研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 地缘紧张再次升级，甲醇或偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 【基本面】 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 上周，国内甲醇生产企业复产多于检修，国内甲醇供给小 幅增加。需求方面，上周甲醇下游产能利用率总体平稳，需求 稳中偏好。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升，反映 下游需求不强。企业待发订单增加，反映下游多逢低采购。由 于进口及内贸船只持续到货，港口甲醇库存同样上升。利润方 面，由于甲醇价格上涨，甲醇生产企业利润整体回暖。综合来 看，上周甲醇基本面未有实质性改善。 【后市展望】 本周甲醇生产企业延续复产多于检修，供给或继续增加。 需求端，由于烯烃行业开工维持高位，甲醇下游总体稳中偏好。 库存方面，由于本周外轮到港预计减量，本周甲醇港口库存或 将下降，由于下游需求有所好转，预计本周甲醇企业库存或下 降。 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Looking ahead, there are uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The supply side of rubber is supported to some extent by weather, but the demand side has not improved significantly, and there is potential supply pressure in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Key factors to focus on include geopolitical impacts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of zero - tariff policies, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][90] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2509 ranged from 13,565 to 14,000 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of June 13, 2025, it was reported at 13,875 yuan/ton, up 225 points or 1.65% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,310 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two shrank slightly. As of June 13, 2025, the basis was maintained at 25 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton less than last week [27] Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On June 13, local time, the "Israel - Iran conflict" broke out, causing a shock in the global market. Crude oil prices soared by more than 13% and then declined, safe - haven assets such as gold rose significantly, and global stock markets fell collectively [34] - US Economic Data: In May, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year; the initial jobless claims last week were 248,000, the highest since October 5, 2024 [35][36] - Global Economic Outlook: The World Bank lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, and Fitch adjusted the global sovereign rating outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" [36][37] - Sino - US Economic and Trade: From June 9 to 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, achieving new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [37] - China's Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to May, the export of China's equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [38] - China's Automobile Market: In May, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. The export of automobiles in May was 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [39][40] Supply - Side Situation - As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month; the production in China's main producing area increased significantly; the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India's main producing areas decreased slightly compared with the previous month; the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased significantly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous month [44] - As of April 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; the cumulative production was 2.947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [48][52] - As of April 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35% [57] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 12, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week [59] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5896 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [63][66] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales volume was 87,667, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [71] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 57.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 7.87% [74][80] Inventory - Side Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 193,070 tons, 460 tons less than last week [88] - As of June 8, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.275 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 762,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 513,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [88] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons or 0.67% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 0.54% [88] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, but recent weather in the main producing areas has affected rubber tapping, and rubber imports have increased significantly [89] - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises rebounded slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The all - steel tire inventory decreased, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The automobile market showed good performance in May, with a significant increase in export growth, while heavy - truck sales were average [89] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [89] 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, it is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, and key factors need to be closely monitored [90] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range - bound operations [9][91]

摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 0.44%。 基本面：据中钢协数据，6 月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业 共生产粗钢 2159 万吨，平均日产 215.9 万吨，日产环比增 长 3.2%。据我的钢铁网数据，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.41%， 环比减少 0.15%，同比增加 1.36%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.58%，环比减少 0.07%，同比增加 1.05%；钢厂盈利率 58.44%，环比减少 0.43%，同比增加 8.66%；日均铁水产量 241.61 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢产量、厂库连续第三周减少，社 库连续第十四周减少，表需连续第二周减少。目前进入需求 淡季，钢材供需双双走弱，钢价中期预计以震荡为主。 交易策略：建议观望 螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观 ...

研究报告 铝周报 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 美国最新经济数据显示，通胀压力比预期缓和，而劳动力市 场却可能正在恶化，美联储降息预期升温。国家统计局数据显示， 2025 年 5 月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降 0.1%，全国居民消费 价格环比下降 0.2%。2025 年 5 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同 比下降 3.3%，环比下降 0.4%。氧化铝企业开工率小幅上升，氧化 铝库存逐步回升，但仍然处于低位。电解铝产能延续缓慢增长趋 势。沪铝库存加速下降，库存水平处于近年来极低位。LME 铝库 存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小幅下降。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 中国 CPI 指数环比下降，沪铝或震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: Volatility Narrowing and the Stalemate between Long and Short Positions [1] - Report Author: Investment Consulting Department of Hualong Futures - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Financial Sector Researcher: Deng Xiayu [4] Group 2: Market Review - IF2506 closed at 3855.4 points, up 33.0 points or 0.86% from the previous week [4] - IH2506 closed at 2673.6 points, up 6.4 points or 0.24% from the previous week [4] - IC2506 closed at 5725.4 points, up 97.6 points or 1.73% from the previous week [4] - IM2506 closed at 6100.2 points, up 134.2 points or 2.25% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 8, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 29.11 times, with a quantile of 68.63% and a PB of 1.8 times [9] - The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, with a quantile of 74.9% and a PB of 1.2 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.56 times, with a quantile of 53.73% and a PB of 1.31 times [9] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.05 times, with a quantile of 60.39% and a PB of 2.09 times [9] Group 5: Other Data - Stock - Bond Yield Spread - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two calculation formulas [17] - Formula 1: Stock - bond yield spread = (1 / Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield [17] - Formula 2: Stock - bond yield spread = 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis - The A - share market showed an oscillating pattern with significant differentiation among sectors. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Indexes outperformed the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes [20] - The overall market showed a relatively strong trend, but the future upward space may be limited [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to macro - economic data, Sino - US economic and trade negotiation policies, and external market fluctuations [20]

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观利好供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13295-13800 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 13650 元/吨，当周上涨 245 点，涨幅 1.83%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格受宏观情绪提振震荡 偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，中美高层互动增强市场流动性 预期，缓解了贸易战引发的经济衰退担忧，对胶价构成短期支 撑。从基本面来看，供给方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入增 产期，供应上量预期增强，1-4 月国内橡胶进口增量明显，供给 端压力加大。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅下降 ...

螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约上涨 0.4%。 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工 率 83.56%，环比减少 0.31%，同比增加 2.06% ；日均铁水 产量 241.8 万吨，环比减少 0.11 万吨，同比增加 6.05 万吨。 上周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2862 元/吨，周 环比下调 27 元/吨，与 6 月 4 日普方坯出厂价格 2900 元/吨 相比，钢厂平均盈利 38 元/吨。 后市展望：上周黑色板块在焦煤的带动下有所止跌反 弹，螺纹产量降幅较为明显，钢材供给拐点渐行渐近，基本 面仍有待修复。钢价中期预计以震荡为主。 交易策略：建议观望 【投资评级：★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成， ...