Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the continuous weakening of the finished product and coking coal futures prices, iron ore prices made up for the decline. The support on the supply side of iron ore has weakened, and the high - toughness on the demand side has been shaken. The relatively strong pattern may be broken, and it is expected that iron ore will continue to weaken with the sector in the short term [2][3] - The external macro - narrative is more positive, there are still expectations for increments in domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage, which support the medium - term valuation of the black series. In the short term, the terminal demand is weakening, the supply of iron ore is steadily rising, the demand is falling from a high level and the short - term strengthening expectation is weak. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance, and short - term iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and the price is expected to follow the sector [3] - The price fluctuates weakly in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (Contract 2601) is in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has continued to maintain a high growth rate. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipment has reached a five - year high, and the shipment level of non - mainstream mines has been higher than that of last year for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than that of last year. With the continuous arrival of shipments, the supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the supply - side support continues to weaken [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has slightly declined, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.13 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.62). The profitability rate of steel mills is continuously falling, and the blast furnace profit is approaching the break - even point. With the military parade production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of the short - process steelmaking protects the iron ore demand to some extent, the support of domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ores at steel mills has declined but remains at a high level. The inventory at steel mills has decreased month - on - month due to more overhauls in North China. The port inventory has slightly declined this period. With the current high daily consumption and high pig iron output supporting demand, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is not significant [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝预计价格短期高位震荡 [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，个别钢厂预计1月20日后停产，停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2][3] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [3] - 成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [3] - 后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] 2.铝 - 宏观上投资者等待美国就业市场数据影响美联储货币政策预期，美联储降息预期升温等营造利多氛围，但国内政策托底传导至实际消费需时间 [2] - 9月氧化铝现货价格弱势运行，运行产能预计小幅增长，供应端运行产能稳中小增、产量微幅增长，9月铝水比例存回升预期，成本方面行业总成本变化小、高利润依旧 [3] - 需求端“金九银十”旺季临近，下游周度开工率复苏，铝型材龙头企业开工率环比提升1.5个百分点至52%，铝线缆行业开工率回升至63.8%，预计9月后开工率持续上行 [3] - 8月28日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存62.0万吨，较本周一增加0.4万吨，环比上周一增加2.4万吨，淡季累库与高铝价压制现货升水 [3] - 关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines, which drags down the market. In the short term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coal - coke prices will fluctuate [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Aspects Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices oscillated weakly. The 09 contract entered the delivery month, and with weak buy - delivery willingness, the futures price shifted from premium to flat or even discount, pulling down other contract prices. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources at coal mines had weak sales, and prices were weakly stable. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises started the 8th round of price increase, but major steel mills didn't respond, while some regional steel mills planned price cuts, and the market entered a game period [3] Supply Side (Coal Mines) - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi reduced production intensively. In Lvliang, some coal mines were affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen were stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal production. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal production is likely to increase slightly next week, but before September 3, main production area coal mines will focus on safety production, and some coal mines may have short - term production cuts [3] Demand Side (Steel Mills) - Last week's data showed that steel mills had no obvious production cut actions, and hot metal production remained high. The overall production restriction intensity was weaker than that during the 2019 military parade. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points compared to last year. The daily average hot metal output was 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared to last year [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term price fluctuations of finished products are large, and they operate in a volatile and weak manner. The price is mainly affected by fundamentals. Although supply has decreased due to pre - parade production restrictions, it is likely to resume after the parade, while downstream demand is unlikely to change substantially in the short term. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points from the Report Steel Production and Supply - As of September 1, 23 sample steel enterprises with 89 blast furnaces in Tangshan have carried out blast furnace shutdown and maintenance as planned. There are 16 newly - added blast furnaces for maintenance, and the rest are mainly for rotational maintenance and production reduction. The theoretical daily impact on hot metal output is about 122,300 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate is 74.62%, down 14.21% from August 27 and 10.35% from the same period last year. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. [2] - On September 3, production restrictions were implemented in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before the parade, leading to a decline in supply. However, supply is likely to resume after the parade according to market research. [2] Market and Policy - The Shanghai mortgage policy was implemented on September 1. The minimum interest rate for new first - home mortgages is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home mortgages is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an existing interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36%. [2] Market Sales - In August, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight 1% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. It is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million. [2] Product Price - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday, with the rebar 2601 contract once falling below 3,100 and the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract falling below 3,300. [2] 4. Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand. [3]

Group 1 - The report presents the change in sector trading volume [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand for raw materials remains relatively high, while the reduction in coal mine production is lower than expected, and mines are slightly accumulating inventory. In the short term, market sentiment is still fluctuating, and coal and coke prices are oscillating. [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated overall and weakened at night. Last week, the coal mine accident and the increasing expectation of overseas interest rate cuts led to a rise in commodities only on Monday, and then the prices weakened again. There is no further upward driving force in the short - term market. Attention should be paid to recent steel mill production restrictions. [3] Spot Market - On the spot side, the high - priced resources at some coal mine points have weak sales, and the prices are stable for the time being. This week, coke enterprises in Hebei started the 8th round of price increase, and mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. [3] Steel Mill Data - This week's data shows that steel mills have not significantly reduced production, and molten iron production remains high. The overall intensity of production restrictions is weaker than that during the 2019 military parade. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points compared with last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of steel mills is 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points compared with last year. The daily average molten iron production is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared with last year. [3] Coal Mine Situation - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi have concentrated production cuts. Some coal mines in Lvliang are affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen are becoming stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal mine output. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal mine output is likely to increase slightly next week. However, before September 3rd, main production area coal mines will focus on ensuring safe production, and some coal mines may arrange short - term production cuts. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, and the expected resumption is from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Macro Situation**: The market still worries about the Fed's independence. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is over 87% [2] - **Demand Side**: As August ends, the "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. The weekly开工率 of downstream industries shows signs of recovery. The开工率 of domestic aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52%, and the overall开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. However, the开工 rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 56.4%, and it is expected to have limited upward space in September [3] - **Inventory Situation**: On August 28, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Monday. The absolute price of aluminum ingots dropped slightly, and the receiving sentiment improved, but it has not reached the level to stimulate large - scale replenishment [3] - **Price Outlook**: With repeated macro - interest - rate cut expectations, it is expected to be high in the near term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance. In the short term, iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and its price is expected to follow the market trend [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the black - series commodities traded under the weak reality. The reasons are the pressure of futures - spot convergence in the near - month delivery logic, the suppression of the main contract price rebound by the cost of warehouse receipts of iron ore and coking coal 09 contracts, and the decline in the sentiment of the equity market which also suppresses the black - series sentiment. The super - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has depressed the valuation of the black - series, and the high - level decline of blast - furnace profits has limited the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the market [2] Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. The shipments of Australian Rio Tinto and FMG mines have increased significantly, while the Brazilian shipments have declined significantly after reaching a historical high, and the non - mainstream shipments have also declined from a high level. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level, and the supply - side pressure has weakened [2] Demand - The domestic daily average molten iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average molten iron output of 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into an overall loss again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. The support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can remain high and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline in molten iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2] Price - This week, the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of domestic steel mills' blast furnace production cuts has strengthened, which will have a phased impact on raw material demand. Short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and the price volatility of coking coal and coke has intensified [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Last week, the coal mine accident and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts only drove the commodity price up on Monday, and then the price weakened again. There is no further upward driver in the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the recent steel mill production restrictions [2] - On the spot side, the high - price resources of some coal mines have weak trading, and the price remains stable. This week, coke enterprises in Hebei region started the 8th round of price increase, but the mainstream steel mills have not responded [2] Environmental Protection and Production Restrictions - According to Mysteel's research, steel mills in the Tangshan area will gradually shut down and overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be overhauled, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116600 tons (including the previously overhauled blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared with the current (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared with the same period last year [2] Coal Mine End - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi have concentrated production cuts. Some coal mines in Lvliang are affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen are becoming stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal mine output. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal mine output is likely to increase slightly next week. However, before September 3, coal mines in the main production areas will focus on ensuring safe production, and some coal mines may arrange short - term production cuts [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the evolution of consumption [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and carry out maintenance from mid - January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. The market is closely watching the upcoming US inflation data to find clues about the Fed's interest rate cuts. After Trump tried to fire Fed Governor Cook, concerns about the Fed's independence persist [2] - The downstream demand is the core concern. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors have different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum plate sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles. However, as the aluminum price rebounds, the terminal shipment volume declines again, and the spot procurement volume of processing enterprises decreases significantly [3] - On Wednesday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 466,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and the downstream procurement sentiment is weak [3]