研究报告 铅周报 沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16820 元/吨附近至 17085 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大，但仍处于合理区间。 全球精炼铅矿山产量同比增长、环比下降，全球铅供需仍然处于 小幅过剩状态。铅加工费从底部逐步回升，回升幅度缩小。中国 汽车产量继续增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。沪铅库存大幅下降， 库存水平处于近年来高位。LME 铅库存小幅下降，库存水平处于 近年来高位。 【后市展望】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term negative factors have been gradually digested, market sentiment has improved, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. Recently, steel prices have shown signs of stabilizing and fluctuating. The rb2510 contract should be treated as a short - term stable, fluctuating rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the gap in early April [2][5][32][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - As of April 27, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [9] Important Market Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized on April 25 to implement more proactive macro - policies, use fiscal and monetary policies, and improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy. PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, with a stable financial system and resilient financial markets [13] Supply - side Situation - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77% month - on - month and 4.60% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 6.07% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, up 2.60% month - on - month and 6.93% year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, up 4.23 million tons month - on - month and 15.63 million tons year - on - year [5][30] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 53.4, up 0.7% month - on - month; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 52.6, up 3.3% month - on - month [16] Inventory - side Situation - Last week, the rebar mill inventory and output decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory decreased for the seventh consecutive week [32] Fundamental Analysis - Vale's CFO expects iron ore prices to stabilize at $100/ton. The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi, it was 15 yuan/ton. China Iron and Steel Association's Luo Tiejun said production cuts are a consensus. The total inventory of imported iron ore of national steel mills was 9.07303 billion tons, up 20.11 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore was 301.39 million tons, up 3.29 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, down 0.27 days week - on - week. On April 25, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [30][31] 后市展望 - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar changed from increasing to decreasing, mill inventory and output decreased for the second consecutive week, and social inventory decreased for the seventh consecutive week. Market sentiment improved significantly, the expectation of steel mill production cuts increased, and steel prices showed signs of stabilizing and fluctuating [32] Operation Strategy - Treat the rb2510 contract as a short - term stable, fluctuating rebound, and pay attention to whether it can fill the gap in early April [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the reduction of macro - shocks, the oil and fat market has returned to fundamental trading. The loosening of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs has improved the sentiment of the oil and oilseed sector. Coupled with the recovery of crude oil prices from a low level, palm oil has stopped falling. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely [8][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Abstract - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and rebounded. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.99% to close at 7,934 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.00% to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 3.09% to close at 9,506 yuan/ton [5][31]. - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 19.88%, and Malaysian palm oil rose 2.08%. As of the week of April 22, about 21% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 23% in the previous week and 20% in the same period last year. US soybeans rose 1.19% this week [6][7][31]. - The domestic prices of the three major oils are likely to fluctuate widely. The inventory of the three major edible oils in China has decreased, and the soybean oil inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in many years due to low soybean crushing volume. The palm oil inventory in the producing areas is expected to stop falling and start to rise, and the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel limits the increase in palm oil prices. The rapeseed oil fundamentals are relatively stable and unable to break the current sideways consolidation state [8][32]. b. Spot Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,470 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared with the past five years [9]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [10]. - As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - As of April 18, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 69,000 tons to 730,000 tons. On April 23, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 364,000 tons [16]. - As of April 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,567,690 tons [19]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [22]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [23]. - As of April 25, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [25]. d. Comprehensive Analysis - The content of the comprehensive analysis is basically the same as that in the abstract, including the price changes of futures contracts, production and drought information, and the outlook for the oil and fat market [31][32].

研究报告 甲醇周报 宏观面或有转机，未来关注供给 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 上周由于内地多套装置停车检修，内地甲醇现货涨幅较大， 但是市场对甲醇未来供需偏弱的预期仍未实质性改变，甲醇港 口价格依旧下跌，甲醇期货跟随港口甲醇价格，总体呈现下跌， 截至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2288 元/吨，较上周下跌 2.56%。 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 一、甲醇走势回顾 甲醇期货加权走势图 部分区域甲醇价格对比图（元/吨） 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇企业检修多于复产，甲醇供给再次下降。 需求方面，上周甲醇下游烯烃产能利用率有较为明显的下降， 或预示甲醇未来需求可能缩减。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产 企业库存小幅下降，港口样本库存小幅上升。利润方面，上周 甲醇生产企业利润总体回升，尤其是内蒙、山东煤制甲醇利 ...

研究报告 股指周报 市场逐渐进入平稳 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 上周 IF2505 报收于 3737.0 点，相较前一周 上涨 19.6 点，涨幅 0.53%。IH2505 报收于 2643.8 点，相较前一周上涨 36.8 点，涨幅 1.41%。IC2505 报收于 5481.2 点，相较前一周下 14.2 点，跌幅 0.26%。IM2505 报收于 5738.2 点，相较前一周下 跌 25.0 点，跌幅 0.43%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 研究报告 （一）、基本面分析 1、3 月份，社会消费品零售总额 40940 ...

研究报告 铜周报 沪铜价格或宽幅震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 特朗普政府与美联储的争执升级，美国总统特朗普再度对美 国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔施压，要求美联储立即降息。特朗 普政府昨晚宣布，美方将对中国建造或运营的船只停靠美国港口 征收额外的费用。一季度国内生产总值 318758 亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长 5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长 1.2%。铜价受宏观 面影响依然较大，投资者应关注美国政府及美联储的态度转变。 精炼铜产量保持增长，铜消费仍然强劲，供应处于短缺状况。终 端消费增长预期仍一定程度支撑铜价。沪铜库存继续下降，库存 水平处于近年来较低位。LME 铜库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小 幅下降。 【后市展望】 铜价或以宽幅震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情 ...

螺纹周报 研究报告 市场心态仍然偏弱，钢价低位震荡 摘要： 华龙期货投资咨询部 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.6% 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.56%， 环比增加 0.28%，同比增加 4.70%；钢厂盈利率 54.98%，环比增加 1.30%， 同比增加 6.50%；日均铁水产量 240.12 万吨，环比减少 0.10 万吨。上周 螺纹钢周度产量 229.22 万吨，环比下降 3.15 万吨，钢厂库存 200.4 万吨， 环比下降 14.26 万吨，社会库存 532.76 万吨，环比下降 30.34 万吨，钢材 五大品种周度产量 872.71 万吨，环比上升 1.65 万吨，库存合计 1584.68 万吨，环比下降 75.93 万吨，表观需求 948.64，环比上升 48.1 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢表需连续第九周增加，厂 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 市场逐步走稳，油脂震荡整理 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | | | 电话：13609351809 | | | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 04 21 | 月 | 星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡整理，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 0.31%， 以 7704 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约下跌 0.78%以 8132 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约下跌 1.42%，以 9221 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：独立检验公司 AmSpec Agri 发布的数据显示，马 来西亚 4 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 450657 吨，较上月同期出口 增加 53792 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观偏弱供需宽松，胶价维持震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：张正卯 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14510-15195 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格在周一冲高回落之后维持偏弱运行， 总体小幅下跌。 综上所述，在宏观情绪偏空，同时基本面仍然偏弱的情况 下，预计胶价短期内维持震荡偏弱运行，但是下方空间有限， 可逢低考虑轻仓试多。 后续重点关注宏观面和政策面的影响、主产区天气变化情 况、国内外主产区割胶情况、橡胶进口情况、需求变化情况和 库存变化情况。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约短期内或将维持震荡偏弱运 行，但是下方空间有限。 操作上，建议暂时观望为主，激进投资者可考虑逢低择机 轻仓试多。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确 ...

宏观面呈现高度不确定性，建议短线操作 研究报告 甲醇周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周宏观面受美国加征关税影响，甲醇期货大幅波动，截 至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权较上周下跌 3.29%，报收 2348 元/ 吨。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇企业复产多于检修，甲醇供给继续增加。 需求方面，上周甲醇下游产能利用率总体平稳，甲醇样本生产 企业待发订单量再次上升，显示甲醇需求仍然平稳。综合来看， 目前甲醇供需依然偏弱，但是压力不大。上周甲醇样本生产企 业库存再次小幅上升，港口样本库存继续下降。利润方面，上 周甲醇生产企业利润继续下降，但是利润仍较为可观，生产企 业多积极调整价格出货。 【后市展望】 基本面方面：下周由于复产多于检修，甲醇供给或继续增 量，需求方面：预计甲醇下游需求仍延续平稳态势。库存方面： 下周甲醇生产企业库存预计小幅上升，港口库存预计 ...