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股指周报:市场短期震荡上行可期-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 07:10
上周 IF2505 报收于 3840.2 点,相较前一周 上涨 88.2 点,跌幅 2.35%。IH2505 报收于 2683.6 点,相较前一周上涨 56.4 点,涨幅 2.15%。IC2505 报收于 5702.4 点,相较前一周上涨 112.2 点,涨 幅 2.01%。IM2505 报收于 6056.2 点,相较前一周 上涨 150.8 点,涨幅 2.55%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 研究报告 股指周报 市场短期震荡上行可期 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员:邓夏羽 期货从业资格证号:F0246320 投资咨询资格证号:Z0003212 电话:13519655433 邮箱:383566967@qq.com 报告日期:2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 【行情复盘】: *特别声明:本报告基于公开信息编制而成,报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出,仅供投资者参考,据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 1、2025 年 4 月份,全国居民消费价格同比下降 ...
供强需弱库存回升,胶价维持低位震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]
铝周报:氧化铝产能出现下降,铝价或震荡偏强运行-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].
基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇反弹动力不足
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:43
研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇反弹动力不足 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011567 电话:15693075965 能化研究员:宋鹏 期货从业资格证号:F0295717 邮箱:2463494881@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周甲醇基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇期货同样弱势运行,截至 上周五下午收盘,甲醇加权收于 2239 元/吨,较前一周下跌 1.06%。 【基本面】 上周,国内甲醇生产企业延续复产多于检修,甲醇供给继 续增加。需求方面,上周甲醇下游烯烃行业开工整体走低,需 求端预期偏弱。库存方面,上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升, 待发订单下降,港口库存同样上升。利润方面,上周甲醇生产 企业利润下降。 【后市展望】 报告日期:2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 本周甲醇基本面缺乏实质性利好。供给端,由于前期甲醇 生产企业复产多于检修,供给已升至高位。需求端,由于烯烃 将逐步进入检修季,甲醇需求或将缩减。本周外轮到港或环比 减量,但近期港口库存总体上升。上周甲醇企业库存上升,待 发订单减少,也反映需求偏弱。总体来看,甲醇基本面依旧偏 弱。 本报告中所有观 ...
油脂周报:基本面差别,油脂走势分化-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:23
Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: This week, the futures prices of edible oils showed a divergent trend. As the palm oil main - producing areas enter the peak production period, the inventory will significantly increase in the coming months, and the palm oil price at the origin is expected to continue to be under pressure. The increasing supply pressure is pushing the palm oil price center of gravity to decline continuously. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for palm oil at the origin is intensifying. The re - allocation of arbitrage funds temporarily eases the weakness of soybean oil and rapeseed oil and promotes the return of the price difference between edible oils to a normal level. With the arrival of the off - season for domestic edible oil demand and the successive arrival of imported soybeans, the factory operating rate will further increase, and the soybean oil inventory will enter the accumulation stage. In addition, factors such as the promotion of biodiesel policies and changes in the international trade situation will also affect the edible oil market. It is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely [9][31]. Market Data Summary Spot Analysis - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,372 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton month - on - month. It was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. Other Data - As of May 2, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 711,000 tons. On May 7, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 332,000 tons [17]. - As of May 8, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,207,280 tons [20]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 664 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of May 9, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 145 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.66% to close at 7,780 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 3.22% to close at 7,886 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.62% to close at 9,355 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In terms of palm oil, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) showed that from April 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 24.62% month - on - month. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported a 17.03% month - on - month increase for the same period, and its data showed a 60.17% month - on - month increase in palm oil production from May 1 - 5. The palm oil production at the origin showed a strong upward trend, and the Malaysian palm oil price fell 1.68% [7][30]. - In terms of soybean oil, as of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, compared with 24% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 23%. The U.S. soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 5%. Overall, the start of the U.S. soybean season was normal, and the U.S. soybean price fell 0.57% this week [7][30].
螺纹周报-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] Report's Core View - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract declined by 2.39. Currently, the hot metal production supply is at a high level, and the market's expectation of steel mill production control has increased. However, the market still lacks overall rebound momentum and is likely to experience low - level fluctuations in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see [5][34][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific data provided [7] - **Spot Price**: As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific data provided [13] Important Market Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism, improve the interest rate regulation framework, and reduce the comprehensive social financing cost [16] Supply - Side Situation - According to SMM, the planned rebar production in May is 931.53 million tons, a 4.03% increase from the actual production in April; the planned wire rod production in May is 368.94 million tons, a 5.30% increase from the actual production in April. MySteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows a blast furnace operating rate of 84.62%, a 0.29% month - on - month and 3.12% year - on - year increase; a blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 92.09%, a 0.09% month - on - month and 4.42% year - on - year increase; a steel mill profitability rate of 58.87%, a 2.59% month - on - month and 6.92% year - on - year increase; and a daily average hot metal output of 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton month - on - month increase. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples increased by 0.2% to 88.9%, with a daily average raw coal output of 2.021 million tons, a 0.4 - million - ton month - on - month increase, and raw coal inventory increased by 21.8 million tons to 5.799 million tons [33] Demand - Side Situation - In April 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 51.9, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease; the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 48.8, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [22] Inventory - Side Situation - No specific data provided [28][30] Fundamental Analysis - The same as the supply - side situation [33] 后市展望 - In April, the hot metal production increased significantly, reaching a five - year high. The market's expectation of steel mill production control has increased, but the market still lacks overall rebound momentum and is likely to experience low - level fluctuations in the near future [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [35]
甲醇周报:基本面边际走弱,甲醇或延续弱势-20250506
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 09:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures showed a weak performance. This week, the fundamentals are expected to continue weakening, and methanol futures may remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - By the afternoon close on April 30, methanol weighted closed at 2,263 yuan/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened, while the sentiment in the port methanol market improved, and the basis within the month strengthened. The price difference between ports and inland areas slightly widened. As of the end of April, the average price in the northern line of Ordos in the northwest was 2,192 yuan/ton, the average price in Taicang, East China was 2,460 yuan/ton, and the average price in Guangdong, South China was 2,497 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, domestic methanol production increased again. The production was 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.97%, a month - on - month increase of 5.77%. Sichuan Daxing had new maintenance, while several enterprises resumed production [14][16]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 57.86%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week, mainly due to a slight increase in the load of some devices [19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 283,400 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 8.54%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,600 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 17.53%. The inventory of sample enterprises in various regions showed different trends, with most regions experiencing a decline [22]. - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 537,400 tons, an increase of 74,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 16.02%. Ports in various regions showed inventory accumulation [28]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 238.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.80%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was 320.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.00%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was 317.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%; the average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - This week, the fundamentals of methanol still lack substantial positive factors. On the supply side, the number of methanol production enterprises resuming production continues to exceed those under maintenance, and the supply pressure gradually increases. On the demand side, as olefins enter the maintenance season, methanol demand may decrease. The arrival volume of methanol this week is sufficient, and port inventory is likely to continue rising, increasing the supply - side pressure due to imports. However, the current downward pressure on methanol is not large, as enterprise inventory continues to decline, and port inventory is still at a low level. From a macro perspective, the US may intend to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, improving macro expectations, but the tariff issue is far from being resolved, and the macro positive factors are limited. Overall, methanol futures may remain weak [10][36][37].
全球贸易战,豆粕期价冲高回落
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 08:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose sharply and then fell. The domestic soybean meal futures price started to decline after a rapid increase at the beginning of the month, and the spot price also began to drop rapidly after reaching a peak around April 25. - The current sowing rate of US soybeans is higher than market expectations, and the current weather conditions are generally favorable for sowing. However, against the background of the expected decline in the sown area of US soybeans, the impact of weather changes on soybean prices will be significantly magnified. - Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and their huge export demand will occupy the original Chinese market of US soybeans. The Brazilian premium is expected to be relatively firm under trade frictions. The excellent rate of Argentine soybeans has rebounded, and the soybean harvest has accelerated. - The domestic soybean meal supply pressure will be very large in the later period. The average monthly arrival volume from April to June will reach around 11 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. Soybean inventories will accumulate, and the operating rate of oil mills will also improve. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. - After the festival, there are still short - term restocking and rigid demand in feed consumption. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate downward, but uncertainties such as weather in North American soybean producing areas, port clearance efficiency, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian tariffs should be vigilant [9][33][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In April 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures fell by 0.89% to close at 2906, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal fell by 6.25% to close at 2488. In the international market, the continuous price of US soybeans rose by 2.95% to close at 1044.00, and the price of US soybean meal rose by 1.57% to close at 297.40 [6][10]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA April 2025 Supply - Demand Report for US Soybeans**: The report did not adjust the supply - demand data of US soybeans for the 2024/25 season, but only reduced the seed use by 3 million bushels to 72 million bushels and the ending inventory by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels [18]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: The April supply - demand report predicted that the global soybean output was estimated to be 420.58 million tons, 180,000 tons lower than the March forecast. The import volume was 179.41 million tons, 210,000 tons higher than the March forecast. The crushing volume was 354.824 million tons, 2 million tons higher than the March forecast. The global soybean ending inventory was 122.47 million tons, higher than the March forecast of 121.41 million tons [7][21]. - **Soybean Output and Inventory**: As of April 27, 2025, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 103,100 tons, a decrease of 53,700 tons compared with the previous period. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory was at a relatively low level in history [25]. - **Pig - raising Profit**: As of April 30, 2025, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 53.62 yuan per head. Seasonally, it was at the historical average level [26]. Cross - Variety Analysis - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of April 30, 2025, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 188.5 yuan per ton, and the spot pressing profit of soybeans in Jiangsu was 599.8 yuan per ton. The pressing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was at a relatively high level [27]. - **Futures Contract Ratio and Spread**: As of April 30, 2025, the ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal was 0.87, and the spread was - 384 yuan per ton. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.68, and seasonally, the ratio was at a relatively high level in history [32][34]. Future Outlook - The price of domestic soybean meal futures rose rapidly at the beginning of April and then fell, and the spot price also declined after reaching a peak. The sowing rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the weather is favorable for sowing, but the impact of weather on prices will be magnified due to the expected decline in sown area. Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and Argentina's harvest is accelerating. - The domestic soybean meal supply pressure will increase significantly from April to June. After the festival, there is still short - term restocking and rigid demand in feed consumption. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate downward, but uncertainties should be vigilant [9][33][36].
股指月报:短期上行可期,中期压力犹存-20250506
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 08:07
研究报告 股指月报 短期上行可期,中期压力犹存 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员:邓夏羽 期货从业资格证号:F0246320 投资咨询资格证号:Z0003212 电话:13519655433 邮箱:383566967@qq.com 报告日期:2025 年 5 月 6 日星期二 【行情复盘】: 上周 IC2505 报收于 5590.2 点,相较前月下 跌 188.6 点,跌幅 3.26%。IM2505 报收于 5905.4 点,相较前月下跌 220.8 点,涨幅 3.6%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明:本报告基于公开信息编制而成,报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出,仅供投资者参考,据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、基本面分析: (一)根据最新经济数据,美国 2025 年第一季度实际 GDP 年 化环比增长率录得 - 0.3%,显著低于市场预期值,暴露出经济增长 动能的阶段性疲弱。尽管市场对美国消费市场的前景仍持乐观态度, 且在关税压力下美国经 ...
市场短期震荡上行可期
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 07:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The A-share market is expected to continue the trend of volatile upward movement after the holiday, and the gap formed on April 7 is expected to be filled. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocation, and reasonably control their position levels [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, IF2505 closed at 3752.0 points, down 22.8 points or 0.6% from the previous week. IH2505 closed at 2627.2 points, down 17.8 points or 0.67% from the previous week [5]. (2) Fundamental Analysis - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [7]. - In April, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand [9]. - In April, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that China's business production and operation activities continued to expand [11]. (3) Valuation Analysis - As of May 5, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.3 times, the quantile was 63.14%, and the PB was 1.74 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.65 times, the quantile was 61.76%, and the PB was 1.17 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, the quantile was 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [16]. (4) Other Data - The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the stock-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. (5) Comprehensive Analysis - During the pre-holiday trading period, the A-share market showed a volatile and weak adjustment trend, and investor sentiment was relatively cautious. During the "May Day" holiday, the Hong Kong stock market performed strongly, which is expected to inject positive momentum into the A-share market after the holiday [27].