Report Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 1.53%. Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: No detailed content provided [7] - **Spread Analysis**: Focused on the basis (per dry ton), no detailed data given [12] - **Position Analysis**: Conducted a net position analysis of futures seats, no detailed data given [10] 2. Important Market Information - The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port toll on US - related ships from October 14th. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices and will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese entities. Since mid - September, Tangshan, Hebei has implemented an environmental protection production restriction policy, and the restriction intensity has increased after the holiday [15]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 million tons, an increase of 434.2 million tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 million tons, a decrease of 415.9 million tons from the first half of the month [19][22]. 4. Demand - side Situation - No detailed data provided, but the report mentioned 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, Tangshan's blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire and bar procurement volume [24][25][26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of October 8th, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons or 1.75% from the previous week, and the total rebar inventory was 659.64 million tons, a cumulative increase of 57.39 million tons. On October 10th, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9046.19 million tons, a decrease of 990.60 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore in sample steel mills was 299.14 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 14024.50 million tons, an increase of 24.22 million tons; the inventory in 47 ports was 14641.08 million tons, an increase of 90.40 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week and an increase of 3.48% year - on - year. In late September 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1889 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 188.9 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9%; 1817 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181.7 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9%; 2142 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 214.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.0% [29][30][31] 6. Market Outlook - Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][32] 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Try to go long lightly at low levels within the range - **Arbitrage**: Long iron ore - short rebar arbitrage strategy - **Options**: Wait and see [6][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates in October, and the Shanghai aluminum price may show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. The price fluctuation of aluminum is narrowing, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe the option contracts [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2511 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 20,830 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,205 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Fed's decision to cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in September received support from the majority of committee members. The only dissenting vote was from new Fed Governor Milan, who advocated a larger 50 - basis - point rate cut. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October remains firm, with a probability of nearly 95% [2][10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 2025, domestic bauxite imports decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a high level in the past five years. As of September 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity continued to increase, and the inventory was at a low level. The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high, and the operating rate continued to rise. The output of aluminum products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the output of aluminum alloy remained high [2][13][32] 4. Inventory Situation - As of October 10, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly compared to the previous week, and the LME aluminum inventory also increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly on October 9, 2025. The overall inventory level of Shanghai aluminum was at a low level in recent years [2][22][32] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October. The bauxite imports remain high, the alumina in - production capacity continues to rise, and the inventory is low. The electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity remains high, and the operating rate continues to climb. The output of aluminum products has decreased, while the output of aluminum alloy remains high. The Shanghai aluminum inventory has increased slightly and is at a low level in recent years [2][32] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. The price fluctuation is narrowing, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe the option contracts [3][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the long holiday, the futures prices of edible oils rose first and then fell. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 1.99% to close at 8,302 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 2.28% to close at 9,438 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.19% to close at 10,061 yuan/ton [5][31]. - In the international market, the bottom - oscillation of international crude oil has intensified, suppressing the upward trend of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The high inventory pressure in September may restrict the further rise of futures prices, but the Indonesian B50 plan supports long - term demand, and the increase in exports since October has also boosted the market [9][32]. - In the domestic market, the relations between China and Canada, and China and the US still have a great impact on rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The news of the US imposing additional tariffs on China over the weekend has caused turmoil in the global financial market, and there is a high possibility of significant high - level market oscillations under policy uncertainty [9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Analysis - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [13]. b. Other Data - As of September 26, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.461 million tons. On October 1, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 581,000 tons [17]. - As of October 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,579,700 tons [19]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22][23]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [25]. c. Comprehensive Analysis - Palm oil: From September 1 - 30, 2025, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 2.35%. The total estimated production in September was 1.81 million tons. The single - yield decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.34% [7][31]. - Soybean oil: As of now, the export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season have only completed 23.7% of the annual target, far lower than the 5 - year average of 43.4%. The slow sales pace may force the US to lower its export forecast and increase the ending inventory. From January - September 2025, China imported 72.7 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, accounting for 77.4% of Brazil's total soybean exports. US soybeans fell 0.98% this week [7][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the future upward momentum may mainly come from macro - level support. The domestic macro - environment is likely to improve, and there is also a possibility of improvement in the international macro - environment [8][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Situation Domestic - As of the end of August 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9] - In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat [12] - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. New commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. Real estate development enterprise funds in place were 643.18 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [14] - In August 2025, macro - economic data showed no significant improvement, and demand remained weak. Except for the improvement in PPI, other economic indicators were weak. However, the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, approaching the 50% boom - bust line, indicating possible improvement in September's macro - economic data [16][17] International - In August 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.9%. In September 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.2%. Current inflation in Europe and the US has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost economic growth [18] - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. The Eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [20] - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy, but the US economy remains resilient. In September, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.1%, and the service PMI decreased by 2 percentage points to 50% [23] - During the National Day, the US government shut down again, increasing market concerns. Wall Street analysts pointed out that this may lead to further deterioration of the US job market. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.1% [25] 2. Fundamentals PE - In September 2025, PE production and capacity utilization declined. Capacity utilization was 80.47%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous period, and production was 2.7079 million tons, a decrease of 4.22 percentage points from the previous period. The decrease was mainly due to the shutdown of new devices [27] - In September, the peak consumption season for PE arrived, and demand increased. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 11.3% month - on - month, and the average start - up rate of packaging film was 51.48%, an increase of 2.04% month - on - month [30] - In September, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE decreased. At the end of the month, the inventory was 524,500 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons month - on - month and 54,500 tons year - on - year [31] - In September, the PE fundamentals improved. Supply decreased while demand continued to pick up, leading to a decrease in social inventory and stronger support for PE prices [36] PP - In September 2025, China's PP production was 3.3446 million tons, a decrease of 159,900 tons from August, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% and a year - on - year increase of 13.73%. Production decreased significantly due to equipment failures and cost reasons [37] - In September, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 51.10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. Although the start - up rates of some industries increased, the demand for modified PP and PP pipes declined significantly year - on - year [38][40] - At the end of September 2025, the inventory of PP producers was 520,300 tons, a decrease of 3.39% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of PP traders was 187,200 tons, an increase of 1.90% from the end of the previous month [43] - In September, PP also showed a relatively good situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand [46] 3. Market Outlook - For PE in October 2025, domestic supply will face pressure from the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices. Import volume will increase under the condition of loose overseas supply. Demand growth is slower than in previous years, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation after the National Day holiday, so PE prices may decline after the holiday [8] - For PP in October 2025, the planned maintenance loss is expected to increase by 0.2%. The 400,000 - ton/year PP plant of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation, and production is expected to increase by 3.54% month - on - month to 3.463 million tons. Although it is the peak demand season, supply still exceeds demand. After the National Day holiday, inventory consumption is still a concern, and PP prices are likely to remain weak [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the stock market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall upward - trending oscillation. The three major indices all closed higher on the monthly line. The ChiNext Index rose by over 12% this month, reaching a new high in more than three years, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by over 11%, hitting a new high in nearly four years. The domestic stock index futures market also oscillated upward as a whole. The market risk preference significantly recovered, and small - and medium - cap varieties outperformed the weighted contracts [5][25]. - From a macro perspective, the manufacturing PMI data in September continued to rise, indicating continuous improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was at the critical point, and the comprehensive PMI output index continued to be above the critical point, showing that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate [7][9][12]. - Looking forward to the future, the continuous improvement of the economic fundamentals provides strong support for the market. The continuous rise in manufacturing prosperity has enhanced investors' confidence. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position and focus on the expected policy orientation. The market is expected to still show structural characteristics, but technical adjustment pressure should be vigilant [26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: In September, the domestic stock index futures market oscillated upward. The IC showed strong performance. The monthly price increases of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 2.56% (115.4), 0.35% (10.4), 4.40% (307.0), and 0.71% (52.4) respectively [5]. - **Bond Futures**: In September, the 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures rose, while the 30 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell. The monthly price changes of the main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures were - 2.28% (- 2.66), 0.02% (0.025), 0.11% (0.115), and - 0.05% (- 0.048) respectively [6]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level continued to improve. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business volume was generally stable. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate [7][9][12]. c. Valuation Analysis - As of September 30, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 14.22 times, the percentile was 87.65%, and the PB was 1.48 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.75 times, the percentile was 88.63%, and the PB was 1.28 times. The PE of the CSI 500 Index was 35.23 times, the percentile was 84.31%, and the PB was 2.34 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.98 times, the percentile was 76.27%, and the PB was 2.54 times [13]. - As of September 30, the dividend yield of the Shanghai Composite Index was 2.48%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 16.6 times; the dividend yield of the Hang Seng Index was 2.24%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 12.3 times; the dividend yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was only 0.56%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 32 times; the dividend yield of the Nasdaq Index was 0.3%, corresponding to a price - earnings ratio of 44 times [26]. d. Other Data - As of September 30, 2025, the quantile of the current "total market value/GDP" in historical data was 88.27%, and the quantile in the latest 10 - year data was 88.47% - 92.26% [24]. e. Comprehensive Analysis - The stock index futures market showed an upward - trending oscillation pattern in September, with small - and medium - cap varieties outperforming the weighted contracts, and the market risk preference significantly recovered. The improvement in manufacturing prosperity, especially in key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods, provided fundamental support for the stock index, especially small - and medium - cap varieties. The improvement in the business climate of small enterprises also enhanced market confidence in the quality of economic recovery. The non - manufacturing business activity index was at the critical point, which was in line with the current market's structural market [25]. f. Operation Suggestions - **Unilateral**: Buy on dips, but beware of valuation risks. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to cross - variety spread opportunities and note style - switching signals. - **Options**: Use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the main contract of live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend and declined significantly overall. The current supply - side pressure in the live pig market remains unabated, and it may enter a "double - increase in supply and demand" pattern later. Although consumption is gradually boosted, it is difficult to offset the increase on the supply side, so the current supply - demand pattern of live pigs in the market is still loose. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the live pig market in October will be difficult to fundamentally improve, and pig prices may still be under pressure. The future live pig prices are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations. Currently, the valuation of live pig contracts is not high, and there is cost support below. There is an expectation of a rebound in the future, but the space is relatively limited, and the market may maintain low - level fluctuations [6][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In September 2025, the price of the main contract of live pig futures ranged between 12,220 - 13,710 yuan/ton. Overall, it showed a volatile downward trend and declined significantly in the month. As of the close on September 30, 2025, the main contract LH2511 fell by 1,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.85%, and closed at 12,355 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 25, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/kg from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current national average live pig price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of二元sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 25, 2025, the average price of piglets was 29.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.61 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 29, 2025, the prices of 20 - kg外三元piglets in Baoding, Hebei, Linyi, Shandong, and Kaifeng, Henan were 21.83 yuan/kg, 21.71 yuan/kg, and 21.64 yuan/kg respectively, all showing a significant decline from the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance Situation - **Global Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live pig supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, an increase of 13,929 thousand heads year - on - year. The global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, an increase of 505 thousand tons year - on - year [31]. - **China's Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live pig supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, an increase of 11,781 thousand heads year - on - year. China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, an increase of 592 thousand tons year - on - year [38]. Supply - Side Situation - **Live Pig Inventory Year - on - Year**: As of June 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Seasonally, the live pig inventory is at a relatively low level in history [44]. - **Reproductive Sow Inventory**: As of August 2025, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 heads, a decline of 0.1%; a year - on - year increase of 20,000 heads, an increase of 0.05%. Seasonally, the reproductive sow inventory is at a relatively low level in history [50]. - **Live Pig Slaughter**: In the second quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live pig slaughter was 366.19 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.24 million heads, an increase of 0.62%. Seasonally, the cumulative live pig slaughter is at a relatively high level in the past five years [52]. - **Pork Output**: As of June 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 30.2 million tons; a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, an increase of 1.31%. Seasonally, the national pork output in the second quarter of 2025 is at a relatively high level in the past five years [62]. - **China's Pork Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's monthly pork import was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. Seasonally, the monthly import volume is at a relatively low level in the past five years [69]. Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughter Volume of Designated Live Pig Slaughtering Enterprises in China**: In July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises in China was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million heads, an increase of 5.32%. Seasonally, the monthly slaughter volume is at a high level in the past five years [76]. - **Pork and Main Meat Output**: As of June 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 48.43 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 30.2 million tons, accounting for 62.36% [80]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous month; as of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of August 2025, the feed output was 29.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Seasonally, the feed output is at a high level in the past five years [83][89]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - **Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Breeding**: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [95]. - **Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Raising Live Pigs**: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 74.11 yuan/head. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [100]. - **Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding**: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from broiler chicken breeding was - 2.22 yuan/bird. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [106]. Pig - Grain Ratio As of September 26, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 5.44. According to the standards of the "Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Ensuring Stable Supply and Price of the Pork Market", since the pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 for nearly two consecutive months, the current live pig price is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the state may start purchasing and storing as the situation requires [111]. Recent Policies and Meetings in the Live Pig Industry - **Symposium on High - Quality Development of the Live Pig Industry**: On July 23, 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry in Beijing. The meeting emphasized high - quality industry development and put forward measures such as appropriately reducing reproductive sows, strictly controlling new production capacity, controlling body weight, and reducing secondary fattening. Affected by this, on July 23, 2025, the main domestic live pig futures contract 2509 once soared to 15,150 yuan/ton, hitting a new high for the year [112]. - **Expanded Meeting of the Executive Office of the Pig Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association**: On August 13, 2025, the Animal Husbandry Association held an expanded meeting of the executive office of the pig industry branch. The meeting conveyed the spirit of the "Symposium on High - Quality Development of the Live Pig Industry" and put forward goals such as reducing production, reducing weight, and stabilizing prices. After the meeting, leading enterprises in the industry actively responded to the production capacity regulation policy and stated that they would reduce the inventory of reproductive sows [113][114]. - **Symposium on Live Pig Production Capacity Regulation Enterprises**: On September 16, 2025, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on live pig production capacity regulation enterprises in Beijing. The meeting aimed to regulate the live pig slaughter supply for next year, involving content such as controlling the production capacity of reproductive sows, restricting "secondary fattening", and reducing the weight of live pig slaughter [115]. Fundamental Analysis - The national average live pig price in September 2025 decreased slightly from the previous month, the price of二元sows was basically the same as the previous month, and the price of piglets decreased significantly from the previous month. The supply pressure will remain high in the future. The actual speed of production capacity reduction is obviously lagging and lacks sustainability. The reproductive sow inventory is still close to the upper limit of the green range of 41 million heads, and the overall supply remains sufficient. The frozen - product inventory maintains a low - level. The terminal consumption is expected to improve. The breeding profit in September 2025 showed a continuous downward trend, and the live pig breeding has fully entered the loss area [116][118][119]. 后市 Outlook The main contract of live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend in September 2025 and declined significantly overall. The current supply - side pressure in the live pig market remains unabated, and it may enter a "double - increase in supply and demand" pattern later. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the live pig market in October will be difficult to fundamentally improve, and pig prices may still be under pressure. The future live pig prices are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations. In the short term, factors such as the seasonal consumption peak season and policy regulation may drive a phased rebound in pig prices, but the rebound space is relatively limited under supply pressure. In the long term, as the process of production capacity optimization progresses, the market supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. Currently, the overall valuation of live pig futures contracts is not high, and there is cost support below. There is an expectation of a rebound in the future, but the space is relatively limited, and the market may maintain low - level fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to changes in terminal consumption, weight reduction of live pigs, changes in the inventory of reproductive sows, live pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [120][121]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main live pig contract may maintain low - level fluctuations in October. The operation suggestions are: for unilateral trading, consider trying to go long at low prices; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, temporarily wait and see [122][123].

Report Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - In September, the rebar 2601 contract fell 3.24%. The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 390,000 tons, or 4.1%, compared with the previous period in late September, and increased by 1.54 million tons, or 20.6%, compared with the same period last year. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. During the National Day holiday, the spot prices were generally stable. In the short term, the resumption enthusiasm of EAF steel mills has increased, and the supply remains at a relatively high level. The market accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in October. [4][5] - It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3,000 yuan/ton for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically at low prices. [5] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented, but no specific price data is provided. [6] - **Spot Price**: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, also down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [11][13] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific content about basis and spread analysis is provided, only the data source is mentioned. [14] Important Market Information - On October 3, the Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's proposed tariff hikes and other trade - investment restrictions. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months. - At the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3387 trillion US dollars, up 16.5 billion US dollars or 0.5% from the end of August. - China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. - The global manufacturing PMI in September was 49.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the fourth batch this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones. - OPEC and eight major non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production increase measure in November, with a daily increase of 137,000 barrels of crude oil. - In the first three quarters, the total land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises was 727.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%, and the growth rate was 8.7 percentage points higher than that from January to August. [15][17] Supply - side Situation - No specific content about supply - side situation analysis is provided in the text, only some related data source information is mentioned. [22] Demand - side Situation - As of September 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing managers' index was 50.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. [26] Fundamental Analysis - The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. - The impact of steel mill maintenance on construction steel production may increase this week. There are 14 production lines under maintenance and 10 production lines resuming production. The impact on production due to production line maintenance is estimated to be 284,700 tons this week. - In late September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 390,000 tons, or 4.1%, compared with the previous period, and increased by 1.54 million tons, or 20.6%, compared with the same period last year. By region, most regions' inventories decreased, with East China having the largest reduction and North China having the largest decline. By product, except for hot - rolled coils, other product inventories decreased month - on - month, and except for hot - rolled coils, other product inventories increased year - on - year. [38] 后市展望 - Blast furnace steel mills rarely take the initiative to cut or stop production. Due to the decline in scrap steel prices, the profit of EAF steel mills has slightly recovered, and the short - term enthusiasm for resuming production of EAF steel mills has increased, so the supply remains at a relatively high level. The market accumulated inventory during the National Day holiday. After the holiday, the market is expected to fluctuate. [39] Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3,000 yuan/ton and try to go long with a light position. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Options**: Opportunistically sell the deep out - of - the - money put option strategy for rb2601. [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an upward trend, with a price range of about 79,390 yuan/ton to 83,820 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,843 - 10,485 US dollars/ton [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Uncertainty in Fed Rate Cuts - There is a continuous debate within the Fed regarding the magnitude and speed of interest rate adjustments. Among 19 Fed officials, 10 think "there will be two or more rate cuts this year", while the other 9 believe there will be one more rate cut or even no more cuts. The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10][11][13]. 2.2 Year - on - Year Growth in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above the National Scale - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.7% [16][17]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Continuous and Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 28, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.02 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 40.3 US dollars/kiloton [20]. 3.2 Continuous Narrowing of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 26, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 82,510 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 75,050 yuan/ton, with a price difference of - 45 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [27]. 5. Inventory Side - As of September 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,034 tons, a decrease of 3,745 tons from the previous week. As of September 29, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6.72%. The COMEX copper inventory was 323,207 tons, an increase of 923 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous week [32]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese economic policies and US policies have a high impact, with the key points being the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits and the uncertainty of the Fed's continued rate cuts. Supply factors such as the low level of refined copper processing fees and the year - on - year growth of copper production also have an impact, as do demand factors like the accelerated growth of power grid investment and the growth of copper product output. The continuous and significant accumulation of COMEX copper inventory also affects prices [38]. 6.2 Outlook - Given the macro - environment, supply, demand, and inventory situations, the copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the glass market achieved a phased recovery supported by sentiment and rigid demand, with the price center shifting upwards. However, considering factors such as unresolved supply pressure, high mid - stream social inventory, and tight downstream capital, the price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the subsequent trend is expected to be mainly volatile consolidation [7][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In September, the price of the glass main contract SA2601 ranged from 1,118 to 1,282 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 30, 2025, the glass futures main contract FG2601 rose 37 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 3.15%, closing at 1,210 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Key Data Trends - In September, the national average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.1%. The average daily output was 160,300 tons, an increase of 760 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.48%. The average capacity utilization rate was 80.16%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous period [6]. - In September, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises showed a continuous downward trend. By the end of the month, the total inventory was 59.3548 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2116 million heavy boxes, a decline of 5.13%; a year - on - year decrease of 13.5236 million heavy boxes, a decline of 18.56% [6]. 3.3 Spot Price Trends - In September, the float glass market was weak first and then strong. The national average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.1%. Different regions had different price trends, with some showing small declines and some showing increases [8]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - In September, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash both declined, with a larger decline in soda ash profits, mainly due to the fall in soda ash spot prices and the rise in coal prices, leading to a decrease in industry profits [13]. - In September, the prices of float glass with different fuels generally rose, but the prices of coal and petroleum coke in fuels also increased significantly, resulting in an increase in the cost and a decrease in the profit of glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuels. The price of pipeline natural gas was relatively stable, and the loss of natural - gas glass decreased [14]. 3.5 Supply - Side Situation - In September, although the monthly output of float glass decreased, the average daily output increased, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The average daily output was 160,300 tons, an increase of 760 tons from the previous period, a rise of 0.48%. The average capacity utilization rate was 80.16%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous period [18]. - In September, the overhaul loss of float glass was 1.1906 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63,300 tons, a decline of 5.05%, and a year - on - year increase of 107,800 tons, an increase of 9.95%. From January to September, the cumulative overhaul loss was 11.601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9992 million tons, an increase of 34.87% [23]. 3.6 Demand - Side Situation - In September, the supply - demand balance showed a pattern of supply less than demand, with a negative supply - demand difference, providing relatively strong support for the market. The demand increment within the month was general, mainly manifested as rigid demand procurement by downstream customers and procurement and stockpiling by spot - futures traders and dealers driven by market sentiment [26]. 3.7 Inventory - Side Situation - In September, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises showed a continuous downward trend. By the end of the month, the total inventory was 59.3548 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2116 million heavy boxes, a decline of 5.13%; a year - on - year decrease of 13.5236 million heavy boxes, a decline of 18.56% [29]. 3.8 Import - Export Data - In August, the import volume of float glass was 23,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,400 tons, a decline of 9.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 8,900 tons, an increase of 60.58%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 161,100 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 8.59% [35]. - In August, the export volume of float glass was 110,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons, an increase of 14.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,400 tons, an increase of 119.65%. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 655,800 tons, an increase of 359,100 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 120.99% [37]. 3.9 Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In September, the float glass market showed an operating characteristic of "first suppressing then rising, and intensifying supply - demand game". The market was relatively dull in the first half - month and became more active in the second half - month [41]. - In terms of supply - demand structure, the supply side has potential pressure, the demand side has limited growth, and the cost side has significant differences in profit among different processes [41]. - The follow - up price trend is expected to be mainly volatile consolidation [42]. - Operation suggestions: For single - side trading, consider lightly laying out long positions at low prices, but be aware of the supply pressure and high inventory limiting the upside space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying put options to hedge the risk of price corrections [43].

研究报告 甲醇周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 基本面改善有限，甲醇或延续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 在供需改善带动甲醇港口实质性去库前，甲醇期货价格或区 间震荡，可考虑卖出宽跨式策略。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，甲醇基本面改善有限，甲醇期货震荡整理，至周五下 午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2356 元/吨，较前一周下跌 0.08%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量上升，供给端 仍缺乏持续性支撑。甲醇下游需求延续稳中偏好的态势，下游烯 烃开工率提升较为明显。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存 下降，企业待发订单量上 ...