研究报告 铝周报 电解铝产能小幅下降，沪铝或震荡偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 摘要： 【基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 4.9%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从 环比看，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.17%。1—10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%。CME"美联储观察" 数据显示，目前美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 50.7%，维 持利率不变的概率为 49.3%。氧化铝在产产能小幅下降，氧化铝 总产能维持高位。电解铝企业开工率小幅下降，电解铝在产产能 出现下降。沪铝库存小幅上升，库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铝库存逐步增长。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡偏强趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议 观望为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 11 | 月 | 17 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.91%。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 基本面：国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 10 月，中国粗钢产量 7200 万 吨，同比下降 12.1%。1-10 月，中国粗钢产量 81787 万吨，同比下降 3.9%。 据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 82.81%，环比减少 0.3 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply - demand mismatch in the egg market remains unchanged, and egg prices are oscillating at the bottom. The near - term futures contracts are suppressed by high short - term production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the egg futures market showed a differentiated performance. Near - term contracts declined weakly, and far - term contracts reached a new stage high during the week and then fell back. As of last Friday's close, the main egg contract JD2512 was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.26%, and the JD2605 contract was reported at 3477 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.17% [6][15]. - **Spot Prices**: Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country increased month - on - month. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty or 3.43% month - on - month; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 3.03% month - on - month [20]. - **Chick Prices**: The average price of commercial chicks in the country last week was 2.76 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick or 0.36% from the previous week, with a year - on - year decline of 25.2%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%, and some are as high as 60% - 70%. Medium and large - scale enterprises maintain rigid replenishment, and the overall egg market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [24]. - **Old Hen Prices**: Driven by the slight increase in egg prices in the production and sales areas, the price of old hens rebounded slightly last week. The average price of old hens in the sample market was 4.14 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.49% month - on - month [28]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the inventory in the fourth quarter, but the effect of production capacity reduction is slow. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will hardly fall below 1.3 billion before the end of the year [33]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month last week. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6186.06 tons, down 1.81% month - on - month and 18.96% year - on - year [37]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 631,200, up 0.64% month - on - month, with an average slaughter age of 494 days, with the highest average age being 510 days and the lowest being 480 days [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume of eggs in the sales areas increased month - on - month last week. The sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 6501.44 tons, up 0.21% month - on - month and down 4.91% year - on - year [44]. - **Arrival Volume in Sales Areas**: In Beijing, the arrival volume was 95 trucks, up 5 trucks or 5.56% month - on - month; in Guangdong, the arrival volume was 580 trucks, down 35 trucks or 6.42% month - on - month [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Analysis**: The total weekly slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises last week was 2.4775 million, an increase of 99,900 or 4.2% from the previous week [48][50]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.1 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days [54]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The average breeding cost of laying hens last week was 3.44 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty or 0.29% month - on - month. The breeding profit was - 0.43 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 17.31% month - on - month. Although the breeding profit rebounded slightly, it was still in the loss range [58]. - **Related Products** - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The average price of white - feathered broilers in the country last week was 3.45 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month decline of 1.15% and a year - on - year decline of 8.24%; the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.35 yuan per chick, down 0.10 yuan per chick or 2.90% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 22.09% [63]. - **817 Small White Chickens**: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan per catty or 0.78% from the previous week [68]. 3.3. Market Outlook The main egg contract encountered obvious resistance near 3240 yuan last week. The futures market lacks supply - demand fundamental support and then started to oscillate and decline. The spot egg price remained between 2.9 - 3.1 yuan per catty, hovering around the feed cost line, and has not significantly stimulated the farmers' willingness to slaughter, resulting in slow production capacity reduction. Therefore, the near - term contracts are suppressed by short - term high production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts still depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Hold short positions cautiously and continuously monitor the culling progress of the breeding end. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage opportunity. - **Options**: Wait and see [10][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors with no clear driving force, and the market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Key factors to monitor include Sino - US trade relations, anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather conditions in rubber - producing areas, raw material output, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [8][9][84]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 14,955 to 15,415 yuan/ton, showing a slightly bullish and upward trend. As of the close on November 14, 2025, it closed at 15,215 yuan/ton, up 220 points or 1.47% for the week [6][13]. Spot Price - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,070 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from the previous week [17][20]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference, the basis narrowed slightly last week. As of November 14, 2025, the basis was - 415 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both rose slightly last week [24][27]. Important Market Information - The US government ended its longest - ever "shutdown", which boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed signs of weakness, and there were different views within the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. China's October economic data showed a slowdown in growth in multiple indicators, while CPI and PPI showed certain positive changes. The automotive market had mixed performance, with new energy vehicle sales growing and passenger car sales declining in October [28][30][31]. Supply - side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative output was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98%. In September 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries increased by 48,300 tons or 4.89% month - on - month, with varying production trends in different countries [39][44][48]. Demand - side Situation - As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.68%, up 0.01% from the previous week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.46%, down 0.96% from the previous week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [54][58][61]. Inventory - side Situation - As of November 14, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,470 tons, down 10,500 tons from the previous week. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0563 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the total inventory in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.40% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the global natural rubber production areas are in the peak season, with cost support. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly. On the demand side, the operating rate of tire enterprises changed little last week, with continued inventory accumulation. Terminal passenger car sales declined in October, and tire exports showed a mixed trend. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the futures exchange inventory decreased last week, while the social and Qingdao total inventories increased slightly [82][83]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view is that the natural rubber futures main contract is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The operation strategy is to maintain a range - trading approach for single - side trading, consider going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [86][88].

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly futures prices of oils and fats showed a divergent trend. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.88% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 0.18% to close at 8,644 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 4.09% to close at 9,923 yuan/ton [5][30]. - The current price of US soybeans is running strongly, and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has increased the uncertainty of the forward soybean import cost, providing bottom support for soybean oil and making it highly resistant to decline. The palm oil market mainly focuses on the change of supply and demand dynamics in the producing areas. The news of the implementation of Canada's biodiesel policy boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the continuous tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil, the market's bullish sentiment is high, and the futures price of rapeseed oil has increased significantly. In addition, the high inventory of soybeans at domestic ports and the slow recovery of the terminal catering demand for oils and fats will also suppress the upward space of oil prices. It is expected that oils and fats will run in a range [9][31][32]. Group 2: Important Information Palm Oil - On November 10, MPOB released the official supply and demand data of Malaysian palm oil for October. The production in October was 2.044 million tons, exports were 1.693 million tons, and inventory was 2.464 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.36% [6]. - The production in October increased 11% month-on-month, slightly lower than MPOA's estimate of 2.07 million tons. Exports in October increased 18.6% month-on-month, far exceeding the previous market estimate of 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. The inventory estimate was close to the initial estimates of Bloomberg and Reuters at 2.44 million tons but lower than the adjusted estimated inventory of 2.5 - 2.6 million tons after MPOA's production data adjustment [30]. Soybean Oil - USDA released the November supply and demand data. In this report, the carry-over stock of old US soybeans in the 2024/25 season was lowered from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the new balance sheet of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels/acre to 53 bushels/acre. The crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels, exports were lowered from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and the carry-over was lowered from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels. The report data was basically in line with market expectations, and the yield data was not surprising, with the impact on prices showing as the exhaustion of bullish factors. US soybeans rose 0.47% this week [7][31]. Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [11]. - As of November 13, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current spot price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13]. Group 4: Other Data - As of November 7, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 88,000 tons to 1.37 million tons. On November 12, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 633,000 tons [17]. - As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports was 8,189,470 tons [20]. - As of November 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 304 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21]. - As of November 14, 2025, the basis of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was -54 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at an average level compared to the past five years [22]. - As of November 13, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 325 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, the current basis is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and methanol is likely to continue its downward trend. In the short term, the demand for methanol downstream olefins is clearly weak, and there is no expectation of a contraction in domestic supply for the time being. Attention should be paid to import pressure. If the supply and demand remain weak, methanol will still operate weakly. A bear spread strategy can be considered [1][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply and demand of methanol continued to be weak, and methanol futures continued to fall. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol closed at 2,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the high inventory situation at ports continued, and under high supply pressure, the port methanol market continued to decline. Although there was a short - term rebound due to the news of large - scale plant shutdowns inland, the rebound was limited, and the overall port price fluctuated and declined. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,050 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,080 to 2,190 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the supply - demand pattern remained weak. With the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port goods, market sentiment was significantly impacted. Later in the week, as some plants in the production area shut down and the external procurement demand for olefins increased, the market sentiment improved, and some low - priced goods were withheld from sale, with local prices stopping falling and rebounding. The price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranged from 1,965 to 2,005 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying, a downstream area, ranged from 2,155 to 2,223 yuan/ton [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - According to Longzhong Information, last week (October 31 - November 6, 2025), China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [15] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: - Olefins: The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted. The load of Luxi in Shandong was at a low level, while the load of Hengyou in Xinjiang increased. After offsetting, the industry's operation continued to decline. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 82.97%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points [17] - Dimethyl ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The Lianxin plant was shut down after a short - term operation, and other plants had no shutdown or maintenance plans. The loss was greater than the recovery, so the overall capacity utilization rate declined [17] - Glacial acetic acid: Last week, the second - phase plant of Huayi in Guangxi malfunctioned and shut down, and Shunda reduced its load. Other plants maintained their previous loads, so the load continued to decline [17] - Chlorides: The operation rate of methane chlorides last week was 63.54%. Although some plants increased their loads, some plants in Luxi, Shandong and Huatai in Dongying shut down, and the plant of Dongyue in Shandong reduced its load. The overall capacity utilization rate still showed a downward trend [19] - Formaldehyde: The operation rate last week was 41.75%. The Wende Cheng plant increased its load, and the recovery was greater than the loss, so the overall capacity utilization rate increased [19] 2.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57% [21] - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The visible unloading of foreign vessels last week was 232,000 tons, and the invisible unloading was 113,800 tons, with some unloading not yet included. The提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu was weak, while the demand in Zhejiang remained stable. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly. In Guangdong, both foreign and domestic vessels arrived at the port. With the stable demand of local and surrounding downstream industries, the提货 from mainstream storage areas increased, and the inventory decreased. In Fujian, foreign vessels continued to unload, and there were still some vessels being unloaded not yet included in the inventory. With the rigid demand consumption of downstream industries, the inventory also decreased [23] 2.4 Profit - According to Longzhong Information, last week (October 31 - November 6, 2025), the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples continued to be poor, and the profitability of each route continued to be squeezed. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 218.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 42.06%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 304.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74.73%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 286.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99%; the average weekly profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 149.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 27.32%; the average weekly profit of methanol made from natural gas in the southwest was - 314.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.77%. With the gradual release of seasonal demand, the coal price has gradually risen recently, and the cost of methanol has increased accordingly. In addition, the gas price was raised as scheduled in early November, and the cost pressure of gas - to - methanol has also increased. The weak supply and demand of methanol are prominent, and the overall willingness to hold goods is weak, suppressing the price decline. Therefore, the profitability of methanol production by various processes continues to be squeezed [25] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, there may be more restarts than overhauls of domestic methanol plants. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0084 million tons this week, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from last week [30] - Downstream demand for methanol: - Olefins: Hengtong in Shandong is expected to shut down, and the loads of enterprises in the northwest and east are expected to increase. After offsetting, the industry's operation will decline slightly [32] - Dimethyl ether: There are no overhaul plans for dimethyl ether plants this week. If there are no unexpected shutdowns or startups of other plants, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat [32] - Glacial acetic acid: It is expected that the Thorpe plant will restart after maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [33] - Formaldehyde: After the restart of the Wende Cheng plant this week, it will continue to operate stably. Other plants have no shutdown or overhaul plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly [33] - Chlorides: Some previously shut - down plants may restart this week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase [34] - Inventory: The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 378,700 tons this week, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Some large plants in the production area shut down unexpectedly last week, resulting in a decrease in supply. At the same time, the external procurement demand for olefins provided support, and enterprises in most regions sold goods at a discount, driving an improvement in signing. Under the combined effect of supply and demand factors, it is expected that the inventory of sample enterprises will decrease slightly this week. In terms of port inventory, it is expected that the visible unloading volume of foreign vessels will be high, and the port methanol inventory may continue to accumulate next week. The unloading speed of foreign vessels should be specifically monitored. Overall, the supply and demand of methanol remain loose, there is no substantial positive driving force for the fundamentals, and methanol is likely to remain weak in the short term [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai Copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][44] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, the main contract CU2512 of Shanghai Copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 84,900 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 87,400 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with contract prices ranging from around 10,580 - 10,925 US dollars/ton [11] (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Governor Milan expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December. He wants to reach the neutral interest rate in steps of 50 basis points, while many colleagues hope to adjust in steps of 25 basis points. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37.5% [2][14][43] (3) Spot Analysis - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 85,995 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 86,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 85,880 yuan/ton, 85,830 yuan/ton, 86,020 yuan/ton, and 85,960 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic copper remained around a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [17] (4) Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 2025, China's copper smelter rough smelting fee was - 41.9 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was 4 cents/pound [24] - As of September 2025, the monthly output of automobiles was 3.2265 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [26] (5) Inventory Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 115,035 tons, a decrease of 1,105 tons from the previous week. As of November 5, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 133,975 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.99%. As of November 6, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 366,419 tons, an increase of 3,051 tons from the previous trading day. As of November 6, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 101,800 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 19,100 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 46,800 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,700 tons from the previous week [33] (6) Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Fed Governor Milan expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December. He wants to reach the neutral interest rate in steps of 50 basis points, while many colleagues hope to adjust in steps of 25 basis points. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37.5%. Global copper supply and demand are both at high levels, and the copper supply and demand are basically balanced. The copper smelting processing fee has increased slightly but is still at a historical low. In September, automobile production continued to increase year - on - year, while air conditioner production decreased year - on - year. Shanghai Copper inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory level is at a moderate position in recent years. COMEX copper inventory continued to increase significantly [43] (7) Future Outlook - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai Copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black market returned to the fundamental logic of weak terminal demand. The apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the destocking slowed down, market sentiment weakened, and iron ore port inventories increased significantly. The fundamentals of iron ore were further pressured. The loss - making range of steel mills continued to expand, pig iron production continued to decline. Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [4][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 4.58% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increase. The gold reserves at the end of September were reported at 74.06 million ounces. The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the 2025 No. 29 announcement on suspending the import of US logs, effective from November 10, 2025 [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 from the previous month. The iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 66.842 million tons, an increase of 1.671 million tons from the previous month; the shipment volume from Brazil was 29.255 million tons, an increase of 1.057 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - According to Mysteel, last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.84 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.3422 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,400 tons [33] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - In the first 10 months, China's iron ore imports were 1.029 billion tons, an increase of 0.7%, and the import average price decreased by 10.7%. In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. In October, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a decrease of 683,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%; from January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 148.9883 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5635 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2093 million tons, an increase of 77,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 9. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 156.2413 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5120 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3555 million tons, an increase of 433,000 tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [35] 3.7 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Go short lightly at high prices - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [5][36]

研究报告 新粮上市与政策托底，玉米市场延续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周玉米期货主力合约盘面震荡偏强运行，成交量与持仓量 同步放大，市场情绪由弱转强，截至上周五收盘，玉米主力合约 C2601 收报 2149 元/吨，涨 0.33%，成交量 369,190 手，持仓量 457973 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 10 日星期一 上周玉米价格整体区域分化，周度均价 2207 元/吨。东北地 区走势不一，整体稳定，局部价格如沈阳出现 30 元/吨下调；华 北价格先扬后抑，山东寿光收购价上涨 52 元/吨。销区市场波动 差异化，成都价格下跌 30 元/吨而南通上涨 50 元/吨。南北港口 价格则普遍上涨，锦州、鲅鱼圈平舱价及蛇口、漳州港自提价均 有 10-30 元/吨不等的涨幅。 【后市展望】 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].