Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The main contract of natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week with a significant overall increase. Looking ahead, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has been raised, and the macro - atmosphere remains warm. The supply side has some support, but there is still supply pressure later. The demand side performs well, and the inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. Key factors to focus on include the Fed's interest rate cut, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, and Sino - US tariff changes [8][87]. Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber fluctuated between 15,720 - 16,370 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a significant overall increase. As of the close on September 5, 2025, it closed at 16,325 yuan/ton, rising 465 points or 2.93% for the week [16]. Spot Price - As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 20,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [20]. - As of September 5, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,180 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis expanded slightly last week. As of September 5, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of September 5, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased significantly compared with last week [30]. Important Market Information - US economic data: The US August non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000. The June non - farm payrolls were revised down from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000. The August unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 0, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 88.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 11.7%. The August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly but was still below the boom - bust line, and the ISM services PMI index showed the fastest expansion in six months [31]. - Eurozone and China economic data: The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. China's August official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI all increased slightly month - on - month. The real estate market had a decline in land market volume and price in August. The sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises from January to August decreased by 13.3% year - on - year [34]. - Rubber - related data: From January to July 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber increased by 35.01% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports of mixed rubber increased by 12.47%. The cumulative imports of natural and mixed rubber increased by 21.92%. In July, China's rubber tire outer tire production decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, and from January to July, it increased by 0.7% year - on - year [36]. Supply - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main rubber - producing area increased significantly from the previous month, while the production in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major rubber - producing countries in July 2025 was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% from the previous month [38]. - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [43][47][51]. Demand - side Situation - As of September 4, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 67.47%, down 5.3% from last week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 59.78%, down 4.06% from last week [54]. - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%. The monthly sales were 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26%. The monthly production of tire outer tires was 94.364 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [58][61][67][70][74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 5, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 162,230 tons, a decrease of 16,410 tons from last week. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons or 0.5%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 1.1% month - on - month. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 602,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% [84]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season of global natural rubber, recent weather in Southeast Asian and domestic producing areas has restricted rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% month - on - month and decreased by 1.91% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 21.82% year - on - year, with a lower growth rate than in previous years [85]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises decreased significantly. All - steel tire enterprises had normal shipments and low inventory levels. Semi - steel tire exports to the EU slowed down. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and the heavy - duty truck market had a year - on - year increase in sales. The monthly production of tire outer tires decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production from January to July increased slightly. The tire export volume in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the cumulative export from January to July also increased year - on - year [86]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly month - on - month [86]. 后市展望 - Similar to the core view, the market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily wait and see [10][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The soda ash market is expected to continue its oscillating bottoming pattern. Despite short - term boosts from supply contraction and inventory reduction, the key lies in whether the demand side can improve continuously. If the downstream glass market remains sluggish, the rebound space of soda ash prices will be limited. The market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the core contradiction being the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction persistence, downstream demand recovery, and potential production cuts due to industry losses. Operation suggestions include looking for short - term oversold rebound opportunities in single - side trading, considering the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage strategy, and using a bear spread strategy for option hedging [9][40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated narrowly between 1255 - 1311 yuan/ton. As of September 5, 2025, the main contract rose 6 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.46%, closing at 1302 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2基本面分析 - **Supply**: As of September 4, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons (4.55%). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,800 tons (0.15%). Light soda ash inventory was 750,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.0719 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4,200 tons) [8]. 3.3纯碱供需情况 - **Output and Capacity Analysis**: As of September 4, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons (4.55%). Light soda ash output was 340,500 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4,700 tons), and heavy soda ash output was 411,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.40% (a month - on - month increase of 2.33%), and the combined - soda process capacity utilization rate was 79.36% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.01%). The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 87.47%, a month - on - month increase of 6.72% [10][12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,800 tons (0.15%). Light soda ash inventory was 750,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.0719 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4,200 tons) [14]. - **Shipment Analysis**: This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 797,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.56%. The overall shipment rate was 106.04%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Some enterprises had good shipments, leading to a decline in inventory [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of September 4, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 37.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.10 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 28 yuan/ton [20][24]. 3.4下游产业情况 - **Float Glass Industry**: As of September 4, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 28th. The weekly output from August 29 to September 4 was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.95%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 484,000 heavy boxes (0.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [28][31]. 3.5现货市场情况 The prices of various products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton (1.42%); the price of well - mine salt in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton (3.57%); the price of light soda ash in North China decreased by 50 yuan/ton (3.7%); the price of float glass increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.43%); the price of 2.0 photovoltaic glass increased by 2 yuan/square meter (18.18%); etc. [37][39]. 3.6综合分析 The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating. The supply - side pressure reappeared, and production and capacity utilization increased. The total inventory of producers decreased slightly but was still at a high level, especially the light soda ash inventory continued to accumulate. The demand was weak, with downstream industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis. The profit situation worsened, and both the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process were in deep losses. In the short - term, the market is expected to continue oscillating. Operation suggestions include short - term single - side trading, 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage, and using a bear spread strategy for option hedging [40].

研究报告 螺纹周报 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2601 合约下跌 1.01%。 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 8 日星期一 基本面：据中钢协数据，8 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生 产粗钢 2141 万吨，平均日产 194.7 万吨，日产环比下降 8.0%； 生铁 2010 万吨，平均日产 182.7 万吨，日产环比下降 5.1%；钢 材 2352 万吨，平均日产 213.8 万吨，日产环比增长 4.4%。Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 80.4%，环比减少 2.8%，同比增加 2.77%；钢厂盈利率 61.04%，环比减少 2.60%，同比增加 56.71%； 日均铁水产量 228.84 万吨，环比减少 11.29 万吨，同比增加 6.23 万吨。 后市展望：上周五市场反内卷传言，刺激黑色大福反弹， 短期钢价下方空间逐渐有限，"金九银十"需求或有所修复， 钢价或有反弹可能。 操作建议： 单边：建议关注 3100 元/吨支撑轻仓试多 套利：观望 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger market, with small price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from 77,950 yuan/ton to 79,840 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,575 - 9,914 US dollars/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - **Fed Rate Cut Imminent**: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting on September 16 - 17, 2025, and expects further rate cuts in the next three to six months. As of August 29, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is 86.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 13.8% [2][12][33]. - **Narrowed Decline in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size**: From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, with the decline narrowing. Profits in different industries showed different trends [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Decrease in Refined Copper Production Month - on - Month**: As of July 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14%. As of August 22, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.14 cents/pound, and the smelting fee was - 41.32 US dollars/kiloton [16]. - **Reduction in the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper**: As of August 29, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaom was 79,355 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the price difference was - 780 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Month - on - Month Decline in Copper Product Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [24]. 3.5 Inventory Side - **Continuous Inventory Accumulation of COMEX Copper**: As of August 29, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 79,748 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,950 tons, an increase of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 8.26%. The COMEX copper inventory was 275,226 tons, an increase of 1,459 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 83,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Outlook - **Analysis of Price Trend Factors**: Key factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc. Among them, Chinese economic policies, US policies, and supply - side refined copper processing fees have a relatively large impact [32]. - **Market Outlook**: Considering various factors, copper prices may mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger market, with small price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market showed active trading last week with a convergence in the discount of index futures, indicating optimistic market expectations. In the short - term, the market may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Policy expectations and improved economic data support the market, but valuation pressures are emerging. Investors are advised to focus on market structural changes, seize sector rotation opportunities, and control positions to prevent short - term adjustment risks [28]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - On August 29, A - share major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3857.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.99% to 12696.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 2890.13 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 27983 billion yuan, a decrease of 1725 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Battery, insurance, and other sectors led the gains, while education, semiconductor, etc. declined [5]. - Last week, domestic stock index futures strengthened. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were +3.01%, +1.73%, +3.09%, and +0.64% respectively [5]. - Last week, treasury bond futures rose. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.56%, 0.14%, 0.14%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The CSRC held a symposium, emphasizing the consolidation of the capital market's recovery, promoting reform and opening - up, and advocating long - term, value, and rational investment [7]. - As of August 29, 5299 A - share companies disclosed their 2025 semi - annual reports, with 4085 companies having positive net profits, accounting for 77.09%. 643 companies had a year - on - year net profit growth rate of over 100% [7]. - From August 27 - 29, Chinese official visited the US to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations, emphasizing cooperation and dialogue [7]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations, with a net withdrawal of 4039 billion yuan. This week, 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 10000 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature [8]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of August 29, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are presented. For example, the CSI 300 index has a PE of 14.15 times, a percentile of 86.86%, and a PB of 1.48 times [12]. - The report explains the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread [23]. 3.4 China - Buffett Indicator On August 29, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 86.95%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 86.46%, and in the past 10 - year data was 90.36% [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The market last week was characterized by active trading and a convergence in index futures discounts. In the short - term, the market may enter a high - level consolidation phase [28]. - Operation suggestions include: for single - side trading, buy on dips while being wary of valuation risks; for arbitrage, participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy and watch for style - switching signals; for options, use covered calls to increase returns or buy put options to hedge volatility risks [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market presented a pattern of significant supply - side pressure, marginal improvement but insufficient resilience on the demand side, and weak cost support, resulting in overall market pressure [6][7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season for methanol is approaching, but currently, the downstream demand has not significantly increased. Most devices are still in a state of loss and low operation, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The market may still show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September, with port inventories expected to continue increasing and prices facing certain downward pressure [8]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of methanol still show strong supply and weak demand, and methanol prices are likely to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,348 yuan/ton, a 1.55% drop from the previous week [6][13]. - In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased significantly, and the port market was under pressure to decline. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,220 - 2,320 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,240 - 2,300 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also decreased due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the impact of low - priced Xinjiang goods [13]. Methanol Fundamental Analysis Production - From August 22 - 28, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,918,285 tons, an increase of 24,290 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The recovery volume was greater than the loss volume [15]. Downstream Demand - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry's starting rate increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 61.94%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [18][19]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 333,400 tons, a 22,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 7.27% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 217,000 tons, a 9,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.64% increase [21]. - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,299,300 tons, a 223,300 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.75% increase. Ports in different regions all had inventory accumulations [23]. Profit - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production increased, while the profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol production weakened. Gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 82.10 yuan/ton, a 44.54% increase from the previous week [25]. Methanol Trend Outlook Supply - This week, the resumption of domestic methanol devices may continue to exceed the number of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production this week will be about 1.9762 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.40%, an increase from last week [32]. Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's starting rate will continue to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; and the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase slightly [33][34]. Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. Port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - Overall, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains weak, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. In the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 20,580 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,950 yuan/ton [9] 2.宏观面 - In August, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [13][15] 3.供需情况 - As of August 28, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. In July, the monthly output of aluminum products was 216940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [19][23] 4.库存情况 - As of August 29, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,596 tons, an increase of 991 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 481,050 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.56%. As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 567,000 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous day [28] 5.宏观面、基本面分析 - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, alumina production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of alumina enterprises continued to rise. The import volume of bauxite increased rapidly month - on - month, approaching the high in April. The production of aluminum products decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production of aluminum alloy decreased month - on - month. The Shanghai aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years [36] 6.后市展望 - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In August, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened significantly. The market sentiment continued to improve under policy expectations and capital promotion, with small and medium - cap varieties outperforming weight - based contracts. The economic fundamentals showed structural improvement. In the short term, the market may enter a high - level shock stage, and the mid - term trend is still optimistic, but attention should be paid to volume changes and policy implementation results. [5][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened significantly. IC and IM outperformed IF and IH. The monthly increase rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 11.24%, 7.50%, 14.47%, and 12.87% respectively. [5] - In the bond market, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell. [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. [7] - In August, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand. [10] - In August, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities accelerated. [15] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of August 29, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 index were 14.15 times, 86.86%, and 1.48 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 index were 11.94 times, 92.16%, and 1.31 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 index were 33.33 times, 78.82%, and 2.24 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 index were 46.87 times, 73.53%, and 2.50 times respectively. [18] 3.4 Other Data - The quantile of the current "total market value/GDP" in historical data was 86.46%, and the quantile in the past 10 - year data on August 29, 2025, was 86.95%. [28] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In August, the stock index futures market continued to be strong, with significant increases in all major contracts. Small and medium - cap varieties outperformed weight - based contracts, and the technology - growth style dominated. The capital side remained loose, and the northbound funds continued to flow in. The economic fundamentals showed structural improvement. [29] - In the short term, the market may enter a high - level shock stage, and the mid - term trend is still optimistic, but attention should be paid to volume changes and policy implementation results. [29] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Buy on dips, but beware of valuation risks. - Arbitrage: Participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy periodically and pay attention to style - switching signals. - Options: Use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks. [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a slightly upward trend last week. Looking ahead, the macro - environment remains warm due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, supply is supported by rainfall affecting rubber tapping, but there is supply pressure later. Demand is fair, and inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected that the futures market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][87]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fluctuated between 15,650 - 16,160 yuan/ton, showing a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. As of August 29, 2025, it closed at 15,860 yuan/ton, up 235 points or 1.5% for the week [13]. (2) Spot Price - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][21]. (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference, the basis narrowed slightly last week. As of August 29, 2025, the basis was - 960 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than last week. The domestic price of natural rubber rose slightly last week, while the overseas price fell slightly [26][29]. 2. Important Market Information - Multiple important economic and trade events were reported, including the US Fed's interest - rate - related statements, US economic data (such as GDP, PCE, unemployment claims), EU - US tariff negotiations, China's economic data (such as industrial added - value, industrial profits, logistics volume), and industry - related data (such as automobile, tire production and sales) [30][31][32]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the total production of major natural rubber - producing countries was 835,400 tons, an increase of 15.6% from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [40][45][49]. 4. Demand - side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 94.364 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [55][59][62]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 29, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week. As of August 24, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%; the total inventory in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [84]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season, rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas affects rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% month - on - month and decreased by 1.91% year - on - year, with cumulative imports from January - July increasing by 21.82% year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than in previous years. - Demand: The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly last week. The semi - steel tire market has sufficient inventory and is actively selling; the all - steel tire market has average sales, and downstream customers mainly replenish inventory regularly. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last week, while China's social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly [86]. 7.后市展望 - The price of the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to watch include the meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the Fed's interest - rate cut, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, and Sino - US tariff changes [87]. 8.观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. - Operating strategy: Consider going long on dips for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and options trading for now [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55%. The iron ore spot has been fluctuating recently. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: In August 2025, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 3.55% [10] 2. Important Market Information - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities, and improve the real - estate development model [17]. - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [17]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of July 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 104.62 million tons, a decrease of 1.33 million tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $91.41 per ton, a decrease of $1.47 per ton from the previous month [22]. - As of June 2025, the iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 71.156 million tons, an increase of 2.908 million tons from the previous month, and that from Brazil was 27.158 million tons, a decrease of 889,000 tons from the first half of the month [25]. 4. Demand - side Situation - Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 192,400 tons year - on - year [29]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the iron ore spot has been fluctuating. Last week, global shipments declined slightly, and port inventories decreased marginally. Due to blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan and sintering machine production restrictions in Shandong, demand decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore will maintain a fluctuating trend with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The supply is stable. Blast furnace maintenance in steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas is clear, and other regional steel enterprises are also undergoing maintenance. Next week, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by over 40,000 tons, but the impact time is limited. After next week, iron ore demand will return to a high level, and port inventory accumulation is not obvious. There is a multi - empty game in downstream steel, but the medium - and long - term macro narrative is still upward. Attention should continue to be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5][35]. - According to Mysteel, last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 821,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1864 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 98, an increase of 6. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.8802 million tons, a decrease of 561,800 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3414 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.3031 million tons, a decrease of 1.2872 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.2676 million tons, an increase of 598,700 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 92.2802 million tons, an increase of 146,900 tons; the inventory of coarse powder was 112.9016 million tons, an increase of 424,100 tons; the inventory of lump ore was 16.689 million tons, a decrease of 971,100 tons; the inventory of concentrate powder was 11.3859 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons; the inventory of pellets was 2.9037 million tons, a decrease of 238,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 101, an increase of 4 [36]. 6. Market Outlook - According to Mysteel, the average price of iron ore in August was $101.2 per ton. The decline in iron ore supply is greater than that in demand. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly to 33.158 million tons month - on - month, still at a relatively high level, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.92 million tons this year. On the demand side, hot metal production declined slightly and remained at a medium - high level. In terms of inventory, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased by 561,800 tons month - on - month and is currently at 144 million tons. In August, with the decline in market sentiment, the black sector generally fluctuated and corrected, and iron ore fluctuated. In September, the black sector enters the peak season. The recovery of downstream demand may support the black sector to stabilize and rebound, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [6][38]. 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Opportunistically sell deep out - of - the - money put options [39]