressure to domestic coal [4] - Zheng sugar: Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar, the decline in imports in November, and the increase in spot quotes, short positions were closed, pushing the Zheng sugar 2605 contract to rise [4] - Rubber: Due to a large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Monday; at night, supported by short covering, it fluctuated slightly higher [4] - Soybean meal: Internationally, factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the price of US soybeans; domestically, the supply of soybeans was abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal was significant [4][6] - Pig: The supply of live pigs remained high, while the demand showed marginal improvement, and the increase in consumption demand boosted pig prices to some extent [6] - Palm oil: Affected by the warming of the external crude oil and the overall oil market, palm oil rebounded rapidly from a low level; the production in Malaysia decreased, while exports increased [6] - Shanghai copper: The decline in copper ore processing fees, the expansion of smelting losses, and the weakening of the US dollar and rising interest rate cut expectations supported the price increase [6] - Iron ore: The supply increased while the demand decreased, and the price fluctuated in the short term [6] - Asphalt: Supply increased, inventory decreased slightly, demand in the off-season continued to shrink, and the price fluctuated [6] - Log: There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and subsequent attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [8] - Steel: The supply - demand situation was weak, but due to cost support, the price might fluctuate upward [8] - Alumina: Although production decreased slightly due to maintenance, the overall supply was still in excess, and inventory accumulation put pressure on prices [8] - Shanghai aluminum: The production was stable, inventory continued to accumulate, and demand showed regional differences [8] Group 3: Future Focus - Soybean meal: Focus on extreme weather changes in South America and soybean arrivals [6] - Pig: Pay attention to the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6] - Iron ore: Follow the return of year - end funds, inventory changes, and macro - policy trends [6] - Log: Monitor spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [8]

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - On December 19, 2025, A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.36%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.66%, and ChiNext Index up 0.49%. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1725.9 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and policy [4][5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 19, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45, up 0.36%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.21, up 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3122.24, up 0.49%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1725.9 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4568.18, a rise of 15.38 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 19, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1702.6, up 34.0; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1089.9 yuan, down 0.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round price cut. The coking profit has recovered due to the decline in coal cost. Terminal steel mills' profits are under pressure, and iron - water production is decreasing. There is a slight increase in upstream mine inventory [4]. - Coking coal: Production has decreased significantly and will continue to decline before New Year's Day. Mongolian coal imports are surging, and the port inventory is close to 3.56 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is limited [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as a large short - term decline, a rebound in US sugar, and a decline in November's import volume, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly last Friday. China's sugar imports in November were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. From January to November, imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [5]. Rubber - Affected by the increase in Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory and warehouse receipts, Shanghai rubber fell slightly last Friday. As of December 19, natural rubber inventory was 110,885 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5343 tons; futures warehouse receipts were 87,160 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,170 tons. For 20 - grade rubber, inventory was 61,084 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons; futures warehouse receipts were 58,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons [6]. Palm Oil - On the night of December 19, palm oil futures prices continued the weak trend during the day, with a slight low - level fluctuation. Indonesia has started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 19, CBOT soybean futures prices were weak. Brazil's soybean sowing is almost complete, with favorable weather for growth, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina's sowing progress is slow, and some institutions have lowered its production forecast. - Domestically, the M2605 main contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is significant. The support of cost on price has weakened [6]. Live Hogs - On December 19, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The supply of live hogs is loose, but the demand in the southwest region is improving due to the approaching peak of curing and pickling. The price is under pressure but also supported to some extent [6]. Shanghai Copper - On December 19, the Shanghai Copper CU2602 main contract closed at 93,180 yuan/ton. Macro factors both support and pressure the price. Supply is limited, and demand has both positive and negative factors [6]. Logs - The Log 2603 main contract opened at 778.5, closed at 779, with an increase of 95 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is stable, and future price support needs to be observed [8]. Iron Ore - On December 19, the Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 0.52% to close at 780 yuan. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the price is in a volatile trend [8]. Asphalt - On December 19, the Asphalt 2602 main contract fell 1.95% to close at 2909 yuan. Supply is increasing, demand is shrinking in the off - season, and the price is in a volatile trend [8]. Cotton - On the night of December 19, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 14405 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 251 lots. Cotton - spinning enterprises replenish inventory as needed [8]. Steel - The steel market has both supply and demand decreasing. The macro - policy is in a window period, and the demand is weak. The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate narrowly [8]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is sufficient. Due to low prices, domestic production capacity and operation may decline slightly. The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The market is in a stage of oversupply [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - The price of alumina is falling, while the price of spot aluminum is strong, and the profit of aluminum plants is expanding. Supply is stable, and demand has some resilience but may be affected by the off - season. The market is in a tight supply - demand balance [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 18, 2025 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 3876.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the Chi - Next Index dropped 2.17% to 3107.06 points, with a turnover of 1655.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.79, down 27.08 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong, closing at 1697.5, up 89.8. Spot supply increased slightly, and steel mills' coke inventory rose significantly. As of December 11, 45 sample steel mills' coke inventory was 231.6 million tons, up 9.5% from mid - November. Steel mills' consumption decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and declining hot metal production [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index was trending stronger, closing at 1107.4 yuan, up 62.5. As of December 15, the price had dropped by over 200 yuan/ton. Coking plants' profit margins increased, but they faced inventory pressure due to weak seasonal demand from steel mills and tight railway transportation at the end of the year [3][5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined on December 18. The US Department of Agriculture predicted that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season would increase by 8.3 million tons (4.6%) to 1.89318 billion tons, consumption would increase by 1.1% to a record 1.77921 billion tons, and the ending inventory would decline by 2.9% to 41.188 million tons [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai Rubber futures closed slightly lower on December 18. Thailand's southern rainfall was forecast to decrease from December 17 - 23, and the spot price in Southeast Asia declined. Tire factories'开工 rate decreased, with semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization at 70.01% (down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month and 8.67 percentage points year - on - year) and full - steel tire sample enterprises' at 63.61% (down 0.94 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.72 percentage points year - on - year) [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans continued to weaken. As of November 27, US soybean export sales were 1.116 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting was almost finished with good weather. Brazil's December soybean export was expected to be 3.57 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The supply of imported soybeans was abundant, and the soybean meal inventory was high [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The LH2603 main contract closed at 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The supply of live pigs was abundant due to high slaughtering willingness. With the approaching of the southwest curing peak, short - term consumption demand increased [6] 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded on December 18 but faced strong resistance. Malaysia lowered its January reference price of crude palm oil and the export tariff to 9.5% [6][7] 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper futures oscillated at a high level on December 18. The supply side had low copper concentrate processing fees and limited increase in smelting production, while the demand side was affected by high prices, with social inventory accumulating slightly [7] 2.8 Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13965 yuan/ton at night on December 18. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November 2025, up 9.4% year - on - year, and 890,000 tons from January - November, down 64% year - on - year [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 1.63% to 777.5 yuan on December 18. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, with the iron ore market in a supply - increase and demand - weak pattern [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The Asphalt 2602 main contract rose 0.68% to 2952 yuan on December 18. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the market was in a supply - demand double - weak pattern [7] 2.11 Logs - The Logs 2603 main contract closed at 778 on December 18. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7][8] 2.12 Steel - On December 18, rb2605 was at 3125 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3277 yuan/ton. The coking coal production rebounded, and the steel market was in a weak balance in the off - season. With the rebound of raw material prices, steel prices were expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8] 2.13 Alumina - The ao2601 contract was at 2553 yuan/ton on December 18. The alumina market had a supply surplus, and the inventory was at a high level. Some producers' maintenance or exit led to a technical rebound in futures prices, but the overall trend was still weak [9] 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - The al2602 contract was at 21955 yuan/ton on December 18. High prices suppressed terminal demand, and the actual spot trading was insufficient. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at a historical low due to transportation problems in the northwest [9] 3. Investment Suggestions - For soybean meal, track South American weather and soybean arrival volume [6] - For live pigs, focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughtering rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of curing consumption [6] - For logs, pay attention to spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 17, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1811.1 billion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4579.88, a rise of 82.32 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1610.9, a rise of 18.5 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1045.1 yuan, a rise of 4.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar (2605 contract): Oscillated and slightly declined during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated upward during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Soybean Meal (M2605 contract): Closed at 2756 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76% [5]. - Live Pigs (LH2603 contract): Closed at 11435 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75% [5]. - Palm Oil (P2605 contract): Closed at 8342, a decline of 0.81% [5]. - Shanghai Copper (2602 contract): Closed at 92820, showing a strong - oscillating pattern [5]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13955 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore (2605 contract): Rose 1.25% to 768 yuan [6]. - Asphalt (2602 contract): Rose 3.58% to 3012 yuan [6]. - Logs (2603 contract): Opened at 771.5, closed at 769, with an increase of 1218 lots in positions [6]. - Alumina (ao2601): Closed at 2558 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum (al2602): Closed at 21915 yuan/ton [6]. - Steel (rb2605 and hc2605): Closed at 3084 yuan/ton and 3245 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 2. Price - related Information and Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Inventory increased by 14.23%. The short - term demand negative effect of steel export license management has been priced in. Although "industrial regulation" was mentioned, there is limited space for large - scale production cuts. Import coal has obvious incremental expectations, and the short - term winter storage expectation is pessimistic [4]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing. Demand may decline with the weakening of molten iron (molten iron decreased by 3.10 tons). Inventory is accumulating, and the inventory of mine clean coal increased by 3.36%. The price of some types of coking coal and coke has changed:临汾 low - sulfur main coking coal is 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged),乌海 1/3 coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton (+30),临汾 first - grade metallurgical coke is 1805 yuan/ton (-55), and Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1735 yuan/ton (-55) [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of November was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. The French Ministry of Agriculture raised the 2025 beet production forecast to 35.55 million tons, a 9.1% increase from last year [4]. Rubber - Affected by the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, the spot price in Southeast Asia rose, and Shanghai rubber oscillated upward [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly. Brazilian soybeans are in the growth season with favorable weather. Brazil's December soybean export is expected to be 357 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good condition. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, but the extension of customs clearance time eases the supply pressure. Brazilian soybean's good harvest prospects weaken US soybean export demand, and the upward driving force of soybean meal is insufficient [5]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant due to the strong slaughter intention of farmers. The end - of - year concentrated slaughter pressure still exists. However, with the approaching of the pickling peak in Southwest China, the consumption demand has increased in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil futures continued to decline. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 increased by 30.39% compared with the same period last month [5]. Copper - The US non - farm data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, creating a warm market atmosphere. However, the downstream copper consumption is weak, and the opening rate remains low, but the mine end provides strong support [5]. Iron Ore - The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, the port inventory accumulated, and the molten iron production decreased. The iron ore market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is in an oscillatory trend [6]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the demand in the off - season weakened. The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is oscillating [6]. Logs - There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, and the import window is open, while the demand growth is limited. The supply pressure exists, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. The demand at the end of the year has limited short - term impact on the market, but the spot trading atmosphere is warm [6]. Aluminum - The supply is stable, the downstream aluminum water consumption capacity is okay, but the inventory in production areas is accumulating, and the social inventory is low. The demand is weak, and the spot performance is poor, but some downstream industries have stable demand [6]. Steel - The steel market in the off - season is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Traders are reducing inventory, and downstream terminals are purchasing as needed. The cost provides some support for steel prices [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 16, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11% to 3,824.81, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.51% to 12,914.67, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.10% to 3,071.76. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.7242 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It was weak, closing at 4,497.56, a decrease of 54.51 [2] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: The weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1,599.0, a rise of 18.8. The environmental protection restrictions in production areas have been basically lifted, and coke enterprises have resumed normal production. However, terminal demand is poor, steel mills' maintenance is increasing, and iron - water production is declining, weakening the rigid demand for coke [2][4] - Coking Coal: The weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,049.2 yuan, a rise of 13.5. Near the end of the year, supply is tight due to production task completion and other factors, but Mongolian coal imports are increasing. After the sharp drop in spot prices, downstream procurement increased slightly, but the continued price reduction of coke limited the release of downstream demand [3][4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar)** - The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract declined significantly on December 16 due to factors such as the decline in US sugar and the reduction of spot prices. As of December 15, India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season increased by 28.33% year - on - year to 77.9 million tons, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of December increased by 19% compared with the daily average in December last year [4] - **Rubber** - Shanghai Rubber fluctuated narrowly. In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production increased by 11.4% compared with September, and the inventory decreased by 8.9% [4] - **Palm Oil** - The palm oil futures price continued to be weak on December 16, with the main contract hitting a new low. From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% compared with the same period last month [5] - **Asphalt** - The asphalt 2602 main contract fluctuated downwards, with a decline of 2.36% and a closing price of 2,894 yuan. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, inventory reduction slowed down, and demand was weak in both the north and the south, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [6] 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, CBOT soybeans were weak. Brazil's soybeans are in the growing season with favorable weather, and the market is worried about the decline in US soybean export demand. Domestically, the M2605 main contract rose 0.69% to 2,777 yuan/ton on December 16. Although the supply of imported soybeans is abundant and the oil mills' operating rate is high, the news of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans has relieved the supply pressure [5] - **Live Pigs** - The LH2603 main contract rose 0.4% to 11,350 yuan/ton on December 16. The supply of live pigs is abundant, but the marginal improvement in consumption is relatively mild. The market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5] 2.3 Metals - **Copper** - The Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 91,840 yuan/ton on December 16. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 9.75% year - on - year, and it is expected to increase by 5.96% in December. The demand for copper products is mixed, and inventory changes vary in different markets [5] - **Iron Ore** - The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 1.06% to 761 yuan on December 16. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is increasing, the arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory is accumulating, while the iron - water production is decreasing, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [6] - **Steel** - On December 16, rb2605 closed at 3,081 yuan/ton and hc2605 at 3,246 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, but the black futures market's rise has repaired some of the pessimistic expectations [6] - **Aluminum** - The al2602 contract closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on December 16. The macro - market sentiment is cooling, the supply is stable, and the demand is weakening [6] - **Alumina** - The ao2601 contract closed at 2,541 yuan/ton on December 16. The supply is in excess, but the price decline may be limited due to corporate losses and potential industry integration [6] 2.4 Others - **Logs** - The log 2601 contract opened at 753, with a low of 749, a high of 763, and closed at 761.5 on December 16, with a reduction of 1,531 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] - **Cotton** - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton on the night of December 16. The cotton inventory increased by 33 lots, and textile enterprises purchase as needed [5]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 15, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.77% to 3137.80 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1773.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 318.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.06, a decrease of 28.89 from the previous day [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1589.2, up 14.3 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal rebounded from oversold levels, closing at 1040.0 yuan, up 31.3 from the previous day [2][3] 2. Futures Market Analysis Coking Coal and Coke - Price Influencing Factors: Large steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of price cuts was basically completed. The spot market sentiment stabilized, but the steel mills' procurement willingness did not recover. Recently, coke enterprises in the northern main production areas received environmental protection restrictions, and the production load of coke ovens is expected to decline. The daily output of molten iron decreased seasonally, and the start - up of coke enterprises was restricted by environmental protection, so the rigid demand for coking coal gradually declined. The enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises for raw material inventory was not high, and the pit - mouth transactions were still sluggish. The winter storage had not started, but the daily output of raw coal in mines was also declining, so the supply pressure did not increase significantly [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Market Trend: Although the US sugar rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract did not follow. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot price and short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined on Monday and in the night session. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that the sugarcane planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 9.39843 million hectares, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month's estimate and an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 697.015577 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month's estimate and a decrease of 1.4% from the previous year [4] Rubber - Market Influencing Factors: The Thai Rubber Authority announced an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote rubber price stability measures. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November 2025 was 1.57, above the warning line. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08% from the previous period. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated on Monday, and the varieties rose and fell. In the night session, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher [4] Palm Oil - Market Performance: On December 15, palm oil continued last week's weak consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star, with the highest price of 8550, the lowest price of 8442, and the closing price of 8492, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous day. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from December 1 - 15 was 587,657 tons, a decrease of 16.37% from the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - International Market: Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the CBOT soybeans were weak on Monday. Brazilian soybeans have basically completed sowing and entered the growing season, and the weather is generally favorable for crop growth. The early - maturing soybeans in Brazil will enter the harvest period in mid - January. Multiple institutions estimate that its output will still be in the historical high range of over 175 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good growth, and the soil moisture is suitable. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the December supply - demand report to be 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November [6] - Domestic Market: On December 15, the main contract M2605 closed at 2752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and oil mills maintain a high crushing rate, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. However, the news of the extended customs clearance time of imported soybeans has fermented, and feed and breeding enterprises need to stock up in advance for the upcoming peak demand season, which eases the supply pressure of soybean meal and boosts the spot price. The high - yield prospect of Brazilian soybeans weakens the export demand of US soybeans, and the domestic supply pressure is concentrated on the far - month contracts. Affected by the US soybean market hitting a 7 - week low, the domestic soybean meal futures market was under pressure and declined [6] Live Pigs - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%. The enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter is high. Large - scale pig enterprises have the expectation of increasing sales at the end of the year to complete the annual plan. The slaughter willingness of retail farmers and secondary fattening households has also increased. The market supply of live pigs is continuously abundant, which directly and continuously suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the pressure of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year still exists, and the pattern of loose supply is difficult to improve quickly. The domestic temperature has gradually decreased, which has promoted the marginal improvement of pork consumption. The traditional pickling cycle in the southwest region has officially started, and the demand for pickled pork and sausage has increased. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly compared with the previous period, providing certain demand support. However, the current consumption recovery is still relatively mild, and there has not been a large - scale concentrated procurement phenomenon, which is difficult to form the core driving force for price increase. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [6] Shanghai Copper - Market Performance: The main contract 2601 of Shanghai copper closed at 92,490 yuan/ton. The main continuous contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 94,360 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 90,750 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 92,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1680 yuan from the previous settlement price. The trading volume of the main contract increased to 228,700 lots, and the open interest increased by 31,200 lots to 219,800 lots. The trading volume of the main continuous contract was 183,400 lots, and the open interest was 165,800 lots. Due to the cooling of the macro - market preference, the wavering of the Fed's policy, and the decline of global stock markets, the concern spread to the metal market and dragged down the copper price. On the other hand, December 15 was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2512 contract, and the 2025 long - term contracts were basically completed. The trade activity declined, and the downstream procurement was weak due to the high copper price, which further affected the trend of Shanghai copper [8] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.92% and a closing price of 753 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline month - on - month, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand decreased in the off - season, the decline of molten iron output further expanded, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2602 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.54% and a closing price of 2963 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the northern region was flat, and the terminal demand in the southern region was weak. It was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [8] Logs - Market Performance: The log 2601 contract opened at 753.5 on Monday, with the lowest price of 751, the highest price of 765, and closed at 753.5, with a daily reduction of 2234 lots. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9] Cotton - Market Performance: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,020 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 57 lots from the previous trading day. The area control target for the target price of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu or more than 10% from the actual sown area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025. Xinjiang's cotton planting will undergo a strong structural adjustment [9] Steel - Market Performance: On December 15, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3233 yuan/ton. After the central important meeting, multiple departments have intensively deployed key tasks for 2026, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize through multiple measures and comprehensively rectifying "involution - style" competition. Incremental policies will be introduced and implemented according to the situation next year. The macro - policy still has room for action, which helps to stabilize market sentiment. The coking coal futures rebounded sharply on Monday, providing certain support for steel prices from the cost side. However, the pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market is gradually increasing. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. In the short term, steel prices will be adjusted narrowly [9] Alumina - Market Performance: On December 15, ao2601 closed at 2537 yuan/ton. After the futures price fell below 2500 yuan/ton, it rebounded quickly, and a large number of short - position funds took profits. The current futures price has fallen below the industry's average cash cost line, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain has climbed to a historical peak. Some production enterprises are carrying out maintenance, and some downstream enterprises said they will increase raw material reserves at an appropriate time. Against the background of industry production losses, high - cost production capacity is gradually withdrawing [10] Shanghai Aluminum - Market Performance: On December 15, al2602 closed at 21,920 yuan/ton. Although the macro - level is full of positive atmosphere, it cannot offset the suppression of the fundamentals and capital side in the short term. Domestically, the central economic work conference made it clear that the proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented next year. Overseas, due to the unclear inflation trend and the strength of the labor market, the market faces uncertainty about the direction of the US monetary policy next year. In terms of supply, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 44.39 million tons, and the operating capacity has increased slightly under high profits, with little overall change. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional consumption off - season, the consumption resilience of industries such as automobiles, electricity, and electronics is strong, and there has been no over - seasonal weakening. The proportion of molten aluminum has also remained high [10]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, the A - share market showed a mixed performance across different sectors. Some sectors like stock index futures rose, while others such as coke, coal, and some commodities faced downward pressure. The market is influenced by various factors including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and external news [1][2][3]. - Different commodities are in different supply - demand situations. For example, the soybean market has abundant supply in the short - term but faces long - term supply pressure; the pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; and the copper market has support from macro and supply - demand factors but also faces callback risks [5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 12, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 3194.36 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2092.2 billion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4580.95, a rise of 28.77 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 12, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1548.6, a decrease of 51.0 compared to the previous day. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 999.7 yuan, a decrease of 34.5 compared to the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the first - round reduction of spot purchase prices has been implemented, supply is stable, but demand may weaken due to potential steel mill production cuts. The second - round price reduction has started, and coking enterprises maintain high production due to improved profitability. For coking coal, affected by Mongolia's plan to increase coal exports next year, it dropped significantly on the 11th. The supply is tight, but the Mongolian coal port's customs clearance has recovered to a high level, and the market trading sentiment is cold [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of short - term technical indicators, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing up the US sugar price on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly higher. As of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,860 lots to 201,910 lots [4]. Rubber - Affected by Thailand's rubber price - stabilizing measures, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Friday. As of December 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 12324 tons to 105542 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 11460 tons to 56990 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 604 tons to 61689 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2218 tons to 59573 tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - Multiple institutions estimate that the soybean production in South America is still at a historically high level. The sowing of Argentine soybeans is 58% complete, and the crop quality is fair. The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil's and Argentina's soybean production at 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November. - On December 12, the M2605 main contract of domestic bean meal closed at 2770 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.73%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil mills have a high crushing volume. However, the extension of customs clearance time and the pre - holiday stocking of feed enterprises have relieved the supply pressure of bean meal. The bean meal futures show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [5]. Live Pigs - On December 12, the LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11325 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, which suppresses the futures price. Although the consumption of pork has improved marginally due to the drop in temperature and the start of the traditional curing season in the southwest region, the current consumption recovery is still mild, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising during the day and falling sharply at night, with a slight overall increase. The highest price was 94360 yuan/ton, and it closed at 91550 yuan/ton at night. Short - term macro - economic easing and supply - demand balance support the copper price, but high prices may suppress downstream demand and lead to profit - taking and callback risks [6]. Iron Ore - On December 12, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.33% to 760.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore increased, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season decreased, and the iron water production decreased further. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On December 12, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.34% to 2962 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the north was flat, and the terminal demand in the south was weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On Friday, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 747.5, with the lowest price of 743.5, the highest price of 750, and closed at 749, with an increase of 10 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged compared to the previous day, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7][8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13905 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 142 lots compared to the previous day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [8]. Steel - The Central Economic Work Conference released positive macro - policy signals, which are conducive to market stability. However, the steel market is currently dominated by fundamentals. On the 12th, cold wave, snowstorm, and gale warnings were issued, and the demand for steel in the off - season further weakened. In the short term, the demand contraction may be greater than the supply, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the steel price shows a weak and volatile trend [8]. Alumina - As the pre - Spring Festival transportation capacity decreases and the delivery warehouse releases expired warehouse receipts, holders' inventory and sales pressure increase, leading to low - price sales. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, and although short - term production cuts may drive the price up, it is difficult to pass on the price increase to the end - market. The overall supply of ore is increasing, and the price is in a downward process. The alumina market has a supply - demand mismatch, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost - side support is weakening [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. The transportation in the northwest is restricted, and the arrival at the consumption area is normal. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, the aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. The current market is more affected by macro - expectations, with macro - factors being positive and fundamentals having both long and short factors [8].