Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market expectation for methanol has not improved, and methanol is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated downward. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,235 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week [11]. - In the spot market, the main trading logic shifted from the macro - level to the fundamental level. Due to the expected increase in supply, the market was under pressure. Although there was some support from downstream procurement and device startups, it was weak. As of May 22, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,334 yuan/ton, down 4.34%; in Guangdong, it was 2,356 yuan/ton, down 1.79%; in Ordos North Line, it was 2,069 yuan/ton, down 2.22%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,274 yuan/ton, down 1.81% [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, there were more maintenance than restart operations in domestic methanol production. The production volume was 1,961,475 tons, a decrease of 29,580 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a 1.62% decrease [12]. - **Demand**: In the downstream, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region increased significantly. As of May 22, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 68.78%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid increased, while those of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 336,000 tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous period, and the pending orders were 235,200 tons, a 14.03% decrease. The port sample inventory was 490,400 tons, a 1.34% increase [21][29]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profits of domestic methanol sample production enterprises showed mixed trends but generally declined. For example, the average profit of coke - oven gas in Hebei was 273 yuan/ton, a 13.79% decrease; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 237.70 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease [30]. 3.3 Outlook for Methanol Trends - **Supply**: This week, there will be more restarts than maintenance in methanol production enterprises. It is expected that the production volume will be about 1.9674 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.30%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased, and methanol demand has improved. However, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products such as acetic acid and chlorides are expected to decline [37][38]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons, an increase from last week. The port inventory is also expected to continue to accumulate due to sufficient imports [38].

螺纹周报 研究报告 中期震荡为主，短线或有走弱风险 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 26 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 日星期一 | 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.74%。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 任何保证。本文中的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 基本面：据世界钢铁协会，4 月全球粗钢产量同比下降 0.3%，至 1.557 亿吨；其中，中国钢铁 ...

研究报告 股指周报 市场震荡格局生变，弱势特征初现 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 5 20 | 年 | 月 | 日星期一 | 【行情复盘】： 上周 IF2506 报收于 3846.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 37.4 点，涨幅 0.01%。IH2506 报收于 2693.0 点，相较前一周下跌 2.2 点，跌幅 0.08%。IC2506 报收于 5561.8 点，相较前一周下跌 40.0 点，跌 幅 0.71%。IM2506 报收于 5872.0 点，相较前一周 下跌 61.8 点，跌幅 1.04%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]

研究报告 橡胶周报 胶价总体延续弱势，盘面或将震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14530-15115 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡回落，总体小幅下跌。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14535 元/吨，当周下跌 370 点，跌幅 2.48%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡回落，总体小幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 展望后市，从消息面看，5 月 21 日，欧盟对中国轮胎启动 反倾销调查，利空橡胶。从基本面来看，供给方面，天气扰动 主产区割胶工作，成本端存在支撑。天然橡胶进口增加明显。 需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均微幅回落。成品库存持续累 库，处于历史高位。终端车市方面，4 月汽车产销量均同比小幅 增长 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 基本面改善有限，反弹还需宏观面提振 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周甲醇基本面未有实质性改善，但受宏观面利好的提振， 甲醇期货震荡反弹，截至上周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2298 元/吨，较前一周上涨 2.64%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇生产企业检修多于复产，甲醇供给再次下 降。需求方面，上周甲醇下游烯烃行业开工延续低位，需求预 期仍然偏弱。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升，待 发订单上升，港口库存下降。利润方面，上周甲醇生产企业利 润涨跌互现。综合来看，上周甲醇基本面供需双弱，基本面没 有实质性改善。 【后市展望】 本周甲醇基本面没有实质性改变。供给端，本周甲醇生产 企业继续检修多于复产，供给或继续下降。需求端，由于烯烃 处于检修季，甲醇 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 1.52%. Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9]. Important Market Information - The Chinese side believes that the US practice of imposing 232 tariffs on imported automobiles, steel, aluminum and launching a 232 investigation on imported drugs is a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which not only damages the rights and interests of other countries and undermines the multilateral trading system based on rules, but also does no good to the development of its own industries. The Chinese side urges the US to stop the 232 tariff measures as soon as possible [14]. Supply - side Situation - According to Mysteel data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 84.15%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month and an increase of 2.65% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33% month - on - month and an increase of 3.19% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7.36% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 244.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month. The overall operating rate of 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan last week was 55.93%, an increase of 13.56% month - on - month, and the section steel capacity utilization rate was 51.68%, an increase of 3.86% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines last week was 89.3%, a decrease of 0.7% month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, an increase of 27.0 million tons month - on - month [4][33]. Demand - side Situation - In April 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51.9, a decrease of 1.5% month - on - month; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index of Lange Steel was 48.8, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month [22]. Inventory - side Situation No specific inventory data was provided in the content other than the inventory - related section title. Fundamental Analysis - According to the data of the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) in Australia, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland decreased to 46.6938 billion tons in April 2025 from 50.6610 billion tons in March; the spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 109,789 tons from 143,640 tons in March. Among them, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in April were 41.1047 billion tons, compared with 41.1912 billion tons in March [33]. 后市展望 - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to treat the market as stable, volatile and rebounding [5][35].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The MPOB report on palm oil was bearish, while the USDA report was bullish. Due to changes in the US renewable fuel policy, the demand for biodiesel changed, causing significant fluctuations in US soybean oil. With the fast planting progress of US soybeans and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans, the domestic supply of soybean oil will gradually shift from tight to loose. During the palm oil production season, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to become marginally looser. Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high with sufficient supply. As the China - US trade negotiation makes substantial progress, the market's expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations has increased, which may be bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile, and it is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds [9][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [12]. 2. Other Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 70.60 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 0.80 million tons to 32.40 million tons [16]. - As of May 15, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,542,630 tons [19]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 444 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20][21]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.33% to close at 7,754 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 1.24% to close at 7,984 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.83% to close at 9,277 yuan/ton [29]. - According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production in April was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.62 million tons; exports were 1.102 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62%, in line with Reuters' expectation of 1.1 million tons; inventory was 1.865 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.79 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.26% [29]. - According to the USDA's May supply - demand report, the US soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply. The report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazil's soybean output; imports will be 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; crushing volume will be 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; exports will be 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. US soybeans fell 0.12% this week [30].

研究报告 铅周报 铅供给有所增加，沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16835 元/吨附近至 17050 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 中美互降关税落地后，关税政策调整对铅价的影响正在逐步 减弱。铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大。铅加工费从底部 逐步回升，但仍然处于底部区域。铅产量持续增长，铅企业开工 率逐步攀升。电动自行车产量保持增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。 沪铅库存大幅上升，库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铅库存持续 下降，库存水平处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明： ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 多空交织趋势不明，胶价维持区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14555-15310 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格冲高回落，维持区间震荡，总体小幅 上涨。 截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14905 元/吨，当周上涨 285 点，涨幅 1.95%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格冲高回落，维持低位 震荡，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，从宏观面来看，上周中美两国互相大幅降低关 税水平，市场情绪有所回暖。从基本面来看，天气扰动主产区 割胶工作，成本支撑有所增强。天然橡胶进口增加明显。需求 方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均明显回升，企业出货表现不佳， 成品库存持续 ...