1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The short - term market is expected to remain range - bound. The report suggests temporarily observing the market, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips [8][92][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged between 15,680 - 16,390 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating and upward - trending pattern with a significant overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of January 9, 2026, the main contract closed at 16,030 yuan/ton, up 425 points or 2.72% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [20]. - As of January 9, 2026, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to the previous week. As of January 9, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [31]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical events include the US "blitz" on Venezuela and related international responses. The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation was completely dashed. The US economic data showed mixed results, with some indicators improving and others weakening. China's economic data, such as CPI and PPI, showed certain trends, and the auto market had various sales data and promotional activities [32][35][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's and India's increased slightly, Vietnam's and China's increased slightly. The total production in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [42]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the cumulative production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [45][48]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [53]. Demand - side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week [57]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the monthly sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2% [61][64]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65.38% and a month - on - month increase of 6.64% [70]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [73][78]. Inventory - side Situation - As of January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from the previous week. - As of January 4, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 815,000 tons, an increase of 3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. - As of January 4, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8% [88]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: China's natural rubber domestic production area ended its 2025 tapping season, while Southeast Asian main production areas were in the peak tapping season. Due to recent low temperatures in northeastern Thailand and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, overseas raw material prices remained high. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly. Currently in the seasonal consumption off - season, enterprises' overall shipment pace was slow, and finished - product inventories increased. In the terminal auto market, although December 2025 passenger car sales decreased year - on - year, the cumulative sales for the year increased slightly. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires from January to November 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [89]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with an accelerating inventory - building speed [90]. 后市展望 - The macro - situation has limited impact on natural rubber prices due to the US - Venezuela conflict. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and other factors affect the macro - sentiment. From the fundamental perspective, the supply side has high - priced overseas raw materials due to weather, the demand side is in a seasonal off - season with some short - term fluctuations in enterprise operating rates, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the natural rubber market is in a state of multi - empty game, and the short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Key factors to be followed include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather in rubber - producing areas, inventory - building, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal demand changes [91][92]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - sided trading, temporarily observe, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily observe [93][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's rise in the soda ash market was more of a rebound driven by sentiment and funds, lacking solid demand support. With increasing supply and rapid inventory accumulation, the upside for prices is severely restricted. The market has entered a phase of intense confrontation between "weak reality" and "expectations," and it is expected to continue the pattern of high - level oscillations, waiting for new drivers [8][36][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Among them, light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, an increase of 4.43% from the previous period. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a week - on - week increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.24% [11] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,572,700 tons, a 4.26% increase from Monday and an 11.67% increase from the previous Wednesday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 101,900 tons or 6.93%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons [14] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [15] (4) Profit Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit (per two - ton) of the co - production method for soda ash in China was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The profit decreased slightly due to the increase in the cost side and the weak and stable soda ash market [20] - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The profit improved because the soda ash price rebounded after a decline [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national floating glass was 150,100 tons, a 0.96% decrease compared to the 1st. The weekly output from January 2 - 8, 2026, was 1,059,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [27] - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 55,518,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1,348,000 weight boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [31] 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 1.31% week - on - week, while the price of well - mine salt in East China remained unchanged. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased or remained stable, except for heavy soda ash in the Northwest, which increased by 2.33%. The price of floating glass increased by 1.03% week - on - week, while the price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass decreased by 4.35%. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.35%, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% [35] 4. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contract of soda ash futures showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the weekly line closing slightly positive. The market sentiment gradually returned to rationality, and there was a deep confrontation between "short - term sentiment game" and "accumulated fundamental pressure" [36] - The market showed a typical "strong supply and weak demand" characteristic. The supply - side pressure increased sharply, the inventory accumulated significantly, and the enterprise shipment volume and shipment rate decreased. However, due to previous losses and macro - level optimistic expectations, the price had a psychological bottom support, resulting in volatile prices [36] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations for single - side trading, not to conduct arbitrage, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [38]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the corn futures market first declined and then rebounded. Policy - driven supply supplements and alternative grain sources exerted downward pressure, while factors like over - half of the national corn sales progress (faster than last year), farmers' reluctance to sell, low inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand provided bottom - up support. In the short term, the market may fluctuate with an upward bias. For trading strategies, due to intensified long - short competition in the market, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and there are no recommended arbitrage or option strategies [9][78][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - The domestic corn futures main contract C2603 first declined slightly at the beginning of the week and then rebounded continuously from Wednesday. As of last Friday's close, it was reported at 2,263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The CBOT corn futures main contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 445.25 cents per bushel last week, down 0.17% [6][15][20] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - The national average corn price last week was 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. In the Northeast production area, prices were basically stable. In the North China production area, prices were stable with slight adjustments by some deep - processing enterprises. In the sales areas and ports, prices had narrow adjustments [8][24][25] 3.1.3. Basis - As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn against the main contract was 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [29] 3.2. Review of Relevant Information Last Week - Vietnam will mandate the promotion of E10 in 2026, which may drive ethanol and corn imports. There were multiple corn bidding results from China National Grain Reserves Corporation, showing different purchase and sales rates. U.S. corn export data showed changes in shipment and net sales volume. Information on weather, crop yields, and export volumes from various countries such as India, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina was also provided [30][31][32] 3.3. Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern 3.3.1. Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [45] 3.3.2. Deep - processing Enterprises' Inventory - As of January 7, the total corn inventory of national deep - processing enterprises was 3.54 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.47% [49] 3.3.3. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - From January 1 to January 7, 2026, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.3817 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 million tons. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had varying consumption changes [53][55] 3.3.4. Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation - From January 1 to January 7, 2026, the corn processing volume, starch output, and startup rate of corn starch enterprises all decreased week on week. The startup rate was 59.37%, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease [59] 3.3.5. Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation - Recently, by - product prices have been low. Corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang and Jilin are in deep losses. Profits in different regions have different changes compared with the previous week [65] 3.3.6. Import and Export Situation - In November 2025, China imported 560,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons. From January to November 2025, China imported 1.85 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.47 million tons [68] 3.4. Related Products Situation 3.4.1. Corn Starch - Last week, the national average corn starch price was 2,692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous week. Prices in different regions had different changes [72] 3.4.2. Live Pigs - Last week, the national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% [77]

研究报告 铁矿周报 套利：观望 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 3.17%。 基本面：Mysteel 调研，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79.31%，环比增 加 0.37%，同比增加 2.13%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 86.04%，环比增加 0.78%， 同比增加 1.80%；钢厂盈利率 37.66%，环比减少 0.44%，同比减少 12.99%； 日均铁水产量 229.5 万吨，环比增加 2.07 万吨。计全国 45 个港口进口铁矿 库存总量 16275.26 万吨，环比增加 304.37 万吨；日均疏港量 323.27 万吨， 环比下降 1.94 万吨。 后市展望：黑色板块整体市场情绪好转，叠加钢厂原料补库需求支撑， 铁矿震荡偏强。 单边： ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Although the overall supply is relatively abundant and demand changes are limited, the methanol futures market may operate strongly due to expected supply reduction and downstream stocking expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - **Futures**: Last week, influenced by improved expectations, methanol futures showed a strong oscillation. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,160 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous week [5][11]. - **Spot**: Last week, the port methanol price was still strong, while the inland methanol price was weak, showing a regional differentiation trend. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,120 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,090 - 2,130 yuan/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, domestic methanol production continued to rise as more plants resumed production than were under maintenance. The supply - side support remained weak [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream olefin operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall downstream demand was stable but weak. The demand in the inland area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises rose, and the volume of pending orders decreased. The port methanol inventory increased significantly, with a large increase in Jiangsu [7][19][21]. - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices stopped falling, while methanol prices were still weak, and the profits of coal - to - methanol enterprises deteriorated again [7][24]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: Around New Year's Day, methanol supply will remain relatively abundant. In the future, domestic and foreign methanol maintenance may increase, imports may decline, and the supply is expected to decrease [8]. - **Demand**: The change in demand is limited. Downstream enterprises have stocking expectations, and macro - policies may be introduced [8]. - **Market Trend**: The spot market may be narrowly sorted, while the futures market may operate strongly [8]. 3.4 Operation Strategy Considering the positive expectations, methanol futures may operate strongly, and investors can consider selling put options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 93,390 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 99,730 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From December 25th to 26th, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized ten key tasks for 2026, including cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect 2 rate cuts, with the policy rate dropping to 3.00% - 3.25%. [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Electrolytic Copper Production - As of November 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of December 25, 2025, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 44 dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 cents/pound. [16] 3.3.2 Copper Product Production - As of November 2025, monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 111,703 tons, an increase of 15,898 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, 2025, LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 29.34%. [26] 3.4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was 96,500 tons (a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week), the Guangdong area inventory was 23,900 tons, and the Wuxi area inventory was 40,100 tons. [26] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Global refined copper supply and demand are basically balanced. Electrolytic copper production is growing rapidly month - on - month and still has a high year - on - year growth. Chinese copper smelter processing fees are slightly decreasing. The price difference between refined and scrap copper is expanding rapidly. Copper product production remains at a high level. Shanghai copper inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly. [35] 3.6 Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the corn futures price was stable first and then rose, with the futures market rebounding on Friday, while the spot price in the production area remained stable with narrow fluctuations. The current grain - selling progress in the production area is faster than the same period last year, and the increased auction of imported corn effectively supplements the grain supply. Although the port inventory has rebounded, the growth rate has slowed down. Meanwhile, CGSGB has been continuously supporting the market, with a procurement volume of 450,000 tons last week and the成交 rate soaring to 67.8%. Some warehouses have stopped purchasing, and the market's expectation of a subsequent tightening of corn supply is gradually rising, providing support for the market rebound. In the short term, the corn price may continue to fluctuate strongly, but the increasing expectation of wheat auctions may suppress the corn price [7][72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Price Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the domestic corn futures price was stable first and then rose, with the main contract C2603 closing at 2,230 yuan/ton at the night - session close on Friday, up 1%; C2605 closed at 2,265 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The CBOT corn futures main contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 449.50 cents per bushel at the end of last week, down 0.33% [5][13][17]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 25, the national weekly average price of corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price center continued to move up over the weekend. The corn price in the Northeast production area was relatively stable, with the price of second - class corn in Harbin and Changchun remaining the same as the previous week. The corn price in the North China production area was stable, and the purchase price of Shouguang Jinyu Corn in Shandong was the same as the previous week. The corn price in the sales area and ports was stable first and then rose, with the self - pick - up price of second - class corn at Shekou Port remaining the same as the previous week, and the flat - hatch price of second - class corn at Bayuquan Port up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][23]. - **Basis**: As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - main contract was 78 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [26]. 3.2. Last Week's Related Information Review - Ukraine had harvested 10.895 million hectares of grains (including legumes) as of December 18, accounting for 94% of the planned harvest area, with a yield of 56.576 million tons and an average yield of 5.19 tons per hectare. - The expected total output of Brazilian corn in the 2025/26 season is 142.875 million tons, lower than the previous forecast but higher than that in the 2024/25 season. - The US Department of Agriculture will not issue more agricultural aid beyond the announced $12 billion plan. - Russia's total output of grains and legumes in 2025 will reach 137 million tons (net weight), with the wheat output expected to reach 9 million tons. - As of December 17, the planting area of Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season accounted for 69.5% of the total expected area, up from 59.2% a week ago. - Argentina exported 1,584,095.64 tons of corn in November. - CGSGB's corn procurement in various regions had different transaction rates last week. - Russia's agricultural organizations sold 62.7 million tons of grains from January to November 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%. - From December 24 to 30, 2025, Russia's corn benchmark price was $205.5 per ton, and the export tariff was 0 rubles per ton. - The EU's agricultural product trade surplus in October 2025 increased significantly to 6.4 billion euros, a month - on - month increase of 18% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. - As of December 22, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 14.26 million tons, a 32.9% decrease from the same period last year. - As of December 19, the planting of Brazil's first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 82.0% completed. - Russia's grain exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 53 - 55 million tons, the same as the five - year average. - ComBio expects its revenue to triple in the next five years. - The estimated output of Brazilian and Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, higher than the USDA's forecast. - Brazil exported 4.426 million tons of corn from December 1 - 19. - As of December 23, the planting progress of Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season was 77.7%. - Kazakhstan exported 3.9 million tons of grains from September to December 19, 2025, higher than the same period last year. - From February 15 to June 30, 2026, Russia's export tariff rate quota for wheat, mixed wheat, barley, and corn is 20 million tons, and the rye export quota is 0 tons. - There will be scattered showers in Brazil's major corn - producing areas in the future. - As of December 22, Ukraine's actual wheat, corn, and sunflower oil exports were far lower than the contract volume. - Russia exported 3.389 million tons of grains from December 1 - 20, a year - on - year increase of 14%. - As of December 24, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 14.5 million tons, a 31.8% decrease from the same period last year. - As of December 17, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.91 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 season. - In the 2025/26 season, the EU's corn imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, with the shares of the US and Brazil increasing significantly and the share of Ukraine decreasing significantly [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][35]. 3.3. Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of December 25, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 29.88 days, down 0.1 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. The inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly this period, and most feed enterprises maintained rolling replenishment [39]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory**: As of December 24, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 3.378 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.66% [43]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption**: From December 18 to 24, 2025, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.397 million tons of corn, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous week. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [49]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation**: From December 18 to 24, 2025, the corn processing volume, starch output, and startup rate of corn starch enterprises all increased month - on - month. The total corn processing volume of national major corn starch processing enterprises was 635,300 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week; the corn starch output was 330,800 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the startup rate was 60.46%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous week [54]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation**: Recently, the profits of corn deep - processing enterprises have been continuously shrinking. As of last Friday, the hedging profit of corn starch by - products in Jilin was - 90 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 3 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was 1 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [58]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In November 2025, China imported 560,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons, an increase of 87.5%. From January to November 2025, China imported 1.85 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.47 million tons, a decrease of 86.1% [62]. 3.4. Related Products Situation - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,711 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The mainstream transaction prices in different regions had different changes [67]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price first fell and then rose. The national average pig slaughter price was 11.44 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67% [71]. 3.5. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Currently, the market is dominated by capital sentiment, and the long - short game has intensified. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [8][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply-demand pattern of the soda ash market remains loose, and the inventory reduction this week is considered a phased repair. Without strong and continuous demand, prices are unlikely to rise in a trending manner. It is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to adopt an oscillatory approach, be bearish in the medium term, and pay attention to shorting opportunities on price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, consider selling out-of-the-money call options to construct a covered strategy [8][36][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2605 ranged from 1157 to 1207 yuan/ton, showing a recovery. As of December 26, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2605 rose 24 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.04%, closing at 1200 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic soda ash production this week was 711,800 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.65%, down 1.09% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia-alkali capacity utilization rate was 83.32%, a decrease of 5.90%; the co-production capacity utilization rate was 73.85%, an increase of 0.79%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 85.80%, a decrease of 1.68% [7][9][11] 3.2.2 Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from Monday, a decline of 4.13%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 60,800 tons, a decline of 4.06%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 16,400 tons, a decline of 1.13% [7][14] 3.2.3 Shipment - As of December 25, the weekly soda ash shipment volume of Chinese enterprises was 77,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.85%; the overall soda ash shipment rate was 108.54%, a month-on-month increase of 9.23 percentage points [17] 3.2.4 Profit - As of December 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double tons) of Chinese soda ash produced by the combined soda process was -20.50 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 50%. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash produced by the ammonia-alkali process was -57.40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 13.94% [20][25] 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation 3.3.1 Float Glass Industry Output - As of December 25, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the 18th. The weekly output of national float glass from December 19 - 25, 2025 was 1.084 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.06% [27] 3.3.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month-on-month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.11%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [30] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the fundamentals of the soda ash market were mixed. The weekly data generally indicated marginal improvement, with a decline in production and capacity utilization on the supply side and a significant decline in the total inventory of manufacturers. However, the overall supply-demand pattern remained loose. The futures market sentiment was greatly affected by the macro and commodity market atmosphere, and the spot market trading was dull. Without strong and continuous demand, prices are expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term [36] 3.5 Operational Suggestions - Unilateral: Adopt an oscillatory approach, be bearish in the medium term. In the short term, conduct range operations and pay attention to shorting opportunities on price rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling out-of-the-money call options to construct a covered strategy [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 0.77%. Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month-on-month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short-term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Futures Price", "Spread Analysis (Basis in dry tons)", and "Position Analysis (Net Position Analysis of Futures Seats)" are given [6][7] 3.2 Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China will strengthen macro - prudential management of real estate finance and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure of raw material industries such as steel and petrochemicals, and continuing to regulate crude steel production. The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged. The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves of coal - to - oil and gas [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,054 tons, a decrease of 77 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $101.49 per ton, an increase of $0.94 per ton from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 6,184.9 tons, a decrease of 499.3 tons from the previous month, and Brazil's was 3,096.3 tons, an increase of 170.8 tons from the first half of the month [17][19] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Daily Average Hot Metal Output of 247 Steel Mills", "Profit Margin of 247 Steel Mills", and "Shanghai Terminal Rebar and Wire Rod Purchases" are given [20][26] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61%. The steel mill profit margin was 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%. The daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 15,858.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 346.03 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons. At 47 ports, the total inventory was 16,619.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [29][30] 3.6 Future Outlook - Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short - term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [5][31] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Be cautious and take short positions lightly when the price is high. If the price stands firm at the important resistance level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. Reduce positions before the holiday to avoid risks during the holiday. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term due to a combination of factors including a warm macro - market sentiment, a weakening geopolitical support for rubber prices, good but weakening terminal consumption, and increasing seasonal inventory accumulation [8][9][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures (RU2605) oscillated upward, with the price ranging from 15,130 to 15,890 yuan/ton. As of December 26, 2025, it closed at 15,780 yuan/ton, up 590 points or 3.88% for the week [6][15]. (2) Spot Price - As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,130 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. (3) Basis and Spread - As of December 26, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai - Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main contract futures price was - 480 yuan/ton, an expansion of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][30]. 2. Important Market Information - The US economic situation shows mixed signals, with strong Q3 GDP growth but a decline in consumer confidence. China's economic policies focus on market construction and industry regulation, and the industrial economy shows steady progress with some fluctuations in corporate profits. The automobile industry has growth in production and sales, especially in the new - energy vehicle segment, and the heavy - truck market has strong performance due to policy support [31][33][34]. 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries decreased by 1.95 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 77.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the cumulative output was 816.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China increased by 8.6% month - on - month [41][44][47]. 4. Demand - Side Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of November 30, 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings decreased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [56][60][63]. 5. Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber futures inventory increased by 6,770 tons week - on - week. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased continuously, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber production is in the peak season, with an expected increase in raw material supply in overseas main - producing areas. The domestic production is decreasing as the domestic areas stop tapping. The import volume of rubber in China increased year - on - year. The cease - fire between Thailand and Cambodia weakens the geopolitical support for rubber prices. - Demand: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. The finished - product inventory is rising, and the all - steel tire price is under pressure. The automobile production and sales increased in November 2025, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires increased slightly in the first 11 months of 2025. The demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken as the weather gets colder. - Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and the total inventory in Qingdao all increased last week [85][86]. 7.后市展望 - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated upward last week. In the future, the macro - market sentiment is warm, which supports the rubber price. However, on the fundamental side, the supply is expected to be loose, the geopolitical support for rubber prices weakens, the terminal consumption is good but may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Therefore, the market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [87][88]. 8. Views and Operating Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. - Operating strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider range trading; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long 01 and short 05 positive spread opportunity; for options, wait and see [89][90].