Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the boost from fundamentals to polyolefins may still be limited. Future focus should be on the macro - level. If macro - level policies are positive, polyolefins have the opportunity to rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - level Domestic - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of the previous month. New RMB loans in October were 220 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 280 billion. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; it changed from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [8]. - From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%, and the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [10][12]. International - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. CPI for October 2025 was not released on time. The CPI in September rose 0.1% from the previous month to 3%. The eurozone's CPI in October 2025 decreased 0.1% from the previous month to 2.1%. Both U.S. and European inflation have dropped to relatively low levels, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [13]. - After the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, it may further cut interest rates in December due to concerns about weak employment. The eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [15]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the U.S. economy, but the U.S. economy remains resilient. In October, the U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 48.7%, while the service industry PMI rose 2.4 percentage points to 52.4% [16]. Fundamentals PE - In November 2025, the production and capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.31%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, and the output was 2.8866 million tons, up 0.1 percentage points. The increase in output was mainly due to a 13.35% decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of a new device at Guangxi Petrochemical [19]. - In November 2025, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene was 44.59%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous month. The fundamentals of PE packaging film declined month - on - month, with the operating rate dropping 1.56% month - on - month. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased 7.9% month - on - month [20]. - In November 2025, the social inventory of polyethylene decreased. At the end of the month, the social sample warehouse inventory was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons from the previous month. Low prices drove sales and increased the frequency of terminal purchases [24]. PP - In November 2025, the total production of polypropylene in China was 3.4694 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%. Although a new 400,000 - ton/year device at Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II was put into operation, the total production decreased slightly due to one less day in the month [27]. - In November 2025, the estimated consumption of polypropylene in China was 3.4894 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The average downstream operating rate was 53.30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%, mainly driven by e - commerce promotions and new energy vehicle promotion policies [30]. - At the end of November 2025, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 546,300 tons, a decrease of 8.2% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 6.16% from the end of the previous month [33]. Market Outlook PE - In December 2025, the supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to remain. The demand for agricultural film will enter the off - season, the operating rate of the packaging industry may continue to decline, and the infrastructure demand in the pipe industry will decrease. The cost support will further weaken, and the market price may hover at a low level [6][35]. PP - In December 2025, although imports will continue to decrease, the supply pressure of polypropylene will increase as the maintenance plan of domestic polypropylene devices is basically over. The increase in festival - related orders is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify [6][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg futures market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the main contract hitting a phased high. However, the main contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan. The spot market prices of eggs in production and sales areas declined slightly week - on - week. The chicken苗 price remained flat but was significantly lower year - on - year, indicating weak replenishment confidence in the breeding sector. The supply pressure persists, but the demand has slightly improved. The market has expectations for the seasonal demand improvement during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, yet the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.走势回顾 3.1.1. Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market was volatile and rising. The main contract JD2601 closed at 3,293 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.73% week - on - week, and the JD2605 contract closed at 3,608 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 1.46% week - on - week [14]. 3.1.2. Spot Price - Last week, the average egg prices in the main production and sales areas decreased slightly week - on - week. The average price in the main production areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, down 0.34%, and in the main sales areas was 2.94 yuan per catty, down 1.34% [18]. 3.1.3. Chicken苗 Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken苗 in the country was 2.75 yuan per chick, the same as the previous week but down 36.19% year - on - year, reflecting weak confidence and a negative attitude towards replenishment in the breeding sector [22]. 3.1.4. Old Hen Price - Last week, the price of old hens was under pressure. The average price in the sample market was 3.98 yuan per catty, down 1.97% week - on - week [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the fourth - quarter inventory, but the de - capacity effect is slow, and it is difficult for the inventory to break below 1.3 billion by the end of the year [30]. - **Production Area Shipment**: Last week, the shipment volume in the main egg production areas increased by 1.89% week - on - week but decreased by 20.49% year - on - year [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens increased by 2.81% week - on - week, with an average slaughter age of 489 days [39]. 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales in Sales Areas**: Last week, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 4.89% week - on - week but decreased by 2.48% year - on - year [43]. - **Arrival in Sales Areas**: In the Beijing market, the arrival increased by 5.75% week - on - week, while in the Guangdong market, it decreased by 3.51% week - on - week [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume Analysis**: Last week, the slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises increased by 2.96% week - on - week [52]. 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1 day, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous Friday, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a decrease of 0.14 days [55]. 3.2.4. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the average breeding cost of laying hens was 3.47 yuan per catty, up 0.29% week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, down 3.7% week - on - week. The national average price of corn was 2,266 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton week - on - week, and the national average price of soybean meal was 3,055 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan per ton week - on - week [60]. 3.2.5. Related Products Situation - **White - feather Broiler**: Last week, the national average price of white - feather broilers was 3.5 yuan per catty, stable week - on - week but down 8.14% year - on - year. The average price of white - feather chicken苗 was 3.22 yuan per chick, down 3.88% week - on - week and 31.49% year - on - year [66]. - **817 Small White Chicken**: Last week, the national weekly average price of 817 small white chickens was 3.7 yuan per catty, down 2.12% week - on - week [70]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The main egg contract faced significant resistance around 3,300 yuan, but the bulls did not completely lose ground. Fundamentally, the growth rate of the in - laying hen inventory is decreasing, the spot supply pressure is still being released, the downstream sales have marginally improved, and the cold storage has started to buy at low prices due to the cooling weather. The market has expectations for the improvement of seasonal demand during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, but the high inventory still suppresses the spot market. Attention should be paid to the culling progress of the breeding sector [71]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly after the futures price stabilizes above the 3,300 - yuan integer mark. Conservative investors should wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [72][73].

| 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 1 | 年 | 日星期一 | 12 | 月 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.89%。 研究报告 铁矿周报 基本面：上周，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.09%，环比减 少 1.10%，同比减少 0.53%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 87.98%，环比减少 0.60%， 同比增加 0.18%；钢厂盈利率 35.06%，环比减少 2.60%，同比减少 16.89%； 日均铁水产量 234.68 万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 15,885 yuan/ton to about 17,220 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries in October, 29 had year - on - year growth in added value, with different growth rates for each industry [11] 3. Spot Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,015 yuan/ton, 17,120 yuan/ton, and 17,020 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - In September 2025, the global lead mine output was 392.8 thousand tons, an increase of 9.3 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years. As of November 21, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 280 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 64.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21] 5. Inventory Situation - As of November 28, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,799 tons, a decrease of 1,122 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 263,175 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.55% [30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Global lead mine output has increased, while lead processing fees are still slowly declining. Lead production in October remained at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a moderate level in recent years. LME lead inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory level remained at a high level in recent years [4][36] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the rebar 2601 contract rose 0.03%. From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry operation slowed down. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: There is a daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract, but no specific data analysis is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions rebar basis (active contract), but no detailed data or analysis is provided [16] Important Market Information - In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry's off - season characteristics are gradually emerging. It is expected that in December, steel demand may decline steadily, steel production will moderately contract, raw material prices will fall from high levels, and steel prices will fluctuate and stabilize [18] Supply - side Situation - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89% [6][40] Demand - side Situation - As of November 2025, the current value of the construction industry in the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.6, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing managers' index was 47.7, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [29][30] Fundamental Analysis - From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89%. The average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons [38][40] 后市展望 (Future Outlook) - From January - September, the profitability was good. In October, as raw materials continuously squeezed the profit of finished products and steel prices fell, the steel mill profit declined rapidly. At the end of October, the average daily hot metal output fell below 240,000 tons, ending the high - yield situation that lasted for 7 months since March. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [6][41] Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait for the stabilization signal to further strengthen and then try to go long with a light position on dips - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Wait and see [7][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the economic fundamentals show structural improvement, the short - term repair market is insufficient to boost market confidence. The long - term positive trend remains unchanged, but valuation pressure and external uncertainties will restrict the upward space of the index. Investors should be patient and wait for clearer market signals [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In November, the stock index futures market showed an overall volatile and corrective trend, with all major contracts recording monthly declines. Among them, the CSI 500 index futures had the most significant adjustment, followed by the SSE 300 index futures, while the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 index futures were relatively resilient. Specific data for major futures contracts on November 28th: SSE 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,505.8 with a monthly decline of 2.71% (125.6); SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,963.2 with a monthly decline of 1.72% (52.0); CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 6,974.2 with a monthly decline of 3.70% (- 268.2); CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,260.8 with a monthly decline of 1.46% (- 107.4) [5]. - In November, all bond futures declined. On November 28th, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.490 with a monthly decline of 1.60% (- 1.86); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.940 with a monthly decline of 0.43% (- 0.465); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.745 with a monthly decline of 0.32% (- 0.245); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.378 with a monthly decline of 0.12% (- 0.120) [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels [7]. - In November, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - In November, the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of November 28th, the PE of the SSE 300 index was 13.94 times, the percentile was 80.2%, and the PB was 1.45 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.83 times, the percentile was 88.43%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 32.03 times, the percentile was 76.47%, and the PB was 2.19 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.44 times, the percentile was 73.33%, and the PB was 2.44 times [15]. 3.4 Other Data - Stock - bond spread: There are two calculation formulas. One is (1/Index static P/E ratio) - 10 - year Treasury bond yield, and the other is 10 - year Treasury bond yield - Index static dividend yield [28]. - China - Buffett indicator: On November 28, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 88.25%. The current "total market capitalization/GDP" was at the 87.44% percentile in historical data and the 91.31% percentile in the past 10 - year data [32]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macroeconomically, the official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months, indicating continuous economic structural transformation. The non - manufacturing business activity index declined, with the construction industry showing obvious improvement in business levels and significantly improved market expectations [34]. - In terms of valuation, although the market has adjusted, the valuation percentiles of major indices are still at relatively high historical levels. The ratio of total market capitalization to GDP remains high, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still exists [34]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Adopt a neutral approach, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely monitor subsequent economic data and policy trends. For unilateral trading, consider bottom - fishing but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, consider covered strategies to increase returns [35][36].

研究报告 橡胶周报 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 市场存在多空分歧，或将维持区间震荡 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 14980-15525 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 价格先抑后扬，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15410 元/吨，当周上涨 170 点，涨幅 1.12%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，劳动力市场依然疲软，美联储降息 预期升温，提振市场情绪。从基本面来看，供给方面，主产区 受降雨天气干扰，橡胶成本端存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数 量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅 明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业半钢胎开工率小幅下降，全钢 胎开工率小幅上升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - China's procurement demand supports the CBOT soybean futures, while large domestic soybean crushing volume suppresses domestic soybean meal futures prices. The soybean meal futures prices are expected to remain range - bound [9][10][32] Summary by Directory Market Review - In November 2025, the soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The weighted soybean meal rose 0.20% to close at 2946, and the weighted rapeseed meal rose 2.79% to close at 2433. In the international market, the continuous US soybean contract rose 1.55% to close at 1132.25, and the US soybean meal fell 0.22% to close at 322.70 [6][11] Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybean**: The November USDA report lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast to 4.253 billion bushels, with a predicted yield of 53.0 bushels per acre. The export target was reduced by 50 million bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was expected to be 290 million bushels [14] - **Global Soybean**: The 2025/26 global soybean production is expected to be 421.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.1 million tons from the September forecast and a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. The global soybean crush volume was adjusted down to 364.98 million tons, while the export volume was slightly increased to 187.97 million tons. The ending inventory was reduced by 2 million tons to 121.99 million tons, with an inventory - to - use ratio of 20% [17] - **Domestic Situation**: As of November 23, 2025, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0565 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 102,000 tons. As of November 28, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 248.82 yuan per head. As of October 2025, the feed production was 29.57 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.3% [20][21][22] Cross - Variety Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the domestic soybean crushing profit in Heilongjiang was 97.85 yuan per ton, while the soybean crushing profit in Jiangsu was - 60.5 yuan per ton. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.71, at a historical average level. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.81, with a price difference of - 592 yuan per ton [25][27][28] Future Outlook - China has been purchasing US soybeans since late October, with at least 50 ships expected to be bought, which supports the CBOT soybean futures. However, restrictions on Brazilian companies may affect soybean imports from Brazil. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season started early but has slowed down recently, and the sowing progress in Argentina is slow. There is a high probability of a weak La Nina weather pattern in December, which may lead to less rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina. The Brazilian soybean premium has been fluctuating downwards, while the US soybean premium is relatively stable. If there is no significant production reduction expectation, the market is expected to enter a window for trading the pressure of Brazilian soybean harvest from December to January next year. The domestic short - term spot pressure is still high, and the inventory is expected to decline seasonally. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is slow, but the high livestock inventory and high cost - effectiveness of soybean meal in feed support strong提货, and feed enterprises have a certain demand for replenishing inventory [9][29][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current market still has a prominent high - inventory contradiction, and the improvement in terminal demand is limited. Although industry profit repair and the low - valuation pattern provide some bottom support for prices, before the supply - demand fundamentals improve substantially, the market is expected to continue to oscillate. It is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and consider a covered option strategy [8][45][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Overview - In November 2025, the price of the glass futures main contract FG2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a monthly change of - 2.77%, closing at 1053 yuan/ton. The national average price of the float glass market was 1135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, or 7.35% [5][6]. - The inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. b. Spot Price Trend - In November, the domestic float glass market price generally declined. At the beginning of the month, the market sentiment improved due to the concentrated shutdown of 4 coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area, but then weakened due to weak demand and high intermediate inventory. Near the end of the month, the market sentiment improved again due to the shutdown of some production lines in Hubei [9]. - The average prices in all regions decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, in North China, the average price was 1106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.22% [10]. c. Cost - Profit Analysis - In October, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash decreased. Soda ash (ammonia - soda process) was in continuous loss, and the average profit of float glass turned negative [15]. - The average profit of float glass with different fuels decreased significantly in October compared with the previous month. For example, the average profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton [18]. d. Supply - Side Situation - In November, the monthly output and capacity utilization rate of float glass decreased. The estimated output was 4.7634 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92%. The average daily output was 158,900 tons, a decrease of 250 tons or 1.55% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.38%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [23]. - The maintenance loss in November was 1.2374 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,100 tons or 3.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 22,700 tons or 1.8%. From January to November, the cumulative maintenance loss was 14.0396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9469 million tons or 20.99% [27]. e. Demand - Side Situation - In November, the total consumption of float glass increased month - on - month. The domestic theoretical consumption was 5.0019 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.42% [30]. f. Inventory - Side Situation - In November, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. g. Import and Export Data - In October, the import of float glass was 13,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons or 25.92% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 193,500 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons or 8.41% compared with the same period last year [40]. - In October, the export of float glass was 81,000 tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons or 32.81% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 857,400 tons, an increase of 445,800 tons or 108.31% compared with the same period last year [43]. h. Market Outlook - In November, the domestic float glass market continued its downward trend, with prices falling to a nearly ten - year low. The core contradiction in the market lies in the deep game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [45]. - In terms of supply, there is a substantial contraction, but demand remains weak. The profit situation has deteriorated significantly compared with October. In the future, the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level after a rebound from oversold conditions [45][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, pig prices may fluctuate due to multiple factors; in the medium - term, pig prices are likely to decline rather than rise under high supply pressure; in the long - term, as capacity optimization progresses, the supply - demand relationship will improve, and far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction. Currently, the supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and although demand increases with the drop in temperature, it cannot offset the supply increase. The oversupply situation is difficult to improve quickly, and pig prices may remain under pressure with the futures market likely to oscillate at a low level. Key factors to monitor include the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, terminal consumption, pig weight reduction, pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [8][115][116]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In November 2025, the main contract of live - hog futures LH2601 traded between 11,300 - 12,050 yuan/ton. It rose slightly, then declined and rebounded, showing a wide - range oscillation with a significant monthly decline. As of November 28, 2025, the contract dropped 350 yuan/ton, a 2.96% decrease, closing at 11,465 yuan/ton [6][12]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the national average live - hog price was 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous month, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of November 28, 2025, the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. As of November 20, 2025, the average price of piglets was 24.14 yuan/kg, down 0.99 yuan/kg from the previous month. The prices of 20 - kg foreign - bred ternary piglets in some regions increased slightly compared to the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live - hog supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 13,929 thousand heads; the global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 505 thousand tons [31]. - **China**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live - hog supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, a year - on - year increase of 11,781 thousand heads; the pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 592 thousand tons [38]. Supply - Side Situation - **Live - Hog Inventory**: As of September 2025, the national live - hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, at a historically low level [44]. - **Breeding Sows Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national breeding sows inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, at the lowest level in the past five years [49]. - **Live - Hog Slaughter**: In the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live - hog slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.85%, at a relatively high level in the past five years [54]. - **Pork Output**: As of the third quarter of 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.02%, at the highest level in the past five years [60]. - **Pork Imports**: In September 2025, China's monthly pork imports were 70 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%, at the lowest level in the past five years [64]. Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughter Volume of Designated Slaughter Enterprises**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of China's designated live - hog slaughter enterprises was 38.34 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 million heads or 6.98%, at the highest level in the past five years [70]. - **Pork and Main Meat Output**: As of September 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 731.2 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 436.8 million tons, accounting for 59.74% [74]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.43 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month; the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of October 2025, the feed output was 29.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, at the highest level in the past five years [77][83]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - **Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 248.82 yuan per head, at the lowest level in the past five years [89]. - **Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Fattening**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 147.99 yuan per head, at a relatively low level in the past five years [95]. - **Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding**: As of November 28, 2025, the profit was - 0.86 yuan per bird, at an intermediate level in the past five years [100]. Pig - Grain Ratio - As of November 28, 2025, China's pig - grain ratio was 5.1. The pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 recently, triggering a second - level early warning of excessive price decline, and the state has carried out multiple state reserve operations [105]. Recent Policies and Conferences in the Pig Industry - **Stable Livestock Production Promotion Meeting**: Held from November 18 - 19, 2025, in Bengbu, Anhui. It emphasized ensuring market stability of major livestock products, accelerating the comprehensive regulation of live - hog production capacity, preventing and controlling epidemic risks, and strengthening quality and safety supervision [108][109]. - **Executive Meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs**: On November 21, 2025, it passed in principle the "Opinions on Strengthening Comprehensive Capacity Regulation to Promote High - Quality Development of the Pig Industry", aiming to build a high - quality development pattern of the pig industry, improve competitiveness across the chain, and guide enterprises of different scales to develop [110]. Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Price**: In November 2025, the national average live - hog price increased slightly from the previous month, the price of binary sows remained unchanged, and the price of piglets decreased slightly [111]. - **Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, but the actual capacity reduction was slower than expected, and the supply pressure remained. However, national policies are conducive to the long - term market. The decline in the inventory of breeding sows in October indicates accelerated capacity reduction, supporting far - month contracts [113]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the low pork price and seasonal demand led to an increase in the product digestion of slaughterhouses, but the slow start of seasonal demand such as curing caused inventory to shift from the breeding end to the slaughter end. However, slaughterhouses are actively reducing inventory before the Spring Festival, so the inventory may decline slightly [113]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises increased. With the drop in temperature, consumption demand recovered to some extent, but it may not be sufficient to digest the supply [114]. - **Cost - Profit**: In November 2025, the breeding profit continued to decline, and the pig - breeding industry fell into deep losses [114]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main live - hog contract will oscillate in a low - level range in December. For unilateral trading, consider going long at low prices with a light position; for arbitrage, maintain the idea of reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [9][117][118].