Hua Long Qi Huo

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螺纹周报:“反内卷”主逻辑驱动,钢价震荡偏强-20250714
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:48
Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is ★★ [7] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the 2510 contract for rebar rose 1.65%. Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][6][37][38] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the rebar futures main contract daily K-line chart [8][10] - **Spot Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [16][18] Important Market Information - On July 11, 2025, relevant departments released a notice to add green power consumption ratios for the steel, cement, and polysilicon industries and new data centers at national hub nodes in 2025 [19] Supply - Side Situation - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [20][23] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [27] Fundamental Analysis - On July 11, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee believed that the coke market should raise prices as soon as possible. The coke price in Xingtai market is planned to be increased, with different price increases for different types of coke, and the adjusted price will be implemented from 0:00 on July 14 [36] 后市展望 - Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the improvement of the upstream coking coal and coke fundamentals drives the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly [37] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [38]
玉米周报:拍卖降温、替代增量,玉米市场步入弱平衡-20250714
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:48
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current corn price has limited upside and downside potential, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while closely monitoring recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic supply - demand changes [8][75][76]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the main continuous contract of corn futures oscillated weakly. As of last Friday's close, it was reported at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, with a trading volume of 509,176 lots and an open interest of 1,030,900 lots [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the Northeast, North China, and sales regions continued to be weak. In the Northeast, the terminal purchase price generally decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; in North China, the deep - processing enterprise purchase price decreased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton; in the sales regions, the port quotation was under pressure, and the north - south price difference narrowed [7][18][19]. 3.2. Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Planting Area and Yield**: In recent years, the domestic corn planting area has remained above 38 million hectares. It is expected that in 2025, the national corn planting area will be 40.47 million hectares, a decrease of 110,000 hectares from 2024, and the yield will be 276.59 million tons, an increase of 5.09 million tons from 2024, an increase of 1.87% [25][32]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: Last week, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 4.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% and a year - on - year increase of 3.55%. The inventory increase was concentrated in the Northeast [36]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Startup**: The recent startup rate of deep - processing enterprises has been oscillating at a low level. This week, the startup rate in the Northeast region may further drop below 50% [41]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Consumption**: From July 3rd to July 9th, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons [45]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10th, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [48]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Profit**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month, but was still in the negative range [53]. 3.3. Analysis of Related Products - **Corn Starch**: As of July 10th, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The national average price of corn starch was 2,835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The market price continued to be weak [60]. - **Wheat**: As of July 10th, the national average price of corn was 2,421 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat was 2,440 yuan/ton. The wheat price continued to decline last week [67]. - **Sorghum**: As of July 10th, the price of imported sorghum at Nantong Port was 20 yuan/ton lower than that of corn. The price of imported sorghum remained stagnant, and the market transaction was light [70]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the national average price of live pig slaughter was 14.96 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remained weak [74].
橡胶周报:宏观提振供需改善,胶价或将震荡偏强-20250714
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:48
研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观提振供需改善,胶价或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号:F0305828 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011566 电话:0931-8894545 邮箱:2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 【行情复盘】 研究员:张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13900-14185 元/吨 之间运行,上周期货价格震荡上行,总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日上周五下午收盘,天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14360 元/吨,当周上涨 355 点,涨幅 2.53%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡上行,总体小幅 上涨。 研究报告 报告日期:2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 展望后市,从宏观面来看,关税风云再起,影响全球市场; 我国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨,6 月 PPI 环比下降。从基本面来看,供 给方面,近期主产区受天气扰动原料供应短缺支撑胶价,但是 后期存在较强的供应上量预期。需求方面,上周轮胎企业开工 率均有回升 ...
纯碱周报:纯碱供需矛盾,市场弱势持续-20250714
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:42
研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供需矛盾 市场弱势持续 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号:F3076451 投资咨询资格证号:Z0019257 电话:15117218912 邮箱:houfan@qq.com 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格: 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1244-1163 元/吨之间运行, 价格保持低位震荡。 研究员:侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日下午收盘,当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 43 元/吨,周度跌涨 3.66%,报收 1217 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率环比持平,截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日,国内纯碱产量 70.90 万吨,环比持平。其中,轻质碱产量 30.88 万吨,环比减少 0.43 万吨。重质碱产量 40.02 万吨,环比 增加 0.43 万吨。 报告日期:2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存小幅增长,截止到 2025 年 7 月 10 日,国 内纯碱厂家总库存 186.34 万吨,较上周一增加 1.53 万吨,涨幅 ...
市场平静,油脂震荡整理
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:42
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, domestic oil prices fluctuated and consolidated. The palm oil in the producing areas is still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, but the production in Malaysia decreased slightly in June, slowing down the inventory - building speed and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The inventory of soybean oil is building up rapidly with average consumption and is expected to continue to increase. Rapeseed oil has a high current inventory, but the future supply decline is relatively clear and will enter the de - stocking cycle. Overall, the domestic oil inventory level still has room to rise. As oils are in the off - season of consumption and the downstream market mainly replenishes goods based on rigid demand, it is expected that the domestic oil futures prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, oil futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The soybean oil Y2509 contract rose 0.53% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2509 contract rose 2.48% to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2509 contract fell 1.75% to close at 9,439 yuan/ton [5][27]. - In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.692 million tons, exports were 1.2594 million tons, and inventory was 2.03 million tons. Exports were significantly lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.78% [6][27]. - For the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean yield per acre remained unchanged at 52.5 bushels. US soybean crushing was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels due to the increased demand for soybean oil in the bio - fuel industry. US soybean exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels due to domestic demand growth and strong exports from Argentina and Ukraine. The US soybean ending inventory was raised by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US soybeans fell 3.89% this week [7][28]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,190 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 80,000 tons to 1.141 million tons. On July 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 524,000 tons [14]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [17]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 204 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 141 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The content in this part is basically the same as the abstract and the core view, emphasizing the price trends of different oils, the production, export, and inventory situations of palm oil in Malaysia, and the adjustments to US soybean production, crushing, exports, and ending inventory. It also reiterates the future trends of domestic oil inventories and price expectations [27][28].
A股市场上周震荡走强
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].
供给预增需求弱势,胶价或将震荡偏弱
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 05:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of rubber prices has returned to fundamentals with reduced influence from external geopolitical conflicts. The current rubber supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and the futures price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][84][85] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a slight decline overall. As of July 4, 2025, it closed at 14,005 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.28% for the week [14] - **Spot Price**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 19,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,250 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][21] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly shrank. As of July 4, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber slightly declined last week, while the overseas price remained flat [24][27] Important Market Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: US non - farm payrolls in June significantly exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of a July interest rate cut. China's Caixin Services PMI in June was below expectations, but the China Logistics Prosperity Index continued to rise. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June reached its highest level since August 2022 [8][31] - **Automobile Market**: In June, China's heavy - truck sales recovered, and new energy vehicle sales increased. The 1 - 5 month cumulative export of Chinese tires increased slightly year - on - year. The inventory of tire enterprises was high, and the start - up rate decreased last week [33][35][53] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [39][44][48] Demand - side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the start - up rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.41%, down 7.64% from the previous week; the start - up rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.75%, down 1.89% from the previous week. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month [53][57][60] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,110 tons to 18,885 tons. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [81] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [82] - **Demand**: Last week, the start - up rate of tire enterprises decreased, downstream factories purchased on demand, and tire inventory reduction was slow. In June, heavy - truck sales recovered, and from January to May, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while China's social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [82] 后市展望 - The price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract fluctuated in a range last week, rising after falling and showing a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, the rubber supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigations, and Sino - US tariff changes [84] Operation Strategy - The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [85]
甲醇周报:基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇或偏弱震荡-20250707
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 03:21
Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak. After the geopolitical tension eases, methanol returns to its fundamentals and is likely to continue its weak trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10][35]. Summary by Section 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price was 2,409 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The spot price of methanol in the port market mostly declined, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,450 - 2,840 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a 3.45% drop from the previous week. Overall, the loss of production due to maintenance and reduction was greater than the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products decreased. The average weekly operation rate of the olefin industry continued to decline, with the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 76.05%, a 4.08 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde also decreased [17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a 3.14% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.23% increase. The port sample inventory was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.48% increase [22][25]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples weakened. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production narrowed, while the loss of natural - gas - based production slightly increased [28]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, there are more methanol plant overhauls than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be around 1.9162 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.03%, a decrease from last week [33]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's开工率 will continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde and chlorides is expected to decrease [34]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The port inventory is expected to change little [34][35].
铅周报:沪铅或以震荡趋势运行-20250707
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 03:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][4][34] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2508 of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from around 17,090 yuan/ton to about 17,315 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of the LME lead futures contract was running around 2,034 - 2,073 US dollars/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11] 2. Spot Analysis - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,075 yuan/ton, 17,080 yuan/ton, and 17,085 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 4, 2025, the premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 900 yuan/metal ton, 800 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively [20] - As of May 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at an average level compared with the past five years [20] 4. Inventory Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the refined lead inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons from the previous week [26] - As of July 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.34% [26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The US non - farm payrolls report for June was unexpectedly much stronger than expected. The Fed may adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the Fed's interest rate cut process may be postponed [3][33] - The lead discount has slightly widened, and the lead processing fee is still in the bottom area [3][33] - Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][33] - The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][33]
纯碱周报:纯碱供需矛盾,市场弱势持续-20250707
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 03:20
研究报告 纯碱周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号:F3076451 投资咨询资格证号:Z0019257 电话:15117218912 邮箱:houfan@qq.com 纯碱供需矛盾 市场弱势持续 华龙期货投资咨询部 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格: 上周纯碱主力合约 SA2509 价格在 1219-1158 元/吨之间运 行,价格保持低位震荡。 研究员:侯帆 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日下午收盘,当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 18 元/吨,周度跌幅 1.51%,报收 1174 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率继续回落,截止到 2025 年 7 月 3 日,国内纯碱产量 70.90 万吨,环比下跌 0.77 万吨,跌幅 1.09%。 其中,轻质碱产量 31.31 万吨,环比减少 1.15 万吨。重质碱产量 39.59 万吨,环比增加 0.38 万吨。 报告日期:2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存持续增长,截止到 2025 年 7 月 3 日,国 内纯碱厂家总库存 ...